Nine Newspapers yesterday had Resolve Strategic’s quarterly state breakdowns, combined from their past three monthly polls. These aren’t news with respect to the three largest states, results for which are provided with each poll. That leaves fresh results for Western Australia, which show Labor on 30% (up one on last quarter, down from 36.8% at the 2022 election), the Coalition on 37% (up two, up from 34.8%), the Greens on 12% (down four, down from 12.5%) and One Nation 5% (steady, up from 4.0%). and South Australia, which show Labor on 27% (down one on last quarter, down from 34.5% at the election), the Coalition on 34% (down two, down from 35.5%), the Greens on 12% (down two, down from 12.8%) and One Nation on 8% (up two, up from 4.8%). The combined sample for the poll was 4831, with surveying conducted between October 1 and December 8.
Also published on Sunday were familiarity and net likeability results for 34 politicians from the most recent monthly survey. These seem to have elicited rote responses for most of the lower-ranking government ministers, eight of whom scored between between 41% and 55% on name recognition and between minus one and minus five on net likeability. Coalition politicians in the same name recognition range did better, ranging from even to plus seven.
The most instructive results were for those with familiarity scores of 70% and upwards, peaking at 98% for Anthony Albanese (minus 17 on net likeability) and 95% for Peter Dutton (even). Jacinta Price was the most favoured major party politician with 71% familiarity and plus 8 net likeability, though David Pocock and a number of Liberals did only slightly less well with much lower familiarity scores. Labor’s best performer was Penny Wong with 89% familiarity and plus 2 on net likeability. The worst result for a major party politician was Barnaby Joyce with 90% familiarity and minus 22 net likeability.
Jacqui Lambie tops the list, with 80% familiarity and plus 14 net likeability. David Pocock and Zali Steggall’s results were respectively good and mediocre, but otherwise non-major party politicians did poorly, Adam Bandt, Sarah Hanson-Young, Bob Katter and Fatima Payman all landing between minus 11 and minus 17. Worst-rated of all was Lidia Thorpe, whose recent activities have succeeded to the extent of scoring her 73% familiarity, with a net rating of minus 41 presumably demonstrating one point or another.
UPDATE: Further results have been published for age broken down into three cohorts. For 18-to-34, Labor is on 33% (up two from last quarter, steady on what was presumably the pre-election Resolve Strategic poll), the Coalition 27% (up two on both counts), the Greens 23% (down four, down two). For 35-to-54, Labor is on 30% (up two and down four), the Coalition 34% (down two and up two) and the Greens 12% (steady on both counts). For 55-plus, Labor is on 25% (down two and down eight), the Coalition 50% (up three and up four) and the Greens 4% (steady and down one).
C@t
That’s why I’m asking what Chalmers is proposing. Further regulation of the exchanges is fine, probably a good thing. But just because the US is doing something doesn’t mean we should (in fact with trump incoming whatever the US does we should probably do the opposite!)
I don’t want to rush to judgement, but can’t seem to find any substance beyond ‘jim Chalmers said something about crypto ‘
Even that John quiggin article in the graun doesn’t have any specifics, I have a lot of respect for quiggin but in this case he doesn’t seem to have anything beyond generalities to be make
C@tmomma @ #92 Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – 12:36 pm
Christ on a crutch. There is blind partisan loyalty. And then there is C@tmomma.
I’m waiting for c@t and boerwars crypto podcast.
Pageboi says:
Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 12:26 pm
Has anyone heard any real detail on what Jim Chalmers is actually talking about RE crypto?
I can see how blockchain as a technology may have some applications to the financial and related systems, but if he’s seriously suggesting adoption of any actual cryptocurrencies for use by government, or allowing banks and super funds to hold them as assets……. Aukus is bad enough, but any government that willingly gets involved in the crypto scam or gives up its powers of monetary sovereignty is not fit for office.
__________
This is the only sparse detail that I can see – proposed legislation for licensing crypto providers without details as yet: https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/bitcoin-ether-dogecoin-chalmers-says-the-future-may-be-crypto-20241223-p5l0cm.html
Michael Pascoe writes (as ever) an erudite commentary. Provides more background info on crypto lobbying efforts, and names Andrew Charlton as a fan, but no further details on the proposed legislation: https://michaelwest.com.au/crypto-tip-toe-jim-chalmers-a-tad-desperate-bitcoin/
imacca says:
Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 12:28 pm
I think Gina secretly wants to have Trumps babies
*******************************
I think Gina has been having quite enough trouble with the children she already has.
