As well as test cricket, Boxing Day customarily brings Newspoll’s quarterly aggregated breakdowns in The Australian, this one combining 3775 responses over three polls from October 7 to December 6. The state results have it at 50-50 in New South Wales, after the Coalition led 51-49 last time, suggesting a Coalition swing of around 1.5% compared with the 2022 election; 50-50 in Victoria after Labor led 52-48 last time, a Coalition swing of around 5%; a Coalition lead of 53-47 in Queensland, in from 54-48, a Labor swing of around 1%; a Labor lead of 54-46 in Western Australia, out from 52-48 last time, a Coalition swing of around 1%; and Labor leading 53-47 in South Australia, in from 54-46 last time, a Coalition swing of around 1%. The gender gap disappears, with 50-50 results for both men and women, compared with 51-49 to the Coalition among men and 52-48 to Labor among women last time. A 54-46 lead to Labor last time in the $50,000 to $99,000 income bracket becomes 50-50 this time, while a 54-46 lead to the Coalition among those on over $150,000 reduces to 51-49.
If you don’t like Dutton’s policies, don’t vote for him.
goll at 8:27 pm
Bowen is having considerable success considering the “flat earthers”, the coal lobby, the “Ted” types and the “anyone but Labor brigade.
The energy revolution is unstoppable at this point in time.
The only thing left to be completed is the Liberals and National Parties to claim ownership of the energy revolution.
The next election is all about energy generation with the Teals, Greens and Labor leading the way, showing confidence and supporting probably the most innovative and visionary changes known to history buffs.
——————-
I like the idea behind this, though I’m not entirely sold on it being accurate (the election’s issue being energy generation, I mean particularly).
The reason I say that is twofold.
First, I’m not sure enough voters really care that much about energy policy itself that it’ll trump matters like your basic cost of living concerns (though there may be a needle to be threaded regarding the interaction between the two by a good enough politician).
But secondly, I’ve long had an uneasy feeling that one of the most accurate things Tony Abbott ever said was something in his concession speech in 2019 – to the effect that “we struggle in arguing energy / climate policy when it’s a moral issue, but we do very well when it’s an economic issue”. I think there’s something to this, and it’s why it surprises me still that Dutton is going bigger target with the nuclear policy, because it doesn’t make economic sense. Will enough voters really care such that it’ll make a difference? I suppose we’ll see soon enough.
People must be desperate and have nothing if they’re bringing up things politicians said in 2019. 😐
C@tmomma at 8:48 pm
People must be desperate and have nothing if they’re bringing up things politicians said in 2019.
—————
Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it, c@t.
Though I can well understand why you’d not want anyone to reflect on things people said in 2019 – I reckon your views about the current Labor leadership from back then might be hard to reconcile with your current position.
Well the tv series Earth Abides was a disappointing and insipid adaptation of a classic book. You have to wonder why the rights were acquired when the outcome was so at odds with the source material.
goll’s remark at 8.27 about the liberals claiming credit for the energy revolution is sadly absolutely spot on. A decade ago climate change didn’t exist for them, in 2019 they were screechingly protecting Aussies’ right to burn as much diesel as they wanted on the weekend. Morrison tried to pretend they had everything under control before he was booted
The point being that they were allowed to get away with all this. It’ll happen again.
Stinker,
There’s lots to comment on in your past post.
Enough of the electorate, mostly from the Teals, the Greens, and Labor are intent on making energy an election issue.
The last election was an indication of this trend.
You’re correct ” not enough voters” care but are adapting very quickly.
The COL narrative is ingrained but will it change a enough voters for the LNP to gain the ascendancy?
Tony Abbott never said any thing of significance and the mass of the electorate believe “moral” to be a new computer game.
They don’t have a clue and don’t want to have a clue.
Dutton’s “light bulb” moment with nuclear will not bother the rusted on, the Sky brigade, religious right and many others. They won’t change their vote.
In fact this election will be about the cohort that actually want to know what’s happening.
The majority of the electorate have no idea of the Hubble Constant not the Pillars of Creation (James Webb).
The majority of the electorate are at the mercy of the MSM in all its various guises.
Labor is often criticized for not “selling their vision”.
How do you sell “Ford memorabilia” to “Holden Devotees” made more difficult that ICE engines are heading to the museums.
