Perhaps reflecting by the imminence of a federal election, polling seems to be picking up quicker after New Year than usual:
• The Financial Review has the latest Freshwater Strategy poll on its regular monthly schedule, presently only available in the paper’s digital print edition, recording no change to the Coalition’s 51-49 lead on two-party preferred. This is despite a slight improvement in Labor’s position on the primary vote, up two points to 32%, with the Coalition steady on 40% and the Greens down a point to 13%. Conversely, Peter Dutton draws level with Anthony Albanese at 43% apiece on preferred prime minister, which he had never quite managed in this series before. Anthony Albanese is down two on approval to 32% and down one on disapproval to 50%, while Peter Dutton is down one to 36% and steady on 40%. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1063.
• YouGov has a federal poll that’s yet to appear on its website, but which has a headline two-party result of 51-49 to the Coalition, compared with 50-50 at the last poll in November – though the primary vote numbers look quite a bit more like 50-50 if preference flows are applied strictly as per the 2022 election result. The primary votes are Labor 32% (up two), Coalition 39% (up one), Greens 12% (down one) and One Nation 7% (down two). Anthony Albanese records improved personal ratings at 40% approval (up four) and 55% disapproval (down one), which is also true to a lesser extent of Peter Dutton, up three to 43% and up one to 49%. Albanese leads 44-40 on preferred prime minister, out from 42-39. The poll was conducted January 9 to 15 from a sample of 1504.
We’ve also had YouGov’s head of Australian political polling, Amir Daftari, relate on X that polling of 630 respondents from October to January suggests Labor is poised to win the seat of Brisbane from the Greens, with the latter running third on 23% to the LNP’s 35% and Labor’s 34%, which would translate into an easy win for Labor after the distribution of Greens preferences, reversing what happened in 2022.
Further:
• A Liberal preselection for the northern Sydney seat of Bradfield on Saturday was won by Gisele Kapterian over Warren Mundine by a margin of 207 to 171, with cardiologist Michael Feneley managing only 16 votes and another mooted contender, local councillor Barbara Ward, seemingly not making it to the starter’s gate. The seat will be vacated by retiring Liberal member Paul Fletcher and contested for a second time by teal independent Nicolette Boele, who came within 4.2% in 2022. Both Antony Green and I have calculated a post-redistribution Liberal-versus-teal margin of 2.5%, following its absorption of parts of abolished North Sydney.
• The Canberra Times reports the Liberal Senate candidate for the Australian Capital Territory, Jacob Vadakkedathu, faces a party vote for his disendorsement over accusations of branch stacking, after a petition to the management committee attracted the requisite 30 signatures from voting members.
• Lydia Lynch of The Australian reports Kara Cook, former Brisbane councillor and a lawyer specialising in domestic violence cases, is set to be preselected as Labor’s candidate for the LNP-held Brisbane seat of Bonner. An earlier report in The Australian said Labor’s national executive had intervened in Bonner to block Billy Colless, lead organiser of the public sector union Together Queensland, who had initially been the only nominee. Another Labor candidate in an LNP-held Brisbane seat is Rhiannyn Douglas, former teacher and current state party organiser, in Longman.
• The federal redistribution of the Northern Territory was finalised on January 7, confirming the boundary proposed in the draft report, which drew no dissenting submissions. The redistribution does the obvious thing of ceding the part of Palmerston that was formerly in Lingiari, which by my reckoning reduces Labor’s margin in Solomon from 9.4% to 8.4% and increases it in Lingiari from 1.0% to 1.6%.
• Angira Bharadwaj of News Corp quotes a Labor source on election timing saying “the cold hard truth is we aren’t ready and we won’t be ready for another month”.
paul A says:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 6:52 pm
Maaaaaate, Scott says the ALP can shed heaps in Victoria because they win there by huge margins. All the LNP gains will be in QLD so zero impact. Nothing to see here, move along. You know it makes sense.
Hanson won’t get 6% in Victoria so add more to the liberals but labor’s 25% looks ugly.
