Perhaps reflecting by the imminence of a federal election, polling seems to be picking up quicker after New Year than usual:
• The Financial Review has the latest Freshwater Strategy poll on its regular monthly schedule, presently only available in the paper’s digital print edition, recording no change to the Coalition’s 51-49 lead on two-party preferred. This is despite a slight improvement in Labor’s position on the primary vote, up two points to 32%, with the Coalition steady on 40% and the Greens down a point to 13%. Conversely, Peter Dutton draws level with Anthony Albanese at 43% apiece on preferred prime minister, which he had never quite managed in this series before. Anthony Albanese is down two on approval to 32% and down one on disapproval to 50%, while Peter Dutton is down one to 36% and steady on 40%. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1063.
• YouGov has a federal poll that’s yet to appear on its website, but which has a headline two-party result of 51-49 to the Coalition, compared with 50-50 at the last poll in November – though the primary vote numbers look quite a bit more like 50-50 if preference flows are applied strictly as per the 2022 election result. The primary votes are Labor 32% (up two), Coalition 39% (up one), Greens 12% (down one) and One Nation 7% (down two). Anthony Albanese records improved personal ratings at 40% approval (up four) and 55% disapproval (down one), which is also true to a lesser extent of Peter Dutton, up three to 43% and up one to 49%. Albanese leads 44-40 on preferred prime minister, out from 42-39. The poll was conducted January 9 to 15 from a sample of 1504.
We’ve also had YouGov’s head of Australian political polling, Amir Daftari, relate on X that polling of 630 respondents from October to January suggests Labor is poised to win the seat of Brisbane from the Greens, with the latter running third on 23% to the LNP’s 35% and Labor’s 34%, which would translate into an easy win for Labor after the distribution of Greens preferences, reversing what happened in 2022.
Further:
• A Liberal preselection for the northern Sydney seat of Bradfield on Saturday was won by Gisele Kapterian over Warren Mundine by a margin of 207 to 171, with cardiologist Michael Feneley managing only 16 votes and another mooted contender, local councillor Barbara Ward, seemingly not making it to the starter’s gate. The seat will be vacated by retiring Liberal member Paul Fletcher and contested for a second time by teal independent Nicolette Boele, who came within 4.2% in 2022. Both Antony Green and I have calculated a post-redistribution Liberal-versus-teal margin of 2.5%, following its absorption of parts of abolished North Sydney.
• The Canberra Times reports the Liberal Senate candidate for the Australian Capital Territory, Jacob Vadakkedathu, faces a party vote for his disendorsement over accusations of branch stacking, after a petition to the management committee attracted the requisite 30 signatures from voting members.
• Lydia Lynch of The Australian reports Kara Cook, former Brisbane councillor and a lawyer specialising in domestic violence cases, is set to be preselected as Labor’s candidate for the LNP-held Brisbane seat of Bonner. An earlier report in The Australian said Labor’s national executive had intervened in Bonner to block Billy Colless, lead organiser of the public sector union Together Queensland, who had initially been the only nominee. Another Labor candidate in an LNP-held Brisbane seat is Rhiannyn Douglas, former teacher and current state party organiser, in Longman.
• The federal redistribution of the Northern Territory was finalised on January 7, confirming the boundary proposed in the draft report, which drew no dissenting submissions. The redistribution does the obvious thing of ceding the part of Palmerston that was formerly in Lingiari, which by my reckoning reduces Labor’s margin in Solomon from 9.4% to 8.4% and increases it in Lingiari from 1.0% to 1.6%.
• Angira Bharadwaj of News Corp quotes a Labor source on election timing saying “the cold hard truth is we aren’t ready and we won’t be ready for another month”.
Watching the new Taylor Sheridan TV series “The Landman”.
Our resident cookers Pied Piper, FUBAR, T.Merde and Centre would love the central character “Tommy”, played Billy Bob Thornton – a “fixer”/“factotum” for an independent oil company ”Motex Oil” based in Midland, Texas: especially Tommy’s soliloquy in episode 3 concerning how ‘fake’ clean energy is and how baked in the oil infrastructure the world. A basic regurgitation of the Skynoos talking points:
* the total CO2 required to manufacture clean technology like wing turbines (concrete slabs, steel etc) is more than the CO2 saved by using that piece of technology to generate electricity instead of oil or coal for its 20 year life span. This is plainly wrong as it has been calculated that the ‘dust to dust’ CO2 emmisons per single onshore wind farm are between 600 and 1000 tonnes. Whereas the equivalent CO2 emmions from a coal power station producing the same energy – oil based generator – for that period exceed 60,000 tonnes.
