The Financial Review reports the final monthly Freshwater Strategy poll for the year (no link as of yet) has voting intention results identical to last time, with the Coalition leading 51-49 from primary votes of Labor 30%, Coalition 40%, Greens 14% and others 16%. Anthony Albanese is at 34% approval and 51% disapproval, up one on both counts, while Peter Dutton is steady on 37% and down one to 40%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister widens from 44-43 to 46-43, but a suite of questions on the leaders’ attributes produces better results for Dutton, including a 44% to 31% lead for being a strong leader. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1051.
UPDATE: Presumably paywalled report here. The poll finds 48% expect the Coalition to win the election, 18% in majority and 29% in minority, compared with 39% for Labor, 25% in minority and 14% in majority.
Vlad says:
Tuesday, December 17, 2024 at 9:00 pm
I know Dave at 8.39pm.
Since nadia88 has been on the site, the ALP primary has “fallen off a cliff”.
……..
=========================
And since you’ve been on the site Vlad, the Greens vote has “fallen off a cliff”.
Sam Konstas has to be called up into the Australian team
Pretty boy Angus Taylor’s a tool. He’s called out Chalmers for a budget blowout of $1.8B to make up for Tory’s irresponsibility of underfunding Vet
Affairs. As Boerwar has posted, when Labor came to office there were over
40k claims that were essentially collecting dust.
[Pretty boy Angus Taylor’s a tool. ]
Pretty boy Angus Taylor’s a “bent” tool.
Socrates says:
Tuesday, December 17, 2024 at 8:53 pm
Although there is no crossover between Sturt and Black, there is an almost complete crossover between Sturt and the SA state seats of Bragg and Dunstan. Dunstan was the other former State Liberal leader’s seat that fell to Labor in a by election last year. (First in 100+ years, only for Black to make in 2 of 2 a year later). Check the last SA state swings in both Bragg and Dunstan.
—-
Yep, I’m under no illusions about the current strength of the ALP vote in Adelaide and surrounds.
Boothby – very minimal prospects for Ms Flint.
Sturt is the obvious ALP pick up.
I’m only going by the recent Black by election and the comments on that thread.
The swing was quite significant.
SA is looking like a 7-2-1 division split
Mavissays:
Tuesday, December 17, 2024 at 9:17 pm
Pretty boy Angus Taylor’s a tool. He’s called out Chalmers for a budget blowout of $1.8B to make up for Tory’s irresponsibility of underfunding Vet
Affairs. As Boerwar has posted, when Labor came to office there were over
40k claims that were essentially collecting dust.
====================================================
While Angus was part of the previous Government. I think he knew how incompetent his own Government was. Hence his tendency to keep his money offshore.
nadia88says:
Tuesday, December 17, 2024 at 8:23 pm
The Division of Lingiari (the old NT electorate, bar Darwin & surrounds):
Last election:
* ALP 37%
* LNP 35%
* Grn 11%
* Others 17%
Turnout: 67%
———–
* The seat is held by a Minister – Marion Scrymgour. She is high profile, and also no nonsense.
——————–
Scrymgour is the Labor MP for Alice Springs and surrounds where violent behaviour is rampant – wife/partner bashing, break ins (Scrymgour has been the victim of a break in, and lives in fear of another).
Albanese visited in January 2023, for a couple of hours, spoke to the media, gave a couple of $100million to someone. And left.
Was not interested in the voices of some community members, some women. At the time 13 women were in ICU from their injuries.
And almost 2 years later nothing seems to have changed.
This member, actually her party, the Labor party have failed her community.
I would say these people are not the ones Labor really wants to help.
Why would they vote for her and Labor again?
Nadia88 has analysed the situation well.
“Scrymgour is the Labor MP for Alice Springs and surrounds where violent behaviour is rampant – wife/partner bashing, break ins (Scrymgour has been the victim of a break in, and lives in fear of another).
Albanese visited in January 2023, for a couple of hours, spoke to the media, gave a couple of $100million to someone. And left.
Was not interested in the voices of some community members, some women. At the time 13 women were in ICU from their injuries.”
How are you claiming to know this?
