Monday miscellany: youth polling, preselections, Werribee by-election latest (open thread)

A late vacancy arises in a safe Labor seat, expectations management sets in ahead of Saturday’s Victorian by-elections, and more besides.

The campaign for the Western Australian election on March 8 formally commences this week with the issuing of the writs, there are two interesting Victorian state by-elections on Saturday (more on one of them below), and there will shortly be a New South Wales state by-election to contend with in Port Macquarie following retirement announcement from Nationals-turned-Liberal member Leslie Williams. That’s to say nothing of the small matter of a looming federal election, for which April 12 is generally considered the most likely date, particularly after last week’s inflation numbers shortened the odds on an interest rate cut later this month.

Also of note:

• The Financial Review this week had polling data for the 18-to-34 cohort broken down by gender, combined from Freshwater Strategy’s monthly polling in November, December and January. Presumably inspired by the stark divide in voting and ideology that’s opened up between young men and women in the United States, the results find the phenomenon to be relatively subdued here: the big difference was that support for the Greens was at 32% among young women and 20% among young men, with both major parties scoring higher among men (Labor 36%, Coalition 32%) than women (Labor 32%, Coalition 25%). Kos Samaras of RedBridge Group calculates two-party Labor leads of 67-33 among the women and 59-41 among the men. Anthony Albanese led Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister by 58-27 among the women and 55-37 among the men, but both leaders scored much worse among women than men on net approval.

• 7News has a new election prediction model, in which political science academics Simon Jackman and Luke Mansillo were involved. Mansillo was also involved in The Guardian’s tracker, but this one is quite different: whereas The Guardian’s model goes far beyond any poll result in crediting the Coalition with a commanding 53.1-46.9 lead, the 7News model has it at 51-49. Mansillo is quoted saying the mode leans just slightly in favour of Labor forming government because of an inefficiently distributed Coalition swing, leaving them set to run up margins in already safe rural and regional seats.

• Labor’s Stephen Jones announced last week that he will not seek re-election in his Illawarra region seat of Whitlam. Ronald Mizen of the Financial Review reports the only known contender for Labor preselection is Keely O’Brien, general manger of corporate affairs for the Council of Australian Life Insurers. However, O’Brien is of the Right and the consensus appears to be that the Right will not formally oppose the national executive ratifying the nominee of Jones’s own Left faction. The report further relates that an informal deal reserves Whitlam to the Left and the state seat of Shoalhaven to the Right, but some consider the Right is owed a seat after Anthony Albanese imposed Ashvini Ambihaipahar of the Left in Barton.

• The South Australian Liberal Party has chosen Leah Blyth, education executive and state party president, to fill the Senate vacancy created by Simon Birmingham’s retirement, replacing a moderate with a conservative. Brad Crouch of The Advertiser reports Blyth won the party ballot with 119 votes to 71 for lawyer Sam Hooper and 11 for Adelaide councillor Henry Davis. As Birmingham was re-elected in 2022, Blyth will not be required to contest the coming election.

• A party vote to disendorse Jacob Vadakkedathu as the Liberals’ Australian Capital Territory Senate candidate over branch stacking allegations was defeated on Saturday. X account Preselection Updates relates the margin was 109 votes to 74.

• Patrick Durkin of the Financial Review (no link available at present) reports Labor polling shows Saturday’s by-election in Werribee “could be as close as 48-52” in favour of the government, suggesting a 9% Liberal swing. However, Liberals “denied the race was that close” and said a 5% swing would be a good result. Chip Le Grand of The Age also cites a Liberal source talking down the party’s chances by citing a “missed opportunity” to win over the local Indian community by preselecting local businessman Rajan Chopra, instead choosing 63-year-old real estate agent Steve Murphy.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,574 comments on “Monday miscellany: youth polling, preselections, Werribee by-election latest (open thread)”

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  1. Andrew_Earlwood from last night.

    I knew my comments about PJK would bring me a serve from you: it’s as predictable as the weather in Dubai.

    If wanting to see a vibrant, democratic and increasingly progressive society of about the same size as Australia (population-wise) continue to flourish rather than be ground down under the tyrant’s boot makes me a Tory, then I’m proud to be a Tory.

    Likewise, if refusing to see anything good in Donald Trump’s dictator-loving approach to foreign policy makes me a Tory, then I’m proud to be a Tory.

    The way PJK talks about these issues (and sometimes you too) has a strong element in it of “I like to talk about realpolitik issues in a tough way because I’m so macho. I don’t want to hear any of this girly-man nonsense about human rights and the like. That stuff just isn’t in Australia’s national interests.”

    Realpolitik. That was what Neville Chamberlain was practicing at Munich, wasn’t it? If I’m going to be a Tory, I won’t be that type of one. I think I rather prefer the PM who came next.

  2. On matters “W”

    Werribee will be a very interesting by-election. If the Labor doomsday scenario in Victoria is a thing, then I think the Libs have to win it or at the very least come very close.

    Whitlam Preselection – who is the pea? It should be Misha Zelinsky who is from the Illawarra (who achieved a lot of media coverage being in Kiev when the Russians invaded and has had a Fulbright) but wrong faction. Presumably the curtain will be opened to reveal the lucky winner this week.

  3. This deserves repeating from last night:

    Steve777 @ #1747 Sunday, February 2nd, 2025 – 11:07 pm

    ”So Dutton says lnp will hit the ground running with cuts after election but can’t say where the cuts will be. Seems to be a disconnect there.”

