Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)

One of the final polls for the year records no change in voting intention from a month ago.

The Financial Review reports the final monthly Freshwater Strategy poll for the year (no link as of yet) has voting intention results identical to last time, with the Coalition leading 51-49 from primary votes of Labor 30%, Coalition 40%, Greens 14% and others 16%. Anthony Albanese is at 34% approval and 51% disapproval, up one on both counts, while Peter Dutton is steady on 37% and down one to 40%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister widens from 44-43 to 46-43, but a suite of questions on the leaders’ attributes produces better results for Dutton, including a 44% to 31% lead for being a strong leader. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1051.

UPDATE: Presumably paywalled report here. The poll finds 48% expect the Coalition to win the election, 18% in majority and 29% in minority, compared with 39% for Labor, 25% in minority and 14% in majority.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,146 comments on “Freshwater Strategy: 51-49 to Coalition (open thread)”

Comments Page 1 of 23
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  1. I’m up for a stream of sugar-coated posts.
    The Australian voter is on average thick as two short planks.
    Dutton’s a shoe-in.
    Make the adjustment now.
    It’s easier on your mental health.

  2. Mundo,
    I expect Australia will go down the same drain hole as the USA and elect a complete dud, which Liberal Party leader Dutton most assuredly is. As a Progressive, I now prefer to be pleasantly surprised than deeply disappointed, and a certain amount of cynicism is a good defence against the attacks by the deplorables, especially the wealthy ones.

  3. The thing that sticks out for me as a real problem, should it start being reflected in all future polling is that the Coalition’s primary vote is edging into the 40s. I’ve said previously that the one thing that Labor has in its favour is that, although its primary vote is woefully low (in the past it would most definitely cause a massive defeat), the Coalition’s primary vote is also low, meaning that it can still salvage a good 2PP (although, preferences being the fickle things they are, it could go the other way.)

    However, I also observed that the low Coalition primary is a dam that the water is crashing very heavily against and, should that dam burst, you are going to see really ugly numbers for Labor. While I try not to react to singular polls, if this is a portent of 2024, it could be a very bad time for Labor.

    We’re on the cusp of Christmas, so it’s just about pencils down for the year but Albanese and Labor will have a lot of work cut out for them come January. I expect there will be a lot of calling people “bedwetters” and “nervous nellies” next year.

  4. Is Israeli leadership increasing its anti semitic stance?

    “ Israel will close its embassy in Dublin due to what it claims is the “extreme anti-Israel policies of the Irish government”, Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said on Sunday, citing Ireland’s recognition of a Palestinian state and its support of legal action against Israel. behavior?”

    https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/israel-to-close-irish-embassy-citing-extreme-anti-israel-policies-20241216-p5kyk3.html

  5. We’re on the cusp of Christmas, so it’s just about pencils down for the year but Albanese and Labor will have a lot of work cut out for them come January.

    I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. The thing they can start doing it selling their achievements more. Why isn’t Albo out every day talking about cheaper childcare? Or building more childcare in places where there’s a childcare desert? We’ve heard maybe twice about the payrises for educators (as problematic as this is), and aged care workers, and that’s it.

    Biden soured with voters not just because of his age, but because he wasn’t capable of communicating with voters about all the great things his administration did. Now Trump is going to reap all the benefits to the economy that Biden should be getting credit for. Albo seems to be cut from the same cloth, and at this rate it will be Dutton who claims the benefits from the Labor government’s efforts.

  6. Freshwater poll is lib/nats leaning poll

    The average federal opinion polling still haven’t moved from

    Labor primary vote 32/33%
    Lib/nats combined primary 37/38%

    Will Peter Dutton remain in politics when the federal lib/nats are still in opposition after 2025 May federal election

    Can not see him being federal liberal party leader if the Lib/nats do not improve on their seats they hold in the house of reps , which is currently 55 seats

  7. One thing this government are terrible at is communication, and like it or not, Dutton will always have the Murdoch media empire as his cheersquad.
    Albanese, Bowen, Wong, Burke all look like yesterday’s people, federal Labor could do with someone who resonates in a media sense as well as Chris Minns or Peter Maulinauskas does at state level. Federal Labor has the talent on the backbench, why not more of Dan Repacholi or Sam Rae or Jerome Laxale or Andrew Charlton or Gordon Reid?

