Federal polls: Freshwater Strategy and YouGov (open thread)

Two new polls show green shoots for Labor on the primary vote, though not enough to impact the headline two-party results.

Perhaps reflecting by the imminence of a federal election, polling seems to be picking up quicker after New Year than usual:

• The Financial Review has the latest Freshwater Strategy poll on its regular monthly schedule, presently only available in the paper’s digital print edition, recording no change to the Coalition’s 51-49 lead on two-party preferred. This is despite a slight improvement in Labor’s position on the primary vote, up two points to 32%, with the Coalition steady on 40% and the Greens down a point to 13%. Conversely, Peter Dutton draws level with Anthony Albanese at 43% apiece on preferred prime minister, which he had never quite managed in this series before. Anthony Albanese is down two on approval to 32% and down one on disapproval to 50%, while Peter Dutton is down one to 36% and steady on 40%. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1063.

• YouGov has a federal poll that’s yet to appear on its website, but which has a headline two-party result of 51-49 to the Coalition, compared with 50-50 at the last poll in November – though the primary vote numbers look quite a bit more like 50-50 if preference flows are applied strictly as per the 2022 election result. The primary votes are Labor 32% (up two), Coalition 39% (up one), Greens 12% (down one) and One Nation 7% (down two). Anthony Albanese records improved personal ratings at 40% approval (up four) and 55% disapproval (down one), which is also true to a lesser extent of Peter Dutton, up three to 43% and up one to 49%. Albanese leads 44-40 on preferred prime minister, out from 42-39. The poll was conducted January 9 to 15 from a sample of 1504.

We’ve also had YouGov’s head of Australian political polling, Amir Daftari, relate on X that polling of 630 respondents from October to January suggests Labor is poised to win the seat of Brisbane from the Greens, with the latter running third on 23% to the LNP’s 35% and Labor’s 34%, which would translate into an easy win for Labor after the distribution of Greens preferences, reversing what happened in 2022.

Further:

• A Liberal preselection for the northern Sydney seat of Bradfield on Saturday was won by Gisele Kapterian over Warren Mundine by a margin of 207 to 171, with cardiologist Michael Feneley managing only 16 votes and another mooted contender, local councillor Barbara Ward, seemingly not making it to the starter’s gate. The seat will be vacated by retiring Liberal member Paul Fletcher and contested for a second time by teal independent Nicolette Boele, who came within 4.2% in 2022. Both Antony Green and I have calculated a post-redistribution Liberal-versus-teal margin of 2.5%, following its absorption of parts of abolished North Sydney.

• The Canberra Times reports the Liberal Senate candidate for the Australian Capital Territory, Jacob Vadakkedathu, faces a party vote for his disendorsement over accusations of branch stacking, after a petition to the management committee attracted the requisite 30 signatures from voting members.

Lydia Lynch of The Australian reports Kara Cook, former Brisbane councillor and a lawyer specialising in domestic violence cases, is set to be preselected as Labor’s candidate for the LNP-held Brisbane seat of Bonner. An earlier report in The Australian said Labor’s national executive had intervened in Bonner to block Billy Colless, lead organiser of the public sector union Together Queensland, who had initially been the only nominee. Another Labor candidate in an LNP-held Brisbane seat is Rhiannyn Douglas, former teacher and current state party organiser, in Longman.

• The federal redistribution of the Northern Territory was finalised on January 7, confirming the boundary proposed in the draft report, which drew no dissenting submissions. The redistribution does the obvious thing of ceding the part of Palmerston that was formerly in Lingiari, which by my reckoning reduces Labor’s margin in Solomon from 9.4% to 8.4% and increases it in Lingiari from 1.0% to 1.6%.

