Writing in the News Corp papers, Phillip Hudson of Bondi Partners summarises the election date situation so I don’t have to:
The first choice the PM needs to make is whether to allow parliament to go ahead as scheduled for the first two weeks of February or to visit Governor-General Sam Mostyn to call the election … Might Albanese break convention and surprise us all by ending the guessing game — and catching almost everybody off guard — by calling an unlikely poll in mid-January for February 22? … The attraction of a March election is made difficult by the Western Australian state election scheduled for March 8, which is also a long weekend in the southern half of the country, while March 15 clashes with the Formula 1 Grand Prix. March 29 and April 5 are a possibility, especially if there’s a February rate cut. April 12 is emerging as a red hot option as the WA election would be over on the weekend it needs to be called. That scenario would allow for parliament to be dissolved without having a budget … If he waits any longer he will have to deliver another budget as there’s no chance of an election on April 19 or 26 due to a later than usual Easter then Anzac Day commemorations. The final window is May 3, 10 or 17.
Also of note:
• This week’s Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition’s two-party lead at 51.5-48.5, in from a 53-47 blowout last week that was entirely due to an aberrant result on respondent-allocated preferences from Greens voters. Labor is in fact down a point on the primary vote to 30%, with the Coalition steady on 40.5%, the Greens up half a point to 12.5%, and One Nation up one to 4.5%. The two-party result based on 2022 election preference flows is 50.5-49.5 in favour of the Coalition, compared with 50-50 last time. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1721.
• A keenly fought Liberal preselection will be held on Saturday to choose a successor to Paul Fletcher in the northern Sydney seat of Bradfield, where the party is under pressure from teal independent Nicolette Boele. This is largely shaping up as a battle between moderates who favour Gisele Kapterian, international trade lawyer and former staffer to Julie Bishop, and conservative backing Warren Mundine, who among other things was one of two Indigenous spearheads in the campaign against the October 2023 Voice referendum, together with Senator Jacinta Price. Kapterian’s backers include Joe Hockey, Nick Greiner, Barry O’Farrell, Gladys Berejiklian and Sussan Ley. Mundine has been endorsed by Tony Abbott, John Anderson and Jacinta Price, but faces the difficulty of being 68. Also contesting the preselection are local councillor Barbara Ward and cardiologist Michael Feneley.
• The Nationals have announced that their candidate for Hunter is Sue Gilroy, registered nurse, founder of a business coaching company and past candidate for Shooters Fishers and Farmers. The seat is held for Labor by Dan Repacholi on a post-redistribution margin of 4.9%.
sprocket_ “So long lunches will be tax deductible, but not any alcohol consumed during such long lunch.
Is there a loophole lurking there? Or will the army of invoice/receipt inspectors see to that…”
It will presumably be subject to random audits. I think the hard bit for the ATO would not be to establish that no alcohol was consumed, but that the meal was only attended by the owner/employees of the small business and their clients, and not, for instance, but the owner’s friends and family.
C@tmomma says:
Sunday, January 19, 2025 at 12:14 pm
How is it possible 10% more Democrats than Republicans didn’t vote
They have been asked why. Mainly due to Biden’s Pro Israel stance and providing weapons to Israel.
Biden wasn’t on the ballot.
Abstaining from voting because of Israeli genocidal practice & thus ensuringUS support for that .. is truly moronic..
About time the world got off the US$ & stopped supporting / subsidising their way of life.
From the American Exit Poll:
36% of voters were Pro Choice but said that the Economy was only Fair or Poor.
So they voted for Trump who will reignite inflation with his tariffs. 😐
Griff: “Misprint. Up to $10m revenue.”
Thanks. You’ll see that I had already corrected my earlier post. $10m per annum is a sensible limit for such a policy, albeit that IMO it’s not a sensible policy. A far better and fairer policy would be to give some sort of subsidy (direct or through the tax system) to the cafes, restaurants and clubs so that all Australians can benefit. That’s what Labor should argue.