  8. Sceptic
    It will be interesting to see if the newly elected Dáil now proceeds with the Occupied Territories Bill which was initially tabled in 2018 and was a minor issue in the recent election with eventually all major parties agreeing to proceed. The Bill imposes a boycott on all goods and services produced in the occupied territories. I think that the closure of the embassy will increase the Irish government’s appetite for the bill.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occupied_Territories_Bill#:~:text=The%20bill%20would%20ban%20any,temporarily%2C%20beyond%20the%20Green%20Line.

  9. The government needs to find what people hate (banks, real estate agents, Colesworth, big business) and start attacking it. Albo needs to go hard and make Dutton look like he is pro suffering of white australians, and he can ask the affected parties for forgiveness once he wins the election.

  10. I wouldn’t be surprised if Albo announces his retirement in January and hands over to Lucky Jim.

    He’ll look better handing over than taking them to a first term defeat.

  11. Another vaccine denialist is proposed to head the CDC.

    Question for these people: if vaccines are so unsafe, why have literally billions of people all around the world benefited from vaccination over the decades?

    Kennedy proposed Weldon for the job, according to a person involved in the process who spoke on the condition of anonymity to share a private conversation.

    Weldon’s past record of promoting the disproven link between vaccines and autism in the face of overwhelming scientific evidence attesting to the safety and efficacy of vaccines raises concerns among some public health experts about his ability to run the CDC. If confirmed, Weldon could undermine confidence in the lifesaving shots at a time when infectious-disease threats such as measles and whooping cough are on the rise, they say.

    A Washington Post review of Weldon’s public comments, media appearances and congressional letters along with accounts of those who worked with him reveal a portrait of a politician and physician who emphasized the experiences of individuals while dismissing dozens of studies based on data from hundreds of thousands of patients that showed no link between vaccines and autism.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/12/15/dave-weldon-trump-cdc-vaccine-skepticism/

  12. Another status quo poll – clearly things have settled into something close to a 50/50 scenario for several months. If this comes to pass on election day, this will mean a swing of about 2% on the 2022 election, which would see Labor lose about 4-5 seats, but still remain the largest party and the only party capable of forming a minority government.

  13. Elon Musk’s net worth has climbed by more than $200 billion in 2024, a massive increase in the same year that the world’s richest person spent at least $277 million backing Donald Trump and other Republican candidates.

    Get a curated selection of 10 of our best stories in your inbox every weekend.
    The bulk of the increase, more than $170 billion, has come since Election Day.

    Trump’s election sent stock in electric automaker Tesla, a company central to Musk’s wealth and where he is CEO, soaring. Shares were trading at prices around 70 percent higher on Friday than on Election Day.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/12/15/elon-musk-trump-election-wealth/

    The next Trump presidency is going to be known for its hyper grifting. Everyone wants on the gravy train. Pity the poor voters who bought his bullshit that he would enrich them, not just the big end of town.

  14. Lars Von Trier @ #14 Monday, December 16th, 2024 – 6:23 am

    I wouldn’t be surprised if Albo announces his retirement in January and hands over to Lucky Jim.

    He’ll look better handing over than taking them to a first term defeat.

    In that scenario, would Chalmers even want such a poisoned chalice? Maybe a few months ago when he’d have time to establish himself as PM and define his government as different from the predecessor but in January? It would just feel like he’s been set up as the fall guy.

    Then again, PM is PM, and it’s still a better achievement to be PM even for just a couple of months than to only be one of many Opposition Leaders.

  15. I suppose if he were to hit the ground running, offer a radically different budget etc., he might be able to sufficiently distance yourself. I dunno. This scenario is a bit far-fetched at this point.