Angira Bharadwaj of News Corp quotes a Labor source on election timing saying “the cold hard truth is we aren’t ready and we won’t be ready for another month”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,673 comments on “Federal polls: Freshwater Strategy and YouGov (open thread)”

Comments Page 1 of 34
1 2 34
  1. Labor primary vote average has been around 32% after the 2022 federal election and the federal lib/nats combined primary vote averaging around 37/38%.
    No matter what the federal lib/nats and propaganda media units are trying to do, its not getting the desired results , the majority of non lib/nats voters are not switching to the lib/nats.
    The lib/nats are getting the voters who vote for lib/nats leaning minor partys, which is not helping the lib/nats to gain the non lib/nats held seats

  2. I fail to to see Aussie merch at Woolies or tax free lunches for small business on this list…

    However, the poll shows Mr Dutton is successfully tapping into community angst over law and order, or at least bringing the issue to the fore.

    When asked to select up to three priority areas that respondents wanted the federal government to focus on, crime and social order ranked fifth of the 16 options, with 26 per cent of voters ranking it a top-three issue, up 3 percentage points from last month and 11 percentage points from late 2022.

    It overtook environment and climate change, which was nominated by 18 per cent of respondents, down six percentage points from December. In late 2022, 31 per cent of respondents nominated the environment and climate change as a key concern.

    Resolve has been the friendliest series for the LNP, and this issues list is an insight into the concerns of the sample.

  3. So basically the Libs had a 3 point difference on primary at the 2022 election and now they have a 8 point difference on primary.

    Labor hardheads would be ecstatic.

  4. I fail to to see Aussie merch at Woolies or tax free lunches for small business on this list…

    Tax & gov spending? 😆

  5. Homan said he did not know why Chicago “became a focus of attention” and said the incoming administration’s enforcement goals are much broader than one city.

    “ICE will start arresting public safety threats and national security threats on day one,” he said. “We’ll be arresting people across the country, uninhibited by any prior administration guidelines. Why Chicago was mentioned specifically, I don’t know.”

    “This is nationwide thing,” he added. “We’re not sweeping neighborhoods. We have a targeted enforcement plan.”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/immigration/2025/01/18/chicago-immigration-raids/

    Chicago was mentioned as red meat thrown to the base.

  6. Good morning, Dawn Patrollers.

    After my recent sabbatical and more than ten years of pulling together the Dawn Patrol, I have come to the decision to retire from the activity that I have enjoyed for so long.
    I hope that it has been worth it.
    It is my intention to continue to inhabit Poll Bludger and join in the conversations in this Australian election year and what promises to be a very interesting time in the US.
    I wish all patrollers the very best.
    BK

  7. Hey BK thanks for your decade of Dawn Patrol! Having only stepped in a handful of times for you, I honestly don’t know how you managed it so well for so long.

  8. BK
    Your Dawn Patrol was the anchor of the morning. Thank you. All the best and looking forward to your continued participation.

  9. Thanks for all those years of Dawn Patrol BK! It’s been my starting point for news each morning.
    Always greatly appreciated.
    Enjoy your increased family time.

  10. Congratulations on your retirement BK and thanks again for your sterling work this past decade! Very glad to hear that you will be still around.

  11. Good Morning Dawn Patrollers!

    In good news, the first Israeli hostages have been released by Hamas. In the Israeli-occupied West Bank, buses were awaiting the release of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli detention. Hamas said the first group to be freed in exchange for the hostages included 69 women and 21 teenage boys.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/israeli-hostages-released-as-gaza-ceasefire-takes-hold-20250119-p5l5nb.html

    Is the start of a ceasefire the end of a conflict? History says only sometimes. In the Middle East, in particular, permanency is a fluid concept. Within the Gaza ceasefire – which came into force overnight – exist obstacles to a genuine end to the violence. The foundations of peace rest on reconciling seemingly irreconcilable interests, and building a strength from that fragility.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/is-the-start-of-a-ceasefire-the-end-of-a-conflict-history-says-only-sometimes-20250119-p5l5iq.html

    ‘Should we grieve, rejoice or cry?’: Palestinians in Gaza react to ceasefire
    Celebrations break out across the territory but many are worried the deal will break down and war will resume.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jan/19/palestinians-in-gaza-react-to-ceasefire