* It would take 35 years of full production to lay down the transmission lines. Which is suspiciously like the false claims made in australia.
More to the point, as I type this China is rapidly proving the bullshit wrong. Many coal stations are becoming un financial because of the rapid rollout of renewables. Most of its motorbike fleet is already electric and it is well on the way to kicking ICE passenger cars into the dustbin of history.
Of course, larger scale road transport is still a problem to be solved, as is aviation but the fundamental assumptions behind the show are as deluded as MAGA – which probably why it has been produced and released now: there is a market for right wing magical thinking in Mexico Americana. … and elsewhere in the parts of the anglosphere infected by Murdoch.
You morons. This Resolve Poll is actually better than the previous one for Labor.
Resolve shows the distinctive signs of a significant methodology change at some point last year or the year before. It’s had a large house effect in favour of the Liberals ever since.
This poll has barely changed the KB aggregate. Carry On.
Dutton’s overt polititization of anti Semitic attacks is blowing up in his face as every hour passes.
What aren’t you doing something?
Oh, you are?
Why didn’t you tell us earlier, like before you were briefed on it?
Please, now tell us everything so that those that are being investigated bit not yet arrested know that you are onto them. Please… Please…
Entropy
Is that the best you can do?
===============================================
It is my stated position. You don’t have to like it but i want be voting for Dutton and i will be voting for Albo. No matter what
you say.
———-
I don’t care how you vote because it’s your choice but if Labor people’s only defence is but what about Dutton there’s a problem.
QR yes I think the Liberals have gone too far right but I’m not convinced they will win the election. I think Labor still has their noses ahead.
davidwh @ #1537 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2025 – 8:47 pm
The voice of sanity. 😐
High Streetsays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 9:05 pm
You morons. This Resolve Poll is actually better than the previous one for Labor.
Resolve shows the distinctive signs of a significant methodology change at some point last year or the year before. It’s had a large house effect in favour of the Liberals ever since.
This poll has barely changed the KB aggregate. Carry On.
Dutton’s overt polititization of anti Semitic attacks is blowing up in his face as every hour passes.
What aren’t you doing something?
Oh, you are?
Why didn’t you tell us earlier, like before you were briefed on it?
Please, now tell us everything so that those that are being investigated bit not yet arrested know that you are onto them. Please… Please…
=============
High Street – are you having an Ann Selzer moment?
You think the poll is fake, or rigged?
Yes David I I don’t think even the main parties will win election also a fig High Street makes a point it’s not even a bad poll if they campaign properly I mean s*** but it seems that people think labours gonna lose spectacularly
Quentin Rountree @ #1548 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2025 – 8:57 pm
When Rudd defeated Gillard for the Labor leadership there was a huge boost for their polling, but in the end it turned out to be a brown note that was like “Oops, guess in the actual vote it’s shifted 3% to Abbott’s lot.”
Nice photos from the QUAD meeting today. Does Australia, or Japan, or the US ask India about how things are with Russia these days?
High Street @ #1554 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2025 – 9:05 pm
Thank you also, High Street.
Paul a you do realise what high streets trying to say that it’s not a massive win for the liberal party at the moment this poll honestly amazing that it hasn’t gone higher for the liberal party but hey you keep acting like it’s 56 to 46
If Dutton wins the overton window goes to the right. The conclusion will be Labor needs to go more right wing to capture the centre. Not great news for those who believe in left of center policies but you can’t enact any policies if your not in Government.
Albo was to much to the left. Will be the logical conclusion.
Kris so basically Kevin win over Gillard meant sweet f*** all in the grand scheme of things I was correct don’t want to offend you
Entropy I think the problem becomes with if Peter winds is that a fee becomes too far right people will not be happy going on about trans people got to be like how does that help me like we Tony Abbott was going to do wonders and look what happened Queensland and Victoria went from Liberal governments to labour governments real quick also I don’t even think Anthony’s leftist he might say is but cada acts like a centre right person
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ #1550 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2025 – 8:58 pm
It doesn’t matter. The PB brains trust has declared Labor is gone. Therefore Labor is gone.
doyley @ #1524 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2025 – 8:04 pm
Obviously taking it with a grain of salt but, if there’s any accuracy there, I am concerned about what it could mean for Senate results. From that (remembering that Senate primaries are usually a little lower than House primaries for majors), QLD looks like it could elect just one Labor, 3 LNP (and presumably one PHON and Green) but, if that happens, it’s a status quo result, so it wouldn’t change anything. However, Victoria concerns me. While, on those numbers, I think it would be a 3 Coalition – 2 Labor – 1 Green result (status quo), it has the potential to be a scary count.