The Division of Wentworth (inner east of Sydney).
Gosh, the candidate profile for the Lib candidate Ro Knox.
“Ro” – trying to do the exotic sounding thing.
Link: https://nswliberal.org.au/ro-knox/meet-ro
Straight retain by Allegra, most likely on primaries.
Socrates @ #999 Tuesday, December 17th, 2024 – 7:56 pm
I don’t think Dave was at all serious!
But he opened the gates of boring info (sorry folks – scroll on by)…
There’s about 1400 watts per square metre available from the sun.
My panels were 250 watts when new – at the equator at midday!
So that’s about 210 watts in Victoria at midday at the height of summer facing due north with a 60 degree inclination.
Unfortunately:
Some of the watts have escaped over time.
My house faces NNW
My roof inclination is about 35 degrees (which is pretty optimal for year round performance)
I live in a forest so I get shade at each end of the day
My panels are second hand and are capable of only 70 to 80 percent of rated capacity
So instead of 250 watts I get about 150 watts per panel.
Fortunately, as the price per panel is between 0 and 30 dollars each, I have 72 panels!
Mostly agree with your assessments Nadia, though I think Fowler will be held by Dai Le. Would expect her to be returned with an increased margin, I think people will prefer to have an established independent member even if it’s traditionally a safe Labor seat, as that member is then free to negotiate with either party that forms govt to extract concessions to that seat.
Kirsdarke @ #1019 Tuesday, December 17th, 2024 – 8:26 pm
That was great, Kirsdarke. 😀
Was Francis Greenslade a real unknown then?
timbosays:
Tuesday, December 17, 2024 at 9:37 pm
Socrates @ #999 Tuesday, December 17th, 2024 – 7:56 pm
Dave
“ Looking forward to powering my house with a panel the size of a tv.”
That is physically impossible. The best current solar panels are around 20% efficient. If they got to 100% efficient, one perfect solar panel would replace five current ones. A home needs 15 to 20+ solar panels to replace all power including gas heating and/or AC. So we will never need less that 3 to 5 panels to fully power a modern home. There are 44 on our roof.
I don’t think Dave was at all serious!
But he opened the gates of boring info (sorry folks – scroll on by)…
There’s about 1400 watts per square metre available from the sun.
My panels were 250 watts when new – at the equator at midday!
So that’s about 210 watts in Victoria at midday at the height of summer facing due north with a 60 degree inclination.
Unfortunately:
Some of the watts have escaped over time.
My house faces NNW
My roof inclination is about 35 degrees (which is pretty optimal for year round performance)
I live in a forest so I get shade at each end of the day
My panels are second hand and are capable of only 70 to 80 percent of rated capacity
So instead of 250 watts I get about 150 watts per panel.
Fortunately, as the price per panel is between 0 and 30 dollars each, I have 72 panels!
==================================================
Are you off grid with batteries or just doing a lot of feeding into the grid most days?
Entropy @ #1058 Tuesday, December 17th, 2024 – 9:32 pm
Ah, Irene it is.
goll
What are you getting at here, exactly?
Trying to do William out of job Nadia.
We won’t need his election guide the way you are going.
Timbo, quantum solar power. Using the multiverse to power your house.
Vlad @ #1043 Tuesday, December 17th, 2024 – 9:00 pm
Funny how some people are trying vewy, vewy hard to forget the last Newspoll.
Division of Cowper (upper mid coast NSW)
Last election:
* NATS 39%
* Ind (Heise) 26%
* ALP 14%
* GRN – the primary is lower than the PHON primary
Another classic Teal looking seat. Heise is standing again.
There should be a bounceback to the Nats after suffering a 7% drop last time.
Haven’t heard much of Conaghan, the incumbent.
Heise has made a name for herself over the Coffs Foreshore re-development.
However, on her website she talks a lot about “what” she wants, but not about the “how”.
She’s very interested in “advocating for Cowper” and hoping voters “join the journey”.
This is the warning sign (for me) of drivvel.
I think the Nats will retain. Sorry, wrong candidate for the Teals.
C@t have you developed an Elmer Fudd style speech impediment which you feel the need to mimic in your written words?
