As Newspoll off-weeks go, a big week for polling, with three further federal voting intention results following upon Freshwater Strategy:
• The fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor down a point to 30%, the Coalition up one to 35%, the Greens up one to 13% and One Nation down two to 7%, with undecided steady at 5%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor moving into a 48-47 lead, after trailing 49-47 last time. Also featured are the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Anthony Albanese down a point on approval to 43% and steady on 48% disapproval, while Peter Dutton is down three to 42% and up two to 41%. A regular “national mood” question reports an improved result off a low base, with a five-point increase in the sentiment that the country is heading in the right direction to 35%, and a four-point decrease for wrong track to 48%. A forced response question on the cause of hotter temperatures records only a 52-48 break in favour of climate change over normal fluctuations, although only 19% rate that Australia is doing too much to address the problem, compared with 33% for not enough and 37% for about right. The poll also finds only mildly negative views on the Trump administration’s likely impact on the global economy and global conflicts, and records 28% favouring Labor’s proposed 20% HECS debt cut over 36% for no change and 36% for abolishing student debt altogether. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1206.
• RedBridge Group has a federal poll recording a tie on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 34%, Coalition 39% and Greens 11%. Further findings from the poll include 54% approval of how Australian federal and state governments handled the COVID pandemic, with 42% disapproval; 53% awareness that the federal government rejected Qatar Airways’ application to increase flights to Australia, with 39% unaware; and 61% perceiving the government gave Qantas preferential treatment in the matter, with 11% disagreeing. The poll was conducted November 6 to 13 from a sample of 2011.
• Both the RedBridge Group poll and last week’s Resolve Strategic poll had questions on perceptions of the Greens. Resolve Strategic found the party was viewed positively by 24%, negatively by 44% and neutrally by 29%, while Adam Bandt was viewed positively by 10%, neutrally by 26% and negatively by 26%, with 38% unfamiliar. With six propositions to choose from, 38% of RedBridge’s respondents favoured clearly negative propositions against 29% for clearly positive, while 14% opted a broadly neutral “party of protest and disruption”.
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 50.5-49.5 to 51-49, from primary votes of Labor 29% (down one-and-a-half), Coalition 39% (up one-and-a-half), Greens 13.5% (up one) and One Nation 6.5% (steady). The two-party measure based on preference flows at the 2022 election is at 50-50, after Labor led 51-49 last week. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1675. Roy Morgan also has a forced response SMS poll, conducted during the royal visit on October 22 and 23 from a sample of 1312, recording a 61-39 split in favour of keeping the existing Australian flag.
• Also out this week was the regular quarterly Tasmanian state poll from EMRS, showing the Liberals’ lead at its narrowest in many a long year, with Labor up four to 31%, Liberal down one to 35%, the Greens steady on 14% and the Jacqui Lambie Network down two to 6%. Jeremy Rockliff’s lead over Dean Winter as preferred premier narrows from 45-30 to 43-37. Also featured are new questions inviting respondents to rate the leaders on a scale from zero to ten, recording 37% favourable, 36% neutral and 22% unfavourable for Rockliff, and 25% favourable, 38% neutral and 11% unfavourable for Winter. The poll was conducted November 5 to 14 from a sample of 1000.
Oakeshott Country @ #247 Thursday, November 21st, 2024 – 3:19 pm
Erlich got it wrong because he underestimated how much we were willing to steal from future generations.
How soon before we see a formal Greens-LNP coalition in parliament?
Centresays:
Thursday, November 21, 2024 at 3:19 pm
Mexicanbeemer,
We were not told that in 2007 (your conclusion is wrong anyway) when it was the greatest moral challenge of our lifetime.
Now, you are starting to sound like the bible. No matter what the weather might be – it’s all got to do with climate change.
Great things, horrible things, god is great…
————————-
It’s not my conclusion but the earth’s history tells us when the planet warms the areas around the equator expand outwards pushing weather systems out and rain fall increases because of increase heat and as the planet cools ice sheets expand. Melbourne’s winter was colder than recent years taking it back to its averages but it had been more mild because of climate change making it more mild.
“Don’t worry we’re not raiding the Future Fund until 2032” is not the winning message the government seems to think it is.
