The Australian Electoral Commission has published its post-redistribution margins for New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia, holding off for the time being on the Northern Territory as the redistribution there has not been finalised. This involves two sets of numbers: two-party preferred, which boil the issue down to Labor-versus-Coalition without regard to whether Greens or independents may have been in the mix, and two-candidate preferred, which tackles the sometimes knotty issue of estimating new margins between the parties and independents who actually made the final count at the last election.
The AEC’s report repeatedly observes that its numbers “may differ to the calculations of people external to the AEC”, by which they principally mean Antony Green but also me and Ben Raue at The Tally Room. Links to an extensive accounting of my own estimated margins were provided in an earlier post, which also offered a broad overview of the principles involved in making the calculations. I’m pleased to say my two-party margins are similar to the AEC’s: within 0.2% in 80 seats out of 100, and out by more than 0.5% only in the cases of Hume and Hasluck.
Now more than ever though, two-candidate preferred is a vexed question particularly where independents are involved, as they will not have been on the ballot paper in the parts of the electorate that have been added in the redistribution. Antony, Ben and I are all free to exercise common sense in treating the teals as a collective unit, which at least solves the problem in the cases of Warringah and Mackellar. Not only does the AEC feel it does not have the liberty to make such judgements, but Ben Raue also relates that its system is not designed to combine Labor-versus-Greens results from different electorates, which can readily be used to calculate fresh margins for Wills and Cooper — though not for Melbourne, which absorbs territory from Higgins and Macnamara, both of which had Labor-versus-Liberal two-candidate counts.
Ben Raue identifies the following electorates as ones in which mismatched two-candidate preferred counts must be combined from different parts of the electorate as redrawn by the redistributions (not counting those where the problem can be solved by falling back on two-party preferred, as can always be done where the seat is a “classic” Labor-versus-Coalition contest). These are Bradfield, Fowler, Grayndler, Mackellar, Sydney, Warringah and Wentworth in New South Wales, and Cooper, Goldstein, Kooyong, Melbourne, Nicholls, Wannon and Wills in Victoria. For reasons just explained, people external to the AEC are painlessly able to finesse the issue in Mackellar, Warringah, Bradfield, Cooper and Wills, which undoubtedly makes the non-AEC calculations more instructive in these cases. That leaves nine seats where varying degrees of creativity are required. In Labor-versus-Greens contests, this is a simple matter of estimating preference flows. But estimating support levels for independents in areas where they didn’t run last time is a very considerable challenge.
The differences in the various approaches taken are outlined at length in Antony Green’s post on the subject:
I base my estimates on a comparison of of House and Senate votes. Ben Raue uses an estimate based on the difference between two-party and two-candidate preferred results. William Bowe has not tried to adjust primary votes but rather allocates zero votes to the Independent and applies preference flows on accumulated primaries.
The chief virtue of my own method is the elegance involved in not requiring any data external to how people actually voted for the lower house of 2022, but it comes at the very substantial cost of crediting independents with very small vote shares in the newly added parts of their seats. However, the AEC’s approach is in this respect worse, as it apparently credits the independents with no votes in these areas at all (though I don’t see how that can be the case in Kooyong, where my own estimate for Monique Ryan is lower than the AEC’s). Antony Green’s and Ben Raue’s methods are of more practical value in addressing the task at hand, which is estimating how big the swing will need to be for the seat to change hands. Whether or not this is happening can be determined on election night by comparing the booths that have reported their results with the equivalent results from the previous election.
A few other bits and pieces from the last week or so:
• A second Victorian state by-election looms to go with the one to be held on February 8 in Prahran after Tim Pallas announced his resignation as Treasurer and member for Werribee, which he held in 2022 on a margin of 10.5%. The Age reports the Labor preselection front-runner is John Lister, a local teacher and Country Fire Authority volunteer.
• DemosAU has a poll on the ban on social media use for under-16s, which finds 64% supportive and only 24% opposed, but 53% expecting the law will be ineffective compared with only 34% for effective. The poll was conducted December 5 to 16 from a sample of 809.
• Keith Pitt, who has held the Bundaberg region seat of Hinkler for the Nationals since 2013, has announced he will retire at the election, taking the opportunity to call for the party to abandon net zero emissions targets and support coal-fired power. There has been no indication that I can see of who might succeed him in Hinkler.
• The Nationals have preselected Alison Penfold, senior adviser to party leader David Littleproud and former chief executive of the Australian Livestock Exporters Council, to succeed the retiring David Gillespie in the Mid North Coast New South Wales seat of Lyne. Penfold won preselection ahead of Melinda Pavey, former state member for the upper house and the corresponding lower house seat of Oxley, and Forster accountant Terry Murphy.