  16. Good morning Dawn Patrollers

    Labor can’t make a thing stick to Dutton, the Mr Teflon of empty politics, writes Sean Kelly who thinks it is possible that he has benefited from a disturbing new phase in our politics, in which details don’t matter. A good read.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/labor-can-t-make-a-thing-stick-to-dutton-the-mr-teflon-of-empty-politics-20241215-p5kyhy.html
    Independents whose votes would be crucial in a hung parliament say they are unconvinced by Leader Peter Dutton’s nuclear power plan as Jim Chalmers said the Coalition’s costings relied on the Australian economy losing $4 trillion by 2050. Natassia Chrysanthos says that yesterday Chalmers blasted the “economic insanity” behind the opposition’s modelling for seven new nuclear power plants, saying it assumed the economy would be $294 billion smaller and that Australians would use 40 per cent less electricity than the government’s forecasts by the middle of the century.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-s-nuclear-plan-assumes-4-trillion-loss-to-economy-chalmers-20241215-p5kygy.html
    Mining exports are set to plunge more than $100bn over the next four years and deliver an $8.5bn hit to company tax receipts, representing a $36bn reversal in forecast federal revenue compared with a year ago, this week’s midyear budget update will reveal. Karren Middleton tells us that figures to be included in Wednesday’s midyear economic and fiscal outlook show China’s weaker economy is seriously hurting Australia’s mining industry, causing forecast company tax receipts to be revised downwards for the first time since 2020. This is due to the Treasury downgrading its four-year forecast for mineral exports by more than $100bn.
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/dec/16/mining-exports-could-plunge-100bn-over-four-years-slashing-36bn-from-federal-revenue-myefo-suggests
    Liberal moderates were in the ‘winner’s circle’ under Turnbull. It’s a different story now, writes James Massola.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/liberal-moderates-were-in-the-winner-s-circle-under-turnbull-it-s-a-different-story-now-20241212-p5ky21.html
    Where have all the liberal Libs gone? This is Dutton’s cue to learn from Howard, writes George Brandis.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/where-have-all-the-liberal-libs-gone-this-is-dutton-s-cue-to-learn-from-howard-20241213-p5ky8y.html
    If someone says the opposition’s financial case shows that nuclear is cheaper than firmed renewables, all other things equal, then that person is lying, writes Stephen Hamilton for the AFR.
    https://www.afr.com/policy/energy-and-climate/economics-of-coalition-s-nuclear-modelling-are-worth-nothing-20241214-p5kydg
    The Coalition’s nuclear costings and their rubbery assumptions take us back to being a climate pariah, declares Nicki Hutley who says that despite a clever comms strategy, there are significant credibility issues around the assumptions on which the cost estimates are based.
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/dec/15/the-coalitions-nuclear-costings-and-their-rubbery-assumptions-take-us-back-to-being-a-climate-pariah
    Ross Gittins says that voters are blaming one man for rising energy bills while big companies get away with gouging. This is quite an illuminating contribution.
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/voters-blame-one-man-for-rising-energy-bills-while-companies-get-away-with-gouging-20241215-p5kyh7.html
    A majority of voters believe Australia will have a minority government after the next election, and there is an expectation Peter Dutton will be in charge, the latest The Australian Financial Review/Freshwater Strategy poll shows. Phil Coorey reports on the latest Freshwater Strategypoll.
    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/voters-bracing-for-minority-government-and-dutton-to-lead-poll-20241215-p5kyg9
    Henrietta Cook, Broede Carmody and Carla Jaeger tell us that an anti-corruption probe into one of the state’s busiest hospitals is examining claims that surgeons charged the Transport Accident Commission for operating on multiple patients at the same time. Throw the book at these leeches!
    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/really-disgusting-surgeons-probed-over-operating-on-multiple-tac-patients-at-same-time-20241214-p5kyei.html
    Two executives made a $17.6 million windfall following an options buy-back; weeks later the Kogan share price crashed. The regulator is now looking into the saga, reports Carrie LaFrenz. Looks quite a bit naughty!
    https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/retailer-kogan-cooperating-with-asic-over-options-deal-probe-20241213-p5ky9e
    It’s a $20B plus submarine mess, atop the well-known $368B AUKUS submarine mess-in-development. Rex Patrick reveals the national security disaster of Collins Class submarines.
    https://michaelwest.com.au/collins-class-national-security-debacle-on-top-of-aukus/
    NSW Police have confirmed they are investigating Islamophobic graffiti spray-painted in a western Sydney suburb, in an incident Premier Chris Minns labelled “completely abhorrent”, reports Michael McGowan.
    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/islamophobic-graffiti-in-sydney-s-west-condemned-as-abhorrent-20241215-p5kyib.html
    Peter Dutton’s hyperbolic denunciation of Australia reinforcing existing policy on Palestine, along with its allies, attracts allegations of playing local politics. These claims miss the dog whistle, writes Michael Pascoe who reckons Dutton is channelling Trump..
    https://michaelwest.com.au/channeling-trump-dark-motives-behind-duttons-gaza-dog-whistle/
    Israel will close its embassy in Dublin due to what it claims is the “extreme anti-Israel policies of the Irish government”, Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said on Sunday, citing Ireland’s recognition of a Palestinian state and its support of legal action against Israel.
    https://www.smh.com.au/world/middle-east/israel-to-close-irish-embassy-citing-extreme-anti-israel-policies-20241216-p5kyk3.html

