BludgerTrack 2025 2.0 (open thread)

Federal polling trends suggest Labor’s position is weakening in its stronghold state of Victoria.

This site’s renowned BludgerTrack poll aggregate has been given a seasonal makeover, now boasting state-level federal polling trends for the five mainland states (Tasmania being almost entirely lacking in published data). Its principal insight is that Labor has – assuming always that the polls are to be believed – a problem on its hands in Victoria. Two-party swings in the other states are in a narrow band from 1.2% in Queensland to 2.1% in New South Wales, but the current reading for Victoria has it at 4.6%, enough to wipe out the advantage Labor has established there in recent years. Labor can take some comfort in the fact that the state is not rich in marginal seats, a uniform swing of that size being only sufficient to cost it Chisholm and McEwen.

The state-level measures are created by combining separate trend measures for national voting intention and the respective states’ deviations from it, the data for which can be accessed from the “poll data” tab at the top of the BludgerTrack page. The only comparable effort I’m aware of is The Guardian’s poll tracker, which also has trend measures for a range of other demographic indicators, though it doesn’t seem to be drawing on too many data points for some of them. The big difference overall between the two is that The Guardian assumes the polls to be very heavily skewed to Labor, particularly on the primary vote, and duly points to a fairly comfortable Coalition win. BludgerTrack assumes the polls to be broadly accurate, particularly Newspoll and the related entities of Pyxis and YouGov, and has for some time pointed to a near dead heat on two-party preferred.

The imminence of a federal election notwithstanding, there is inevitably not much to report this time of year, although a The West Australian yesterday related that a very firm view had taken hold within Labor’s WA branch that the Prime Minister plans to call an election for April very shortly after the state election is held on March 8. It was also revealed yesterday that Victoria’s state by-election for Werribee will be held concurrently with the Prahran by-election on February 8.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,928 comments on “BludgerTrack 2025 2.0 (open thread)”

Comments Page 1 of 39
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  1. Dear William

    Thanks for this. Sterling work.

    Dare I suggest that you might have forgotten about Aston when talking about seats that might fall to the Libs in Victoria?

  2. Good morning everyone. I didn’t see a post from BK saying he was going to be doing the Dawn Patrol again (just lots of aggressive bloviating from FUBAR, no surprises there, and others who think the welfare dependent should be kicked to the kerb and get nothing because it might upset the wealthy ???).

    So, with that in mind I’ll be off to compile the sub genre, never as good as the real thing, Dawn Patrol. 🙂

  3. On the opinion polling 4.6% swing in Victoria ,

    The 2022 federal election results

    Out of Federal Labor party 24 held seats in Victoria
    There are 3 Labor party held seats with 2pp under 54-46

    Aston. –
    Labor Party primary votes 40.9% – 2pp Labor Party 53.6%
    Liberal Party primary votes 39.1% – 2pp Liberal Party 46.4%

    Higgins-
    Labor Party primary votes 28.46% – 2pp Labor Party 52.06%
    Liberal Party primary votes 40.69 % – 2pp Liberal Party 47.94%

    McEwen
    Labor Party primary votes 36.81% – 2pp Labor Party 53.28%
    Liberal Party primary votes 33.22% – 2pp Liberal Party 46.72%


    Out of federal Liberal party 8 held seats
    There are 4 Liberal party held seats with 2pp under 53-47

    Casey-
    Liberal Party primary votes 36.49% – 2pp Liberal Party 51.48%
    Labor Party primary votes 24.87% – 2pp Labor Party 48.52%

    Deakin-
    Liberal Party primary votes 41.51% – 2pp Liberal Party 50.19%
    Labor Party primary votes 32.76% – 2pp Labor Party 49.81%

    Menzies –
    Liberal Party primary votes 42.1% – 2pp Liberal Party 50.68%
    Labor Party primary votes 33.3% – 2pp Labor Party 59.32%

    Monash –
    Liberal Party primary votes 37.79% – 2pp Liberal Party 52.90%
    Labor Party primary votes 25.6% – 2pp Labor Party 47.10%

    The federal liberal Party are more at risk of losing seats in Victoria

  4. Scott: “The federal liberal Party are more at risk of losing seats in Victoria”

    Sigh…

    Do you actually understand how swings work?

