As Newspoll off-weeks go, a big week for polling, with three further federal voting intention results following upon Freshwater Strategy:
• The fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor down a point to 30%, the Coalition up one to 35%, the Greens up one to 13% and One Nation down two to 7%, with undecided steady at 5%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor moving into a 48-47 lead, after trailing 49-47 last time. Also featured are the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Anthony Albanese down a point on approval to 43% and steady on 48% disapproval, while Peter Dutton is down three to 42% and up two to 41%. A regular “national mood” question reports an improved result off a low base, with a five-point increase in the sentiment that the country is heading in the right direction to 35%, and a four-point decrease for wrong track to 48%. A forced response question on the cause of hotter temperatures records only a 52-48 break in favour of climate change over normal fluctuations, although only 19% rate that Australia is doing too much to address the problem, compared with 33% for not enough and 37% for about right. The poll also finds only mildly negative views on the Trump administration’s likely impact on the global economy and global conflicts, and records 28% favouring Labor’s proposed 20% HECS debt cut over 36% for no change and 36% for abolishing student debt altogether. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1206.
• RedBridge Group has a federal poll recording a tie on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 34%, Coalition 39% and Greens 11%. Further findings from the poll include 54% approval of how Australian federal and state governments handled the COVID pandemic, with 42% disapproval; 53% awareness that the federal government rejected Qatar Airways’ application to increase flights to Australia, with 39% unaware; and 61% perceiving the government gave Qantas preferential treatment in the matter, with 11% disagreeing. The poll was conducted November 6 to 13 from a sample of 2011.
• Both the RedBridge Group poll and last week’s Resolve Strategic poll had questions on perceptions of the Greens. Resolve Strategic found the party was viewed positively by 24%, negatively by 44% and neutrally by 29%, while Adam Bandt was viewed positively by 10%, neutrally by 26% and negatively by 26%, with 38% unfamiliar. With six propositions to choose from, 38% of RedBridge’s respondents favoured clearly negative propositions against 29% for clearly positive, while 14% opted a broadly neutral “party of protest and disruption”.
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 50.5-49.5 to 51-49, from primary votes of Labor 29% (down one-and-a-half), Coalition 39% (up one-and-a-half), Greens 13.5% (up one) and One Nation 6.5% (steady). The two-party measure based on preference flows at the 2022 election is at 50-50, after Labor led 51-49 last week. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1675. Roy Morgan also has a forced response SMS poll, conducted during the royal visit on October 22 and 23 from a sample of 1312, recording a 61-39 split in favour of keeping the existing Australian flag.
• Also out this week was the regular quarterly Tasmanian state poll from EMRS, showing the Liberals’ lead at its narrowest in many a long year, with Labor up four to 31%, Liberal down one to 35%, the Greens steady on 14% and the Jacqui Lambie Network down two to 6%. Jeremy Rockliff’s lead over Dean Winter as preferred premier narrows from 45-30 to 43-37. Also featured are new questions inviting respondents to rate the leaders on a scale from zero to ten, recording 37% favourable, 36% neutral and 22% unfavourable for Rockliff, and 25% favourable, 38% neutral and 11% unfavourable for Winter. The poll was conducted November 5 to 14 from a sample of 1000.
@Scott:
“ Going on on opinion polling ,
Federal Lib/nats combined primary vote at best is sitting at 38%
Labor primary vote 33%
at the moment + this is my opinion
The 5% gap between the primary votes, suggest its 51/49% labor Majority at this point”
______
This seems to be a little out of whack with all the poll aggregators at the moment. Labor seems to be averaging between 31 & 32% on primaries and the LNP between 38 & 39%, with the 2PP within a rounding error of 50-50. Overall the situation appears to a fraction under 1% worse for Labor than 12 months ago, which is remarkable given the political headwinds it has faced throughout 2024.
Whilst L’arse – and even Nadia – appear to sniff a change in government, I think the headwinds may be abating somewhat. I think Australians – even progressives – have worked the Greens blocking game out and I suspect that they are in the process of working Dutton out as well: it is going to be pretty hard for the LNP to explain how they oppose measures to cub migration but promise even bigger cuts. It will difficult to explain why they are against free TAFE positions. Etc. Expensive nuclear on the never never isn’t going to win over anyone not already card carrying members of the RWNJ climate wars. Incrementalism may be dull. Especially in the hands of a relatively pedestrian salesman like Albo … BUT … not enough for the mob to toss the government IMO.
