Nine Newspapers yesterday had Resolve Strategic’s quarterly state breakdowns, combined from their past three monthly polls. These aren’t news with respect to the three largest states, results for which are provided with each poll. That leaves fresh results for Western Australia, which show Labor on 30% (up one on last quarter, down from 36.8% at the 2022 election), the Coalition on 37% (up two, up from 34.8%), the Greens on 12% (down four, down from 12.5%) and One Nation 5% (steady, up from 4.0%). and South Australia, which show Labor on 27% (down one on last quarter, down from 34.5% at the election), the Coalition on 34% (down two, down from 35.5%), the Greens on 12% (down two, down from 12.8%) and One Nation on 8% (up two, up from 4.8%). The combined sample for the poll was 4831, with surveying conducted between October 1 and December 8.
Also published on Sunday were familiarity and net likeability results for 34 politicians from the most recent monthly survey. These seem to have elicited rote responses for most of the lower-ranking government ministers, eight of whom scored between between 41% and 55% on name recognition and between minus one and minus five on net likeability. Coalition politicians in the same name recognition range did better, ranging from even to plus seven.
The most instructive results were for those with familiarity scores of 70% and upwards, peaking at 98% for Anthony Albanese (minus 17 on net likeability) and 95% for Peter Dutton (even). Jacinta Price was the most favoured major party politician with 71% familiarity and plus 8 net likeability, though David Pocock and a number of Liberals did only slightly less well with much lower familiarity scores. Labor’s best performer was Penny Wong with 89% familiarity and plus 2 on net likeability. The worst result for a major party politician was Barnaby Joyce with 90% familiarity and minus 22 net likeability.
Jacqui Lambie tops the list, with 80% familiarity and plus 14 net likeability. David Pocock and Zali Steggall’s results were respectively good and mediocre, but otherwise non-major party politicians did poorly, Adam Bandt, Sarah Hanson-Young, Bob Katter and Fatima Payman all landing between minus 11 and minus 17. Worst-rated of all was Lidia Thorpe, whose recent activities have succeeded to the extent of scoring her 73% familiarity, with a net rating of minus 41 presumably demonstrating one point or another.
UPDATE: Further results have been published for age broken down into three cohorts. For 18-to-34, Labor is on 33% (up two from last quarter, steady on what was presumably the pre-election Resolve Strategic poll), the Coalition 27% (up two on both counts), the Greens 23% (down four, down two). For 35-to-54, Labor is on 30% (up two and down four), the Coalition 34% (down two and up two) and the Greens 12% (steady on both counts). For 55-plus, Labor is on 25% (down two and down eight), the Coalition 50% (up three and up four) and the Greens 4% (steady and down one).
Albanese throwing a wobbly at Victorian Labor:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-12-31/peter-dutton-labor-meme-pm-orders-takedown/104773522
Interesting perspective on the Barton coop:
https://johnmenadue.com/goodbye-democracy-labors-rank-and-file-of-no-consequence/?fbclid=IwY2xjawHgd-tleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHSJrQmUuRbcztoTM1f2DMv5KMKLpG74lUnGTgrwrmb43ujI-zhOnsIwaKg_aem_L7HXFWTSzhFiYgCAuBsO1Q
Lars Von Trier @ #202 Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – 6:10 pm
Stuart Rees! Is he still a thing?
sealion @ #201 Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – 6:07 pm
Oh such a display of these so-called hard-yakka true-blue red-blooded LNP types sticking it to the woke lefty snowflakes by… (checks notes) bitching and whining about them when attacked.
Ye gods the media landscape in Australia is fucking ridiculous.
Even in his retirement he’s fighting the injustice in Barton OC. More than can be said for some who have meekly capitulated to the Coop.
The Wombat says Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 3:52 pm
Nuclear might well make sense in northern Europe. Their high latitude places limits on the potential of solar. However, we don’t share that limitation.
