Perhaps reflecting by the imminence of a federal election, polling seems to be picking up quicker after New Year than usual:
• The Financial Review has the latest Freshwater Strategy poll on its regular monthly schedule, presently only available in the paper’s digital print edition, recording no change to the Coalition’s 51-49 lead on two-party preferred. This is despite a slight improvement in Labor’s position on the primary vote, up two points to 32%, with the Coalition steady on 40% and the Greens down a point to 13%. Conversely, Peter Dutton draws level with Anthony Albanese at 43% apiece on preferred prime minister, which he had never quite managed in this series before. Anthony Albanese is down two on approval to 32% and down one on disapproval to 50%, while Peter Dutton is down one to 36% and steady on 40%. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1063.
• YouGov has a federal poll that’s yet to appear on its website, but which has a headline two-party result of 51-49 to the Coalition, compared with 50-50 at the last poll in November – though the primary vote numbers look quite a bit more like 50-50 if preference flows are applied strictly as per the 2022 election result. The primary votes are Labor 32% (up two), Coalition 39% (up one), Greens 12% (down one) and One Nation 7% (down two). Anthony Albanese records improved personal ratings at 40% approval (up four) and 55% disapproval (down one), which is also true to a lesser extent of Peter Dutton, up three to 43% and up one to 49%. Albanese leads 44-40 on preferred prime minister, out from 42-39. The poll was conducted January 9 to 15 from a sample of 1504.
We’ve also had YouGov’s head of Australian political polling, Amir Daftari, relate on X that polling of 630 respondents from October to January suggests Labor is poised to win the seat of Brisbane from the Greens, with the latter running third on 23% to the LNP’s 35% and Labor’s 34%, which would translate into an easy win for Labor after the distribution of Greens preferences, reversing what happened in 2022.
Further:
• A Liberal preselection for the northern Sydney seat of Bradfield on Saturday was won by Gisele Kapterian over Warren Mundine by a margin of 207 to 171, with cardiologist Michael Feneley managing only 16 votes and another mooted contender, local councillor Barbara Ward, seemingly not making it to the starter’s gate. The seat will be vacated by retiring Liberal member Paul Fletcher and contested for a second time by teal independent Nicolette Boele, who came within 4.2% in 2022. Both Antony Green and I have calculated a post-redistribution Liberal-versus-teal margin of 2.5%, following its absorption of parts of abolished North Sydney.
• The Canberra Times reports the Liberal Senate candidate for the Australian Capital Territory, Jacob Vadakkedathu, faces a party vote for his disendorsement over accusations of branch stacking, after a petition to the management committee attracted the requisite 30 signatures from voting members.
• Lydia Lynch of The Australian reports Kara Cook, former Brisbane councillor and a lawyer specialising in domestic violence cases, is set to be preselected as Labor’s candidate for the LNP-held Brisbane seat of Bonner. An earlier report in The Australian said Labor’s national executive had intervened in Bonner to block Billy Colless, lead organiser of the public sector union Together Queensland, who had initially been the only nominee. Another Labor candidate in an LNP-held Brisbane seat is Rhiannyn Douglas, former teacher and current state party organiser, in Longman.
• The federal redistribution of the Northern Territory was finalised on January 7, confirming the boundary proposed in the draft report, which drew no dissenting submissions. The redistribution does the obvious thing of ceding the part of Palmerston that was formerly in Lingiari, which by my reckoning reduces Labor’s margin in Solomon from 9.4% to 8.4% and increases it in Lingiari from 1.0% to 1.6%.
• Angira Bharadwaj of News Corp quotes a Labor source on election timing saying “the cold hard truth is we aren’t ready and we won’t be ready for another month”.
goll says:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 8:03 pm
Lars Von Triersays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 7:58 pm
[How ironic if Victoria makes Peter Craig Dutton our next PM.]
Why is that ironic ?
______________________
Sorry goll, if you don’t understand I can’t help you.
Many are writing de Minaur off tonight, but Sinner has problems of his own – to wit: two allegations of taking an enhancing substance (clostebol), both of which have been forwarded for determination to WADA, to be heard in April, after the International Tennis Integrity Agency let him off with a slap on the wrist. If Sinner takes a break, it should give rise to a suspicion that he’s once again blaming his masseur for inflicting him with doses of testosterone in the course of a massage.
