Perhaps reflecting by the imminence of a federal election, polling seems to be picking up quicker after New Year than usual:
• The Financial Review has the latest Freshwater Strategy poll on its regular monthly schedule, presently only available in the paper’s digital print edition, recording no change to the Coalition’s 51-49 lead on two-party preferred. This is despite a slight improvement in Labor’s position on the primary vote, up two points to 32%, with the Coalition steady on 40% and the Greens down a point to 13%. Conversely, Peter Dutton draws level with Anthony Albanese at 43% apiece on preferred prime minister, which he had never quite managed in this series before. Anthony Albanese is down two on approval to 32% and down one on disapproval to 50%, while Peter Dutton is down one to 36% and steady on 40%. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1063.
• YouGov has a federal poll that’s yet to appear on its website, but which has a headline two-party result of 51-49 to the Coalition, compared with 50-50 at the last poll in November – though the primary vote numbers look quite a bit more like 50-50 if preference flows are applied strictly as per the 2022 election result. The primary votes are Labor 32% (up two), Coalition 39% (up one), Greens 12% (down one) and One Nation 7% (down two). Anthony Albanese records improved personal ratings at 40% approval (up four) and 55% disapproval (down one), which is also true to a lesser extent of Peter Dutton, up three to 43% and up one to 49%. Albanese leads 44-40 on preferred prime minister, out from 42-39. The poll was conducted January 9 to 15 from a sample of 1504.
We’ve also had YouGov’s head of Australian political polling, Amir Daftari, relate on X that polling of 630 respondents from October to January suggests Labor is poised to win the seat of Brisbane from the Greens, with the latter running third on 23% to the LNP’s 35% and Labor’s 34%, which would translate into an easy win for Labor after the distribution of Greens preferences, reversing what happened in 2022.
Further:
• A Liberal preselection for the northern Sydney seat of Bradfield on Saturday was won by Gisele Kapterian over Warren Mundine by a margin of 207 to 171, with cardiologist Michael Feneley managing only 16 votes and another mooted contender, local councillor Barbara Ward, seemingly not making it to the starter’s gate. The seat will be vacated by retiring Liberal member Paul Fletcher and contested for a second time by teal independent Nicolette Boele, who came within 4.2% in 2022. Both Antony Green and I have calculated a post-redistribution Liberal-versus-teal margin of 2.5%, following its absorption of parts of abolished North Sydney.
• The Canberra Times reports the Liberal Senate candidate for the Australian Capital Territory, Jacob Vadakkedathu, faces a party vote for his disendorsement over accusations of branch stacking, after a petition to the management committee attracted the requisite 30 signatures from voting members.
• Lydia Lynch of The Australian reports Kara Cook, former Brisbane councillor and a lawyer specialising in domestic violence cases, is set to be preselected as Labor’s candidate for the LNP-held Brisbane seat of Bonner. An earlier report in The Australian said Labor’s national executive had intervened in Bonner to block Billy Colless, lead organiser of the public sector union Together Queensland, who had initially been the only nominee. Another Labor candidate in an LNP-held Brisbane seat is Rhiannyn Douglas, former teacher and current state party organiser, in Longman.
• The federal redistribution of the Northern Territory was finalised on January 7, confirming the boundary proposed in the draft report, which drew no dissenting submissions. The redistribution does the obvious thing of ceding the part of Palmerston that was formerly in Lingiari, which by my reckoning reduces Labor’s margin in Solomon from 9.4% to 8.4% and increases it in Lingiari from 1.0% to 1.6%.
• Angira Bharadwaj of News Corp quotes a Labor source on election timing saying “the cold hard truth is we aren’t ready and we won’t be ready for another month”.
C@tmomma says:
Monday, January 20, 2025 at 8:14 am
meher baba,
The article about Dutton’s Long Lunch policy stated that it was squarely aimed at appealing to, and shoring up the vote of, the Coalition’s core small business constituency.
_____________________________________________
It’s not about the people who are having the lunches. It’s about the people who are providing them, many of whom have never recovered from the impact of the pandemic on their businesses and then the interest-rate driven restrictions on lifestyle expenditure.