I understand that even France’s nuclear power industry is having economic difficulties as cheaper electricity from renewables undercuts it. The new plant they are currently building is very late and very over budget.
It’s going to be interesting to see what happens in Europe. There’s the potential for places like Spain to buy power from North Africa. New generation HVDC might make it economic for northern Europe to buy from the same place.
That does make me wonder what they will do to stop Chinese ships that have recently visiting Russia from dragging their anchors around the Strait of Gibraltar.
On the topic of “Cryptocurrency is a scam, and has no intrinsic value”. Neither really does fiat currency.
Disclaimer: I have no cryptocurrency of any sort, have always been very cynical about it and am definitely not a cryptobro. I do however have fiat currency in my wallet.
Socrates says Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 5:36 pm
All the evidence is that it’s a good idea (provided you don’t end up building ghettos). However, can you imagine the reaction of the tabloids and talkback if such a policy was announced?
Andrew_Earlwood @ #200 Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – 6:04 pm
He lost in 3 tie-break sets. Playing very well against a strong opponent
Yeah, with countries like Finland, ideas like that work because the main political parties tend to cooperate on them, even when governments change, the projects continue.
That won’t work in Australia because the LNP will simply repeal everything they disagree with when they next go into power and nothing will be gained, and they have the advantage of pretty much the entire capital class behind them so it won’t be much effort for them to do so and undo such efforts.
“He lost in 3 tie-break sets. Playing very well against a strong opponent”
A rust buster. Let’s see how he pulls up and then again in the doubles.
‘bc says:
Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 6:24 pm
Socrates says Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 5:36 pm
On a positive note, my brother sent me this link to a Youtube video documentary on the Finnish Housing Policy, Housing First. The idea is that you build enough public housing to house all the homeless people in a city. The evidence is that, when you add up all the saved public and private costs in health, policing, crime, courts and social services, this is actually cheaper than leaving people on the street, where they occupy a huge amount of social service resources.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0jt_6PBnCJE
This program has been going for ten years, survived changes in government, and has largely worked. There are very few people you see living on the street in Finnish cities. Over to you, Albo…
All the evidence is that it’s a good idea (provided you don’t end up building ghettos). However, can you imagine the reaction of the tabloids and talkback if such a policy was announced?’
=======================
The Albanese Labor Government has invested $19 billion in housing.
This includes a joint package with the NT Labor Government for $4 billion to housing on our poorest by far the most disadvantaged homeless group in Australia – remote area Indigenous communities.
This is more than ALL other federal governments combined have invested in housing, this century.
Dutton has promised to cut all federal expenditure on housing.
Over to you, Australia.
Kirsdarke posted
I’m not a conservative voter. Nor am I a prude. But is it really necessary to post this kind of rubbish?
‘bc says:
Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 6:22 pm
The Wombat says Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 3:52 pm
I’ll point out that the CDU is planning on taking Germany back to nuclear. Although, obviously nuclear is completely impractical. It’s just that once the CDU win the election, every single major western economy will be committed to nuclear power except for Australia. It’s lucky our leadership is so much smarter than everyone else.
Nuclear might well make sense in northern Europe. Their high latitude places limits on the potential of solar. However, we don’t share that limitation.
I understand that even France’s nuclear power industry is having economic difficulties as cheaper electricity from renewables undercuts it. The new plant they are currently building is very late and very over budget.
It’s going to be interesting to see what happens in Europe. There’s the potential for places like Spain to buy power from North Africa. New generation HVDC might make it economic for northern Europe to buy from the same place.
That does make me wonder what they will do to stop Chinese ships that have recently visiting Russia from dragging their anchors around the Strait of Gibraltar.’
====================
China and Russia are laughing at the West.
They are routinely engaging in acts of war and getting away with it. Unless China and Russia can be persuaded by other means, sooner or later the West is going to have to bite this particular bullet.
bc says:
Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 6:23 pm
On the topic of “Cryptocurrency is a scam, and has no intrinsic value”. Neither really does fiat currency.
