Weekend miscellany: economy, nuclear and abortion polling, preselection latest (open thread)

More signs that economic sentiment may have turned the corner; Labor recruits a former state leader for a key state in Tasmania; and more besides.

With every pollster in the game bar the increasingly intermittent YouGov having weighed in over the past fortnight, it’s likely that a lean week awaits on the federal polling front, barring the usual weekly Roy Morgan poll. Besides the other new post on campaign finance, that leaves the following to relate:

• SECNewgate’s latest Mood of the Nation survey finds signs of improving economic sentiment: 35% confident and 65% not confident inflation will decrease over the coming year, compared with 31% and 69% in September, and 35% (up eight) anticipate the economy will improve over the next three months, with 38% thinking it will get worse (down eight). Labor is rated better to tackle the cost of living by 29% with 30% favouring the Coalition, reversing the result in September. It also finds 33% support lifting the nuclear energy ban with 42% opposed, and 64% saying they would be less likely to vote for a party that restricted access to abortion rights, compared with only 11% for more likely. The survey was conducted October 31 to November 4 from a sample of 1417.

• Labor has confirmed two existing political figures as candidates for federal seats in Tasmania, with former state leader Rebecca White confirmed as the candidate for Lyons, which she has served at state level since 2010. Incumbent Brian Mitchell, who survived a 4.3% swing to hold out by 0.9% in 2022 (a correction after the Liberals disendorsed their candidate mid-campaign in 2019), agreed to go quietly, saying the party should “grab her with both hands” if White sought a federal career. The north-western Tasmanian seat of Braddon, where Liberal member Gavin Pearce will retire after boosting his margin from 3.1% to 8.0% in 2022, will be contested for Labor by Anne Urquhart, who has served in the Senate since 2011. Among the many factors considered by Kevin Bonham are the recount that will be required to fill White’s state parliamentary vacancy, and the appointment to fill Urquhart’s Senate vacancy.

• A Liberal preselection for Mackellar, which teal independent Sophie Scamps won from the party in 2022, was won by James Brown, chief executive of the Space Industry Association of Australia, former state RSL president and former son-in-law of Malcolm Turnbull. Other candidates included Michael Gencher, executive director of Israel advocacy group StandWithUs; Brook Adcock, former Qantas pilot and founder of Pandora Jewellery; David Brady, chair of Deafness Forum Australia; and Paul Nettelbeck, director of a foreign aid not-for-profit; Lincoln Parker, a defence analyst; and Vicky McGahey, a high school teacher. Nothing came of a reported push to reopen nominations so that Sophie Stokes, former Commonwealth Bank executive and wife of former New South Wales Planning Minister Rob Stokes, might be persuaded to run in a field deemed to lack a strong female contender.

• A particularly interesting state by-election looms in Victoria after the resignation of Prahran MP Sam Hibbins, who quit the Greens last year after admitting to an affair with a staff member from his office. The seat has successively been held by Labor, Liberal and the Greens over the past two decades, reflecting a close three-way dynamic similar to that of the partly corresponding federal seat of Macnamara.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

779 comments on “Weekend miscellany: economy, nuclear and abortion polling, preselection latest (open thread)”

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  3. Regarding the increased Green vote in Qld, was that because they fielded more candidates in more seats? Or did tighter preference control prevent a win on prefs in the seats they already held?

  6. Luigi Smith @ #752 Monday, November 25th, 2024 – 10:00 pm

    Regarding the increased Green vote in Qld, was that because they fielded more candidates in more seats? Or did tighter preference control prevent a win on prefs in the seats they already held?

    The main aim of the LNP in the 2020 election was to get rid of Jackie Trad so they did a preference deal with the Greens to make it so.

    Once that was achieved they reverted back to preferencing against Greens for 2024. Cynical, but it worked.

  7. dave says:
    Monday, November 25, 2024 at 9:58 pm
    Lars, stop using your magic power to alter the perception of the political environment. Damn it.

    ________

    Did Lars sense a disturbance in the Force, today? 😉

    Personally I am annoyed about the stall on gambling legislation. But it is apparent that this was washed away by The Greens who came in from the cold on housing. But I will be looking for a progressive alternative to both Labor and The Greens.

