Nine Newspapers yesterday had Resolve Strategic’s quarterly state breakdowns, combined from their past three monthly polls. These aren’t news with respect to the three largest states, results for which are provided with each poll. That leaves fresh results for Western Australia, which show Labor on 30% (up one on last quarter, down from 36.8% at the 2022 election), the Coalition on 37% (up two, up from 34.8%), the Greens on 12% (down four, down from 12.5%) and One Nation 5% (steady, up from 4.0%). and South Australia, which show Labor on 27% (down one on last quarter, down from 34.5% at the election), the Coalition on 34% (down two, down from 35.5%), the Greens on 12% (down two, down from 12.8%) and One Nation on 8% (up two, up from 4.8%). The combined sample for the poll was 4831, with surveying conducted between October 1 and December 8.
Also published on Sunday were familiarity and net likeability results for 34 politicians from the most recent monthly survey. These seem to have elicited rote responses for most of the lower-ranking government ministers, eight of whom scored between between 41% and 55% on name recognition and between minus one and minus five on net likeability. Coalition politicians in the same name recognition range did better, ranging from even to plus seven.
The most instructive results were for those with familiarity scores of 70% and upwards, peaking at 98% for Anthony Albanese (minus 17 on net likeability) and 95% for Peter Dutton (even). Jacinta Price was the most favoured major party politician with 71% familiarity and plus 8 net likeability, though David Pocock and a number of Liberals did only slightly less well with much lower familiarity scores. Labor’s best performer was Penny Wong with 89% familiarity and plus 2 on net likeability. The worst result for a major party politician was Barnaby Joyce with 90% familiarity and minus 22 net likeability.
Jacqui Lambie tops the list, with 80% familiarity and plus 14 net likeability. David Pocock and Zali Steggall’s results were respectively good and mediocre, but otherwise non-major party politicians did poorly, Adam Bandt, Sarah Hanson-Young, Bob Katter and Fatima Payman all landing between minus 11 and minus 17. Worst-rated of all was Lidia Thorpe, whose recent activities have succeeded to the extent of scoring her 73% familiarity, with a net rating of minus 41 presumably demonstrating one point or another.
UPDATE: Further results have been published for age broken down into three cohorts. For 18-to-34, Labor is on 33% (up two from last quarter, steady on what was presumably the pre-election Resolve Strategic poll), the Coalition 27% (up two on both counts), the Greens 23% (down four, down two). For 35-to-54, Labor is on 30% (up two and down four), the Coalition 34% (down two and up two) and the Greens 12% (steady on both counts). For 55-plus, Labor is on 25% (down two and down eight), the Coalition 50% (up three and up four) and the Greens 4% (steady and down one).
Those generating assets that can’t be switched off are paying thought the nose at he moment. In 20 years time that could be Dutton’s Nuclear power plants.
Yippy for nuclear.
frednk @ #151 Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – 1:22 pm
Yep. As the renewables penetration increases, the times when coal generators have to pay to be allowed to supply to the market rather than shutting off (which is very expensive and has maintenance implications as these old devices don’t like being stopped and started) will only increase.
They will be increasingly uneconomic and operators will be threatening to close them down, which will lead to increasing requests for funding from government to keep them operating to avoid blackouts. At some point governments will realise that direct investment in renewables and storage is cheaper than the subsidies (if it isn’t already) From there the demise of coal will be very quick.
Player Onesays:
Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 2:20 pm
Socrates @ #122 Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – 1:21 pm
I have said before I think Crypto is a scam. Best case it is pure speculation; worst case it is a pyramid scheme. There is no inherent value to extract.
If Chalmers wants to regulate it then that may be OK. But for a government that has not focused on economic reform it is a very low priority.
Michael West sums it up well …
https://michaelwest.com.au/crypto-tip-toe-jim-chalmers-a-tad-desperate-bitcoin/
And too bad Jim Chalmers is talking bullshit about crypto instead of taking the ball up on real reform. A sign of desperation.
I would say Snake Chalmers is suffering “relevance deprivation” rather than “desperation”. but it’s still a fair summary.
________________________
A BS take by Pascoe, somehow suggesting that the ministry in charge of financial regulation should not be looking at … financial regulation.
ASIC’s discussion paper already suggests that “meme coins” and NFTs are unlikely to be treated as financial instruments (more like buy at your own risk memorabilia).
https://asic.gov.au/regulatory-resources/find-a-document/consultations/cp-381-updates-to-info-225-digital-assets-financial-products-and-services/
I am constantly amazed about how many pages of commentary and drama is produced just on someone’s “tone” with little regard to the actual proposed regulations.
