Nine Newspapers yesterday had Resolve Strategic’s quarterly state breakdowns, combined from their past three monthly polls. These aren’t news with respect to the three largest states, results for which are provided with each poll. That leaves fresh results for Western Australia, which show Labor on 30% (up one on last quarter, down from 36.8% at the 2022 election), the Coalition on 37% (up two, up from 34.8%), the Greens on 12% (down four, down from 12.5%) and One Nation 5% (steady, up from 4.0%). and South Australia, which show Labor on 27% (down one on last quarter, down from 34.5% at the election), the Coalition on 34% (down two, down from 35.5%), the Greens on 12% (down two, down from 12.8%) and One Nation on 8% (up two, up from 4.8%). The combined sample for the poll was 4831, with surveying conducted between October 1 and December 8.
Also published on Sunday were familiarity and net likeability results for 34 politicians from the most recent monthly survey. These seem to have elicited rote responses for most of the lower-ranking government ministers, eight of whom scored between between 41% and 55% on name recognition and between minus one and minus five on net likeability. Coalition politicians in the same name recognition range did better, ranging from even to plus seven.
The most instructive results were for those with familiarity scores of 70% and upwards, peaking at 98% for Anthony Albanese (minus 17 on net likeability) and 95% for Peter Dutton (even). Jacinta Price was the most favoured major party politician with 71% familiarity and plus 8 net likeability, though David Pocock and a number of Liberals did only slightly less well with much lower familiarity scores. Labor’s best performer was Penny Wong with 89% familiarity and plus 2 on net likeability. The worst result for a major party politician was Barnaby Joyce with 90% familiarity and minus 22 net likeability.
Jacqui Lambie tops the list, with 80% familiarity and plus 14 net likeability. David Pocock and Zali Steggall’s results were respectively good and mediocre, but otherwise non-major party politicians did poorly, Adam Bandt, Sarah Hanson-Young, Bob Katter and Fatima Payman all landing between minus 11 and minus 17. Worst-rated of all was Lidia Thorpe, whose recent activities have succeeded to the extent of scoring her 73% familiarity, with a net rating of minus 41 presumably demonstrating one point or another.
UPDATE: Further results have been published for age broken down into three cohorts. For 18-to-34, Labor is on 33% (up two from last quarter, steady on what was presumably the pre-election Resolve Strategic poll), the Coalition 27% (up two on both counts), the Greens 23% (down four, down two). For 35-to-54, Labor is on 30% (up two and down four), the Coalition 34% (down two and up two) and the Greens 12% (steady on both counts). For 55-plus, Labor is on 25% (down two and down eight), the Coalition 50% (up three and up four) and the Greens 4% (steady and down one).
Ante Meridian @ #2199 Monday, January 6th, 2025 – 9:50 pm
It’s just there’s the thing with their electoral system. I highly doubt an emergency King’s Speech by Charles that goes “According to all the billionaires and right wing press, my government is quite shit, so therefore I will dissolve it immediately and will hope the British People will therefore vote for the party they tell me will be more suited to this nation.”
Hey Pageboi
Hope you had a good holiday season and the fish were biting!
Saw your Xmas menu and it was sensational!
Good time would have been had by all!
Musk is probably planning on taking Starmer out Salvador Allende style.
I wonder who be has in mind for the Pinochet role.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/social-media-chefs-are-putting-kids-off-cooking-says-nutrition-expert-20250106-p5l28n.html
As my grandmother said, and Dad who learnt it from her.
Keep it simple, it’s not hard.
Memories of lovely dinners from long gone people who tried to pass those skills onto me.
As a centre left slightly tealish individual I resent being lumped in with left eco fascists, unreconstructed hard left democratic socialists, and boring arse bland as shit centrists.
Trudeau is deeply unpopular, his last disapproval rating was 74%, so been a dead man walking for awhile now but I doubt an earlier resignation would have improved Liberal chances of retaining govt, they were always going to lose it’s a matter of the margin. Canada has similar problems to what Australia is facing, principally astronomical housing costs made worse by record levels of immigration and governments that are considered ineffective in addressing this.
The Liberals being in govt for 10 years are probably going to cop more blowback for the situation then a first term Labor govt. Installing a new PM is not going to fix their political problems though it might save a few seats having a leader who is at least not so overwhelmingly disliked.
If the the UK is anything like Australia, the UK would have a large demographic of multi-generational non-white conservatives who are just as anti-migrant as the chalk white English (ie, bridge burners).
Farage and Reform would likely be guessing that this is a fertile cohort to nab from the Conservatives, so a white supremacist like Tommy R would not fit that messaging.