C@tmomma at 8.28pm
You love picking Labor seats you think they’ll lose. Have you done a similar analysis of seats you think the Liberal Party, the LNP or the CLP may lose? Or do you think they’re all hunky dory?
——————
Nasty c@t comes back to attack nadia for having an opinion. Tell us again how you never attack anyone, c@t?
Keep up your analysis please, nadia. It should’ve been very apparent from the recent skirmish that a lot of us here value your contributions.
Lars Von Triersays:
Tuesday, December 17, 2024 at 9:56 pm
C@t have you developed an Elmer Fudd style speech impediment which you feel the need to mimic in your written words?
___________________
Be vewy vewy quiet she’s hunting nadiaas.
Lars Von Triersays:
Tuesday, December 17, 2024 at 9:56 pm
C@t have you developed an Elmer Fudd style speech impediment which you feel the need to mimic in your written words?
===================================================
Do you ever have any point to what you write?
Abusing someone you are having a political or ideological argument with is one thing. Just abusing them for no obvious reason is something else again.
I’ve got it! Cover the hull of the Collins class subs in solar panels!
No need for diesel or nuclear reactor.
Just don’t dive 🙂
Dutton might go for it 😐
Final comment for tonight – competition for the GP Frigate (Sea3000) contract is hotting up. Japan is arguing its Mogami frigate is stealthier and faster (true). Also reportedly more costly.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-12-17/japans-pitch-to-clinch-10-billion-australian-warship-prize/104737686
IMO both the German Meko and Japanese Mogami are good designs. Neither is a bad choice. If the government is in a hurry and short of cash build the Meko. If it has more time/cash and wants the best long term outcome build the Mogami.
It would be difficult for 13 women victims of DV to be in Alice Springs ICU as there are only 10 beds. Perhaps some were shipped out but it would still leave no room for any one else to be treated
Entropysays:
Do you ever have any point to what you write?
Abusing someone you are having a political or ideological argument with is one thing. Just abusing them for no obvious reason is something else again.
_______________
What, like you accusing nadiaa of ‘guttersniping’ for giving a seat analysis?
Taylormade says:
Tuesday, December 17, 2024 at 9:44 pm
Trying to do William out of job Nadia.
We won’t need his election guide the way you are going.
=====================
I do a bit analysis. WB sticks to facts, from what I read of his commentary.
Going through the divisions always stirs up certain posters – like you, there are a few I keep an eye out for. Maybe would should talk about the division of Robertson.
Gosh, that will stir up a certain poster. Maybe in the New year.
Stinkersays:
Tuesday, December 17, 2024 at 9:59 pm
C@tmomma at 8.28pm
You love picking Labor seats you think they’ll lose. Have you done a similar analysis of seats you think the Liberal Party, the LNP or the CLP may lose? Or do you think they’re all hunky dory?
——————
Nasty c@t comes back to attack nadia for having an opinion. Tell us again how you never attack anyone, c@t?
Keep up your analysis please, nadia. It should’ve been very apparent from the recent skirmish that a lot of us here value your contributions.
====================================================
That is hardly an attack though. You are allowed to believe that someones analysis might be bias one way or another and voice that. Particularly about polling analysis on are polling website.
davesays:
Tuesday, December 17, 2024 at 10:21 pm
Entropysays:
Do you ever have any point to what you write?
Abusing someone you are having a political or ideological argument with is one thing. Just abusing them for no obvious reason is something else again.
_______________
What, like you accusing nadiaa of ‘guttersniping’ for giving a seat analysis?
=====================================================
I never accused Nadia of guttersniping. I accused LVT of that.
nadia88
Thanks for providing the percentage votes in Fowler in 2022, with the other stats. It really helps me to focus on what is likely to happen next time, rather than having to go and look things up – which I would probably not have had time to do.
I will be watching this seat very carefully on election night.
It is possible that the loyalty to the ALP that the local Vietnamese community felt during the Howard years (right from him attacking asian immigrants as LOTO in the 1980s through to his being PM, ending only in 2007) has now evaporated in a community of small business people who see the conservative side of politics as being on their side.