    Cartoon Corner

    Peter Broelman

    Joe Benke

    Matt Golding

    A gif from Glen Le Lievre
    https://x.com/i/status/1867734923135922514
    Badiucao

    Mark Knight


    Leak

    From the US
















  17. Largish others at 16% !
    What’s in that PHON, Palmer, Teals……

    The Liberals are to come up short similar to the last election and the independents will take a swag of seats, perhaps more than the last election.

    Murdoch, Nine and Sky together with the compromised ABC to maintain their unhelpful “nose ring” influence over an increasingly disinterested and weary voting public.

    [The government needs to find what people hate (banks, real estate agents, Colesworth, big business) and start
    attacking it]

    People hate politicians more than any other group !

    A good leader will give the public a break till the end of January

  18. Probs Wat, it is too late – shoulda been October.

    Still if he handed over, Lucky Jim would have a chance to re-set the narrative as in do things he’s supposedly been blocked from doing.

    Rightly or wrongly there’s a fair amount of rejection of Albo out there – as shown by his net sats.

  19. Lars Von Trier @ #24 Monday, December 16th, 2024 – 6:53 am

    Rightly or wrongly there’s a fair amount of rejection of Albo out there – as shown by his net sats.

    Oh yeah, I can attest (albeit anecdotally) that there’s a lot of hatred for him personally out there right now, and I’m not talking about in right wing or far left circles.

  20. Confessionssays:
    Monday, December 16, 2024 at 6:14 am
    We’re on the cusp of Christmas, so it’s just about pencils down for the year but Albanese and Labor will have a lot of work cut out for them come January.

    I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. The thing they can start doing it selling their achievements more. Why isn’t Albo out every day talking about cheaper childcare? Or building more childcare in places where there’s a childcare desert? We’ve heard maybe twice about the payrises for educators (as problematic as this is), and aged care workers, and that’s it.

    Biden soured with voters not just because of his age, but because he wasn’t capable of communicating with voters about all the great things his administration did. Now Trump is going to reap all the benefits to the economy that Biden should be getting credit for. Albo seems to be cut from the same cloth, and at this rate it will be Dutton who claims the benefits from the Labor government’s efforts
    ________________
    I couldn’t disagree more with this. Firstly because I feel this is already the strategy (along with blaming others for stalled legislation). Secondly, telling people how good they already have it when they don’t feel it is condescending and out of touch. It gives “job done”.

    The agenda for season 1 was light. They need to be laying out the bold agenda for next go round rather than focusing on piddling wins that don’t touch most voters.

    I also think, per Trump and article 1 from bk (thank you bk) that a negative campaign attacking Dutto and the lnp isn’t gonna get labor anywhere, but just convince more joe rogan listeners (most popular podcast in aust) to vote lnp.

    It can only be a positive, bold, and easily understood reform agenda.

  21. There’s a fair consensus that we are heading for some form of minority govt. I wonder how much thinking has gone into what and how a minority govt would be in operation ?

    I would expect the teals for one wouldn’t just sign up to confidence and supply – but would expect any new government to agree to a legislative program focused on environment and tax reforms.

    For the ALP presumably it wouldn’t want to be signing up to Gillard 2.0 – that must inevitably mean a new leader in minority govt to reset.

