As Newspoll off-weeks go, a big week for polling, with three further federal voting intention results following upon Freshwater Strategy:
• The fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor down a point to 30%, the Coalition up one to 35%, the Greens up one to 13% and One Nation down two to 7%, with undecided steady at 5%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor moving into a 48-47 lead, after trailing 49-47 last time. Also featured are the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Anthony Albanese down a point on approval to 43% and steady on 48% disapproval, while Peter Dutton is down three to 42% and up two to 41%. A regular “national mood” question reports an improved result off a low base, with a five-point increase in the sentiment that the country is heading in the right direction to 35%, and a four-point decrease for wrong track to 48%. A forced response question on the cause of hotter temperatures records only a 52-48 break in favour of climate change over normal fluctuations, although only 19% rate that Australia is doing too much to address the problem, compared with 33% for not enough and 37% for about right. The poll also finds only mildly negative views on the Trump administration’s likely impact on the global economy and global conflicts, and records 28% favouring Labor’s proposed 20% HECS debt cut over 36% for no change and 36% for abolishing student debt altogether. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1206.
• RedBridge Group has a federal poll recording a tie on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 34%, Coalition 39% and Greens 11%. Further findings from the poll include 54% approval of how Australian federal and state governments handled the COVID pandemic, with 42% disapproval; 53% awareness that the federal government rejected Qatar Airways’ application to increase flights to Australia, with 39% unaware; and 61% perceiving the government gave Qantas preferential treatment in the matter, with 11% disagreeing. The poll was conducted November 6 to 13 from a sample of 2011.
• Both the RedBridge Group poll and last week’s Resolve Strategic poll had questions on perceptions of the Greens. Resolve Strategic found the party was viewed positively by 24%, negatively by 44% and neutrally by 29%, while Adam Bandt was viewed positively by 10%, neutrally by 26% and negatively by 26%, with 38% unfamiliar. With six propositions to choose from, 38% of RedBridge’s respondents favoured clearly negative propositions against 29% for clearly positive, while 14% opted a broadly neutral “party of protest and disruption”.
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 50.5-49.5 to 51-49, from primary votes of Labor 29% (down one-and-a-half), Coalition 39% (up one-and-a-half), Greens 13.5% (up one) and One Nation 6.5% (steady). The two-party measure based on preference flows at the 2022 election is at 50-50, after Labor led 51-49 last week. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1675. Roy Morgan also has a forced response SMS poll, conducted during the royal visit on October 22 and 23 from a sample of 1312, recording a 61-39 split in favour of keeping the existing Australian flag.
• Also out this week was the regular quarterly Tasmanian state poll from EMRS, showing the Liberals’ lead at its narrowest in many a long year, with Labor up four to 31%, Liberal down one to 35%, the Greens steady on 14% and the Jacqui Lambie Network down two to 6%. Jeremy Rockliff’s lead over Dean Winter as preferred premier narrows from 45-30 to 43-37. Also featured are new questions inviting respondents to rate the leaders on a scale from zero to ten, recording 37% favourable, 36% neutral and 22% unfavourable for Rockliff, and 25% favourable, 38% neutral and 11% unfavourable for Winter. The poll was conducted November 5 to 14 from a sample of 1000.
Boerwar on Thur at 8.37 pm, and 8.07 and 10.50 am
The likely impact of Trump on global inflation is a reason for a 1 Mar not 17 May election.
For an informed analysis of the different impacts of Trump in Asia and Europe see this talk by Prof Adam Tooze, given in Zurich just after the US election (Tooze talk starts at 10 mins in):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cuQHV2CKdfE
He shifts from Trump to bigger historical factors fairly quickly, especially Beijing’s decisions.
Many interesting graphs, e.g. loss of Chinese consumer confidence from Mar 2022 (at 50 min).
Delivering improved infrastructure located in Australia including economic resilience and security infrastructure.
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Knowing Labor, I wouldnt be surprised if the Future Fund gets used to bail out the SRL.
Thomas @ #144 Thursday, November 21st, 2024 – 11:51 am
From memory, I seem to recall that the Future Fund was created for a specific purpose – i.e. to address the massive black hole that was left by the public service’s very generous but completely unfunded “defined benefit” retirement schemes.
Does anyone know if it has yet generated enough money to do that?
If not, that money will have to be found elsewhere, so this announcement is just a shuffling of deckchairs.
Dutton’s against Labor’s bill for free TAFE – dullards!
