Polls: Essential, RedBridge, Morgan, EMRS Tasmanian (open thread)

Three pollsters chime in with federal voting intention numbers, while a fourth finds state Labor gaining ground in Tasmania.

As Newspoll off-weeks go, a big week for polling, with three further federal voting intention results following upon Freshwater Strategy:

• The fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor down a point to 30%, the Coalition up one to 35%, the Greens up one to 13% and One Nation down two to 7%, with undecided steady at 5%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor moving into a 48-47 lead, after trailing 49-47 last time. Also featured are the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Anthony Albanese down a point on approval to 43% and steady on 48% disapproval, while Peter Dutton is down three to 42% and up two to 41%. A regular “national mood” question reports an improved result off a low base, with a five-point increase in the sentiment that the country is heading in the right direction to 35%, and a four-point decrease for wrong track to 48%. A forced response question on the cause of hotter temperatures records only a 52-48 break in favour of climate change over normal fluctuations, although only 19% rate that Australia is doing too much to address the problem, compared with 33% for not enough and 37% for about right. The poll also finds only mildly negative views on the Trump administration’s likely impact on the global economy and global conflicts, and records 28% favouring Labor’s proposed 20% HECS debt cut over 36% for no change and 36% for abolishing student debt altogether. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1206.

• RedBridge Group has a federal poll recording a tie on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 34%, Coalition 39% and Greens 11%. Further findings from the poll include 54% approval of how Australian federal and state governments handled the COVID pandemic, with 42% disapproval; 53% awareness that the federal government rejected Qatar Airways’ application to increase flights to Australia, with 39% unaware; and 61% perceiving the government gave Qantas preferential treatment in the matter, with 11% disagreeing. The poll was conducted November 6 to 13 from a sample of 2011.

• Both the RedBridge Group poll and last week’s Resolve Strategic poll had questions on perceptions of the Greens. Resolve Strategic found the party was viewed positively by 24%, negatively by 44% and neutrally by 29%, while Adam Bandt was viewed positively by 10%, neutrally by 26% and negatively by 26%, with 38% unfamiliar. With six propositions to choose from, 38% of RedBridge’s respondents favoured clearly negative propositions against 29% for clearly positive, while 14% opted a broadly neutral “party of protest and disruption”.

• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 50.5-49.5 to 51-49, from primary votes of Labor 29% (down one-and-a-half), Coalition 39% (up one-and-a-half), Greens 13.5% (up one) and One Nation 6.5% (steady). The two-party measure based on preference flows at the 2022 election is at 50-50, after Labor led 51-49 last week. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1675. Roy Morgan also has a forced response SMS poll, conducted during the royal visit on October 22 and 23 from a sample of 1312, recording a 61-39 split in favour of keeping the existing Australian flag.

• Also out this week was the regular quarterly Tasmanian state poll from EMRS, showing the Liberals’ lead at its narrowest in many a long year, with Labor up four to 31%, Liberal down one to 35%, the Greens steady on 14% and the Jacqui Lambie Network down two to 6%. Jeremy Rockliff’s lead over Dean Winter as preferred premier narrows from 45-30 to 43-37. Also featured are new questions inviting respondents to rate the leaders on a scale from zero to ten, recording 37% favourable, 36% neutral and 22% unfavourable for Rockliff, and 25% favourable, 38% neutral and 11% unfavourable for Winter. The poll was conducted November 5 to 14 from a sample of 1000.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,093 thoughts on “Polls: Essential, RedBridge, Morgan, EMRS Tasmanian (open thread)”

  1. Player One says:
    Thursday, November 21, 2024 at 10:03 am

    Boerwar @ #83 Thursday, November 21st, 2024 – 9:34 am

    Here is one for P1 and the rest of youse as well…

    ‘I fly, I drive. We’re all complicit’: Richard Flanagan on vanishing species and refusing the Baillie Gifford prize money

  2. I don’t buy this idea that white people are discriminated against.

    Racism is about the idea that one group of people of a particular colour actually believe that another group of people of a different colour are actually inferior. It’s also about one group of people of a particular colour having power and using it to oppress another group of people of a different colour.

    Just sounds to me like white whingers whining on.

    Having said that, it’s not always about colour. The English were racist against the Irish for centuries – although not now. So language and culture comes into it too.

    And having said that, there are some cultural practices, like female genital mutilation, that most western people find appalling. And I don’t think that’s racist.

  3. @ naff:

    “Probably political cowardice”

    Possibly, but IMO such an assertion is just the glib one liner put down that is so easy to make and simply walk off without really engaging.

    My view is that political reality is what drives the lack of action to set up an elected indigenous advisory body.