  22. Independents whose votes would be crucial in a hung parliament say they are unconvinced by Leader Peter Dutton’s nuclear power plan as Jim Chalmers said the Coalition’s costings relied on the Australian economy losing $4 trillion by 2050. Natassia Chrysanthos says that yesterday Chalmers blasted the “economic insanity” behind the opposition’s modelling for seven new nuclear power plants, saying it assumed the economy would be $294 billion smaller and that Australians would use 40 per cent less electricity than the government’s forecasts by the middle of the century.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-s-nuclear-plan-assumes-4-trillion-loss-to-economy-chalmers-20241215-p5kygy.html

    Jim Chalmers getting the soundbites tight.

  23. C@tmommasays:
    Monday, December 16, 2024 at 7:44 am
    Independents whose votes would be crucial in a hung parliament say they are unconvinced by Leader Peter Dutton’s nuclear power plan as Jim Chalmers said the Coalition’s costings relied on the Australian economy losing $4 trillion by 2050. Natassia Chrysanthos says that yesterday Chalmers blasted the “economic insanity” behind the opposition’s modelling for seven new nuclear power plants, saying it assumed the economy would be $294 billion smaller and that Australians would use 40 per cent less electricity than the government’s forecasts by the middle of the century.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-s-nuclear-plan-assumes-4-trillion-loss-to-economy-chalmers-20241215-p5kygy.html

    Jim Chalmers getting the soundbites tight
    ______________
    Its an alright soundbite. I’d drop the ‘economic insanity’ line. Attacks like this aren’t going to stick to Teflon. Talking about the bad outcomes from duts policies is a good idea though – “under the lnps energy plan, Australians will be forced to ration their electricity – only being able to use half the power as under labor – or face rolling blackouts”. It’d get fact checked, but those don’t really matter

  24. Hugoaugogo @ #16 Monday, December 16th, 2024 – 7:02 am

    Another status quo poll – clearly things have settled into something close to a 50/50 scenario for several months. If this comes to pass on election day, this will mean a swing of about 2% on the 2022 election, which would see Labor lose about 4-5 seats, but still remain the largest party and the only party capable of forming a minority government.

    Exactly. And even if this scenario were to eventuate does anyone really think any Teal would sign up to go with the Radioactive Coalition? Any Greens MP? Andrew Wilkie? Helen Haines?

    I do wish BK would let us know what Rebekha Sharkie’s thinking is about a hung parliament though!?!

  25. Banquo911 @ #31 Monday, December 16th, 2024 – 7:53 am

    C@tmommasays:
    Monday, December 16, 2024 at 7:44 am
    Independents whose votes would be crucial in a hung parliament say they are unconvinced by Leader Peter Dutton’s nuclear power plan as Jim Chalmers said the Coalition’s costings relied on the Australian economy losing $4 trillion by 2050. Natassia Chrysanthos says that yesterday Chalmers blasted the “economic insanity” behind the opposition’s modelling for seven new nuclear power plants, saying it assumed the economy would be $294 billion smaller and that Australians would use 40 per cent less electricity than the government’s forecasts by the middle of the century.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/dutton-s-nuclear-plan-assumes-4-trillion-loss-to-economy-chalmers-20241215-p5kygy.html

    Jim Chalmers getting the soundbites tight
    ______________
    Its an alright soundbite. I’d drop the ‘economic insanity’ line. Attacks like this aren’t going to stick to Teflon. Talking about the bad outcomes from duts policies is a good idea though – “under the lnps energy plan, Australians will be forced to ration their electricity – only being able to use half the power as under labor – or face rolling blackouts”. It’d get fact checked, but those don’t really matter

    I’d also start adding the old Tony Abbott line to the attacks against the Coalition and have every Labor MP saying, ‘Under Peter Dutton’s plan your power bills are going to go up and up and up!’

  26. “One thing this government are terrible at is communication, and like it or not, Dutton will always have the Murdoch media empire as his cheersquad.”

    @Democracy Sausage

    Apparently Albanese has now finally had enough of Newscorp its been reported. The thing is Peter Dutton has done nothing to show he’s worthy that he is Prime Minister material. I don’t buy that Dutton has played his cards right or he’s doing anything to cut through. Labor has left back to back surpluses, and yet Newscorp is whingeing about Albo playing tennis. Murdoch is trying to put another Tony Abbott in to the lodge, someone who clearly was incapable of being Prime Minister. Dutton is cut from the same cloth.