• Left-aligned Ashvini Ambihaipahar, St Vincent de Paul Society regional director, Georges River councillor and unsuccessful candidate for Oatley at last year’s state election, has been confirmed by Labor’s national executive as candidate for the southern Sydney seat of Barton, to be vacated at the election with the retirement of Linda Burney. One of those overlooked, former state upper house member Shaoquett Moselmane, resigned from a party position in protest, Elizabeth Pike of the St George Shire Standard reporting rumours he may run as an independent.
• James O’Doherty of the Daily Telegraph reports that Warren Mundine will seek Liberal preselection for the northern Sydney seat of Bradfield, to be vacated at the election with the retirement of David Fletcher and contested again by teal independent Nicolette Boele, who came within 4.2% after preferences in 2022. Mundine is a former Labor national president turned conservative who ran unsuccessfully for the Liberals in Gilmore in 2022, and was the public face of the campaign against the Indigenous Voice together with Northern Territory Senator Jacinta Price.
• Slightly old news now, but it had hitherto escaped my notice that Michelle Ananda-Rajah, Labor member for the abolished Melbourne seat of Higgins, will be making do with third position on the party’s Victorian Senate ticket.
Dutton’s nuclear fairy-tail
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fSeaybp9oAA
dave says:
Sunday, December 22, 2024 at 9:02 pm
Politics doesn’t mean much in relation to a person’s inherent qualities. Some rightwingers I have known, who have unpleasant views from my perspective, are some of the nicest people I have ever met, and do the nicest things for others.
************************************
I have an elderly neighbour who fought in Vietnam and hates Labor with passion. He lives alone.
He knows everyone by name in our units. He brings in all of their bins, although I keep telling him that he’s just making them lazy. He has grown and tends a beautiful garden in our common area. He will do anything for anyone.
He used to have a little old lady cat who followed him everywhere he went. When she died he cried like a baby. He still tears up when she is mentioned.
He likes to come to my place for a yarn. I know it’s really just because he wants to pat my cat, who I keep indoors.
I have also known many people who vote Labor and pride themselves on their lefty values, but are complete arseholes.
Mundine for Bradfield – he is dreaming.
The Lieberals won’t pre-select him.
I read that he was considering standing as an Independent.
Having sipped from the same Kool-Aid, that some here have imbibed, he has stated that Bradfield had a high, positive vote for The Voice and would be an ideal seat for him, to run.
I am certain that very well-educated and savvy voters of Bradfield would know that he was a significant Indigenous person, who campaigned against The Voice.
Bradfield doesn’t need Mundine and Bradfield doesn’t need Mundine standing as an Independed to potentially take votes away from Nicolette Boelle, who does have a real chance of winning this seat as a true Independent.
If the Libs do get rid of Pessuto next week. They have lost my vote. I refuse to vote for a right-wing lunatic names Brad Battin (Well more specifically a party led by him) Pessuto is the man for the job, he is moderate, credible. It’s a real shame the Libs cannot unite behind him. Because he can win the sort of voters the Libs need to win in 2026.
They won’t win with Brad Battin or any Sky News backed candidate. Yes Deeming should be re-admitted for the sake of party unity, but the condition of her being re-admitted is Pessuto leads the party until the next election which is honestly what should happen.
I want this disasterous Labor government defeated, but it has just been handed another term. GG “Liberal” party of Australia!
If Dutton was to be in the lodge in 2026, Allan will get a 70+ seat majority with Battin even losing his seat. Because PM Dutton will be more unpopular than Morrison was in Victoria.
I except Albo will still be PM so I expect Labor to win 55-60 seats at the next state election so LONG they pick a right wing guy like Battin.
Even Matthew Guy or Michael Obrien would be better than Battin at this point.
But if they have to dump Pessuto. Please do a Jess Wilson or maybe a Newbury/Wilson unity ticket.
Battin will not cut through in seats like Frankston, Mordialloc, Carrum. and even won’t hold Hawthorn.
I will be voting against the Libs unless I live in Kew or Hawthorn and the incumbents run again because I actually LIKE those Liberals.
Congratulations Jacinta Allan on winning the 2026 state election.
Wow! Duelling psephologists! I love it! Now all we need is Dr Bonham to weigh in on Ben Raue, Antony Green and Mr Bowe’s methodology for calculating results based on the new seat boundaries. 😀
From the previous thread:
dave (AnonBlock)
Sunday, December 22nd, 2024 – 9:56 pm
Comment #1909
C@tmommasays:
He asked the question, said his credentials were better than (superior) to mine and I simply replied that mine, and those of my family, were more substantial than his. Which they are. I can’t help that.
