The Australian reports the first Newspoll in four weeks has an even result on two-party preferred, where the Coalition led 51-49 last time. Primary votes are little changed, with Labor steady on 33%, the Coalition down a point to 39%, the Greens steady on 11% and One Nation up two to 7%. Anthony Albanese is steady at 40% approval and down a point on disapproval to 54%, while Peter Dutton is down a point to 39% and steady on 51%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 45-41 to 45-38.
Also featured is a suite of questions on leader attributes that Newspoll has been running on a semi-regular basis since 2010. Dutton scores small leads on experienced, has a vision for Australia and understands the major issues, and a large lead on decisive and strong, for which Albanese’s 44% is significantly worse than for any of the previous prime ministers covered. Albanese’s two good marks are a 57% to 45% lead over Dutton on cares for people, and a 58% to 47% deficit on arrogant. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1258.
UPDATE: I had missed that Nine Newspapers also have the monthly Resolve Strategic poll, which gives Labor its worst result of the term, their primary vote down three to 27%. The Coalition is also down, by one point to 38%, with the Greens up one to 12% and One Nation up two to 7%. Personal ratings for both leaders have significantly weakened: Anthony Albanese is down six on approval to 31% and up six on disapproval to 57%, while Peter Dutton is down five to 40% and up two to 42%. The poll continues to record a tie on preferred prime minister, shifting from 37-37 to 35-35. Other findings include 59% saying they are worse off since the 2022 election, with only 13% better off; 36% saying Dutton and the Coalition would improve things more over the next three years, compared with 27%; and 44% expecting the Coalition will win the next election, compared with 33% for Labor. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1604.
Albanese’s two good marks are a 57% to 45% lead over Dutton on cares for people, and a 58% to 47% deficit on arrogant.
Doesnt do Dutton any favours.
Hopefully the raft of legislation passed in the last week of parliament will improve those ‘decisiveness’ and ‘strength’ numbers.
If people don’t like Anthony Albanese, they like Peter Dutton even less.
Thel C and Peggy
Welcome! I take it from your words that I have copied below, that you are new posters. It is so nice to have new voices here!
A dreadful poll for Dutton going into th Christmas break. Histrionics from him should ensue.
In a nutshell:
“I really think people are weary of politics and they want to see leaders who are focused on the tangible, on daily realities,”
Douglas and Milko @ #5 Sunday, December 8th, 2024 – 10:13 pm
And they’re female! 😀
About time the Liberals realised that Dutton is a dead duck in the water and need someone more popular or less well known to replace him.
If Dutton is really going cold on migration, time for Labor to step up – setting 100k net overseas migration directly or committing to a plebiscite.
Hell, make it a reverse wedge, negative gearing + CGT reform + NOM cut as a unified package and make the statement that houses are for Australian families.
Not a bad last-of-the-year poll for Labor, holding the line well in the face of a strong anti-incumbent vibe across the nation and in the western democracies generally. In truth, the numbers haven’t moved much for months, with a Labor primary in the low 30s, a Coalition primary in the high 30s, the Greens with their standard 10-12%, and others in the 15-20% range, washing out to a 50/50 2PP. Hard to see the Coalition winning enough seats to deal them into the minority government discussion on those numbers, though I do note that the Resolve poll has notably worse numbers for the government.
I’m not a new poster. I just post rarely as most of the time this site is just a partisan shit fight between people that have closed minds so what’s the point of posting to challenge them?
Okay, this is good enough for an end-of-year poll for Labor I suppose, and will probably be among the last for the moment until the end of January next year when Trump takes office again and shakes up the world to unknowable results.
I really hope that Albanese and his team can improve on this though. I don’t want this to be another constant flatline 50-50 brown note until May and then the results come in and ppphht, looks like the Coalition flipped 20 seats and wins a majority government.
Thankyou Douglas & Milko,
Yes I am a long time watcher of the site, but rarely venture in to commentary.
Good to hear the views of all
Peggy
It is what it is. I dont think its going to change any time soon.
C@tmomma @ #3 Sunday, December 8th, 2024 – 10:07 pm
And if they don’t think very much of either of them, they can always vote for an independent.
Peggy,
You could try to change it for the better. Just a thought. 😐
Wait until people finally hear how much Dutton’s Nuclear proposal will cost. Half a Trillion $$!