Labor’s advantage with the Energy Revolution is that the LNP are appealing to a diminishing cohort of technological illiterate, and are prepared to back their belief in the enormity of the Energy Revolution.
I don’t ever underestimate the “idiot” co-efficient, all too rampant in the lucky country.
Australia is well placed to benefit from the Energy Revolution (as is often Australia’s good luck)
Some things we do very badly, drinking water and the river systems come to mind as does the wholesale destruction of native forests and fisheries.
Even the disengaged don’t take Dutton seriously. Dutton is probably a less impressive version of Abbott.
I believe enough voters care and the same voters will make a mockery of the “gin jockey’s” have a guess at the election result.
Every child wins a prize!
Stinker we will find out soon enough however the Energy Revolution will continue to evolve exponentially.
It’s a great time to be young!
Cricket’s commentary has become as pedestrian as tennis’s.
goll at 9:33 pm
Some interesting points, goll. To be totally frank, I’m not convinced climate change has ever been a genuinely significant election issue other than in 2007 and 2013. I suppose it will remain to be seen if it is this time around.
Can I just add one other thing? I’m not sure if you and I have different understandings of what the term “gin jockey” means. But I’m unable to understand it in the context of this paragraph:
“I believe enough voters care and the same voters will make a mockery of the “gin jockey’s” have a guest at the election result.
Every child wins a prize!”
More to the point, I’d just add that it’s probably not a term I’d use going forward, if I were you. I thought it had well and truly fallen out of favour, and I actually winced in reading it in your post.
Stinker @ #1102 Monday, December 30th, 2024 – 9:01 pm
*yawn*
I’m sorry that I’m not intimidated by your overweening ‘logic’, Stinker and I have to say that if you used that sort of argument in a debate, instead of actually constructing a firm scaffold upon which to base your opinion of someone, which was contemporaneous, then I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that you would lose that debate.
Anyway, if one must take what you are proposing seriously, how can you reconcile Chris Bowen saying something about a Housing policy in 2019, when Labor were campaigning under a different leader from Opposition, to something he’s saying today as Energy Minister in government? Apples and oranges much?
Though I have to say that, even if I take your proposition at least half seriously, I guess you could say that Chris would agree now, simply, that if you don’t like the government’s Energy policies, you don’t have to vote for them. A statement of the bleeding obvious I would have thought, and an uncontroversial one at that.
And yes, I happen to agree with the government’s Energy policies because they are the only party of government who has a rational Energy policy. You can disagree around the edges but essentially, in our OPV system, you vote for Labor & Renewables + Pumped Hydro + Gas Firming for as long as it’s needed, or you vote for the Coalition & Coal&GasKeeper + a Nuclear unicorn.
So, do you have a problem with that assessment?
Mavis @ #1106 Monday, December 30th, 2024 – 9:35 pm
To tell you the truth, Mavis, I hope Nick Kyriogos becomes a commentator sooner rather than later. Though I would like to see him end his career on a high before he bows out for good.
Still touch and go for a rate cut in Feb but it’s looking more rather than less likely at least now:
https://www.thenewdaily.com.au/finance/2024/12/28/rba-says-rate-cuts-coming
C@tmomma at 9:48 pm
*yawn*
I’m sorry that I’m not intimidated by your overweening ‘logic’, Stinker and I have to say that if you used that sort of argument in a debate, instead of actually constructing a firm scaffold upon which to base your opinion of someone, which was contemporaneous, then I don’t think it’s a stretch to say that you would lose that debate.
Anyway, if one must take what you are proposing seriously, how can you reconcile Chris Bowen saying something about a Housing policy in 2019, when Labor were campaigning under a different leader from Opposition, to something he’s saying today as Energy Minister in government? Apples and oranges much?
Though I have to say that, even if I take your proposition at least half seriously, I guess you could say that Chris would agree now, simply, that if you don’t like the government’s Energy policies, you don’t have to vote for them. A statement of the bleeding obvious I would have thought, and an uncontroversial one at that.
And yes, I happen to agree with the government’s Energy policies because they are the only party of government who has a rational Energy policy. You can disagree around the edges but essentially, in our OPV system, you vote for Labor & Renewables + Pumped Hydro + Gas Firming for as long as it’s needed, or you vote for the Coalition & Coal&GasKeeper + a Nuclear unicorn.