    He won’t tell us because the cuts will be as popular as a sneeze in a lift.

    Anyway, has anyone asked the Thug why we need to cut public services? The whole thing seems to relate to tropes that might have rung true in the distant past but after 50 years of neoliberal “reform” and periodic bouts of austerity, what’s left?

    That’s right, the Right’s big supporters and bankrollers don’t want to pay tax and, unless they can write the regulations, don’t want to be regulated.

    Abso-bleeding-lutely!

    Though I would have said the Dud’s cuts would be as popular as a fart in a lift. 😀

  4. You’re not a Tory, meher baba. Andrew_Earlwood is, how can I say this euphemistically, a Prosecuting lawyer…who turns into a girly man when his income is threatened (I remember, don’t you?) Hence, a paper tiger. Which is how I mentally adjusted to him intimidating me. 🙂

  5. Ah, the Liberals, always missing the latest power dynamic for the old paradigm 😀

    Chip Le Grand of The Age also cites a Liberal source talking down the party’s chances by citing a “missed opportunity” to win over the local Indian community by preselecting local businessman Rajan Chopra, instead choosing 63-year-old real estate agent Steve Murphy.

  6. I would put this in the Dawn Patrol but it’s too long and you need to read all of it:

    Now that the tennis is done and hostilities have been suspended in the Australia Day culture war, it’s time for the year to begin in earnest.

    That also means it’s time for the true start of the conservative social calendar – former prime minister Tony Abbott’s annual “back to work” drinks, hosted at his taxpayer-funded office in the MLC Centre at Martin Place.

    The Liberals have plenty of work to do in the early half of 2025 with a federal election looming, but thanks to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s dismal recent performance, the mood at Abbott HQ was veritably “buoyant”, one guest told CBD.

    Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, the man largely responsible for that buoyant mood, was guest of honour on the night alongside his wife Kirilly.

    The guest list was completed by a who’s who of the Liberal Party’s right wing and relics from Abbott’s brief time in The Lodge. Former Liberal federal director Brian Loughnane (aka “Mr Peta Credlin”) was there, along with former ABC chair and Abbott’s old business advisor Maurice Newman.

    Colourful Sydney criminal barrister Margaret Cunneen and vitamin mogul-cum-conservative donor Marcus Blackmore were also spotted. Fresh from losing yet another preselection contest, anti-voice campaigner Nyunggai Warren Mundine showed up, along with his father-in-law, superannuated conservative pundit Gerard Henderson. From Macquarie Street – state Liberal MPs James Griffin, Damien Tudehope and Alister Henskens.

    By CBD’s rough calculations, Abbott’s office space, with views over Sydney Harbour, costs the taxpayer around $6500 a week to maintain, one of the many handy perks afforded to former prime ministers. We’re glad to see it’s being put to good use.

    https://www.smh.com.au/cbd/behind-the-scenes-at-tony-abbott-s-buoyant-summer-party-20250202-p5l8xj.html

    ‘Pride cometh before a fall’?

  7. Blackburnpseph @ #1752 Monday, February 3rd, 2025 – 12:39 am

    Kirsdarke
    You keep saying the Canadian Liberals are back in the game. How can you say this? 338 Canada predictions over the last few weeks have the Canadian Tories going from 236 to 238 to 235. The Liberal midpoint being currently 44. Definitely not back in the game.

    EKOS has recorded a major swing to the Liberals over the past month.

    https://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2025/01/major-and-straight-line-decline-in-conservative-advantage-over-past-month/

    Of course it’s only the one poll, and it’s not quite so evident in the others, but Liberals going up 13 points and the Conservatives going down 7 points in 1 month is a pretty significant shift. We’ll have to see how other polls go over there over the next few weeks. Especially with yesterday’s tariff events.

  8. Both W@rC@t and ToryMeher relying upon machismo now to justify the long con of making Taiwan a pawn for America’s geopolitical interests.

    The thing that shits me most about ‘human rights’? Them being weaponised for nothing more than grubby self interest: behold America.

    My working life has been 100% about the actual practical application of human rights: whether it be fighting for safety and better wages as a unionist, making the concept of a ‘fair trial’ a reality rather than a mere abstract as defence counsel or ensuring that victims of crime and vulnerable witnesses have their voices heard as a prosecutor. So I have a pretty good nose for bullshit when it comes to folk who bloviate about ‘human rights’ and frankly America is setting up the people of Taiwan to be thrown under the bus and yet you two fuckwits are cheering. Tory mind virus? For meher, definitely, but y’all got the china phobic mind virus in full on fever dream mode.

    And c@t do you really think I was being a ‘girly man’ when L’twit was threatening to dob me in to the legal services commissioner over his obvious butt hurt? Really?

  9. I think in all fairness that from this moment onward any names or monikers held by the poster known as earlwood be considered null and void and be replaced by the sobriquet ‘girly man’.

  10. “ Realpolitik. That was what Neville Chamberlain was practicing at Munich, wasn’t it? If I’m going to be a Tory, I won’t be that type of one. I think I rather prefer the PM who came next.”

    ______

    No. What chamberlain was trying to do was superintend the affairs of Central Europe from a position of complete impotency. Just like Churchill in 1945 when he allowed Stalin get his way in Poland. Only Churchill understood the impotency of his position, whereas chamberlain only knew that Britain wasn’t ready for an expeditionary war in Europe and wouldn’t be for another 18 months of rearmament (which incidentally HE was responsible for starting back in 1935 as Chancellor – and over the opposition of most of the political class – both within his party and more generally).

