This site’s renowned BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been given a seasonal makeover, now boasting state-level federal polling trends for the five mainland states (Tasmania being almost entirely lacking in published data). Its principal insight is that Labor has – assuming always that the polls are to be believed – a problem on its hands in Victoria. Two-party swings in the other states are in a narrow band from 1.2% in Queensland to 2.1% in New South Wales, but the current reading for Victoria has it at 4.6%, enough to wipe out the advantage Labor has established there in recent years. Labor can take some comfort in the fact that the state is not rich in marginal seats, a uniform swing of that size being only sufficient to cost it Chisholm and McEwen.
The state-level measures are created by combining separate trend measures for national voting intention and the respective states’ deviations from it, the data for which can be accessed from the “poll data” tab at the top of the BludgerTrack page. The only comparable effort I’m aware of is The Guardian’s poll tracker, which also has trend measures for a range of other demographic indicators, though it doesn’t seem to be drawing on too many data points for some of them. The big difference overall between the two is that The Guardian assumes the polls to be very heavily skewed to Labor, particularly on the primary vote, and duly points to a fairly comfortable Coalition win. BludgerTrack assumes the polls to be broadly accurate, particularly Newspoll and the related entities of Pyxis and YouGov, and has for some time pointed to a near dead heat on two-party preferred.
The imminence of a federal election notwithstanding, there is inevitably not much to report this time of year, although a The West Australian yesterday related that a very firm view had taken hold within Labor’s WA branch that the Prime Minister plans to call an election for April very shortly after the state election is held on March 8. It was also revealed yesterday that Victoria’s state by-election for Werribee will be held concurrently with the Prahran by-election on February 8.
”how closely does PB mirror Australian society?”
I don’t think that it would be close. For a start a majority of PB posters vote and support Labor, way more than the general community. There’s a significant minority of Greens, I expect way over the 1/8 in the general community. Coalition supporters are a small minority, unlike the general community.
Also, they are deeply engaged with politics, whoever they support. That doesn’t reflect the general community. Many are members of political parties, some are actively engaged in politics. Few in the general community are.
Also, we’re an older demographic. As far as I can tell, nearly all of us are over 50, many over 70.
Most but not all of us seem to be in professional employment or retired from it.
Anyway, that’s what I surmise. I don’t claim to know.
Yeah the PB community is definitely toward the Labor side of things. Mainly because when I say what I hear non-political people are saying that worry me I get attacked, so, guess that’s what we’re going into this election campaign.
So then let’s all shut up and trust that Albo’s team has everything under control~
”
C@tmommasays:
Friday, January 10, 2025 at 7:09 pm
Ven @ #1835 Friday, January 10th, 2025 – 6:42 pm
”
Wat Tylersays:
Friday, January 10, 2025 at 6:15 pm
Ven @ #1803 Friday, January 10th, 2025 – 5:41 pm
Kirsdarke
Are there any Governor and US Senator elections in California?
Next gubernatorial election will be in 2026. Incumbent Governor Gavin Newsom is prevented by term lim Okits from running again, so it’s an open race. The next US Senate race will be in 2028 for the seat currently held by Democrat Alex Padilla (his intent is unknown at this point.)
”
Next Californian Governor in 2026 will be a Republican.
Because ignoring Climate Change and encouraging the electorate to do the same is a winner..
”
C@tmomma
No. A party that claims to understand and claims to do something about Climate change, was so ill-prepared when catastrophic nature’s event happened. A lot of people lost everything except their lives.
I the 6th richest economy in the world is so ill-prepared, it shows the world will face very difficult time in future due to climate change effects.
The issue regarding representativeness isn’t just political leaning, it’s political engagement.
You guys are batshit crazy weirdo and/or nerds by comparison to the vast majority of Australians.
Not me though.
Ven @ #1839 Friday, January 10th, 2025 – 6:42 pm
Bullshit. After Global Warming the Muskscum crash the US economy 7 ecology over the next 2 years, nowhere but the US Slave States & the Central Ameristans will elect a Republican for a generation. It will be like Hoover in the 1930s (though Trump is nowhere near as competent a human being as Hoover was) – there will be another US FDR.
But if you adjust for false class consciousness among the working class ‘small business’ subcontractors and their immediate families then the balance on Pollbludger is probably right.
Steve @ 7.30 very good summary
Regarding the Canadian Liberal Party leadership ballot my wife’s cousin Joyce Murray stood against Trudeau and received 10.2% of the vote. He received 80%.