And trying to say that Labor’s Renewables will cost more is just hogwash. Not to mention people want Renewables and they don’t want Nuclear!
Kevin Bonham linked his most recent blog post on the old thread today, mainly regarding the recent Redbridge MRP, and the misreporting by the usual suspects in the msm:
https://kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2024/12/media-fails-again-over-mrp-reporting.html
Of particular interest was this paragraph, given today’s Resolve and Newspolls:
“… assuming a May election, historically on average polls taken now have been about 3% 2PP away from the actual result, and limiting things to more recent elections and higher quality polls doesn’t change a lot there. (The average difference between results and Newspolls taken five and a half months out has been just under 2.5%, with governments on average improving by nearly 1% in that time.) That said, I find with Newspoll at least that polls taken this far out tend to be closer to the result when the polls themselves are close. Most federal elections these days are pretty close on the 2PP front, with only two of the last 13 outside 53-47. So it’s more likely to see a massive lead shrink than to see a close race blow out into a landslide. Even so, if I halve the average error and say there’s historically a 50% chance of polls taken now being within 1.5% of the final result, there’s still plenty of room for one side or the other to win outright.”
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As I pointed out last week, over the past couple of months the polling decline for Labor has appeared to stabilise, once one excludes outliers (and today’s Resolve – 27% Labor -takes the cake, although it is no less extreme than the Redbridge poll of earlier last week that put Labor on 34%.
I think the range of 31-33 is fairly baked at the end of this year for Labor, and the 2PP on Bludgertrack and KB’s site has it very close to 50-50. However, as KB points out, historical trends see the incumbent government typically improve in the last 5 months but up to 1%.
The next 3-5 months will be a real arm wrestle to take charge of the narrative, but it would not surprise me if Labor ends back on around 32-33% on Primaries, the LNP on 38 (having picked up half the cooker vote from Palmer’s now deregistered UAP), the Greens on 12, ON on 7 (having picked up the other half of UAP) and the ultimate 2PP at the next election being somewhere between 51 and 52.5 to Labor. A few seats may change hands – both ways – between the majors and to and from various indis and minors, but all in all a status quo election looms as the most likely outcome (by which I mean the Government is returned, either in a narrow majority in its own right, or comfortably close to one, with between 73 and 78 seats).
Of course, if the ‘are you worse off than 3 years ago?’ line starts to bite, and folk are prepared to buy into bullshit regarding the nuclear brain fart masquerading as ‘alternative policy’ then well, that could all flip.
Algernonsays:
Sunday, December 8, 2024 at 10:14 pm
A dreadful poll for Dutton going into th Christmas break. Histrionics from him should ensue.
_____________________
I know who will be having the better Christmas break.
Dutton will be sitting back very relaxed and contented, enjoying time with the family.
Remember how pre June it was all going to turn, and Labor was going to street away on the back of the S3 tax cuts with an interest rate cut to follow around September.
Dutton will take 50/50, don’t you worry about that.
Andrew_Earlwood at 10.42pm
Of course, if the ‘are you worse off than 3 years ago?’ line starts to bite, and folk are prepared to buy into bullshit regarding the nuclear brain fart masquerading as ‘alternative policy’ then well, that could all flip.
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I’d think Labor would hope that the “are you worse off than 3 years ago” line has already bitten and been squeezed dry by the Coalition, because if Albanese has already lost skin without that line resonating, they’ll struggle to hold on.
A vote for labor is a vote for the Greens combine that with are you better off now then you were before last election and labor with a weak leader and dud ministers and a basket case economy are going down.
Lots of own goals to come also from fed labor.
Someone(s) dropped a match in the “fireworks” upon the revelations from Resolve
Only for someone(s) to quietly to exit the room after Newspoll.
The two and a half year old election campaign had a reminder tonight that another six months of “discussion” will be required before the fireworks are set to go off with a confused whimper.
While Syria reminds all, of the lack of stability associated with the politics of power.