Sceptic
Indeed, in his near 30 years in parliament, he has not successfully prosecuted a single significant reform. Too harsh? Name one.
What horseshit.
You obviously did not follow the Aged Care Royal Commision which was withering in its criticism of successive Liberal governments – starting with John Howard’s promoting of the for-profit shocks.
And the subsequent Albanese reforms addressing the neglect, not limited to 24/7 nurses, improving wage disparity in the sector, and introducing comprehensive quality standards.
I could go on…
Sceptic @ #1402 Sunday, January 19th, 2025 – 12:19 pm
They were casting a vote as a report card on the last 4 years, also because they saw Kamala Harris, who was on the ballot, as an integral part of the Administration who made the decisions about things they didn’t like.
meher babasays:
Sunday, January 19, 2025 at 12:07 pm
CORRECTION: it was wrong. It’s an annual limit of $10 million. My bad, I should never trust anything that gets posted on here.
=====================================================
Did the poster on here make a mistake or did the Murdoch rag muck up again?
I can’t read beyond the paywall though.
Though if the latter, i find your accusation very unfair.
Holdenhillbillysays:
Sunday, January 19, 2025 at 11:34 am
Peter Dutton is vowing to bring back the taxpayer-funded long lunch, but unlike the 1970s it has to be alcohol free.
The Opposition Leader is speaking in the target seat of Brisbane on Sunday morning and will unveil an election policy to provide small businesses with a yearly tax deduction of up to $20,000 for taking clients out to restaurants, cafes and pubs.
The measure, available to businesses with a turnover of up to $10,000, will see entertainment expenses excluded from the fringe benefits tax for two years, but alcohol is carved out of the tax break.
Mr Dutton said cafes, restaurants, clubs and pubs were the “lifeblood of so many local economies around the country”.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/dutton-to-revive-the-long-lunch-just-dont-order-a-drink/news-story/4a5ec1142a1d2df52b328bebf9803846?amp
Sounds like Trump will need a section of the Oval Office set aside to run his shonky crypto business and all the other money making scams he currently has. See the vast range of items on sale now, all designed to fleece the suckers.
https://www.trumpstore.com
Carve outs from taxes are never good meher.
However we’ve already exempted ev and hybrid cars from fbt (and no doubt there are others)
At the moment you can get a “minimal” fbt exemption for 5k – so it’s not a huge change
So agree bad policy – but not a vote changer either way.
meher baba @ #1404 Sunday, January 19th, 2025 – 12:21 pm
Maybe Labor should just say, pay the Hospitality Industry Workers properly and make sure their work conditions are respected in the breach.
From personal experience, my son’s best friend from school works in the Hospitality industry. He had to work for 15 hours without a break a couple of weeks ago! He doesn’t complain because he needs the income.
Anyway, I bet the Pubs and Clubs and Restaurants deal has been cooked up with the likes of former Liberal MP, Craig Laundy and other staunch Liberals in that industry.
meher baba says:
Sunday, January 19, 2025 at 12:21 pm
Griff: “Misprint. Up to $10m revenue.”
Thanks. You’ll see that I had already corrected my earlier post. $10m per annum is a sensible limit for such a policy, albeit that IMO it’s not a sensible policy.
_________
It will be a vote winner in outer suburban Sydney. Plenty of small business owners that enjoy a tax deduction. Dutton states that one can take ’employees’. Fun for all the family 😉
sprocket_ “What horseshit.
You obviously did not follow the Aged Care Royal Commision which was withering in its criticism of successive Liberal governments – starting with John Howard’s promoting of the for-profit shocks.
And the subsequent Albanese reforms addressing the neglect, not limited to 24/7 nurses, improving wage disparity in the sector, and introducing comprehensive quality standards.
I could go on…”
—————————————————————————
Well, yes, you can try to give Albo personal credit for anything that has happened since he became PM in 2022. But that’s hardly the point, is it?