T#### just rescinded Biden Exec Order lowering Medicare and Medicaid drug prices
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/1/20/2298132/-T-just-rescinded-Biden-Exec-Order-lowering-Medicare-and-Medicaid-drug-prices?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
It was humorous when Dutton denied he was playing politics over the anti semetic attacks.
Of course every party is playing politics with it. Some more successfully than others.
I don’t think the Nationals are though. I am not certain that any of them knows what anti semetism means.
We should get the ANU to provide an opinion on Musk’s silly salutes at the inauguration.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/education/student-meeting-probe-found-no-nazi-gestures-anu-says/news-story/877363fcc8e8f86de723bc36a91cbfb3
FUBARsays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 6:25 pm
Taylormade says:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 6:20 pm
Sets them up for not being able to do anything because..encryption.. internationals..dark web..
=================================================
FUBARsays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 6:15 pm
“Crypto leaves lots of evidence making it relatively easy to track transactions – what do they know about these alleged transactions?”
===================================================
Each way bet Fubar proves everything he says is just political spin. Even tries to spin the same thing in opposing directions on the one thread page.
dave says:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 6:58 pm
They can probably spell anti-Semitism, though.
Nah I don’t think they could.
Trump Fires The Female Coast Guard Commandant
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/1/21/2298164/-Trump-Fires-The-Female-Coast-Guard-Commandant?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
Sooner or later with all these labor own goals and trending down for over a year from 57-43 labors vote federally a tipping point will be reached that is a steeper drop.
Has it happened already ? Newspoll will be very interesting of course.
If you could assemble all the Nationals/Country Party members elected over the past century it would look something like a sheltered workshop or an inbred Appalachian mountain community.
But it was amusing when Dutton denied he was playing politics over the issue. It’s rare when you get such blatant lying to your face. Like when Shorten denied he knew anything about Somyurek’s branch stacking. The gall of these people!
davesays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 7:03 pm
If you could assemble all the Nationals/Country Party members elected over the past century it would look something like a sheltered workshop or an inbred Appalachian mountain community.
=================================================
A shelter for muddle headed wombats.
Re William @5:15 PM – thank you.
Taylormade – here’s a link to another credible source.
Australia Federal Police Commissioner Reece Kershaw was meeting on Wednesday with state police chiefs to discuss an increase in antisemitic crime in Australia since the war between Israel and Hamas began on Oct. 7, 2023.
“We believe criminals-for-hire may be behind some incidents,” Kershaw told reporters in the national capital, Canberra.”
https://time.com/7209033/australia-antisemitic-attacks-investigation-foreign-actors/
So if all the LNP swing is in qld – how should we interpret what looks like an 8% swing (without anything coming off the greens) to Labor in the Brisbane seat poll ?
Is this the green shoots sprouting for Albo ?
Fubar – 25% in a state which has a huge amount of ALP seats, and all I read here all day, everyday, is that the ALP is supposedly on track “to pick up more seats in Vic”.
25% primary for the ALP in Victoria, and the Libs sitting on 38%.
So, in my raw reckoning, Labor is down 8% from the last election and the Libs are up there by 5%.
ie: a 13% swing to the Libs, and that’s before we look at the Hanson vote.
Yet, all I read all day on PB is that the ALP is on track to jag more seats there, and anyone who defers from that “logic” gets smashed on this site. The biggest wishcasting bullshit I’ve ever read.
I know you don’t, as you have warned many times that the ALP can’t take voters (or states) for granted.
He’s heading into “oncer” territory.
25% primary in woke-toria.
What could go wrong?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2025/01/21/trump-hhs-cdc-fda-communication-pause/
paul A says:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 7:09 pm
I apologise if my humour doesn’t come across in the reading.
Dutton will piss on Albo’s green shoots which will either and die.
Dutton is a political killer.
The Liberals are killers.
The cream puffs from the slp are sitting ducks.
Seen it all before.
Make the adjustment now.
The kids are getting excited now they have two pressies at once.
Unfortunately, when they unwrap them, there will be nothing but potato peels.
Re Ven @6:14.