    Israel is Refusing to Release Key Political Prisoners in Ceasefire. Hamas says it will continue pushing to free Marwan Barghouti and Ahmad Sadaat in ongoing negotiations.
    https://www.dropsitenews.com/p/israel-refusing-to-release-marwan-barghouti-ahmad-saadat

    ‘Has the world gone mad? It has’: foreign reporters share a view of Trump from abroad
    Journalists from countries that have seen challenges to democracy give their view on the second Trump presidency. Journalists from Hungary, India, El Salvador, The Philippines, and Spain contribute.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jan/19/trump-democracy-orban-modi-franco

    The world braces for Trump, hoping for the best, unprepared for the worst. His pick for secretary of state may have given measured assessment of world affairs, but ‘crazy’ Trump will call the shots.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jan/19/the-world-braces-for-trump-hoping-for-the-best-unprepared-for-the-worst

    Maureen Dowd says, Trump, the returned colossus, brings a bitter chill to Washington.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-the-returned-colossus-brings-a-bitter-chill-to-washington-20250119-p5l5kb.html

    Bill Wyman thinks Trump’s second inauguration won’t showcase America’s strength, but its weakness.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-s-second-inauguration-won-t-showcase-america-s-strength-but-its-weakness-20250116-p5l4yz.html

    Trump’s family circle has a very different look as he returns to the White House.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-s-family-circle-has-a-very-different-look-as-he-returns-to-the-white-house-20250119-p5l5im.html

    Should a US president by judged by what they achieved, or by what they failed to do? Joe Biden’s administration is over. Though we have an extensive record, it is difficult to assess his presidency. At its outset, Biden promised hope, a return to normalcy, to be a bridge between generations, to restore democracy. Four years on, what remains?
    https://theconversation.com/joe-bidens-presidency-will-be-remembered-as-one-that-did-not-match-the-times-and-a-leader-who-failed-to-realise-it-246320

    In his farewell address, outgoing US President Joe Biden warned “an oligarchy is taking shape in America of extreme wealth, power and influence that literally threatens our entire democracy”. The comment suggests that, under Donald Trump’s second term as president, it will be billionaires rather than the people who shape public policy.
    https://theconversation.com/what-is-an-oligarchy-and-is-the-united-states-poised-to-become-one-247566

    Mehdi Hasan puts it this way…Joe Biden had one job. And he failed. The president was supposed to defeat Donald Trump and end the threat he posed to our democracy. Yet, here we are.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jan/19/joe-biden-had-one-job-and-he-failed

    Despite the eulogies, the postwar order did little for peace – and fuelled the rise of populism. ‘Many of those who gained from the neoliberal order are at the heart of the Trump project, too; not least “tech bros” such as Elon Musk.’
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/jan/19/postwar-liberal-order-populism-rise

    Deportations, tariffs, pardons: what Trump has planned for day one. The incoming president is ready to sign a slew of executive orders on day one of his second term. Here’s what’s planned.
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jan/19/trump-plan-day-one

    Back on home turf are Peter Dutton’s Australian culture wars a winning strategy – or just hot air?
    The conservative Coalition leader wants to portray the Labor government as out of touch with its traditional working-class base.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/jan/19/are-peter-duttons-australian-culture-wars-a-winning-strategy-or-just-hot-air

    Dutton might once have been ‘unelectable’, but that may change if he draws Labor into a race to the right. At the state level, Labor has legitimised the idea of a ‘tough’ approach by claiming to offer it – then have been thrashed by oppositions promising to be even tougher.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/jan/18/dutton-might-once-have-been-unelectable-but-that-may-change-if-he-draws-labor-into-a-race-to-the-right

    Can Australia’s political centre hold off the populist embers being set ablaze by Trump? Donald Trump is unlike any politician Australia has ever seen. But could a demagogue in his image emerge?
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/jan/18/can-australia-political-centre-hold-off-the-populist-embers-being-set-ablaze-by-trump