Musk moved from one black vs white country to another black vs white country, and does not understand multicultural politics.
Werribee by election to be held the same date at Prahran : 8-Feb.
Lars at 9.01 pm and Griff at 9.17 pm
“I’m still a supporter of teal led minority [Labor] govt.”
Let’s get Lars’ view in perspective. Despite his fantasies about Barton and Lilley, he has realism.
The Teals are holding, trying to retain, and trying to win more heartland Liberal seats. They are not a party, but that is practically what unites them.
They represent a historic attempt to transform politics in the H of Reps, the first one for ages.
For background on the teals in the 2022 election, read this chapter from Watershed (2023):
https://press-files.anu.edu.au/downloads/press/n11054/pdf/ch14.pdf
Consequently, if one supports teal influence over a minority government, it must be Labor that is the government subject to serious teal influence, which will be interesting, because the teals are likely to be better negotiators than Andrew Wilkie or the Greens.
As for speculation about the electoral impact of Dutton’s nuclear policy, wait for the election.
Dr Doolittle
Zelensky has made some fairly blunt remarks in that interview with Lex Fridman that Sprocket posted a link to earlier. They are starting to get reported.
https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-rebukes-budapest-memorandum-signatories/
Dr Doolittle
Consequently, if one supports teal influence over a minority government, it must be Labor that is the government subject to serious teal influence, which will be interesting, because the teals are likely to be better negotiators than Andrew Wilkie or the Greens.
———————
Australian politics might be better off if teals back the liberals if it brought liberals back to a more sensible centre right position matching the teal seats and labor isn’t there for the wealthy so there’s dangers in getting too close to the teals.
State District of Werribee (Vic) – outer Western Suburbs of Gtr Melbourne.
By-Election date: Sat 8-Feb
By election caused by the resignation of the Treasurer.
Last Election (15 candidates, which is surprisingly high)
* ALP 45%
* Libs 25%
* Grns 7%
2PP 60.9% ALP, so a 10.9% margin. ie Fairly safe seat.
Rough Guess at voters on the roll – 44000
Outer suburban area in one of the fastest growing regions of Australia. The Green vote is anaemic, suggesting a fight between the two majors. Libs will need their primary to lift by about 17%, to be with a chance. Can’t see this happenning. Maybe an 8-10% swing to the Libs, but this won’t be enough.
The new leader – Battin – will be happy with a 10% primary swing I suppose.
Looks like a Labor retain to me.
I’ll do some more research and check back.
Election year, with inflation the chief enemy of incumbents. Labor would be wise to work on a “You can’t afford Peter Dutton” theme. Explain where average earners would be with the Morrison stage 3 tax cuts, compared to Labor’s package, cost of nuclear etc.
Liberals have been talking about Werribee since Kennett’s years but its stayed labor.
Democracy Sausage says:
Monday, January 6, 2025 at 9:22 pm
You are correct. I am big enough to look after myself.
Thanks for the support. I assure you the ones who attack me just make me laugh – the immaturity and petulance of supposed adults does however surprise me occasionally. It’s basically like a primary school for many of them. The moral certitude of them is priceless and makes it all the more hilarious every time they get their arses handed to them by electorates all around the world, and then they blame everyone but themselves.
Lefty_e says:
Monday, January 6, 2025 at 10:59 pm
Yep, make it about Dutton, because he delivered all the inflationary budgets that stopping the RBA lowering rates and the voters are apparently too dumb to have noticed those facts that have been widely reported.
Lefty_e at 10:59 pm
Election year, with inflation the chief enemy of incumbents. Labor would be wise to work on a “You can’t afford Peter Dutton” theme. Explain where average earners would be with the Morrison stage 3 tax cuts, compared to Labor’s package, cost of nuclear etc.
——————
Very risky strategy with a riposte of “how much more is your rent than it was in 2022? How much more is your mortgage repayment than it was in 2022? How much more is your grocery bill than it was in 2022?”
If Labor highlights cost of living in the campaign, I think it’s immediately on shaky ground. Unless there’s more relief to come in the campaign, in which case a contrite “we appreciate things haven’t been great, but they’re going in the right direction and here’s how” might work. Chalmers’ recent interviews in the papers suggests this might be the angle Labor runs.
Lefty_e says:
Monday, January 6, 2025 at 10:59 pm
Election year, with inflation the chief enemy of incumbents. Labor would be wise to work on a “You can’t afford Peter Dutton” theme. Explain where average earners would be with the Morrison stage 3 tax cuts, compared to Labor’s package, cost of nuclear etc.
========================
The libs ran a similar campaign in 2022. ie: “it won’t be easy under Albanese”. It didn’t work.