    Anyone who runs the ‘appeasement’ line is a loser on the actual arguments at hand. It a modern day version of Godwin’s law.

  11. Good morning, all.

    IMO, there is something of a false binary built into Bludger discussions on Taiwan.

    Of course it is in Australia’s interests that democracies such as those in the Philippines, Greenland, Canada, Ukraine and Panama continue to flourish. They are all flawed. They are all better than autocracies.

    Of course US motivations in relation to all those countries is germane.

    Of course the purported and real reasons for invasion differ.

    Of course the particular historical and current circumstances of those jurisdictions are germane.

    The real issue is how much it is in our national interest for those democracies to survive.

    The real substantive questions is what practical difference we can make in each case.

    Further, and IMO by far the most important and urgent issue, is whether tying ourselves to the US via ANZUS makes any sense any longer at all. Our ally is threatening war against four separate democracies ATM.

    De facto we are in the totally illogical position of being tied to a democracy hating ally which would have zero compunction about leaving us to our fate were we to be invaded.

    We need to formalize this state of affairs. It is not in our national interest to be allied to a democracy hating country. It is not in our interest to adopt additional national risk by being allied to such a state. Yet we still need a credible national defence.

    We desperately need a national strategic conversation on how all of the above need to be transmuted into a completely new way of approaching both foreign affairs and the nature of the ADF.

    The three options are: muddling along as per now, strongly armed neutrality, or disarming according to the Greens’ ‘Light Mobile Force’.

    As for ‘girly man’, the posters who use that term should be ashamed of themselves. It is yet another brick in the wall of our society’s massive ongoing abuse of women.

  12. Australian wealth inequality is where it is because of the reign of the Great benefactor to the wealthy and his sidekick Tonto Costello, followed by ten years of LNP leaders proving themselves incapable of changing a political type and all the time pumped full of “hot air” by the posse in the overseas owned media.

    Albanese and Labor have done a tremendous job of readjusting the ballast of the good ship “the lucky country” and need the public to acknowledge their “reformation” of a sick and addicted to gambling nation. (at all levels and variations)

    What is happening in the “land of everyone’s s winner”, the disengaged have become “goggle eyed” by the bright lights of all the “hidden behind the screen” promises of the “sideshow alley” next wannabe Liberal PM.

    And as “day follows night”, the punters are lining up for a chance to purchase “the elixir of luck” by being convinced that “nuclear Peter” is to change the direction of their fortunes.

    Or will they tweak?
    The voters don’t have a good history of success!

  13. World News & Politics Patrol:
    Beijing on Sunday announced plans for retaliatory measures after the United States slapped 10 percent tariffs on Chinese imports.
    China’s ministry of commerce said in a statement that the Chinese government would file a complaint with the World Trade Organization and take unspecified “corresponding countermeasures to firmly safeguard its own rights and interests.”: https://www.politico.eu/article/china-vows-retaliation-after-donald-trump-likely-trade-war-tariffs-chinese-imports/

    Canadian PM candidate calls Trump tariffs ‘a betrayal of America’s closest friend’: https://thehill.com/policy/international/5121859-canadian-pm-candidate-calls-trump-tariffs-a-betrayal-of-americas-closest-friend/

    U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino on Sunday that the Central American ally must immediately reduce Chinese influence over the Panama Canal area or face potential retaliation from the Trump administration. Rubio, on his first foreign trip as America’s top diplomat, held face-to-face talks with Mulino, who has resisted pressure from the new U.S. government over Panama’s management of a waterway that is vital to global trade. Mulino told reporters after the meeting that Rubio made “no real threat of retaking the canal or the use of force.”: https://apnews.com/article/panama-rubio-trump-canal-mulino-illegal-immigration-f159e218e66812bc0e462d8fb8bb5b5f

    Sir Keir Starmer has opened the door to negotiations with the EU for a revamped youth visa scheme to allow greater freedom of movement for under-30s. The EU has maintained that Sir Keir is unlikely to secure a reset in relations with Brussels without an agreement that would allow 18 to 30-year-olds in the UK and EU to live, work and study in each other’s countries.
    But Labour has branded European Commission plans for an expansive youth mobility scheme as a return of “free movement for young people”. On Sunday Yvette Cooper, the Home Secretary, insisted that Labour was not in favour of such a scheme, saying that it was not the right approach or starting point for negotiations with the EU “because we need to bring net migration down”: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/02/02/keir-starmer-opens-door-eu-youth-visa-scheme/

    The Conservatives are more trusted than Labour to handle the economy after a slump in the UK’s performance since the Government took power last year, a new poll has shown.
    The survey carried out for The i Paper by BMG Research found that the Opposition had gained a slim lead on which party is backed by voters on the issues of the economy and security.
    But Labour remains in front in some other key areas including the NHS, education, housing and crime. Meanwhile Reform UK is the public’s preferred party on immigration and the Greens are favoured to tackle environmental policy: https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/voters-trust-tories-economy-labour-push-growth-3514802