More OC ‘reasoned debate’ gold (as in gold plated bullshit):
“By 2040 we will be using more gas than we are now to meet the 10% of electricity that can’t be provided by wind and solar, while the rest of the developed world is meeting this with SMR.”
___
We know already that renewables will be able to provide 100% of electricity generation required for at least 90% of the time in Australian conditions. Probably much closer to 100% than even that (given that dunkleflaute events in Australia are measured in hours, not days and even weeks like they are in the Northern hemisphere like the countries in Europe that get much of their renewable generation from wind along the coasts of the Baltic and North Sea AND – obviously – have little sunlight in winter when coincidentally energy demands are at their peak).
However, even assuming a ‘10%’ gap – we are talking about periods of time when the combination of various renewable generation and firming technology cannot bridge the gap. Newsflash: nuclear is a completely shit house technology for bridging the firming gap. In fact if one has to switch nuclear on and off the costs are astronomical. It is completely unviable if it runs at less than 90% capacity. … and to repeat: that is why the LNP are fudging the energy requirement figures for the mid-century AND planning on suppressing the renewables rollout: they need their wunderwaffe nuclear to be running at close to 100% capacity.
Go back to watching Blinky memes mate. In the meantime stop trailing your coat for Dutton and the LNP’s latest marketing scam. It is completely an illegitimate policy proposal.
goll says Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 11:25 am
I still think long haul flights will use carbon based fuels, albeit biofuels that are carbon neutral. However, I heard mention that shipping may go electric using containerised batteries. That’s an interesting idea.
Rex Douglas says:
Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 12:43 pm
Grifters grift…
________
And don’t we know it, Rex. Our very own $3 million plus superannuation and LIV golf loving online persona of high integrity 🙂
Pageboi,
As it is the holiday period I’m of the opinion that the Treasurer has tasked the Treasury with exploring the issue before he says anything definitive. Also, that he may well be waiting to see exactly what Trump decides to do, which is basically to leave the crypto market unregulated, but also according to a video I saw of a Crypto conference this year where a leading proponent of Crypto in the Republican Party spoke about a Bill they have ready to go which will, iirc, allow crypto to be a formally denominated currency of the American government to become a reality. So he would no doubt get Treasury to analyse it and report back to him with recommendations about what Australia should do.
The usual suspects are getting very (overly) excited about some vague references to crypto by the treasurer, predicting doom and gloom based off effectively no details. Quiggin’s article is as baseless and hysterical as the pharmacy lobby were 6 months ago.
What we do know is the gov is looking to bring licencing and regulations to a currently lawless regime:
https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/jim-chalmers-2022/media-releases/fostering-innovative-safe-and-secure-digital-asset
“Feedback from ASIC’s consultation will help inform exposure draft legislation for the Government’s ‘digital asset platform’ and ‘payment stablecoin’ reforms, which will be released in 2025.
This legislation will create a licencing regime for businesses offering customers digital assets and holding them for Australians, and clarify the appropriate regulatory framework for stablecoins.”
And if you still prefer cash, that is being retained:
https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/stephen-jones-2022/media-releases/next-steps-ensuring-future-cash
Rex Douglassays:
Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 12:39 pm
The finishing touches being made to the Westgate tunnel project in Melbourne’s west the next few months. Should make a huge difference for commuters when opened next yr.
_____________________
Save a whopping 8 minutes each way and you will have to pay tolls.
I think I will stick with the bridge for my rare visits.
I also love the view from up there.
Oakeshott Country says Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 10:34 am
I really recommend this video by Rosemary Barnes https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_47LWFAG6g where she answer the question of whether Australia needs nuclear. Note, she’s looking at this from an engineering and economics perspective.
Rainman says:
Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 12:52 pm
imacca says:
Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 12:28 pm
I think Gina secretly wants to have Trumps babies
*******************************
I think Gina has been having quite enough trouble with the children she already has.
________
I laughed out loud at this 🙂
goll says Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 12:40 pm
Don’t the NIMBYs in the Greens in Tasmania tend to support wind in principle, but oppose it on the ground (or ocean)?
More OC ‘reasoned debate’ gold (as in gold plated bullshit)
Yep. Very much the Old Man, 1970s headspace thinking of the Coalition.
bcsays:
Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 1:01 pm
goll says Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 12:40 pm
Wind energy in and around Tasmania would seem to be the untapped source of renewable energy.
Maybe a change of state government in Tasmania is needed.
Don’t the NIMBYs in the Greens in Tasmania tend to support wind in principle, but oppose it on the ground (or ocean)?
_______________________
If Tasmania feels it doesn’t need more (or produce more) electricity, then if doesn’t need any more of our GST too.
