Perhaps reflecting by the imminence of a federal election, polling seems to be picking up quicker after New Year than usual:
• The Financial Review has the latest Freshwater Strategy poll on its regular monthly schedule, presently only available in the paper’s digital print edition, recording no change to the Coalition’s 51-49 lead on two-party preferred. This is despite a slight improvement in Labor’s position on the primary vote, up two points to 32%, with the Coalition steady on 40% and the Greens down a point to 13%. Conversely, Peter Dutton draws level with Anthony Albanese at 43% apiece on preferred prime minister, which he had never quite managed in this series before. Anthony Albanese is down two on approval to 32% and down one on disapproval to 50%, while Peter Dutton is down one to 36% and steady on 40%. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1063.
• YouGov has a federal poll that’s yet to appear on its website, but which has a headline two-party result of 51-49 to the Coalition, compared with 50-50 at the last poll in November – though the primary vote numbers look quite a bit more like 50-50 if preference flows are applied strictly as per the 2022 election result. The primary votes are Labor 32% (up two), Coalition 39% (up one), Greens 12% (down one) and One Nation 7% (down two). Anthony Albanese records improved personal ratings at 40% approval (up four) and 55% disapproval (down one), which is also true to a lesser extent of Peter Dutton, up three to 43% and up one to 49%. Albanese leads 44-40 on preferred prime minister, out from 42-39. The poll was conducted January 9 to 15 from a sample of 1504.
We’ve also had YouGov’s head of Australian political polling, Amir Daftari, relate on X that polling of 630 respondents from October to January suggests Labor is poised to win the seat of Brisbane from the Greens, with the latter running third on 23% to the LNP’s 35% and Labor’s 34%, which would translate into an easy win for Labor after the distribution of Greens preferences, reversing what happened in 2022.
Further:
• A Liberal preselection for the northern Sydney seat of Bradfield on Saturday was won by Gisele Kapterian over Warren Mundine by a margin of 207 to 171, with cardiologist Michael Feneley managing only 16 votes and another mooted contender, local councillor Barbara Ward, seemingly not making it to the starter’s gate. The seat will be vacated by retiring Liberal member Paul Fletcher and contested for a second time by teal independent Nicolette Boele, who came within 4.2% in 2022. Both Antony Green and I have calculated a post-redistribution Liberal-versus-teal margin of 2.5%, following its absorption of parts of abolished North Sydney.
• The Canberra Times reports the Liberal Senate candidate for the Australian Capital Territory, Jacob Vadakkedathu, faces a party vote for his disendorsement over accusations of branch stacking, after a petition to the management committee attracted the requisite 30 signatures from voting members.
• Lydia Lynch of The Australian reports Kara Cook, former Brisbane councillor and a lawyer specialising in domestic violence cases, is set to be preselected as Labor’s candidate for the LNP-held Brisbane seat of Bonner. An earlier report in The Australian said Labor’s national executive had intervened in Bonner to block Billy Colless, lead organiser of the public sector union Together Queensland, who had initially been the only nominee. Another Labor candidate in an LNP-held Brisbane seat is Rhiannyn Douglas, former teacher and current state party organiser, in Longman.
• The federal redistribution of the Northern Territory was finalised on January 7, confirming the boundary proposed in the draft report, which drew no dissenting submissions. The redistribution does the obvious thing of ceding the part of Palmerston that was formerly in Lingiari, which by my reckoning reduces Labor’s margin in Solomon from 9.4% to 8.4% and increases it in Lingiari from 1.0% to 1.6%.
• Angira Bharadwaj of News Corp quotes a Labor source on election timing saying “the cold hard truth is we aren’t ready and we won’t be ready for another month”.
Paul the A – from what I can tell about you, you have no right to call yourself conservative.
Let’s start with reactionary bigot and go from there shall we?
Rex Douglassays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 9:43 pm
[Victorians historically don’t like weak leaders.]
Was Dan Andrews weak ?
Was Robert Menzies weak ?
I Know the Election is soon as I have been watching the tennis and cricket and the amount of adverts from the Australian Government about there so called information about their programs eg Australia Made etc. I know both sides do it but it should be stopped. Advertising for the ALP or LNP in Government using our tax dollars.
Demon is Sinners bitch.
Oh Dear.
Something from Paul A
So, in the workplace, especially gov’t workplaces which are dominated by the diversity crowd, us conservatives have to be very careful about what we say. The “DEI” mob are always after any conservative they can find, and make their life as miserable as possible. They terrorise us.