From the comments in the Kos article you linked:
” Riff -> Guianaman
Jan 22, 2025 at 04:25:31 AM
Perhaps
was advised that if he puts his hand on an actual Bible it will spontaneously combust and melt everyone down who is looking on, like that scene in Indiana Jones”
paul Asays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 7:09 pm
===================================================
While i find your beliefs repugnant. If those figures occurred at the election it would be a Dutton Government. Which would likely implement nearly all your Trumpian beliefs. So i see why your are celebrating. You and your fellow RWNJ’s aren’t in power yet though. Let’s hope you never will be.
Lamentable, and frankly desperate, reporting by the Nine Papers about how close Penny Wong was to the front of the inauguration. I mean, really, that is how desperate they are for approval, that they cite that as a true sign of the strength of the relations.
Lars Von Triersays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 7:07 pm
So if all the LNP swing is in qld – how should we interpret what looks like an 8% swing (without anything coming off the greens) to Labor in the Brisbane seat poll ?
Is this the green shoots sprouting for Albo ?
==========================
Looks like the swing is on in Victoria Lars. Not sure how many seats the ALP hold’s there (i think it’s around 22 out of 39), but the 25% primary there is shit for them. It’s down 8.3% from the last election. That is a mega swing.
So the swing appears to be in , of all places, woketoria. Hence the shit national ALP primary figures from recent polls. What was it, 28% a couple of days ago.
Has Albo spent much time in Victoria? Any major announcements down there? Or state govt issues playing out federally? Dont think Dutts has done or said much for the benefit of Victorians. Maybe just the state govt on the nose and hitting the feds?
I’d like to see a Dunkley seat poll. If there is a decent swing on it will be seen there.
Well, the Liberal Jeer Squad in full voice with the Resolve figures.
Who can blame them as they really think they have the next election game, set and match.
Maybe, but while the Labor vote is not wonderful, 38% for the Liberals really does seem to be the high water mark for them. They have rarely managed a consisted PV over high 30s for the last year or longer.
Question for the Jeer Squad to consider is when the serious question to be asked whether sheer grumpiness is enough to swap to Dutton. I still doubt it.
Now if the LNP vote were in the low to mid-40s I would say things would be tough for Labor but having seen Labor – on several occasions leading 52-48 into an election campaign and still losing means it might be a good idea for the Jeer Squad to keep the Champers on ice of a few months yet.
The State Liberals in WA will lose in a few weeks…..Sure they will get some seats back, but they will lose the election and be out of office for another four years…..
Think on that Jeer Squad.
Entropysays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 7:23 pm
paul Asays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 7:09 pm
===================================================
While i find your beliefs repugnant. If those figures occurred at the election it would be a Dutton Government. Which would likely implement nearly all your Trumpian beliefs. So i see why your are celebrating. You and your fellow RWNJ’s aren’t in power yet though. Let’s hope you never will be.
————
Hear the drum beat.
Left, left, left right left.
Left, left, left right left.
On the march Entropy. On the march. Next door stop is Feb.23
You have to agree, the polling for “Dear Albo” has been terrible this year.
Expect to see him spending a bit more time in Victoria.
Regardless, he’s going to lose the next election. 25% in woketoria, is non recoverable
27% today, 28% a couple of days ago. What’s the next threshold. 26%?
Will be interesting watching the “labor loons” here wishcasting these primary figures into a stonking victory for “their Albo”. They’ll be doing it within an hour. Watch the site.
FUBARsays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 7:14 pm
paul A says:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 7:09 pm
I apologise if my humour doesn’t come across in the reading.
=======================================================
The person Paul A believes is a demigod. Is the same person you said this about:
1- The guy is a fucking goose. He dribbles shit.
2- an UnPresidential fuckwit who says stupid shit.
In his eyes you are probably just a blasphema.
It’s my view that Wong’s the most consummate FM since Evans. Every bone & nerve in her body would be repulsed by what Trump’s selling, but she has nonetheless put Oz first. Remember, Gorton was a senator, too.
Interesting the polling commissioned by 9 Entertainment versus the polling commissioned by The Guardian.
Me?
9 Entertainment are attempting to influence.
And, as I understand internal Party polling following the change in leadership is not what the Liberals had hoped for, the government maintaining a healthy advantage.
This casts more doubt on the polling for 9 Entertainment.