The important thing is to get in and criticize Labor and Labor ministers before you actually know what they are doing.
Hiss. Boo. Yah. Suck.
Now for something real: tomorrow marks the start date for numerous Labor COL initiatives as well as the start of the Vehicles Emissions Scheme.
Looking like the Canadian Liberals are in wipeout territory, according to an end of year Angus Reid poll.
Conservatives: 45 (+2 from last poll, +11 from last election)
New Democrats: 21 (+1 from last poll, +3 from last election)
Liberals: 16 (-4 from last poll, -17 from last election)
Bloc Quebecois: 11 (0 from last poll, +3 from last election)
Greens: 3 (-1 from last poll, +1 from last election)
Peoples’ Party: 1 (0 from last poll, -4 from last election)
Trudeau would be lucky to hold on to his own seat of Papineau in inner-city Montreal if the election turns out this bad for him, although if the Liberals lose a seat like that it’d either be to the NDP or BQ.
Interesting article in light of recent discussion here: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/19/could-australias-outdated-voltage-standards-be-taking-years-off-the-life-of-your-toaster
steve davis:
Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 2:02 pm
[‘Between AUKUS and nuclear power stations the country will be bankrupt.’]
I agree, and I’m worried about my defined pension.
Mate
You haven’t got a worry in the world.
They will sell female public servants into slavery before defaulting on the money getting to your bank.
As one of PBs eminent constitutional lawyers explained a referendum would be required for you to miss out.
I agree with the earlier comments that health and/or Mediscare 2.0 are likely to be major topics for the election. Opinion polling on “major election issues” always places health in the top 5, but more importantly it the only one of these top issues where the ALP consistently polls better than the Coalition on the “who best to manage” question.
I also agree with Oakeshott that there’s a lot still to come in NSW on the battle with the medical workforce, and I think it may have some impact in a few of the potential regional and outer metro federal swing seats. Both the NSW and Federal ALP are digging in on this one. A week ago, more than 200 of the 290 public psychiatrists in NSW had quit; there are about 500 positions across the state so only about 20% are now filled. And it isn’t just psychiatrists, it’s now a range of specialist services, largely those who work on a staff basis although transitioning VMO contracting to staff contracting is also contributing as we see with Gosford obstetrics. And the nurses seem to be on the move, too.
@Bizzcan:
“I am constantly amazed about how many pages of commentary and drama is produced just on someone’s “tone” with little regard to the actual proposed regulations.”
______
When one factors in that … checks notes … 100% of said commentary and confected drama is produced by paid up members of the Anti Labor Party, Party bludger cartel there is nothing to be amazed about at all.
Kirsdarke @ #155 Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – 2:11 pm
Clock’s ticking. The Christmas-New Year break is just about over, and business will resume (that includes all the political pressures from the previous year) and the pressure will be back on Justin to go.
If they want to at least save some furniture (I think the Conservatives are going to win regardless), they’re going to have to act very soon.
https://arena.gov.au/blog/german-energy-leader-brings-energiewende-to-australia/, hmmm, 5 years ago
It seems to me that having the US$ as the de facto reserve currency of most of the world it might be prudent to start considering an alternative.
I have been mystified by Bitcoin for almost a decade but to ignore it is just denying reality.
I’ll point out that the CDU is planning on taking Germany back to nuclear. Although, obviously nuclear is completely impractical. It’s just that once the CDU win the election, every single major western economy will be committed to nuclear power except for Australia. It’s lucky our leadership is so much smarter than everyone else.
Albo is a trained economist wombat !
On predictions:
https://citynews.com.au/2024/tomorrow-arrives-but-its-a-mostly-different-world/?utm_source=mailpoet&utm_medium=email&utm_source_platform=mailpoet&utm_campaign=canberra-daily-today-s-news-today_7801
‘The Wombat says:
Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 3:52 pm
I’ll point out that the CDU is planning on taking Germany back to nuclear. Although, obviously nuclear is completely impractical. It’s just that once the CDU win the election, every single major western economy will be committed to nuclear power except for Australia. It’s lucky our leadership is so much smarter than everyone else.’
——————-
D’oh! Horses for courses. Apples and oranges.
Australia has a massive niche international competitive advantage with respect to cheap renewable energy.
The real question is this: Why do the Liberals and the Nationals so badly want to trash that niche advantage?