  5. Wat Tyler says:
    Tuesday, January 7, 2025 at 12:35 am

    The Canadian Parliament doesn’t return in January. The coward has prorogued Parliament and gets to continue being paid as PM until late March. The hypocrisy of the Left on full display again – he was deeply critical of Harper who prorogued Parliament also to avoid a No Confidence vote.

  6. Rob Wooding says:
    Tuesday, January 7, 2025 at 6:52 am
    Scott: “The federal liberal Party are more at risk of losing seats in Victoria”

    Sigh…

    Do you actually understand how swings work?
    ————–
    If there is a swing against the sitting candidate in every seat, the swing against Labor doesn’t mean there will be no swing against Liberal party candidate in their seat

    The Victorian state election was a good example of swing against Labor , but Labor gain liberal party seats

  7. Rob Wooding says:
    Tuesday, January 7, 2025 at 6:52 am

    C’mon mate, it’s Scott

    Scott knows!!

    He can even prove that the Liberal Party has only about 20% FP. Just ask him. He knows!!!

  8. Can Queensland afford Peter Dutton’s nuclear spending frenzy?

    This latest analysis appears more realistic than the discredited Frontier Economics cheer leading against renewables.


    Queensland’s economy will be almost a $1tn worse off by 2050 if the Coalition’s nuclear plan gets the public’s green light at the next federal election, a new Albanese government analysis shows.

    The prime minister, Anthony Albanese, is criss-crossing northern and western Australia this week in a pre-election blitz to campaign battlegrounds.

    Fresh from visiting Queensland’s Gympie and Rockhampton on Monday, the government has revealed overnight the opposition’s proposal to build and operate two of seven nuclear reactor sites in Queensland would impact the state’s economy by $872bn by the mid-century.

    The government’s analysis, based on calculations from Australian Energy Market Operator figures, also reveals the opposition’s plan would impact the state economy’s output by $61.1bn in 2050-51 alone.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2025/jan/07/australia-news-live-politics-updates-albanese-coalition-nuclear-energy-plan-peter-dutton-sydney-weather-storm-rain

  9. FUBAR
    So are you saying there will be no swing against liberal party candidate or even non Labor party candidate
    The swing against is only against Labor

    Elections do not work like that

  10. Kamala Harris handled that certification of the presidential election results with a lot of professionalism and class, that would have been as difficult for her as it was for Al Gore in January 2001.
    In terms of Trudeau, he should have resigned months ago, fairly clear the Conservatives will regain power in the next Canadian election.

  11. On the day of the peaceful transfer of power without the violent Trumpist insurrectionists, a report on the incoming FBI director. You can bet the insurrectionists will be pardoned as the FBI will be blamed for events 4 years ago.

    “WHAT WAS THE FBI DOING PLANNING January 6th for a year?”

    Kash Patel, President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee to serve as FBI director, asked that question during a November 25, 2022 episode of his Kash’s Corner podcast for the Epoch Times. It was no slip of the tongue. As the title of that episode suggested—“What Did the FBI Know Before Jan. 6?”—Patel spent considerable time trying to cast the FBI as a villain responsible for January 6th. Patel noted that FBI Director Christopher Wray had “testified that the FBI never instigated or helped the January 6th protesters commit crimes.” But citing a report that the FBI had confidential human sources in the crowd, Patel asserted: “Okay, well, that was in planning for at least a year.”