    Opposition Leader Peter Dutton will promise tax offsets for work lunches in his first commitment of the election year, but he faces internal instability after a bruising preselection stoush in a key Sydney seat.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-pledges-tax-breaks-as-mundine-camp-declares-war-over-failed-liberal-preselection-20250118-p5l5ft.html

    Labor, Coalition and Climate 200 set up unbranded Facebook pages to throw mud at each other
    Liberal party’s ‘Teals Revealed’ scrutinises voting record of Climate 200-backed independents, six of whom won former Coalition seats at the 2022 election.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/jan/18/labor-coalition-and-climate-200-set-up-unbranded-facebook-pages-to-throw-mud-at-each-other-ntwnfb

    Alan Kohler says Trump’s victory carries two important lessons for politicians in Australia and everywhere: first, jobs don’t matter as much as you think — prices matter more; and second, productivity and economic growth have a dark side.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01-20/donald-trump-dark-side-productivity-and-growth/104830730

    More than half a million workers earn income from NDIS, Bill Shorten says in parting shot at critics.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/more-than-half-a-million-workers-earn-income-from-ndis-shorten-says-in-parting-shot-at-critics-20250116-p5l4x5.html

    Stephen Grenville opines that the public agrees on climate, so why can’t our politicians?
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/the-public-agrees-on-climate-so-why-can-t-our-politicians-20250117-p5l55z.html

    Labor will offer $2 billion to help aluminium smelters cut their use of fossil fuels and shift to renewable energy in a bold election pitch to support thousands of manufacturing jobs, contrasting the subsidies with the Coalition plan to build nuclear power stations.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-s-2-billion-counter-bid-for-a-power-hungry-industry-20250119-p5l5jt.html

    Finally, Sean Kelly observes that Albanese once called John Howard the worst PM ever. Now he’s trying to emulate him.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-once-called-john-howard-the-worst-pm-ever-now-he-s-trying-to-emulate-him-20250119-p5l5jv.html

    Cartoon time!

    Megan Herbert

    Joe Benke

    Nicola Jennings

    From the Internet

    🙂

  12. Jim Chalmers’s plans to increase the tax rate on superannuation accounts worth more than $3m are set to be blocked by parliament, with the Treasurer failing to win the necessary crossbench support amid warnings that farmers and small business will be forced to sell their assets.
    Coalition opposition to the “unfair” overhaul means the government must gain the support of the Greens and at least three Senate crossbenchers to legislate the Better Targeted Superannuation Concessions bill, which Dr Chalmers labelled “unfinished business”.
    The Australian has confirmed with seven out of 10 crossbenchers that they are opposed to the legislation, which doubles the tax rate on super earnings above $3m from 15 per cent to 30 per cent – in large part because it applies the tax increase on unrealised gains.
    David Pocock, David Van, Gerard Rennick, One Nation’s Pauline Hanson and Malcolm Roberts, Ralph Babet and Tammy Tyrrell rejected the “super tax” plan.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics-now-chalmers-fails-to-sway-crossbench-on-super-tax/live-coverage/d5042d54dbb2c938db2e814ee3894238?amp

  13. Thank you BK for your service. The Dawn Patrol has given me a good start to the day, with a grasp of what is important in the news for the last decade. Enjoy your retirement and thanks to the Bludgers who are picking up the role.

  14. Oh noes, BK! However, an understandable decision to have made considering all the circumstances. Good to hear that you’re not going away entirely.

    I guess that means that the PB Collective will be taking over? Which also shows that your shoes are so big to fill it will take myself, HoldenHillbilly, Douglas and Milko and Alpha Zero collectively to fill them.

  15. I’ve really appreciated BK’s efforts through the years. I’ve especially enjoyed his comments on each story which showed consideration and wisdom. Thanks BK I will be looking forward to seeing your comments on this site.

  16. Thankyou BK – the Dawn Patrol was the most valuable service possible. It gave us access to all of the important news minus the waffle and ad-breaks. I know so many people who went to this blog for that service alone.
    US Cartoons:















  17. BK,
    Thanks for your amazing efforts over the years!
    The Dawn patrol was my daily go-to , and appreciate C@t&Co taking over the reins.
    Enjoy your retirement.