She is really into the environment with her family company Brinkman Reforestation having planted north of 1.5 billion trees.
Her son is a rapper having done Chaucer’s Canterbury Tales to rap.
Bob Lynch @ #1858 Friday, January 10th, 2025 – 7:53 pm
Wow, that’s pretty amazing for your family to be involved in this so directly.
Hear hear Rainman at 7.12pm.
Labor just keeps approving coal mines, left right and centre.
Boggabri,
Meadowbrook in the Bowen Basin, &
Caval Ridge.
They do one thing, and then tell their cheer squad another.
At least they should be honest.
Perhaps Irene is correct.
“ how closely does PB mirror Australian society?”
I would guess it skews a long way from the average population for two reasons.
1. Quite a few posters (including me) have been posting here a long time and are now 60+. That is about 22% of the general population but I suspect it is more than that for bludgers.
2. We are all political tragics! 🙂 What percentage of Australians not only follow politics closely but are sufficiently interested to follow details of polling and election machinery? I don’t know, but I’d bet that is a lot less than 22%. 🙂
I just saw Steve’s post. Snap!
Steve777 and c@t, thanks for getting back earlier today.
The next 22 months in the USA would qualify as a clownshow except that it won’t be funny. The Trump base will stay rusted on. After all, Trump hates who they hate. But as for everyone else, I think that come the mid-terms there’ll be a lot of buyers’ remorse.
Please note I’m not a political tragic really …. 🙂
For world richest and most technologically advanced country in the world, USA appears to be very poor when it comes disaster management.
For example, New Orleans floods, Texas freeze, current LA fires and even COVID management.
Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters – New York summary.
Observe the graph of disasters
Most of them are clustered in the last decade.
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/state-summary/NY
‘Vlad says:
Friday, January 10, 2025 at 7:56 pm
Hear hear Rainman at 7.12pm.
Labor just keeps approving coal mines, left right and centre.
Boggabri,
Meadowbrook in the Bowen Basin, &
Caval Ridge.
They do one thing, and then tell their cheer squad another.
At least they should be honest.
Perhaps Irene is correct.’
=====================
Labor made it quite clear during the election campaign that it would open or extend coal mines.
There is no dishonesty.
If you want dishonesty there are two spectacular bits of dishonesty in the climate action domain.
The first is Dutton’s Nuclear Fiction.
The second is Bandt’s promise to deliver Zero Net Thirty Five. Take a few minutes and get your head around that one: a complete transformation of the Australian economy is less than 20 years. Well over a million jobs will be lost and will need to be found. You get a sense of how seriously the Greens take all this when Bandt opines, ‘The best job for a miner (who has lost his job) is another mining job.’ The Greens have never in 35 years supported ANY mine ANYWHERE.
You get the picture.
Of course we are abnormal. We have passion.
Love your work ven, but fuck it’s hard to read sometimes.
Clauser has never published a peer-reviewed article on the climate, and his views on climate change have been described as “pseudoscience”.[12] His belief that cloud cover has more of an impact on Earth’s temperature than carbon dioxide emissions is contradicted by the overwhelming scientific consensus on climate change.[12][13][14][15] Observational evidence shows the overall current cloud feedback amplifies global warming and does not have a cooling effect.[16]
REF: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Clauser
This is the trouble when you only have a weak understanding of science (ie high school level), you are prone to be hoodwinked by scientific con people. A red flag is that he got his noble prize for “for experiments with entangled photons, establishing the violation of Bell inequalities and pioneering quantum information science”.[2]”.
That is it had nothing to do with Climate Science.
Boerwar at 8.12pm.
No, i don’t get your picture.
Beetaloo approved in June, and before Christmas, Boggabri, Meadowbrook and Caval Ridge.
Apparently 2024 was also amongst the hottest years on record. Labor doing their bit i suppose, to jack up the climate.
‘Vlad says:
Friday, January 10, 2025 at 8:35 pm
Boerwar at 8.12pm.
No, i don’t get your picture.
Beetaloo approved in June, and before Christmas, Boggabri, Meadowbrook and Caval Ridge.
Apparentely 2024 was also amongst the hottest years on record. Labor doing their bit i suppose, to jack up the climate.’
===============
You claimed that Labor was being dishonest.
The picture is that you are 100% incorrect.
If you were to claim that the Liberals are being dishonest you would be 100% correct.