Most likely the Libs will run something like – “do you want another 3 years of this?”
With regard to incumbents, the one’s which have lost, apart from the Dems in the US, were/will be long term governments.
Solar paint on a car that can charge it.
This seems a bit farfetched but who knows what can be done in a few years:
Here are the key claims distilled from the Benz press release:
The solar paint would add just 5 micrometers (0.0002 in) of thickness and 50 g of weight per square meter (0.17 oz per square foot) to a standard paint job
It would operate at around 20% efficiency
An area of 11 sq m (118 sq ft), or roughly the painted surface of a mid-size SUV, “could produce enough energy for up to 12,000 km (7,456 miles) a year under ideal conditions” in Stuttgart, Germany
That annual figure would be closer to 20,000 km (12,427 miles) in LA, or 14,000 km (8,700 miles) in Beijing
It contains no rare earths, no silicon, no toxic or supply-limited materials
It’s recyclable
It’s “considerably cheaper to produce than conventional solar modules”
The company says that based on local solar intensity and its own data on daily driving habits, this solar paint could completely eliminate plug-in charging for the average EV owner in Los Angeles making their daily commute.
https://newatlas.com/automotive/mercedes-benz-solar-paint/
Stinker says:
Monday, January 6, 2025 at 11:12 pm
Yeah! Budget deficits as far as the forward estimates go – but they won’t be inflationary. Promise.
Lefty_e says:
Monday, January 6, 2025 at 10:59 pm
You mean the ones who already got the Stage 1 and 2 tax cuts?
Jesus, they were hard done by.
Stinker @ #2217 Monday, January 6th, 2025 – 11:12 pm
Well for a start Labor could do well to advertise the increases in Rent Assistance that they did last year. Apparently hardly anyone knows about it. I do though, and it’s helped my financial situation incredibly.
Deficits are going to get a lot worse when Dutton piles on the debt to pay for his 300-600 billion dollar nuclear stupidity. What’s the interest on that?
The plan is to almost double government debt.
Teals – not a party. Apparently.
It’s more like Clive Palmer but with a dilettante son spending Dad’s money.
Where’s it tracking Fubar?
I’m in the Labor minority club, with the Greens and a gaggle of Teals. Will be a messy Parliament, with possibly another election in 2026.
Where do you think things are heading atm?
FUBAR at 11:21 pm
Yeah! Budget deficits as far as the forward estimates go – but they won’t be inflationary. Promise.
——————
Well, the surpluses haven’t cured the inflation monster, so maybe it’s time to give deficits a go?
WTF?
You think current polling has excluded the policy? How?
Kirsdarke at 11:24 pm
Well for a start Labor could do well to advertise the increases in Rent Assistance that they did last year. Apparently hardly anyone knows about it. I do though, and it’s helped my financial situation incredibly.
————————
I would’ve thought that crowing about increasing welfare payments (other than age pension) could end up being a double-edged sword for the Government.
A fair post at 10.39pm Dr D.
Stinker
I would’ve thought that crowing about increasing welfare payments (other than age pension) could end up being a double-edged sword for the Government.
——————-
They will campaign on child care subsidies and paid parental leave so higher welfare might not hurt them.
How to say that you have a passport from a South American country without saying you have one.
That, or you’re going to win a Nobel Prize for Economics. The Dr Barry Marshall of economics.
Dr Doolittle
“Consequently, if one supports teal influence over a minority government, it must be Labor that is the government subject to serious teal influence, which will be interesting, because the teals are likely to be better negotiators than Andrew Wilkie or the Greens.”
———————
I agree. Assuming we are headed for minority government I can’t see the teals supporting a Liberal government.
At a policy level there are core teal issues (action on climate change) the Liberals under Dutton are opposed to.
At a personal level the Liberals are engaged in bitter struggles to recover every teal seat. They are enemies. I think the personal conflicts will preclude a deal.
I wonder if the CPSU secretly wants Dutton’s nuclear policy to get up. That’s a lot of new union members added to their ranks if it does.
FUBAR at 11:32 pm
How to say that you have a passport from a South American country without saying you have one.
That, or you’re going to win a Nobel Prize for Economics. The Dr Barry Marshall of economics.
——————-
Or it was a joke, dingus.
Stinker @ #2228 Monday, January 6th, 2025 – 11:29 pm
It’s actually a payment that addresses the cost of living crisis, unless we have to go through a stupid tangled maze of what actually is a worthy government solution and what isn’t.
If increasing rental assistance is a bad thing electorally, then what’s the bloody point of addressing it at all? Of course unless keeping on making it a problem so that it just makes more and more people want to flip their votes to the Coalition.
nadia88 says:
Monday, January 6, 2025 at 11:26 pm
Polling clearly indicates an ALP minority. The LNP aren’t stupid enough to go into minority government with the lunatics on the Cross Benches now.