So, do you have a problem with that assessment?
——————-
TLDR: Don’t take anything I say as being my actual views because I will always fall into the party line (the unsaid part being yes, c@t thought Albo was unsuitable to being leader).
If you actually bothered to read my original post properly, you’ll note that I’ve not made reference to anything Bowen has said in recent times. I was comparing goll’s “if you really think you need to change the government to change the country then you’d better vote for someone else” to Bowen’s silly statement in 2019. Of course, Bowen was right in what he said. Unfortunately, apparently many also took his advice and we ended up with another Morrison term.
Steve777 @ #1093 Monday, December 30th, 2024 – 8:10 pm
If you vote for the ColesWorth candidates, you should expect to get a ColesWorth government.
I think we should all aim a little higher than that, don’t you?
Stinker @ #1084 Monday, December 30th, 2024 – 7:41 pm
He was ahead of his time. If you want better policies than either of the ColesWorth factions are currently offering, why would you give either of them your first preference?
Your vote is your voice. Use it or lose it.
In 1978, Jimmy Carter brokered the Camp David peace accords between Israel and Egypt.
In 2006, he wrote a book ‘Palestine: Peace Not Apartheid’. He was widely denounced and labeled an antisemite. He defended using the word apartheid to describe Israel, saying:
“The word is the most accurate available to describe Palestine. Apartheid is when two different people live in the same land, and they are forcibly segregated, and one dominates or persecutes the other. That’s what’s happening in Palestine: so the word is very, very accurate.”
This article in the Guardian is an interesting read.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/dec/30/jimmy-carter-israel-apartheid-palestinians
Player One,
I think that the point which you were invited to respond to earlier was not whether you would give your first preference to a “ColesWorth” candidate, but rather the order in which you would rank said candidates. You seemed to suggest that your ranking would rest upon the quality of the candidates, which implies that their respective party policies would play no part in your decision. Or am I misreading you?
Stinker @ #1111 Monday, December 30th, 2024 – 9:56 pm
TLDR: Don’t take anything I say as being my actual views because I will always fall into the party line (the unsaid part being yes, c@t thought Albo was unsuitable to being leader).
If you actually bothered to read my original post properly, you’ll note that I’ve not made reference to anything Bowen has said in recent times. I was comparing goll’s “if you really think you need to change the government to change the country then you’d better vote for someone else” to Bowen’s silly statement in 2019. Of course, Bowen was right in what he said. Unfortunately, apparently many also took his advice and we ended up with another Morrison term.
Okay, that being said, it’s absolutely unjustified to say that I ‘always fall into the party line’. As a Labor Party member I follow the Labor Party policy platform. However, I don’t have to agree with all of it and I often don’t agree with things that the government has done in trying to implement it. Just one example is the NACC. A policy which was badly implemented, mainly the secrecy provisions, which came about due to wanting to get bipartisan agreement with the Coalition for it, and they never do anything with Labor in good faith, so it ended up being an ass of a thing.
I could go on with other things where I have had a disagreement with Labor, but I’m going to bed now, so maybe tomorrow if you really want to know. 🙂
The Age 30/12
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has ordered the Victorian Labor Party to take down a social media post mocking the marriage of Peter Dutton and his wife Kirilly, hours after the image was posted online.
_____________________
What were they thinking.
Heads should roll.
Where’s the respect for women.
Stinker,
My mistake completely!
My context is definitely not what you’re referring to!
The irony with me and that mistake has caused immense laughter in my family.
The whole “mob” are not letting me forget about it!
C@tmomma at 10.27pm
I could go on with other things where I have had a disagreement with Labor, but I’m going to bed now, so maybe tomorrow if you really want to know.
——————
I do – I shall wait with bated breath.
Herald Sun 30/12
Dutton issued a statement on Monday night saying his campaign would not target family members such as the Prime Minister’s fiancee, Jodie Haydon.
“I can assure you: the Liberal Party I lead will not be targeting Jodie Haydon,” he said in a statement.
“I respect and like Jodie but she is not an elected official and will not be the subject of humiliation, attack ads or public smear by the Liberal Party.
“I would ask the PM to equally respect my wife.”