____________________
So if you manage to get yourself dismissed/retrenched contract terminated you can run an unfair dismissal claim with the defence you were the victim of being bullied and discriminated against by virtue of being a conservative.
A cunning plan to use the woke employment protections against them.
David Rowe!

Something from Paul A
So, in the workplace, especially gov’t workplaces which are dominated by the diversity crowd, us conservatives have to be very careful about what we say.
________________________
Wouldn’t that make you the DEI hire as the only conservative in the village?
Lars
Such puerile toilet humour has been declassé for some decades now.
Lars @ 10.17pm
[yabba’s incontinence medication hasn’t been effective?]
Is that an example of why they refer to you as a “ratbag snarker” ?
Douglas and Milko says:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 10:21 pm
Lars
yabba’s incontinence medication hasn’t been effective?
Such puerile toilet humour has been declassé for some decades now.
__________________________
As the red Barron once said
How lucky you English are to find the toilet so amusing. For us, it is a mundane and functional item. For you it is the basis of an entire culture. ‘
Wat Tylersays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 9:38 pm
paul A @ #1585 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2025 – 9:04 pm
I know that you are “anti right wing people”, but we exist, and we vote, and because we have to be careful about what we say on the phone/online to pollsters, you can expect that the published figures for the LNP are probably a bit higher, and the ALP vote is a lot lower. Us on the right, have to be careful what we tell people, especially in the workplace where it can cost a promotion. So we have to fib a bit.
This is the most pathetic and delusional cuck shit I have ever read.
====================
Wat – walk in our shoes, especially in a gov’t workplace. It’s a tripwire nightmare.
Just imagine for a minute, you were a Manager in a gov’t department.
One of your underlings got into a bit of strife.
If the employee was a “leftie”, you’ve probably waive the complaint through.
But if your employee was a “known Tory”, what would you do. Put him/her through the hoops, or “waive it through”.
It’s alright, we already know the answer. Of course, your politics would overide common sense, and you’d use every mechanism to torment the Tory. C’mon, be honest.
And that is why we vote for the other side.
pied piper @ #1604 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2025 – 10:15 pm
How unpatriotic of you. Though those from the Right don’t know the real meaning of the word.
paul A @ #1611 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2025 – 10:26 pm
Lots of Victim Mentality and unfair assumptions there.
Amazing to observe how thorough the brainwashing from the RW ecosystem that this person is obviously steeped in, has been.
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ #1595 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2025 – 9:50 pm
None of the above. It’s campaign related. But it’s kind of a big deal. 😀
And, if I told you it wouldn’t be a big deal any more. 😉
“David Rowe!”
He’s on a roll – love it.
Can’t work out if Paul A is trolling or actually serious but it is obvious he hasn’t worked in a Govt department…………….as conservatives can’t stand public servants so why would they choose to be one.
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 10:05 pm
Resolve seems to be a status quo poll since its December edition. From what I can recall – and I’m happy to be corrected by … dunno, how about some actual facts – Resolve was perhaps the most favourable pollster for Labor for about the first half of this term and then after something of hiatus returned to be consistently amongst the worst pollster for the government from about the middle of last year after changing something in their methodology. Like most of the pollsters there has been a gradual decline in 2PP support for the government throughout last year, but resolve seems to sit consistently about 2-3 points below Newspoll on 2PP, and more on primaries for Labor. However the decline only seems to be about 1 point since mid 2024, and indeed it seems to have bottomed out: like the other polling (excluding Morgan which is as predictable as a boxed compass in the Bermuda triangle).
——————–
Quentin, see how the Labor loons think.
High Street thinks the “Resolve” poll was somehow rigged between Dec and now, and Earlwood drops by to speculate that the “rigging” actually occurred around the middle of last year. Of course, the real issue is the 27% national primary for “their ALP”, and lets not forget the 25% primary in Victoria.
But it’s all rigged, apparently.
Yep Australian Government advertising shouldn’t be used for what is essentially pre election spruiking of the governing party, it should be instead be serving some genuine purpose to inform the public of imminent changes that they need to know about for practical reasons. To me this just reflects a degeneracy in the quality of the polity, with the focus more about managing perceptions rather than actually serving the public good.
It’s only one poll. I still think Labor will win enough seats to form a minority government.
What. A. Man.
BREAKING: @DouglasEmhoff reportedly confronted Bruce Fischer, Sen. Deb Fischer’s husband, at the inauguration, saying, “Why would you try to shake my hand when you wouldn’t shake my wife’s hand?” This came after Fischer declined to shake VP Harris’s hand but attempted to greet Emhoff.