”
Confessionssays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 7:57 pm
CBS News@CBSNews
·
7h
President Trump announced Tuesday that he has pardoned Ross Ulbricht, the founder of Silk Road, an underground website that the FBI once called “the most sophisticated and extensive criminal marketplace on the internet.” https://cbsn.ws/4ho0Gud
So much karma being consumed.
”
Trump loud message: CRIME PAYS. Otherwise why will I be in WH.
Commit as much crime as you can. I will commute any sentence.
And they say The United States of America is governed by a system intended to ensure order and to protect citizens through laws and processes to enforce those laws. This is often referred to as “rule of law.” Laws in the United States follow the principles and rights outlined in the United States Constitution.
Two Sydney men charged by NSW Police’s anti-Semitism task force were seemingly hired by an unknown nefarious criminal referred to as “James Bond” to carry out a firebombing on a Bondi brewery they mistook for a Jewish deli with a similar name.
After realising they may have inadvertently torched a different Bondi establishment that shared a “Lewis” in its name with the deli, the attackers said: “I’m starting to think he (James Bond) has sent us to the wrong place lol”.
Political debate raged on Wednesday after the Australian Federal Police said it was exploring whether “overseas actors” had enlisted local criminals to carry out anti-Semitic attacks, something which the federal Coalition demanded more evidence, with intelligence since suggesting Australia-based organised crime gangs could have paid perpetrators behind recent attacks.
The Australian can reveal footage of Curly Lewis brewery in Bondi being set alight after the two criminals, appearing to take orders from an unknown Australia-based man via encrypted messaging platform Signal, seemingly mistook the business for the nearby kosher deli of a similar name, which was firebombed days later.
Authorities are attempting to understand who may be orchestrating and funding some of the attacks behind the scenes, with this latest revelation only furthering authorities’ belief that some perpetrators may be criminals for hire.
On October 17, Bondi’s Curly Lewis brewery was set alight, sustaining about $80,000 in damages. A few days later, on October 20, the Jewish-run kosher deli, Lewis’ Continental Kitchen, was torched a kilometre away from the brewery.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/james-bond-enlists-local-criminals-in-botched-sydney-jewish-deli-attack/news-story/37332f87f1244c6980418ba3a0d979ae?amp
Anybody think going full term was a smart strategy now?
The ALP most likely would have won with a new Leader in July/ August of last year.
We may now understand why the Libs are targeting the Teals – they may be picking up that they can actually run the table now.
Well, Paul A ….
Thanks for rehashing my entire item!
You are dead wrong about my attitude towards the polls.
I have seen too many elections/polls where (Labor 2019 being the most recent) were lay down misere to win but…………… they did not.
As well I have seen a lead of 52-48 disappear for Labor in the space of a 4-6 week Federal election campaign.
The most painful was 1969 when Labor should have been elected with Whitlam and when Beasley lost the election but won the TPP.
I suggest you and the the rest of the Jeer Squad make the most of it while you can as our electoral system is such that in a two-party race either side are always in the game.
Which means we could have the dead hand of a 1950s LNP government with Dutton, but preferably more of the sound, stable and competent government from Labor.
If Labor does go on to win, I hope you still around the site for further inputs….and not, like many of your ilk, disappear into the night never to be heard of again.
The latest Resolve poll is what it is. The result is what the respondents determined. No problem with that.
Saying that, the National headline figures ( except for PPM which is a surprise given other recent poll results ) have not changed from December 2024. State breakdowns up or down 1%.
A moribund poll with no movement at the station.
Cheers and a great night to all.
Entropysays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 7:51 pm
A good poll for the LNP and Paul A begins measuring the drapes in Yarralumla.
=========
Two good polls this week Entropy. 28.5% and 27%. Awesome start to the year for Albo.
The early Jan silly season polls are over, and now we are into the meat.
Interesting the Greens vote is ticking up though.
Disaster of a summer, for your PM. Nothing is working for him, it’s over.
Lars Von Triersays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 8:09 pm
Anybody think going full term was a smart strategy now?
=====================================================
Yes, particularly if the first interest rate cut is in by then.
doyleysays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 8:14 pm
The latest Resolve poll is what it is. The result is what the respondents determined. No problem with that.
Saying that, the National headline figures ( except for PPM which is a surprise given other recent poll results ) have not changed from December 2024. State breakdowns up or down 1%.
A moribund poll with no movement at the station.
Cheers and a great night to all.
====================
25% primary for the Federal ALP in woketoria, Doyley.
It is a poll which heralds disaster.
Have a great night too.
One interest rate cut won’t make much difference because Albo is the problem.