Then there is the “T” word.
paul Asays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 7:32 pm
Entropysays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 7:23 pm
paul Asays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 7:09 pm
===================================================
While i find your beliefs repugnant. If those figures occurred at the election it would be a Dutton Government. Which would likely implement nearly all your Trumpian beliefs. So i see why your are celebrating. You and your fellow RWNJ’s aren’t in power yet though. Let’s hope you never will be.
————
Hear the drum beat.
Left, left, left right left.
Left, left, left right left.
On the march Entropy. On the march. Next door stop is Feb.23
You have to agree, the polling for “Dear Albo” has been terrible this year.
Expect to see him spending a bit more time in Victoria.
Regardless, he’s going to lose the next election. 25% in woketoria, is non recoverable
27% today, 28% a couple of days ago. What’s the next threshold. 26%?
Will be interesting watching the “labor loons” here wishcasting these primary figures into a stonking victory for “their Albo”. They’ll be doing it within an hour. Watch the site.
==================================================
My money is you not being around that long either. Probably being banned well before the election. For posting some sort of repugnant fascist literature that would make even Steve Bannon blush.
JSW Group to invest $35 bln in India’s Maharashtra state
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/jsw-group-invest-35-bln-indias-maharashtra-state-2025-01-21/
“Jan 21 (Reuters) – Billionaire Sajjan Jindal-led JSW Group said on Tuesday that it will invest 3 trillion rupees ($34.67 billion) in the Indian state of Maharashtra to expand the conglomerate’s presence in electric vehicles, batteries, steel, and green energy sectors.
The ports-to-cement JSW conglomerate and the government of the western Indian state of Maharashtra – home to the country’s financial hub of Mumbai – signed an agreement on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum, in Davos, Switzerland.
Typical tubers grown in northern Hebei and Inner Mongolia are often twice the size of a baseball.
The investment will fund facilities for electric vehicle and lithium-ion battery production, steel manufacturing expansion, and renewable energy projects, including solar modules.
State chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, in a post on social media platform X, said that the investment would create 10,000 jobs and provide a “huge boost to Maharashtra’s industrial environment.”
The Maharashtra government will offer fiscal incentives and expedite clearances for the group’s projects as part of the agreement, JSW said.
FUBARsays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 7:14 pm
paul A says:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 7:09 pm
I apologise if my humour doesn’t come across in the reading.
==============
All good FUBAR. I got the message.
Thanks also for sticking up for a bit of common sense on this site too, especially with poll figures.
You are all over it
wranslide @ #1474 Wednesday, January 22nd, 2025 – 7:23 pm
It’s a sign of how professional she is that all the scribblers can write is “how close” she is to the ceremony.
Thank goodness we have a FM thinking about the opportunities for Australia and not reducing this down to a purely transactional shitshow as the Greens here would want our government to do.
‘Ven says:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 6:58 pm
T#### just rescinded Biden Exec Order lowering Medicare and Medicaid drug prices
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/1/20/2298132/-T-just-rescinded-Biden-Exec-Order-lowering-Medicare-and-Medicaid-drug-prices?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web‘
==========================
Dutton reckons he is going to cut all sorts of things and that he will let us know after the election should enough turkeys vote for christmas.
Clive Palmer ads during the tennis.
Rabbiting on about COL.
Authorised Mineralogy.
Black and gold colours.
Surely people will not be taken in again but is he our Trump
Poll says people think they will be worse off of 2025.
They sure as hell likely to be if Dutton is Prime Minister.
Tricotsays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 7:32 pm
Well, the Liberal Jeer Squad in full voice with the Resolve figures.
Who can blame them as they really think they have the next election game, set and match.
Maybe, but while the Labor vote is not wonderful, 38% for the Liberals really does seem to be the high water mark for them. They have rarely managed a consisted PV over high 30s for the last year or longer.
Question for the Jeer Squad to consider is when the serious question to be asked whether sheer grumpiness is enough to swap to Dutton. I still doubt it.
Now if the LNP vote were in the low to mid-40s I would say things would be tough for Labor but having seen Labor – on several occasions leading 52-48 into an election campaign and still losing means it might be a good idea for the Jeer Squad to keep the Champers on ice of a few months yet.