Dr Fumbles Mcstupidsays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 10:35 pm
Can’t work out if Paul A is trolling or actually serious but it is obvious he hasn’t worked in a Govt department…………….as conservatives can’t stand public servants so why would they choose to be one.
=================================================
Maybe he is a public servant with a media monitoring role. When he started the job he was sane. Then they gave him the job of monitoring Sky after Dark.
Quote: “If you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss gazes back into you”
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ #1617 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2025 – 10:35 pm
Sad, isn’t it that the default, go to position to take about a conservative these days is that they are just making **it up?
C@t
“ This is the guy that dumbclucks like Centre, paulA and ScromoII are infatuated with:”
Not as dumb as someone who would believe that post was correct. Even remotely.
Entropy says:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 10:39 pm
Dr Fumbles Mcstupidsays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 10:35 pm
Can’t work out if Paul A is trolling or actually serious but it is obvious he hasn’t worked in a Govt department…………….as conservatives can’t stand public servants so why would they choose to be one.
=================================================
Maybe he is a public servant with a media monitoring role. When he started the job he was sane. Then they gave him job of monitoring Sky after Dark.
Quote: “If you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss gazes back into you”
___________________________
Bit like a certain chicken soup vending machine technician with a napoleon complex. The security guard on the front desk who considers himself CEO
More likely was invited to a Departmental lunch with the Secretary, DGs and other high flyers and ordered piping hot Gazpacho soup and was all down hill from there
Dr Fumbles Mcstupidsays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 10:44 pm
Entropy says:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 10:39 pm
Dr Fumbles Mcstupidsays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 10:35 pm
Can’t work out if Paul A is trolling or actually serious but it is obvious he hasn’t worked in a Govt department…………….as conservatives can’t stand public servants so why would they choose to be one.
=================================================
Maybe he is a public servant with a media monitoring role. When he started the job he was sane. Then they gave him job of monitoring Sky after Dark.
Quote: “If you gaze long enough into an abyss, the abyss gazes back into you”
___________________________
Bit like a certain chicken soup vending machine technician with a napoleon complex. The security guard on the front desk who considers himself CEO
==========================================================
That’s me for the night.
“Smoke me a kipper, I’ll be back for breakfast”
Earlwood. I thought the same thing listening to that Landman monologue. I thought it was better when it was talking about all the products that oil is essential to produce.
I know that Charlie Munger, before he died, used to talk about the future value of oil post its use as an energy producer and how it would be even more valuable for its manufacturing uses, considering that so much of it has already been used up.
“ Quentin, see how the Labor loons think.
High Street thinks the “Resolve” poll was somehow rigged between Dec and now, and of course we have Earlwood drop by to speculate that the “rigging” actually occurred around the middle of last year. Of course, the real issue is the 27% national primary for “their ALP”, and lets not forget the 25% primary in Victoria.
But it’s all rigged, apparently.”
____
your brain is broke. Unless I have my basic facts wrong – and please, do fact check me – Resolve DID change their methodology and after a hiatus swung from being excessively positive to labor – to consistently being below the pack thereafter. It seems that each polling house has their own methodology and in the case of Resolve a new one. i would not call any of this ‘rigged’, but there are clearly some sort of house effects at play. We don’t really know who has ‘got it right’ at the moment, and all we can do is post facto rationalise this once the election day ‘now cast’ is taken. In the meantime ‘the trend is your fried’ and it seems that resolve isn’t showing much movement overall in the past couple of months, however the state breakdowns appear to be jumping about somewhat.
Whether the poor Resolve labor primary in Victoria actually lead to a LNP seat haul at the next election will depend very much on how accurate the ‘house effects’ of Resolve polling methodology are, and even if they are pretty accurate, whether or not that is enough to steamroll labor held seats that currently are outside the 54-46 range. With a LNP Victorian statewide primary of below 40 and the Greens polling in the mid teens that does not appear very likely. I’d suggest slim pickings for the LNP at best.
In NSW there are more seats within that 54-46 margin, but I think the LNP will struggle to overcome the sophomore effect in seats where the local Labor MP has a high profile and is well regarded. I doubt the LNP will sweep all or even most of Bennelong, Hunter, Robertson or Reid. I doubt there will be any gains in the outer burbs for them either. Their best chances seem confined to Patterson and Gilmore.
Queensland seems shaping up for a status quo result, except i think Labor will grab Brisbane off the Greens, and perhaps pick up either Leichhardt and Longman off the LNP.