Joe Hockey was wrong to state that Indigenous Australians have a “subsided lifestyle” – that label belongs to Tassie. Evey bass strait island should be covered with wind farms asap, regardless of what that climate vandal Bob Brown says.
bc @ #113 Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – 1:01 pm
Yep, Bob Brown doesn’t want to see it from his backyard. Plus. Birds. Which hasn’t happened elsewhere in the world though.
Bizzcan @ #109 Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – 12:58 pm
Thanks, Bizzcan. 🙂
“This legislation will create a licencing regime for businesses offering customers digital assets and holding them for Australians, and clarify the appropriate regulatory framework for stablecoins.””
Sounds a bit like adults in charge doing adults in govt kind of things.
Not really anything to get worked up about for the moment, and given the blind enthusiasm of Trumps circle for crypto probably appropriate to start working up a policy of our own rather than just getting dragged along by whatever may or may not happen in the USA.
As said upthread, ……. grifters will grift and with the incoming POTUS being the Grifter in Chief that will take off big time. And then you have the influence of unstable “quirky” people like Elon Muppet.
C@tmommasays:
Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 10:29 am
_____________________
Doing more than me.
Normally get the picnic blanket out and go down to Eastern Beach to watch the 9.30 fireworks on Corio Bay.
Bikkies, hommus, cheese and cabana.
Then watch the ABC TV coverage from about 10.30 till 12.30.
Am always awake at midnight.
Will get to Sydney harbour one day, but not keen on the whole getting a good vantage point early and spending the whole day there waiting.
As predicted pollbludger endorses crypto. Hilarious!
I have said before I think Crypto is a scam. Best case it is pure speculation; worst case it is a pyramid scheme. There is no inherent value to extract.
If Chalmers wants to regulate it then that may be OK. But for a government that has not focused on economic reform it is a very low priority.
Taylormade @ #120 Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – 1:11 pm
I’ll be watching the 9pm Gossie fireworks from my friend’s house’s elevated position. I’m not keen on going down to the city to watch the fireworks either. The best option for watching the fireworks in Sydney is to go out on one of the boats who sell spots on board on the night.
Soc
I don’t think there is any doubt that it is a Ponzi and if Trump believes the economy can be based on Crypto, we are in for a very exciting time indeed.
Socratessays:
Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 1:21 pm
I have said before I think Crypto is a scam. Best case it is pure speculation; worst case it is a pyramid scheme. There is no inherent value to extract.
If Chalmers wants to regulate it then that may be OK. But for a government that has not focused on economic reform it is a very low priority.
_______________________
Yes, the federal government’s 100,000+ public servants and 20+ ministries should drop everything and tackle every specific policy sequentially.
Lars Von Trier @ #121 Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – 1:15 pm
No. Being realistic about crypto is what it is. What is hilarious though is your old-fashioned take on it. It’s on the Trump train and it’s left the station and you missed it.
I have a friend in America who made over $500000 mining crypto in the last 6 months. He has trained a bot to do it and he just oversees it. There’s no way your antediluvian take on crypto will have any effect on these people. There or here. Hence why your politically opportunistic take on it is simply laughable.
So, Elon is campaigning for the neo-nazi AfD in Germany.
Yes, yes it’s all going so well…
Few of my childhood friends lost their fathers on the Westgate disaster.
We have some grainy footage of the disaster. Almost lost & only found when we found ABC metal film cases, had the film transferred to dvd
Fargo61 @ #80 Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – 11:16 am
Tasmania’s total generation capacity is well over 2,000MW. What you have quoted is the current state of generation and consumption, which is driven by prices offered by differnet generators across the electricity market. A quick look at the AEMO Dashboard https://www.aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/data-nem/data-dashboard-nemindicates that solar is probably going gangbusters at the moment (to the extent that wholesale prices are actually negative in all states except TAS), so TAS is buying in cheap power rather than running all it’s own hydro.
Dee
Is it possible to upload it to YouTube ?
https://www.aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/data-nem/data-dashboard-nem might work better
Thanks Griff,
Some of the quotes in that Pascoe article attributed to Chalmers are a bit of a worry. I’ve got no problem with further regulation of the sector, but spruiking ‘great opportunities’ and otherwise talking up crypto should be beneath our treasurer. It does reduce my opinion of him a bit, and it does sound like Labor pandering to wealthy vested interests yet again, but best to reserve judgement until we see actual regulations or legislation
I’m personally still sceptical that parly will sit again before the election so I doubt much will come of this
The best thing to do about crypto is to make it go away.
ajmsays:
indicates that solar is probably going gangbusters at the moment (to the extent that wholesale prices are actually negative in all states except TAS), so TAS is buying in cheap power rather than running all it’s own hydro.