    Elon Musk’s allies have gained access to a US Treasury payment system that distributes more than $6 trillion (£4.8 trillion) each year, sparking fears the Trump administration is seeking to freeze funding for welfare programmes. The system is responsible for sending social security payments, Medicare benefits and tax refunds, among others.
    The chief of Mr Musk’s newly-created Department of Government Efficiency (Doge) – a unit tasked with cutting spending, reducing the size of the federal workforce and increasing efficiency – was permitted access after the controversial ousting of a top official. Tom Krause, the Doge chief, was permitted to view details on federal payments on condition that no changes were made to them, one source told Politico: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/02/02/musk-donald-trump-doge-us-treasury-block-welfare-payments/

    President Trump on Sunday defended his decision to impose sweeping tariffs on the United States’s top three trading partners, even as he acknowledged there may be “some pain” caused by the economic fallout. Trump took to Truth Social on Sunday morning after he signed off on 25 percent tariffs on Canada, 25 percent tariffs on Mexico and 10 percent tariffs on China, which appear likely to set off a significant trade war. Trump hit back at critics and argued the decision was necessary because of “major” trade deficits with those countries. “The ‘Tariff Lobby,’ headed by the Globalist, and always wrong, Wall Street Journal, is working hard to justify Countries like Canada, Mexico, China, and too many others to name, continue the decades long RIPOFF OF AMERICA, both with regard to TRADE, CRIME, AND POISONOUS DRUGS that are allowed to so freely flow into AMERICA,” Trump posted from his Mar-a-Lago estate. “THOSE DAYS ARE OVER!”: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5121390-trump-says-potential-pain-caused-by-tariffs-worth-the-price-that-must-be-paid/

    Hedge funds have bet billions of dollars against Donald Trump’s America amid fears of a market crash. Data from Goldman Sachs show there has been a surge in “short” bets against US stocks, meaning traders will make money when they fall in value, in a sign of growing concerns about the market.
    In January, investors have placed 10 times more bets on US stocks falling than equivalent bets that shares in leading American companies would rise, the investment bank said. It suggests many traders are sitting on huge profits from the chaos earlier this week, when shares in big tech stocks slumped following a panic over the success of rival Chinese AI DeepSeek. The increase in short bets marks a major turnaround in sentiment from November, when hedge funds piled into long bets on US stocks, predicting they would rise: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/01/31/hedge-funds-bet-billions-against-trumps-america/

    For North American companies, the “wait and see” moment on tariffs is over. U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a 25% levy on goods from Canada and Mexico, along with a 10% tariff on China, in what could be the opening stages of a full-scale trade war likely to create new headaches for executives that have been wrangling with higher costs for several years.
    Tariffs on goods imported from the U.S.’s three largest trade partners could upend industries from autos to consumer goods to energy. Executives have been able to deflect questions about dealing with tariffs before Saturday’s announcement, and many wanted to avoid antagonizing Trump’s White House after he took office. That non-response may no longer be possible.
    “All CEOs are bewildered by these non-strategic tariff tantrums being directed at our closest allies instead of adversaries,” said Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, professor at Yale School of Management in New Haven, Conn: https://www.reuters.com/business/north-american-companies-brace-fallout-trump-tariffs-2025-02-02/

    Two Democratic senators introduced a bill that would require President Trump to get congressional approval for proposed tariffs on trading partners before imposing them, a push coming just days before the president is set to impose new ones on Mexico and Canada. Sens. Chris Coons (D-Del.) and Tim Kaine (D-Va.) brought forward the Stopping Tariffs on Allies and Bolstering Legislative Exercise of (STABLE) Trade Policy Act on Thursday, which would also require the president to elaborate on the decision to impose tariffs on U.S. allies and trading partners and how the tariffs would impact the U.S. economy and foreign policy priorities: https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/5119377-trump-tariff-threat-coons-kaine-congress/amp/

    Premier Wab Kinew announced Sunday that Manitoba Liquor and Lotteries Corporation will stop selling products imported from the United States in response to a 25 per cent tariff imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump on Canadian goods that will kick in on Tuesday. Starting Feb. 4, staff at the province’s Liquor Marts will be directed to pull American products off the shelves and will stop ordering alcohol from the U.S., the premier told reporters at a news conference Sunday. Kinew said the halt of American alcohol sales in Manitoba alone will pull $80 million annually from the U.S. economy:https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/manitoba-wab-kinew-us-tariffs-response-1.7448507

  14. Dutton, like Trump did, is promising COL relief but will cut the services that reduce COL.

    Dutton already has a track record of suppressing wages and increasing COL through inflation.

    Dutton, like Trump, is trying to scam the turkeys into voting for Christmas.

  15. Busy day ahead

    But I will leave you with this

    The uneven distribution of wealth is in the first instance someone earning well, including past generations and those now retired

    Without earning you do not accumulate wealth

    There was a time when the upper marginal tax rate was 60 cents in the $1- and there was no such thing as Franking Credits so your income from your investment income was taxed at your upper marginal tax rate of 60 cents in the $1-

    And yes, it was Hawke who first reduced from that 60 cents in the dollar

    But since then we have had a political party whose election manifesto is to further and further reduce tax including for Companies which have tax minimisation advice

    Witness the tax legislation overturned by Labor to give benefit to all tax payers instead of just high income earners

    The criteria many years ago was if you earned it you paid if – and no one complained

    Those complaining of inequality should start here

  16. Good to see Chip Le Grand back in the PB goodbooks. Even got a mention in the blog Intro.
    It’s a wonder what even mild criticism of the Coalition can do for a journalist.