_______
I’m probably going to regret this, but C@t you have said many times that your parents are strong Liberal voters. Not sure how that works.
Every family has their black sheep. 😉
My mother was simply a rebel who rebelled against our family’s strong links to Labor and her father’s especially. Also, she and my father got hooked on Alan Jones and John Howard. 🙁
Will Mundine finally realise he will unlikely be successful in a house of reps seat if he can not get elected in the seat of Bradfield , or will he follow in the lines of Andrew Constance keep getting rejected
Scott @ 6.51pm
As stated, I don’t believe that Warren Mundine is electable on any platform.
My greater concern is that he could, if he contests as an Independent, bleed some vital votes away from Nicolette Boelle and see that a Lieberal is returned in Bradfield.
The inclusion of much of the former seat of North Sydney could benefit her campaign – which has a history of electing worthy, Independent members.
Ofcourse, he could try for the NSW Upper House and sit with his idealogical mate, Mark Latham.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers
A post-Christmas interest rate cut from the Reserve Bank could be off the agenda as the institution’s own measure of the jobs market suggests it is too strong to prevent a further sustainable fall in the country’s inflation rate. Shane Right reports that as research for the bank shows its own interest rate settings account for a quarter of the drop-off in homeownership among young Australians, documents obtained by the SMH under freedom of information show that RBA economists believe unemployment is only gradually moving back to the point where it doesn’t put upward pressure on prices.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-rba-might-delay-cutting-rates-again-there-s-a-silver-lining-for-some-20241222-p5l071.html
America and Australia tell a tale of two pandemics, and their political outcomes, writes Sean Kelly in a pretty good read.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/america-and-australia-tell-a-tale-of-two-pandemics-and-their-political-outcomes-20241220-p5l012.html
What’s happened to the cost of living is trickier than you think, explains Ross Gittins.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/what-s-happened-to-the-cost-of-living-is-trickier-than-you-think-20241222-p5l081.html
Australia’s economy is outperforming on the global stage and its resilience has been misrepresented by pundits in the media, writes Alan Austin. Right now, only one nation in the world enjoys inflation below 3%, the jobless below 4% and median wealth per adult above US$250,000. That is Australia, writes Alan Austin.
https://michaelwest.com.au/pundits-wrong-australias-economy-outperforms-global-peers/
John Pesutto’s days as Liberal leader appear numbered after five shadow cabinet ministers forced a party room meeting on Friday to decide his fate. Kieran Rooney and Rachel Eddie report that the opposition leader had made a last-ditch effort yesterday to save his job by making a shock concession and agreeing to readmit exiled MP and defamation foe Moira Deeming to the party.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/pesutto-calls-another-party-room-vote-on-deeming-s-re-admission-20241222-p5l07l.html
Mike Foley tells us about why Trump will force Labor to delay 2035 climate target, and the Dutton challenge that follows.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-to-delay-2035-climate-target-as-trump-disrupts-global-action-20241220-p5kzy8.html
Peter Dutton’s nuclear energy announcement has been totally nuked, so to speak, but Michael Pascoe argues it is nonetheless working just fine, writes Michael Pascoe He says that if a major Australian political party has had a core policy more quickly and comprehensively debunked, destroyed and generally defenestrated than the LNP’s nuclear power play, I can’t remember it. But that’s irrelevant to Peter Dutton and Atomic Ted O’Brien.
https://michaelwest.com.au/peter-duttons-nuclear-policy-is-working-just-fine/
A lack of diversity in the news sources used to train OpenAI’s ChatGPT could distort the flow of information to the public as the number of Australians using the chatbot and tools using generative artificial intelligence increases. Those chatbots that draw information solely from news sources with strong editorial leanings, such as News Corp publications, could also have a worrying effect on Australia’s already concentrated news ecosystem, academics have warned, write Callum Jaspan and David Swan.
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/openai-s-deal-with-news-corp-could-distort-flow-to-public-experts-warn-20241219-p5kzqh.html
Prefabricated homes assembled in suburban factories will help make housing more affordable, Treasurer Jim Chalmers has declared amid warnings that building costs continue to climb amid a $213 billion national pipeline of major infrastructure work. At last, the penny is dropping!
