The Financial Review reports the final monthly Freshwater Strategy poll for the year (no link as of yet) has voting intention results identical to last time, with the Coalition leading 51-49 from primary votes of Labor 30%, Coalition 40%, Greens 14% and others 16%. Anthony Albanese is at 34% approval and 51% disapproval, up one on both counts, while Peter Dutton is steady on 37% and down one to 40%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister widens from 44-43 to 46-43, but a suite of questions on the leaders’ attributes produces better results for Dutton, including a 44% to 31% lead for being a strong leader. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1051.
UPDATE: Presumably paywalled report here. The poll finds 48% expect the Coalition to win the election, 18% in majority and 29% in minority, compared with 39% for Labor, 25% in minority and 14% in majority.
Labor is suffering from a worldwide cost of living crisis. It is also about to start suffering from a fall in mining revenue, which will limit its ability to spend to compensate.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-12-16/myefo-budget-update-100b-blow-to-mining-exports-deficit/104727660
Given this trend, which has been widely known for a while, the decisions of the RBA not to cut rates since the September quarter strike me as odd.
I note VoteforJulia’s comment that Chalmers could have used his power to override and cut rates. Technically it exists but practically no Treasurer has used it in the past 30 years. IMO it would be a huge political risk to do so. Cries of economic mismanagement would ring from every Murdoch, 7 and 9 news outlet.
The other option would have been larger changes to taxation policy, but Albo ruled that out from the start. That was a mistake IMO.
Aside from the obvious, the other big disappointment has been Jim Chalmers.
There’s no way Jim will sit out the next 10 or more years in opposition.
I wonder if Paul is hiring?
ScromoII @ #43 Monday, December 16th, 2024 – 8:50 am
You’re on the wrong blog if you expect any of us to believe this.
sprocket_says:
Monday, December 16, 2024 at 7:16 am
This poll does not take into account Dutton’s nuclear fiasco
_____________________
Doubt it will move the dial much.
Just heard a guy from Redbridge on the radio driving to work.
People don’t believe any form of cost modelling these days from either party.
I think Nikki Hutley would be a good choice to go on the RBA Rates Setting Board.
‘Wat Tyler says:
Monday, December 16, 2024 at 4:57 am
Don’t worry, all Labor needs is a good listicle and to call everyone else turkeys.’
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Talk about projection!
Some folk just hate the fact that Labor can build 80 emergency clinics and that the Coalition can barely cobble together two carparks and a pigeon shooting range. They hate the fact that Labor is delivering 43/30. They hate five quarters of increases in real wages.
As for Dutton’s turkeys, these same folk know perfectly well that Dutton is doing a Trump.
He is trying to take advantage of gullible people – the turkeys who vote for christmas, the ones who might be tricked into voting against their self interest. This includes veterans, sick people, old people, the parents of children in child care, people in aged care, people who need cheap housing built, the four million or so whose investment in solar panels he is going to shank, everyone who got an S3 tax cut, the millions of workers whose wages he wants to suppress, shoppers in Colesworth, people with HECs debts, and renters who have to compete with his increased numbers of students for rental accommodation.
Surely Dutton’s pathetic nuclear costings will not resonate with Teal electorates. I’d imagine that there may even be more of a swing towards Teals in these seats. Not to mention some Nationals seats where the proposed nuclear sites aren’t having the nuclear BS either. What might happen there…?
So who will the Teals side with?
Surely not the climate denying, putridly divisive and utterly incompetent Dutton?
We need to see more about how the independents are going to decide this election – over 30% are now voting independent, so 2PP is pretty much redundant at this time.
pied piper says:
Monday, December 16, 2024 at 8:24 am
Geez this poll saying voters expect libs in government via minority in a few months is dynamite.
…’
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Mushroom clouds?
Vanity Fair saying the loud part out loud:
This is terrible for Albanese and Labor, and against the appalling Dutton too. The sooner Albo gets knifed by the party, the better. I never imagined that a Labor leader could be as bad as Albanese (mind you, Starmer, of UK Labour, is even worse).