If you were to claim that the Greens are being dishonest you would be 100% correct.
That is your picture. But you have zip interest in being honest about the Greens twaddle about getting to Zero Net Thirty Five.
Your picture is that you are being both dishonest and hypocritical.
Why do you quickly flick the switch to the libs, Boerwar.
You know they are not in gov’t.
Plibersek has approved this.
Bit rattled tonight Boerwar.
Who’se the “so called” environment minister?
‘Vlad says:
Friday, January 10, 2025 at 8:46 pm
Why do you quickly flick the switch to the libs, Boerwar.
You know they are not in gov’t.
Plibersek has approved this.’
==================
Your meme was Labor was being dishonest. It is not.
It is following its election promises.
The Liberals are being dishonest. Nuclear Fiction. How dishonest is that.
The Greens are being dishonest. Zero Net Thirty Five. How dishonest is that.
Trust Dutton’s Nuclear Fiction?
Are you a turkey voting for Christmas?
And can you point me to where Albo announced – pre election 2022 – that he and his environment minister – would keep approving coal mine after coal mine as part of their policy.
I gather he wants an L.A. nightmare here, because it’s coming.
Ven
“ For world richest and most technologically advanced country in the world, USA appears to be very poor when it comes disaster management.
For example, New Orleans floods, Texas freeze, current LA fires and even COVID management.”
Quite simply the USA underinvests in every area of public service except the military. It has been an issue ever since Eisenhauer warned of the military – industrial complex in the 1950s.
The USA insists on being a low tax nation for ideological reasons (thanks to Reagan and co for all that stupid lobbying back in the 80s). The high military spend then leaves little left for much else.
When I last attended a conference in New Jersey a few years ago I was shocked by the poor condition of the local roads. Maintenance funding was quite miserable.
”
Henrysays:
Friday, January 10, 2025 at 8:13 pm
Love your work ven, but fuck it’s hard to read sometimes.
”
NESB. I am trying to put my thoughts on paper in a hurry and might have made mistakes. I will try to careful in future.
Don’t do your Turkey gobble rubbish Boerwar.
I gather you’re heading that way.
Hi Vlad,
Anyone who has been in this place for even one day would know it’s totally pointless to engage with Boerwar if you expect an exchange of ideas. He’s just a set and repeat kind of guy. Still, he totally has the right to his opinions. And he is consistent.
Sydney’s weather is thick with possibility, variability and interest yielding lushness and depth – much preferable to the semi-arid monotony of the cities and towns to the south and the west.
Too humid – grab an ice pack
Vlad
I am one of those who generally supports Labor but does not agree with everything it does.
Technically Labor promised its 43% emission reduction target in 2022 but remained silent on other issues like fossil fuel exports and new mine approvals.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-18/federal-election-climate-change-policy-labor-liberal-greens/101074924
It has acted to achieve the target, but not stopped the latter exports and new mines. So Labor has not lied, but has acted in a way that I would say makes Albo’s 2022 promises look evasive. Some think that is clever. I don’t.
”
Socratessays:
Friday, January 10, 2025 at 9:01 pm
Ven
“ For world richest and most technologically advanced country in the world, USA appears to be very poor when it comes disaster management.
For example, New Orleans floods, Texas freeze, current LA fires and even COVID management.”
Quite simply the USA underinvests in every area of public service except the military. It has been an issue ever since Eisenhauer warned of the military – industrial complex in the 1950s.
The USA insists on being a low tax nation for ideological reasons (thanks to Reagan and co for all that stupid lobbying back in the 80s). The high military spend then leaves little left for much else.
When I last attended a conference in New Jersey a few years ago I was shocked by the poor condition of the local roads. Maintenance funding was quite miserable.
”
Socrates
What is the current grade of America’s infrastructure?
C-
Overall, American infrastructure earned a C- in 2021, the bottom end of average, but out of the D range for the first time in twenty years.22 June 2023
https://www.gordian.com › resources
Examining ASCE’s Report Card for U.S. Infrastructure | Gordian
Vladsays:
Friday, January 10, 2025 at 7:56 pm
……………………………….
They do one thing, and then tell their cheer squad another.
At least they should be honest.
Perhaps Irene is correct.
***************************
Vlad,
Labor is running a campaign similar to 2019 and 2004.