The polling question “are you better off now than in 2022?” is a ridiculous question because it only has one answer
The question which should be being put is “Do you anticipate being better off in 2025 than you were in 2022?”and that question also has only one answer
The reasons are obvious
In 2022 inflation had gained traction, sitting at 6% at the time of the election – and the RBA had COMMENCED lifting interest rates to arrest inflation
The RBA lifts interest rates to contract the economy, to reduce demand therefore arresting the inflationary surge in prices for goods and services
And this has been the situation since the RBA responded to inflation by lifting interest rates (incrementally, not by 4% in one hit) over 3 years ago, so on the watch of the previous government
So the question our corrupt media ask their equally corrupt polling companies is exactly that – corrupt because it can only have one answer
Of course we are worse off now than in 2022 – and if we were not inflation would be out of control, noting it peaked at 8% now about 3%
Confidence is returning, discretionary spending is recovering as people are becoming confident that inflation is under control – and interest rates have peaked, now to reduce
Plus they have wage rises and tax cuts in an economy where you can find work
Take it from me, confidence is returning thru the cash registers at shops, at restaurants, at the theatres etc etc
The media are influencers, the summary being that they are the uneducated telling their fellow uneducated what they do not know – and for putting the polling question they put, where there can only be one answer, they need to be called out for exactly who and what they are
When the election is called next year the government will be on very firm ground because the expectation and the fact will be that the elevated inflation cycle is behind us – that confidence, accordingly, will be on the improve confirmed by the RBA and economic data
In regard the manner of the RBA and the government have responded thru this inflationary cycle there is positive news, noting that Central Bank (and austerity governments) sees some Nations mired in recession with increasing unemployment – but NOT Australia
So those who seek to make hay out of asking such a ridiculous question (because there can only be one answer given the economic cycle) and making the reply their headline will be in for a shock – noting they are not asking the question which should be being asked, and why not?
My information on the recovery of confidence comes from those I associate with across commerce and industry, so from the horses mouth
There is also reference to caution during inflationary cycles, people retaining their money as a risk contingency which is the fact confirmed by savings being at near record levels So recovery is quick because confidence sees these funds being spent, so a rundown in household savings
And I would add into this that Markets are forward looking – hence the returns YTD on our superannuation accruals are at 20%
Plus the recent movement in the AUD 10 year bond yields
That’s an interesting interpretation. Not sure either the ALP or LNP number crunchers would agree.
Peter C @ #23 Sunday, December 8th, 2024 – 11:11 pm
Great post here. I agree.
Peter C at 11:11 pm
The polling question “are you better off now than in 2022?” is a ridiculous question because it only has one answer
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I don’t think that’s necessarily true across the board, but if it is, doesn’t it rather show the effectiveness of it as a line and one that any Opposition would run with? If the best an incumbent government can say in response is “we accept you’re worse off than when we got here, but here’s why we deserve another chance”, I suspect a lot of voters will absorb the first part of that and will then switch off.
If I was the LNP leader and someone had said to me after the last election – you can have these two polls in December 2024 before a May 25 election, I would have said yes please.
Stinker says:
Sunday, December 8, 2024 at 10:59 pm
It’s barely been asked if the electorate. For a political message to get through the politician has to say it until they are sick to the back teeth and then keep saying it for another three months, minimum.
Peter Csays:
Sunday, December 8, 2024 at 11:11 pm
The polling question “are you better off now than in 2022?” is a ridiculous question because it only has one answer
The question which should be being put is “Do you anticipate being better off in 2025 than you were in 2022?”and that question also has only one answer.
===========================
And the answer is what Peter C?
Do I anticipate being better off in 2025, than I was in 2022.
Sorry, the answer is No.
Is that what you want to hear or are you wish-casting?
As for your comment…
“Take it from me, confidence is returning thru the cash registers at shops, at restaurants, at the theatres etc etc”
“Take it from me” – Are you the site seer?
You sound like a know it all to me.
C@tmommasays:
Sunday, December 8, 2024 at 10:41 pm
C@t,
The punters will never be told/informed about/lied to about the cost of nuclear as it’s an impossible task to do so.
Dutton and O’Brien will bloviate daily after Christmas about nuclear and the punters will hear what the want to hear.
Renewable energy has progressed so far in Australia that a reversal is no longer an economic possibility.
Opinions are quite set.
The big unknowns for this elections are the reaction to a perceived recession, house prices and how it restricts borrowing and therefore spending and the changing political balance between the least well off and the rich.