It’s pretty much the case that, in his more than 25 years in parliament before he became PM, Albo was known for little more than making the occasional verbal attacks on the Opposition in Parliament (which I never found particularly witty or amusing, but the Labor diehards adored them). And for being all pally and jokey with Chrissie Pyne whenever they popped up on TV together.
Oh and, of course, for saving Rudd’s career by persuading him not to run in the ballot the day after the coup, so that Albo could then make the teary-eyed, totally disingenous claim later on that the party had never had a proper opportunity to vote on the matter. And encouraging Rudd to run against Gillard in 2012 and a couple of times thereafter, with the reward being made Deputy PM going into the election: an election in which he did major damage to Labor’s already dire prospects by somehow deciding it was ok for him to have a drink in public with Craig Thomson.
And, most recently, the Voice debacle.
The truth with Albo is that he’s not that bright and he’s never been much good. He’s overachieved big time relative to his talent. But he’s better than Dutton, and that’s really all that matters right now.
Bystandersays:
Sunday, January 19, 2025 at 12:12 pm
Beansays:
Sunday, January 19, 2025 at 8:21 am
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01-18/nt-child-protection-law-proposed-changes-branded-discriminatory/104831226
Fuck I love this country. Stolen Generations? Fuck yeah lets do it again, why not.
And people wonder why more and more people give less of a fuck about patriots day, sorry, Australia Day
Actually the latest polls are showing a growing number of people who give a fuck about it. Perhaps you could consider emigrating. You’d obviously be much happier elsewhere.
====================================================
Bean is an Indigenous Australian i gather. Why should he emigrate because his country was invaded and his people slaughtered. I assume you believe Palestinian should do likewise on their land too.
Entropy: “Did the poster on here make a mistake or did the Murdoch rag muck up again?
I can’t read beyond the paywall though.
Though if the latter, i find your accusation very unfair.”
Well, if it was the fault of the newspaper, then I apologise if any offence was taken.
But the figure always seemed absurd to me, and I should have researched it some more before commenting on it (it only took me a couple of clicks to confirm that it wasn’t $10k).
C@tmomma @ #1406 Sunday, January 19th, 2025 – 12:22 pm
The reasons Harris lost the election had very little to do with policies. However, if policies did play a small part, then Harris lost even whatever tiny advantage she might have had when she was asked WTTE what she would have done differently to Biden and she couldn’t think of anything at all.
https://edition.cnn.com/politics/harris-2024-campaign-biden/index.html
Harris is not stupid, but that comment was dumb as a bag of hammers.
It reminds me of Bowen saying WTTE “well, if you don’t like our policies, don’t vote for us”. And of course, people didn’t.
You have to wonder how such supposedly smart people can be so stoopid.
Herald Sun 19/01
Victoria’s $1.7bn public transport ticketing upgrade is in turmoil, with tap-and-go travel using credit cards or smart devices still years from being rolled out across trains and trams.
The Sunday Herald Sun can reveal that part of the consortium overseeing the myki revamp has walked away from the lucrative deal, and that key project milestones are months behind schedule.
_____________________
Looks like another stuff up under way.
Deputy Premier Ben Carroll signed that deal when he was the Public Transport Minister. He needs to take full ownership.
On top of the VCE debacle as Education Minister , it’s been one disaster after another for him since becoming Deputy Premier.
meher baba @ #1412 Sunday, January 19th, 2025 – 12:31 pm
No, it really isn’t.
When you are offered a choice between dumb and dumber, or bad and worse, you should perhaps step back for a minute and think about whether there might not be another alternative.
Only businesses doing well will get the advantage of this tax deduction though. If you are struggling business you and your business workers will still be bringing their own sandwiches.
It is giving a deduction to the most well off only.
Taylormadesays:
Sunday, January 19, 2025 at 12:36 pm
==============================================
Any comment on WB’s assessment of the YouGov poll?