Very true, but the difference is policies, procedures, regulation and guarantees for currencies. Crypto is just the wild west at the moment. A lot of people are getting scammed by crypto. We still have a way to go to figure this one out.
Personally I believe the big demand for crypto is a tool to move money from A to B without oversight. Especially if you want to move money from countries with exchange controls, or if you are drug smuggling etc. Because there is this demand, it also naturally attracts the get rich quick schemers.
The Albanese Labor Government has invested $19 billion in housing.
________________
Fantastic! how many houses have been built? Must be tens of thousands.
Player Onesays:
Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 5:42 pm
Nice strawman. Did you weave it yourself, or did some Labor apparatchiks weave it for you?
_______________________
Again I’m not sure the conspiracy you are trying to make?
You asked about financial system vs payment system, which I simply tried to highlight the difference. Of course we use cash to engage with financial products, but that is a very different think from the underlying infrastructure that is the “payment system”.
What you call “strawman” is in fact essential elements of the “payment system”:
https://www.rba.gov.au/payments-and-infrastructure/payments-system.html
“The ‘payments system’ refers to arrangements which allow consumers, businesses and other organisations to transfer funds usually held in an account at a financial institution to one another. It includes the payment instruments – cash, cards, cheques and electronic funds transfers – which customers use to make payments and the usually unseen arrangements that ensure that funds move from accounts at one financial institution to another.”
Hell, if I was to be really pedantic, Chalmers used the generic term “crypto” and not “crypto’currencies'”.
‘dave says:
Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 6:46 pm
The Albanese Labor Government has invested $19 billion in housing.
________________
Fantastic! how many houses have been built? Must be tens of thousands.’
=======================
Fantastic, indeed.
Bystander @ #213 Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – 6:40 pm
Well given that most of the global alt-right movement consists of incels bathing in toxic masculinity and resentment about how much more free women are today than they were in the 1950’s and a desire to revert all of that to when a man ruled his house and his wife and children were no more than obedient units then yeah, I think a crass comparability is warranted.
It’s like when sad men going through a midlife crisis decide to buy giant vehicles to make them feel more adequate. People like them see renewable energy as a threat to their masculinity so therefore it must be destroyed.
LNP opposition is no reason to stop implementing good progressive policies such as rebuilding affordable and social housing stock.
There is no reason why future LNP governments (even if majority) will have numbers in Senate to repeal such policies and projects. We fight like hell to defend them and if there is popular support then LNP try to wreck them at their peril.
Most big reforms have had to fight LNP opposition over many years.
“Big reforms” – 700 new houses approved Australia wide after 12 months?
It’s all kind of (to use an expression which would appeal to Dr D) Potemkin Village?
Kirsdarke says Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 6:59 pm
I believe number 6 on the Because Language podcast Word of the Week of the Year list was “wankpanzer”: “A pointlessly large and overpowered 4×4 vehicle, in particular a Tesla Cybertruck”.
The full list is here: https://becauselanguage.com/111-words-of-the-week-of-the-year-2024/ (you will need to scroll a bit).
Lars is happy because Dutton will destroy federal investment in social housing.
Lars is happy with Dutton voting for uncapped student intakes.
Lars is happy with 2 carparks out of 64 promised.
I’m ultra-conservative on urban design in that we need to go back to our Roman roots:
https://youtu.be/ZBIFej2y01s
Global battery markets with Iola Hughes (Head of Research @ Rho Motion): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B4mWrXmj1Js
Note, EVs are now cheaper than ICE vehicles in China.
‘bc says:
Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 7:25 pm
Global battery markets with Iola Hughes (Head of Research @ Rho Motion): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B4mWrXmj1Js
Note, EVs are now cheaper than ICE vehicles in China.’