#weatheronPB
Some cool air still flows,
beneath the damp dull grey sky,
thickening slowly.
banquo911 @ #46 Monday, December 16th, 2024 – 8:52 am
I may be missing something but as far as I can tell none of the board members have their term expiring today. Of the 9 current members 4 were appointed by Albanese
Sohar @ #59 Monday, December 16th, 2024 – 9:39 am
Dutton being more trustworthy and just behind in “in touch with ordinary people” is telling. The Copacabana McMansion has had a continuing effect.
https://www.themandarin.com.au/283668-labors-mixed-record-on-policy-leaves-big-challenges-unresolved/
#SpecialForces #Space #Platforms #Missiles #CivilDefence #Drones #AI
Socrates @ #36 Monday, December 16th, 2024 – 8:11 am
Agreed. Albo should just fade into the background and let his ministers speak up. He can then resign with dignity after the election. But he should no longer be seen to completely dominate his weaker ministers like Plibersek. Bowen and Chalmers – that’s a bad look for all concerned. Nor can he be seen to be so completely dominated by vested interests like fossil fuels and gambling – that’s another bad look, even though we know it is true of both ColesWorth factions.
Given that it now seems more likely than not that the next government will be a minority one, Labor’s best chance over the next few months would be to demonstrate that they would be a better choice in such a role than the COALition. But that’s going to be hard, because they have spent this entire term trying to convince people how extreme the cross bench is and how they would never negotiate with them on anything. And most people probably now believe them. This was a foolish strategy.
They need to spend the next few months building bridges with the cross bench. But Albo is not the person to do this – given his hard line stance to date, no-one would believe it to be anything more than rank opportunism. Again, ministers like Plibersek, Chalmers and Bowen probably are probably the ones who should step up here.
All is not (yet) lost.
Andrew Charlton is Labor’s best chance.
Just sayin’
Or Jason Clare.
Charlton could get Labor back in to government.
A one term Dutton government then 10 years of Charlton Labor.
Mundo is a dreamer make no mistake.
(A gift I know)
Socrates @ #51 Monday, December 16th, 2024 – 9:26 am
Acting would have taken guts and vision. ‘Twas never going to happen under Albo. It may now be too late to prevent the economy crashing. We are going to find out the hard way.
Thank you, BK.
‘Mining exports are set to plunge more than $100bn over the next four years and deliver an $8.5bn hit to company tax receipts, representing a $36bn reversal in forecast federal revenue compared with a year ago, this week’s midyear budget update will reveal. Karren Middleton tells us that figures to be included in Wednesday’s midyear economic and fiscal outlook show China’s weaker economy is seriously hurting Australia’s mining industry, causing forecast company tax receipts to be revised downwards for the first time since 2020. This is due to the Treasury downgrading its four-year forecast for mineral exports by more than $100bn.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/dec/16/mining-exports-could-plunge-100bn-over-four-years-slashing-36bn-from-federal-revenue-myefo-suggests‘
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I have said all along that we will never get AUKUS because the value of the majority of exports would collapse.
It could be argued that the current downward trend is cyclical but there are good reasons against this view. The first is that China’s construction boom is over. The second is that all our east asian customers face drastic falls in populations. The third is that renewable energy will replace some of our exports. The fourth is China’s strategy of developing alternative supplies. The fifth is that our ag commodity exports are exposed to global warming.
The corollary is, of course, that if you think things in Australia are bad now, just wait until the bottom really drops out of our exports
Tsk, Tsk.
Labor seriously lost the opportunity to let some random Greens backbenchers, or better, some Bludger economic experts to set the interest rate.
It’s strange Mundo’s anger at Labor’s political incompetence has bestowed on Mundo a kind devil may care acceptance of an incoming Dutton government. It’s like Mundo has skipped the first three steps and gone straight to the last two.
those values / attributes questions are damning
That Peter dutton, of all people, is rating higher than Albo on every question except for being in touch with ordinary people and being easy to talk to, FMD
What a waste of a term of government
hopefully being in minority might produce at least some cartilage, if not an actual spine, and he might be forced to implement some actual policy. Or will he do a bec white in Tasmania and refuse to talk to the crossbench and so hand government to the coalition?
For a crowd of avid poll consumers, there’s a lot of you here (the usual suspects) with ants in your pants over a 51-49 which, as we all know, means nothing, or Shorten would have been PM (and probably would still be, as he would have made a much better PM than both Morrison and Albanese).
Seriously, pull it together people!
Governments lose elections. Oppositions don’t win them.