  17. Stop complaining Victoria(ns):
    Adelaide last 5 days: 27,27,31,35,41 and today 41 and following 9 days 37,34,32,31,32,38,36,37,37.
    4mls rain in January and in February none so far or forecast for next 7 days.

  18. Morning all. Thanks for the international roundup HH.

    Everyone here should know the Trump tariffs are economic madness. Tariffs and trade wars have a long history and they almost always end the same way. Both sides lose, and often the country starting the trade war loses more than their intended target.

    The first well documented example was Napoleon’s “banning” continental trade with England during the Napoleonic wars. Perhaps the latest is Russia since 2022.

  19. Holdenhillbilly

    I have never liked hot weather. Lol. Agree. I shouldn’t complain.

    In particular, North Queensland is having a really difficult time of it with monsoonal rains and flooding.

  20. Socrates

    The Trump tariffs are the point. He is a treasonous piece of crap, and doing the bidding of other nefarious players.

    Meanwhile it appears the EU are getting their ducks in a row to support Canada etc and what is planned going forward.

    The wild ride continues………..sigh

  21. William thanks for the lead in article. The survey on young voters is pretty stark in its findings. It confirms that Dutton mainly appeals to older men, though neither Albo nor Dutton is getting great ratings.

    The low marks for young voters to both major parties should be giving both cause for concern, but evidently not sufficient to move them to act.

    On those results rumors of large losses of Teal and Green seats look fanciful. We are headed for minority government IMO.

  22. And in regard the tax regime, the imposition of tax when your superannuation accruals exceed a certain amount is fair and reasonable (noting you want your Allocated Pension to keep you in the manner to which you are accustomed)

    So why the delay with this Labor initiative?

  23. Victoria

    Agreed re Trump. The response from the EU to Canada is interesting. Recall that when China tariffed Australian goods we soon found other markets that were sympathetic. USA then complained about China. Now USA is doing to Canada the same as XI did to us.

    Seriously, we need to rethink our alliance with USA (and UK) in both economic and security terms. Neither major party leader seems psychologically capable of doing it, despite a mountain of evidence it is necessary.

  24. Finally I agree with Steve’s comments last night about the certainty and nature of Dutton’s cuts. They will be a re-run of the Abbott cuts.

    The LNP wants to turn Australian society into a smaller, weaker, south seas replica of America, complete with failed welfare system and entrenched poverty.

    The only difference this time compared to 2013 is that Dutton is not promising in advance there will be no cuts. He thinks Abbott in 2013 was undone by the lying, not the sociopathy. The sociopathic nature of the program has not changed.

    Have a good day all.

  25. Good Morning Dawn Patrollers!

    I will start by saying the usual February greeting that we hear all over the media…wow, where did January go!?! 😀

    I start today with Sean Kelly’s weekly column where he posits that the trend might be Labor’s friend.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/as-the-fog-of-inflation-lifts-dutton-is-cast-in-a-harsher-light-20250202-p5l8xq.html

    Research to be released on Monday by the Smart Energy Council warns that millions of rooftop solar systems would have to shut off every day to allow the baseload power generated by nuclear reactors to fit into the grid. Peter hasn’t told you that?
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-defends-nuclear-costings-as-opponents-warn-of-power-bill-hit-20250202-p5l8wu.html

    A trickle of results is coming this week, including from real estate listing giant REA Group, Kerry Stokes-backed Beach Energy and furniture retailer Nick Scali, before a deluge of earnings announcements from corporate giants over the rest of the month. As companies prepare to reveal their numbers, fund managers and strategists are making their predictions and reviewing the big themes likely to shape 2025.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/is-consumer-spending-making-a-comeback-earnings-season-will-tell-us-more-20250127-p5l7f6.html

    Hooked on sugar-hit policies, we keep ignoring the tax elephant in the room.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/hooked-on-sugar-hit-policies-we-keep-ignoring-the-tax-elephant-in-the-room-20250128-p5l7uz.html

    Teal independents Monique Ryan and Allegra Spender are two of the top spenders on online political advertisements in Australia’s parliament, as their offices splashed tens of thousands of dollars into promotion on Google and Meta.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/monique-ryan-and-allegra-spender-spend-more-than-150-000-on-google-and-meta-ads-20250128-p5l7n5.html

    From hate speech laws to super tax changes, what tops Labor’s agenda before heading to the polls?
    Electoral reforms and a key to the Future Made in Australia plan are also high on the wish list as parliament resumes
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/feb/03/from-hate-speech-laws-to-super-tax-changes-what-tops-labor-agenda-before-heading-to-election

    Labor imposes counter-terrorism sanctions on online neo-Nazi network Terrorgram. Group which calls for violent acts to destabilise society one of five listed as federal government steps up response to antisemitic attacks.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/feb/03/labor-imposes-counter-terrorism-sanctions-on-online-neo-nazi-network-terrorgram

    Coalition cuts to public service and ‘wasteful spending’ won’t be announced until after election, Dutton suggests. Federal opposition leader also doubles down on claim his nuclear plan would cut power bills by 44% despite Coalition’s own modelling being silent on issue. Hmm.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/feb/02/coalition-cuts-to-public-service-and-wasteful-spending-wont-be-announced-until-after-election-dutton-suggests

    Patricia Karvelas asks, Is Peter Dutton deliberately blowing the bloke whistle ahead of the election?
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-03/peter-dutton-appealling-to-young-male-voters-at-election/104886724