Is there anyone from the PBtariat on the ground in Fowler who can give us more info?
Didn’t seem like it to me but then again who cares?
You just need to learn to say Entropy – “Lars was and is right” and immediately you will feel better about yourself.
Not sure timbo still here …
But here’s a conversation I had with him from the other night..
8:05 pm
Thanks for your post Timbo.
The truth is that the cost to store that energy is very expensive and would drive prices through the roof without the back-up of either coal or gas.
The cost for batteries is plummeting. I concede that in the very short-term Gas may be useful but coal? Noone in their right mind is building coal generation.
As to cost…see below. My system will pay for itself in another three years when the current upgrade is complete – bye bye grid, bye bye power bills.
That’s what the power companies fear most. That’s why they want everyone to be grid-tied. In the near future, if you have enough roof space for solar you will have no need of grid support. As it is with only half the solar panels installed, I only use the grid for backup – not my batteries. I run off batteries and occasionally charge from grid. When I install the remaining panels, I may even disconnect from the grid entirely. It is ridiculously cheap now – and it’s only getting cheaper.
December 11th, 2024 – 7:52 pm
Hey timbo do you have a link to the batteries you purchased ,having 10.5 kw solar installed shortly ……..looking at a battery to go with it.
Just looked them up – bugger, they are even cheaper!
https://www.alibaba.com/product-detail/Lf280k-6000-Cycles-Lifepo-280-Ah_1600812910481.html?spm=a2756.trade-list-buyer.0.0.50df76e9bSaovS
$59 US per cell. You need 16 cells. You also need a BMS – approx. 100 to 200 SAU or buy a battery box with BMS for a few hundred dollars (very desirable). This gives >
15 KWH.
This is of course assuming you already have an inverter capable of charging.
If not, I also bought a second 8KW Inverter that can be supplied from Grid/Solar/Battery that automatically switches to battery if there is a blackout etc. for about $1800 from MPP Solar in Taiwan.
I bought my first battery to compliment my solar array 4 years ago for around $2600.
It’s capacity is 20% larger than a Tesla Powerwall costing $12000.
I bought a second battery 3 months ago – same size as the first for $1800.
Total capacity over 30 KWH.
The price has come down a further 20% since then – just 3 months!
D&M – I think Fowler should be a straight bounceback to the ALP.
Mr Hayes used to pull 60% + primaries.
I think there was an aberration with KK in 2022. I think it will revert to labor quickly on election night.
The only hiccup is if the “Barton issue” reminds the voters in Fowler, of head office intervention.
ie: the being taken for granted thing.
davesays:
Tuesday, December 17, 2024 at 10:30 pm
Didn’t seem like it to me but then again who cares?
C@tmommasays:
Tuesday, December 17, 2024 at 8:29 pm
Lars Von Trier @ #1020 Tuesday, December 17th, 2024 – 8:28 pm
Geotech engineer and govt finance expert to boot!
And you’re an expert in sneer, smear and smarm.
==================================================
I thought it the above comment that Cat got called out for. That was the comment i thought it was fair enough to call out someone for guttersniping. I’m hardly likely to call some disagreement on polling guttersniping.
Particularly as the guttersniping that CAT was having a go at here. Was actually directed at me.
Socratessays:
Tuesday, December 17, 2024 at 10:09 pm
Final comment for tonight – competition for the GP Frigate (Sea3000) contract is hotting up. Japan is arguing its Mogami frigate is stealthier and faster (true). Also reportedly more costly.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-12-17/japans-pitch-to-clinch-10-billion-australian-warship-prize/104737686
IMO both the German Meko and Japanese Mogami are good designs. Neither is a bad choice. If the government is in a hurry and short of cash build the Meko. If it has more time/cash and wants the best long term outcome build the Mogami.
___________________
Question for tomorrow then, if the Japanese option is bigger and “better”, is there risk that it is over built/over priced for a “general purpose” frigate? No naval expert other than seeing this is supposedly the “tier 2” class.
Fubar at 6.41 pm
Scholarly research (as linked above) is not flippant just because you will not, or can not, read it.