The potential inflation wildcard of the looming Trumpocylpse might upset the apple cart, and even without that the inherent conservatism of the reserve bank I may likely delay ANY rate cuts until after the federal election, but ‘black cat’ events aside I think the Government will be returned with a bare majority. It might lose a few seats along the way, but also might stand to pick up an equivalent number elsewhere.
Steelydan @ #196 Thursday, November 21st, 2024 – 1:35 pm
Fair enough. Recounting, it seems there are 17 Sovereign Wealth Funds larger than Australia’s, in 10 countries.
The rest of your post is … well, not to put too fine a point on it … complete nonsense.
Sportsbet
Libs $1.72
ALP $2.20
Staring to pull away
The only other Australian bet is next ALP leader, nothing on next Lib leader. hmmm
Scott before your recent break weren’t u saying the LNP primary wasn’t over 36?
You seem to have adjusted up ur expectations for the Libs without saying it?
I’ve seen the climate denialism in my friends too. All used to be concerned greatly about it. One couple just had kids and they literally won’t even mention or think about it. I don’t blame them, it feels pretty doomed right now. I’d never express this to them but I’d rather not have kids to save them the horror of watching asylum seekers be gunned down en masse by the Navy.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #131 Thursday, November 21st, 2024 – 10:57 am
+1
Climate change is Australia’s Roe vs Wade in that you support taking action or you don’t and few people swing on it.
Lars Von Trier
Yes . not but recently
I have been saying the lib/nats combined primary vote have been around 37/38 for months now
Lib/nats combined primary vote was averaging 36% in August
[‘A seven-year decline in new general practitioners is ending with a near 20 per cent rise in the number of junior doctors training at the peak college for general practice.
Half of the junior doctors must spend at least one year working outside a major metropolitan area.’] – Aunty
The problem is, How Ya Gonna Keep ‘Em Down on the Farm?
My mistake mikehilliard.
I’ve got a horrible habit of just looking at primaries, and scrollbarring other stuff.
My view, with the politics of climate change is I honestly think a lot of voters are just over it…
In Australia,
* 2007 – Our new PM said it was the greatest moral challenge
* 2009 – CPRS blocked
* 2010 – Gov’t nearly wiped out at the election
* 2012 – Carbon tax put in place
* 2013 – Gov’t wiped out at the election. Carbon tax repealed.
* 2014 – Some Professor predicted there would be no water in dams within a few years
* 2017 – 2020 – Greta Thunberg era
* 2020 – Pandemic. {I think this came as a relief to some voters, as climate change went quiet}
* 2022 – Gov’t wiped out. COL became the main focus.
* Today – I just don’t see enthusiasm amongst the majority of the public (not all of course) to return to the politics of climate change.
Bean @ #205 Thursday, November 21st, 2024 – 1:50 pm
Me too. Friends and family. And the funny thing is they are now reverting back to the same tired old lines (the same ones we often see posted here) that are either easily refuted, or now known to be fabrications by those with financial or political interests.
It seems to me that they don’t want evidence, and refuse to be swayed by it if you provide it. They simply don’t want it to be true, and they seem to think that if they refuse to accept it then somehow it won’t be true.
By magic 🙁
Dutton question just gave prime minister Anthony Albanese a welcome home political gift question for him to call the incompetence of the fed lib/nats out
Player One that hurts to hear. My friends don’t really deny it per se, they just refuse to acknowledge it in any capacity. They definitely believe, but idk maybe with a bit more time they will outright refute it.
My partner and I decided a few years ago that we weren’t going to have any kids and just instead enjoy what we can of this beautiful world, I have to imagine other Australians are doing the same. If we ever change our mind we will definitely adopt, but to bring a new life into a world where near-zero effort has been put in by anyone of importance and influence, to create a liveable world, is very discouraging.
Bean
where near-zero effort has been put in by anyone of importance and influence, to create a liveable world, is very discouraging.