Of course, even my analysis is grain of salt-worthy because Senate predictions are hard and there are too many variables that could affect the results (not to mention this only gives us a snapshot of major party votes, we don’t know how the other is being divided up.)
Andrew_E:
I love Landman!
Quentin Rountree @ #1565 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2025 – 9:13 pm
Not so much, Gillard’s last Newspoll was 43-57. If she remained it probably would have been a 60-40 victory for Abbott’s coalition, over 100 seats in the lower house and a probable majority in the Senate so he would have been able to pass his 2014 horror budget without impediment, and I imagine quite a lot less of us would be alive today if that happened.
*status quo meaning compared to 2019, when those seats were last elected, not the last election.
Confessionssays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 9:15 pm
Dr Fumbles Mcstupid @ #1550 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2025 – 8:58 pm
What I find hard to fathom is labor is now doing worse in Victoria than in Queensland in that resolve poll.
It doesn’t matter. The PB brains trust has declared Labor is gone. Therefore Labor is gone
———
Labor would still be favoured to get returned but if Labor only gets 25% in Victoria would be ugly.
As expected, the Labor warriors in here explain away the Resolve poll as either an outlier or supposedly bad for Dutton(even though he leads Albanese by 5 points as preferred PM). Some of the self-delusion in here never fails to amuse me. From the same people who assured everyone that Kamala Harris would win last November.
Victoria could potentially be a gold mine for Dutton – he could pick up 4 or 5 or even 6 seats from that state alone. The Allen Government is seriously on the nose down there, and that doesn’t help their federal Labor counterparts.
Quentin Rountreesays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 9:11 pm
Paul a you do realise what high streets trying to say that it’s not a massive win for the liberal party at the moment this poll honestly amazing that it hasn’t gone higher for the liberal party but hey you keep acting like it’s 56 to 46
———
Quentin,
I don’t wish to contradict you as your opinion is widely regarded on this site, but “High Street” is a bit of a fanatic, who is ignoring the elephant in the room. Basically he is wishcasting. He is more into fairy tales, than reality.
The “elephant” in the room is the dire state of polling in Victoria. High Street glosses over this.
25% Fed primary, in the “wokest” state, is terrible for Mr Albanese.
He is in trouble. Scott will be around shortly to tell you that Mr Albanese will “weally, weally” pick up more seats in Victoria, but trust me, Albo won’t. He’s in diabolical strife
Democracy Sausage @ #1573 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2025 – 9:19 pm
Yeah it’s pretty much pointless to raise issues like that at his point, they just tell you to shut the fuck up and stop complaining and if you continue to do so they’ll just blame you for it all when they inevitably lose to the nazis.
Mexicanbeemersays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 9:05 pm
Entropy
Is that the best you can do?
===============================================
It is my stated position. You don’t have to like it but i want be voting for Dutton and i will be voting for Albo. No matter what
you say.
———-
I don’t care how you vote because it’s your choice but if Labor people’s only defence is but what about Dutton there’s a problem.
===============================================
Take that up with actual Labor people. I vote Labor normally but have no affiliations with the party. Basically i vote to not have a LNP Government because i can’t stand those bastards.
Who cares about Dutton or Albo? The good thing is its going to be a hung parliament – its going to be a great parly.
Lars Von Triersays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 9:01 pm
[Is it too late for an emergency Colin?]
Why do you ask that Lars ?
Lars Von Triersays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 9:26 pm
Who cares about Dutton or Albo? The good thing is its going to be a hung parliament – its going to be a great parly.
==================================================
As long as the LNP aren’t the Government i would be fine with that.
Lars Von Triersays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 9:26 pm
[Who cares about Dutton or Albo? The good thing is its going to be a hung parliament – its going to be a great parly.]
Why is that Lars ?
I am in Adelaide the Libs will not win Boothby and there is an outside chance the Alp will win Sturt which would be the only seat they will win off the Libs. Can not see the Alp win any seats off Libs in Vic or the Cairns based seat in Qld. Think Alp vote will improve in SA, stay same in WA, TAS, ACT & QLD but VIC, NSW & NT is where their Vote will drop the most. Think the final outcome will have the ALP & LNP on the same amount of Seats with the crossbench deciding who to form government with.