    Our review of Patel’s public appearances over the past four years reveals that he has repeatedly insinuated or argued that the FBI used its confidential human sources or employees to instigate the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol and entrap Trump’s supporters. Patel has claimed (as in the podcast episode above) that what he calls the “FBI’s Confidential Human Source Corruption Coverup Network” was somehow involved with January 6th. That is not only an insult to the memory of that day; it should be disqualifying for him to helm the bureau.

    https://www.thebulwark.com/p/kash-patel-fbi-director-nominee-january-6th-conspiracy-theories?r=2k4r8&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web

  12. Fubar: You can’t fault Scott for his pro Labor enthusiasm, but as for his polling predictions – insane and plain absurd.

  13. Democracy Sausage says:
    Tuesday, January 7, 2025 at 7:21 am
    Fubar: You can’t fault Scott for his pro Labor enthusiasm, but as for his polling predictions – insane and plain absurd.
    ———————
    I dont think my predictions are that absurd , they are more likely to be closer than the predictions that the federal lib/nats are going to gain over 10 seats( to get more than 60 seats) on a combined primary vote under 40%

  14. Good Morning Dawn Patrollers. What have I got for you today?

    BREAKING NEWS. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will step down as leader of the ruling Liberals as soon as the party chooses a replacement.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/canadian-prime-minister-justin-trudeau-resigns-as-party-leader-20250107-p5l2g7.html

    In the end, the nation’s 23rd Prime Minister had little choice. While Trudeau – the son of storied PM Pierre Trudeau – was initially applauded for returning Canada to its progressive past, he has become widely unpopular recently over a range of issues from inflation and cost of living pressures, to surging immigration.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/justin-trudeau-the-golden-boy-of-canadian-politics-loses-his-shine-20250107-p5l2gc.html

    The cost-of-living crisis rear-ended new car sales at the end of 2024, with purchases 2.7 per cent softer in December compared with the same month the year before, while electric vehicle purchases were essentially flat, lagging behind hopes.
    Instead, there was a boom in sales of vehicles with hybrid engines, which are powered by a petrol or diesel motor and a battery that charges while the engine is firing. More than 170,000 were sold in Australia last year. (I don’t get how a Cost of Living Crisis relates to buying a new car but whatever)

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/cost-of-living-crisis-meets-new-era-of-electric-cars-20250106-p5l29h.html

    Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has lashed the Coalition for its handling of tennis star Novak Djokovic’s immigration detention during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2022, after the athlete spoke of the “trauma” he feels when returning to Australia.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/hard-to-justify-albanese-lashes-coalition-s-handling-of-2022-djokovic-detention-20250106-p5l2cf.html

    Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus is preparing to travel to Israel within weeks in a bid to help mend the fractured relationship between the Albanese and Netanyahu governments.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/albanese-minister-to-fly-to-israel-to-mend-fractured-relationship-20250106-p5l2ar.html

    Guess who’s back? Chrissy Pyne with this contribution.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-s-nuclear-plan-will-never-happen-but-it-s-still-a-gem-of-a-policy-20250102-p5l1qv.html

    The nation’s housing crisis has emerged as the biggest social issue keeping Australian business leaders up at night. KPMG’s annual survey of more than 300 C-suite executives and board members, released on Monday, revealed almost half believed the lack of meaningful progress on housing affordability was not just a challenge facing the country, but also a danger to businesses.

    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/housing-crisis-the-top-social-issue-keeping-bosses-up-at-night-20250106-p5l2ab.html

    Beware! There’s a new employment scam, offering people bogus jobs via instant messaging service WhatsApp. It happened to me! Because I help my son find employment.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/broke-desperate-jobseekers-are-falling-for-gold-mine-employment-scams-in-droves-20250105-p5l26q.html

    In Victoria, newly minted Opposition Leader Brad Battin will unveil his frontbench on Tuesday in a shadow cabinet reshuffle that rewards key allies while mending relations with some former opponents. Planning spokesman and Brighton MP James Newbury will receive the coveted treasury portfolio, according to two Liberal sources, while upper house MP for Western Victoria Beverley McArthur will be promoted to shadow cabinet as local government spokeswoman. Both backed Battin over former leader John Pesutto.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/battin-expected-to-bridge-factional-divide-in-new-look-front-bench-20250106-p5l2fr.html

    In Queensland the first 100 days of the new LNP government is almost up. What then for the Crisafulli/Bleije government?