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A lot’s happening but most of it gets little media attention.
You see Lars. Only Andrew Earlwood has the freedom to be critical of Labor at will and not be considered ‘anti Labor’. Labor’s DPM, whom Earlwood mocks as the ‘perfumed warlord’, he’s fair game to Earlwood’s criticism despite Marles being firmly in the arena.
Only Earlwood can be critical of Labor’s cowardice on AUKUS and still not be considered ‘anti Labor’.
What a privileged position to have!
Anyone who may be interested in the latest “woke war”, apparently the Jaguar Car company has done some re-branding with a new advertisement.
I noticed that “Jaguar” was trending on twitter and took the No.1 spot a couple of hours ago, knocking off the football draft threads.
The Jaguar ad has been referred to as the new “Bud Light 2.0”
The Bud Light issue was the last “woke war” I can remember, and it happenned in April last year causing a fairly significant drop in sales of the beer during 2023 to the tune of $1.4b and wiping $27b off the value of the parent company Anheuser-Busch.
Anyway, it looks like we have another one brewing.
Bean @ #213 Thursday, November 21st, 2024 – 2:07 pm
I can understand people simply refusing to acknowledge it. It’s very frightening, and that’s a very human response to be being scared shitless.
But reciting all the old denial lines is something else again – that is being deliberately provocative. They are challenging you to refute them, and when you do – just like some posters here – they simply repeat the same lines again next time.
I get it when it happens online – trolls gonna troll. But not when it happens in real life. I wonder if some people can no longer tell the difference? I just read an article in the Monthly about this (“The people who mistook their lives for an app”) about how social media may be not only changing our behaviour, but damaging our cognitive abilities.
Alpha zero, from earlier today,
“The market for what people are watching and listening to is shifting. I have just had my ears wrapped around Rick Beato’s latest interview (David Gilmour).”
Rick is a great interviewer. He knows his stuff but doesn’t smother the interviewee.
I love this one with Jimmy Chamberlin:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3jcjKP2ltU
and shred maestro Paul Gilbert:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PzalOcJwW5A
Maybe the internet security laws should apply equally to the publishers of the comments sections of every blog in the country. It’s social media too.
“The problem is, How Ya Gonna Keep ‘Em Down on the Farm?”
Only way is to send out right wing graduates. Socialising with ‘farmers’ in regional towns for anyone with leftist leanings is impossible.
Labor hate farmers and mulch a greenie stickers are still being displayed.
Teenagers will be banned from using Tiktok, Snapchat, Instagram, X and Reddit until the age of 16 in Australia under new laws to be rushed through Parliament but will still be able to use message services including WhatsApp.
Communications Minister Michelle Rowland confirmed on Thursday that the new laws will come into force in late 2025.
But they will not be ‘grandfathered’ which means that a 13 year old who currently has a TikTok or Instagram account will theoretically be forced to delete the app until they are older when the new laws come into effect.
Melbourne teenager Bianca Jones dies after falling ill from methanol cocktail poisoning.
Holdenhillbillysays:
Thursday, November 21, 2024 at 2:26 pm
Teenagers will be banned from using Tiktok, Snapchat, Instagram, X and Reddit until the age of 16 in Australia under new laws to be rushed through Parliament but will still be able to use message services including WhatsApp.
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People can access Tiktok Reddit and Instagram videos without logging in but 80s Albo might not know that.
50s Dutton has just discovered black and white TV.
steve davissays:
Thursday, November 21, 2024 at 2:35 pm
50s Dutton has just discovered black and white TV.
————–
Was Dutton alive in the 50s.
Albo hasn’t left the 80s.
P1
I think we are seeing the effects of chronic catastrophising. The media has always been able to find an expert to say things are much worse than the last expert said. Catastrophe exhaustion occurs with either disbelief or resignation
The LNP still alive in the 50s.
steve davissays:
Thursday, November 21, 2024 at 2:39 pm
The LNP still alive in the 50s.
—————–
Your party’s lines need work.
steve davis – do you think we are seeing a facist takeover coming in Australia? It was warned about in America. Thoughts?