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/hopes-pinned-on-pre-fab-homes-as-building-pipeline-hits-213-billion-20241220-p5kzy7.html
Victorians whose homes have been destroyed by plumbing defects are being denied compensation because insurance companies are incorrectly capping payouts at $50,000 – a practice stretching back years and leaving some victims millions of dollars out of pocket. Kieran Rooney writes that lawyers and the plumbing industry have called for an inquiry into the problem after the issue was raised in a damning report into the Victorian Building Authority.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/three-years-of-sheer-hell-owners-of-homes-ravaged-by-defective-plumbing-fight-for-compensation-20241206-p5kwg8.html
A $4225 payment to support the parents of stillborn babies is being made available following late-term abortions, in what pro-life advocates say is a “horrific loophole” that should be urgently closed. The federal government’s Stillborn Baby Payment is provided to eligible parents of stillborn babies born at a gestation period of at least 20 weeks or weighing at least 400 grams at the time of their birth. The prominent pro-life figure and law professor, Joanna Howe, is making noise again. She’s a real piece of work who would have zero understanding of the devastating and lasting effect on women and families experiencing these events.
https://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news%2Fsouth-australia%2Fprolife-advocate-professor-joanna-howe-demands-change-to-horrific-loophole-in-stillborn-baby-payment%2Fnews-story%2F938fe5086ea11afe72f3b116292b8cbc?amp
Retail worker salaries are failing to keep pace with the rising cost of everything and lag increases secured by those in other sectors, despite a period of elevated company profits. Gross operating profits in the retail sector have increased by more than six times since 2001, while retail wages have risen by less than half as much, according to ABS data.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/dec/23/australia-retail-workers-wage-slump-abs-data-2024
Australians whose flights are cancelled should be entitled to a full refund – not vouchers – while passengers subject to more than three hours’ delay should get help to book another option, says the federal government’s new charter of rights for airline passengers. Natassia Chrysanthos explains what is in the charter and points out that this is the first concrete guidance on customer policies given to the aviation sector by an Australian government.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/delayed-or-cancelled-flight-under-a-new-passenger-charter-these-would-be-your-rights-20241221-p5l057.html
A radiology department under siege at a hospital in Sydney’s west is struggling to keep up with a backlog of more than 17,000 MRIs and other scans, leaving trainees to work unsupervised and placing patients at risk of delayed diagnoses for cancer and other serious diseases, report Angus Thompson and Kate Aubusson. Things are fraying around the edges with our health system.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/patients-wait-months-for-scan-results-at-toxic-sydney-hospital-20241205-p5kw0u.html
Meanwhile, Victoria’s corruption commission is investigating claims that surgeons at one of the country’s top hospitals fraudulently billed WorkCover and private health funds. These leeches need to be severely dealt with!
https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/rmh-scandal-deepens-with-claims-surgeons-rorting-workcover-private-health-20241219-p5kzqk.html
A dodgy pest control operator who allegedly caused “permanent damage” to a house in Sydney’s eastern suburbs and the owner of a massive stockpile of 28,000 tyres which sparked serious safety concerns are the first two business owners to be added to a new environmental name-and-shame register. Michael McGowan writes that the Minns government promised to establish the register after the discovery of asbestos at the Rozelle Parklands in Sydney’s inner west in January. The state’s Environment Protection Authority subsequently found asbestos in mulch at dozens of sites across Sydney including schools and parks.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/the-environmental-offenders-being-named-and-shamed-by-the-government-20241222-p5l07f.html
Network Ten has written down the value of its television broadcasting licences to zero with the Paramount Global-owned business crashing to a loss of more than $300 million in its last financial year.
https://www.afr.com/companies/media-and-marketing/ten-writes-tv-licence-values-to-zero-as-losses-balloon-to-322m-20241222-p5l099
A horrific mass rape trial in France has shone a light on the dark web and may help change attitudes around the world, declares the SMH editorial which says Gisèle Pelicot requested the trial take place in open court because she wanted the world to know what had happened. Her bravery is a symbol for many sexual assault survivors.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/an-extraordinary-woman-stood-up-to-dozens-of-ordinary-men-and-exploded-a-myth-20241220-p5kzxn.html
I can recommend that you read this excellent contribution “Finding grace in an America riven by retribution” from Julia Baird.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-12-22/us-election-retribution-resignation-signs-of-grace/104741442
The US central bank’s belated acknowledgement of re-accelerating inflation and the risks flowing from Donald Trump’s policies could trigger a sustained market downturn, warns Christopher Joye.
https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/the-federal-reserve-s-hawkish-pivot-is-toxic-for-stocks-20241220-p5kzvv
Since Trump was last in office, Beijing has doubled down on its efforts to gain global supremacy in electric cars, robots and rare materials. America could be toast if it doesn’t respond, writes Thomas Friedman.
https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/china-s-staggering-manufacturing-muscle-needs-to-be-seen-to-be-believed-20241218-p5kzbx
Yesterday Donald Trump indicated that he favoured allowing TikTok to keep operating in the United States for at least a little while, saying he had received billions of views on the social media platform during his presidential campaign. Of course!
https://www.afr.com/world/north-america/trump-hints-at-change-of-heart-on-tiktok-20241223-p5l0a6
Cartoon Corner
Megan Herbert
Joe Benke
Peter Broelman
Mark Knight
Bloody Spooner!
