The Australian Electoral Commission has published its post-redistribution margins for New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia, holding off for the time being on the Northern Territory as the redistribution there has not been finalised. This involves two sets of numbers: two-party preferred, which boil the issue down to Labor-versus-Coalition without regard to whether Greens or independents may have been in the mix, and two-candidate preferred, which tackles the sometimes knotty issue of estimating new margins between the parties and independents who actually made the final count at the last election.
The AEC’s report repeatedly observes that its numbers “may differ to the calculations of people external to the AEC”, by which they principally mean Antony Green but also me and Ben Raue at The Tally Room. Links to an extensive accounting of my own estimated margins were provided in an earlier post, which also offered a broad overview of the principles involved in making the calculations. I’m pleased to say my two-party margins are similar to the AEC’s: within 0.2% in 80 seats out of 100, and out by more than 0.5% only in the cases of Hume and Hasluck.
Now more than ever though, two-candidate preferred is a vexed question particularly where independents are involved, as they will not have been on the ballot paper in the parts of the electorate that have been added in the redistribution. Antony, Ben and I are all free to exercise common sense in treating the teals as a collective unit, which at least solves the problem in the cases of Warringah and Mackellar. Not only does the AEC feel it does not have the liberty to make such judgements, but Ben Raue also relates that its system is not designed to combine Labor-versus-Greens results from different electorates, which can readily be used to calculate fresh margins for Wills and Cooper — though not for Melbourne, which absorbs territory from Higgins and Macnamara, both of which had Labor-versus-Liberal two-candidate counts.
Ben Raue identifies the following electorates as ones in which mismatched two-candidate preferred counts must be combined from different parts of the electorate as redrawn by the redistributions (not counting those where the problem can be solved by falling back on two-party preferred, as can always be done where the seat is a “classic” Labor-versus-Coalition contest). These are Bradfield, Fowler, Grayndler, Mackellar, Sydney, Warringah and Wentworth in New South Wales, and Cooper, Goldstein, Kooyong, Melbourne, Nicholls, Wannon and Wills in Victoria. For reasons just explained, people external to the AEC are painlessly able to finesse the issue in Mackellar, Warringah, Bradfield, Cooper and Wills, which undoubtedly makes the non-AEC calculations more instructive in these cases. That leaves nine seats where varying degrees of creativity are required. In Labor-versus-Greens contests, this is a simple matter of estimating preference flows. But estimating support levels for independents in areas where they didn’t run last time is a very considerable challenge.
The differences in the various approaches taken are outlined at length in Antony Green’s post on the subject:
I base my estimates on a comparison of of House and Senate votes. Ben Raue uses an estimate based on the difference between two-party and two-candidate preferred results. William Bowe has not tried to adjust primary votes but rather allocates zero votes to the Independent and applies preference flows on accumulated primaries.
The chief virtue of my own method is the elegance involved in not requiring any data external to how people actually voted for the lower house of 2022, but it comes at the very substantial cost of crediting independents with very small vote shares in the newly added parts of their seats. However, the AEC’s approach is in this respect worse, as it apparently credits the independents with no votes in these areas at all (though I don’t see how that can be the case in Kooyong, where my own estimate for Monique Ryan is lower than the AEC’s). Antony Green’s and Ben Raue’s methods are of more practical value in addressing the task at hand, which is estimating how big the swing will need to be for the seat to change hands. Whether or not this is happening can be determined on election night by comparing the booths that have reported their results with the equivalent results from the previous election.
A few other bits and pieces from the last week or so:
• A second Victorian state by-election looms to go with the one to be held on February 8 in Prahran after Tim Pallas announced his resignation as Treasurer and member for Werribee, which he held in 2022 on a margin of 10.5%. The Age reports the Labor preselection front-runner is John Lister, a local teacher and Country Fire Authority volunteer.
• DemosAU has a poll on the ban on social media use for under-16s, which finds 64% supportive and only 24% opposed, but 53% expecting the law will be ineffective compared with only 34% for effective. The poll was conducted December 5 to 16 from a sample of 809.