    The no campaign has given licence for the bigots to ‘say the quiet bit out loud’ and offensively. The backlash against indigenous peoples is palpable. Via marriage my extended family are indigenous and the story from them and our indigenous relatives and friends is that have all experienced more overt and threatening racism in the last 18 months than the previous two decades combined. Licence for this hostility has been given – indeed amplified – by the LNP leadership and their useful idiots like Price.

    The greatest fear for the creation of an indigenous representative body is that an opportunistic LNP leader will triangulate against it and simply abolish it. Backlash against indigenous folk is an awesome political weapon to shave votes off Labor in rural, regional and outer urban areas. It even plays well amongst ‘aspirational’ middle class and middle aged first generation migrants.

    Therefore if Albo simply legislated an indigenous body Dutton would campaign – hard – against it. Price and Co would be mobilised to once again punch down against their indigenous brothers and sisters and my extended family and friends would – like most indigenous folk – once again cop it in the neck. Dutton could expect to shave off a few % in several marginal seats and that may be enough to win government and then … the body would be scrapped … just like Gillard’s ETS was scrapped.

    ‘Political cowardice’ is a cheap slur. The reality is more palpable.

  4. Ooh look … yet again Boerwar resorts to simply repeating his silly comment when criticized.

    The only surprise is that he has not yet thrown in the Greens. Or China.

    Starting stopwatch … **click** …

  5. Andrew_Earlwoodsays:
    Thursday, November 21, 2024 at 10:11 am
    “Probably political cowardice”

    Possibly, but IMO such an assertion is just the glib one liner put down that is so easy to make and simply walk off without really engaging.

    My view is that political reality is what drives the lack of action to set up an elected indigenous advisory body.

    The no campaign has given licence for the bigots to ‘say the quiet bit out loud’ and offensively. The backlash against indigenous peoples is palpable. Via marriage my extended family are indigenous and the story from them and our indigenous relatives and friends is that have all experienced more overt and threatening racism in the last 18 months than the previous two decades combined. Licence for this hostility has been given – indeed amplified – by the LNP leadership and their useful idiots like Price.

    The greatest fear for the creation of an indigenous representative body is that an opportunistic LNP leader will triangulate against it and simply abolish it. Backlash against indigenous folk is an awesome political weapon to shave votes off Labor in rural, regional and outer urban areas. It even plays well amongst ‘aspirational’ middle class and middle aged first generation migrants.

    Therefore if Albo simply legislated an indigenous body Dutton would campaign – hard – against it. Price and Co would be mobilised to once again punch down against their indigenous brothers and sisters and my extended family and friends would – like most indigenous folk – once again cop it in the neck. Dutton could expect to shave off a few % in several marginal seats and that may be enough to win government and then … the body would be scrapped … just like Gillard’s ETS was scrapped.

    ‘Political cowardice’ is a cheap slur. The reality is more palpable.
    _______________________________
    Oh, so Labor won’t ever prosecute the case for an Indigenous Representative body because it will motivate violence against indigenous people. I find that absurd.

    Or as you say, because of the fear that Dutton will shave a few points off marginal seats and win government. That my friend is political cowardice.

    I guess the can will be kicked down the road for a decade or so. Great.

    But I can’t pretend to have skin in the game. I’m not indigenous. Perhaps they should start negotiations with Dutton.

  6. gollsays:
    Thursday, November 21, 2024 at 9:54 am
    Dave

    My main concern now is why doesn’t the Albanese government legislate for an Indigenous Representative Body? What is stopping them?

    Probably political cowardice

    Perhaps the young fellas who throw rocks at FUBAR’s car should throw a few your way for that lousy attempted sucker punch.
    ______________________

    So you don’t think indigenous Australians should have a representative body?

    Yet you did when the Voice was argued for.

    Sucker punch #2
    I didn’t say what you attributed to me.

    Do you honestly believe that the Senate as it is now structured would allow the establishment of a “representative indigenous body” ?
    And don’t attempt to say yes, as it would be FUBAR ish of you.
    Why would you fill up Dutton and FUBAR’s basket of rocks to throw at Labor this close to an election ?
    And the FUBARS of this great expanse of real estate would think all their Christmas wishes came at once including the snow.

    The only cowards Dave are the selfish lousy self centred pricks who couldn’t bring themselves to give the First Australians “a voice” , let alone “a fair go”.

    FUBAR and the like were born to be “cadet under officers” and retain that rank for life.

    Dave, there is probably a reasonable, honest genuine person behind your facade, you just like rocks being thrown at you.

  7. Boer’s campaign against the ChiComms greenhouse credentials is rapidly falling apart (see Fred’s YouTube video at the beginning of the thread).

    86% of new power last year in China was renewables: 200GWatts+.

    Approvals for new coal power stations has collapsed. Over 70% of China’s existing coal fired power stations are now loss makers. Mainly because they can’t operate profitably at 70%+ capacity because of the uptake in renewables. It is likely that the entire fleet will soon be moth balled for six-nine months of each year and only used in the bitter northern winter. One can easily see them all being decommissioned within 15 years, but which time the big three drivers – energy, industry and transport will be largely electrified and powered by renewables.