====================
1. China has subsidized EVs, batteries and panels with $230 billion plus.
2. China, without notice, virtually taxed ICE vehicles off the streets.
3. China has excess EV manufacturing capacity of more than 20 million vehicles a year.
4. Most Chinese EV sales in China are at a loss.
5. EV companies in China are going broke.
6. Around half of China’s battery manufacturing plant is sitting idle, ATM.
7. China burns more coal than the rest of the world combined.
Fantastic! how many houses have been built? Must be tens of thousands.
I believe it’s a million more than the coalition nath.
From the mob that brought us the diminished NBN, the ferries which couldn’t fit under existing bridges, the two out of 64 car parks and Snowy 2.0 without preliminary geo-technical investigation.
Now let’s go for nuclear power generation, undersized for demand, can’t do firming, costs the earth (literally) and in a very dry continent.
These are only a few of the downsides.
I guess it’s real purpose is to prolong coal use but sometimes really stupid ideas get unstoppable traction (see AUKUS for example).
Kirsdarke
Thank you for your reply though I disagree with your conclusions. I see no evidence that the conservative parties in Australia are in favour of removing the rights and freedoms that women now have. Nor do I see it to the degree that you are claiming in any western nation around the world.
As I see it, the countries that are most intent on limiting the freedoms of women and children are some of the Muslim nations where the men have all the rights and women who complain are dealt with very harshly. Presumably you would also judge those men disparagingly in terms of the size of their penises.
Oakeshott Country:
Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 4:31 pm
[‘Mavis
[‘If a medical student you were deferred until qualified but the rumour was that despite the birthday lottery medical students were particularly prone to conscription.’]
Surely there were clear rules thereof – essential services? I bet the guy who failed his exams regrets his lack of studiousness. From my perspective, I joined the RAN in ’65, not to avoid conscription but to escape home wherein my parents were at war. As it turned out, my marble came up. Personal circumstances can be as indeterminate as a summer breeze.
Re: L’twit’s 2025 predictions list. In keeping with the spirit of the list maker I predict that by the end of 2025 Eleni Petinos will be NSW Opposition Leader.
Bystander @ #229 Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – 8:06 pm
I think the analogy I was trying to reach was when Andrew Tate tried to own Greta Thunberg with how many cars he owned and she simply replied with “Small dick energy”, and how that lit the zoomer internet on fire before Tate was arrested for sex trafficking.
Andy that prediction is about as likely in 2025 as Scott’s prediction of Ian Goodenough becoming Opposition Leader in 2024.
Player One @ Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 9:39 am says:
It is not true to say that party policies play “no” part. But both ColesWorth parties are either weak on policy or have bad policies in areas that I think are most significant – so which of their candidates would be a better local member is a more important criteria.
______________________________
Player One,
Thanks for your response, twice!
I understand that you regard both major parties with (more or less) equal disdain and will rank their candidates according to your perceptions as to their suitability. What you seem to be suggesting though is that a fundamental part of their candidacies—the policy platforms on which they stand—does not significantly affect your assessment.
There may come a day when governments in Australia are routinely formed between coalitions of parties and/or independents, but we’re not there yet. In the majority of electorates the real contest remains between the majors, with governments being formed by one of those parties. I’d thus argue that electors should be considering both the micro level (who would be my best/better local member) and the macro level (of the two likely alternatives, which major party has—in this case—the least worst policy platform) when casting a vote and allocating preferences.
‘Bystander says:
Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 8:06 pm
Kirsdarke
Thank you for your reply though I disagree with your conclusions. I see no evidence that the conservative parties in Australia are in favour of removing the rights and freedoms that women now have….’
===============
There is, of course, real world evidence for just that.
Canavan has Bill in the Senate aimed at restricting access to abortions. There were moves in the same direction in the South Australian and Queensland state branches. Price made a public call for restriction on abortion rights. So did Joyce.
Let me discuss how Biden prosecuted Israel war.
After Hamas terrorist attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, how did Biden react?
Terrorist attacks happened all over the world. Correct me if I am wrong, but I can’t remember an US President going to that that country to show solidarity.