I think he got it wrong because he underestimated human resourcefulness and also because he wanted to sell his book
Oakeshott Country @ #255 Thursday, November 21st, 2024 – 3:26 pm
Some might call it “resourcefulness “. Others might call it “theft”.
I see the State of Texas has offered Trump some land to build the Stalags for all those evil immigrants tainting the Home of the Brave, Land of the Free.
Eleven million is the touted figures by the Republican desperados. Now, not all 11 million will be there at the same time, but the task will be to move to somewhere else (anywhere else who will take them?) the current populations of countries like Belgium, Jordan and Cuba.
(As references to all things Nazi/German in the 1930s/40s is considered twee these days, I withdraw the word “Stalag” and use “Transit Camp” or “Resettlement Camp” or “Detention Camp” as a softer description.)
What did the US call the camps that thousand and thousands of US citizens of Japanese descent were “housed” in from 1940 onwards?
What a damned pity it has come to this in the US.
Anyhow, I do hope Gina has given Dutton orders to follow the Trump programme.
This will tell if our electorate is quite a stupid as half the US one.
@Tricot
The Americans called their camps for detained Japanese-Americans in the 40s “relocation centers”, then later “segregation centers”.
The best climate change scare was that sharks are going to get more aggressive.
God is great and he is also in charge of the weather
https://youtu.be/f2e-gOeN3DM?si=rtlRJ92A01m4DsRX
Well, one thing is for sure, climate change WILL happen.
We should have maybe 500 million good laps of the sun left before that happens all things being equal.
Technology will win the day – unless Putin blows us all up lol
*catcha later
@Tricot
Another advantage is that at least in Australia the AEC does as much as it can to deliver high turnout. Compulsory voting, elections always held on Saturdays, full access to declaration voting (postal, prepoll, absent and provisional), and preferential voting, all run by an independent federal commission.
If they had that in the US then Harris would likely have won and the Democrats would have held both chambers. But of course it’s only the Republicans that actually do anything with their power so therefore they don’t have it there.
‘Oakeshott Country says:
Thursday, November 21, 2024 at 3:19 pm
My favourite piece of futurism catastrophising – Ehrlich
The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate..
BUT we have finally heeded Erlich’s words and will hit peak population soon – this will apparently also be a catastrophe’
==================================
Erlich et al were in some regards quite right.
We are well into the Anthropocene Extinction event.
While the figures fluctuate around half a billion people go hungry.
Global warming questions the assumption that working an economic system in which the environment is infinite sump and infinite source is working.
Human ingenuity works.
Until it doesn’t.
Just did my regular check in on ABC Just in.
“ What are the best ways to clean your windows? We asked two experts to share their tips on the most effective ways to clean windows”
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11-21/what-are-the-best-ways-to-clean-your-windows/104593980
I’m no expert but if you asked me I would say the ABC has turned to shit.
Also on the last US election counts for the House, it’s currently at 219-213 to the Republicans with 3 seats remaining to declare. These are:
California-13 (Republican leading Democrat by 351 votes)
California-45 (Democrat leading Republican by 397 votes)
Iowa-1 (Republican leading Democrat by 801 votes).
Rainman “I’m no expert but if you asked me I would say the ABC has turned to shit”
Yes, the IPA and Alan Jones are happy about that. They worked hard to gut it.
Well, it certainly looks like ‘bare faced flat out corruption’. But it can’t be, can it? After all, it’s the Labor Party we are talking about.
https://x.com/punterspolitix/status/1859464482537529782
Banquo911
Yes I read the numbers the same. They aren’t bad at all.
I mean, if you acknowledge that Australia is the second biggest exporter of fossil fuel CO2 emissions, yet still vote for two major parties that do this, you’re surely a cooker, right …?
President-elect Donald Trump has experienced a significant boost in favorability among young Americans, according to a recent YouGov poll. Conducted from November 17 to 19, the survey revealed that 57 percent of Americans aged 18 to 29 now hold a favorable view of Trump, marking a net favorability increase of 19 points in that demographic since the YouGov poll on November 9 and 12.
While his favorability remains lower among women and older voters, his gains in the 18-29 group—which accounted for 16 percent of the 2024 electorate, according to The Economist/YouGov—represent a notable shift. The poll surveyed 1,590 U.S. adults and has a margin of error of ±2.5 percent.