There is no doubt that the two examples you gave are racism. But like a lot of words, the original meaning of the term ‘racism’ has morphed into broader everyday usage. There is no way for example that you’ll ever convince a white person who has been called ‘a sack of white shit’ and spat on by a black person totally without provocation (as happened to a female member of my family some years ago) that that is not racism writ large.
Whatever the finer points of it, racism will only be dealt with most effectively if there is a general understanding that everyone deserves to be treated with respect, whatever the colour of their skin. Anything less than that will only make the problem worse.
Dutton’s against Labor’s bill for free TAFE – dullards!???????
Shows he’s an idiot, don’t vote for HIM !.
Irene @ #126 Thursday, November 21st, 2024 – 10:45 am
“This Albanese government will be viewed in the not too distant future as failing most Australians. An opportunity missed.
Can’t see such failures supported by many once Labor voters for long.
But like the ostrich, hides their collective heads in the sand.”
Just shows how little real awareness you have with your dire predictions made up without a skerrick of proof.
Personally I have no need to return to the 1950s/60s via Dutton’s channeling of Chairman Ming.
Player One says:
Thursday, November 21, 2024 at 12:09 pm
Stooge @ #148 Thursday, November 21st, 2024 – 11:55 am
You’ve obviously never been involved in Labor. There are very few differences between the factions on matters of substance. There are some totemic matters. But mostly the differences are token.
Clearly, you have never been to NSW.
The NSW Right are not the force they once could claim to be. Nationally, the Left have the numbers in Labor. The Party runs smoothly. The Right behave themselves most of the time.
At least the NSW Right still have a pulse. The Greens are politically betrothed to a mummified corpse.
And FINALLY the so called Future Fund is under the microscope – it established for PR purposes “to fill the Budget Black Hole”(said) due to the Contingent Liability being the Defined Benefit superannuation entitlements of politicians, public servants and the judiciary – and it just accrues money as an Investment Fund
Finally these funds (our money) are to be deployed to the benefit of society not the privileged few
No doubt the Tories and the Greens will kick up merry hell It is their money after all
Stooge @ #159 Thursday, November 21st, 2024 – 12:22 pm
Like Boerwar, you are obsessed with the Greens.
Good.
Dr Doolittle says:
Thursday, November 21, 2024 at 12:10 pm
Boerwar on Thur at 8.37 pm, and 8.07 and 10.50 am
The likely impact of Trump on global inflation is a reason for a 1 Mar not 17 May election.
If Trump follows through with his plans for tariffs there will be a massive hit to real wages in the US. The effects will be contractionary with respect to find demand and production, employment, investment and the fiscal balance.
If the EU respond by also increasing tariffs there will be very widespread destruction of real incomes, demand and employment in the industrial economies.
Trump is proposing the pervasive and punitive taxation of everyday consumer goods. The impact – if carried through – will be immense. Considering the hand-to-mouth existence of many low-income/ working-poor Americans, the effects in that economy will be almost immediate.
The Rivers of gold continued but the only mob that said we had better save some was Howard and Costello. It must haunt Labor to see that savings success just sit their and grow.
Player One says:
Thursday, November 21, 2024 at 12:27 pm
Stooge @ #159 Thursday, November 21st, 2024 – 12:22 pm
At least the NSW Right still have a pulse. The Greens are politically betrothed to a mummified corpse.
Like Boerwar, you are obsessed with the Greens.
Good.
Unlike the Apostasy I have occasional original idea.
Taylormade (from last night):
Thursday, November 21, 2024 at 12:12 pm
My opposition to Nadal playing in the Davis Cup quarters was based on his lack of match fitness, and I believed that with Alcatraz in the team, Spain had a chance of winning the Cup.
Botic van de Zandschulp, the guy who beat him (6-4 6-4), is ranked # 80 (18 November 2024). Had Nadal been match-fit, he should’ve beaten him. The Davis Cup is the only tennis tournament where players play for their country, not for themselves. I think it was an indulgence to pick Nadal to play.
I suppose a forced response has something to do with this? But still, 48% still don’t buy that the climate is changing induced by our activities. I thought this was 2024 not 1984.
Abc now…
Westpac changes rates forecast, pushes first cut back to May.
After the election suck on those apples federal labor!
It was some time ago but it was pointed out that the Future Fund wasn’t needed to fund defined benefits superannuation unless every single person with defined benefits retired on the same day. Remember that the seed capital came from the sale of Telstra, about $26 billion from memory. The fund is much bigger than that now.