    The ChiComms may not get to ‘net zero’ by 2040, but net 10% (ie. a 90% reduction in peak emissions by 2040) is starting to appear over the horizon.

  8. The most recent Economic Complexity Index rankings continue a downward slide for Australia, which has fallen from 93rd to 102nd.

    The figures, compiled by the Growth Lab at the Harvard Kennedy School, were updated in September, though have not been noted in news coverage since.

    According to Australia’s profile in the Atlas of Economic Complexity – which illustrates the ECI performance of 145 countries – the lower result is down to “a lack of diversification of exports”. While these have grown in value by an average of nearly 10 per cent a year for the last five, there is a “troubling⁩ pattern of export growth”.

    The Luddites and lobyists are winning! This is a horrible indictment.

    https://www.aumanufacturing.com.au/australia-goes-from-terrible-to-worse-in-economic-complexity-but-nobody-seems-to-notice?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=au_manufacturing&utm_campaign=au_manufacturing

  9. gollsays:

    Why would you fill up Dutton and FUBAR’s basket of rocks to throw at Labor this close to an election ?
    _______________
    Umm, because despite being occasionally full of myself, I don’t presume to think that my posts will have any impact on the forthcoming election.

    And secondly, because I like expressing my opinion.

  10. ‘Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Thursday, November 21, 2024 at 10:11 am

    @ naff:

    “Probably political cowardice”

    Possibly, but IMO such an assertion is just the glib one liner put down that is so easy to make and simply walk off without really engaging.

    My view is that political reality is what drives the lack of action to set up an elected indigenous advisory body.

    The no campaign has given licence for the bigots to ‘say the quiet bit out loud’ and offensively. The backlash against indigenous peoples is palpable. Via marriage my extended family are indigenous and the story from them and our indigenous relatives and friends is that have all experienced more overt and threatening racism in the last 18 months than the previous two decades combined. Licence for this hostility has been given – indeed amplified – by the LNP leadership and their useful idiots like Price.

    The greatest fear for the creation of an indigenous representative body is that an opportunistic LNP leader will triangulate against it and simply abolish it. Backlash against indigenous folk is an awesome political weapon to shave votes off Labor in rural, regional and outer urban areas. It even plays well amongst ‘aspirational’ middle class and middle aged first generation migrants.

    Therefore if Albo simply legislated an indigenous body Dutton would campaign – hard – against it. Price and Co would be mobilised to once again punch down against their indigenous brothers and sisters and my extended family and friends would – like most indigenous folk – once again cop it in the neck. Dutton could expect to shave off a few % in several marginal seats and that may be enough to win government and then … the body would be scrapped … just like Gillard’s ETS was scrapped.

    ‘Political cowardice’ is a cheap slur. The reality is more palpable.’
    =========================
    On the increase in experienced racism, true. I don’t know how many times I have heard that directly from Indigenous people.

    Disgusting Dutton owns that, in part. It is in his genes.

    I would add a bit of history and a conceptual consideration.

    During the Voice Dutton flipped significantly.
    He announced that he would hold another referendum on the Voice should he became prime minister. After a week of being belted around the ears by his own side, he flipped 180 degrees on that.

    The conceptual consideration is that the colonizers voted by way of the Referendum not to give Indigenous people a Voice. They gave up any prospect of post colonial legitimacy – which was the gift on the table by way of the Uluru Declaration from the Heart.

    I note in this context that one of the first actions of the LNP Government in Queensland was to shut down truth telling. As well they might.

    An ersatz small ‘v’ Voice flies in the face of the Referendum outcome and the rejection of legitimacy it embodies.

  11. ‘BK says:
    Thursday, November 21, 2024 at 10:24 am

    The most recent Economic Complexity Index rankings continue a downward slide for Australia, which has fallen from 93rd to 102nd.

    The figures, compiled by the Growth Lab at the Harvard Kennedy School, were updated in September, though have not been noted in news coverage since.

    According to Australia’s profile in the Atlas of Economic Complexity – which illustrates the ECI performance of 145 countries – the lower result is down to “a lack of diversification of exports”. While these have grown in value by an average of nearly 10 per cent a year for the last five, there is a “troubling⁩ pattern of export growth”.

    The Luddites and lobyists are winning! This is a horrible indictment.

    https://www.aumanufacturing.com.au/australia-goes-from-terrible-to-worse-in-economic-complexity-but-nobody-seems-to-notice?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=au_manufacturing&utm_campaign=au_manufacturing
    ==========================
    I would rate this after climate change as the single biggest issue for Australia. The Albanese Government shows some policy and program signs of wanting to address this but all it gets in response is rounds of the kitchen table by Dutton, Bandt & Co.