Germany on nuclear on the 14th Nov 2024 & the atomic energy body claiming logic to return to nuclear power.
And this on the 15th!
https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/nuclear-plant-operator-rejects-ideas-restart-germanys-reactors-economical-grounds
Germany’s electricity production is surprisingly dirty.
15% brown coal! Who do they think they are: Victoria?
https://www.cleanenergywire.org/factsheets/germanys-energy-consumption-and-power-mix-charts
Oakeshott Country:
Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 3:19 pm
[‘Mate
You haven’t got a worry in the world.
They will sell female public servants into slavery before defaulting on the money getting to your bank.
As one of PBs eminent constitutional lawyers explained a referendum would be required for you to miss out.’]
Thank you for that vote of confidence in the government’s ability to continue paying my DFRDB pension, which I’ve received for 40 years. But I detect in your post a niggling feeling you’re not so well disposed.
Cheer up, though, at least you weren’t conscripted(?).
Bizzcan @ #153 Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – 2:36 pm
And I am amazed at how someone who should have know better than to comment on such things could make such a rookie mistake. Unless … maybe it wasn’t a mistake. Maybe it was just testing the waters on a potential change of government policy on cryptocurrency.
However, there is one very significant obstacle to that …
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/it-s-not-money-bitcoin-has-no-role-in-the-australian-economy-says-bullock-20241114-p5kqhp.html
Only one of the Treasurer or the RBA can prevail on this. And based on recent performance, it won’t be Snake Chalmers.
Sundry PB Luddites – “Cryptocurrency is a scam, and has no intrinsic value”
ChatGPT –
“Cryptocurrency itself doesn’t have intrinsic value in the traditional sense. Unlike physical assets like gold or commodities, or even certain financial assets like bonds, cryptocurrencies generally don’t represent ownership in a tangible or productive asset.
However, there are a few factors that can give cryptocurrencies a form of perceived value:
Utility:
Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin or Ethereum have value because they can be used for certain purposes, such as transferring value globally, executing smart contracts, or serving as a store of wealth (in the case of Bitcoin). The more widely these use cases are adopted, the greater the perceived value.
Scarcity:
Many cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin, have a fixed supply or a controlled issuance schedule, which can create scarcity. This scarcity can make them valuable if there is demand for their use or if they are seen as a hedge against inflation.
Network Effects:
The value of cryptocurrencies can also be driven by the size and strength of their underlying networks. A larger, more active network (e.g., Ethereum’s smart contract ecosystem or Bitcoin’s store of value narrative) can increase the asset’s value as it becomes more widely used and trusted.
Security and Decentralization:
The cryptographic and decentralized nature of blockchain technology can be appealing, providing trustless, secure transactions. These characteristics can contribute to the perceived value of certain cryptocurrencies.
In summary, while cryptocurrencies may not have intrinsic value in the traditional sense of being tied to a physical asset, their value is driven by utility, scarcity, security, and adoption, which can make them valuable in the eyes of users and investors.”
Boerwar @ #167 Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – 4:03 pm
Because energy produced from hippy sunshine and rainbows makes their dicks feel small pretty much.
Mavis
I was just a little young but I used to work with a few guys who were medical students during the conscription years. They all told the same story, the only time in their life that they voted Labor was 1972.
If a medical student you were deferred until qualified but the rumour was that despite the birthday lottery medical students were particularly prone to conscription.
I had another friend who enjoyed many edibles and other things in his early university years. His number came up but was given an immediate deferment. He failed 1st year but just missed exclusion by scrapping in on the second attempt but he needed to pass 2nd year at the first go. He just missed in one subject and despite begging for a remark was excluded. And so off to Vietnam as a chocco.
Why?
Because, to the fossil fuel industry, renewables (esp. solar, & wind) are like kryptonite to Superman.
They’re cheaper & cleaner & don’t need big investment. The competition from suppliers will mean profits from energy suppliers will be lower than from FF.
Big batteries are already providing necessary backup.
The more people get used to using electricity instead of FF for travel, cooking, heating etc, the more they realise FF are unnecessary.
Why do the LNP want to trash our advantage? It should be obvious by now they are owned by FF industry. They’re doing as instructed.
And just on ‘stable coins’, if these were properly regulated (they aren’t at present) you could have:
1 USD StableCoin = $1USD. Perhaps with a guarantee to be exchanged on demand by global consortia.
1 AUD StableCoin = $1AUD . With exchange guaranteed by the RBA.
And so on across other tradeable currencies.
So if these cryptocurrencies have an underlying value just equal to the real currency, why bother?