I don’t support it, but it will be more attractive to voters than you think, including hospitality industry employees, rather than just small business owners.
It’s like the pokies in clubs and hotels. The big benefits are reaped by a small number of parasites, but they hold all their employees to ransom.
banquo911 @ #48 Monday, January 20th, 2025 – 8:53 am
I would appreciate articles from The AFR. I just don’t have the $$ to pay for that.
For balance, BK would link to articles from The Australian. As I refuse to give Rupert Murdoch a cent of my money I cannot put their politics articles up. So maybe 1 or 2 from there would be okay. 😉
Yes def time to freshen up dawn patrol – with more entertaining and challenging content for readers.
C@t is already crab walking away from a daily commitment to publish based on that last post.
I will not be without anything to do. Apart from our small property and looking after the sporting facility, the rubber is about to hit the road with a $3m building program for which I am taking the lead on behalf of the board of the local aged care facility. It is a very complex build which requires the complete demolition of the “guts” of the facility where the confluence of four buildings and additions occurs. This will all be done in carefully planned stages which are designed to allow the facility to continue to run effectively and safely.
My capacity and capability will be quite challenged during the 12 months of activity.
TPOF,
That may be so but as someone who ventures to clubs and pubs for meetings every month, and out for the odd meal or coffee, I get to take their pulse regularly and they are in rude health, let me assure you. They are not on their financial knees and they have rebounded well since the pandemic.
BK
The dawn patrol as provided by you, was the highlight of my morning.
Thank you so much for your commitment and service in this space.
I don’t know how you did it for so long!
Btw hope your son is doing well.
Dutton’s long lunch tax plan will make ALL the difference to the cost of living that he is always banging on about.
Has Albo come out against the lunch tax deductions?
There probably focus group testing it before making a decision?
Lars Von Trier @ #53 Monday, January 20th, 2025 – 8:58 am
Jeez you come out with some unmitigated bollocks sometimes, Lars Von Trier. Fyi, I have already committed to stepping into BK’s big shoes. I have clearly laid out my limitations and appreciate the help of others that I will get.
Honestly, what is the point of YOU here, Lars Von Trier? Your constant sniping, and misinformed and disinformational takes, to what end?
”
Vensays:
Monday, January 20, 2025 at 8:54 am
”
sprocket_says:
Monday, January 20, 2025 at 6:59 am
I fail to to see Aussie merch at Woolies or tax free lunches for small business on this list…
”
So management of Economy is no longer an issue for 3/4 of population but COL is an issue for 3/4 of population after 2 budget surpluses by ALP. Do you see the disconnect with people thinking or there is one more phrase, which is at the back of my mind which I cannot recollect at the moment?
”
The other phrase is ‘cognitive dissonance’
Yet again, L’Arse has diarrhoea, all over the blog.
I can give a summary of the herald sun in a nutshell.
Labor bad. Coalition good. Melbourne town is a hell hole.
Nothing good ever happens. If the weather is bad in QLD and NSW, somehow Victoria is a part of it. If crime is reported from other states, that too has something to do with Victoria.
All the sporting and other events that happen in Victoria, are somehow problematic but not if they took place elsewhere. If hospitals are not doing so well in other states, that too is somehow the fault of Victoria.
Signed Jeff Kennett, Steve Price, Rita Panahi, et al.
You get the picture.
The herald sun is not known as the herald scum for nothing.
”
Griffsays:
Monday, January 20, 2025 at 7:40 am
Congratulations on your retirement BK and thanks again for your sterling work this past decade! Very glad to hear that you will be still around.
”
+1
BK
You are a star and I’m sure you will do a great service with the aged care facility!
C@t maybe you can publish say during the week and we can do the weekend.
The court of PB public opinion can pronounce on which is the more interesting and informative product ?
You must admit there is a tendency to go Radio Moscow in some of the existing commentary?
#weatheronPB
Cool fresh air greets me,
as it stirs the distant trees,
and brings them inside.
Thanks heaps c@t for taking up the dawn patrol!