_____________________
Dutton 1
Vic ALP 0
Taylormadesays:
Monday, December 30, 2024 at 10:27 pm
The Age 30/12
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has ordered the Victorian Labor Party to take down a social media post mocking the marriage of Peter Dutton and his wife Kirilly, hours after the image was posted online.
________________________________
Was a bit stupid but hardly a big deal.
davesays:
Monday, December 30, 2024 at 10:33 pm
Taylormadesays:
Monday, December 30, 2024 at 10:27 pm
Was a bit stupid but hardly a big deal.
_____________________
Shows how desperate they are.
Gutter politics.
Dave, I agree not a huge deal, but someone at Vic ALP HQ should be packing up their desk.
I want to hear from Gallagher – The Minister for Women.
Would love to know whether she thinks it’s a big deal or not.
I wonder what Tony Abbott, former Minister for Women thinks about it.
Taylor made – I’d humbly suggest that the media have nothing else to get excited about at this time of year. This will be forgotten by everyone by the end of the week, and the average voter wouldn’t have ever heard of it.
Hugoaugogosays:
Monday, December 30, 2024 at 10:49 pm
_____________________
The standard you walk past is the standard you accept.
Taylormadesays:
Monday, December 30, 2024 at 10:45 pm
[I want to hear from Gallagher – The Minister for Women.
Would love to know whether she thinks it’s a big deal or not.]
I’m not sure you’ll create a outrage with this one T’made.
Remember the gaffe about rising sea levels and Pacific islands, by the three stooges, Moe , Larry and Curly.
No one else does either.
arraitch says:
Monday, December 30, 2024 at 10:22 pm
Player One,
I think that the point which you were invited to respond to earlier was not whether you would give your first preference to a “ColesWorth” candidate, but rather the order in which you would rank said candidates. You seemed to suggest that your ranking would rest upon the quality of the candidates, which implies that their respective party policies would play no part in your decision. Or am I misreading you?
__________
I don’t recall posts from you before, so a jolly good welcome!
And secondly, ‘Beware! Hic sunt dracones.’
Taylormade says:
Monday, December 30, 2024 at 11:04 pm
Hugoaugogosays:
Monday, December 30, 2024 at 10:49 pm
_____________________
The standard you walk past is the standard you accept.
_________
The level of irony is perfect for those on holidays. Otherwise it might be too much for Monday night 🙂
Griff says Monday, December 30, 2024 at 11:37 pm
You wouldn’t want a typo in that.
I’m not sure if anyone posted this earlier.
“Australia: An introduction to the NEM with Alex Leemon (Gridcog)”: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fV_5Kbs7Quc
bc
There probably was!
bcsays:
Tuesday, December 31, 2024 at 12:02 am
[I’m not sure if anyone posted this earlier].
“Australia: An introduction to the NEM with Alex Leemon (Gridcog)”: https://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=fV_5Kbs7Quc
Yes frednk did, but well worth another listen.
Griff says on Monday, December 30, 2024 at 11:37 pm:
I don’t recall posts from you before, so a jolly good welcome!
And secondly, ‘Beware! Hic sunt dracones.’
___________________
Not quite my first post, but I’m still well in the single figures. Either way, ta muchly for both jolly good welcomes and bewarings!
Rainman at 10.17 pm
The most significant person who applied the concept of apartheid to Israel was then PM Yitzhak Rabin on September 13 1993 during a dinner with Clinton following his handshake with Arafat earlier that day.
Rabin knew Israeli politics better than anybody else. He said that if the Oslo Accords failed, principally because of an unwillingness in Israel to accept a Palestinian state, the result would be like apartheid.
Rabin was assassinated 26 months later by a Zionist fanatic incited by Netanyahu. The rest is history.
Lars
The last ten federal elections the Tories minus the ten teal/green seats have averaged 67.8 seats the median has been 68.5.
First term governments always cop a swing because of the reversion to the mean. across the last ten elections the three first term governments have had net losses of 14, 14 and 11 seats.
I don’t think this government is popular enough to be an outlier and avoid the fate of Howard, Gillard and Turnbull. They will end up with a net loss of 13 seats and end up on 65.
Tories return to their par of 68 crossbench stays at 18 which would be Labor minority but a few hundred votes in three or four seats could be enough for Coalition minority so worth checking out what price they are giving us on that.
New thread.