Here is a short version of an article titled ‘The insidious dogma of deterrence’, published in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists in the US in 1986. The longer version had been published in winter 1985/86 in the UK journal International Affairs, the leading UK journal on world politics.
https://sci-hub.se/10.1080/00963402.1986.11459454
Try to consider the challenging idea expressed in the opening para, in these 4 sentences:
‘Drawing on the experience of the 1930s, Western policy makers concluded that war could be prevented by deterring Soviet aggression with the threat of punishment. The shorthand for such a policy was “deterring war;’ a term that has become a cornerstone of Western policy pronouncements and permeates our thinking on peace and war. Besides falling into the fallacy of claiming to deter an activity rather than a specific action, the pious overtones of this expression obscured the radical nature of the underlying principle. U.S. policies were to be based on the idea of preventing war by the threat of punishment, rather than the time-honored principle of avoiding war through negotiation and diplomacy.’ (p 24)
Then recall if you can, or learn, the history of the Cuban missile crisis, which was obscured for many years but is well publicised now. Briefly, what occurred is this. First, deterrence failed (as with Putin re Ukraine). The US and USSR were miles apart politically, particularly because of large misperceptions based on ignorance as well as institutionalised hostility.
Second, most of Kennedy’s advisors told him not just to threaten punishment but to inflict it pronto by attacking Cuba. None of them knew there were already Soviet nuclear weapons in Cuba, as well as on submarines. Their advice, if followed, would have destroyed civilisation.
Third, remarkably, Kennedy and his brother, eventually supported by McNamara and the US Ambassador to the UN Aldai Stevenson, followed what MccGwire calls ‘the time-honored principle of avoiding war through negotiation and diplomacy’. It is because Kennedy, in a time of extreme crisis, refused the dogmas of ‘groupthink’ and sought negotiation instead of war that the failure of nuclear deterrence in that crisis did not lead to complete destruction.
Fortunately, there are only a few crazies at ANU who have promoted the misguided faith you have in nuclear weapons as an Australian aim, and they are almost always imports. AUKUS is not a path toward Australian nuclear weapons, which would obviously breach the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. It is just a way for Australia to help pay for US and UK submarines.
Sorry I must have missed where Lars was ‘guttersniping’. You’ve lost me.
Entropy at 10.23pm
That is hardly an attack though. You are allowed to believe that someone’s analysis might be bias one way or another and voice that. Particularly about polling analysis on are polling website.
—————-
Oh good, Entropy’s pedantry is back again.
C@t’s comment comes on the back of her targeting of nadia, based on her view that nadia isn’t even-handed in her analysis (read: nadia isn’t sufficiently deferential to the view that Labor is infallible and its polling woes are nothing of the sort). C@t outright accused nadia of being a Liberal the other night, for suggesting that Labor’s primary vote in the current polling is poor.
Anyway, c@t’s criticism tonight, that nadia was only addressing seats where she expects Labor to do badly / ignoring seats where she expects the Coalition to do poorly, was dispelled moments after c@t’s crack at nadia. There’s probably a lesson in there for c@t, but I’m sure she won’t take it.
Entropy @ #1086 Tuesday, December 17th, 2024 – 10:37 pm
Exactly. And you know why I continue to call it out is because for at least a decade Edwin St John/Edwina/Lars Von Trier has chosen people from time to time, to say things about them that are based on the thinnest of gruel or just aren’t true and they veer into the snide, the smarm and the smear. And yes, before anyone gets on their high horse and rides into town, pots and kettles. I get it. However, Lars Von Trier chooses particular people to concentrate on, such as they did to me in the most humiliating way possible, recently to goll, and now that you are back again (thank goodness), to you, Entropy. And I just wanted to say, we see you, Lars Von Trier.
So here is reportedly what happen in Canada:
– Trudeau over zoom tells Freeland he is moving her from Finance to a new ministerial post of relations with the USA which was not going to have its own department.
– “Oh, Sorry but we still need you to present the budget update which shows we are in trouble with a deficit that is blowing out”.