LVT
I dont think we are on the road to a fascist state. Swinging back to the right though, but nowhere as bad as Trump. Definitely in the USA, Trump is showing all the traits of a fascist dictator and they are going down that road quickly.
I reckon Pollbludger could meet the definition of an age restricted social media platform.
Oakeshott Country @ #226 Thursday, November 21st, 2024 – 2:39 pm
Yes, maybe. Which is one reason we depend on governments, and not on the media. What do we do when they also let us down?
I think I might be getting an inkling as to why Americans voted for Trump.
Teachers also won’t stay in regional towns.
Why are so few right wing people training as doctors, teachers, psychologists and wanting to make the regional areas of Australia better places to live?
That would be patriotic? But not self-interested. No profit to be made.
If you want to know why people are starting to doubt the importance of climate change?
It’s not the people.
It’s you. Open your own eyes and take a good look!
nadia88 at 1.30 pm, Lars at 1.35 pm
Re no. 8 (Ukraine cease-fire). If Lars’ prediction was a cease-fire by Xmas, that is sadly wrong. There is currently an increase in fighting that will last at least until 20 Jan, and probably later.
“Probably need to see the polls after parliament concludes.” Historically, December polls are not predictive at all. See Dec 2018 polls when LNP seemed way behind then. William may have a chart but there is one here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Australian_federal_election#/media/File:Australian_federal_election_polling_-_46th_parliament_-_two_party_preferred.svg
“Have to see what the polls say in the Dec, and then the first biggie of next year when get a Newspoll on/around Sunday 2-Feb.” If the election is called on 27 Jan, that (2 Feb) will be the next significant poll. Of course, Labor will do its own private polling before 27 Jan.
Will you be taking a break from PB for the non-polling period of the silly season? If not, here is a suggestion.
Schedule a regular weekly review for Sun evenings, starting on 1 Dec and excluding 22 and 29 Dec, with the focus on generating informed insights about state factors and particular seats to watch by state, starting with the minor states and ending with NSW, then the Senate. Hence:
1 Dec: Tas and SA
8 Dec: WA
15 Dec: Qld & NT
5 Jan: Vic
12 Jan: NSW
19 Jan: Senate toss-ups (i.e. competitive Senate places)
You don’t need to do anything except initiate a review if you think that is worthwhile, then see what emerges, which may hopefully include some local insights on seat, i.e. candidate, factors.
The reason for starting with the smaller states is they are simpler because fewer seats.
E.g. re Tas: looks like only two competitive seats, assuming B. Archer is returned in Bass, namely Lyons (Labor MP retiring but high profile replacement) and Braddon (Lib retiring).
For info about seat margins, including after redistributions in NSW, Vic & WA, see these links:
https://antonygreen.com.au/2025-federal-redistribution-final-boundaries-for-western-australia-released/
https://antonygreen.com.au/2024-federal-redistributions-final-boundaries-for-victoria-released/
https://antonygreen.com.au/2024-federal-redistributions-final-boundaries-for-nsw-released/
https://antonygreen.com.au/2022-post-federal-election-pendulum/
Some reassuring news for fans of AUKUS:
=================================
“Quentin Dempster@QuentinDempster·5h
Arthur Sinodinos, our former Ambassador to US told an arms/defence forum that Australia, US, UK should put Elon Musk in charge of AUKUS N subs project “and I’m not joking”. There goes any semblance of Australia’s sovereignty. Arthur, a majority of Aussies (57%) don’t want AUKUS.”
For those who have time (a bit over an hour), here’s a pretty good discussion between centre-left podcasters Brian Tyler Cohen and Destiny about future prospects of the Democrats (some topics could also apply to Australian Labor).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZUfiYkCAcCM
‘Irene says:
Thursday, November 21, 2024 at 1:46 pm
mikehilliard says:
Thursday, November 21, 2024 at 12:49 pm
A forced response question on the cause of hotter temperatures records only a 52-48 break in favour of climate change over normal fluctuations
I suppose a forced response has something to do with this? But still, 48% still don’t buy that the climate is changing induced by our activities. I thought this was 2024 not 1984.
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Climate change has become a non issue for the duopoly, the Labor, and LNP Parties. And they both like it that way…..’
====================
The Albanese Government is the first federal government to deliver on systematic climate action to deliver 43/30.