Just another sign the 2 party system is kaputt. I tend to agree with you Entropy – even if Dutton wins , he’d be a single termer too.
Democracy Sausagesays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 9:19 pm
As expected, the Labor warriors in here explain away the Resolve poll as either an outlier or supposedly bad for Dutton(even though he leads Albanese by 5 points as preferred PM). Some of the self-delusion in here never fails to amuse me. From the same people who assured everyone that Kamala Harris would win last November.
==================================================
Yes, Labor needs to do more to call out the Likud War Criminals. They need to attack Dutton for his full support of Likud War Criminals and their genocide. Time to take the gloves off and go for genocide apologists like Dutton.
Quentin Rountreesays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 9:11 pm
Paul a you do realise what high streets trying to say that it’s not a massive win for the liberal party at the moment this poll honestly amazing that it hasn’t gone higher for the liberal party but hey you keep acting like it’s 56 to 46
——————–
Quentin,
High Street believes this poll is fake. He thinks it’s been “rigged in favour of the Liberals”, by some sort of methadology change.
He is heading into the Ann Selzer arena. Remember her, she brought out a poll which turned out to be rigged. All High Street is trying to do, is tell the Labor loons on this site, that there is nothing to see here, so move on. That’s all.
Of course, we then have a 28.5% ALP primary, which turned up a couple of days ago. Probably the same mentality applies – nothing to see here, so let’s all move on and talk about some other trivia.
I know that you are “anti right wing people”, but we exist, and we vote, and because we have to be careful about what we say on the phone/online to pollsters, you can expect that the published figures for the LNP are probably a bit higher, and the ALP vote is a lot lower. Us on the right, have to be careful what we tell people, especially in the workplace where it can cost a promotion. So we have to fib a bit.
Just saw a Palmer ad on TV. Probably the most politically coherent sounding ad he’s done. While vague, there’s no silliness or big rhetoric, just populist appeals on bread & butter issues and even an element of compassion. Skips any controversial stuff.
Don’t know how well he’s going to do this time or which side it will affect more but it’s a clever tone to pitch (and no, I do not, nor will I support him or his party. I am just commenting on the quality of messaging he’s giving to generally politically unengaged voters who might have a bad taste for both major parties in their mouths and not like the Greens either.)
Sausage….
Make of polls what you will, but you are disingenuous in comparing the US Presidential election with a Oz Federal one.
You will of course know full well that in the 6-7 battleground States in the US there was but a fag paper between Harris winning and losing.
That these States just made it for Trump translated into what looked like an overwhelming win.
Similar applies in Oz that when one or other of the parties gets closer to 52 TPP and the losers closer to 48 TPP the headlines shriek “Landslide”.
You will also know that rarely, if ever does one or other of our major parties here score more than 52 or less than 48 in terms of TPP.
I pointed out earlier that 28 PV for Labor (if this is really the case) is not that flash but the combine LNP vote is struggling to sustain anything much over 38.
When the LNP vote on polls consistently show 43/44 PV might be the time to open the champagne….and that is not yet by a long chalk.
I am glad you are “amused” as with Dutton in the wings there is little of nothing to be amused about such a piece of wooden politician as a viable option for PM
This is the guy that dumbclucks like Centre, paulA and ScromoII are infatuated with:
paul A @ #1585 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2025 – 9:04 pm
This is the most pathetic and delusional cuck shit I have ever read.
I heard a very interesting fact tonight at our branch meeting. Not that I can tell you what it is. 🙂
Wat Tylersays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 9:38 pm
paul A @ #1585 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2025 – 9:04 pm
I know that you are “anti right wing people”, but we exist, and we vote, and because we have to be careful about what we say on the phone/online to pollsters, you can expect that the published figures for the LNP are probably a bit higher, and the ALP vote is a lot lower. Us on the right, have to be careful what we tell people, especially in the workplace where it can cost a promotion. So we have to fib a bit.
This is the most pathetic and delusional cuck shit I have ever read.
=========================================================
I’m a nazi but i can’t let the pollsters know i’m nazi. So i want tell them i will vote for Dutton.
There is some logic in the argument. Assuming you believe Dutton is a nazi too.
