Newspoll: 50-50 (open thread)

Labor moves back to parity on two-party preferred in Newspoll, but Resolve Strategic finds their position continuing to deteriorate.

The Australian reports the first Newspoll in four weeks has an even result on two-party preferred, where the Coalition led 51-49 last time. Primary votes are little changed, with Labor steady on 33%, the Coalition down a point to 39%, the Greens steady on 11% and One Nation up two to 7%. Anthony Albanese is steady at 40% approval and down a point on disapproval to 54%, while Peter Dutton is down a point to 39% and steady on 51%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister has widened from 45-41 to 45-38.

Also featured is a suite of questions on leader attributes that Newspoll has been running on a semi-regular basis since 2010. Dutton scores small leads on experienced, has a vision for Australia and understands the major issues, and a large lead on decisive and strong, for which Albanese’s 44% is significantly worse than for any of the previous prime ministers covered. Albanese’s two good marks are a 57% to 45% lead over Dutton on cares for people, and a 58% to 47% deficit on arrogant. The poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1258.

UPDATE: I had missed that Nine Newspapers also have the monthly Resolve Strategic poll, which gives Labor its worst result of the term, their primary vote down three to 27%. The Coalition is also down, by one point to 38%, with the Greens up one to 12% and One Nation up two to 7%. Personal ratings for both leaders have significantly weakened: Anthony Albanese is down six on approval to 31% and up six on disapproval to 57%, while Peter Dutton is down five to 40% and up two to 42%. The poll continues to record a tie on preferred prime minister, shifting from 37-37 to 35-35. Other findings include 59% saying they are worse off since the 2022 election, with only 13% better off; 36% saying Dutton and the Coalition would improve things more over the next three years, compared with 27%; and 44% expecting the Coalition will win the next election, compared with 33% for Labor. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1604.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

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