• Keith Pitt, who has held the Bundaberg region seat of Hinkler for the Nationals since 2013, has announced he will retire at the election, taking the opportunity to call for the party to abandon net zero emissions targets and support coal-fired power. There has been no indication that I can see of who might succeed him in Hinkler.
• The Nationals have preselected Alison Penfold, senior adviser to party leader David Littleproud and former chief executive of the Australian Livestock Exporters Council, to succeed the retiring David Gillespie in the Mid North Coast New South Wales seat of Lyne. Penfold won preselection ahead of Melinda Pavey, former state member for the upper house and the corresponding lower house seat of Oxley, and Forster accountant Terry Murphy.
• Left-aligned Ashvini Ambihaipahar, St Vincent de Paul Society regional director, Georges River councillor and unsuccessful candidate for Oatley at last year’s state election, has been confirmed by Labor’s national executive as candidate for the southern Sydney seat of Barton, to be vacated at the election with the retirement of Linda Burney. One of those overlooked, former state upper house member Shaoquett Moselmane, resigned from a party position in protest, Elizabeth Pike of the St George Shire Standard reporting rumours he may run as an independent.
• James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph reports that Warren Mundine will seek Liberal preselection for the northern Sydney seat of Bradfield, to be vacated at the election with the retirement of David Fletcher and contested again by teal independent Nicolette Boele, who came within 4.2% after preferences in 2022. Mundine is a former Labor national president turned conservative who ran unsuccessfully for the Liberals in Gilmore in 2022, and was the public face of the campaign against the Indigenous Voice together with Northern Territory Senator Jacinta Price.
• Slightly old news now, but it had hitherto escaped my notice that Michelle Ananda-Rajah, Labor member for the abolished Melbourne seat of Higgins, will be making do with third position on the party’s Victorian Senate ticket.
I saw a personally signed photo compilation of Don Bradman the other day at the local auction house. There wasn’t much interest in it.
Ven
Hello and nice to see you back.
Holdenhillbilly @ #928 Thursday, December 26th, 2024 – 8:50 pm
“John Pesutto is now facing a second challenge to his leadership, as Jess Wilson announces bid to overthrow the embattled Victorian Liberal leader.”
===================================================
If we were to continue our movie title theme my suggestion for the Victorian Liberals would be:
“Four Leaders and a Funeral”
frednksays:
Thursday, December 26, 2024 at 9:24 pm
Scomoll
Do you realize you could build two suburban rail loops for one nuclear power brain fade.
_____________________
Like hell.
You know jack shit about the ‘big build’ if that’s what you think.
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, December 26, 2024 at 9:23 pm
Cats are good judges of character.
———
Some are sweet, some just randomly attack out of nowhere for no reason – a bit like humans in personality variety.
“Albo is going to lose seats in Victoria next election. Lars has suggested 5 seats, I think it will be higher, around 7-8 divisions, maybe more.”
_____
Sure. … can I interest you in a bridge?
Indeed
Warne was the ideal husband and father and it is good to see his children honouring him. It is even better that it is included in the broadcast of the test.
What ‘Cost of Living Crisis’?
The Australian Retailers Association and Roy Morgan project that the billion-dollar Boxing Day blitz will spur a $3.7 billion spending spree – a 2.7 per cent increase from last year – in the six days after Christmas.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/bargain-hungry-shoppers-spur-billion-dollar-boxing-day-blitz-20241226-p5l0on.html
Oakeshott Countrysays:
Thursday, December 26, 2024 at 9:33 pm
Indeed
Warne was the ideal husband and father and it is good to see his children honouring him. It is even better that it is included in the broadcast of the test.
____________________
Shitty comment IMHO.
Bird of paradox @ #921 Thursday, December 26th, 2024 – 8:28 pm
Labor’s buffer is the 21 seats that the Coalition need.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #954 Thursday, December 26th, 2024 – 9:32 pm
I’d like some of what they’re smoking? 😉
nadia88says:
Thursday, December 26, 2024 at 9:21 pm
Thanks paul A – yes I thought so.
So looks like Pesutto is throwing Jess Wilson out as an alternative to him….