If you have to ask this question, you have probably missed the FinTech revolution underway.
sprocket_ @ #172 Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – 4:26 pm
Ummm. Define “Ponzi Scheme” 🙁
P1
Ummm. Define “Ponzi Scheme”
Easy. There is always a bigger fool…
sprocket_ @ #178 Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – 4:39 pm
A bigger fool than Snake Chalmers?
Are you sure?
Player Onesays:
Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 4:19 pm
Bizzcan @ #153 Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – 2:36 pm
I am constantly amazed about how many pages of commentary and drama is produced just on someone’s “tone” with little regard to the actual proposed regulations.
And I am amazed at how someone who should have know better than to comment on such things could make such a rookie mistake. Unless … maybe it wasn’t a mistake. Maybe it was just testing the waters on a potential change of government policy on cryptocurrency.
However, there is one very significant obstacle to that …
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/it-s-not-money-bitcoin-has-no-role-in-the-australian-economy-says-bullock-20241114-p5kqhp.html
Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock has poured cold water on cryptocurrency, saying it has no role in the Australian economy or payments system even as bitcoin rallies to new highs on the back of Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election.
Only one of the Treasurer or the RBA can prevail on this. And based on recent performance, it won’t be Snake Chalmers
________________________
I actually have no idea what you are trying to say, the gov has openly announced it is looking at policy changes in terms of financial securities (not money), a framework for which is accessible from ASIC:
https://asic.gov.au/regulatory-resources/find-a-document/consultations/cp-381-updates-to-info-225-digital-assets-financial-products-and-services/
Nothing in the above document suggests some secret plan to replace the Australian dollar with cryptocurrencies, hence why this is being run by ASIC (the securities regulator), not the RBA (the monetary regulator). What it does to is go through a dozen or so scenarios where crypto and blockchain technologies are used, and give a view as to whether it constitutes a regulated assets or not.
Is there a specific conspiracy you wish to share? Or just sharing some scary sounding innuendo?
P1
Snake Chalmers or Liberal Luddites?
No wonder Malcolm Turnbull was drummed out of the PMship.
Bizzcan
P1 slags Labor.
Regardless of the facts.
P1, princessing her anti-Labor routine:
“A bigger fool than Snake Chalmers?
Are you sure?”
______
Take a long look in a mirror.
And just on NFTs and vanity crypto offerings – they are like fine art, or not so fine art.
You pays your money, you takes your risk. Other than some tweaking of existing laws around fraud and consumer protection, these may well be left to the free market.
Where the smaller and bigger fools can play.
Bizzcan @ #180 Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – 4:43 pm
I think you’d better ask both Snake Chalmers and Michele Bullock.
Chalmers is the one who said …
And Bullock is the one who said that crypto has …
Can you reconcile these two? I must admit that I struggle to do so, but then I’m neither a Labor partisan nor an economist. Perhaps such a blatant contradiction doesn’t ring the same alarm bells to them as it does to me.
However, I do know who would win any disagreement between them.
OK so here it is, I know a lot of you have been waiting for them, here are my predictions for 2025
1) No of Labor, LNP and Crossbench MP’s House of Representatives post election 70 ALP / 68 LNP / 12 Cross-benchers – ALP Primary vote 29.3%
2) Prime Minister 31 December 2025 : – Jim Chalmers
3) Federal Opposition Leader 31 December 2025 – Peter Dutton
4) NSW Opposition Leader 31 December 2025 – Mark Speakman
5) Vic Opposition Leader 31 December 2025 – Brad Battin
6) Next three (3) world leaders to lose power in sequential order (not including scheduled (ie Biden) or already resigned) in 2025 – Justin Trudeau, Olaf Scholz, Anthony Albanese
7) In 2025 Vladimir Putin will retire to a pleasant villa in Beijing following a negotiated transfer of power.
8) In 2025 Xi JingPing will do a deal with Donald Trump to avoid tariffs being imposed by the US
9) In 2025 Donald Trump will make lots of outrageous statements but will stay in office with increasing controversy and an approval rating under 50%
10) In 2025 King Charles III will die.
I will be publishing the list of predictions for the Federal election submitted on here , ie ALP/LNP/Crossbencher vote and ALP primary on January 5th.
Player Onesays:
Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 4:59 pm
Bizzcan @ #180 Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – 4:43 pm
Is there a specific conspiracy you wish to share? Or just sharing some scary sounding innuendo?
I think you’d better ask both Snake Chalmers and Michele Bullock.