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/queensland/the-new-year-set-to-reveal-more-about-the-new-state-government-20250101-p5l1je.html

    In WA, the cost to run the Labor government’s first large Medihotel has blown out by nearly $44 million for half the period the contract was initially expected to be signed for.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/western-australia/the-murdoch-medihotel-was-meant-to-cost-wa-taxpayers-55-million-it-s-nearly-double-that-20250103-p5l1ze.html

    ‘I don’t hold the hose, mate’: Australia’s political history is full of gaffes. Here are some of best (or worst)

    https://theconversation.com/i-dont-hold-the-hose-mate-australias-political-history-is-full-of-gaffes-here-are-some-of-best-or-worst-241919

    Fully recovering Australia’s threatened species would cost 25% of GDP. We can’t do it all at once – so let’s start here.

    https://theconversation.com/fully-recovering-australias-threatened-species-would-cost-25-of-gdp-we-cant-do-it-all-at-once-so-lets-start-here-245669

    Eating rabbit, camel, carp, feral cat, deer and cane toad might sound extreme to some, but it’s gaining attention as a solution to tackle the growing impact of invasive species.
    Now, Tony Armstrong hosts the ABC series Eat the Invaders, inspired by artist Kirsha Kaechele’s 2019 cookbook and MONA exhibition Eat the Problem. Not sure I want to cook Indian Mynahs. 😐

    https://theconversation.com/cane-toads-on-the-barbie-how-eating-invasive-species-might-help-manage-them-246042

    Relentless warming is driving the water cycle to new extremes, the 2024 global water report shows. Last year, Earth experienced its hottest year on record − for the fourth year in a row. Rising temperatures are changing the way water moves around our planet, wreaking havoc on the water cycle.

    https://theconversation.com/relentless-warming-is-driving-the-water-cycle-to-new-extremes-the-2024-global-water-report-shows-246131

    The Pope has swung into action, Pope Francis has named Cardinal Robert McElroy as the new leader of the Catholic Church in Washington DC. Cardinal McElroy has criticised US president-elect Donald Trump’s political agenda in the past, particularly disagreeing with Trump’s mass deportation campaign.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01-06/pope-names-robert-mcelroy-as-washington-archbishop/104790278

    South Australian police officers will be deployed to Alice Springs, following calls for assistance from the Northern Territory police commissioner. The NT Police Force says it’s aimed at maintaining a high police presence in the town after a spate of serious crimes in the past month.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01-06/sa-police-officers-deployed-to-alice-springs-nt-amid-crime/104787772

    Not again! 😡 Anti-Semitic graffiti was tagged on the side of a car at Queens Park. The Prime Minister and the Jewish community have condemned the attack.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01-06/nsw-anti-semitic-graffiti-vandalism-car-sydney-east-queens-park/104787820

    Cartoons and illustrations for today

    Alan Moir

    Cathy Wilcox

    Vintage Cathy Wilcox

    Matt Golding

    Matt Davidson

    Cartoonists rally around Ann Telnaes as she leaves The Washington Post.

    A story in 3 parts in the space of 7 days.

    #TheResistance

  15. Scott: I reckon Labor might have some difficulty retaining the seat of Higgins. In fact, I’ll cheerfully put a lazy $50 on them not winning that seat next election.

  16. Rob Wooding,
    Have you read the post at the top of this thread? An expert in psephology has identified 3 seats in Victoria may fall.

    I’ll take their opinion over any amateur’s any day of the week.

  17. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has quit in a bombshell announcement, as his popularity plummets and incoming US President Donald Trump threatens massive tariffs against its closest ally.
    But it was the resignation of Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland last month that sealed Mr Trudeau’s fate.
    In the Canadian capital of Ottawa on Monday, local time, Mr Trudeau said he had a chance to “reflect over the holidays” before telling his family of his decision to resign over dinner on Sunday night.