Not only will the Future Fund not be required to fund superannuation, something it has never been used for, but the number of people on defined benefits is declining as well.
It makes sense therefore to use the fund to benefit people in future by using it to provide long term benefits. The only criteria should be that things that it is used for should provide a rate of return to the fund equivalent to what it is earning now.
Only 8 countries with a larger sovereign wealth funds than than Australia. Nearly all the big oil countries except Singapore and China, Norway is the only OECD country with a larger fund, also an oil fund. Raiding the fund will reinforce with voters belief that Labor can’t manage money and just can’t stop spending it either.
pied piper @ #167 Thursday, November 21st, 2024 – 12:21 pm
Hahaha! Eat shit, those who are struggling! What matters is my side’s lust for power!
I am starting to question the assumption of minority govt post election – it’s starting to smell like a change of govt to Prime Minister Peter Craig Dutton.
In nsw the right have maintained control for most of the last 70 years
Typical pied piper .Only for himself.
LVT
And the country will certainly deserve him, and maybe the whinging about Albo doing nothing will stop and we will go back to the same old trickle down shit we have had for years.
“I am starting to question the assumption of minority govt post election – it’s starting to smell like a change of govt to Prime Minister Peter Craig Dutton.”
________
Peak Albo 5.0 folks. Read all about it!
L’arse: your prognosticators suffer from the fact that your sniffs are taken from up your own arse – or up the arse of your fellow coterie of disaffected Anti-Labor party recruits. A sad and bitter mob.
Great to see a comment from a Teal Independent.
“There’s no doubt I’ve been the subject of much heckling from the opposition, and the leader of the opposition certainly takes every opportunity he can to turn his back on the Speaker and make plenty of snide remarks. But if he thinks that is going to intimidate me or change my determination to improve politics in Australia, he is sorely wrong.”
Dutton has no class and certainly is not prime ministerial. Once the election campaign starts the LNP will be the easy beats with the Teals taking votes from the moderates and christian zealots championing policies that the vast majority of the population have no interest in adopting.
Remember that Dutton is only leader because they have no one else, and would never contemplate a female in charge.
No policy Dutton is making sure he can impose anything when he gets into govt, by having as least promises as possible.
Granny Anny @ #168 Thursday, November 21st, 2024 – 12:51 pm
This is too simplistic. The Future Fund was not designed to make enough money to cope assuming it was going to be drained in a day, and nor was it intended to be used for funding retirees just yet – it was not supposed to be accessed at all until 2026/27. It was intended to help cope with the ongoing drain of funds that would begin to happen later than that, and peak as both the number of retirements grew and working population declined. Quite forward thinking, really.
Specifying a dedicated use for the money in the Future Fund today is just a way to get around the access restrictions and avoid having to fund those with other government funds.
In other words, the restrictions on the Future Fund were put there for a reason. And I believe that reason still applies.
The real primaries are probably Labor 27, Coalition 42. The greatest fall from grace of a government in living memory.
Lars Von Trier @ #171 Thursday, November 21st, 2024 – 12:55 pm
The best answer to that is to make sure it is a minority government no matter which faction of the Duopoly actually wins.
The information is freely available but the current unfunded liability for the Commonwealth’s defined benefit pensions is 160B. This will continue to rise to 2040 and reduce to 60B by 2060. The future fund will be mainly used to pay this, the greatest graft in Australian history
steve davissays:
Thursday, November 21, 2024 at 1:01 pm
LVT
And the country will certainly deserve him, and maybe the whinging about Albo doing nothing will stop and we will go back to the same old trickle down shit we have had for years.
___________________________________________
If it does happen – I cant see the Libs lasting more than a single term either.
Oakeshott countrysays:
Thursday, November 21, 2024 at 1:09 pm
The information is freely available but the current unfunded liability for the Commonwealth’s defined benefit pensions is 160B. This will continue to rise to 2040 and reduce to 60B by 2060. The future fund will be mainly used to pay this, the greatest graft in Australian history
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A Royal Commission needed to expose the joke to sunlight.
Steelydan @ #169 Thursday, November 21st, 2024 – 12:54 pm
17, according to Wikipedia …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sovereign_wealth_fund
Also, I have not delved deeply, but can a fund that is (or was supposed to be) dedicated to addressing a single issue considered a “sovereign wealth” fund?