From the US
Presumably he is going to send in the Marines.
Trump to re-occupy the Panama Canal Zone (I am sure this is bullshit)
https://www.rte.ie/news/2024/1222/1487776-trump-panama-canal/
BK @ #9 Monday, December 23rd, 2024 – 7:22 am
Hmmm …
So even though inflation is now where they claimed to want it, the RBA still wants more unemployed and won’t stop ramping up the cost of living until they achieve it.
Whereas Alan Austin thinks both inflation and unemployment are just fine, there is no cost of living crisis and Australia is punching above its weight on just about every measure.
They can’t both be right. But I suppose they can both be wrong. No wonder they call economics the “dismal science”.
#weatheronPB
Refreshing sunlight,
carefully pushes aside,
the dirty blue sky.
Oakeshott Country @ #10 Monday, December 23rd, 2024 – 7:59 am
Does this come under nationalization of assets, ie communism, or international adventurism and extension of eternal war?
These right wing ultra capitalist isolationists must be so confused.
Donald Trump has a history with Panama – cozying up with the mob back in the day…
In the early 2000s, a series of bankruptcies meant Donald J. Trump was shunned by most lenders. Struggling for credit, he started selling his name to high-end real estate projects. This report examines in detail the criminal connections that propelled one such project – the Trump Ocean Club International Hotel and Tower in Panama – and how this case bears some of the same disturbing hallmarks as other Trump developments.
Since he became President of the United States, numerous investigations and articles have probed Trump’s business dealings and his alleged links to criminals and other shadowy characters. It is understood that Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation under the Department of Justice will also examine his real estate business. This is important because it seems likely that, following his various bankruptcies, at least a part of Trump’s business empire has been built on untraceable funds, some apparently linked to Russian criminal networks.
Trump may not have deliberately set out to facilitate criminal activity in his business dealings. But, as this Global Witness investigation shows, licensing his brand to the luxurious Trump Ocean Club International Hotel and Tower in Panama aligned Trump’s financial interests with those of crooks looking to launder ill-gotten gains. Trump seems to have done little to nothing to prevent this. What is clear is that proceeds from Colombian cartels’ narcotics trafficking were laundered through the Trump Ocean Club and that Donald Trump was one of the beneficiaries.
https://www.globalwitness.org/en/campaigns/corruption-and-money-laundering/narco-a-lago-panama/?accessible=true
And Trump’s usual stiffing of employees, partners and tax authorities also played out in Panama..
https://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/investor-claims-trump-dodged-panama-taxes/75e1dtse1
Why Labor has fallen into Dutton’s trap by continuing to argue about nuclear …
https://michaelwest.com.au/peter-duttons-nuclear-policy-is-working-just-fine/
And also why you should vote for independents …
How convenient …
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-to-delay-2035-climate-target-as-trump-disrupts-global-action-20241220-p5kzy8.html
It not only gives Labor the excuse it needs to delay setting a real target instead of their current pathetic one, it also gives them more time to approve new coal mines and gas fields.
Evil is as evil does and Donald Trump and Elon Musk are evil:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/12/21/trump-musk-shutdown-demands-defeat/
Michael Pascoe’s piece on Dutton’s nuclear farce & the consequences of a coalition victory nails it.
Thanks BK
Huge effort,
There appears to be a reluctant acknowledgement from some of the “expert” commentators that Chalmers/Labor’s handling of the economy, in comparison to a wide variety of economies from around the globe, is performing with distinction and should be lauded.
This reality doesn’t suit the narrative constructed by a large section of the anti- Labor media from day one of Labor’s 2022 election victory.
The Election will in all likelihood be in May and the relative healthy state of Australia’s economy compared to a very discombobulated array of economic scenarios across the globe will be impossible to ignore.
The Greens provided a telltale, however reluctantly at the end of this year’s
parliamentary cycle, that Labor and Albanese are on track, despite the false narratives to the contrary.
The policy free void that is the Dutton LNP has been given a totally undeserved “armchair” ride for two and half years but just won’t be able to survive an election campaign, whenever it is held.
The nuclear nonsense is laughable.