___
How come the price is so expensive atm in Tas compared to Vic?
Oakeshott Country @ #124 Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – 12:28 pm
I read Chalmers as talking about putting regulations around crypto to try to ensure that when it does crash (which is inevitable as there is no inherent value in it) that crash is walled off as far as possible form the rest of the economy.
There is also a legitimate use for the blockchain technology, although enthusiasm for this seems to have waned a bit as it doesn’t seem to provide significant advantages over current ways of recording economic transactions. Central Banks (including ours) have been investigating this.
For an interesting read, have a look at ASIC’s discussion paper on crypto.
https://asic.gov.au/regulatory-resources/find-a-document/consultations/cp-381-updates-to-info-225-digital-assets-financial-products-and-services/
It suggests their thinking is that things like AUD denominated “stablecoins” are more likely to be treated as regulated assets, while “meme coins” will be treated more like memorabilia and not as a legitimate financial instruments.
The nem says Tasmania is using 80% hyrdo and 20% wind. No solar.
Pageboi says:
Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 1:44 pm
Thanks Griff,
Some of the quotes in that Pascoe article attributed to Chalmers are a bit of a worry. I’ve got no problem with further regulation of the sector, but spruiking ‘great opportunities’ and otherwise talking up crypto should be beneath our treasurer. It does reduce my opinion of him a bit, and it does sound like Labor pandering to wealthy vested interests yet again, but best to reserve judgement until we see actual regulations or legislation
I’m personally still sceptical that parly will sit again before the election so I doubt much will come of this
___________
Yep. That’s my take as well. The tone struck Chalmers is a little too positive. But the proposed regulation, details pending, appears to be a reasonable step.
ABC news bulletins for major events are mostly available on you tube
Here’s the Westgate disaster
https://youtu.be/UR8eYevYcg8?si=byp_btTdeKCF4n5x
dave @ #134 Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – 12:46 pm
The market actually pays some forms of generation (eg coal) to go away when renewables are going gangbusters (hence negative prices at imes). Prices vary widely over a 24 hour period becasue of changing output from solar, wind, hydro, coal and gas and changing demand due to time of day etc.
Not the place here to post an exposition of how the national Energy Market works (fortunately). This may help: https://www.energycouncil.com.au/media/12973/national-electricity-market.pdf
Tasmania 100% renewable power for 4 years now, under Liberal govts.
While we are on the topic of three-eyed fish…
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/dec/30/donald-trump-elon-musk-genetics-science-right
ajm
Thank you for the links.
dave @ #137 Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – 12:50 pm
They are using solar and wind (at last to some extent) by imporitng it from SA and VIC, which is cheaper at the moment than their own hydro.
“The island state is now looking at doubling its renewables generation to a world-leading target of 200% of its current needs by 2040. “
I think Andrew_Earlwood summed is up best. In fact if there is a argument to use Nuclear reactors to go after gas, Dutton has done the industry a big disservice, by pretending they are in anyway relevant to the transition of the first 90%.
Nuclear reactors have to be price competitive against storage, and it can be slotted into what is becoming a very dynamic system.
When snowy ii was started it made sense as battery storage was still expansive. As the cost of battery storage has come down snowy two makes less sense. It is a project that would not be started in 2024.
I doubt Nuclear will ever makes sense, but it is a debate for when SNR become a possibility, not something that is being developed.
The possibility SNR may exist one day is not a reason to keep coal fired stations running well past their use by date, not a reason to stop dealing with the first 90% of the problem.
Between AUKUS and nuclear power stations the country will be bankrupt.
Tasmania can only use their water once. They have already got into trouble laving low dams and no BASS link. I doubt they will risk it again until the second cable is installed.
And as not damming the Franklin saved a nice beach and little else, I think it was a mistake not to do so. However, wind and solar and batteries is also removing the advantage of hydro dams. The Franklin’s time has past.
Damming of the Franklin makes mores sense than a Nuclear reactor, but I doubt either will ever happen.
Rex
I’m flat out using my android phone & we no longer have a computer.
LoL
Socrates @ #122 Tuesday, December 31st, 2024 – 1:21 pm
Michael West sums it up well …
https://michaelwest.com.au/crypto-tip-toe-jim-chalmers-a-tad-desperate-bitcoin/
I would say Snake Chalmers is suffering “relevance deprivation” rather than “desperation”. but it’s still a fair summary.