Biden could have stayed at home, condemned the gruesome terrorist attack and provided whatever help was needed to Israeli government but Biden went to Israel to show solidarity and declared himself a Zionist. Leftist all over the world, who had some harsh things about Zionists till that time, went silent about them. He was 80 years old, no spring chicken.
Biden not only shown solidarity but provided deadly weapons and never condemned Israel in last 14 months.
Is it possible that one of the reasons for that action was that he thought there were votes in those actions But what were offshoots of those actions in USA.
Muslim Americans became angry and resentful and might have done ‘Votejihad’. Students(white, black and brown) across US University campuses held protests against the ‘atrocities of Israel’. Those protests were forcibly dismantled. What is consequence of that? More young people voted for Trump in this election than ever before.
After Biden went to Israel in October, 2023, Macron and Sunak followed him to show their solidarity with Israeli government and people.
What happened to Macron and Sunak in their countries’ general elections? They were smashed in the their respective elections registering their worst results.
Modi did not go to Israel. He condemned the Terrorist attacks and said all the politically correct things. He did not provide any military equipment or soldiers to Israel.
Who does Netanyahu consider a close personal friend? Biden, Macron, Sunak and Modi? Surprise, Surprise. Modi.
In the end Israeli -Hamas war was a disaster for all the protagonists.
Democrats lost Presidential election and both houses of Congress against the most corrupt and racist Republican party.
Remember that Biden was supposed to be the POTUS with best Foreign policy credentials.
Continuing from my8:54 pm post
BTW, Modi government allowed protests by Muslims and leftist condemning Israeli actions and Modi government’s inaction in support of Gazans.
Netanyahu or his government did not condemn Modi government for allowing those protests, whereas his government and Jews continuously criticised any small missteps in US, UK, Europe and Australia.
The Victorian Labor government has voted against a bill that aimed to expand access to abortion services in publicly funded hospitals across the state.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/aug/17/victorian-labor-government-votes-against-bill-to-widen-access-to-abortion
Bystander at 8.06pm I for one at least agree with your post.
”
sealionsays:
Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 6:42 pm
bc says:
Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 6:23 pm
On the topic of “Cryptocurrency is a scam, and has no intrinsic value”. Neither really does fiat currency.
Very true, but the difference is policies, procedures, regulation and guarantees for currencies. Crypto is just the wild west at the moment. A lot of people are getting scammed by crypto. We still have a way to go to figure this one out.
Personally I believe the big demand for crypto is a tool to move money from A to B without oversight. Especially if you want to move money from countries with exchange controls, or if you are drug smuggling etc. Because there is this demand, it also naturally attracts the get rich quick schemers.
”
This!
My midlife crises vehicle was a MGF. Had to see it when I went through a period of redundancy. Great little car when MG’s were still British.
Mind you I do now have one of those 4*4’s, a Triton. But at least I have used it a great deal for what it was designed to do.
BW while there is some talk in conservative ranks to wind back abortion rights it’s mainly based on misguided religious grounds rather than an attempt to put women barefoot and back in the kitchen.
David
Thanks for your support. I think it’s a no brainer, but for some reason many of those on the left prefer to just turn a blind eye to it.
Ven @ #240 Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – 8:16 pm
Currency is a claim on the community via the government. Crypto is just a plaything between individuals. World of difference. We
Hello there, I’m a bit of a lurker but since it’s New Year’s Eve I decided now would be the best time to post my prediction for the Federal Election in 2025. I’ve made my prediction based on my own research done on specific electorates and from information and opinions I’ve gathered from other people on PB and The Tally Room.
I must admit that whilst I’m interested in politics, I’m not an expert in it (and especially not in statistics), and I’m sure there are many people here who are more knowledgeable in these fields. Feel free to comment on my predictions (in a respectable manner), I’m always happy to learn more.