The polling represents a truism that at various levels, in a multi-dimensional society and with “Press corp” no longer possessing “freedom of the press” that the disgraced LNP just doesn’t have the wherewithal to provide an honest and constructive government for Australia’s future.
Racism, inequality and change loom large over a very lucky country and the next election will result in an accurate representation of voters belief for this to be displayed
@WB,
I also don’t know what the AEC has done in Bradfield. If they have not credited the IND tally from the old parts of Bradfield with any of the IND primary vote from the area transferred from North Sydney, then you would not think the margin would be so low as 3.4%.
Although arguing against myself here, perhaps it has not made that much difference as the IND vote across North Sydney was “only” 25% and with the Labor primary at 21%, all those preferences are still going to the IND 2CP tally. 3.4% does seem a bit low though if they have not treated the Teals as a party
I listen to an ‘oldies’ radio station. They just played the Rolling Stones and then Lynyrd Skynyrd, followed by an ad for funeral plans.
I’m not sure how I’m supposed to feel about that.
c@t at 8.42am: “Evil is as evil does and Donald Trump and Elon Musk are evil.”
Well, we already knew that. But, for me, the really interesting part of the story is Trump asking/allowing Musk to do his dirty work for him.
To me, that’s a sign of growing weakness on Trump’s part. Since Johnson shepherded the Ukraine funding through earlier this year, I don’t think Trump has had any confidence that Johnson will jump to any order that he gives him. And yet I also don’t think he’s certain that he can roll Johnson. So he’s going to keep getting Musk and Ramaswamy to threaten to “primary” people who won’t vote the way he wants them to. But media reports suggest an emerging stubborness among the Republican Congressional caucus, and I suspect it might soon spread to the Senators. I reckon that these representatives are mostly prepared to buy Trump’s absurd Cabinet choices (and pseudo-Cabinet choices like Musk and Ramaswamy), but they are going to be reluctant to implement the crazy policies that Trump and his Cabinet will ask them to legislate into excistence.
For instance, the demand that the debt ceiling be raised now was both unnecessary and stupid. Johnson wasn’t going to try to force it through the Congress and Senate because he knew he didn’t have the numbers to achieve something that was nothing more than a vanity project for Trump, who thinks it will allow him to argue that it was Biden and not him who was responsible for raising the ceiling. But it’s pretty obvious that, among the relatively small proportion of Americans who genuinely care about the debt ceiling, very few are going to be convinced by such an argument. Only a narcissist like Trump would bother doing something like this.
If the Congressional Dems have any sense, they should be very amenable in future to getting spending bills through, but have a born again moment in which they discover that the debt ceiling is a wonderful idea. If they refuse to raise it, there is no way in the world that Johnson will get enough votes to get it through Congress: there are still quite a few dyed-in-the-wool small government types in the Republican Caucus. If the debt ceiling isn’t raised, then Trump can only deliver his tax cuts by cutting welfare and health payments, which has more or less promised he wouldn’t do, even though Musk and Ramaswamy will be urging him to make savage cuts in these areas. And, of course, many Republicans in the Congress and the Senate will resist such cuts because they will see them as signing their own political death sentences.
So it’s going to be extremely chaotic and perhaps not much fun for DJT. I wouldn’t be surprised if he were to quit after a year or so, after which he will do all he can to undermine JD Vance in favour of Don Jr or Eric or Ivanka. That will split the MAGA movement because people like Bannon and Musk will want an effective Republican leader rather than a drongo from the next generation of Trumps.
I don’t think I’m being unduly optimistic here. It’s becoming pretty clear that this isn’t going to work. However, I’m worried about the side effects of Ozymandias’s fall.
Mostly Interested @ #13 Monday, December 23rd, 2024 – 8:30 am
Just US imperialism dressed up as the Monroe Doctrine
Next we will have United Fruit imposing a dictator in Honduras
Uncle Tom Mundine just won’t give up will he? He stands for nothing other than himself, if he bombs in Bradfield, One Nation might take him next time, ‘Pauline and me have always been great mates’.
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. The piece by Allan Austin is excellent and worth a read.
https://michaelwest.com.au/pundits-wrong-australias-economy-outperforms-global-peers/
All economies are affected by world market forces and at present thanks to war and logistic constraints that has spiked the cost of living around the world. This is causing governments to fall across the OECD. That includes both conservatives (Sunak in UK) and progressives (Scholz, probably Trudeau). It was not caused by Labor, but Labor is copping a lot of flak over it.
Hence the rational way to evaluate performance is comparative. Labor’s economic performance is good compared to the rest of the world. They have made enormous changes to the budget, if not to tax structures, since the last Morrison budget.
That being said, the RBA is taking a very old fashioned approach to monetary policy. It needs to change.