  18. Attorney-General Mark Dreyfus is preparing to travel to Israel within weeks in a bid to help mend the fractured relationship between the Albanese and Netanyahu governments.
    _____________________
    Cleaning up Wong’s mess.

  19. ‘The shadow treasurer, Angus Taylor, has been speaking with ABC RN about this year’s federal election – after Anthony Albanese kicked off a campaign blitz this week with plans to visit multiple states.
    […]
    What is the Coalition proposing to do differently? Taylor said their focus was on “freeing up the economy, and in particular, making sure we’ve got business leading the way, investing, creating jobs, taking risks, driving not just job creation, but [productivity]”.’

    All vibes, but zero actual policies.

  20. Bird of paradox says:
    Tuesday, January 7, 2025 at 7:43 am
    Scott: I reckon Labor might have some difficulty retaining the seat of Higgins. In fact, I’ll cheerfully put a lazy $50 on them not winning that seat next election.
    ———————
    Yes , Higgins likely be a labor lost , Labor could counter that Lost with seats gain of Deakin and Menzies

  21. 3.55am for your first post of the day, FUBAR. You are an overenthusiastic little Conservative, aren’t you?

    Time zones other than AEST are a thing. Frequently forgotten by NSW folk with no awareness of the continent on the other side of the Blue Mountains, but they do exist.

    I find it kinda ironic that you do a better job of convincing people not to vote for the Labor party than Fubar ever could.

  22. Taylormade supports the killing of 46,000 men, women and children in Gaza. He supports the withholding of water, medical supplies and food from civilians. He supports the genocidal calls from senior Netanyahu Government ministers. He supports the summary forced mass movement of populations.

  23. Roy Morgan has the LNP leading with a 53-47 2PP and the LNP primary vote hitting the crucial 40%. This is very alarming, even if Roy Morgan is considered relatively unreliable. Not sure how results like that can be positively spun by Labor stalwarts.

    Labor should have held an early election, which would all be done and dusted by now. Instead Albanese has been dithering and drifting since the disasterous referendum, and gives the impression he has run out of fuel and has nothing further to offer.

  24. Bird of paradox @ #28 Tuesday, January 7th, 2025 – 7:55 am

    3.55am for your first post of the day, FUBAR. You are an overenthusiastic little Conservative, aren’t you?

    Time zones other than AEST are a thing. Frequently forgotten by NSW folk with no awareness of the continent on the other side of the Blue Mountains, but they do exist.

    I find it kinda ironic that you do a better job of convincing people not to vote for the Labor party than Fubar ever could.

    Wth are you talking about!?! I calculated the time zone for WA correctly. You are 3 hours behind AEDST, are you not?

    And, honestly, that nasty little personal swipe against me at the end was totally uncalled for.

  25. I would say that Dreyfus has Buckleys of mitigating Netanyahu’s meddling in Australian politics.

    Netanyahu was a significant player in the US election process, heavily favoring Trump.

    IMO, the best Australians can hope for is that Netanyahu reckons that Australia is not worth his time.

  26. Brian Tyler Cohen‬ ‪@briantylercohen.bsky.social‬
    ·
    2h
    Today is January 6th and no one is watching the Capitol be plundered, feces being smeared on the walls, and police officers being stabbed with American flags.

    Why? Because one side believes in democracy no matter what, and the other side only believes in it only when they win.

    Very true.

  27. Albanese has stolen a march on Dutton in 2025.

    First with the Bruce Highway. That is a biggie.

    Then with Djokovic.

    Now with the real life cost implications of Dutton’s nuclear plan for real Queenslanders.