    Albanese ‘spooked’ into ditching national environment watchdog – for a second time, critics say
    Labor’s own environment action network laments delay of EPA legislation, stating ‘terrible loss’ would allow illegal logging to continue.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/feb/02/albanese-spooked-into-ditching-national-environment-watchdog-for-a-second-time-critics-say

    The 20 marginal seats Labor is fighting to hold are among the most financially stressed in the country, heaping more pressure on Prime Minister Anthony Albanese ahead of a cost-of-living election. Watch as Four Corners investigates the impact the rise of independents and minor parties will have on this election, tonight from 8:30 on ABC TV.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-03/electorates-in-financial-stress-four-corners/104875102

    This is a light-hearted reflection on what does it mean to be Australian? Are we still living in the luckiest country? And where did we go wrong with Raygun? Zayda Dollie has all the answers.
    https://independentaustralia.net/australia/australia-display/being-australian-isnt-all-bad-news,19395

    This one will stir the pot. Compulsory voting is meant to ensure freedom, writes Victor Kline, but when we’re forced to choose between the lesser of two evils, what freedom do we really have?
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/compulsory-voting-and-the-illusion-of-choice,19390

    In a conversation with Michelle Grattan, Anthony Albanese has outlined his pitch to improve his and his government’s standing among men, as he insists he can hold onto majority government at the election to be held in April or May.
    https://theconversation.com/albanese-will-pitch-to-blue-collar-men-with-heavy-warnings-on-duttons-workplace-policies-248851

    Podcasts have helped sway many young American men to the right. The same may well happen in Australia.
    https://theconversation.com/podcasts-have-helped-sway-many-young-american-men-to-the-right-the-same-may-well-happen-in-australia-248135

    Eggs and verbal abuse have been hurled at five young women near Bondi Beach and more cars and buildings have been spray-painted in the latest antisemitic attacks. Nazis, Muslims, or just plain, but more sinisterly, bought and paid for, petty criminals?
    https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/crime-news/2025/02/03/antisemitic-attacks-bondi

    Sydney is facing a wave of antisemitic attacks – but what is behind them? Police say incidents may have been ‘orchestrated in some manner’ and are ‘chasing every rabbit down every hole’
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/feb/02/sydney-is-facing-a-wave-of-antisemitic-attacks-but-what-is-behind-them

    As they probed a new spate of antisemitic graffiti attacks in Sydney, and the egging of female joggers at Bondi Beach, NSW Police refused to comment on Sunday on an unproven theory floated by Opposition Leader Peter Dutton that they had declined to share the discovery of a caravan packed with stolen mining explosives with the prime minister’s office because they feared leaks to the media.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/antisemitism-stoush-to-dominate-parliament-as-government-blacklists-white-supremacist-channel-20250202-p5l8xv.html

    Following the escalation of antisemitic attacks in Australia, including discovery of a van full of explosives and a note with the address of a local synagogue, there is widespread speculation around what is driving these crimes, who is involved and why.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/what-if-the-antisemitic-tide-has-a-bigger-target-australia-s-stability-20250202-p5l8vl.html

    Also in NSW, minister apologises after asking chauffeur to drive 446km for Australia Day weekend lunch. Transport minister Jo Haylen admits ‘I made the wrong decision’ after ministerial car booked out for 13 hours for Hunter Valley lunch at winery.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/feb/02/nsw-minister-apologises-after-asking-chauffeur-drive-winery-australia-day-weekend-ntwnfb

    The SMH editorial gets to the nub of it. The decision by the NSW Transport Minister Jo Haylen to bill taxpayers for a ministerial driver to chauffeur her and friends around on the Australia Day weekend is capable of many interpretations, including a misplaced sense of entitlement, arrogance and stupidity.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/taking-pleasure-trips-on-public-purse-goes-to-political-judgment-20250202-p5l8wn.html

    Dumped commitments, lack of transparency and an absence of accountability are the hallmarks of the Queensland LNP term so far. Surprised?
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/feb/03/ghost-of-campbell-newman-haunts-early-days-of-crisafulli-government

    The weather bureau warned on Monday that (AEDT) a tropical low hanging off the coast of Townsville could linger until Wednesday. That could dump another 500 millimetres in 24 hours on regions that already recorded an astonishing one metre of rainfall over the weekend.
    https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/weather/2025/02/03/flooding-townsville

    In Victoria thousands of properties lost power during a night of storms across Victoria, with more extreme heat and weather to come on Monday as temperatures climb towards 40 degrees.
    https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/storms-leave-thousands-without-power-ahead-of-hottest-day-of-heatwave-20250203-p5l90c.html

    At first glance the two Melbourne seats seem worlds apart – one a fast-expanding electorate in the outer west, the other a progressive hub in the inner city. But despite their differences the results of the byelections being held for Werribee and Prahran on Saturday will be pivotal for Victoria’s political future, particularly for Jacinta Allan’s Labor government.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/feb/03/how-two-byelections-could-shape-labor-and-the-greens-in-victoria

    Remember water restrictions? Without SA’s desal plant, Adelaide would probably have them again.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-03/desal-plant-helping-most-of-sa-avoid-water-restrictions/104885538