    It is almost as if we are intent on emulating Argentina.

  12. Dave,

    Oh, so Labor won’t ever prosecute the case for an Indigenous Representative body because it will motivate violence against indigenous people. I find that absurd.

    Or as you say, because of the fear that Dutton will shave a few points off marginal seats and win government. That my friend is political cowardice.

    I guess the can will be kicked down the road for a decade or so. Great.

    But I can’t pretend to have skin in the game. I’m not indigenous. Perhaps they should start negotiations with Dutton.

    That little diatribe of “bullshit” puts you in the FUBAR camp.
    Stop being an itch on the bum of sensibility.

  13. ‘Deepening understanding about transmisogyny

    Welcome back to the Medium Newsletter

    Today is Transgender Day of Remembrance, a time to mourn and pay tribute to those murdered for just living as who they are. 350 trans people have been murdered globally in 2024, 29 more than in 2023. Here are just a few of them.

    Often, their deaths go underreported and underinvestigated, and their murderers are unpunished. Most of them are Black and migrant trans women.

    On Medium, social psychologist Devon Price unpacks a study that tries to figure out why this is happening. What’s the root of this bigotry? NYU psychology professor Jaime Napier analyzed the results of a 23-country, 16,000-person survey. She found that people tend to be more vocally prejudiced against trans women than trans men.

    Why?

    Prejudice is layered. Author and trans activist Julia Serano coined the term “transmisogyny” in 2007 to name the intersection between transphobia and misogyny. She’s since written on Medium about how the term has been used in ways she didn’t anticipate — and why we need better, more specific language for how humans express gender and sexuality.

    But what’s happening here, according to Napier, goes deeper than the fact that trans women are marginalized in two ways at once. Napier finds that people may be more biased against trans women than trans men because they view trans women as gay men, and most cultures punish men more aggressively than women for going against gender norms. Women are punished for transgressing, too, but in more insidious ways — usually by people who doubt their sexuality or gender in the first place, think it’s a phase, or a cover.

    That’s why, Price writes, Napier’s study is so important: “It’s a piece of carefully collected evidence that trans women and their allies can point to as proof that bias against trans femmes really is a societal problem,” and it doesn’t stop asking “why?”

    A few more survey results deepened and complicated my understanding — like the fact that “when controlling for anti-gay bias, highly religious people were actually less biased against trans folks than the non-religious were.’

  14. “Labor won’t ever prosecute the case …”

    Fuck off Dave.

    I am explaining why there has not been an indigenous ‘voice’ type body legislated this term in the wake of the referendum vote.

    Not ‘forever’.

    The task for us – and I mean all folk of good will – is to rebuild.

    The melancholy truth is that the heat has to subside first. I think we need to see Dutton well and truly off the political stage, for Lachy to do what he has always done as a Nepo-baby and squander his inheritance and for the present wave of right wing popularism to subside in their absence before the space opens up again. I would like to see this addressed next term, but in reality I think it will be a decade or more. Alas.

  15. davesays:
    Thursday, November 21, 2024 at 10:24 am
    gollsays:

    Why would you fill up Dutton and FUBAR’s basket of rocks to throw at Labor this close to an election ?
    _______________

    Umm, because despite being occasionally full of myself, I don’t presume to think that my posts will have any impact on the forthcoming election.

    And secondly, because I like expressing my opinion.

    And thirdly you like being an irritant!

  16. The melancholy truth is that the heat has to subside first. I think we need to see Dutton well and truly off the political stage, for Lachy to do what he has always done as a Nepo-baby and squander his inheritance and for the present wave of right wing popularism to subside in their absence before the space opens up again.
    _______________
    well Amen to that.

  17. I don’t know how Dutton can make the case against a legislated indigenous representative body. He argued against it being in the constitution but Howard, Abbott, Fraser, et al all created indigenous representative bodies. Has he actually said he would oppose any IRP that is put forward?

  18. So a Senior Liberal addresses a function for Immigration Agents and Private Colleges who are Liberal Party donors.
    Says it all really.
    ______
    As does the name of said Liberal.

  19. There are people alive today with memories of their relatives, young men, being held in police station cells in country towns until a pastoralist needed them for work. Upon completion of the task they were returned to their cells.

    They have eye-witness evidence to give.

    Truth and justice demands that evidence is recorded before they die.

    But, of course, you are all right. It’s not going to happen because Australians don’t want to know. If they knew they might have to do something about it.

    And, anyway, we should all move on. It’s not as if the experiences of one generation influence the behaviour of the next.

  20. In SA new Black MP Alex Dighton has recorded strong results among pre-poll and postal voters as counting continues following Saturday’s Black by-election. Labor’s Mr Dighton remained ahead of Liberal candidate Amanda Wilson 60.1-39.9 per cent on a two-party preferred basis as the count progressed on Wednesday afternoon.
    More than 10,000 declaration ballots – votes that were not cast on election day – have been added to the tally this week. Declaration votes typically favour the Liberals but Mr Dighton has managed to retain his substantial election-night lead.