Late riser
Lovely cool breeze this morning in my part of world, but due to warm up soon enough.
Let’s hope the latest viruses circulating overseas don’t evolve into a fully blown pandemic. So help me dog! I really don’t want to go through that shit again.!! Grrrr
OC
Agree. The longer it goes on, the less will come back.
And would the jobs have to be advertised and applied for? Their resignations will have taken effect after all. I presume their entitlements will all have to be paid out.
”
”
Indeed!
Republicans behaved as if that is the first time a powerful man treated a woman badly when in power.
Diogenes @ #70 Monday, January 20th, 2025 – 9:17 am
Yes the entitlements should be paid out- I think most of the psychiatrists will be living off accrued leave.
The jobs should be advertised and recruitment processes gone through but the Director General has the power to make appointments outside the usual governance. A feature of the resolution of the Shephard dispute was that all those who resigned had to be re-appointed without challenge and the brave hearted few of young surgeons who had taken temporary positions were dismissed.
”
”
Even Koch brothers worked discreetly in the background.
Musk, Zuckerberg and Bezoshave no shame at all. They are brazen with their evil acts.
Good gravy, no clue how BK was so comprehensive and tidy. Per C@t’s request;
Behind the Paywall
TikTok restores service in US, thanking Trump – (The Australian $);
The video sharing app had shut down over the weekend, with sevices being restored on Sunday. TikTok credited US president Donald Trump for the reversal, though former pres Biden had previously said that no ban would be enforced. The TikTok CEO will attend Donald Trump’s inauguration today.
80 killed, thousands displaced in Colombian guerrilla violence – (The Australian $);
A fresh outbreak of guerrilla violence between The National Liberation Arm and a spliter of the defunct FARC guerrilla force amid a faltering peace process in Colombia has left more than 80 people dead, including civilians, and displaced thousands in just four days, officials reported Sunday.
Venezuela announced the launch of “a special operation to assist the civilian population displaced from Colombia,”
Bipartisan pushback as national censor requests more power – Joseph Olbrycht-Palmer(The Australian $);
The Australian Classifications Board is seeking power to reclassify content every 10 years, as compared to the status quo of at the request by the communications minister. In an apparently rare showing of unity, Jason Clare & Barnaby Joyce have voiced there opposition to any change.
Dutton catches Albanese as preferred PM as law and order worries grow – Ronald Mizen(AFR $);
Apparently based on vibes, and without substantiation – Mizen tells readers that Dutton’s pitch that Albanese is a weak leader is cutting through, and the recent and widely reported anti-Israel assaults have weakened the ALPs position, resulting in Dutton drawing level on PPM, and the importance of law and order growing cor the electorate.
Labor pledges $2 billion to back green aluminium – Ronald Mizen(AFR $);
An announcement by Anthony Albanese due today funding the transition of Australia’s 4 aluminium smelters to running on renewables has already been panned by the Coaltion as handouts for billionaires.
Feedback, suggestions, request welcome.
BK,
I am adding my many thanks to the chorus for your DP for so many years.
I am glad that you will still be commenting, during what will be a busy 12 months.
Good one banquo911 , one should never be afraid of dissenting opinions and voices.
Today’s David Rowe
BK – thank you from me also for all your early morning efforts putting together Dawn Patrol over so many years.
Edit: thank you also to those who have picked up the torch to keep Dawn Patrol going.
Yep.
PB lunches will need to convert to business meetings. I can bring my invoice book if that helps.
Thanks, banquo911! 🙂
As I said earlier, it will take a community to fill BK’s big shoes. And, as a communitarian I like it that way.
I’ll have the Foie Gras a la tax deduction please.
Meanwhile the workers will be expected to work over their lunchtime and BYO.
For Sohar and the Naysayers and Carpers! Please note that I included articles that were critical of Joe Biden today, stories that viewed the ME Ceasefire from the perspective of both sides
dave @ #28 Monday, January 20th, 2025 – 8:05 am
In your dreams! Your energy runs out after one line. 😐
It looks like we’ll be getting articles from The High Times in our new, distributed, DP.