    “Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has called out the influence of News Corp’s alleged bias, warning colleagues during a cabinet meeting that Rupert Murdoch’s media empire was openly working to back Opposition Leader Peter Dutton.

    Four cabinet sources said that in Monday’s meeting, Albanese said News Corp’s newspapers – which include The Australian and city tabloids – and the Coalition were increasingly “working together” on similar lines of Labor criticism months out from the election.

    One cabinet source said Albanese was firm and matter-of-fact as he reflected on the tactics of the conservative press in recent months as Labor has continued its slow downward polling trend.

    “He said News Corp and the opposition were now working hand in glove and that this was an embedded part of the political dynamic that we all needed to deal with,” one source said.

    A different minister emphasised that Albanese’s remarks were not a self-pitying “sook-up” in a similar vein to comments made in an October ministerial meeting, first reported by this masthead, in which he complained about criticism of his flight upgrades.

    “It was about the fact that they are openly cheerleading now and not even pretending to be balanced. Every little thing is being blown up into epic proportions,” the minister said.”

    https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/federal/news-corp-out-to-get-us-albanese-20241210-p5kx8u.html

  27. It’s not a comms issue – implicit in that line is the govts been great.

    Fundamentally the govt missed the moment – when peeps wanted big initiatives they went small.

    Ironically – the one big thing they did – the voice – went against them largely because they couldn’t or wouldn’t make the case instead going for the vibe – who can forget Albo saying it was about good manners?

    I’m guessing in the new year Dutton will release a housing policy which will look big which will exacerbate this issue for the government.

    O’Neill is playing catch up with promises of accelerating the woeful haff but it’s hard to do much in the last 10 mins which moves the dial.

  28. Morning all and thanks for the roundup BK. The poll is a grim read for Labor. It is no worse than last time, but that was bad enough.

    On these primary votes and the huge Other % (which badly needs pollsters to start breaking it down) it looks like minority government either way.

    Labor is much better pace to hold government in a minority than Dutton, given that I think the personal and policy differences between Dutton and most of the Independents (not just Teals) are irreconcilable.

    I think it is definitely too late for Albo to step down without causing further damage. If he did I think Chalmers or Jason Clare are the obvious alternatives. I would say Chalmers because he would help Labor’s vote in Qld. Labor needs the whole Cabinet, not just Albo, to sell its achievements, which are real.

    Not only has Labor got achievements to sell, but Dutton has no credible policy other than expressing negativity. Nothing Dutton has proposed will help with the cost of living, and this needs to be repeated every day. As Biden proved, you can run the economy well and still lose.

  29. Geez this poll saying voters expect libs in government via minority in a few months is dynamite.
    Dutton remember was on about not standing under the aboriginal flag and nuclear this poll period and labor was well being labor acting like they are in opposition and not setting the narrative due to weak leadership .Failure to get immigration down got media coverage as well.Also attacks on Jews.

    Clare O’Neill get her away from media,treasurer as well geez in the months ahead Labor including this Weds mid budget update are going to be talking about deficits for years.
    Coalition me thinks will have a happy Christmas looking like winners fed labor were 57-43 up now behind 49-51 trend says they can lose .

    Voters may of stopped listening to labor as well given the coming economic news that maybe an advantage!

    State breakdown aka VIC will be interesting still think WA is not as good for labor.

  30. “I would say Chalmers because he would help Labor’s vote in Qld. Labor needs the whole Cabinet, not just Albo, to sell its achievements, which are real.”

    @Socrates

    QLD has been a frustration for Labor ever since the southern Gillard backers thought it was smart to run a coup against Rudd. After Gillard opportunistically called a snap election and threw away 8 seats in Queensland in 2010 the party has never recovered. I’m not suggesting installing Jim Chalmers as leader is the answer but just acknowledging the state like WA before the 2022 federal election has been tough to budge.

  31. I do wish BK would let us know what Rebekha Sharkie’s thinking is about a hung parliament though!?!
    ________
    C@t
    Hopefully I will see her in early January and will broach the subject if appropriate.

  32. I tell you right now, nothing would make me vote against Labor faster than them telling the rest of this country to go fuck itself in a pathetic, cynical and identarian attempt to try and win favour with Australia’s Florida.