Sohar @ #267 Thursday, November 21st, 2024 – 4:26 pm
Well, if it looks like a duck …
Zoe Daniel was in the house when news broke of the death of teenager Bianca Jones who lives in Goldstein. Heartbreaking.
Pic: Mike Bowers at the GA.
And if you get (or inherit) real wealth you finish up in Court
Murdoch, Rinehardt and Pratt as examples
And the barristers can afford to go to lunch – and pay!
Interesting too that the matters between the Club where Kennett was the autocratic President and players and families of First Nations peoples employed by that Club have arrived at (no doubt confidential) Consent Orders where the Club has apologised and met a compensation pay out
That said, what we lost by not electing Shorten in either of 2016 or 2019 is in full focus – noting Albanese is cut from the same cloth as are the progressives in our Parliament
Shorten is right to highlight that being conservative is not an impediment to being progressive (aka Beasley)
So conservative by character and progressive by nature, conservative meaning you engage and debate minus the antics of Trump and the snideness and danger of Dutton
Given we are just over 2 years on from Tory rule over 10 years, why the nuclear debate now?
I do not recall any mention during the Tory 10 years of nuclear power – only bringing coal into the Chamber
And now we have abortion the Tories are not allowed to mention publicly
And a poll of 1,500 adults – of a population of 350 million where the majority don’t bother to vote
We will see what the next 4 years delivers in the hands of recalcitrants and with increasing isolation from many Nations not seduced by recalcitrants
Guardian Australia live blog
ughh !
Well done Minister Shorten.
Millions of Australians benefit from you vision, your drive and your attention to detail.
There are no politicians in the Liberal, Nationals and Greens Parties with similar accomplishments.
Rex Douglas
Banquo911
OK, so we’ve got greens up basically across the board, reversing the moe decreases at the previous polls, 68:29 Postive/neutral:negative for the party, and 39:26 Postive/neutral:negative for bandt and all that shows they’re on the nose? OK guys
Yes I read the numbers the same. They aren’t bad at all.
___________________________________________________________
Both the RedBridge Group poll and last week’s Resolve Strategic poll had questions on perceptions of the Greens. Resolve Strategic found the party was viewed positively by 24%, negatively by 44% and neutrally by 29%, while Adam Bandt was viewed positively by 10%, neutrally by 26% and negatively by 26%, with 38% unfamiliar.
Looks like both of you need some reading lessons – Its 53 – 44 even if you decide to lump neutral in with positive.
If you go the other way (lump neutral with negative) its 24 – 73 for the party and 10-52-38 (Unfamiliar) for Bandt.
Yeah doesnt look bad at all if you are a Greens supporter.
Holdenhillbillysays:
Thursday, November 21, 2024 at 2:26 pm
Teenagers will be banned from using Tiktok, Snapchat, Instagram, X and Reddit until the age of 16 in Australia under new laws to be rushed through Parliament ..
———–
Wow! Chinese, North Korean and Russian secret agents have taken over the Albanese government.
Using the legal system to determine how young people should think. And, in secret Albo says to himself, we will direct their knowledge away from a news source that is critical of my Labor Party. Into the Murdoch media, ‘Kids News’ would be good.
We should help Lachlan out, I am sure they need more money.
If Labor is worried about the mental health of young people, look, spend money on counsellors, mentors, much more help for those living in domestic violence, physical and sexual abuse in the homes of many children.
Children in risky homes are reported to authorities and maybe 50% are not followed up. The greatest initiator of mental health problems.
But that would mean spending taxpayers money here instead of wasting it on the $368billion AUKUS never eventuating submarines.
Can’t do that. These subs are much more important to the Labor Party than children living in unsafe homes.
I am sure BW will be pleased that China Russia and North Korea have such great influence in the Australian parliament.
The thought police are alive and well in Australia.
And children don’t donate to Labor. Another good reason not to help those in bad homes.
Misery guts Bandt is on the political nose.
He should do the Greens a favour and just go.
Why do people assume that if voting in the USA was compulsory the Democrats would win?
Roughly 40% never vote once you allow for those who don’t bother to enrol.If these people were forced to vote they would mostly just vote along racial lines as poorer people are more ethno centric.