Does that constitute poll denial too?
Free lunches for business mates of Dutton, not for you.
almost fits on a bumper sticker
P1: “When you are offered a choice between dumb and dumber, or bad and worse, you should perhaps step back for a minute and think about whether there might not be another alternative.”
—————————————————————————–
The alternative I’d like to see is a sensible right faction Labor PM, which would be a restoration of the natural order of things.
You surely realise that I’m much too right-wing in my views to consider voting for the Greens.
Where I live, I’ve basically got the choice of voting 1 for Julie Collins or 1 for any other candidate bar the Lib and having my preference ultimately end up with Julie Collins. I’d vote for an Allegra Spender-type candidate if one showed up around here, but that isn’t going to happen. And thank goodness I don’t live in the electorate for which Wilkie is the member: he’s the sort of political opportunist I simply couldn’t vote for. I even prefer the Libs to him.
Just getting my head around the Trump crypto. launching a business in an industry that he has promised to deregulate. People on here should have more respect for Trump. He is one of the greatest crooks in history.????
America IS STUFFED !.
I have a feeling he won’t see his term OUT !.
sprocket_: “Free lunches for business mates of Dutton, not for you.”
How about “Dutton’s solution to the cost of living crisis: getting you to pay for his mates’ lunch.”
Moore getting more interesting with a Teal joining in…
The must-win Federal seat of Moore has become a four-way contest as the teals roll out a candidate.
Currently held by the Liberals — and a must-win seat for Peter Dutton this Federal election — the contest has become complicated because sitting Liberal member Ian Goodenough lost preselection and will now go up against his old party as an independent.
To make matters worse for the Liberals, the teals are running psychologist Nathan Barton as their candidate, further splitting the vote.
“I’m fed up with how the big issues we’re facing as a community just get used for their own self-interest and political gain rather than trying to actually solve the problems.
“From the cost of living and housing affordability to health services and the energy transition, the major parties have played around with them all for far too long in attempts to wedge the other side for a political fix.”
Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200 has donated at least $320,000 to help teal candidates run in State and Federal seats.
No one yet knows where Mr Goodenough or Mr Barton will direct preferences.
Mr Barton, 46, will officially launch his campaign in Moore on Saturday, pitting him against Mr Goodenough and Liberal candidate Vince Connelly.
It sets up an intriguing contest in Moore, where Labor is running candidate Tom French.
“I feel really let down by the major parties,” Mr Barton told The Sunday Times.
Climate 200 has donated $30,000 towards Mr Barton’s campaign, having already donated $181,000 towards Kate Chaney’s campaign to retain Curtin.
About $50,000 has also been donated to teal candidate Dr Sue Chapman’s campaign in Forrest.
It’s also understood Climate 200 has made $20,000 donations to each of the teal candidates in the State seats of Nedlands, Churchlands and Cottesloe.
“Kate Chaney’s success in Curtin proved the desire of West Australians to elect an outstanding independent member to represent their interests rather than a political operative seeking to climb the greasy pole of major party politics,” Mr Holmes a Court told The Sunday Times.
https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-election/teal-wave-swells-as-moore-candidate-announced–c-17409016?utm_source=csp&utm_medium=portal&utm_campaign=Streem&token=aNmiiLMwnbD8cPaGnDGJzskmc2Ho1dQ8yRVHgCect6MQ%2F%2FJmsY%2FjqxOsWnzUA%2F%2FCmJoUisUly5k12TUP7RMK7A%3D%3D
Entropy
I was unaware that Bean is an aborigine and would not have spoken in that way if I did. I have a lot of empathy for the first nations people. They have every right to be pissed off that their land was stolen from them and I’m sure I would be be too in the same circumstances.
Some double talk here by the Teal running for Moore…
Mr Barton said he had no issues being funded by Climate 200.