Dutton wants to wreck all that.
The Greens’ zero net 35 is laughable.
I always enjoy reading ur posts Dr D albeit I may not agree with the content sometimes.
Nadia, you mentioned above that a certain professor a decade ago predicted that there would be no water in damns within a few years.
How did that turn out?
The climate change alarmists have gotten very little right since 2007. We haven’t had a dry autumn in Sydney since 2008.
Centre
The climate change alarmists have gotten very little right since 2007. We haven’t had a dry autumn in Sydney since 2008.
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That’s because climate change attracted people that didn’t understand what climate change was so pushed the narrative of big weather events but Sydney not having a dry autumn is because of climate change because weather systems are being pushed out from the equator so Sydney becomes more like Brisbane and Melbourne becomes more like Sydney.
‘Dr Doolittle says:
Thursday, November 21, 2024 at 12:10 pm
Boerwar on Thur at 8.37 pm, and 8.07 and 10.50 am
The likely impact of Trump on global inflation is a reason for a 1 Mar not 17 May election….’
=====================
True.
I believe that one of the big four banks has changed its forecast for the next interest rate cut.
The next rate cut could be made after the election?
Oh well, maybe Labor, the Teals, and the Greens could hope for a long scorching hot summer to boost their chances at the election?
Global warming should be in full swing by then, surely 🙂
Thanks Dr.D, will do and I’ll def be floating around over summer.
I have a list, but need to do some thorough work in NSW, Vic & WA.
The rest of the states/territories I’m pretty confident on, but yes things can change v.quickly.
There’s a couple of really good posters on the site who are a good “matter of fact” read, and occasionally i’ll flick a question their way. A lot of those posters actually congregated on the recent QLD threads, but they’re not posters who are here all day, every day.
Per lars – that’s a bit of playtime with his predictions. No.8 he needs to wait until > Jan.20. All just mindless playtime.
Per the IQ of 13 comment. Sorry – it turned up directly under your post by accident as I wasn’t aware you were tapping away. Def no slur on you. I’ve pulled the comment anyway as it was silly.
Cheers, and hope all well with you. Look fwd to chatter over summer, espec as Jan 27 draws close.
No really Centre, as I remember it, Tim Flannery said it COULD happen if the climate started to change the way current projections were suggesting. So not a prediction but maybe I remember it wrong.
It is pretty well established that people see what they want or expect to and hear what they want when necessary to protect their prior beliefs.
Mexicanbeemer,
We were not told that in 2007 (your conclusion is wrong anyway) when it was the greatest moral challenge of our lifetime.
Now, you are starting to sound like the bible. No matter what the weather might be – it’s all got to do with climate change.
Great things, horrible things, god is great…
My favourite piece of futurism catastrophising – Ehrlich
The battle to feed all of humanity is over. In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate..
BUT we have finally heeded Erlich’s words and will hit peak population soon – this will apparently also be a catastrophe
Centre @ #234 Thursday, November 21st, 2024 – 2:50 pm
They did. Some got so frightened that they not only closed their eyes, they closed their minds.
I wouldn’t really call Destiny anything-left. He brags about platforming neo-nazis and antisemites like Nick Fuentes. He has taken a habit of watching civilians get shot in the face in Gaza and calling it TikTok farming. He’s a ghoul definitely, but centre-left no.
The criticism surrounding President-elect Donald Trump’s pick to lead the Pentagon hit the military’s top brass Wednesday.
Mark Milley, the retired U.S. Army general and former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, clapped back at the notion that women aren’t equipped to serve in combat roles – a view that conflicts with those expressed by Fox News weekend co-host Pete Hegseth, who Trump tapped as the country’s next defense secretary.
“Don’t lecture me about women in combat,” Milley said at a national security innovation event hosted by the Pallas Foundation, as reported by Politico. “Women have been in combat, and it doesn’t matter if that 7.62 [caliber round] hits you in the chest. No one gives a s— if it’s a woman or a guy to pull that trigger, you’re still dead.”
The comments came after Hegseth called to remove thousands of women from combat roles. Trump and Hegseth have both been critical of the military and what they refer to as a “woke” general, according to Politico.