I wonder why the government is not performing better in the polls. I think by any objective measure it has performed better than the last few governments.
I also wonder why the ALP performed so poorly at the 2022 election, barely getting a majority at a change of government election is more than rare.
Entropy says:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 8:16 pm
Lars Von Triersays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 8:09 pm
Anybody think going full term was a smart strategy now?
=====================================================
Yes, particularly if the first interest rate cut is in by then.
_____________________
The Dems got a rate cut 6 weeks out from the Presidential election. President Kamala Harris would tell you how well that worked out.
Before people get too excited about this poll stay patient pending Newspoll. We have two polls showing a slight improvement in Labor primary and two showing a deterioration. We still don’t have a reliable trend.
A lot of odd movements in that Resolve poll. From a preliminary look, I’d say that people are becoming more aware of the Independents and putting them down as a first preference, at the expense of Labor. That leaves open what they will do if there isn’t a credible independent in their seat and also what they will do with their second preference.
Also possibly a bad sample for Labor. Even presuming the methods used to calculate confidence intervals are robust (which I’ve always doubted with these highly managed and weighted polls) still need to remember that in 5% of cases, they will be wrong by more than the “margin of error”.
The state results are probably a bit dicey due to subsample size.
paul A says:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 8:05 pm
Dr Fumbles – you probably need to get out a bit more.
Peter C is active on the Victorian social scene, so maybe organise a catch up.
25% primary for the ALP federally in Victoria.
Yep, if you’re a Victorian, I’d say you probably need to get out a bit more.
_________________________
What I was trying to say is I will wait for some evidence that state ALP is a drag on the federal vote, but honestly I dont think the federal ALP needs any help in that regard.
Maybe I do need to get out more but as a comparison between Dan Labor and now the getting out and about variable is consistent at the same propensity to socialise.
For Federal labor, well the story is a bit less favourable, bare in mind I don’t go out of my way to talk to strangers about politics. I guess it is just feeling the ‘vibe’. For further context I am in a very marginal regional labor seat.
paul Asays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 8:16 pm
Entropysays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 7:51 pm
A good poll for the LNP and Paul A begins measuring the drapes in Yarralumla.
=========
Two good polls this week Entropy. 28.5% and 27%. Awesome start to the year for Albo.
The early Jan silly season polls are over, and now we are into the meat.
Interesting the Greens vote is ticking up though.
Disaster of a summer, for your PM. Nothing is working for him, it’s over.
======================================================
Even if your Trumpian dud Dutton does get in. He’ll be a one term wonder. Want even make to the next election. We know how to tear down the Abbott’s of this world, when in office. Dud Dutton has even more RWNJ baggage then that loon. Liz of 39 days is more like Dutton material. Expect a similar reign length, if the dud does falls into office. As a wet lettuce would be more competent and out last the dud.
I’d raise my thoughts about the Resolve poll but I’d probably be bitched at so meh, I’ll post this instead.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PCY0aeUx-Ns
Mexicanbeemersays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 8:19 pm
Any interest rate cut won’t make much difference because Albo is the problem.
————
Any interest rate cut won’t take effect until about 6 weeks after said interest rate cut.
Yes, Albo is the problem. They should’ve tipped him out last year, but he has the parly numbers.
Shorten, Perrett & Burney have fled. Plibersek is fuming (she was treated like rubbish over the Macquarie Harbour salmon nonsense). Marles has no idea what he is doing, and Wong is now caught up in “farewell photo ops” in Washington.
It’s a complete clownshow.
So do people think liberals have it in the bag huh I remember 2019 people fought labour in the bag oh well it’s nice to give anyway give them hope also do agree with that one poster Peter does get it might be a one term government people want cost a living not culture Wars huh I don’t know how attacking trans people makes the cost of living go down but um if anyone here can tell me that without sounding transphobic I would like to hear it also also Paula Victorious labours being in there for damn ten years now so yeah no wonder people might be a little unhappy at labour at the moment same thing happened in Queensland also calling it so trying to use work as an insults kind of f****** stupid
davesays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 8:19 pm
I wonder why the government is not performing better in the polls. I think by any objective measure it has performed better than the last few governments.
I also wonder why the ALP performed so poorly at the 2022 election, barely getting a majority at a change of government election is more than rare.
—————-
Dave,
Grab a postage stamp, turn it over, and then write down all this gov’t’s achievements this past 3 years.
You’ll have a lot of blank space left on the back of your stamp.