=========================
Yes. Having gone through the first stage of using a “casting vote”, and then the second stage of trying to “change the voting rules”, he’s accepted his leadership is terminal and is now trying to rally support around another candidate.
Regardless, from what I hear his (and her) support is “falling off a cliff”, to paraphrase you.
I believe it’s now 20 votes in support of Battin and 8 for Wilson, with 2 votes abstentia.
Rainman
The cat didn’t want a pat. Same happened with my duck.
As they say: if you’re a celebrity, as soon as you die you become a saint.
Although it was John Howard who objected when the Chaser did a song about that phenomena.
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Thursday, December 26, 2024 at 9:32 pm
“Albo is going to lose seats in Victoria next election. Lars has suggested 5 seats, I think it will be higher, around 7-8 divisions, maybe more.”
_____
Sure. … can I interest you in a bridge?
=====
Sure A_e, anytime
Do you remember the night we had a “discussion” about 29-31 being “baked in”.
C@tmomma says:
Thursday, December 26, 2024 at 9:22 pm
“Yep it looks like both 2019 and 2010 are the negative outliers. Bayesian modelling over the election period may struggle when one changes horses midstream? I note the following “The models include discontinuities for Kevin Rudd becoming the Labor leader (replacing Kim Beazley), Julia Gillard becoming prime minister (replacing Rudd), Rudd ousting Gillard to become prime minister again and the Abbott to Turnbull transition.” Perhaps the adjustments made did not adequately suffice for the years of 2010 and 2019.”
I’m struggling to find the overthrow of a Labor leader this term in order to make the speculation at all relevant.
__________
Well, quite 😉
Rainman – my kitten turned 1 today, so I suppose he’s a cat now.
There is another poster on this site who has a 19 year old cat, soon to turn 20.
Don’t be harsh on your pusscat please. He/she means well.
I know people who knew Warne and he was a good father. I can’t speak about his role as a husband, but I note that his ex wife spoke about her grief at his passing. So he clearly had his good points.
@Taylormerde (re: the SCG test):
“Short boundaries square of the wicket. 1st couple of rows on the fence, and you could hear the sledging from out in the middle.”
______
You are actually quite wrong. The SCG is nearly completely circular (156 x 154M). It is actually wider than the MCG (‘only’ 146M wide), and when the boundary ropes are set for test cricket there is SFA difference between the distance from the pitch to the mid-wicket boundary on each ground.
Oakeshott Country says:
Thursday, December 26, 2024 at 9:40 pm
As they say: if you’re a celebrity, as soon as you die you become a saint.
Although it was John Howard who objected when the Chaser did a song about that phenomena.
________
Perhaps he will like it better when it is his turn? 🙂
I think it’s probably time the remaining Liberal moderates around the country left the party for good asked for the name back and started a new movement, the situation as it is playing out in Victoria is untenable.
Oakeshott Country says:
Thursday, December 26, 2024 at 9:33 pm:
Warne was the ideal husband and father
Oh boy.
Most polling point to labor falling into minority so it shouldn’t surprise anyone.
And here is the song:
Stan Zemanek was a fatso xenophobe shock jock whose personality was more malignant than his brain but he turned into a top bloke on his death.
https://youtu.be/FtxqohNtLIg?si=jqsrt9pX0fNdQPtX
paul A at 9.38pm.
No worries. We’ll see how it pans out tomorrow.
My read is it will be Battin gets the gig.
His first test on Feb.8
@nadia:
“Do you remember the night we had a “discussion” about 29-31 being “baked in”.”
Yes. You were commenting on ‘polling’, not some ‘thumb on the scale’ adjustment to labor’s primary based on actual ‘polling’, then with ‘an adjustment’ to fit a pet theory. So you were were quite wrong. The actually polling for this last year shows that Labor’s ‘baked in’ primary sits within a 30-33 range, once outliers at the top and bottom of the range are excluded (in fact with the outliers it still sits within that range). Poll Bludger currently sits a shade over 31%, also squarely within that range.
We can all ‘take a punt’ on what will happen at the election, but this malarkey of Labor’s true primary sitting below 27% is based on … not polling data … as the authors of this actually proudly exclaim.