  28. A federal judge on Monday held Rudy Giuliani in contempt for failing to turn over information to two former Georgia election workers he defamed after the 2020 presidential election, as they continue to try to collect $150 million in damages.
    The sanction adds to a pile of significant consequences the former New York mayor, US attorney and Donald Trump attorney has faced in court in recent years.
    It comes less than two weeks before a scheduled trial where Giuliani is trying to keep ownership of a $3.5 million Palm Beach condo he says he lives in. He was accused of failing to respond to requests for information from election workers Ruby Freeman and Shaye Moss as they prepare for the trial.

  29. FUBAR has time to express contempt for Trudeau but is absolutely silent on FUBAR’s soul mate Giuliani.
    Trump.Gina.Dutton.FUBAR.Giuliani.
    Join the dots.

  30. S. Simpson says:
    Tuesday, January 7, 2025 at 8:02 am
    Roy Morgan has the LNP leading with a 53-47 2PP and the LNP primary vote hitting the crucial 40%. This is very alarming, even if Roy Morgan is considered relatively unreliable. Not sure how results like that can be positively spun by Labor stalwarts.
    ——————————–
    In that Morgan Poll , Labor was the only political party to receive a swing to it , 3.5% in the primary vote

    Federal Lib /nats swing against 0.5%, Greens 0.5%, One nation swing against 1.5% , independent/others swing against 0.5%

    How did the federal lib/nats gain a point when the minor leaning lib/nats party preferences lost 1.5% ground

  31. S Simpson wants Dutton to win the next election and demonstrates this with a concern troll around the Morgan poll.
    Trump.Simpson.Dutton.Musk.Gina.
    Join the dots.

  32. Kyle Griffin‬ ‪@kylegriffin1.bsky.social‬
    ·
    20m
    BREAKING:

    NEW YORK (AP) — Judge finds Rudy Giuliani in contempt of court for failing to turn over assets to Georgia election workers.

  33. From the Guardian

    ‘Taylor on Bruce Highway investment: ‘Government needs to be frugal at a time like this’

    Asked whether the Coalition supports the government’s move to fund 80% of the upgrades for Queensland’s Bruce Highway, Angus Taylor said the Coalition has “long supported” investment in the major road – but “government needs to be frugal at a time like this”.’
    =====================================
    There are various sorts of lies. One particular kind is the lie of omission. Taylor was part of frugal governments that gave us a trillion dollar debt. Now he is suddenly beset by ‘frugal’ concerns. Queenslanders should now know that Dutton and Taylor will NOT upgrade the Bruce to three star safety standards. They are fine with the Queenslanders who will die on the Bruce Highway as a consequence.

  34. The past was erased, the erasure was forgotten, the lie became the truth ― George Orwell

    Never forget what ~10 years of Coalition government was like.

  35. Imagine if the next Newspoll is similar to Morgan, then the panic would really set in here from the Labor warriors like Boerwar and Scott.

  36. Thanks for the roundup C@T!

    @Been There

    Thanks for your kind words last night, hope you and yours had a nice break as well

    Weather was no good for the first half of my break but still managed a couple of cracker days on the water. Boxing day was particularly epic, going 6-6-3 on Marlin. We weren’t even supposed to be gamefishing so I only had 4x 15kg outfits and no outriggers, we were trolling hardbodies in close and it was dead so on a whim decided to head out wide. Only had a few skirts with us but ended up landing a 70kg black, a 90kg stripe and a big 120kg black which was a serious fight on 15kg tackle. We also had this chaos triple hookup where I saw a pack of small blacks hunting on the surface so turned towards them, had the short corner go off first, then the long corner, so I cleared the teaser and was pulling the shotgun in and had a black marlin follow it in to the boat and watched it eat the lure about 3m from the back of the boat. We dropped the other 2 but I had a solid hookup on the one that ate the shotgun. Unfortunately after a big run he started doing some crazy jumps and acrobatic and after one jump his bill cut clear through the line so we lost him, but it was absolute madness