“Climate 200 is supported by over 35,000 different people and Simon is just one of them,” Mr Barton said.
“There’s no influence here or any obligation made — I’ve stepped up to run as a candidate and remain exactly in line with my own personal values.”
Mr Barton said at this stage he was not intending to preference any candidate, most likely running an open ticket.
“At this stage we are not preferencing anyone. But we understand some people like to have a sense of being guided as to how to vote,” he said.
“We won’t do (preference) deals.
“But there might be a way to support people to understand what order (of voting) would align with their own values.”
Player One @ #1417 Sunday, January 19th, 2025 – 12:38 pm
You would assume this applies only to dining for customers and promotional purposes.
Back to the 80s
Anybody thought to do a check on the venue where Dutton made his announcement today, who owns it and their connection to the LNP?
meher babasays:
Sunday, January 19, 2025 at 12:53 pm
sprocket_: “Free lunches for business mates of Dutton, not for you.”
How about “Dutton’s solution to the cost of living crisis: getting you to pay for his mates’ lunch.”
============================================
I think your slogan ticks all boxes that should be ticked. Certainly would want to paint a Marie Antoinette like response to cost of living pressures faced by many.
The peasants are starving my lord.
Don’t worry, i’ll make business lunches tax deductible.
Though my one (above) is the hyperbole cartoon type response.
Oakeshott Country @ #1427 Sunday, January 19th, 2025 – 12:59 pm
And wasn’t that a raging success for the Budget Bottom Line? Not.
Just how many would be Liberals voters are out there, that are presently not voting Liberal, and would be convinced to change because of the return of the long lunch?
Should someone be on a policy security gate, before Dutton is allowed to address the public ?
Dutton was not well regarded by fellow Qld police and the reasoning is becoming obvious.
Perhaps a large cohort of moron workers will be convinced by their bosses that the business will provide a “nosh up” a number of times a year.
The lack of grog with the nosh up will be fixed via a card shuffle.
If Dutton (and it’s a big if) has success at an upcoming election, it will prove once and for all, that Australia voters are morons, and are happy to have a moron defending their right to be morons.
Entropy @ #1429 Sunday, January 19th, 2025 – 1:00 pm
He should be offering to make their Workers’ lunches tax deductible. 😐
Albanese was a very successful infrastructure minister and Infrastructure Australia was an initiative of his.
Compare that with conservative rorting and pork barreling
While it does not matter a toss, I think Albanese is a seasoned politician and leads a competent government – and has done for nearly three years.
The nay-sayers here want their cake and eat….be strong they say, go on the attack they say. …And, lots of other gratuitous “advice” from the arm chair.
Thing is, the nay-sayers are not in government and probably would be out of their depths running a social club meeting.
As far as Albanese being ‘not very bright’ as some would have it, he sure has surpassed most of us in achievement on this site.
Maybe Bruce Lehrmann is consulting with Dutton on policy.
This was the ‘business lunch’ Ch7 Spotlight paid whilst smooching him for the story…
Oakeshott Countrysays:
Sunday, January 19, 2025 at 12:59 pm
You would assume this applies only to dining for customers and promotional purposes.
Back to the 80s
=====================================================
Someone suggested it included taking your staff to dinner too. How true this is i don’t know. As the Murdoch rag article quoted is pay walled and some of what appears to be written in it was shown to be incorrect anyway.
I thought you’d been de-clawed sprocket ?
HH
Interesting.
Yesterday when I was walking the dog, there was an ad for “Your local club – part of the Community” on a passing bus. bOf course, no poker machines were shown.
I wondered why on earth the clubs felt the need to advertise now.
Sounds like the clubs and Peter Dutton have been talking.
Bystandersays:
Sunday, January 19, 2025 at 12:58 pm
Entropy
I was unaware that Bean is an aborigine and would not have spoken in that way if I did. I have a lot of empathy for the first nations people. They have every right to be pissed off that their land was stolen from them and I’m sure I would be be too in the same circumstances.