Though the alternate argument. I’m a left wing voter but surrounded by RWNJ’s. I can’t let pollsters know i vote left. As if the RWNJ’s get in, they will send me off to the death camps, if they knew.
Victorians historically don’t like weak leaders.
Wat Tyler @ #1589 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2025 – 9:38 pm
It’s kind of weird that he’s positing that the bosses are for the ALP!?!
I guess it’s just that same line that Trump run. If you’ve got a brain and integrity to go with it, you vote for the dirty lefties, but the mindless Hi Vis/Low Education Workers vote for the party that is Anti Worker and Pro Billionaire. Go figure.
Rex Douglas @ #1592 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2025 – 9:43 pm
Nice to see you running the Coalition meme for them, Rex Douglas.
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 9:39 pm
I heard a very interesting fact tonight at our branch meeting. Not that I can tell you what it is.
——
Come on. Dont leave us hanging.
Albo is putting you forward as a captains pick?
paul A @ #1585 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2025 – 9:04 pm
I know that you are “anti right wing people”, but we exist, and we vote, and because we have to be careful about what we say on the phone/online to pollsters, you can expect that the published figures for the LNP are probably a bit higher, and the ALP vote is a lot lower. Us on the right, have to be careful what we tell people, especially in the workplace where it can cost a promotion. So we have to fib a bit.
___________________
Ahh the Shy Tory hypthesis
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shy_Tory_factor
wranslide says:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 9:47 pm
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 9:39 pm
I heard a very interesting fact tonight at our branch meeting. Not that I can tell you what it is.
——
Come on. Dont leave us hanging.
Albo is putting you forward as a captains pick?
____________________
Been sounded out about getting an Australia Day Honour?
Dr Fumbles Mcstupidsays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 9:48 pm
paul A @ #1585 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2025 – 9:04 pm
I know that you are “anti right wing people”, but we exist, and we vote, and because we have to be careful about what we say on the phone/online to pollsters, you can expect that the published figures for the LNP are probably a bit higher, and the ALP vote is a lot lower. Us on the right, have to be careful what we tell people, especially in the workplace where it can cost a promotion. So we have to fib a bit.
___________________
Ahh the Shy Tory hypthesis
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shy_Tory_factor
==================================================
Yes, as the one thing we learnt from Jan 6th is RWNJ’s are quite shy. Which is why they prefer to knock you over the head with a cordon stand. Then hold a discussion with you over what is politically troubling them.
Entropy,
You don’t know who’se on the phone or who is monitoring your online activity if you fill in a poll.
So, in the workplace, especially gov’t workplaces which are dominated by the diversity crowd, us conservatives have to be very careful about what we say. The “DEI” mob are always after any conservative they can find, and make their life as miserable as possible. They terrorise us.
So, to survive, you tell them what they want to hear. So when you have to attend one of their rubbish lectures about “toxic males”, yep, you agree that males are toxic, just to get them off your back.
“Someone” rings you up to poll your views. Do you really know who’se on the phone?
Could be the woke Boss’s P.A. Have to be on guard, all the time, when you are a conservative.
But then we go down to the ballot box, where we can express our views in privacy.
Resolve seems to be a status quo poll since its December edition. From what I can recall – and I’m happy to be corrected by … dunno, how about some actual facts – Resolve was perhaps the most favourable pollster for Labor for about the first half of this term and then after something of hiatus returned to be consistently amongst the worst pollster for the government from about the middle of last year after changing something in their methodology. Like most of the pollsters there has been a gradual decline in 2PP support for the government throughout last year, but resolve seems to sit consistently about 2-3 points below Newspoll on 2PP, and more on primaries for Labor. However the decline only seems to be about 1 point since mid 2024, and indeed it seems to have bottomed out: like the other polling (excluding Morgan which is as predictable as a boxed compass in the Bermuda triangle).
paul Asays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 9:59 pm
Entropy,
You don’t know who’se on the phone or who is monitoring your online activity if you fill in a poll.
So, in the workplace, especially gov’t workplaces which are dominated by the diversity crowd, us conservatives have to be very careful about what we say.
=======================================================
I don’t think your paranoia is healthy. Maybe you should consult your GP about it.
paul A says:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 9:59 pm
Entropy,
You don’t know who’se on the phone or who is monitoring your online activity if you fill in a poll.
____________________________
Perhaps if you took off the tin foil hat when at work and didn’t cover your mouth with a handkerchief when speaking on the phone it might look a bit less suspicious.