In 2019, Silly Bill Shorten was running around Qld telling Queenslanders one thing, and then running down to Bennelong & Bradfield, and telling them another thing. In the end, he lost. In fact, the margins in QLD went into double digit figures for a lot of QLD seats in the favour of the LNP
Mark Latham did a similar thing – running around tasmania telling Tasmanians that everything was OK, and then telling Doctor’s wives in inner Sydney that the trees were safe. Obviously the union people in Tasmania sussed him out and smashed his campaign.
Albo is also running a forked tongue campaign. Fake Labor people swallow it hook line and sinker, but sensible labor people can see through it a mile away and are probably concerned about the scale of the loss about to unfold.
Regardless, you are correct to point out those mine approvals have occurred under this current gov’t.
I gather you are a green or Teal. I am a Lib, but I can see the “forked tongue” behaviour a mile away.
Intense heat waves and flooding are battering electricity and water systems, as America’s aging infrastructure sags under the pressure of climate change
https://www.preventionweb.net/news/intense-heat-waves-and-flooding-are-battering-electricity-and-water-systems-americas-aging
“A report by former Federal Reserve Board Chairman Paul Volcker’s Volcker Alliance in 2019 estimated the U.S. has a US$1 trillion backlog of needed repairs.
Over 220,000 bridges across the country – about 33% of the total – require rehabilitation or replacement.
A water main break now occurs somewhere in the U.S. every two minutes, and an estimated 6 million gallons of treated water are lost each day. This is happening at the same time the western United States is implementing water restrictions amid the driest 20-year span in 1,200 years. Similarly, drinking water distribution in the United States relies on over 2 million miles of pipes that have limited life spans.”
”
“Climate change exacerbates the risk
The consequences of inadequate maintenance are compounded by climate change, which is accelerating infrastructure failure with increased flooding, extreme heat and growing storm intensity.
Much of the world’s infrastructure was designed for an environment that no longer exists. The historic precipitation levels, temperature profiles, extreme weather events and storm surge levels those systems were designed and built to handle are now exceeded on a regular basis.
Unprecedented rainfall in the California desert in 2015 tore apart a bridge over Interstate 10, one of the state’s most important east-west routes. Temperatures near 120 degrees Fahrenheit (49 C) forced the Phoenix airport to cancel flights in 2017 out of concern the planes might not be able to safely take off.
A heat wave in the Pacific Northwest in 2020 buckled roads and melted streetcar cables in Portland. Amtrak slowed its train speeds in the Northeast in July 2022 out of concern that a heat wave would cause the overhead wires to expand and sag and rails to potentially buckle.
Power outages during California’s September 2022 heat wave are another potentially life-threatening infrastructure problem.”
Ven
To give Biden credit where it is due his Inflation Reduction Act saw a large increase increase in infrastructure spending in real terms in the last four years. So the improved grading is not a surprise.
But that is the first big increase in US civic spending in real terms since the Interstate Highway program ran out of funding in the 1970s.
As a % of GDP USA spends half what Australia spends on infrastructure.
AFR: Economists say Labor has a realistic chance of posting a shock third budget surplus as soaring tax revenue delivers Treasurer Jim Chalmers a $14.5 billion windfall that could allow the government to promote its economic credentials or spend more cash during the election campaign.
Booming income tax from a strong jobs market and a weak Australian dollar that is turbocharging company taxes on US dollar-priced commodity exports have halved the budget deficit, according to Department of Finance figures. The deficit in the five months to November 30 was $14 billion, versus an expected deficit of $28.5 billion to that point in the year.
“ Perhaps Irene is correct.”
I must say that she is often correct. Listening to the conspiracy nutters earlier today about her being a Liberal plant made them sound insane and me laugh.
Anyway, I’m still sticking to my theory that humans came to this planet through a star gate on the Asian Steppe. I mean, where did all those Huns and Mongols come from? Don’t get me wrong – I’m not an idiot. Obviously the hordes didn’t invent star gates. They must have just stumbled on one left on their planet by some ancient alien civilisation.
Vladsays:
Friday, January 10, 2025 at 8:48 pm
[Bit rattled tonight Boerwar.
Who’se the “so called” environment minister?]
The energy revolution is not complete.
Coal is still used and exported to the extent it is as the LNP lost Australia ten years.(at least)
Getting rid of coal is not just a “flick the switch”.
The Grid transition and renewable infrastructure has progress well under Labor.
The second tier wannabe criticizing Labor efforts offer nothing as an alternative timetable to renewables.
We all know the the negatives regarding coal use and its continued use, Labor is the major player to achieve what we need to achieve
The Greens and the “same same” brigade have nothing but cheap shots.