Mind you, this bit certainly sounds like something Australia would do …
We apparently think we are allowed to wear the big boy trousers because we have a SWF. But our SWF is there only to address a serious issue of appalling financial mismanagement, so in fact all it probably does is make us look like a swaggering juvenile strutting around in daddy’s rolled up trousers.
Luv a divorce ugly shite fight!
Max Mason
Senior reporter/Afr Today.
Nov 21, 2024 – 12.05pm
Billionaire Visy heiress Heloise Pratt alleges her ex-husband, prominent investor Alex Waislitz, falsified board meeting records to pay out money from their company to himself and his foundation over her.
The Pratt family fortune is worth about $27 billion, most of which is made up of the Visy packaging and recycling empire. Visy Australia is worth $10 billion, and the family has other assets including property. Visy’s American operations, which are not part of the family trust, are worth $15 billion.
Regarding below trend for over a year was labor 57-43 now behind 49-51 not a stretch to say they will be lucky to win outright in fact given fed labor gov duds still in same positions expect trend to continue.
First Future Fund chairman David Murray slams Labor’s changes
John Kehoe
John Kehoe
Economics editor
Updated Nov 21, 2024 – 12.13pm,
first published at 10.12am
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The first Future Fund chairman, David Murray, says the organisation risks investing taxpayer money in “boondoggle” projects after Treasurer Jim Chalmers directed it to prioritise investments in housing, renewable energy and infrastructure.
Mr Murray, chairman from 2006 to 2012, said Labor was interfering in the independence of the fund, and investment returns of the $230 billion sovereign wealth fund would become more vulnerable.
Are you locked in with that Lars, or has the Future Fund issue caused a rethink your end.
We had a poster yesterday who was the first on the site to call a Lib win next year.
KB & Mark the Ballot joined WB this week in awarding the LNP a 2PP lead.
The Guardian poll tracker has a quite significant LNP 2PP lead.
The betting odds flipped on Saturday in favour of the Libs.
Boer & myself (And I suppose most) still think it’s an ALP minority, a v.v.slim one for me, &
I think Scott is on his own in thinking it will be an ALP majority.
Leaning at the moment nadia88 I’ll make my final call in my end of year predictions for 2025. I know a lot of people look forward to the predictions including you.
LVT
What if we brought some equity to the situation. The defined benefit pension to be indexed to the Future Funds performance.
There is no political evidence of non lib/nats voters changing their vote to the federal Lib/nats or lib/nats aligned parties , which will be very little to no chance of Lib/nats forming a minority government
Don’t know where the federal Lib/nats are going to pick up 14 to 15 seats to get to 70 seats
2025 federal election
If there is no 3%+ swing Against Peter Dutton in Dickson ,
Angus Taylor ,Sussan Ley are likely be the only threat to the Dutton for the Federal Liberal Party leadership and opposition leader
mikehilliard says:
Thursday, November 21, 2024 at 12:49 pm
A forced response question on the cause of hotter temperatures records only a 52-48 break in favour of climate change over normal fluctuations
I suppose a forced response has something to do with this? But still, 48% still don’t buy that the climate is changing induced by our activities. I thought this was 2024 not 1984.
=========================================
mikehilliard,
There was a bit of a chat on the site last night.
I think the “politics of climate change” is ebbing as a priority for voters.
Voters are moving away from it around the world, and/or changing gov’t’s if necessary.
Wasn’t aware of that polling you posted above, but there you have it.
Sacre Bleu OC, that would have people reaching for the smelling salts all over Manuka and Red Hill.
I’ve got you down for 6.5 out of 9 so far.
Just waiting on Pred No.8.
I thought the commentary and marking on Sunday evening was quite harsh. Brutal in fact.
Probably need to see the polls after parliament concludes.
Gloves appear to be coming off between the 3 majors. I almost get the impression they hate each other.
nadia88
I think Scott is on his own in thinking it will be an ALP majority.
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Most likely outcome will be a minority but the ALP could get a majority if Albo gets his act together on a few policies and if labor win the campaign because the polling and byelections point to swings in safer seats.
Going on on opinion polling ,
Federal Lib/nats combined primary vote at best is sitting at 38%
Labor primary vote 33%
at the moment + this is my opinion
The 5% gap between the primary votes, suggest its 51% labor Majority at this point
Texas official offers 1,400-acre ranch to Trump to build his deportation camps
The Texas Land Commissioner has offered President-elect Donald Trump 1,402 acres along the U.S.–Mexico border near Rio Grande City to build deportation facilities as part of his mass deportation plan.