  18. World News & Politics:
    Aides to President-elect Donald Trump briefed Republican leaders Sunday on a slew of executive orders Trump plans to unleash Monday— including a 35-page energy omnibus geared toward unlocking energy pipelines and opening the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to drilling, according to two people familiar with the discussion. In addition to summarizing immigration, energy, and government reform executive orders, the officials also discussed the process for removing “insubordinate employees” and the legal and constitutional guardrails that may prevent Trump from firing employees who don’t follow orders. They also spoke about Trump planning actions to reverse President Joe Biden’s diversity, equity and inclusion orders across the federal government.
    An executive order on unleashing American energy will be particularly detailed. It will include permitting, coal, and natural gas policies, and put a stop to Green New Deal and climate spending initiated by Democrats. Trump’s staff had already begun circulating copies of early executive orders with agency chiefs, according to sources familiar with the discussions, granted anonymity to share the information. In addition to a flurry of immigration actions, the Trump team has focused on several moves to reverse Biden’s rules allowing remote work among the federal workforce following the Covid-19 pandemic.
    Lawmakers are also anticipating the details of Trump’s plans to save TikTok from a federal ban set to take effect at midnight on Sunday. Tiktok had voluntarily shut down its services in anticipation of the deadline but then brought them back online following a Sunday TruthSocial post where Trump vowed to “save TikTok.”: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/01/19/gop-leaders-trump-executive-orders-00199183

    White House principal deputy national security adviser Jon Finer said on Sunday that President-elect Trump’s team provided “significant support” in the recent ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas.
    “We got significant support from the Trump team. We [have] been, you know, very transparent about that. We’ve kept them fully up to speed,” Finer told ABC News’s Jonathan Karl on “This Week.”
    “They deployed members of their incoming team to the region. The president said — president-elect said helpful things about the need to get this deal done,” he added: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5094430-white-house-adviser-says-trump-team-provided-significant-support-in-ceasefire-deal/

    TikTok said Sunday it was restoring service to users in the United States just hours after the popular video-sharing platform went dark in response to a federal ban, which President-elect Donald Trump said he would try to pause by executive order on his first day in office: https://apnews.com/article/tiktok-ban-trump-biden-china-bdc79b7ce741a81761f67ea56d410103

    Ex-Trump adviser Steve Bannon said he sees the presence of billionaire CEOs and tech moguls at President-elect Trump’s inaugural events as a white flag of surrender from “the oligarchs.”: https://www.axios.com/2025/01/19/steve-bannon-trump-zuckerberg-inauguration

    Most U.S. adults (9 in 10 Republicans and close to half of Democrats) say they support mass deportations of immigrants living in the country illegally — but that enthusiasm quickly erodes when presented with options over how to carry them out, according to a new Axios-Ipsos poll: https://www.axios.com/2025/01/19/poll-americans-mass-deportation-policies-trump

    Kid Rock claimed President-elect Donald Trump called him to ask if the Secret Service barred him from bringing strippers to Trump’s “Victory Rally.” Rock, whose real name is Robert Ritchie, said Trump had gotten wind of a comment Rock made about the Secret Service telling him “no girls on poles” during his performance at the rally, which is happening Sunday at the Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C. “Friday morning I got a call from the President and [Trump’s spouse] Melania and it was kind of mind-blowing, I’ve tried to leave him alone, he’s got a lot on his plate, I would think, right now,” Rock said on “Fox & Friends” on Sunday. “He called and he goes, ‘Did the Secret Service really tell you that you can’t use strippers?'” Rock added. Rock said he told Trump “No, sir, I was just joking around,” to which the President-elect apparently replied “Ah, that’s funny.”: https://www.ibtimes.com/kid-rock-claims-trump-asked-secret-service-wouldnt-allow-strippers-maga-rally-3759978