  21. Boerwar says:
    Thursday, November 21, 2024 at 10:07 am
    Player One says:
    Thursday, November 21, 2024 at 10:03 am

    Boerwar @ #83 Thursday, November 21st, 2024 – 9:34 am

    Here is one for P1 and the rest of youse as well…

    ‘I fly, I drive. We’re all complicit’: Richard Flanagan on vanishing species and refusing the Baillie Gifford prize money

    —————————-

    I admire Richard Flanagan, but he has got this wrong. He is letting governments off the hook in their duty to protect Australians, world peoples, as the Albanese government increases fossil fuel emissions.

    Of course BW would agree. He blames people’s decisions, never the ones by Labor. Labor supports increasing greenhouse gases, fossil fuel emissions by approving more coal mines, more gas drilling.

    If Labor was serious this wouldn’t be their policy. Of course this policy is decided by accepting the fossil fuel, often multinational US companies, donations. For their donations they buy Albanese Labor government policies.

    Labor could support rapid increase, subsidies for buying electric and hybrid cars for individuals, more charging stations, significantly subsidised roof top solar and batteries.

    But Labor is not interested in lower income people’s needs. Now the party supporting the US, business and wealthier Australians. Just like the Liberals.

    Wasting $368billion on the AUKUS deal shows how uninterested Labor is in their role in increasing global warming. Our biggest moral challenge which Albanese fails badly.

    And no more approvals for new coal and gas projects. Increase our export income by increasing overseas student numbers, rapidly build more accommodation for low income people.

    As an alternative for the low return export coal and gas brings in.

    BW supports the Liberal line of people limiting their life options to hide how the Albanese government is failing.

    This Albanese government will be viewed in the not too distant future as failing most Australians. An opportunity missed.

    Can’t see such failures supported by many once Labor voters for long.

    While global temperatures are rising, ice caps and glaciers melting and Australia is a significant contributor to this with the Albanese government policies of increasing exports of fossil fuels.

    But like the ostrich, hides their collective heads in the sand.

  22. ‘Andrew_Earlwood says:
    Thursday, November 21, 2024 at 10:23 am

    Boer’s campaign against the ChiComms greenhouse credentials is rapidly falling apart (see Fred’s YouTube video at the beginning of the thread).

    86% of new power last year in China was renewables: 200GWatts+.

    Approvals for new coal power stations has collapsed. Over 70% of China’s existing coal fired power stations are now loss makers. Mainly because they can’t operate profitably at 70%+ capacity because of the uptake in renewables. It is likely that the entire fleet will soon be moth balled for six-nine months of each year and only used in the bitter northern winter. One can easily see them all being decommissioned within 15 years, but which time the big three drivers – energy, industry and transport will be largely electrified and powered by renewables.

    The ChiComms may not get to ‘net zero’ by 2040, but net 10% (ie. a 90% reduction in peak emissions by 2040) is starting to appear over the horizon.’
    ===================================
    It is good news. Without a doubt. Bad news for Australians who enjoy the government services delivered by taxes on coal exports… but I digress.

    What happens next is hard to predict.

    There have been massive structural changes.

    Probably the single biggest energy user – the construction industry – has collapsed.

    Xi has subsidised solar panels, solar cars and batteries to the tune of $230 billion and growing quite fast.

    This created a perfect storm of results.
    The first is massive solar arrays with distribution lines.
    The second is a massive capacity in battery manufacture.
    The third is the capacity to build around 40 million EVs a year.
    All three are transforming China’s energy economy.

    If you lift the lid:

    Around half the (massive) battery manufacturing capacity is sitting idle.
    (I don’t know the situation with panels but these are being dumped at knock down prices O/S).

    On current trajectories, most of the EV manufacturers will go broke.

    Some of the EV manufacturers least likely to go broke are still being subsidised but have huge debts. BYD has a debt of around $73 billion, for example.

    There is a trade war in which car making countries around the war are protecting their manufacturing plants against the dumping of 20 million EVs a year.

    The known unknowns in the above scenario:
    1. What impact will a global anti-China tariff war have?
    2. Will Xi be able to continue to subsidize the E manufacturing base?
    3. Will Xi be able to continue to sit on the steadily growing pressure of societal discontent.

    China’s economy is in trouble. Private equity is fleeing China. If it can.

    I agree that there is a substantial change but note that projections from here are on rocky foundations.

  23. Some of the EV manufacturers least likely to go broke are still being subsidised but have huge debts. BYD has a debt of around $73 billion, for example.
    ___________________
    Not too bad. Toyota’s debt is about $150 billion.