The next election is all now dependent on the energy revolution and the Teals, perhaps the Greens and even the independent independents in a worse case scenario.
Energy change is tied in and will happen, with the only unknown “how quickly”.
The Teals, the Greens and even the independents will wield enormous political power after the next election and are extrinsiclly linked to the pace of the movement towards a new energy/political algorithm.
It’s very hard to imagine that the LNP would be able to work calmly with any of the group of interlopers.
Nuclear Energy would be the first casualty of any change.
Clearly the LNP needs a decisive increase in seat numbers to form government and promote their denialist ambitions.
The Teals would seem to present by far the largest obstacle for the LNP to achieve electoral success.
The polling does favour some LNP election success. The unknown of course is the Teals, maintaining their electoral achievements or possibly having more success, rendering the LNP a gallant “what could have been”.
Can the Greens maintain their Senate position and hold the lower house seats?
The Greens have seemingly given some thought to their apparent electoral weakness by becoming more accommodating towards the end of 2024.
Then there’s the economy, both domestic and international, and the ever present geo-political flash points.
Perhaps the LNP identifies its biggest two hurdles in winning office and at this late stage ejects both Dutton and the Nuclear nonsense!
They will in all likelihood be in a better place.
Australia certainly would be.
And of course Mr Albanese may emerge from the smoke of political warfare and provide Labor and Australia with the much needed second term. ( in one form or another)
In the meantime, the negroni spritz (gin heavy) devotee will promote its own relevance with the fabled guessing competition.
The general public will be rewarded with the devotees greatness and clairvoyant superiority whatever the electoral result.
Congratulations to the winner in advance!
Happy New Year’s Eve everyone!
Wow, we’re almost done with the first quarter century of the 21st century. I never thought I’d be here this long, only because it seemed so far away in 2000 and you never know what can happen, but here we are!
I get the feeling 2025 will be wild! 😉
A happy and healthy 2025, Bludgers!
Steve Bannon escalated the MAGA civil war Monday by calling for ‘reparations’ for Americans for losing out to immigrants on H-1B visas–who should themselves, he said, be deported.
Bannon repeatedly railed against the program—and billionaire Elon Musk, who backs the visas—on Monday’s War Room, asking guests including conspiracy theorist Laura Loomer and former-Democrat-turned-MAGA-backer Allison Huynh whether Musk understood the visas were a “scam.”
“The workers that are here on H-1B visas should be deported at the same time we’re deporting the 15 million illegal aliens Biden brought across the border to suppress wages to low-income workers,” Bannon said. “American workers should be hired immediately to fill those gaps, and then we should start the discussions on reparations, on what they knowingly did to American tech workers.”
https://www.thedailybeast.com/steve-bannon-escalates-maga-civil-war-with-call-for-reparations-over-h-1b-visas/
arraitch @ #1117 Monday, December 30th, 2024 – 10:22 pm
It is not true to say that party policies play “no” part. But both ColesWorth parties are either weak on policy or have bad policies in areas that I think are most significant – so which of their candidates would be a better local member is a more important criteria.
I understand why “rusted on” partisans find that difficult to comprehend. But many Australians are now looking past the the political brand names and finding the actual products they are being sold are inferior.
Like me, many are looking for better value for their voting dollar. Which is pretty much all that the voters seem to represent to the ColesWorth parties these days – something which Labor’s cynical attempt at campaign funding changes made abundantly clear.
Hi William,
What was the national 2PP for the Newspoll quarterly breakdown? Is it the case that the last Newspoll in early December was not included in the analysis?
Cheers
In his annual report for ’24, Chief Justice Roberts devotes a large part of it to highlighting the threats to judges, their staff & families. While he doesn’t identify the chief culprit by name, it’s clear he has Trump in mind for whipping up a veritable storm of hate, threats of violence & dangerous rhetoric against the judiciary. But what Roberts fails to mention is that the MAGA Supreme Court, via several very controversial decisions (eg, Dobbs & the presidential immunity case), coupled with unprecedented partisanship & corruption of the MAGA associate justices (Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch & Kavanagh) helped to create the Trump leviathan. He’s their baby now.
https://www.supremecourt.gov/publicinfo/year-end/2024year-endreport.pdf
I found the premature death of Carter very moving. I’ve been thinking about how Trump’s death will be received.