There comes a point when this sort of ‘analysis’ stops being ‘analysis’ and becomes campaigning. I think you have well and truly crossed the Rubicon in that regard.
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Thursday, December 26, 2024 at 9:43 pm
@Taylormerde (re: the SCG test):
You are actually quite wrong. The SCG is nearly completely circular (156 x 154M). It is actually wider than the MCG (‘only’ 146M wide), and when the boundary ropes are set for test cricket there is SFA difference between the distance from the pitch to the mid-wicket boundary on each ground.
_____________________
Who the fuck was talking about the dimensions of the SCG ?
Adelaide Oval before the revamp shit for brains.
You got those dimensions handy ?
mj @ #970 Thursday, December 26th, 2024 – 9:45 pm
You would think that people could make the very direct connection between state and federal Liberal.
Funnily enough when I was at uni I was watching zemanek on beauty and the beast with 2 girls after an epic 3some and they both believed he would be a great dad.
nadia88 @ #964 Thursday, December 26th, 2024 – 9:41 pm
Past is not prologue.
nadia88 says:
Thursday, December 26, 2024 at 9:43 pm
Rainman – my kitten turned 1 today, so I suppose he’s a cat now.
There is another poster on this site who has a 19 year old cat, soon to turn 20.
Don’t be harsh on your pusscat please. He/she means well.
*******************************
Don’t worry about that. All is forgiven.
I love my cat.
Oakeshott Country says:
Thursday, December 26, 2024 at 9:48 pm
And here is the song:
Stan Zemanek was a fatso xenophobe shock jock whose personality was more malignant than his brain but he turned into a top bloke on his death.
———
Prue MacSween is brain tumour free.
dave @ #977 Thursday, December 26th, 2024 – 9:55 pm
‘Memories…from the corners of my mind…’ 🙂
“Who the fuck was talking about the dimensions of the SCG ?
Adelaide Oval before the revamp shit for brains.
You got those dimensions handy ?”
______
Okey dokes. i misread ypu, as the rest of the board (at least those that give a frack about test cricket) were talking about merits of the MCG vs SCG tests.
Fair call by you, re: the short mid wicket Adelaide Oval boundaries (although I did always like the fact that a slugger could always come in and chance his arm, and wiley bowlers could always feed them enough rope to hand themselves).
Mia Culpa.
mj says:
Thursday, December 26, 2024 at 9:45 pm
I think it’s probably time the remaining Liberal moderates around the country left the party for good asked for the name back and started a new movement, the situation as it is playing out in Victoria is untenable.
=========
mj – Looks like the moderates are being wiped out, but are being replaced by “Teals”.
I believe the Federal LNP has abandoned these seats, and is focused on regional and outer suburban divisions. ie: they don’t care what their former voters in Warringah or Wentworth, think. In simple language, if those voters want Steggal or Spender, then they can have them.
Nigel Farage belled the cat 2 years ago…
Link: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/farage-says-libs-barking-up-wrong-tree-if-trying-to-win-teal-seats-back/news-story/e2117b71c8f340f91d937baf46d78a48
The “right” took over in SA under Antic about 12 months ago, and it looks like the “right” will take control of the Vic Libs tomorrow. Interesting times.
Taylormadesays:
Thursday, December 26, 2024 at 9:30 pm
frednksays:
Thursday, December 26, 2024 at 9:24 pm
Scomoll
[Do you realize you could build two suburban rail loops for one nuclear power brain fade.]
_____________________
[Like hell.
You know jack shit about the ‘big build’ if that’s what you think.]
So give us the numbers TaylorMade for this particular comparison
Don’t leave us hanging!
I think it’s probably time the remaining Liberal moderates around the country left the party for good asked for the name back and started a new movement, the situation as it is playing out in Victoria is untenable.
You would think that people could make the very direct connection between state and federal Liberal.
———
Yeah most of the fed moderates packed up and left in 2019 and the rest have or are about to go. We’re just left with incompetent, unfeeling freaks in the LNP, they shouldn’t be that hard to beat.