As the LNP did in 2022. It was not Labor or Albo’s charisma, vision ( unlike the Rudd win in 2007) that gave Labor the seats.
Labor doesn’t do vision anymore. They kept all of Howard’s and Morrisons policies. With no indication of real change except some fiddling around the edges. Still support the USA, business, wealthy Australians as a priority.
Labor Right faction Chalmers was interviewed on ABC radio RN this morning by Sally Sara. A pity she didn’t ask him about the over 3 million Australians, increased by over 30% since Labor was elected, living in poverty, homelessness or with food insecurity.
If he would raise Jobseeker or Youth Allowance. Cost of living pressures not in reality addressed, many full time workers on low incomes can barely or not at all find a place to rent, and never buy.
This is not the Australian Way.
We know Labor, Claire O’Neil supports keeping house prices high. Just like Howard.
Claire O’Neil
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-12-14/housing-minister-says-house-prices-shouldnt-fall/104724144?utm_source=abc_news_app&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_campaign=abc_news_app&utm_content=other
And:
A small Victorian tourist town of 2,600 people has 100 properties for sale. Many wanting over $1million. And very few properties to rent at an affordable price. What’s going on in Bright?
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/dec/16/a-small-victorian-tourist-town-of-2600-people-has-100-properties-for-sale-whats-going-on-in-bright?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
People writing here give suggestions to Labor, Labor will not pay any attention.
Chalmers championed how he is reducing the debt. I wonder if the debt has steadily increased with the Howard model, that Labor prefers, of many businesses paid generous taxpayer money to run aged care, child care, NDIS, job providers, …
Instead of an increased public service. Preschool child education should be an extension of the public school system. Not run by businesses.
Also hard to know if preferences based on the May 2022 election outcome are valid predicting in current opinion polling. Now Labor is the government people can see what a Labor government means. And their particular interests may not be what Labor has done.
It will be interesting if Chalmers and most other Labor MPs have their votes diminished in line with how their electorate voted for The Voice. I would expect the LNP to use a similar strategy for the coming election.
In most elections LNP advertising in the early weeks usually increases their opinion polling vote. Meaning the LNP may draw further ahead.
Seeing Dutton perceived as more trustworthy is utter brainrot. I do personally believe the only metric that counts other than voting intention is preferred Prime Minister.
I hope Labour actually learns from the Democratic party overseas and picks a target to bash over the head, and it can’t be the opposition. Attack the banks, attack Colesworth. Universal Childcare is a great start but things like grocery prices has jolted well and truly above inflation. If they spent time pursuing these companies, then dim Dutton would oppose it, leaving him open to attack, just like the migration reductions did. Small target Albo was fine for Scott but we need fighting tories Albo. If Dutton and his odious crew get in we are cooked, and I shudder to think what havoc Jacinta Price would wreck upon Indigenous People when in charge
‘Pageboi says:
Monday, December 16, 2024 at 10:00 am
those values / attributes questions are damning
…’
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Damning, but of what?
Remind the last time in the last three years that any of the Murdochracy, Stokes, etc, etc, made a single criticism of Dutton. Albanese gets a wall-to-wall daily slagging.
Dutton is bought and paid for.
The headline results for the Freshwater poll are there for all to see. It is what it is.
I do find it interesting that Dutton is in front of Albanese on all but two leader attributes yet Albanese has extended his lead as PPM over Dutton. I ask myself why would that be so ? Is it simply a matter of trying to compare apples and oranges with respondents more interested in looking at the whole package and not just individual traits ? What is PPM actually a measure of in the eyes of those respondents ?
Or perhaps it simply means jack shit !
Cheers and a great day to all
UK Cartoons and other miscellany
Ella Baron
Patrick Blower
Andy Bunday
Morten Morland
Christian Adams
Matt
Ben Jennings
Dave Brown #RoguesGallery (Background: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckg8xdjexrvo)
The original 1929 Magritte “La Trahison des Images” (“The treachery of images”)
Graeme Bandiera
The New Yorker Barbara Smaller
The New Yorker Adam Douglas Thompson
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Stolen from the internet
One of my favourites, once again, explaining the genesis of the “Vimes” Index.
Without a deep analysis of what’s gone wrong for Albo, it seems that the PMship has made him cranky and that’s coming through all his media appearances. Voters dont like snarky, they like cool calm and collected.