    Both major WA parties are promising to ease the financial burden on young families if they win the March election, with Labor focusing on education and the Liberals on health. Labor has pledged a $136 million dollar package for families with school-aged children, which includes another round of the Student Assistance Payment. The Liberals have announced a $110 million dollar plan to “revolutionise” access to early childhood health.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-02/young-families-focus-education-and-health-policies-/104886980

    Amid warnings that US President Donald Trump’s tariff war could keep Australian interest rates higher for longer, CoreLogic figures show the median value of a Sydney house fell 0.4 per cent in January to $1.47 million. This took the decline over the past three months to 1.6 per cent.
    https://www.smh.com.au/property/news/house-values-slide-amid-fears-trump-trade-war-will-hit-interest-rates-20250131-p5l8op.html

    US business leaders are offering a mixed reaction to steep trade tariffs that Donald Trump’s administration has imposed on Canada, Mexico and China, as the editorial board of the Wall Street Journal called it “the dumbest trade war in history”.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/02/trump-tariffs-wall-street-journal-editorial

    President Donald Trump has conceded consumers may suffer “pain” from his sweeping tariffs on goods from the US’s three biggest trading partners but insists it will be worth it, while hitting back at criticism from economists and orthodox Republicans. Lies before the election, truth after.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-says-tariff-pain-for-consumers-will-be-worth-it-for-future-us-greatness-20250203-p5l906.html

    That it took Trump less than a day to exploit a tragic plane crash for his crusade against diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) programs should come as no surprise. The 78-year-old president is on a mission to win the “culture wars”, acting with speed and ferocity to bring his rightwing agenda into every corner of American life. It is a form of shock therapy that aims to rewire society itself. Please don’t let it happen here.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/02/trump-woke-dei-culture-wars

    US President Donald Trump has warned of possible “pain” for Americans as tariffs he imposed on Canada, Mexico and China sparked instant retaliation. Check out Trump’s Truth Social bleat.
    https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/news/world/us-news/trump-news/2025/02/03/trump-tariffs-canada

    Brussels vows ‘firm’ response to threatened Trump tariffs as EU braces for trade war
    European Commission says the bloc “regrets” new U.S. tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China.
    https://www.politico.eu/article/brussels-vows-firm-response-potential-donald-trump-tariffs-eu-braces-trade-war/

    Early in the Biden administration, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers correctly warned that the president’s policies were likely to lead to inflation. He offered the same prediction Sunday about tariffs newly imposed by President Donald Trump.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2025/02/02/summers-tariffs-self-inflicted-wound-american-economy-00201978

    Ahead of what could be the most contentious Senate confirmation fight for any of President Donald Trump’s Cabinet picks, two GOP senators spoke up Sunday in support of Tulsi Gabbard, his selection for director of national intelligence.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2025/02/02/gabbard-dni-graham-schmitt-intelligence-00201980

    Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has signed off on a plan to give access to the payment system to a team led by Tom Krause, the CEO of Cloud Software Group, who is now working for the Treasury Department and serves as a liaison to Musk’s DOGE group that operates out of the United States Digital Service.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2025/02/01/musk-claims-doge-lax-treasury-00201946

    Cartoon Time!

    Alan Moir

    Simone Lia: If the world was run by a teacher

    Edith Pritchett

    Joe Benke

    Megan Herbert

    From the Internet

    Enjoy!

  26. @Mundo:

    “ AE a girlie-man…who knew?”

    Yeah. Nah, t’is just C@t going through one of her muscular rambunctious blogging phases. This is what she said about you last night:

    “The only ‘gutless coward and cream puff’ is you, mundo.”

    However, that doesn’t make us kindred spirits, you surrender monkey!

  27. Socrates

    Despite the narrative that Biden was mentally compromised, he spent a lot of time before inauguration, meeting extensively with NATO chief, and other country leaders.

    Of course, the public won’t know what was discussed and agreed to, but I do believe Biden briefed the allies as to the traitor going back into the Whitehouse.
    I am confident that the western allegiance will hold firm.

  28. I called out Musk years ago,

    Now that he is showing his ar@e, people can see what he is really all about.

    Golf clap……..

  29. Starmer should not be wasting this crisis.

    He should announce immediately that that Trump is cutting off the main reason for Brexit – open economic ties with the US.

    The only path left for Britain’s future is to reverse Brexit.

  30. Yeah, in your fever dreams L’twit that’s what happened. Now go back to sleep and dreams of making Nazi porn movies like your name sake.


  31. Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
    Monday, February 3, 2025 at 7:31 am
    Both W@rC@t and ToryMeher relying upon machismo now to justify the long con of making Taiwan a pawn for America’s geopolitical interests.

    The thing that shits me most about ‘human rights’? Them being weaponised for nothing more than grubby self interest: behold America.

    My working life has been 100% about the actual practical application of human rights: whether it be fighting for safety and better wages as a unionist, making the concept of a ‘fair trial’ a reality rather than a mere abstract as defence counsel or ensuring that victims of crime and vulnerable witnesses have their voices heard as a prosecutor. So I have a pretty good nose for bullshit when it comes to folk who bloviate about ‘human rights’ and frankly America is setting up the people of Taiwan to be thrown under the bus and yet you two fuckwits are cheering. Tory mind virus? For meher, definitely, but y’all got the china phobic mind virus in full on fever dream mode.

    And c@t do you really think I was being a ‘girly man’ when L’twit was threatening to dob me in to the legal services commissioner over his obvious butt hurt? Really?