  24. I think Mercedes is about $150 billion in debt too.

    All of the ICE car makers have massive debts. It’s a tough business.

    Tesla has $20 billion in debt, which is probably the healthiest around, and they could easily repay that if they wanted to.

  25. Listening to Jim Chalmers being interviewed now, with a great put down of Dutton and the Liberals.

    I have some sympathy for Albanese. I think he’s probably a decent bloke but he hasn’t been a great PM.

    Chalmers would be a much better Labor leader.

  26. @naff (part 2):

    “Or as you say, because of the fear that Dutton will shave a few points off marginal seats and win government. That my friend is political cowardice.”

    ____

    Boer or Meher will probably correct me if I have this wrong, but I think it was Manning Clarke who opined that there were only two political parties in Australia – Labor and anti-Labor.

    The anti-Labor party has three factions.

    The first two comprise the official wing of the anti-Labor party- namely the 80 year old marketing scam known as the Liberal Party and the rural socialists and genocidists presently operating under three separate brands – The National Party, the NT Country Liberal Party and the chimera creation of Mal Brough – the Queensland Liberal National Party.

    The last faction of the Anti-Labor party are made up of every one else who demands that Labor ritually and habitually commits little and big acts of political seppuku ‘on principle’ and then damming Labor when it doesn’t. Members of this faction can historically be found both within the Labor party and without. Historical examples of this include the 20 year campaign to rub Gough Whitlam out of politics by ‘the left’ over his pivot way from all the left wing shibboleths that left Labor unelectable for two decades.

    Labor is not an ideological monastery. It is a mainstream political party whose whole raison d’ atre is to form government and enact as much progressive reform as it can get away with in a society that is fundamentally conservative and materialistic in nature. As some sort of organism it understands – or at its best it understands – that it cannot do so by simply staying inside its own tent or preaching to the converted. Or may never truly convert ‘swinging voters’ but it must still bring sufficient number of them – at least in the seats that matter – to form government. To do so it must be ruthlessly politically pragmatic. Graham Fruedenberg best summed it up in an aphorism that formed the title of his history of the NSW Labor Party – “Cause for Power”.

    You call this political cowardice. … I wonder whether you have ever even tried … let alone succeeded … in bringing a diverse group of people together and finding common ground? That is the hard thing. In my experience to do that often requires compromise. Including the discipline of not demanding everything – or even most things – in order to obtain a tangible outcome. That is the hard thing to do. Really hard.

    You want to talk about ‘political cowardice’. The epitome of political cowardice is to sit behind a fake name in the comfort of Melbourne suburbia and dam the one and only team that is actually in the Arena fighting the good fight each and every day trying to actually land outcomes by the hard road. We can actually see this third faction of the anti-Labor party at ‘work’ (if you can call it work) each and every day on Bludger:

    Integrity
    Irene
    You
    L’arse
    Etc etc

    None of you dare step into the area but exist only as avatars to trip up those that ARE. Political cowards? The very definition.

  27. dave
    Quite right. There is an existential struggle over the future of the global vehicle manufacturing industries. The huge debts of legacy ICE makers in the West is a massive drag. One of the issues is that it is cheaper to new build a car making factory than it is to reconfigure an existing build.
    The uncertainty of the outcome feeds into the point I was making: It is extremely difficult to project China’s energy production and consumption trajectory.

  28. The normally straight-faced CNN host Jake Tapper couldn’t hold back his skepticism after airing a newly unearthed video of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suggesting the U.S. government secretly orchestrated the COVID-19 pandemic. The video, revealed by The Bulwark on Tuesday, shows Kennedy — President-elect Donald Trump’s choice to head the Department of Health and Human Services — talking about the pandemic, and that “a lot of it feels very planned to me.”
    “Many people argue that this pandemic was a ‘plandemic,’ that it was planned from the outset. It’s part of a sinister scheme. I can’t tell you the answer to that. I don’t have enough evidence. A lot of it feels very planned to me,” Kennedy told the press while he was opening a new chapter of his group, the Children’s Health Defense, which has promoted vaccine conspiracies in online ads, according to The Washington Post. “I don’t know. I will tell you this: If you create these mechanisms for control, they become weapons of obedience for authoritarian regimes no matter how beneficial or innocent the people who created them,” he said.

  29. The Albanese Government will modernise the nation’s sovereign wealth fund, building on its success to ensure it can play an enduring and prominent role in our economy.
    We are refreshing and renewing this core economic institution to make it stronger, more successful and more sustainable into the future.
    Today the Government is:

    Elevating its status as an enduring national asset and making the Fund an ongoing feature of Australia’s economy.
    Issuing a new Investment Mandate to Maximise the Fund’s role in a changing economy.
    Releasing the first Statement of Expectations for the Future Fund in 15 years.