Roughly 60% of that 40% would be white so the Republicans may well come out on top.It’s certainly far from guaranteed it would benefit the Democrats.
‘Irene says:
Thursday, November 21, 2024 at 4:56 pm
Holdenhillbillysays:
Thursday, November 21, 2024 at 2:26 pm
Teenagers will be banned from using Tiktok, Snapchat, Instagram, X and Reddit until the age of 16 in Australia under new laws to be rushed through Parliament ..
———–
Wow! Chinese, North Korean and Russian secret agents have taken over the Albanese government.
….’
==================
LOL.
‘howlin wolves says:
Thursday, November 21, 2024 at 4:57 pm
Why do people assume that if voting in the USA was compulsory the Democrats would win?
Roughly 40% never vote once you allow for those who don’t bother to enrol.If these people were forced to vote they would mostly just vote along racial lines as poorer people are more ethno centric.
Roughly 60% of that 40% would be white so the Republicans may well come out on top.It’s certainly far from guaranteed it would benefit the Democrats.’
======================================
We don’t know.
Albo has some strange priorities for a labor politician.
The rate of battery installation is accelerating.
The comments to this article are worth a read.
https://reneweconomy.com.au/origin-adds-more-storage-to-eraring-battery-making-it-biggest-in-australia-and-one-of-worlds-largest/#disqus_thread
The highest No votes by electorate were in electorates that live with Aboriginals in their communities. None of you ask the question, why do you think that those who live with them and see their lives were the ones who so strongly rejected the Voice?
Yes, some of that was probably just pure racism. But, much of it would have been because they have seen the behaviour of the groups when given responsibility. The history of continuing waste, corruption and failures. Unlike the “highly educated” in the ACT and high income inner suburbs that have almost no contact with Aboriginals and have a detached from reality opinion of how the Aboriginals in the most deprived areas would be lifted from poverty and deprivation by the Voice, those that have seen the reality of Aboriginal politics have zero faith in something as nebulous as the Voice. That’s not racism- that’s realism.
FUBAR @ #286 Thursday, November 21st, 2024 – 5:08 pm
Why do you insist that Indigenous Australians must behave better than COALition politicians?
That’s not realism, that’s racism.
Boerwar says:
Thursday, November 21, 2024 at 3:38 pm
There is no shortage of food in the world. Famine only exists as a political weapon.
FUBAR @ #288 Thursday, November 21st, 2024 – 5:13 pm
Nor is there any shortage of money in the world. Does that mean poverty only exists as a political weapon?
FUBARsays:
Yes, some of that was probably just pure racism. But, much of it would have been because they have seen the behaviour of the groups when given responsibility.
____________________________
Like when that Mantuach guy stole millions from the Victorian Liberal Party? Or like every other fraud or waste that has been committed by a white person? Which must be considerable. No?
Centre @ #243 Thursday, November 21st, 2024 – 3:13 pm
Again proving that you have nfi about Global Heating. Bushfires are one consequence. So are massive flooding events. As is the occurrence of another pandemic. Or mutated viruses going through the animal kingdom and killing millions of a species. But you don’t care about any of that because you just want to find another angle to troll Labor.
Areas with large Aboriginal populations voted no not because of Aboriginal people but because they are rural areas that saw the voice as a labor party policy for city types so went against it.
imaXXXXXandivote @ #276 Thursday, November 21st, 2024 – 4:56 pm
I was going to make the same point this morning. Then I thought, why bother? These people are lost causes and resistant to rational argument.
I mean, even if you split the difference it’s still not the greatest look for The Greens on those numbers.
To which I will add that the Man on the Clapham Omnibus is now seeing The Greens in bed with the Coalition, and thus you can picture them in Coalition MP’s offices, more than you can doing deals with Labor. The Greens might think that’s smart politics to give the federal Labor government a bloody nose but it’s not impressing, obviously, their voters.
Mexicanbeemersays:
Thursday, November 21, 2024 at 5:28 pm
Areas with high Aboriginal populations voted no not because Aboriginal people but because they are strong national party areas that saw the voice as a labor party policy for city types so went against it.
__________________________________
Well according to some they were so offended by racial segregation that they voted it down.
These were the same areas in the past where Aboriginal people were not allowed into movie theatres, pools and libraries etc etc.