Note: An asterisk next to the electorate name signifies that I’m unsure about my decision and that there’s some comments I want to add onto the electorate (see extra notes)
Seat Count:
ALP: 67 (-11)
LNP: 65 (+9)
GRN: 6 (+2)
KAT: 1
CA: 1
WSC: 1 (+1): It’s just Dai Le being re-elected as a member of the Western Sydney Community party that she established with Frank Carbone rather than being elected as an Independent.
IND: 9 (-3)
COALITION GAINS FROM LABOR:
Lyons (TAS)*
Gilmore (NSW)
Patterson (NSW)
Bennelong (NSW)
Aston (VIC)
McEwen (VIC)
Lingiari (NT)*
Bullwinkel (WA)
Tangney (WA)*
COALITION FLIPS FROM INDEPENDENT:
Monash (VIC)
Calare (NSW)
GREENS FLIPS FROM LABOR:
Macnamara (VIC)*
Wills (VIC)*
IND FLIP FROM LIBERAL:
Bradfield (NSW)*
Extra notes:
Lyons-
I’m confident that the Liberals will gain Lyons, but the reason why I put it here is because Rebecca White seems to be somewhat popular in Lyons (Topping the polls in Lyons in 3 state elections according to Kevin Bonham) which could give Labor a small chance at keeping Lyons.
Lingiari-
Lingiari is one of Labor’s most marginal seats and despite the huge swing against Labor in the NT Election there’s two reasons why I feel unsure about my predictions here. Assuming that the NT redistribution manages to pass before the election, the removal of Palmerston has pushed up Labor’s margins from 0.9% to 1.6%. It’s still a narrow margin, but one which makes it slightly likelier for Labor to win. The main reason why I put an * on Lingiari is because iirc, the AEC invested more resources in enrolling Aboriginals to vote during the Voice referendum; assuming that they will turn out to vote, I could see the Aboriginal vote in Lingiari help Labor retain the seat due to Dutton’s rhetoric and policies on Aboriginals like pushing back on Welcome to Country and the Aboriginal Flag.
Tangney-
This is my electorate, and one where initially, I confidently put as a Liberal gain (after Howard Ong was nominated as the Liberal candidate) because Tangney is traditionally a safe Liberal seat and Sam Lim’s main advantage being his ability to appeal to Chinese voters being wiped due to the Liberals picking a candidate of Chinese descent. However, the more I thought about my pick, the more I began to doubt it. Sam Lim is a person that is somewhat popular in the area due to his past work as a Police Officer (voted best Police Officer in WA in 2020 iirc) and his knowledge of 9 or 10 languages allows him to connect with ethnic communities in Tangney (a lot of his efforts in Tangney also included supporting new community language schools) There’s a high chance he has a personal vote which may keep him in office. In addition, Labor fixing relations with China and Dutton’s past remarks about China could help Lim as it could sway Chinese voters into voting for him (iirc the Chinese votes and preferences flowing to him helped get Lim elected in the first place)
Tangney also helps me highlight two things Labor needs to have to increase their chances at being reelected: Good candidate quality and appealing to Chinese-Australians.
Candidates that are active in the community and are well liked by people are more likely to have a high personal vote that helps Labor retain marginal seats that are in danger of falling to the Liberals. That’s the reason why I think MPs like Gordon Reid, Dan Repacholi and Mike Freelander can hold onto Robertson, Hunter and MacArthur despite the MRP Polls suggesting a close race in these electorates.
Even tho I’m Chinese-Australian, I find hard to gauge what issues are top of mind for the majority. Morrison is gone and the Liberals have been nominating Chinese candidates in electorates with high Chinese population (e.g., Howard Ong in Tangney, Scott Yung in Bennelong and Grange Chung in Reid) which will help improve Chinese sentiments towards the Liberals. The cost of living issue being an increasingly important problem for the Chinese also helps with the Liberals recovering their Chinese vote. On the other hand, Dutton’s past remarks about China and Labor recovering relations with China could push Chinese voters into voting for Labor again. Even though relations with China isn’t the top problem for many Chinese-Australians, it’s still at the back of the mind of many Chinese-Australians. From discussions with other Chinese-Australians, there’s still some concerns about how Dutton will handle China.