Rainman: “I’m not sure how I’m supposed to feel about that.”
Probably better than if the Lynyrd Skynyrd song were followed by an ad for an airline.
OC
I agree re Trump and the Panama Canal. It is imperialism. So much for that rules based order.
What I have not seen mentioned in the debate over canal fees is that since gaining control of the canal Panama spent billions upgrading it to double capacity. That money was loans that must be repaid and Panama is not a rich country.
And having said I don’t blame Albo or Chalmers for the economic problems, I do blame them for AUKUS and our spineless approach to dealing with USA.
Socrates,
What say you about 2 defence contractors being prosecuted by the accc for collusion – yet they continue to hold govt contracts?
What is to be done ?
The Jerusalem Post reports the British wife of Syria’s deposed president Bashar Assad has filed for divorce.
It appears that unemployment needs to increase by about 0.5% before the RBA will cut interest rates. That’s about 75,000 extra unemployed.
Spot the problem in how we’ve structured the economy.
I think I have found the ultimate Christmas gift:
It’s that Bonus IPA membership that does it for me. It might even come with the seat of Hawthorn thrown in too…
Inflation thanks to failed federal labor government is till core 3.5 % and labor is still not interested in making sure mass importation of people is followed by mass exodus of visa overstayers.Own goal.
Thus inflation and demand as the reserve bank rightly states is not at a point to reduce interest rates in fact more chance of a rise soon.
Local unemployment is nudging 900,000 as locals are misplaced by visa holders.
It Might be a surprise but the Victorian opposition leader may hang on this Friday.
State failed labor party in Victoria will still lose next election debt will be $180 plus billion at least by then and blow outs and tax increases will happen.It will be a very ugly 25/26 for Victoria the debt is compounding and so will ratings downgrades? Tax increases, etc etc.
So the God botherer’s are of the opinion they hold the numbers hence who is now challenging for the leadership
And, to show “unity”, there is a proposal for the first term IPA Kew member to be deputy (noting her margin over a Teal Independent on her entry to parliament, so, as with the current “leader” out of the parliament at the next election noting the current “leader” is expected to resign upon losing the leadership
And our media and the polling organisations they employ tell us these Tory mobs are leading in the polls!!!
And pigs fly (with the wings God gave them)
Mind you there are such as pyed square taking us back to horses and buggy’s – ever looked at the plus side of a government investing into the future?
Or wallowing in the 1950’s and horse manure?
Socrates says:
Monday, December 23, 2024 at 9:28 am
“ And having said I don’t blame Albo or Chalmers for the economic problems, I do blame them for AUKUS and our spineless approach to dealing with USA.”
Totally agree. But I’d also like to blame them for not raising the dole for people suffering during these “economic problems”
Steve777 says:
Monday, December 23, 2024 at 9:47 am
Ain’t capitalism grand! Fang and claw and all that.
Lars
“ What say you about 2 defence contractors being prosecuted by the accc for collusion – yet they continue to hold govt contracts?
What is to be done ?”
====================================
That is easy. You enforce the law.
If the collusion changed who would win the contract you cancel it and issue it to the more deserving tender. E.g. what should happen with Hunter frigates.
If the collusion changed the price then you keep the contract (they still have to deliver) but fine the guilty enough to make the collusion not worth their while.
This assumes Defence is a competent contract manager. I am not suggesting they are. But certainly other countries do take defence contractors to court and national security is NOT an excuse to ignore the law. There are many examples.
https://www.imd.org/case-study/the-lockheed-bribery-scandal/
Qatar has threatened to stop vital gas shipments to the EU if member states strictly enforce new legislation that will penalise companies which fail to meet set criteria on carbon emissions, human and labour rights. Qatari energy minister Saad al-Kaabi told the Financial Times that if any EU state imposed non-compliance penalties on a scale referenced in the corporate due diligence directive Doha would stop exporting its liquefied natural gas to the bloc.
The law requires EU countries to introduce powers to impose fines for non-compliance with an upper limit of at least 5 per cent of the company’s annual global revenue.
“If the case is that I lose 5 per cent of my generated revenue by going to Europe, I will not go to Europe . . . I’m not bluffing,” Kaabi said. “Five per cent of generated revenue of QatarEnergy means 5 per cent of generated revenue of the Qatar state. This is the people’s money . . . so I cannot lose that kind of money — and nobody would accept losing that kind of money.”
The EU adopted the corporate due diligence rules in May this year. They are part of a broader set of reporting requirements aimed at aligning companies with the EU’s ambitious goal of reaching net zero emissions by 2050.