    Vietnam war anyone. Outside WW1,WW2, the most Australian soldiers was in Vietnam.
    US were defeated (the final outcome) along with Australia in Iraq 2.0, Afghanistan, Vietnam, Korea (sort of stalemate).
    And all those countries did not have advanced weaponry. (The warmongers(from left or right) say that they did not use sophisticated weapons like atom bombs)
    If there is a Taiwan war with China, don’t expect hand to hand combat from China and other consequences of that war. (China is biggest Trade partner, anyone).
    It is as if Australian political and military establishment did not learn anything from all the above.

    What was that Albert Einstein said insanity: Repeatedly doing the same thing and expecting a different result. (Even though they did not attack Australia, Fighting distant wars and expect to win a small military and in the process hoping Uncle Sam will protect us)

  32. It is not as if they are lying about this.

    From The Guardian:

    “Cash: Trump a ‘man of action’ and Coalition would have ‘exact same attitude'”

  33. ‘BK says:
    Monday, February 3, 2025 at 9:36 am

    ASX futures down 101 points this morning.
    Trump has arrived in Australia.’
    ====================
    Yep…. and the icing on the Australian shit sandwhich: “Cash: Trump a ‘man of action’ and Coalition would have ‘exact same attitude’”

  34. The Betoota’s guide to Liberal party candidates for preselection:

    https://www.betootaadvocate.com/headlines/7-types-of-liberal-party-candidates-currently-fighting-for-pre-selections-in-suburban-australia/

    1. High-Functioning Corporate Mum Who Can Speak Multiple Languages
    2. Old Man Who Watches Too Much Sky News and Cannot Tell the Difference Between Indians and Arabs
    3. Millenial Christian with Creepily Smooth Hands
    4. Reactionary 2nd-Generation Small Business Owner
    5. Former Labor Voting Retiree Who Was Radicalised by Facebook During the Pandemic
    6. Hindu Nationalist
    7. Gay Lawyer Who Fled to Darlinghurst Years Ago But Is Technically Local (and dislikes any LGBT+ besides the G)

    The Betoota suggests #6 has a high likelihood of getting preselected due to the large number of new members they bring in, but the Werribee byelection suggests that while the Libs are happy to take money from migrant businesspeople but will still shaft them.

  35. As I said recently. Albo should go to election at last possible date.
    It will give Australians enough time to see the shit show that trump and co will have wreaked.

  36. Peter Csays:
    Monday, February 3, 2025 at 8:56 am
    [And in regard the tax regime, the imposition of tax when your superannuation accruals exceed a certain amount is fair and reasonable (noting you want your Allocated Pension to keep you in the manner to which you are accustomed)]

    [So why the delay with this Labor initiative?]

    Simply because the “Arrowhead” of the current LNP opposition, the overseas owned media representing the wealthy, will have a “butchers picnic” with any announcement to legislate and implement this change.
    Yes it should have been completed by now but you can’t change anything from opposition.

    The “franking credit” campaign is the template for the LNP.
    Said the punters to no one in particular, “you’re not taking my franking credits”.

    Asked if they had shares with “franked credits”, the replied was I don’t own shares and I’ve never heard of “franking credits, so piss off”

    The LNP just don’t do fair reasonable considered governance.

    The LNP get to attack the federal parliamentary Labor Party, whether they do and if they don’t.

    Mr Turnbull attempted reasoned leadership and was shown the door.
    The poor bugger already rich never had a chance.

    That Dutton, policy free, brain dead, totally biased, says No to everything, half educated, from Qld and is the last drop kick standing, says heaps about the LNP but even more about the conceited, pampered, overpaid land grabbing leftover “whites” and their inability to withdraw their collective heads from each others arses.

  37. Thanks Boer (7:57am) for the more thoughtful post on Taiwan than meher and C@t’s PJK driveby contributions earlier:

    “ IMO, there is something of a false binary built into Bludger discussions on Taiwan.

    Of course it is in Australia’s interests that democracies such as those in the Philippines, Greenland, Canada, Ukraine and Panama continue to flourish. They are all flawed. They are all better than autocracies.”

    _____

    To which we can also add Taiwan to the list. No argument from me, even though it ain’t a nation state – it is now a thriving autonomous entity with basic democratic underpinnings. Which is why American Foreign policy – and our preparedness to go along with it 2009-present day is so stupid and wrong headed.

    However, our ‘care and concern’ for the plight/fate of other democracies around the world – be that in the Ukraine or Taiwan – is no substitute for clear and rational thinking as to what is – and what is NOT – Australia’s vital strategic interests. Turning the ADF from an organisation whose primary mission is the ‘Defence of Australia’ into an ‘interoperable’ C@t’s paw of America who primary function appears to be waving an angry little fist at our major trading partner off China’s coast does not further our vital strategic interests, but is diametrically opposed to them. Also – and again for the hard of thinking – totally counterproductive for any ‘care and concern’ sentiment we may feel for the good burghers of Taiwan.

    This article lays out the extent of the bullshitfucvkery that the likes of meher and C@t have been conned into:

    https://johnmenadue.com/strategists-admit-west-is-goading-china-into-war/

    One of the key architects of the bullshitfuckery – (now former) Dep. Sec. of State, Kurt Campbell – has been going around Washington ever since the OHFUCKUS announcement in September 2021 bragging about how the con has worked to get ‘Australia off the fence’ and into the sweaty armpit of America ever since.

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