====================================================
Only from memory but i think he posted once about his Indigenous heritage?
Obviously my memory is not infallible.
Will Albo match the lunch tax deductions policy?
My guess is yes.
Entropysays:
Sunday, January 19, 2025 at 12:44 pm
Taylormadesays:
Sunday, January 19, 2025 at 12:36 pm
Any comment on WB’s assessment of the YouGov poll?
Does that constitute poll denial too?
_____________________
That’s his job to analyse polls.
But I do take what ever he has to say about the Teals with a grain of salt due to self interest.
I have never questioned polls like, Newspoll, Yougov, Morgan, Resolve etc and never will.
Just take what they say, make a few comments, then move on and wait for the next one.
I would only question a poll if it was an internal Party commissioned poll. Like the one Gillard used to knife Rudd.
For future reference you could always claim the polls have been targeting Coalition safe seats.
Experienced deniers often use that one.
Granny Anny @ #1433 Sunday, January 19th, 2025 – 1:01 pm
Which, with Dutton’s announcement today they are back to with a vengeance.
What things that I’ve said about the teals have you taken with a grain of salt due to self-interest?
Before Keating’s great tax reform in 1985, the top tax rate was 60% and this kicked in not too many multiples above the mean wage BUT deductibles were interpreted liberally.
On business lunches, I remember Keating’s attack in parliament along the lines of “the ordinary worker from Bankstown taking the train to work with his lunch in a paper bag while you spivs get the taxpayer to provide a car and have lobster and foie gras .”
Sounds like the clubs and Peter Dutton have been talking.
Craig Laundy-Peter Dutton, join the dots as Boerwar would say. 😐
Honestly, this latest policy from Dutton is a gimme for Labor. They just have to do the Treasury analysis of the same policy from back in the day and how much it cost the Budget Bottom Line and the, ‘spending like a drunken sailor’ lines write themselves. Doesn’t it just show, though, what’s ingrained in the Coalition’s DNA? Concessions for Mates and Donors.
I’m also wondering when Peter Dutton is going to front a Canberra Press Conference in front of the whole Canberra Press Gallery? So far he hasn’t had the guts.
Granny Annysays:
Sunday, January 19, 2025 at 1:01 pm
Albanese was a very successful infrastructure minister and Infrastructure Australia was an initiative of his.
_____________________
What’s the latest on Infrastructure Australia’s assessment of the SRL. In Victoria ?
Last i heard they were still waiting on Victoria to submit the business case.
But Albo has already committed $2.2 billion, contracts have been signed and work has started.
How do we know we are getting value for money if IA has not signed off on it.
Tax breaks for lunches for small businesses?
If you believe the small business lobby the owners are working too hard to take a break for lunch and can’t afford anything more than a Vegemite sandwich anyway.
Taylormadesays:
What’s the latest on Infrastructure Australia’s assessment of the SRL. In Victoria ?
Last i heard they were still waiting on Victoria to submit the business case.
But Albo has already committed $2.2 billion, contracts have been signed and work has started.
How do we know we are getting value for money if IA has not signed off on it.
__________________________
Normally I would agree with you but the SRL is so transformative that it will change the city in so many ways that I don’t think a standard assessment can really grasp.
It would be like asking for a cost benefit analysis of the Trans Siberian Railroad.
The SRL will make Melbourne liveable for longer. The Liberals should get on board. The SRL runs through almost every middle suburb in Melbourne and it’s popular.
Of course they need the lunch break tax break – they are all working extra hard to fund the public service defined benefit pension rort.
Rossmcg @ #1447 Sunday, January 19th, 2025 – 1:42 pm
With Turnover ‘up to $10 Million’ I would hardly class that as a small business.
Jeez, the Coalition have one overriding electoral principle: get your mates snouts back in the trough at the hard-working PAYE taxpayers’ expense.