The voters aren’t marching in the streets. The often quoted calamity is not apparent yet.
The performance of the Greens, the Teals, the independents, the marijuana brigade and the regions are the key.
Tonight was a bizarre PB performance.
That may be right, FUBAR – though I imagine it’s a question that’s weighing on a lot of voters’ minds without it needing to be said ad nauseam.
My personal thought for a while has been that the Government’s reelection prospects are out of its own hands to a large degree. A continuation of the status quo in terms of economic sentiment will make reelection difficult. But a move in the right direction would likely see the Government scrape back in, albeit I would expect in minority. What Labor wouldn’t give for an interest rate cut early in the new year.
And to the overall question, as I have previously put, Dutton has done himself and the cohesion which is Australia no favours by blaming Albanese for the disturbing event in Ripponlea
By taking one side Dutton infests
I would put that the very great majority of Australians sees ourselves as fair and reasoned – and that is not Dutton
Dutton is nothing more and nothing less than a tawdry politician, doing damage to the political class and society with his divisiveness such as in this matter
IF this event is in response to the life long dispute which is the Middle East then you do not resolve the matter by taking one side
The simple fact is that both sides consist of human beings
Hence resolution because that is the way, as a Nation, we address our differences
With Dutton, if it is right wing it is right
Except no one is always right just as no one is always wrong
The only reason Dutton survives is because of media and media bias for the political party he currently leads
And Thel C, I know where I am getting my information from – and it is stating to show up in National statistics
If the economic cycle is not to your benefit across 2025 and onwards then that will be your problem as you are left behind
This Newspoll suggest Labor’s efforts to get legislation passed in the Senate last sitting week have done it no harm. Some good in fact.
C@tmomma says Sunday, December 8, 2024 at 9:58 pm
I’m pretty sure that’s guaranteed by the Constitution so I don’t think he can change that.
As an aside: https://www.youtube.com/shorts/vaAMksnT5CM
Socrates says Sunday, December 8, 2024 at 11:46 pm
I think voters tend to like governments that appear to be doing things and in control. Getting their housing bill through didn’t do any harm either (once the Greens realised their intransigence was an own goal politically).
Could Chinese Control Over Strategic Minerals Coupled with US Corruption Cripple the Sputtering US War Machine?
=======
banned exports to the US of the critical minerals gallium, germanium and antimony and requires stricter review of end use for graphite items.
. . .
According to the AP . . . next on the list of potential bans are tungsten, magnesium and aluminum alloy.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/12/could-chinese-control-over-strategic-minerals-coupled-with-us-corruption-cripple-the-sputtering-us-war-machine.html
THE DICTATOR AND His Loyal (Grateful?)
Christian Senior Clergy, in better times.
—-
https://x.com/realDaveReilly/status/1865605981042049346?t=OdzPAYKVIwV0xFrIEPiLsA&s=19
Peter C
Another good post.
That sweet, sweet tankie butthurt. A glorious day indeed.
“CSIRO refutes Coalition case nuclear is cheaper than renewable energy due to operating life”
“That sweet, sweet tankie butthurt. A glorious day indeed.”
Can you explain for the hard of understanding?
I was responding to AV’s link, not to you.
Butthurt ? Oreshnik ! THAT’S Butthurt.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/11/sputnik-2-0-oreshnik-and-the-western-military-capabilities-gap.html
Sounded like the last time I had a colonoscopy.
And I responded with Oreshnik, have you read it ?
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/11/sputnik-2-0-oreshnik-and-the-western-military-capabilities-gap.html
Of course not.
steve davis @ #41 Monday, December 9th, 2024 – 1:53 am
Russia has been routed from Syria, fleeing with their tail between their legs.
Tankie, alfred venison, super butthurt and no likie.
I can tell you one thing about Russia’s satrap in Syria, the fighting forces in Ukraine have heard about Assad being toppled and Russia not being able to save him this time and they are using it as inspiration.
They can see that, even if you have to fight for 12 years there is a possibility of beating Putin. However, they wish that, as with Assad the end comes quickly when it comes and not in 12 years. 😀
I’m waiting for Lars Von Trier’s predictions for a glorious Coalition win again today, based on Newspoll. 🙂