UK Cartoons and other miscellany
Patrick Blower
Nicola Jennings
Guy Venables
Jonsey
Morten Morland
Christian Adams
Tom Gauld
Thank you compadres Alpha Zero, Douglas and Milko and HoldenHillbilly! And banquo911 bringing up the rear. 🙂
Douglas and Milko @ #84 Monday, January 20th, 2025 – 10:03 am
That’s only if nath and Lars Von Trier take over. 😆
Is the Latrobe Valley full of cookers?
I cannot see anything about the cartoon that would make so many people complain.
“Black & white editorial cartoon by Lee Judge and distributed by King Features, appearing in the print edition of the Latrobe Bulletin Jan 16, 2025.
Beneath the tagline “The proper way to fly a flag on Trump’s inauguration day” a drawing of the White House depicts the US national flag flying inverted, a traditional signal of distress.
This cartoon was deemed sufficiently “offensive” for the paper to cease publication of editorial cartoons entirely.”
C@t
Yep 😉
Lars Von Trier says:
Monday, January 20, 2025 at 9:04 am
Has Albo come out against the lunch tax deductions?
There probably focus group testing it before making a decision?
————————
Its this Lars Von Trier way, of saying Peter Dutton will be replaced by Sussan Ley , Angus Taylor or by another member of the federal Liberal party, when the federal lib/nats remain in opposition after the 2025 federal election result
BK,
I dont know if I speak for all lurkers and semi-lurkers but I suspect a large majority of them.
Warm thanks for providing the news feeds in the mornings. They have been the perfect way to start to the day for us information/political junkies. All the best in your “retirement”.
Although, I generally hate this phrase (particularly when americans use it) … “Thankyou for your service”!
Cheers
I cannot see anything about the cartoon that would make so many people complain.
There’s a couple of ways to analyse that cartoon.
1. Is it a sarcastic comment on the state America will be in with Trump in the WH? That is, one of distress?
2. Or is it stamping Trump’s tribe’s flag on the White House?
You know I keep wondering whether Trump and his mates’ obsession to ‘Drill Baby Drill!’ will make them rich or tank the price of oil on the global market?
Anyway, one good thing about Trump’s election before our own is that we can see exactly what a Dutton government would do.
OC
Given many of the psychiatrists are senior, they will have plenty of leave so they would be in no rush to go back. I think the knock on effects of this will be catastrophic for about five years, especially as it was crap already.
Thanks BK for you long and helpful summary of the news of the day from a variety of sources. Your contributions have been, for a long time, my early port-of-call for some balanced news.
All we have here in the cave is the largely Liberal leaning West newspaper, which even in its death throes, still pumps out mainly Harvey Norman ads coupled with the daily Editorial factored in by a former NewsCorp guy.
I for one am looking forward to the Lars/nath version of the Dawn Patrol.
I expect to see it at 6am sharp, tomorrow and every subsequent day.
Thank you for your service/
BK @ #11 Monday, January 20th, 2025 – 7:05 am
I understand, but am very sorry to hear it, BK. You concise and unbiased selection of daily news stories was (along with William’s contributions, of course) what kept me here on PB, and (I suspect) some others as well.
The “enshittification” of PB will no doubt proceed apace.
Home Affairs Minister James Paterson said if the Coalition won government it would introduce minimum sentences of at least six years for Commonwealth terror offences, and minimum sentences of at least 12 months for displaying hate symbols such as flags associated with terror groups.
A new Commonwealth offence for threatening places of worship would also be created, with penalties of five years to seven years for aggravated offences.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01-20/coalition-vows-minimum-jail-terms-for-anti-semitic-acts/104836490
So, when the Labor government introduces their laws in February along those same lines the Coalition will support them?
”
C@tmommasays:
Monday, January 20, 2025 at 8:55 am
This is interesting from the ‘What is an Oligarchy?’ article I posted today:
What is an oligarchy?
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Rich people of Russia, East Europe and Asia. 🙂
Rich people of West are Billionaires because Oligarchs are corrupt and Billionaires are philanthropists.