  8. C@tmomma says:
    Monday, November 25, 2024 at 9:32 pm
    Lars Von Trier @ #727 Monday, November 25th, 2024 – 9:02 pm

    The relationship with the Greens is one of the key issues Labor will need to think through in Opposition.

    Says Mr ‘Labor Primary to go Below 30%’
    =============================================
    C@t, that wasn’t Lars, that was me on the weekend of June 29/30, when Sen Payman defected.

    The fallout…
    * 7-Jul Morgan : 28.5%
    * 14-Jul Resolve : 28%
    * 14-Jul Essential: 29%
    * 11-Aug Resolve : 29%
    * 11-Aug Morgan : 29.5%
    * 11-Aug Essential : 28%
    * 25-Aug Essential : 29%, &
    * 29-Aug Wolf & Smith : 29% {What’s happenned to Wolf & Smith by the way}

    … and then HMAS ALP settled.

    I note though the Oct 28 Essential had the ALP back at 28%, and the Nov 17 Morgan at 29%.
    I’m watching closely. A few little nasties turn up, but the ALP primary seems to be lifting, not listing atm.

  9. I think it’s a bit OTT to say the Greens are “on the ropes” seems they have a fairly solid base of 10% of the vote, there’s a chance they will go backwards in the House of Reps at the next election but they’re likely to maintain their position in the Senate and it’s not likely they’ll disappear anytime soon. In the Queensland election you also had Labor taking on some Green type positions such as free school lunches, cheap public transport and a state fuel retailer which probably went quite some way to protecting inner city seats from Green challengers, doubt Federal Labor are inclined to take a similar approach.

    It’ll be interesting to see how Albo fares in his own seat of Grayndler actually, I don’t think he’s in any danger of losing it but think he may lose a lot of fat in his margin.

  10. nadia88 says:
    Monday, November 25, 2024 at 10:07 pm
    C@tmomma says:
    Monday, November 25, 2024 at 9:32 pm
    Lars Von Trier @ #727 Monday, November 25th, 2024 – 9:02 pm

    The relationship with the Greens is one of the key issues Labor will need to think through in Opposition.

    Says Mr ‘Labor Primary to go Below 30%’
    =============================================
    C@t, that wasn’t Lars, that was me on the weekend of June 29/30, when Sen Payman defected.

    The fallout…
    * 7-Jul Morgan : 28.5%
    * 14-Jul Resolve : 28%
    * 14-Jul Essential: 29%
    * 11-Aug Resolve : 29%
    * 11-Aug Morgan : 29.5%
    * 11-Aug Essential : 28%
    * 25-Aug Essential : 29%, &
    * 29-Aug Wolf & Smith : 29% {What’s happenned to Wolf & Smith by the way}

    … and then HMAS ALP settled.

    I note though the Oct 28 Essential had the ALP back at 28%, and the Nov 17 Morgan at 29%.
    I’m watching closely. A few little nasties turn up, but the ALP primary seems to be lifting, not listing at the moment.

    ________

    Essential primaries aren’t the same with the proportion undecided. Forcing a square peg into a round hole.

  11. Primaries are the primaries Griff.
    The 2PP is all over the place. KB, WB, Mark the Ballot & the Guardian tracker have quite varied 2PP’s.
    I focus on the primaries.

  12. mj – The Greens are on track to pull a Senator in each state at the next half senate.
    They’re not in trouble in QLD. Most likely the ALP will pick up a Senator there and Roberts will depart.
    The LNP primary in QLD is strong enough to get them 3 Senators.
    Tassie may be interesting – I think the ALP voters who gave Lambie support may return back to the ALP fold and help to elect an extra ALP Senator out of Tassie. My only reasoning for this is that the Lambie members provided support to the state LNP gov’t, so I suspect those ALP voters may be up for payback.

  13. nadia88 says:
    Monday, November 25, 2024 at 10:18 pm
    Primaries are the primaries Griff.
    The 2PP is all over the place. KB, WB, Mark the Ballot & the Guardian tracker have quite varied 2PP’s.
    Focus on the primaries.

    ________

    You equate a primary percentage with a proportion undecided to a primary percentage with no option for undecided? That is a little different to how I see it. But then I am looking at it through a psychometric lens.

  16. dave says:
    Monday, November 25, 2024 at 10:31 pm
    Griffsays:

    But then I am looking at it through a psychometric lens.
    ______________________________
    LMAO.