Chalmers is the one who said …
I think crypto has a role to play, and it’s part of modernising and innovating in our financial system.
And Bullock is the one who said that crypto has …
no role in the Australian economy or payments system.
Can you reconcile these two? I must admit that I struggle to do so, but then I’m neither a Labor partisan nor an economist. Perhaps such a blatant contradiction doesn’t ring the same alarm bells to them as it does to me.
However, I do know who would win any disagreement between them
_______________________
Really easy, the “payment system” and “financial system” are different things.
ASIC is asking if certain forms of blockchain and digital asset related activities should be regulated like stocks and bonds, with the same expectations around record keeping, product disclosure, licencing and responsible lending requirements.
Now you can do some fun things with financial securities, like short selling and securitization. Some uses are even “near-cash”, or are liquid enough as a relatively low risk asset base.
But I don’t see anything in Chalmers statement to suggest that digital currencies will now be accepted at Woolies – that’s a cash and EFTPOS question, which is in the RBA’s purview.
sprocket_ @ #172 Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – 3:26 pm
Chortle
Using one scam (AI) to produce an “objective” description of another (Crypto)!
Lars at 5.01 pm
Do you want to use the next few hours to reconsider Q 7? Putin is much less into retirement than your local “world leader”, Albo. I supposed he is in the G20, which I suggested as a precondition.
I will post some educated guesses later today. Meanwhile, what about adding a LNP primary? That might lead you to reconsider a down-sized cross-bench.
Oh man, one day, Labor’s gonna use AI to produce some political advertising and people on here are going to swing between “What proof do you have it’s AI? That woman could have six fingers. You don’t know.” and “So what? It’s the 21st century. Anyway, it’s actually a better use of campaign resources that allows our volunteers to have more funds available. AI is pro-worker, you hate workers.”
On crypto, people will try to use it, and so I accept there should be regulation to limit the damage that might do. However that does not mean the financial system should be based on it. It should not be.
During this century the dominance of the US dollar in international trade is certain to break down. It now looks unlikely to be a shift from the US dollar to the Chinese Yuan.
We are probably headed towards a multi-polar world. Trade in various regions will be based on the US dollar, Euro, Yuan or possibly others in future.
So this will be less stable and certain than the last half century. But that is inevitable due to the changing balance of financial forces in the world economy. Bitcoin won’t change that.
When you are up to your arse in crocks, drain the Marsh…
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2024/dec/31/mitchell-marsh-form-australia-cricket-test-team-selection
AJM
I thought someone would appreciate the irony
Socrates @ #191 Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – 4:26 pm
It could be a bit like renewable sources of energy. Requires a bit more management infrastructure but if anything is more resistant to shocks.
On a positive note, my brother sent me this link to a Youtube video documentary on the Finnish Housing Policy, Housing First. The idea is that you build enough public housing to house all the homeless people in a city. The evidence is that, when you add up all the saved public and private costs in health, policing, crime, courts and social services, this is actually cheaper than leaving people on the street, where they occupy a huge amount of social service resources.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0jt_6PBnCJE
This program has been going for ten years, survived changes in government, and has largely worked. There are very few people you see living on the street in Finnish cities. Over to you, Albo…
Kyrgios has just taken his comeback singles match to a 3rd and deciding set.
Well DrD Bashar was being welcomed back by the Arab league and rehabilitated only 6 months ago and look what happened.
Dictators are secure until they aren’t secure.
Look forward to seeing ur forecasts.
Bizzcan @ #187 Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – 5:12 pm
And apparently ‘financial systems’ are no longer considered part of the ‘economy or payment systems’.
You should write comedy. You’re a natural!
Nice strawman. Did you weave it yourself, or did some Labor apparatchiks weave it for you?
Socrates,
The Finnish Housing Policy solution to homelessness would work a treat here. But that’s why we won’t see it used by any Australian govt.
As Clare O’Neill said, their policy is to see house prices continue to rise, and they won’t if you take away the demand.
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/labors-clare-oneil-makes-startling-admission-on-housing-policy-as-millions-of-aussies-struggle-to-break-into-the-market/news-story/f56ff8330039c54be3269fe4dda65bc8
“ Kyrgios has just taken his comeback singles match to a 3rd and deciding set.”
A good workout for his comeback.
Win or lose, I hope he comes through unscathed. His injuries have been horrific. Few thought he had the ticker to commit to such an arduous and long rehabilitation program, so if all goes well it will be nice to see his tennis do the talking for a few years yet.