The Greens in general (I’m confident that the Greens will gain at least 1 seat off Labor, what seat that is, idk):
The reason why I put Macnamara as a Greens gain is mainly because I think the 5% swing against Labor in VIC will mean that Labor will lose votes to both the Greens and Liberals over issues like housing and cost of living. Given the already tight 3CP results between Liberals, Greens and Labor, I think it’s possible Labor loses enough votes to the Greens (or more people preference the Greens over Labor in 3CP) and carry them to victory. I’m aware that Macnamara has a high Jewish population (which may help Josh Burns retain the seat through tactical voting for Labor) but the Greens were already Pro-Palestine even before Oct. 7 so any voters who don’t like the Greens over their position Palestine were already not going to vote Greens in the first place.
As for Wills, redistribution has dragged the electorate further South into more Greens friendly areas. Normally I would say that Labor could hold the seat but from what I’ve heard, Peter Khalil is Pro-American/Western in foreign policy and from what I’ve seen, he aligns more with Labor’s current policy on the Palestine issue which isn’t popular with Arab voters, who make up a significant portion of the electorate. Ik it’s a bit of an oversimplification (or an inaccurate take from an outsider) but I see Wills as being an electorate where the two major groups are Greens voters and Arab voters, Labor appealing to the latter allowed them to hold onto the seat but now that both groups are miffed towards Labor, the Greens have an easier time taking Wills.
Bradfield:
The Teals are a huge question mark for me in general. I doubt they’ll win any seats besides Bradfield, but I doubt they’ll lose seats either. Dutton hasn’t made an effort in trying to regain the Teal votes through his position on Climate Change (and Nuclear) and Aboriginal Issues (considering all Teal seats voted yes for the Voice iirc) The other difficult thing about analysing the Teals is that their races are localised to a specific electorate it’s hard for me to gauge the how people in current and target Teals electorates feel about them. (A lot of the opinions I’ve seen on Teals come from people who don’t even live in Teal or Teal target electorates)
The reason I believe Nicole Boele might win this seat because:
– There’s no incumbent, no incumbency advantage for the Liberals.
– Boele has kept campaigning in Bradfield as the “Shadow Member for Bradfield” and would be the most familiar candidate for people in Bradfield.
– Redistribution has added parts of North Sydney into the electorate, adding more Teal voters in Bradfield. I suspect that there still isn’t a large appetite for both major parties given that on Liberals should outpolling Labor by around 53-47 rather than a 50-50 split.
However if the Liberals preselect Gisele Kapterian, a moderate young female candidate, I’ll move Bradfield into a Liberal retain or a Toss up.
Labor gaining seats off Liberals???:
I doubt Labor will gain seats off Liberals, but their only chance at a pickup is Sturt in SA given Labor’s high popularity there.
There’s also other seats like Menzies and Deakin. I doubt they can win Menzies despite redistribution because Keith Wolohan is a moderate who tries to appeal to the Chinese Community. I think Labor’s more likely to win Deakin over Menzies, but given the unpopularity of Labor in VIC, I think Sukkar can hold.
Very comprehensive Bludgeoned Westie. That would result in some interesting post election negotiations.
Welcome to the forum (or at least moving up from lurking), Bludgeoned Westie.
Don’t worry about not being an expert – pretty much everyone else here isn’t one either (although they sometimes carry on like they are.) You’re having a punt, and an informative one, and that’s what counts. Even if you end up being wrong, you had a go. And, it’s not like your prediction is too far out there.
Anyone who has a problem with it is free to put their own prediction up.
Bizzcan @ #217 Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – 6:50 pm
So … “Labor apparatchiks” then?
arraitch @ #234 Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – 8:39 pm
We can bring on that day in a single election.
If we want to.
It is … entirely … up to us.
And not the “parties”.
It is just that many people don’t seem to realize it.
Yet.