Taylormade,
“ Adelaide Oval before the revamp shit for brains.”
*******************************
Adelaide Oval – The Oval – is the greatest stadium in this country.
Packed out for cricket and AFL.
Even the SANFL saw 35,ooo people turn up to see the mighty Glenelg Tigers defeat the Norwood Redlegs.
So now we have to read Dave’s fantasy about having a threesome with two girls who have very serious daddy issues.
Shane Warne was an asshole. Yes he was a great spinner but seriously, you never saw Richie Benaud’s children standing on the sidelines of a Test match waving their hats in the air in some bizarro tribute that nobody watching understood its meaning.
In many ways the Warne children boganifying his tribute was a fitting hat tip to Warne. But the whole thing was puzzling if not demeaning.
Warne may have been an asshole at times, but there’s always bigger assholes, amirite?
Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
Thursday, December 26, 2024 at 9:52 pm
@nadia:
“Do you remember the night we had a “discussion” about 29-31 being “baked in”.”
Yes. You were commenting on ‘polling’, not some ‘thumb on the scale’ adjustment to labor’s primary based on actual ‘polling’, then with ‘an adjustment’ to fit a pet theory. So you were were quite wrong. The actually polling for this last year shows that Labor’s ‘baked in’ primary sits within a 30-33 range, once outliers at the top and bottom of the range are excluded (in fact with the outliers it still sits within that range).
=============
A_E,
The discussion on the night was my comment to another poster about the ALP primary being baked in at 29-31. You suggested that it was actually sitting at 30-33. Well OK, whoppie doo dah.
The fact of the matter, is that post that “discussion”, the ALP primary fell back to the following levels.
* Dec 8 Resolve: 27%
* Dec 9 Morgan: 29%
* Dec 15 Freshwater: 30%
* Dec 15 Essential: 30%
* Dec 16 Morgan: 27.5%
If you think these primary figures are somehow, something special, please explain & let me know!
The final Morgan, off a sample just shy of 1700, is frightful, or do you think you can spin this another way to me.
… and Andrew – I’ve never said the ALP primary actually sits below 27%, so stop pretending I’ve said something I didn’t. You’ll lose credibility
Confessionssays:
In many ways the Warne children boganifying his tribute was a fitting hat tip to Warne.
_________
I suggest you stop following Brooke Warne on Tik Tok. Sounds like an unhealthy obsession.
Nadia I agree, I think the “Liberals” are focusing on voter disenchantment and so focusing on outer suburbs and regional areas rhetorically. Labor could easily counteract this but are beholden to the same financial interests so don’t do anything that could win these voters back. Bottom line is neither major party is going to satisfy ordinary voters the way they are, more and more people will just defect to a third party/candidate without change.
Fess it started at the 2022 Boxing Day test on day 1 in memory of Warne who died that year. It has now become a tradition, a thing, for people to honor Warne at his home ground. The floppy hat is a Warne symbol and the tipping of the hat happens at 3.50 in memory of his Baggy Green number.
Can’t explain it better than that.
I still believe Labor will win a second term. But they seriously need to come up with some big plans and the courage to fight for them.
Rainman. Make sure you go to the doctor tomorrow and get that bite checked. Do not, I cannot emphasise this enough, do not wait to see whether or not it might get infected. Cat bite infections are notorious in how quickly they can spread.
I still believe Labor will win a second term. But they seriously need to come up with some big plans and the courage to fight for them.
—-
There’s nothing to suggest they want or have the guts to do it, so my prediction is they’ll continue to decline to parties on all ends of the spectrum.
Mexicanbeemer @ #902 Thursday, December 26th, 2024 – 7:14 pm
No worries. It always astonishes me how far removed most of the PB Labor partisans are from reality.
C@tmomma @ #957 Thursday, December 26th, 2024 – 9:34 pm
Honestly. Some people still have money, so everyone must be rich.
What an out-of-touch clown you are.
Who cares what we’re spending on Boxing Day. We have nore homeless or precarious people than ever and neither major party cares to address it. It’s insane really, and the answer is bleedingly obvious. Build good public housing.