In a letter, sent to Trump on Tuesday, commissioner Dawn Buckingham offered up a recently acquired plot of land located in Starr County to build facilities that will help law enforcement coordinate, process and detain undocumented immigrants. The exact plot offered has not been revealed.
She told Fox News she fully supports Trump’s efforts to deport every undocumented immigrant – a promise he made the cornerstone of his presidential campaign.
https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/other/texas-official-offers-1-400-acre-ranch-to-trump-to-build-his-deportation-camps/ar-AA1us5EQ?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=48956cd8a905459d9d0803c8eb7e8f51&ei=45
Player one
I took the liberty of not counting the same countries twice that were higher than us and you would have known this had you looked up wikipedia as you state. No need to lie to make a point, how many lies do you get before you have no credibility.
I am not sure what world you come from that balancing budgets with massive surpluses, actually paying down debt and setting up a sovereign wealth fund in a time of plenty is a “appalling financial mismanagement” Just crazy talk .
Such are the travails of the truth teller nadia88. This cruel vale of tears…..
Trying to create a larger sovereign wealth fund in Australia, while we are still nearly a trillion dollars in the red thanks to the great budget destroyers, Joe Hockey and Scott Morrison, is madness.
We ought to pay down our debts before putting “spare” money into investments.
The budget damage done by Ali Morrison and his 40 thieves (or whatever size his cabinet was) cannot be undone in one term.
nadia88 @1.26pm
The polling is in Williams lead in.
I/m wondering as the evidence of climate change becomes more irrefutable the greater the inclination for some to just want to deny it, or be told it’s a load of crap.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denialism
Scott says:
Thursday, November 21, 2024 at 1:32 pm
Going on on opinion polling ,
Federal Lib/nats combined primary vote at best is sitting at 38%
Labor primary vote 33%
at the moment + this is my opinion
The 5% gap between the primary votes, suggest its 51% labor Majority at this point
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Fair call and i think we’re on the same page that (as of today) a fair chunk of that LNP vote may be locked up in QLD, which won’t help the LNP with lots of additional seats.
Have to see what the polls say in the Dec, and then the first biggie of next year when get a Newspoll on/around Sunday 2-Feb.
mikehilliard says:
Thursday, November 21, 2024 at 12:49 pm
A forced response question on the cause of hotter temperatures records only a 52-48 break in favour of climate change over normal fluctuations
I suppose a forced response has something to do with this? But still, 48% still don’t buy that the climate is changing induced by our activities. I thought this was 2024 not 1984.
————————
Climate change has become a non issue for the duopoly, the Labor, and LNP Parties. And they both like it that way.
On Tuesday sat next to a woman, 66, who immediately decided to inform me that, as the Global atmospheric CO2, was barely changed over the last century, it is not burning fossil fuels that is the reason why global temperatures are increasing.
Alan Jones, broadcaster, in the news recently, had this statement as fact. Why burning fossil fuels was not causing climate change. His influence will be still strong.
This statement (probably never heard ). In 2023, the average concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere was 419.3 parts per million (ppm), which is 50% higher than before the Industrial Revolution, is meaningless to many.
Another on radio this morning said volcanic eruptions produce more CO2 than burning fossil fuel.
Without people given full explanation. That burning fossil fuels create greenhouse gases, CO2, methane, that are trapped in our closed atmosphere heating the oceans and the air, melting glaciers and ice caps, changing seasons (farmers notice change in planting times), insect spread extends to now warmer places,….
Rudd’s ‘climate change is the greatest moral challenge of our time’ was abandoned by Labor after the Shorten, Farrell, other right faction people led coup against Rudd in June 2010.
Gillard’s price on carbon was correct, but she was unpopular probably for the coup against a Labor PM voters wanted. And so couldn’t carry it to an election win. Rudd likely could have.
People are unaware. Labor, of course is too scared of media backlash to mention global warming, to bring out the study they received in December 2022 of the significant dangers to Australians of more higher intensity bushfires, floods, droughts, cyclones……
A much greater risk to Australians safety than the ‘enemy’ we are buying the $368billion AUKUS submarines to fight.
What duds the Labor leadership are. Only interested in their re-election, not the voters. Similar to the US Democrats. Lower income voters needs are of no concern to them.