I’m from the right, but perhaps ask some of the remaining “Greens” aligned posters still on this site if they can list some of Mr Albanese’s achievements this past three years.
I bet you’ll be greeted with silence.
Tennis is on.
Mexicanbeemersays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 8:19 pm
One interest rate cut won’t make much difference because Albo is the problem.
========================================================
So you prefer Dutton over Albo, i certainly don’t.
State breakdown in latest Resolve. December 2024 results in ( ). Labor first, coalition second.
NSW 27(27) / 39(38)
Victoria 25(26) / 38(38)
QLD 26(25) / 42(38)
Rest of Australia 30(27) / 31(35)
It is what it is. Nothing significant in NSW or Victoria. Coalition up in QLD and labor improving in Rest of Australia.
Cheers and goodnight.
paul Asays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 8:32 pm
davesays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 8:19 pm
I wonder why the government is not performing better in the polls. I think by any objective measure it has performed better than the last few governments.
I also wonder why the ALP performed so poorly at the 2022 election, barely getting a majority at a change of government election is more than rare.
—————-
Dave,
Grab a postage stamp, turn it over, and then write down all this gov’t’s achievements this past 3 years.
You’ll have a lot of blank space left on the back of your stamp.
I’m from the right, but perhaps ask some of the remaining “Greens” aligned posters still on this site if they can list some of Mr Albanese’s achievements this past three years.
I bet you’ll be greeted with silence.
Tennis is on.
==================================================
So are BW listicle fits on back of a postage stamp. I’ve heard everything now. Do you put it there using microfilm?
Hey Paul can you name the achievements the liberal party did win the had 10 years in office also is the resolve party preference 51 to 49 to the liberal party that’s what people are excited about holy crap if it’s true then well what a commandingly Liberal Party has if it’s true holy s*** to people know it’s Swings Back during election like remember when we all thought it was gonna be 56 to 44 to Labor in 2022 and it was what 52 to 48 that’s real commanding lead holy s*** you guys are happy oh it’s a one point above 50 but hey I have you celebrations
paul A says:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 8:27 pm
Mexicanbeemersays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 8:19 pm
Any interest rate cut won’t make much difference because Albo is the problem.
————
Any interest rate cut won’t take effect until about 6 weeks after said interest rate cut.
______________________________
An interest rate cut will have an immediate effect – not on $$ and mortgages but on sentiment and confidence. Changes in expectations are just as valuable as actual changes in position – look at the “right track/wrong track, good time to buy questions in polls” It is an indicator that government has the economy going the right way and is in control, has the ‘hands on the levers’ as PJK said.
The great unwashed in voterland dont know or care about how the RBA works and how rates are set, they just want something to be seen to be done.
Government is more that willing to take credit for positive economic outcomes they have little control of so voters see them as responsible for the bad as well.
We really need Scott on here to comment on this latest poll.
Yeah fumbles I reckon if the RBA can do complex econometric models they can read polls too.
Can someone ask me a valid answer people act like this polls are 56 to 44 poll we had in the beginning of 2022 and people are freaking out I mean hey if you want to freak out be my guess
Quentin Rountree @ #1530 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2025 – 8:40 pm
Mainly because for the past 2 decades federal polls have generally shifted toward the Coalition during the campaign period, usually from 2-5%.
So if going into election season 48-52 behind, it’s probably going to be worse than that for Labor.
So liberals on this site jumping for joy for a 51 to 49 poll I don’t see how the government can majority but um hey you you think happy forts to the liberal parties who think this as a 60 to 40 thrashing
Lars Von Triersays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 8:38 pm
We really need Scott on here to comment on this latest poll.
================================================
Why, we have you and Paul A. Its like a Lewis Carroll novel. There is both Tweedledee and Tweedledum present.
Quote: “Contrariwise, if it was so, it might be; and if it were so, it would be; but as it isn’t, it ain’t. That’s logic”
Kirs I mean I’m pretty sure it’s one to to the labour and the Queensland election honestly I still think either major parties gonna be happy on election night so yeah also labour and liberal have to run a perfect campaign or they’re gonna get f*****
“If you haven’t seen Trump’s reaction to the sermon at the church service after the inauguration, these three video clips say it all.”
LOL! Combined with the “Billionaire’s Row” at the inauguration, it’s clear money, power and Botox can’t buy happiness. The ugly side of politics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q47EltFPHUU
The moment we have Penny Wong announce she is quitting politics to spend more time with her family we know things are dire.