    There are plenty of valid reasons for making Chalmers leader, the precious feelings of QLDers is not one of them.

  33. Now coalition who are miles ahead in polling on subject of who is better to manage the economy will look on as treasurer tries to scare the public with Chinas effect on budget and the coalition will know treasurer is just driving more people to vote coalition.
    Who is advising labor?

  34. A Dutton Coalition government will be elected with more than 80 HoR seats and 2pp of 53+

    Polls ALWAYS overestimate the leftward major party. The REAL primaries are Labor 26, Coalition 44.

    Unlike in 2023, handing over to Chalmers will NOT save the furniture.

  35. C@tmommasays:
    Monday, December 16, 2024 at 7:45 am
    Were going to get the announcement today about who’s going to be sitting on the RBA Rates Setting board aren’t we?
    _____________________
    None of them better have any Labor or Union links.
    They will be slammed in the media if they do and deservedly so.

  36. Taylormadesays:
    Monday, December 16, 2024 at 8:50 am
    _______________________
    I agree (unions are ok by me tho) – hope you’re consistent when it comes to coalition stacking boards :/

  37. Jim Chalmers will never be PM. He missed the opportunity to show strong vision as Treasurer by either getting the RBA to begin cutting interest rates a month ago or over riding the RBA and exercise the Govt’s authority to do so. Even a 0.1% cut (hardly economically reckless) would show the electorate that Labor will not tolerate the ongoing per capita recession (7 quarters and counting) any longer. Australia’s inflation is caused by supply issues and corporate excessive profits not wage push inflation. Interest rates are too blunt a tool to control inflation in the current economic circumstances. The electorate is really hurting. Soundbites and communicating achievements simply won’t translate into votes.

    Dutton is clearly unsuited to be PM but the same was said about Abbott and Trump for POTUS. When the electorate is hurting badly they reach for the baseball bats. 2025 is Labor’s to lose, a minority govt. is the best they can hope to get.

  38. Confessions point is well made.
    Labor has to remind voters what they have Labor and only Labor to be grateful for. And don’t confine it to just the current term.
    The coalition aren’t going to talk about Labor’s achievements nor is the MSM.
    Labor need to get serious about trying to stay in government.
    Lord knows I wouldn’t like to be one the many Labor members from this government doomed to a decade or more reflecting on what might have been had they just been a bit better at politics than Peter Dutton and Angus fucking Taylor for fuck sake.

  39. Confessions @ #15 Monday, December 16th, 2024 – 6:56 am

    Another vaccine denialist is proposed to head the CDC.

    Question for these people: if vaccines are so unsafe, why have literally billions of people all around the world benefited from vaccination over the decades?

    Kennedy proposed Weldon for the job, according to a person involved in the process who spoke on the condition of anonymity to share a private conversation.

    Weldon’s past record of promoting the disproven link between vaccines and autism in the face of overwhelming scientific evidence attesting to the safety and efficacy of vaccines raises concerns among some public health experts about his ability to run the CDC. If confirmed, Weldon could undermine confidence in the lifesaving shots at a time when infectious-disease threats such as measles and whooping cough are on the rise, they say.

    A Washington Post review of Weldon’s public comments, media appearances and congressional letters along with accounts of those who worked with him reveal a portrait of a politician and physician who emphasized the experiences of individuals while dismissing dozens of studies based on data from hundreds of thousands of patients that showed no link between vaccines and autism.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/12/15/dave-weldon-trump-cdc-vaccine-skepticism/

    You hope that Americans will wake up when they start seeing the results of these insane policies right where they live.

    The Senate only needs one more courageous Republican Senator to vote against these nut jobs. Especially RFK. So far they have Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski and Mitch McConnell (who had polio as a kid).

  40. Taylormade @ #44 Monday, December 16th, 2024 – 8:50 am

    C@tmommasays:
    Monday, December 16, 2024 at 7:45 am
    Were going to get the announcement today about who’s going to be sitting on the RBA Rates Setting board aren’t we?
    _____________________
    None of them better have any Labor or Union links.
    They will be slammed in the media if they do and deservedly so.

    You mean like the Coalition always stack the RBA board with business people with no economics background?

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