Needs a couple of percent added to LNP FP for them to win a majority.
I’m interested to see how close the LNP get in Werribee – might panic the horses if they get within 5.
Nadia: check out the Altona by-election in 2010, in the third term of the Bracks / Brumby government. Similar part of Melbourne, similar circumstances (senior minister retiring). Labor copped a 12% swing, and went on to narrowly lose the state election later that year.
Differences: Werribee is less safe than Altona was, so Labor could conceivably lose the seat. On the flipside, the state Libs back then weren’t going through leadership drama like they currently are.
It’ll be interesting watching the Libs try to campaign in both seats at the same time – about the same margin (against two different parties), but drastically different seats. It’d be a funny look if they campaign harder in Werribee, which they haven’t held since 1979, than Prahran, a seat they held last time they were in government.
Other than the aged pensions, many voters don’t really like welfare spending that much. At best, they tolerate it as necessary but there is still a lot of downward envy there, especially when it comes to the unemployed. “Lazy bums” and all that.
Boasting that you’ve increased rent assistance for welfare recipients could just lead to a lot of people being annoyed at the government for helping “dole bludgers” but not workers like them, who are also struggling but not getting assistance.
Kirsdarke at 11:36 pm
It’s actually a payment that addresses the cost of living crisis, unless we have to go through a stupid tangled maze of what actually is a worthy government solution and what isn’t.
If increasing rental assistance is a bad thing electorally, then what’s the bloody point of addressing it at all? Of course unless keeping on making it a problem so that it just makes more and more people want to flip their votes to the Coalition.
——————
I get all of that, and I am not saying it’s a bad policy at all. Indeed, it’s a sensible, tangible way to alleviate cost of living issues, and it’s appropriately targeted.
But coming out and making a song and dance about increased rent assistance could also invite resentment amongst mortgage holders and non-welfare recipient renters. “Why are they getting more when they’re already getting handouts, while I’m going backwards and can’t get squat?”
Mexicanbeemer says:
Monday, January 6, 2025 at 10:56 pm
That’s a terrible idea. Look what’s happened to the UK Conservatives trying to play Watermelon. They’re out of government and the UK has some of the highest energy prices in the world, massive energy poverty. A complete disaster.
Stick to being Conservatives and tell the ecofascists to pound sand.
When thinking of any potential government strategy, people here (and, more seriously, the well-paid strategists in the Labor party) would do well to remember they are not the median swing voter.
Okay, those arguments are fair. And honestly make me a bit frightened in just how delicate the social security safety net in Australia actually is.
Because welfare payments are indexed to inflation, welfare recipients have had higher income growth than wage earners – their real incomes have kept up with inflation. Yay! Let’s rub the noses of the wage earners in the dirt – who have had massive real wages falls that will take a decade or more to recover from. And thanks for the high interest rates.
Kirsdarkesays:
Monday, January 6, 2025 at 11:46 pm
Okay, those arguments are fair. And honestly make me a bit frightened in just how delicate the social security safety net in Australia actually is.
__________
Familiarize yourself with the history of the Single Parenting Payment if you want to be really frightened.
Personally, I don’t mind dole bludgers. But I have a soft spot for welfare frauds, thieves, whores and swindlers.
You can be excused as it was holidays but that’s fish and chips wrapper now. Done and dusted.
Kirsdarke @ #2242 Monday, January 6th, 2025 – 11:16 pm
One potential thing that concerns me is Labor survive this election, albeit with a minority, then have a subsequent 2011-13 situation, where their polling goes down the drain and, out of desperation and trying to look “tough” for middle voters, they start instituting “reforms.” We saw that with the aforementioned Single Parenting Payment.
Also, you might be horrified to learn what can actually be done unilaterally from a minister’s desk, rather than through any legislation in this regard.
Aren’t the Teals meant to be for Liberal voters who belief in human caused massive end of civilisation climate change with Australia being head global criminal?
We already know their voting records – so we know that any pretence of having any Liberal Party affiliation is a complete lie.
I find it sickening when politicians (and the public) demonise the unemployed while at the same time enacting policies designed to enshrine a minimum level of unemployment – the Non Inflationary Something Whatever, you know the one I mean. So they make sure (or try to make sure) a certain number of people cannot find work no matter what, then blame the poor bastards for their plight.
And we, the voters, let them get away with it.
Fubars after dark fact free rampage continues.
I would try to repute, but then why bother?
I see some anger and frustration there?
Is it a sense of a lost cause?