    A man accused of setting fire to a strip mall in Wisconsin where a congressman’s office is located told authorities he was motivated by the federal ban on the popular TikTok video-sharing platform. Republican Rep. Glenn Grothman had voted last April for a bill that mandated TikTok’s China-based parent company sell its U.S. operation by Sunday: https://apnews.com/article/tiktok-ban-fire-congressmans-office-wisconsin-a815e6592bea4c028b1c7748491461ed

    Transport and Internal Trade Minister Anita Anand says Canada is ready to take on U.S. president-elect Donald Trump and levy countermeasures immediately, should the incoming commander-in-chief follow through with his threat to impose punishing tariffs on all Canadian imports on day one of his presidency. “Retaliatory measures are ready, and we will use all tools in our toolbox to ensure that we’re protecting Canadian workers and Canadian industry,” Anand said in an interview on CTV’s Question Period, airing Sunday. “If pushed, our response will be the single largest trade blow the U.S. economy has ever endured, given that Canada is America’s largest export market — larger than China, Japan, the U.K. and France combined,” Anand told host Vassy Kapelos: https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/article/canada-threatens-single-largest-trade-blow-to-us-if-trump-follows-through-on-tariffs/

    Syria’s new administration has banned all Russian, Iranian, and Israeli goods from entering the country in a new decree issued by the country’s finance minister on Jan. 17. Any relevant goods discovered at land and sea border crossings will be confiscated, according to the ban, reported regional media outlets. The decision came shortly after the country had restricted entry of Iranian and Israeli passport holders: https://kyivindependent.com/syria-bans-goods-from-russia-iran-and-israel/

    Nearly 200,000 Syrian refugees have returned home since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in early December, the UN refugee chief Filippo Grandi said Saturday ahead of a visit to the region.
    Those returns came after a lightning offensive by an Islamist-led coalition of rebels ousted Assad in December, raising hopes of an end to a 13-year civil war that killed over half million dead and sent millions seeking refuge abroad. Between December 8 — when the regime fell — and January 16, some 195,200 Syrians returned home, according to figures published by Grandi on X: https://www.timesofisrael.com/nearly-200000-syrian-refugees-have-returned-since-assad-regime-fell-un-says/

    Antonio Guterres, the United Nations Secretary-General, announced during a visit to the headquarters of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) in the town of Naqoura, southern Lebanon, that more than 100 weapons warehouses belonging to Hezbollah and other armed groups had been discovered in the area. Guterres called on Israel to cease occupying Lebanese territories where military operations continue despite the ceasefire agreement. On Friday, January 17, 2025, following his arrival in Lebanon, Guterres referred to the presence of Israeli military operations within the UNIFIL area of operation. He emphasized that Israeli army activities inside Lebanese territory must be ended: https://irannewswire.org/hezbollahs-weapons-caches-over-100-discovered/

  19. Morning all. BK thanks so much for your wonderful contribution to this blog every morning over the years. Australian politics badly needs your wit and wisdom.

    That being said, enjoy your “retirement” and I still look forward to reading your posts here.

  20. C@t&co will not be taking over. Lars and I will be. The new editorial board will also consist of Taylormade, centre, pied piper, fubar and Irene. Thank you.

  21. BK … respect.

    Enjoy sleeping in.

    Re the polling in William’s opening post. It seems natural that, the less the electorate has seen of Albo and his gang over summer, the less negative are its feelings towards them. After all, Albo’s best moments of the 2022 campaign occurred when he was laid up with COVID.

    However, I’m starting to suspect that the anti-Labor vote might have reached a bit of a high-water mark. Some of Dutton’s announcements and pronouncements lately appear to be directed squarely at his conservative base: eg, his refusal to be filmed or photographed in front of Indigenous flags, and now his eschewal of the good old right-wing concept (“neoliberal” if you like) that there’s no such thing as a free lunch.

    It’s difficult to see these sorts of policies attracting too much support to Dutton from the voters in the middle: the tradies will like them, but nowadays a growing proportion of the tradies vote for the Coalition anyway (despite the fact that quite a few of them continue to belong to militant unions: it’s a funny old world).