Socratessays:
Monday, December 23, 2024 at 9:23 am
Morning all. Thanks for the roundup BK. The piece by Allan Austin is excellent and worth a read.
https://michaelwest.com.au/pundits-wrong-australias-economy-outperforms-global-peers/
All economies are affected by world market forces and at present thanks to war and logistic constraints that has spiked the cost of living around the world. This is causing governments to fall across the OECD. That includes both conservatives (Sunak in UK) and progressives (Scholz, probably Trudeau). It was not caused by Labor, but Labor is copping a lot of flak over it.
Hence the rational way to evaluate performance is comparative. Labor’s economic performance is good compared to the rest of the world. They have made enormous changes to the budget, if not to tax structures, since the last Morrison budget.
That being said, the RBA is taking a very old fashioned approach to monetary policy. It needs to change.
______________________
It’s also not just that Australia is performing well by global standards, even within country the data is showing that equality is improving:
– labour share of national income is rising over this term of government (reversing a decade decline)
– government social spending is the highest share of the economy since WW2
– union membership share is up for the first time in decades
– wages are rising faster that profits, and are up in real terms.
The “progressive” left is as bad as the right on this, constantly claiming catastrophic economic conditions which undermine the real gains for workers that are occurring. It’s all electoral politics and not a real reflection of the trajectory of the country.
UK Cartoons and other miscellany
Nicola Jennings
Patrick Blower
Morten Morland
Harry Burton
Brighty
Martyn Turner (some Irish Cartoons)
Harry Burton (for The Irish Examiner)
==========================================
Stolen from the internet
Memories of Christmas past
Socrates @ #27 Monday, December 23rd, 2024 – 9:28 am
So much for ‘No New Wars’ (another Trump election campaign promise broken in double quick time, even before he’s inaugurated).
Want to know why? Guess who paid to widen the Panama Canal? Yep. China.
Do you think they’ll take Trump’s imperialism quietly? Nope. They believe they have bought and paid for Panama. They don’t like giving possessions up without a fight.
Thank you Andrew_Earlwood for your magnificent history of the Liberal Party
The Liberal Party is an 80 year old marketing scam, constituted by the Melbourne Advertising Industry and bankrolled by the ww2 black marketers, bootleggers, war profiteers and tax dodgers (GarBar’s clients). Menzies was the frontman, Casey its Sith lord philosopher priest and GarBar was the bagman.
It’s objectively completely wrong and misleading to be suggesting that living standards are going up. Real disposable income has seen the sharpest fall since the 1950’s and we are in a per capita recession. Whether you see yourself as left or right wing doesn’t change reality.
BK thank you for your daily news round up
For all pubsters . . . .
Wishing you and your family a happy Christmas
billie @ #40 Monday, December 23rd, 2024 – 10:26 am
The quality of the offering sure has deteriorated since then. The boot boys of the elites have taken over the party. An ex walloper as federal leader and an ex walloper as putative Victorian leader.
The “Peace President” who wants to “go back to basics and keep the US out of foreign wars”, “outflanking the Dems from the left”, “say what you will about him but his foreign policy is good” etc. is at it again.
Anyway, doesn’t matter because Obama ordered drone strikes and (insert juvenile understanding of the Arab Spring here).
Murdoch sells Foxtel to Len Blavatnik for $3.4 B
How will NRL and AFL rights be affected?
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/billionaire-backed-sports-streamer-buys-foxtel-20241216-p5kyqd.html
Hmmm..
I think I have found the ultimate Christmas gift:
———————————————
Excellent paper for starting fires.
Edited by a scientist who specialises in biological control of weeds (background working for the QLD Sugar industry) and an industrial chemist; launched by a mining geologist.
Look, if you have to scrape the bottom of the barrel, maybe you might like to think your trying so hard because you are so F’ING WRONG!
I really dont care that these two and Plimer wanna write crap science books. But man, the IPA have lurched so far into the looniesphere it now completes the take over of one side politics by these mentally (and many morally) corrupt cultists. When one part of the two party democratic system is broken and divorced from reality, what hope the system?
Sprocket
4 years of chaos just beginning
Kooyong acquired that part of Higgins that voted for Michelle Ananda-Rajah (ALP) over Katie Allen (Lib) whom the Toorak Presbyterians took a dislike to.
Was it her proposal to ban alcohol in Parliament like she banned alcohol at parent events at Melbourne Girls Grammar?
Was it her cheesy photo ops with Scummo?
These voters gee’d each other up and defiantly voted Labor* but will happily vote for Monique Ryan over a Liberal party hack
*observation of Labor volunteers at polling booths
OC
The classic narcissist discard, following injury.