Mexicanbeemer @ #290 Thursday, November 21st, 2024 – 5:28 pm
How do you know this? And can you prove it?
I thought you lived in Inner City, Melbourne and spent all day on PB?
The Minns government has reached an eleventh-hour agreement to avoid a crippling two-day strike that would have shut down Sydney’s train services. Union sources confirmed the deal, but the parties are still in talks to finalise a few issues.
The former British deputy prime minister John Prescott has died aged 86, his family has announced.
His family said he had “spent his life trying to improve the lives of others, fighting for social justice and protecting the environment”.
The former trade union activist and ex-merchant seaman had Alzheimer’s and died “peacefully” surrounded by relatives at his care home, they said. Prescott was a key figure of Tony Blair’s New Labour project, seen by many as custodian of the party’s traditional values in the face of a modernising leadership.
I just put $500 at $2.10 on Labor to win next year. I really cant see the Libs winning it.
FUBAR
The reason people might think you are racist towards Aboriginal Australians (or at minimum an apologist for racists) is because you keep on making comments that are racist towards Aboriginal Australians. If you stop making racist comments about Aboriginal Australians you might fool them into believing you are not racist towards Aboriginal Australians (or at least an apologist for racists).
Hey guys back again what I give you my opinion on the polls I still think this is Labor to lose the liberals problem is that we don’t know where they’re votes are heading like n88 said it could be that it’s popular in areas that there were already popular in like Queensland in that think it’s gonna be a minority Labor government but I think when that happens they should get rid of Anthony he’s weak same thing if the liberals get into government I think they should get rid of Peter because well he’s an idiot
C@tmomma
How do you know this? And can you prove it?
—————————–
No campaign used the line it’s for the inner city elites because rural and regional people have a long history of being anti the big smoke and we saw it in the polls after the nationals and Dutton came out against it.
Boerwar says:
Thursday, November 21, 2024 at 4:53 pm
Well done Minister Shorten.
Millions of Australians benefit from you vision, your drive and your attention to detail.
There are no politicians in the Liberal, Nationals and Greens Parties with similar accomplishments.
—————————-
I don’t think any politician of the Liberal, National or Greens Party has caused as much damage to their party as Shorten did to Labor.
As his plan from school days was to become a Labor PM, when elected to Federal Parliament in 2007, he was on a mission to impose his beliefs that the USA, business and wealthy people should be a Labor priority.
Discussed, using Senator Mark Arbib as well, with US consulates, Labor policies, how popular PM Rudd was. Gillard was in the loop to take Rudd’s place much earlier than she has said.
And in particular his support for business. He wasn’t the usual Union boss.
So even when, in June 2010, Labor was polling well – Labor 52:48 LNP, the Faceless Men, Shorten, Don Farrell and other right faction politicians got the numbers to depose popular Rudd ( also using dodgy polling figures showing Rudd’s popularity lower than that of Newspoll, I wonder who initiated that?) the coup proceeded.
After that, Labor lost 4 elections – 2010 ( Labor 72: 73 LNP, likely Rudd would have won, but the Faceless Men couldn’t take the risk – his policies were social Democrat, not Shorten’s neoliberal), 2013, 2016, 2019.
Shorten in parliament was a disaster for Labor. Still is. And the initial idea of a disability support service body was Rudd’s.
Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet
https://pmtranscripts.pmc.gov.au › t…
Transcript 16937 | PM Transcripts
The Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, announced the inquiry at the National Disability Awards ceremony in Parliament House. The inquiry forms part of the Australian …
Australian Government to consider new approaches to disability
The Productivity Commission will investigate the feasibility of new approaches for funding and delivering long-term disability care and support.
The Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd, announced the inquiry at the National Disability Awards ceremony in Parliament House.
The inquiry forms part of the Australian Government’s ten year National Disability Strategy being developed with State and Territory Governments and in consultation with the National People with Disabilities and Carer Council.
Rudd’s wife Therese won an Australian Human rights award in 2010 for services for the disabled:
Australian Human Rights Commission
https://humanrights.gov.au › 2010…
2010 Human Rights Medal and Awards Winners
The prestigious 2010 human rights medal. Thérèse Rein for her longstanding work along side people with a disability.
Found in parliamentary records. Of course Shorten couldn’t give this man any credit.