We need these two at the top of the order
‘Mostly Interested says:
Monday, December 16, 2024 at 10:10 am
Without a deep analysis of what’s gone wrong for Albo, it seems that the PMship has made him cranky and that’s coming through all his media appearances. …’
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You may have missed his latest Insiders appearance. Jovial. Good humoured. Etc.
Of course the Murdoch gotcha merchants who give Dutton the belly rub and then try to catch Albanese out on anything at all…
The trend is not Labor’s friend. Come the election it seems like a Coalition majority is the most likely outcome. I hope I’m wrong, but Labor kind of also deserve to be voted out for their spinelessness.
Another poor netsat. Today minus 17. This mirrors the recent newspoll which produced minus 14.
This, too, is getting baked in. It’s looking like the public have made up their minds and are determined to sink the boot in.
Can’t see any leadership change as it’s getting to close to election time. Having said that, the last possible date is Saturday 27-Sep-2025, but this is for the House only. The senate must face the electors by 17 or 24 May-2025. This scenario is ridiculous.
Looks like the last roll of the dice is realistically a “big bang budget”.
I’m still tipping minority ALP gov’t with a combination of Greens and some indies.
We all know which way the Greens will swing.
Pressure will come on the Teals & other indies over summer.
We’ll have another Morgan at around 5PM today. This should provide a small bounceback for Labor. Was 28 last week, so should bounce back up as it tends to after a drop.
Douglas and Milko @ #76 Monday, December 16th, 2024 – 9:38 am
Of course, if the man in this scenario decided to save a bit of money up and buy the nice boots, those who try to deny poverty would claim that he’s clearly not financially struggling if he can afford to buy such nice boots and walk around in them every day while another cohort of unhelpful people will patronisingly claim that he wouldn’t be so poor if he managed his money better and didn’t waste it on frivolous purchases like nice boots.
The poor can’t win.
Gee, on the basis of one poll which has a group of ‘undecideds’ at some 16% the Liberal Luvies are already measuring the curtains for the Lodge for “Hard Working” “Strong Leader” Dutton.
And to complement the LL above we have Labor Nervous Nellies attacking the party they so say support.
Of course, Federal Labor would like to be in the same position as WA State Labor – on the road to perhaps another thumping victory against the local Tories.
If it all goes according to Hoyle, Federal Labor will also win enough support at the next election to form government.
The coming election will be a strange one, in that the days of the Liberals/Labor domination the voting appear to be over.
Beyond this, everything is mere speculation.
Jim Chalmers is not a leader. He hasn’t used his powers over fiscal, regulatory, and monetary policy to achieve widespread improvement in people’s material conditions of living. He had the chance but he blew it, partly from ignorance, partly from cowardice. He has shown time and time again that he WILL NOT FIGHT for the Australian people. Nobody votes for that guy.
https://www.themandarin.com.au/283701-former-high-court-judge-to-run-new-robodebt-referral-review-for-nacc/, surely community expectations after a RC would have been for the NACC/ APSC to refer or go for charging/ prosecution …
On the timid interpretation, https://t.co/1smSoLhE9G
#Robodebt #RC #NACC #ErsatzfICACCIC #AFP #DPP #ISG #EminentPerson #LawyersPicnic #MajorPartiesDuopoly
Yet another issue for the gov to minimise the damage on, increase credibility though relevancy after this long remains to be seen, limp into minority fed gov, perhaps with an update to the front bench, ahem take the fight to the right of centre extreme disaster capitalists, I guess like over in America any change of PM now doesn’t leave much more time than Kamala Harris got, oops
MJ – I can see that this Coalition majority idea seems to be gaining traction around here, but where do you see them winning the nearly 20 seats they’ll need to do so? Polling suggests a swing of around 2-3%, which (if uniform) would lose Labor about 5 seats. Where are the other 15 seats coming from?
If people think the cost of living crisis is bad now. Wait till it goes nuclear under Dutton. A win by the LNP would mean a lot of their mates would be owed favours. So expect massive budget blow outs too. As more millionaires get to be billionaires under a Dutton led Government of debt and deficit. The rich will be getting richer and it will be the poor paying for it, As that has always been the LNP way. It is Montgomery Burns and not Homer Simpson that would be better off under Dutton.