The State Liberals in WA will lose in a few weeks…..Sure they will get some seats back, but they will lose the election and be out of office for another four years…..
============
Except tricot, we had one of the labor loons here carrying on about how wonderful the Resolve poll was a day or so ago. Of course, when the numbers don’t suit, we all know what you lot think.
Enjoy reading the poll data for “Resolve” tricot. Have a good scroll thru tonight.
I suppose the Labor posters here will suddenly start to dislike Resolve, starting in about 5 mins time.
Does anyone know the sample. ie: pissy or around the 1200 mark?
laughtongsays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 7:45 pm
Clive Palmer ads during the tennis.
Rabbiting on about COL.
Authorised Mineralogy.
Black and gold colours.
Surely people will not be taken in again but is he our Trump
==================================================
Nasty divisive dud Dutton is our Trump. Clive is just a fat rich clown.
Population Ponzi scheme also catching up with federal labor not enough medical staff now on top of house builders for the massive amount of people labor are still flooding Australia with.
Labor cannot sell their achievements how the hell in the resolve poll on aged care can the liberals be in front given the garbage that went on under Morrison?
Noticed 35-54 age group I think it was with labor now being smashed in that age group.
All that spending in WA and visits from Albo maybe annoying voters on the East coast as well.
Take a month off for polls open so we have about 100 days of this gov term left .Out of time Labor to turn it around .Hold on by finger nails not minority but losing outright.
State WA election is what ? take a month off so it’s 45 days away.
The labor gov in VIC and NSW are not helping feds either.Crime is insane in Victoria it was poison in the Qld and NT elections.
A good poll for the LNP and Paul A begins measuring the drapes in Yarralumla.
Karma Log No. 1
https://www.axios.com/2025/01/22/police-union-trump-jan-6-pardons
This group endorsed Trump in 2016, 2020 and 2024 the latter of which they are currently choking on I’m sure.
Feel the burn boys! You voted for this.
So much karma being consumed.
A “fake poll” Peter C?
Resolve is in the Ann Selzer arena, perhaps you think.
The labor luvvies on this site thought Resolve was wonderful the other day.
They don’t now, do they.
How ironic if Victoria makes Peter Craig Dutton our next PM.
Well I am going to wait until after the Prahan and Werribee By elections before deciding if State labor is in terminal decline in Victoria. If there is an anti-labor swing it will show up there.
From just being out and about I haven’t picked up any anti labor sentiment beyond a few people moaning about state debt and certainly nothing at the level of the Dictator Dan rhetoric from a couple years ago.
”
Confessionssays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 7:54 pm
Karma Log No. 1
President Trump’s near-total pardon of Jan. 6 rioters was denounced by the Fraternal Order of Police, the largest police union in the U.S., and the International Association of Chiefs of Police on Tuesday.
The big picture: The groups said they’re deeply discouraged by pardons and commutations made by both the Biden and Trump administrations of individuals convicted of killing or assaulting law enforcement officers.
Driving the news: The groups said in a statement they firmly believe those convicted of such crimes should serve full sentences.
“Allowing those convicted of these crimes to be released early diminishes accountability and devalues the sacrifices made by courageous law enforcement officers and their families,” per the statement.
“When perpetrators of crimes, especially serious crimes, are not held fully accountable, it sends a dangerous message that the consequences for attacking law enforcement are not severe, potentially emboldening others to commit similar acts of violence,” the unions said.
https://www.axios.com/2025/01/22/police-union-trump-jan-6-pardons
This group endorsed Trump in 2016, 2020 and 2024 the latter of which they are currently choking on I’m sure.
Feel the burn boys! You voted for this.
”
As someone said, which did not make sense to me, Karma is a “b****
Lars Von Triersays:
Wednesday, January 22, 2025 at 7:58 pm
Why is that ironic ?
Dr Fumbles – you probably need to get out a bit more.
Peter C is active on the Victorian social scene, so maybe organise a catch up.
25% primary for the ALP federally in Victoria.
Yep, if you’re a Victorian ALP supporter, I’d say you probably need to get out a bit more.