    One gets the sense that Dutton is looking to pick up a swag of seats – maybe a dozen or so – but is not truly expecting to win enough to carry him into government (or to get close enough to form a government with Katter and, if she survives, Dai Le). Dutton has people working for him who know what they are doing, and I think they’d be getting him to adopt a different approach if they felt there was more than an outside chance of a Coalition victory. Of course they haven’t given up altogether, but they seem to have decided to focus more on shoring up their base for the time being.

    Sorry Mundo and the other doomsayers for Labor. You’ll probably have to wait another three years.

  22. meher baba,
    The article about Dutton’s Long Lunch policy stated that it was squarely aimed at appealing to, and shoring up the vote of, the Coalition’s core small business constituency.

  23. Chinese hypersonic air-to-air missiles have undergone extreme heat-resistance testing to meet the stringent performance requirements of the PLA Air Force, according to scientists involved in the project. This is the first official confirmation of the existence of this mysterious weapon, which could pose an unprecedented threat to US military aircraft, including the B-21 stealth bomber that is currently undergoing flight testing.
    Details of the final evaluations of full-scale missile prototypes were given in a peer-reviewed paper published in Chinese-language journal Equipment Environmental Engineering last month. These evaluations were conducted in an arc-heated wind tunnel.
    “By heating the gas with an electric arc, [this type of tunnel] can generate hot air flows reaching thousands to tens of thousands of degrees Celsius,” the project team, led by senior scientists Cheng Gong and Huang Yimin with the China Airborne Missile Academy (CAMA), wrote in the paper.
    The arc-heated wind tunnel can operate continuously for an hour or more, but due to its enormous power consumption, it is “super expensive” to run, Cheng and Huang said. As a result, it is mainly used for the most challenging space missions, such as simulating the landing of Tianwen-1 spacecraft on Mars.
    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3294958/china-runs-final-tests-hypersonic-air-air-missile-extreme-mars-mission-tunnel

  24. I must admit i didn’t know the superannuation changes applied to unrealised gains – is there any other tax this applies to? Is there compensation for unrealised loses? No wonder it is going to be rejected

  25. Are the NSW Psychiatrists still resigning tomorrow?
    The EDs will be full of mental health patients in a few days. I hope it’s sorted soon.

  26. Dio
    Yes today’s the day
    The contingency plan is locums (love to see what the market is like at the moment), overseas trained graduates and tele hubs.

    An important feature of resignations rather than a strike, if we go on the example of Shepherd in 1985, is that when the dispute is settled many of the more senior people will use this to bring forward retirement and will not be back. It will take a decade to restore the current, inadequate, service

  27. HH and Cat thanks for the already valuable stand-in service on the international and domestic dawn patrols.

    This one is interesting about the new Syrian government.

    “ Syria’s new administration has banned all Russian, Iranian, and Israeli goods from entering the country in a new decree issued by the country’s finance minister on Jan. 17. Any relevant goods discovered at land and sea border crossings will be confiscated, according to the ban, reported regional media outlets. The decision came shortly after the country had restricted entry of Iranian and Israeli passport holders:”
    https://kyivindependent.com/syria-bans-goods-from-russia-iran-and-israel/

    Of bordering countries, note that Turkey is not restricted. Pretty obvious who now holds the influence in Syria.

  28. Thanks, BK for your epic dedication throughout the years. I am one of those who utilised your free, wonderful service. You are an admirable man.

  29. Cheers bk. Love your work.

    From Saturday, but just saw this morn;

    Albanese’s inaction drives his own party towards extinctionRichard Flanagan (The Sydney Morning Herald):