Hey mj – saw your post late last night about QLD after I dropped off.
I’ll get back to you later with my amateur opinion.
There’s a couple of really good posters on the site today who were active on the QLD threads a couple of months ago, and I’m sure they’ll have an opinion too on the state of QLD politics.
The corporate watchdog is suing multinational banking giant HSBC over a scam that netted $23 million, alleging it failed to protect 950 Australian customers from a long-running “spoofing” scam.
The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) lodged the claim against HSBC’s Australian arm in the federal court today, with details showing the global scam had a much bigger local impact than first thought. The action relates to 950 reports alleging scammers netted $23 million over nearly five years from January 2020 to August 2024.
Some customers lost more than $90,000 each with scam reports peaking in the period between October 2023 and March 2024.
Australians are continuing to lose their life savings to a long-running “spoofing” scam targeting customers of banking giant HSBC. ASIC Deputy Chair Sarah Court alleged the bank’s failings were “widespread and systemic”.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-12-16/asic-sue-hsbc-court-finance-banking-scam-customer-protection/104690472
As I posted earlier the Freshwater poll results are there for all to see. Not interested in debating the “ highs and lows “ of this poll and the end of Albanese and labor etc etc. It is what it is.
I am interested , however, in getting some feedback ( especially from the gloom merchants ) as to why they think given Albanese and this government are so disliked by Australians the Freshwater polling is not worse and why Albanese has extended his lead as PPM.
Given we are now in the straight leading up to the election why has Dutton not been able to sprint clear and be miles in front of such a inept and disliked PM ?
Cheers to all.
Hugo it’s a fair point, but if the Coalition is on track for say a 2PP of 52 or 53% the seats would likely materialise somewhere to get them close enough to, or a majority govt. I think Labor is going to do especially badly in mortgage belt areas, areas they tend to hold reasonably comfortably, whether they can cling on to enough of these seats maybe is the key to whether they can cling on to minority govt.
Hi Nadia, would be interested in your’s and others opinions on the discussions we were having about Brisbane last night.
51 to 49 is not dire for a government. Incumbency tends to be an advantage closer to the election. Plus there is likely to be a budget to bribe the electorate with.
A hung parliament is still more likely than a Labor majority win, and that is still more likely than a majority LNP government. The LNP is not doing that much to rewin the “teal” seats, aiming for ALP seats in a hope to smash the “red wall” (a term I despise).
Doyley, how much worse would you like it to be for albanese’s labor party? If less than 27% coming down from almost 33% at the previous election doesn’t represent just about as bad an outcome as you like, then what does? What would be low enough to have you rattled? Is there no limit to how low labor can poll that you’d feel good about?
The PPM vs voting intention really don’t have to be tracking together – One can simultaneously think that dutton is a POS, but prefer an lnp govt. In fact that seems to apply to the majority who live outside of QLD – who one assumes think both that dutton is a effin ledge, and would prefer an lnp government (myself excluded).
‘Jim Chalmers is not a leader’.
I see that now.
Had high hopes for him, and Albo.
Where do I go for a refund.
There is only one legitimate reason for an Australian to have a Cayman Island bank account. If you believe Angus Taylor will be the next Treasurer. Even Angus probably has his money there, just in case it eventuates.
We get it, mundo. We. Get. It.
One note mundo, with variations.
Some are calling for Albo to step down – and he would have to step down, there is zero appetite within Labor for anything approaching the RGR times again.
The some would fall into a few categories
1. The obvious Liberal trolls like Lars, who are simply playing the old leadership speculation schtick.
2. The well meaning but deluded Leftists who think anything short of full on socialism is a sellout.
3. Labor people spooked by the first 2 categories.
I think it’s pretty simple why Labor’s polling is dire. People feel they are being locked out of home ownership, or even affordable renting – material outcomes are going backwards in their lives, and fast. Obviously this is not a simple problem to address but what Labor has done, tinkering here and there is far from enough. Allowing a record number of migrants in has only added fuel to this bonfire. It’s pretty obvious the LNP wouldn’t be any better on this front but alot of people won’t care they’re angry at this govt and will vote against it.
I think the centrists who think things can continue as is without serious political fallout are the deluded ones, have a look at how Mr Trudeaus Liberals are going in Canada.