– “And we are going to tell people of your move until after you do the budget announcement so it will look like you’re being punished. Sorry”
So Freeland goes “Sorry, I ain’t eating that excrement sandwich” and then proceeds to denounce him very strongly a few hours before the budget announcement was due.
Trudeau calls the Liberal Party caucus where every speaker says we want you to resign.
Trudeau goes off to consider his future.
Meanwhile, the Liberals get flogged in a by-election in BC. They were never going to win that by-election where the conservatives were running the previous MP but it adds to the excrement storm.
C@t I think it’s fair to say that I have always been very polite to you and it hasn’t done me much good in return.
nadia88 at 9.51 pm
Yes, Nats will retain Cowper, however bad their candidate. Oakeshott stood in 2016, losing by 4.6%, and 2019, losing by 6.8%. LNP need a real shocker, like S. Mirabella, to lose in the regions.
Stinker @ #1090 Tuesday, December 17th, 2024 – 10:40 pm
So I was right. Until I wasn’t. Okay, got it. 😐
And I’m not targeting nadia88. I just don’t get why she shouldn’t have her contributions held up to the same sort of scrutiny that anyone else’s is?
Is this a site where we can converse about such things, or are some people’s contributions out of bounds for discussion and debate?
Entropy Tuesday, December 17th, 2024 – 9:42 pm
“Are you off grid with batteries or just doing a lot of feeding into the grid most days?”
I still have the grid as backup at the moment. Might cut it off after summer when most of the grid failures are over. Each time the grid goes down for more than a few days, the power company has to pay a couple of hundred dollars for loss of power(though the lights never go off here) and that pays the connection fee.
We – as consumers don’t need the grid. Depending on circumstances of course. Feed in rates are too low anyway – it’s a rip off. They pay you 6c/kwh while charging you 30 or 40 cants for the same amount of electrons. I have many friends who are grid tied and feed in the 6 kws of panels (is it) and then the power goes down and they are in the dark. Get batteries is the answer and you don’t need many to keep the lights on.
All the while we have to look at those ugly wires strung along every street – and they complain about those ugly wind turbines!
They want to keep us all on the teat that is the grid. Not this little black duck!
dave Tuesday, December 17th, 2024 – 9:46 pm
“Timbo, quantum solar power. Using the multiverse to power your house.”
Na – just a time traveller from the future stuck with a flat power flux generator. Need all the panels I can get – about another 10 years of recharging should be enough to get back(forward) home.
davesays:
Tuesday, December 17, 2024 at 10:40 pm
Sorry I must have missed where Lars was ‘guttersniping’. You’ve lost me.
==================================================
The first post Lars did tonight was this:
Lars Von Triersays:
Tuesday, December 17, 2024 at 8:28 pm
entropy is a Geotech engineer and govt finance expert to boot!
I assume he was saying it to try and belittle. Don’t you?
dave @ #1093 Tuesday, December 17th, 2024 – 10:49 pm
I still remember what you said about my trip to the US. Not nice. Not fair. And that’s the only reason that I have continued to view your contributions adversely since you returned, nath.
Division of Braddon (TAS – west coast)
Last election:
* LNP 44%
* ALP 23%
* JLN 10%
* GRN 7%
Albo rushed over there the other week to “settle” the Macquarie Harbour salmon issue.
Fairly strong LNP primary (new candidate mind you Mal Hingston). JLN will probably drop back, some of their vote returning to the Libs.
Big hurdle for Labor to overcome.
My guess: LNP retain, probably with a bigger margin
C@tmomma at 10.51pm
So I was right. Until I wasn’t. Okay, got it.
And I’m not targeting nadia88. I just don’t get why she shouldn’t have her contributions held up to the same sort of scrutiny that anyone else’s is?
Is this a site where we can converse about such things, or are some people’s contributions out of bounds for discussion and debate?
——————-
Sure, if you play the ball, not the man. But you didn’t do that. You jumped straight to “nadia is fixated on picking seats that she thinks Labor won’t win, because she’s biased towards the Coalition” (which you were wrong about anyway), rather than engaging at all with what she actually said. Which is entirely consistent with what you did the other night when you accused her of being a Liberal shill for her views on the polling.