    The independent Future Fund already plays a crucial role in our economy and the Government wants to make sure it can play an important role in the decades ahead.
    The Australian economy faces major structural shifts including from the global net zero transformation, technological and demographic change, and global fragmentation.
    The Future Fund has made clear it can play a prominent role in capitalising on these economic opportunities and supporting Australia’s prosperity.
    The Fund’s primary focus will remain on maximising its returns, and at the same time, our changes will help it maximise its role in delivering for Australians in the future.
    The new Investment Mandate will require the fund to consider Australia’s national priorities in its investment decisions, where possible, appropriate and consistent with strong returns. These national priorities are:

    Increasing the supply of residential housing in Australia.
    Supporting the energy transition as part of the net zero transformation of the Australian economy.
    Delivering improved infrastructure located in Australia including economic resilience and security infrastructure.

    This will mean more investment where we need it most but not at the expense of returns.
    https://ministers.treasury.gov.au/ministers/jim-chalmers-2022/media-releases/future-future-fund


  30. BK says:
    Thursday, November 21, 2024 at 10:24 am
    The most recent Economic Complexity Index rankings continue a downward slide for Australia, which has fallen from 93rd to 102nd.

    The figures, compiled by the Growth Lab at the Harvard Kennedy School, were updated in September, though have not been noted in news coverage since.

    According to Australia’s profile in the Atlas of Economic Complexity – which illustrates the ECI performance of 145 countries – the lower result is down to “a lack of diversification of exports”. While these have grown in value by an average of nearly 10 per cent a year for the last five, there is a “troubling⁩ pattern of export growth”.

    Exports-at-scale have almost invariably been demand-driven in this country – offshore-driven and most often financed by the importing economy. Australians are not notably outward-looking. The biggest export operations – iron ore and coal – were importer-driven from the outset, for example. The gas sector exists mostly because foreigner corporations set it up.

    Australia is essentially no longer a manufacturer. This says a lot more about the structure of the ownership of production, location and access to markets for manufactures than it says about Australia. Try to export manufactures to China or the EU. Try to export manufactured food products to those economies or the US. Australia has also signed on to any number of ‘free trade agreements’ that do not liberalise trade but restrict it.

    We have a post-manufacturing economy in which the government role is really very small. Unlike, say, Singapore or China, major sectors are not in state ownership. In the US, rather than the State owning sectors of the economy, we can say the State is in proxy-ownership by those who also own the economy.

    The note by Harvard is interesting. But we should not beat ourselves up. We focus on the things that our customers want. We do it for them. They own the key export sectors. They finance them. They mobilise everything, including the local workforce.

    We do not own the key new technologies. We do not own the financial markets. We do not control access to markets. We are a dependency….a neo-colonial sub-economy.

  31. Rainman says:
    Thursday, November 21, 2024 at 10:55 am
    Listening to Jim Chalmers being interviewed now, with a great put down of Dutton and the Liberals.

    I have some sympathy for Albanese. I think he’s probably a decent bloke but he hasn’t been a great PM.

    Chalmers would be a much better Labor leader.

    ————————-

    Chalmers belongs to the Labor right faction. So he supports most Liberal Party policies of giving taxpayer money to the US, business and wealthier Australians.
    Same as the Albanese government.
    The philosophy of Labor being a social Democratic Party is binned.

    We can see how BW, C@t and others continually criticise the Greens. Following the lead of PM Albanese.

    And note how successful the US Democrats were in the recent Presidential election. They too were loud in criticising Bernie Sanders social democrat, populist ideas.

    Kamala Harris spent US$1.5bn failing to persuade the electorate. Her counterpart Starmer could only persuade 20% of the electorate.

    Both demonised the left leaving the field free for the right to exploit. The same is happening in Europe. The establishment will ruthlessly block any attempt by Bernie Sanders and Jeremy Corbyn to present a left wing alternative.

    The Albanese Labor government and their supporters here should be noting this. Chalmers will be ignoring the lesson from the Trump victory by being a true supporter of neo liberalism. And the establishment.

  32. Hey Zali Steggall

    I have 3 kids aged 16 down to 11 and between social media and gambling ads, I know what it doing them the most damage (or any damage at all).

    and it isn’t gambling ads…

    So stop impugning motives of the Government for acting on something that a LOT of people want addressed.

  33. The infrastructure minister, Catherine King, has alleged in a speech to parliament that Liberal backbencher Tony Pasin filmed a conversation between them on a GoPro, and has asked for the issue to be referred to the parliament’s powerful privileges committee.
    ———————————————————
    Why was Federal Liberal party mp Tony Pasin filming a private conversation , what has Peter Dutton said about this

  34. Andrew_Earlwoodsays:

    You call this political cowardice. … I wonder whether you have ever even tried … let alone succeeded … in bringing a diverse group of people together and finding common ground? That is the hard thing. In my experience to do that often requires compromise. Including the discipline of not demanding everything – or even most things – in order to obtain a tangible outcome. That is the hard thing to do. Really hard.