The “cheap shots Greens” are reacting badly as the Teals have exposed the Greens failures.
Steve777says:
Friday, January 10, 2025 at 7:30 pm
”how closely does PB mirror Australian society?”
I don’t think that it would be close. For a start a majority of PB posters vote and support Labor, way more than the general community.
&
Kirsdarkesays:
Friday, January 10, 2025 at 7:38 pm
Yeah the PB community is definitely toward the Labor side of things.
****************************
Steve777 & Kirsdarke,
I gather you have just both engaged in sin language. ie: “PB skews Labor”.
You can’t say this here, unless you want to be accused of being a Liberal/RWNJ stooge, by c@t, although c@t’s opinions amount to nought.
This is what she had to say about “completely and utterly harmless”, nadia88 the other day, when nadia dared raise the scenario that PB skews Labor.
As follows…
C@tmommasays:
Tuesday, January 7, 2025 at 9:59 pm
Ah, the old, this is a ‘Labor friendly site’. Which complaint tends to expose one’s personal leanings.
==================================
I’m sure c@t will follow through and accuse you two of the same bias, as she goes forth to smash you both off the site.
Doubt it of course, nadia was an easy, and fairly regular target, to bash.
I think it was more deceit rather than ‘evasive’, Socrates.
Vlad
Maybe. I certainly wasn’t defending it. I think it was cowardly.
The L.A. fires mess looks like a series of incompetence after incompetence.
The Mayor was overseas holidaying in Ghana – although that is now being dressed up as some sort of diplomatic issue. Apparently U.S. Mayors are now engaged in overseas diplomacy, probably only if they are Democrat Mayors.
No water in the fire hydrants – difficult to put out a fire without water. I suppose they can get the firemen to stand around and piss on the blaze, but wait for it, the LAFD is “wracked to pieces” with DEI initiatives. Bit difficult getting female firies to do the same thing I suppose.
Interesting to see if fire mitigation processes were followed in the lead up. ie: removal of dead/fallen trunks. Keeping trees away from houses and infrastructure like highways (access routes for firies).
Rex Douglassays:
Friday, January 10, 2025 at 4:55 pm
9m ago
16.44 AEDT
ANZ has brought forward its forecast for the first rate cut to take place in February, while maintaining borrowers will only see two rate cuts in the coming cycle.
The news, announced today, follows better-than-expected results from November’s monthly CPI Indicator released on Wednesday.
ANZ now joins CBA in expecting the first RBA cash rate cut in February, while NAB and Westpac are both still forecasting the first cut will be in May.
GA live blog
Put me down for a pre-budget election.
==============
Rex – We’re in the middle of an election campaign at the moment. Usually january is a quiet time in Australia, but we’ve got Albo flying around the country and Dutton doing rallies – in Melbourne- of all places over the weekend.
We’re a couple of weeks away from an election being called. Probably just after Australia Day, and we’ll go to the polls in early march – 1st or 8th.
No budget. Nothing positive for labor to present in a budget except for eye watering deficits for the decade to come.
As for the W.A. election, no one gives a fuck what date that occurs. It can be pushed off to late march.
“LAFD is “wracked to pieces” with DEI initiatives”
I would assume you would be counted as a DEI hire by your employer too. As one would count empathy challenged and learning difficulties as a disability i assume.
I do wonder how the MAGA cult will end up dealing with the H1-B visa situation that Musk is defending so strongly, especially since their God-Emperor turns out to be on Musk’s side.
shellbellsays:
Friday, January 10, 2025 at 9:11 pm
Sydney’s weather is thick with possibility, variability and interest yielding lushness and depth
__________________
Yeah, I think that’s what the Queenslanders refer to as ‘swamp arse’. And you are welcome to it.
Only in Melbourne, and our semi-autonomous province of Tasmania, can a man experience all 4 seasons and revel in winter clothing such as pants, socks, jumpers and jackets without looking like a sweaty woolly mammoth.
I been posting here since around 2012 and PB has skewed to Labor all that time. It is probably slightly less skewed today than 12 years ago.
I remember making the observation soon after I started posting here and William said something like “you reckon”.
Boerwar is correct. Labor did promise to be shit-lite.
There were some surprises though. Stage three tax cuts were less shit than they promised for instance.
That’s all I’ve got.
Thankfully the actual shit party has been plumbing new depths so that’s the bottom of my ticket sorted at least.