Outside the ‘big three’ states, the state wide breakdown to ‘rest of Australia’ is a bit of a horror story for the LNP. So slim pickings there it seems.
This is perhaps the LNP’s best polling house & yet it’s hard to see the LNP winning on the back of Resolve’s polling. Sorry sport but no cigar.
Bystandersays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 10:37 pm
It’s only one poll. I still think Labor will win enough seats to form a minority government.
———————-
Which poll do you prefer Bystander, to get to that sort of fanciful reckoning.
27% or 28.5%
Take your pick
Forming minority government. How inspiring.
2022 barely a majority at a change of government election.
Labor has only won one convincing federal election victory since 1993. Something is very wrong.
Nitpick: Rimmer didn’t order hot Gazpacho soup; he sent it back because it was cold.
Pual a so can I ask you a serious question do you think Liberal can actually maintain majority government and I actually mean a big majority not a couple of seats majority I want to know how serious you are as a political competitor not just a liberal boot liquor soon they have to worry about the teals and they do need them because they were safe seats getting Labor seats doesn’t mean anything if the people in those labour were to well Labor
Labor probably won’t win a majority federally ever again. Maybe the LNP as well.
Glen Maxwell was taken out early in Thunder vs Stars match. That is reason Stars lost
Maxwell single handedly took them to last 4 after losing the first 5 matches.
A Sydney bash on Friday for a spot in grand final.
Been posted here before a few years ago, well before Trump.
I’m posting it again, these people depicted are why Trump is where he is.
https://duckduckgo.com/?q=true+detective+series+1+quotes+with+video&atb=v314-1&iax=videos&ia=videos&iai=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch%3Fv%3D_RfUj09pWfM
Also Paul when someone says they have to be careful about how they speak around the workplace that either tells me huh that you have a hatred to a bunch of people and you don’t want it you’re bigotry exposed which is not a good conversation seriously if someone says I have to be careful what I say with somewhat because it might sound offensive I don’t look at a good light
MJ even even if any of the major parties with majority I don’t think we’ve got to see big majority I think we’ve got to see majorities in the mid 70s from their on like even the massive wind in the 2019 election for the liberal party they only increase their Liberal majority up to one even then the liberals have some problems with the senate that’s why gout if Peter gets in can’t really go too far to the right because well let’s be honest it’s hard to even get f***** plants through the god damn parliament
All you people are forgetting one thing. Once Dutton wins May election, Australia may not have elections in future. British monarchy is Australians last line of defence against Dutton.
Are you expecting free and fair elections in US after Trump re-election?
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 10:55 pm
“i would not call any of this ‘rigged’, but there are clearly some sort of house effects at play”
——-
Ok, Earlwood. So you think there are some “house effects”.
Sounds like you think that Resolve poll is really rigged.
Good pseph analysis you did lower in your post.
WA – High water mark for the ALP. Can only go down.
SA – High water mark too for the ALP. Possibly pick up Sturt.
NT – So, so. CLP probably picks up one of the seats, probably the non Darwin seat
QLD – no changes – Labor picks up Brisbane, loses Blair to the LNP.
ACT – 3 ALP wins.
TAS – 2 LNP, 2 ALP and Wilkie
NSW – Fed ALP polling at 27%. LNP at 39%… = Labor will lose seats. Quite a swing in NSW.
27% Primary in the largest state, is shit. I thought Minns was doing OK, but the Albo figures
are not looking good in NSW.
VIC – Fed ALP polling at 25%. LNP at 38%. Grn vote seems to be holding up in Vic, so I’ll grant that.
Labor can’t hold, or FFS “gain” seats, in Vic with that sort of primary. 25% in the 2nd largest
state, with a massive bank up of ALP seats, is big shit for the ALP. No-one is going to convince
me that the ALP is on track to “gain” seats in Victoria. They will lose seats, and big time.
Where the Vic Grn vote distributes, is another story. 85%…. or much much lower.
I acknowledge that the Green vote seems to be holding up in Victoria. It is the ALP vote which is
collapsing.
He’s looking like a oncer. Depends on whether it’s Victoria, or his home state, that does the job .
Going by polling, looks like both states will join forces to shut this gov’t down.
mjsays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 11:03 pm
Labor probably won’t win a majority federally ever again. Maybe the LNP as well.
____________
Many interesting questions ahead.
Can the Teals hold? Why have they largely failed at state level? Will the Teal seats move towards Labor or the Greens eventually?