    You want to talk about ‘political cowardice’. The epitome of political cowardice is to sit behind a fake name in the comfort of Melbourne suburbia and dam the one and only team that is actually in the Arena fighting the good fight each and every day trying to actually land outcomes by the hard road. We can actually see this third faction of the anti-Labor party at ‘work’ (if you can call it work) each and every day on Bludger:
    ________________________
    Well I guess I should never be critical of the Labor party ever again because that makes me a coward and an enemy of the people fighting the good fight every day who are never cowards, opportunists, careerists and political gangsters.

    Of course you can be critical of Labor. You can dislike Minns for example. You can be critical Marles, call him all sorts of names, and disparage Labor policy like AUKUS.

    You just have to have the anonymous moniker of Andrew Earlwood. Then you can sit behind a fake name in suburbia and be as critical as you like.

  35. And right on cue, ‘Well Done’ Angus Taylor has promised to overturn the Future Fund changes if the Coalition enters office.

    Does he not realise that he just gifted Labor a campaign line?

  36. ‘Irene says:
    Thursday, November 21, 2024 at 11:32 am

    Rainman says:
    Thursday, November 21, 2024 at 10:55 am
    Listening to Jim Chalmers being interviewed now, with a great put down of Dutton and the Liberals.

    I have some sympathy for Albanese. I think he’s probably a decent bloke but he hasn’t been a great PM.

    Chalmers would be a much better Labor leader.

    ————————-

    Chalmers belongs to the Labor right faction. So he supports most Liberal Party policies of giving taxpayer money to the US, business and wealthier Australians.
    Same as the Albanese government.
    The philosophy of Labor being a social Democratic Party is binned.

    We can see how BW, C@t and others continually criticise the Greens. Following the lead of PM Albanese.

    And note how successful the US Democrats were in the recent Presidential election. They too were loud in criticising Bernie Sanders social democrat, populist ideas.

    Kamala Harris spent US$1.5bn failing to persuade the electorate. Her counterpart Starmer could only persuade 20% of the electorate.

    Both demonised the left leaving the field free for the right to exploit. The same is happening in Europe. The establishment will ruthlessly block any attempt by Bernie Sanders and Jeremy Corbyn to present a left wing alternative.

    The Albanese Labor government and their supporters here should be noting this. Chalmers will be ignoring the lesson from the Trump victory by being a true supporter of neo liberalism. And the establishment.’
    ====================
    Xi is extremely popular with China’s poor.
    Other than that the Extreme Left in Australia is supported by 12-13% of the electorate.
    Any political party that wants to disarm Australia is lucky to get 12-13%.

  37. I’ll say it again because the usuals are pretending this is all about something else.

    Most of Australia’s parents are very concerned about managing their kids’ screen time.

  38. No ideas and no money for housing and the energy transition, lets raid the future fund. So typical. I am worried I have put to much effort and money into my Super if they stay in it is only a matter of time before they raid it. Time to put the extra into a share portfolio instead of Super, at least that way it is mine.

  39. Irene says:
    Thursday, November 21, 2024 ….

    Chalmers belongs to the Labor right faction. So he supports most Liberal Party policies of giving taxpayer money to the US, business and wealthier Australians.
    Same as the Albanese government.
    The philosophy of Labor being a social Democratic Party is binned.

    You’ve obviously never been involved in Labor. There are very few differences between the factions on matters of substance. There are some totemic matters. But mostly the differences are token.

    You’re wrong about Labor and Social Democracy. Labor plays defence on the keystones….on health, education, income support for families, on progressive taxation, on the safety net, on sheltering the savings of workers, on protecting the social estate. These are the very opposite of the laissez-faire instincts of the Reactionaries, with whom you collaborate on a daily basis.

    The global economy and contemporary social culture are very remarkably different now than compared to, say, 1980. The collapse of the Soviet Union, the reunification of Germany, the rise of China, the digital revolution, the explosion of social media have taken place or are continuing to evolve. Labor – like everyone – has had to adapt to this. It has. In this respect, it has done much better than the Greens, who have a worldview that is rooted in the New Left angry-radicalism of the 1970s.

    The Greens would do well to visit Lenin’s tomb. There they will see an embalmed despot. The Green theories of the economy and of history are preserved inside Lenin’s corpse. They might pause and think about the relevance of their very primitive slogans and their even punier accomplishments.

  40. Irene, I don’t disagree with you. Chalmers may be from the right but any claim Albanese had of being from the left is now laughable. As I’ve said before, I’m pretty disappointed with Labor, and now I’m pretty much going to vote for them again for the sole purpose of keeping Dutton and the Liberals out of government. If that’s all that Labor now is, the enemy of my enemy, then I’m just saying that I think Chalmers is more up for the job of fighting Liberals.

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