    Also went out on Sunday and had a pretty good day, dropped a huge 30kg wahoo at the boat coz one of my deckies stupidly decided to switch his lure to a light gauge hook and we straightened it while leadering the fish. Then we found the tree of life, this random log that must have washed out from the QLD floods or something. it was right on a tide change too, we managed to pull 4 big bull dollies (mahi mahi) off it all around the 1.2 – 1.4m size by trolling our lures around it, and also got a couple of small yellowfin tuna on metal slugs , and jigged up a wahoo of all things to make up for the one we dropped earlier (not as big as the dropped one but just as tasty). then trolling our way back in we managed a nice 90kg striped marlin, which was another deckie’s first marlin on my boat so he’s now got an official boat hat and is part of my marlin crew

    the water’s still crazy warm but it’s shaping up to be a very good pelagic season!


  37. Guess who’s back? Chrissy Pyne with this contribution.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-s-nuclear-plan-will-never-happen-but-it-s-still-a-gem-of-a-policy-20250102-p5l1qv.html

    So according to Chrissy Pyne, Dutton’s plan is a gem of a policy although it will NEVER HAPPEN!!!

    Like AUKUS IS A GEM OF A POLICY BUT WILL NEVER HAPPEN. Giving money to US (which is the richest country in the world) to build their naval shipyards is not a proof of AUKUS plan in implementation.

    TO MAKE AUSTRALIA A SUPERPOWER IS A GEM OF A POLICY BUT IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN, ATLEAST FOR ANOTHER 100 YEARS, IF AT ALL.


  38. The Pope has swung into action, Pope Francis has named Cardinal Robert McElroy as the new leader of the Catholic Church in Washington DC. Cardinal McElroy has criticised US president-elect Donald Trump’s political agenda in the past, particularly disagreeing with Trump’s mass deportation campaign.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-01-06/pope-names-robert-mcelroy-as-washington-archbishop/104790278

    The so-called catholic leaders of USA, who are supporting Trump, will demand Catholic Church not to interfere in State matters forgetting that Abortion issue is a favourite of Catholic Church. Oh well!

  39. Scott @ #37 Tuesday, January 7th, 2025 – 8:10 am

    S. Simpson says:
    Tuesday, January 7, 2025 at 8:02 am
    Roy Morgan has the LNP leading with a 53-47 2PP and the LNP primary vote hitting the crucial 40%. This is very alarming, even if Roy Morgan is considered relatively unreliable. Not sure how results like that can be positively spun by Labor stalwarts.
    ——————————–
    In that Morgan Poll , Labor was the only political party to receive a swing to it , 3.5% in the primary vote

    Federal Lib /nats swing against 0.5%, Greens 0.5%, One nation swing against 1.5% , independent/others swing against 0.5%

    How did the federal lib/nats gain a point when the minor leaning lib/nats party preferences lost 1.5% ground

    The Greens’ preference swing was something I have been commenting on for a long time now and which I begun to notice while scrutineering. I guess, as the saying goes, people become more conservative as they age and I guess this is also applying to Greens’ voters as their wealth accumulates. Plus, there is a growing cohort of Wellness Industry voters for whom environmental concerns abut their business beliefs, making a comfortable new niche for them in the voting spectrum.


  40. Holdenhillbillysays:
    Tuesday, January 7, 2025 at 7:44 am
    Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has quit in a bombshell announcement, as his popularity plummets and incoming US President Donald Trump threatens massive tariffs against its closest ally.
    But it was the resignation of Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland last month that sealed Mr Trudeau’s fate.
    In the Canadian capital of Ottawa on Monday, local time, Mr Trudeau said he had a chance to “reflect over the holidays” before telling his family of his decision to resign over dinner on Sunday night.

    Another one bites the dust. “Telling his family “? Umm. I thought his marriage life is in tatters.
    Anyway, good riddance.

  41. Ven
    You miss Pyne’s point. It is his argument that no onein the coalition believes nuclear will happen but it is enough window dressing to control the destructive internal debate over climate change.

    I am not sure if that is true but the discussion on climate change has certainly been a cause of disunity for the coalition for the last 20 years.

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