    And yet, under Anthony Albanese, Labor gives the ever stronger impression that it has never seen a corporation that it won’t prostrate itself to. Each knee-step taken in his bizarre pilgrimage of national humiliation, from his log cabin origins to his house on the hill, is loudly tolled by the sound of the corporate cash registers jubilantly ringing with growing profits. Qantas and the promised legislation to make it pay customers compensation for late or cancelled flights? No action — ka-ching! The gambling industry and the ads more than 70% of Australians want gone? No action — ka-ching! More coal mine approvals, new gas fields approvals, $1 billion for a Gina Rinehart-backed mine? No problem! Ka-ching! Even a spineless environmental measure like Tanya Plibersek’s “nature positive” bill is axed by Albanese at the behest of the West Australian mining industry. Ka-ching! Ka-ching! Ka-ching!Albanese’s inaction drives his own party towards extinction — Richard Flanagan (The Sydney Morning Herald): And yet, under Anthony Albanese, Labor gives the ever stronger impression that it has never seen a corporation that it won’t prostrate itself to. Each knee-step taken in his bizarre pilgrimage of national humiliation, from his log cabin origins to his house on the hill, is loudly tolled by the sound of the corporate cash registers jubilantly ringing with growing profits. Qantas and the promised legislation to make it pay customers compensation for late or cancelled flights? No action — ka-ching! The gambling industry and the ads more than 70% of Australians want gone? No action — ka-ching! More coal mine approvals, new gas fields approvals, $1 billion for a Gina Rinehart-backed mine? No problem! Ka-ching! Even a spineless environmental measure like Tanya Plibersek’s “nature positive” bill is axed by Albanese at the behest of the West Australian mining industry. Ka-ching! Ka-ching! Ka-ching!

    On the polling, as I’ve observed previously when the greens lose on their primary, labor loses on 2pp. The labor political party reay wants to pull its head in, stop throwing shade (extreme, radical, whatever other boring ad hominems) and get on board with working constructively with Australia’s only left wing major party.

  30. I will add my thanks to BK. Not being a morning person myself, it’s incomprehensible how you did it, let alone for so long. Enjoy the freed up time. Looking at your history I’m sure you’ll use it wisely.

  31. davesays:
    Monday, January 20, 2025 at 8:08 am
    C@t&co will not be taking over. Lars and I will be. The new editorial board will also consist of Taylormade, centre, pied piper, fubar and Irene. Thank you.
    _____________________
    Happy to supply the Herald Sun ones.

  32. Taylormade @ #45 Monday, January 20th, 2025 – 7:50 am

    davesays:
    Monday, January 20, 2025 at 8:08 am
    C@t&co will not be taking over. Lars and I will be. The new editorial board will also consist of Taylormade, centre, pied piper, fubar and Irene. Thank you.
    _____________________
    Happy to supply the Herald Sun ones.

    I have many scubscriptions iffin yous need a help pulling anything together.


  33. sprocket_says:
    Monday, January 20, 2025 at 6:59 am
    I fail to to see Aussie merch at Woolies or tax free lunches for small business on this list…

    So management of Economy is no longer an issue for 3/4 of population but COL is an issue for 3/4 of population after 2 budget surpluses by ALP. Do you see the disconnect with people thinking or there is one more phrase, which is at the back of my mind which I cannot recollect at the moment?

  34. This is interesting from the ‘What is an Oligarchy?’ article I posted today:

    What is an oligarchy?
    Like many of the academic and scientific categories we still use today, oligarchy was originally defined by the Greek philosopher Aristotle.
    In ‘The Politics’, he argued people are “political animals”, social by nature, and instinctively want to live in a community. He studied different governments of the ancient world and concluded there were six essential types.

    A state could be ruled by a single leader, a small group of elites, or through mass participation of the people. If the leadership acted in the common advantage (koinê sumpheron), he termed these constitutions to be monarchy, aristocracy or polity, respectively.

    If the constitutions became corrupt and the leadership acted only to advance their own self-interest, he labelled them tyranny, oligarchy and democracy.

    So for Aristotle, an oligarchy is a corrupt form of government. It is when power is in the hands of a small group of elites who advance their own interests rather than the common good.

    In Aristotelian terms, democracy is also a corrupt form of government in which the majority uses its power to abuse minorities. While the term democracy has been rehabilitated and is usually seen as a positive, the word oligarchy has retained its negative connotations.

    https://iep.utm.edu/aristotle-politics/

Comments Page 1 of 34
1 2 34

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *