The Financial Review reports the final monthly Freshwater Strategy poll for the year (no link as of yet) has voting intention results identical to last time, with the Coalition leading 51-49 from primary votes of Labor 30%, Coalition 40%, Greens 14% and others 16%. Anthony Albanese is at 34% approval and 51% disapproval, up one on both counts, while Peter Dutton is steady on 37% and down one to 40%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister widens from 44-43 to 46-43, but a suite of questions on the leaders’ attributes produces better results for Dutton, including a 44% to 31% lead for being a strong leader. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1051.
UPDATE: Presumably paywalled report here. The poll finds 48% expect the Coalition to win the election, 18% in majority and 29% in minority, compared with 39% for Labor, 25% in minority and 14% in majority.
Don’t be such a killjoy Socrates.
If the Libs can power the nation with SMRs it’s just as realistic for dave to power his home with a tv sized solar panel.
I’m surprised no one’s pitched hooking up the kinetic energy from the Shadow Cabinet/IPA circle jerk to the grid, cos there’d be enough excess to export.
C@tmommasays:
Tuesday, December 17, 2024 at 8:01 pm
FUBAR @ #951 Tuesday, December 17th, 2024 – 6:27 pm
“Respected Alice Springs elder Benedict Stevens ‘beat partner with Aboriginal tool’”
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/indigenous/respected-alice-springs-elder-benedict-stevens-beat-partner-with-aboriginal-tool/news-story/ab1edbb787d2cd55b57e406b29dad4bd
How is this in any way acceptable?
It is as bad as the NAAJA having a Chairman guilty of DV.
And the Northern Territory Country Liberal Party government is doing what about it and him?
==========================================i========
Fubar only mentioned it because the person involved is indigenous. If it was some religious conservative doing to his wife. He would never bring it up.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-10/this-is-how-evangelical-churches-can-breed-domestic-violence/11778864
https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/bomb-kills-russian-general-in-charge-of-nuclear-forces-in-moscow-reports-20241217-p5kz4g.html
Rewi
“If the Libs can power the nation with SMRs it’s just as realistic for dave to power his home with a tv sized solar panel.“
Good point. I had also failed to consider perpetual motion machines, cold fusion and anti-matter drives. The solutions are all there. I’m sure they’ll all be Liberal Party policy soon. We engineering folk just have to work harder at implementing them.
FUBAR
It’s Conservatives that are running the culture wars, apparently:
“A convicted terrorist is suing a pub called The Saracen’s Head Inn over its “deeply offensive” sign.
I doubt this convicted terrorist would identify as a liberal/progressive.
Pretty sure my barista uses this all the time.
Socrates
Remember when Joh was endorsing the guy with the water powered car? Nuclear fission was said to be involved.
https://www.facebook.com/share/v/19eCwbqHeq/
crazy ideas a Queensland thing?
Another night of the ABC going on about Victoria’s debt with little mention of what it has been purchased.
C@tmomma @ #743 Tuesday, December 17th, 2024 – 1:10 pm
“Lets see now – that’s the enterotoxigenic E.coli, HUS, assorted MDR Salmonella, Listeria, MTb, M.bovis & some H5N1 HPAI (don’t squirt it in your eye – it has the right furin receptors) Mr HHS Secretary. Oh – don’t forget some fresh cysticerci to replace the burnt out ones in your temporal lobes…”
Rossmcg @ #1008 Tuesday, December 17th, 2024 – 8:17 pm
Ye gods, Joh really comes across as one of the ridiculous pre-WW3 leaders in the Fallout universe here.
rhwombat @ #1010 Tuesday, December 17th, 2024 – 8:19 pm
That is possibly the grossest thing I’ve ever seen. Imagine having to share space with him after he’s eaten that! God the man is simply disgusting.
Entropy
I inquired on the blog not long ago what had become of you but no one responded. Then suddenly here you are back again. Was it an overseas trip or something?
The Division of Lingiari (the old NT electorate, bar Darwin & surrounds):
Last election:
* ALP 37%
* LNP 35%
* Grn 11%
* Others 17%
Turnout: 67%
———–
* The seat is held by a Minister – Marion Scrymgour. She is high profile, and also no nonsense.
She also took on Lydia Thorpe (one of the few politicians this term, who has taken Thorpe on).
Link: https://nit.com.au/24-06-2024/12163/marion-scrymgour-to-launch-legal-proceedings-against-lidia-thorpe-over-social-media-post
* Margin < 1%
* Recent turnout for some Territory seats (bar Darwin) has been in the low 40's.
* In my read, that's a loss of 20% of the vote, that is if the turnout has dropped in remote booths. I guess it is, and not in Alice or Katherine.
* The turnout at the recent NT election in Gwoja (western NT from the SA border to south of Katherine), was at an appalling 43%
My read:
Looking like a Labor loss to the CLP. Maybe the Scrymgour v Thorpe issue may help her (and I hope it does), but if the turnout is down, sorry I think she'll lose.
I knew some pedant would shit on my tv sized solar panel and I had Socrates high on the list of suspects.
I’m surprised Trudeau has managed to last this long he may as well just voluntarily resign, he’s probably too proud and vain to admit his toast. First the NDP tore up their minority govt agreement, now his deputy PM has just resigned possibly the Liberals being in a minority position in parliament has made them fear deposing him would lead to a no confidence vote in the govt. Perhaps a new leader may recover the Liberals position somewhat, right now they are 20%+ behind the Tories and battling out with the NDP for 2nd position.
Entropy @ #1003 Tuesday, December 17th, 2024 – 8:09 pm
He mentioned it because he wants to link federal Labor to anything that ever goes wrong with an Indigenous individual with a position of authority. Nasty stuff.
So I made the point that his mates in the Country Liberal Party are the ones in charge up there now and they came to power on a law and order platform and it’s THEIR problem to solve.
frednksays:
Tuesday, December 17, 2024 at 8:18 pm
Another night of the ABC going on about Victoria’s debt with little mention of what it has purchased.
=================================================
In 2019, before Covid, the Federal LNP Government had got debt to around 42% of GDP. Don’t remember the ABC going on about like they do for a state debt at around 25% of state GDP.
When it comes to RFK Jr. I always remember Francis Greenslade’s song in his performance on Red Faces on Hey Hey It’s Saturday in 1987.
https://youtu.be/hWanONPFydw?feature=shared&t=986
“Worms, worms, worms.”
Steve777 says:
Tuesday, December 17, 2024 at 7:11 pm
TPOF and Kirsdarke.
Thank you for your considered comments.
Crimes are crimes, terrorism is terrorism. Both are reprehensible, attacks on peoples’ homes and places of worship particularly so, no matter by whom, no matter whose homes and places of worship.
I am very concerned that some political figures (we know who) are giving every indication of weaponising such crimes for political advantage.
__________________________________________
I am equally concerned. Albanese and the Government are genuinely trying to keep the temperature down in Australia and have been for the last year. They have not been helped by any other political party. Bandt, for different reasons, is as bad as Dutton. Dutton’s position is not about getting Jewish votes. There are too few to really matter.
What Dutton is doing is appealing to disinterested non-muslim and non-arab voters (who are most of Australia’s voters) – many of whom have a residual sympathy for Israel – and trying to paint Albanese and Labor as weak, rather than actually trying to keep the peace in this country.
It is a sad situation in this country that the national good is sacrificed on the altar of political opportunism. It follows the lead of the USA and the immorality of the Republican Party. The only saving grace is the schadenfreude of seeing people vote for political parties and leaders who are definitely going to make their lives worse.
entropy is a Geotech engineer and govt finance expert to boot!
nadia88 @ #1013 Tuesday, December 17th, 2024 – 8:23 pm
You love picking Labor seats you think they’ll lose. Have you done a similar analysis of seats you think the Liberal Party, the LNP or the CLP may lose? Or do you think they’re all hunky dory?
Lars Von Trier @ #1020 Tuesday, December 17th, 2024 – 8:28 pm
And you’re an expert in sneer, smear and smarm. 😐
Cmon tpof – your hardly objective or independent like griff are you ?
Rossmcg
Oh yes, the Horvath Hydrogen car! How could I forget 😉
Isn’t Horvath an LNP science adviser now?
Dave
Call it pedantry if you like but engineers frown on breaking the laws of physics. That is probably why there are so few of us working in policy.
If it is any comfort I have also called AUKUS stupid whether it is Dutton or Marles fantasizing about it.
Lars Von Triersays:
Tuesday, December 17, 2024 at 8:28 pm
entropy is a Geotech engineer and govt finance expert to boot!
=====================================================
So i assume you are in totally agreement on what i said on these issues then.
The Division of Fowler (NSW):
Last Election:
* ALP (KK) 36%
* Ind Dai Lee 29.5%
* LNP 17%
Dai Lee has got to get herself a big “soph” surge, to retain the seat me thinks. She got in on LNP preferences last time, and also the anti KK feel.
The seat generally pulls in ALP primaries > 60%.
The boundaries haven’t changed that much.
Given KK is gone, and the ALP branch has settled on a local, I’d say this will flip back to the ALP fairly quickly on election night.
C@t I’m tempted to call Dom and have a chat ? What do you think ?
I’m surprised you haven’t had the orders to stand down from pb and staff the frontlines on battlefront Robertson?
They need you on that wall at Erina Fair !!
Maybe nadia88 – you also have to take into account the level of branch hatred’s in Cabramatta – there’s fighting Liberals and then there is fighting branch factional enemies in that part of the world.
Basically some of those people wouldn’t be sad if Tu Le loses.
Call it pedantry if you like but engineers frown on breaking the laws of physics. That is probably why there are so few of us working in policy.
___________________________
I was having a laugh calling you a pedant but you wait until my quantum solar panel the size of a tv gets on my roof and I will force you to perform mundane garden tasks as penance.
https://www.pv-magazine.com/2024/04/11/new-quantum-solar-cell-material-promises-external-quantum-efficiency-of-190/
C@t – grow up pleeeeeeaaaase
nadia please stop death riding Labor seats! You are jinxing it!
It sounds like if Trudeau doesn’t resign ASAP the NDP may well support a Tory no confidence motion.
“ Trudeau ‘has to go,’ NDP’s Singh says in call to ‘resign’”
“ NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh on Monday called on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau “to resign,” adding that “all options” were on the table when asked if he would support a non-confidence motion.
Speaking to reporters in Ottawa hours after Chrystia Freeland resigned as finance minister, Singh said Canadians were facing a range of economic issues from expensive groceries to high home prices and the threat of tariffs from an incoming Trump administration next year.
“Instead of focusing on these issues, Justin Trudeau and the Liberals are focused on themselves. They’re fighting themselves instead of fighting for Canadians. And for that reason, today, I’m calling on Justin Trudeau to resign,” Singh said.
“He has to go.””
https://globalnews.ca/news/10920638/jagmeet-singh-calls-justin-trudeau-to-resign/
The Division of Sturt (SA – Inner east of the Adelaide CBD)
Last Election:
* LNP 43%
* ALP 31%
* GRN 16%
Jeepers, a seat absolutely ripe for a Teal.
You can list Stevens’ achievements on the back of a postage stamp.
A Lib who should’ve worked his electorate harder.
No Crossover in the boundaries with the recent “Black” by election, but the swing against the Libs in that seat was palpable. Around 16% – which is a big swing.
Don’t see Mr Dutton in Adelaide much (flyover country for him perhaps)
Looking like an ALP pickup, unless a celebrity Teal jumps in to the fray.
Nadia88
Although there is no crossover between Sturt and Black, there is an almost complete crossover between Sturt and the SA state seats of Bragg and Dunstan. Dunstan was the other former State Liberal leader’s seat that fell to Labor in a by election last year. (First in 100+ years, only for Black to make in 2 of 2 a year later). Check the last SA state swings in both Bragg and Dunstan.
nadia88says:
Tuesday, December 17, 2024 at 8:38 pm
C@t – grow up pleeeeeeaaaase
===============================================
I thought she was just calling out some guttersniping.
I live in Sturt. The Liberal achievements can be written on the back of a postage stamp in crayon.
RhWombat
SMH has a news alert: outbreak of flesh eating ulcer in Batemans Bay – will be in Sydney soon!
(Spoiler: it’s Mycobacterium Ulcerans)
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/flesh-eating-ulcer-endemic-in-coastal-town-with-significant-risk-of-spread-to-sydney-20241217-p5kz1f.html
Video after the quake in Vanuatu: https://x.com/Danielibertari0/status/1868958258352070979/video/1
C@t
I think FUBAR was pointing out that there seems to be a double standard in the way those on the left respond to domestic violence by white men and how they respond to it when the perpetrator is an aborigine and I think he has a point. It is well known that Domestic violence is rife in places like Alice Springs but very little seems to be done about it and I wonder why. Surely for the sake of aboriginal women we should be prepared to call it out wherever it occurs.
Yeah, say what you will about Christopher Pyne but he was very visible in that electorate (not just in his capacity as a frontbencher) and he knew how to use his war chest effectively, and keep that electorate happy (and out of reach of Labor in a few elections it might have otherwise fallen.) It was basically his fiefdom for as long as he wanted.
The current member doesn’t hold a candle to that.
The Division of Aston ( outer eastern suburb of Melb).
Last by election:
* ALP 41%
* LNP 39%
* GRN 10% (note candidate Di Camillo, who is now the Prahran by election candidate)
Classic seat Dutton needs to pick up
Fairly conservative part of Melbourne. Kim Wells has held the equivalent state seat since for the Libs since the Kennett era.
Apart from 2010 – the seat was won for the LNP on primaries.
The Labor candidate will need a big soph to hang on. I can’t see it.
Should flip back to the Libs fairly quickly on election night.
I know Dave at 8.39pm.
Since nadia88 has been on the site, the ALP primary has “fallen off a cliff”.
It’s funny in a way, but perhaps best she stops talking about poĺls and goes away. Maybe the ALP primary might lift.
Only joking nadia! Keep it up. Wills please
Yes I was only joking too nadia. Don’t go anywhere!
Lingiari area got a turnout of about 64% for the Voice so that is the high water mark. Talk about irony…
nadia88says:
Tuesday, December 17, 2024 at 8:23 pm
[The Division of Lingiari (the old NT electorate, bar Darwin & surrounds):
Last election:]
* ALP 37%
* LNP 35%
* Grn 11%
* Others 17%
[Turnout: 67%]
Nadia
Have you ever been to Lingiari ?
nadia88 @ #1042 Tuesday, December 17th, 2024 – 8:59 pm
It probably will do as you say in flipping back to the Liberals, but in the outer Eastern Melbourne suburbs based on the City of Knox, things can go wildly one way or the other.
Always remember that vaccines do good:
That is a picture of the Children’s Polio Ward in an American hospital. Full of iron lungs. 🙁
Bystandersays:
Tuesday, December 17, 2024 at 8:23 pm
Entropy
I inquired on the blog not long ago what had become of you but no one responded. Then suddenly here you are back again. Was it an overseas trip or something?
=============================================
Only plan to be on here one or two days a month. That is my maximum LVT annoyance threshold.
Sam Ratnam to take Wills.