Can the Greens take more Labor seats? Even a couple more could be disastrous for Labor.
Can we not go insane over Peter Dalton win saying that he’ll banned elections I’m sorry but he seems like a f****** idiot who when probably if he gets into prime minister ship will f*** it up like Tony did I’m pretty sure the the elections are independent from the government he tried to do that I don’t think anyone would like that also trump’s different he’s actually popular Peter’s kind of getting there but even then he’s still under 40% like
Vensays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 11:11 pm
All you people are forgetting one thing. Once Dutton wins May election, Australia may not have elections in future. British monarchy is Australians last line of defence against Dutton.
Are you expecting free and fair elections in US after Trump re-election?
__________________________
Sell crazy someplace else, we’re all stocked up here
It really isn’t as complicated as some of you think.
Albo and Labor will lose.
Dutton and the coalition will win.
That’s it.
Something from Paul A
So, in the workplace, especially gov’t workplaces which are dominated by the diversity crowd, us conservatives have to be very careful about what we say. The “DEI” mob are always after any conservative they can find, and make their life as miserable as possible. They terrorise us.
____________________
So now Paul A and the Liberal posters are applying all the Trump tactics in Australia. Never mind that they are a pack of lies here. They are importing US culture wars to Australia, whether they are relevant or not. Yay, racism! Vote Liberal!
The US “diversity hire” meme is nonsense in Australia, and especially in government. Australia has anti-discrimination legislation, not affirmative action. People are not to be excluded. That is all. Nobody is forced to hire one type of employee, whether by gender or ethnicity.
In government the workforce in my experience is less diverse than the general population. Requirements for permanent residency or citizenship for most government jobs mean that many recent immigrants cannot apply. One third of the Australian population was not born here – would that be true of PS staff? I doubt it.
In fact Australia has the opposite problem- a shortage of workers. We need to get every group working. Talking of DEI hires in Australia is pure racism. Lets call it out for what it is.
https://www.ahri.com.au/resources/hr-research/the-state-of-diversity-equity-and-inclusion-in-australian-workplaces
PS – surely a bigger issue is old boy hires. High level jobs given to old boys from the same school. Nepotism is the problem in Australian workplaces, not diversity.
Quentin I think a Trump style campaign can work here when you have a fairly impotent Labor party that’s at best somewhat resonating only with socially progressive, well off people and a Liberal party happy to exploit genuine discord among the rest for political benefit only to then turbocharge the inequality and dumb decisions that led us to this point in the first place. Actual change will come from elsewhere if and when it ever manages to break the current gatekeepers.
I’m going to go out on a limb and say that, if Australia ever had a PM that somehow managed to manipulate the system and install a dictatorship (and I’m not saying that would actually happen under Dutton or anyone else), the King would actually do sweet fuck all about it.
”
davesays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 11:00 pm
Forming minority government. How inspiring.
2022 barely a majority at a change of government election.
Labor has only won one convincing federal election victory since 1993. Something is very wrong.
”
Something is terrifying wrong. ‘Voice’ vote demonstrated that. It appears Australian people are easily scared by LNP.
Deserving more of Dutton every day in every way.
Mj the reason trump’s campaign were this is what kos has been saying is because to them he’s an outsider f****** insane but hey also the voting help went down a couple of percentile think it was 65% voted in America in 2020 and it was around 61 and also Trump got lucky again he won the popular vote by percentage voi it also the problem that kos also said was that people still perceive the liberal party as the party of Big Business not the little guy so that’s also a problem the Liberal Party has because if they want to get those Legacy they can’t just get those seats nothing for the workers and that’d be shocked at the next election that they voted against them
dave says:
Many interesting questions ahead.
Can the Teals hold? Why have they largely failed at state level? Will the Teal seats move towards Labor or the Greens eventually?
Can the Greens take more Labor seats? Even a couple more could be disastrous for Labor.
———
Probably lots of people see the Feds as inconsequential and ineffective. State govts do a lot more tangible stuff that can be seen by voters so the major parties have easier ways to show their worth at that level maybe.
Van most referendums fail that the problem that The Voice had which is on way but is that they didn’t come up with something like oh we’ll figure it out when once you vote yes no one’s going to trust it honestly I think the voice is a stupid idea because let’s be honest is it actually going to be independent and I’ll the people of parliament actually go and listen to them because honestly just saves like we voted yes will be sucking each other’s dicks going hey we did so before the Aborigines and then they said hey we need to do this it costs this much will be like gave you the voice voice be happy with it also Mondo you are cheerful are you