    ___________

    I am a big fan of undecided responses. Would you believe I co-authored a paper on missing data? 😉

  17. What would John Curtin say, ‘Labor at 28% of the primary vote’ Yet the right wing junta on here say “nothing to see here.” What nut bags!

  19. The latest on Ukraine

    Perun’s latest take:
    1,000 Days of War in Ukraine – Russia’s IRBM Strike, Trends & The Forces after 1,000 days

    When Russian paratroopers began landing at Hostomel airport in February 2022, many in the media expected a David vs Goliath battle that would end quickly and badly for the Ukrainian defenders.

    Instead, we’re here today to have a look at where the war stands more than 1,000 days later.

    Of course, with the uptick in escalations recently, a lot of that discussion actually has to focus on the last 14 days, not the last 1,000, but it’s not everyday you see a state fire an experimental IRBM against a city…

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vf2vSoWsmgI

  20. Nadia:

    Tassie may be interesting – I think the ALP voters who gave Lambie support may return back to the ALP fold and help to elect an extra ALP Senator out of Tassie. My only reasoning for this is that the Lambie members provided support to the state LNP gov’t, so I suspect those ALP voters may be up for payback.

    Labor got less than two quotas in 2022, so any increase in their vote just means they won’t have to rely on the Green surplus / other minor left parties to get their second seat. If Lambie loses it’ll almost certainly be to the Lib #3. Labor would need a swing well above 10% to be anywhere near a third seat.

    Also, Tas Labor didn’t really give state JLN a chance to talk about government, they just conceded defeat and let the Libs carry on. Most Labor supporters there would be more salty at their own party for not trying.

  21. Sceptic says:
    Monday, November 25, 2024 at 8:45 pm
    Build to rent is a significant reform, if it provides valuable rental stock in line with many progressive European cities, it will also stabilize the rental market.. not everyone wants to own their own home, many just want stable long term ( forever even) rental with certainty they don’t get booted out by a negative gearing capitalists turning a quick flip dollar

    ********************************

    In the 2023-24 SA state budget, Labor introduced a 50% land tax concession for eligible build to rent on SA government land.

    In March this was announced:

    “Sentinel Australia has secured approval from the State Commission Assessment Panel for its transformative multi-million-dollar institutional build-to-rent project at Bowden…
    the premium 240-apartment building will be purpose-built for renters… the pet-friendly community will boast an array of resident amenities including a swimming pool, fitness centre, resident lounge, barbeque facilities, and two open green terraces on the podium level… Features such as EV charging stations, ample bike parking, energy-efficient appliances, solar panels for common area energy supply, and recycled water usage will contribute to eco-friendly living… Located just 2.5 kilometres from Adelaide’s CBD”

    https://renewalsa.sa.gov.au/news/sentinel-australia-secures-planning-approval-for-major-build-to-rent-project-at-bowden

    And here’s the best bit.

    South Australia’s Minister for Housing and Urban Development Nick Champion:

    “The build-to-rent asset class is a game changing for South Australia because it challenges the established tenant/landlord relationship giving power back to tenants – critical when rental vacancies at below 1 per cent”

    The housing reform this country needs is to take back essential renting from the greedy, grasping hands of unscrupulous ‘mum and dad’ investors.

  26. theunaustralian: Labor Agrees To Give Max Chandler-Mather A Gold Star In Exchange For The GReens Passing Their Housing Bill

  27. https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11-26/federal-politics-live-blog-november-26/104645250

    Quoting Max…

    “We’re not just going to destroy, cut and block, and destroy any hope of actually fixing this housing crisis.”

    … someone spends a little bit too much time browsing PB?

    …

    In any event, Sukkar is right there is too many migrants – clearly the main game in tackling housing affordability. But unlocking super for housing is absolutely the worst way to add to the fire. The Libs hatred that workers dare be shareholders (and through union funds no less) is palpable.


  29. Wat Tyler says:
    Monday, November 25, 2024 at 7:48 pm

    Luigi Smith @ #694 Monday, November 25th, 2024 – 7:01 pm

    Can one of the Greenbots explain to me what has been achieved by delaying the rent to buy legislation for two years? Who has benefitted from it?

    We still don’t have a price on carbon.

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