Albo is acting like Joe Biden was, just drifting along as his approval rating drops. Willfully (it seems) letting Dutton run the government’s agenda and appearing weak.
QR some people get a little excited when they see a Labor primary beginning with a 2 even when the Coalition primary still begins with a 3.
Tsk Tsk Entropy its just a poll.
Besides I thought you enjoyed Scott’s psephological work?
Kirsdarkesays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 8:43 pm
Quentin Rountree @ #1530 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2025 – 8:40 pm
Can someone ask me a valid answer people act like this polls are 56 to 44 poll we had in the beginning of 2022 and people are freaking out I mean hey if you want to freak out be my guess
Mainly because for the past 2 decades federal polls have generally shifted toward the Coalition during the campaign period, usually from 2-5%.
So if going into election season 48-52 behind, it’s probably going to be worse than that for Labor.
================================================
I thought they tended to shift back to the incumbent. Which during most of the time you specified was the LNP.
Due to fact the opposition has to come up with and sell its policies. When before that period it only had to bag the Governments policies and management.
@Quentin
I meant federal polls. State polls tend to be a whole other game. Especially in Queensland where in 2004 they voted overwhelmingly for both John Howard and Peter Beattie.
So Labor is going into opposition this year.
Okay.
S. Simpson @ #1537 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2025 – 8:46 pm
Labor is going into opposition. Lean into that and feel the pressure in your head dissipate.
Kirs Cause in the past 20 years it’s been LNP at federal level of course it’s gonna be a swing back to them if they’re in government I mean Kevin even said that there’s gonna there’s always this I think it’s a one or two percent swing for incumbrant governments that’s why I don’t think it’s gonna be a blowout if even one wins it’s I will not be surprised the age of mass majority in the house is over I don’t think we’re going to see 80 seats for a single party ever again
Entropy @ #1539 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2025 – 8:48 pm
Not in the case where there were Labor governments. Labor was in the lead 55-45 at the start of the 2010 campaign, then it ended 50-50. Similar story to the start of the 2013 campaign where Labor led 52-48, but the Coalition won 47-53.
Entropysays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 8:32 pm
Mexicanbeemersays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 8:19 pm
One interest rate cut won’t make much difference because Albo is the problem.
========================================================
So you prefer Dutton over Albo, i certainly don’t
——-
Is that the best you can do?
Lars Von Trier says:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 8:40 pm
Yeah fumbles I reckon if the RBA can do complex econometric models they can read polls too.
______________
Sure they can but why would they bother? They are not politicans/party hacks. They use the indicators, macro models and other tools they have to make a impartial assessment using quantitative data.
Funny thing how there is this inverse relationship between percetions an reality with interest rates.
I mean rising rates so, economic growth, employment, rising wages, increasing investment but to keep in line with potential inflation = perceptions is bad/negative unless you are a self funded retiree.
Falling rates so, slow growth, rising unemployment, stagnant wages falling investment = positive as my mortgage is cheaper but everything else is going to crap around me.
I know pretty simple but the (and we must use the word) Relative high rates bad/low rates good
Davidwh you seem like the same Liberal around here do you feel sucks at your party so far right that even if they do get in power they’ll probably screw it up spectacularly also do you like it that apparently labor’s dead now so um guys probably couldn’t handle well two when the Nazis were winning oh no they took Paris looks like we’re going to give up you know you know if Apple acted like that on the Campaign Trail just realize he lost and just acted like a loser I’ll be more pissed huh if he didn’t f****** try to win the election if he just gave up well because apparently the polls bad no you fight listen I always say I prefer a State of Origin match where it seems me that at least both sides gave it they’re all instead of just f****** in their asses hand it to them you Labor supporters of the saddest bunch of people ever
Kris no the during the 2013 campaign the Liberal Party was ahead I don’t even labour in the lead during 2013 I’m pretty sure by the beginning of 2013 the coalition was constantly in the lead
What I find hard to fathom is labor is now doing worse in Victoria than in Queensland in that resolve poll.
Mexicanbeemersays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 8:54 pm
Entropysays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 8:32 pm
Mexicanbeemersays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 8:19 pm
One interest rate cut won’t make much difference because Albo is the problem.
========================================================
So you prefer Dutton over Albo, i certainly don’t
——-
Is that the best you can do?
===============================================
It is my stated position. You don’t have to like it but i want be voting for Dutton and i will be voting for Albo. No matter what you say. As the person i have the biggest problem with in Australian politics is Dutton, he is a nasty piece of work.
Is it too late for an emergency Colin?