Polls: Essential, RedBridge, Morgan, EMRS Tasmanian (open thread)

Three pollsters chime in with federal voting intention numbers, while a fourth finds state Labor gaining ground in Tasmania.

As Newspoll off-weeks go, a big week for polling, with three further federal voting intention results following upon Freshwater Strategy:

• The fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor down a point to 30%, the Coalition up one to 35%, the Greens up one to 13% and One Nation down two to 7%, with undecided steady at 5%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor moving into a 48-47 lead, after trailing 49-47 last time. Also featured are the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Anthony Albanese down a point on approval to 43% and steady on 48% disapproval, while Peter Dutton is down three to 42% and up two to 41%. A regular “national mood” question reports an improved result off a low base, with a five-point increase in the sentiment that the country is heading in the right direction to 35%, and a four-point decrease for wrong track to 48%. A forced response question on the cause of hotter temperatures records only a 52-48 break in favour of climate change over normal fluctuations, although only 19% rate that Australia is doing too much to address the problem, compared with 33% for not enough and 37% for about right. The poll also finds only mildly negative views on the Trump administration’s likely impact on the global economy and global conflicts, and records 28% favouring Labor’s proposed 20% HECS debt cut over 36% for no change and 36% for abolishing student debt altogether. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1206.

• RedBridge Group has a federal poll recording a tie on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 34%, Coalition 39% and Greens 11%. Further findings from the poll include 54% approval of how Australian federal and state governments handled the COVID pandemic, with 42% disapproval; 53% awareness that the federal government rejected Qatar Airways’ application to increase flights to Australia, with 39% unaware; and 61% perceiving the government gave Qantas preferential treatment in the matter, with 11% disagreeing. The poll was conducted November 6 to 13 from a sample of 2011.

• Both the RedBridge Group poll and last week’s Resolve Strategic poll had questions on perceptions of the Greens. Resolve Strategic found the party was viewed positively by 24%, negatively by 44% and neutrally by 29%, while Adam Bandt was viewed positively by 10%, neutrally by 26% and negatively by 26%, with 38% unfamiliar. With six propositions to choose from, 38% of RedBridge’s respondents favoured clearly negative propositions against 29% for clearly positive, while 14% opted a broadly neutral “party of protest and disruption”.

• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 50.5-49.5 to 51-49, from primary votes of Labor 29% (down one-and-a-half), Coalition 39% (up one-and-a-half), Greens 13.5% (up one) and One Nation 6.5% (steady). The two-party measure based on preference flows at the 2022 election is at 50-50, after Labor led 51-49 last week. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1675. Roy Morgan also has a forced response SMS poll, conducted during the royal visit on October 22 and 23 from a sample of 1312, recording a 61-39 split in favour of keeping the existing Australian flag.

• Also out this week was the regular quarterly Tasmanian state poll from EMRS, showing the Liberals’ lead at its narrowest in many a long year, with Labor up four to 31%, Liberal down one to 35%, the Greens steady on 14% and the Jacqui Lambie Network down two to 6%. Jeremy Rockliff’s lead over Dean Winter as preferred premier narrows from 45-30 to 43-37. Also featured are new questions inviting respondents to rate the leaders on a scale from zero to ten, recording 37% favourable, 36% neutral and 22% unfavourable for Rockliff, and 25% favourable, 38% neutral and 11% unfavourable for Winter. The poll was conducted November 5 to 14 from a sample of 1000.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,093 comments on “Polls: Essential, RedBridge, Morgan, EMRS Tasmanian (open thread)”

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  1. Amazing, isn’t it, how the hyper concerned souls on the Left have been thoroughly gulled into thinking that what we need are ‘strong leaders’, not calm, consultative types?

    ———

    You can be an effective and therefore a strong leader by being calm and consultative. Gillard was a fairly effective administrator if somewhat unpopular and a bit stilted. Albo is not effective in any area though.

  2. C@tmommasays:
    Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 9:20 pm
    dave @ #1019 Saturday, November 23rd, 2024 – 7:59 pm

    It must be galling for the dems that minority groups they thought they had sown up walked away from them.

    You can’t seal up socially conservative groups into a progressive movement and expect them to stay there indefinitely.

    But apparently you can lie to them and bastardise the hell out of them, even deport them and they will still stay in the conservative bubble.
    __________________________
    The Dems might need those toxic white males back.

  3. @Boerwar

    If you were forced to leave Australia would you rather go to Singapore or some Latin American democracy/kleptocracy with war zone level homicide rates.

    Singapore is a success story, an affluent safe multi racial society with relatively low levels of corruption.It has a low birth rate but no lower than Thailand which is also corrupt and poor.

  4. Player One,

    Well, you can’t be that critical because Albo has done something.

    Albo has promised everyone a $300 power price rebate as a desperate measure to try and hide his failure of lowering energy prices by $275 a year.

  5. A friend of mine lived in Singapore for 6 years. She called it Stinkybore. I thought this was a bit harsh. But the oppressive humidity and stultifying compliance with rules got to her.

  6. Singapore went from third world to first world living standards within a generation. Sure it’s a glorified city council country in a good location but it couldn’t be done without good administration, it stands well ahead of the sister country of Malaysia it was kicked out of and is outperforming Australia now.

  7. mj @ #1052 Saturday, November 23rd, 2024 – 9:34 pm

    Amazing, isn’t it, how the hyper concerned souls on the Left have been thoroughly gulled into thinking that what we need are ‘strong leaders’, not calm, consultative types?

    ———

    You can be an effective and therefore a strong leader by being calm and consultative. Gillard was a fairly effective administrator if somewhat unpopular and a bit stilted. Albo is not effective in any area though.

    Absolute bullshit. I’m sorry, I’ve held my tongue until now with you, but after your support for John Howard’s best mate, Lee Kuan Yew, you and your mealy-mouthed insults of an actually very successful Prime Minister have compelled me to call your crapulent hot takes out.

    I’m not going to go into all the things which Boerwar has tirelessly listed which are 1st Term successes of this government, but what I am going to do is point out to people like you who seem to have fairy floss for brains and who spin it out relentlessly here in the hope someone will believe you, just one singular but very, very important category of achievement by our federal Labor government, our Prime Minister and our Foreign Minister, and that is the number of Australians that they have succeeded in getting released from incarceration overseas:

    * Cheng Lai
    * Julian Assange
    * Sean Turnell
    * The Bali 5

    The Coalition couldn’t do it over their 10 years in government.
    The Greens haven’t gotten anywhere near government to be able to do it.
    And Independents would never be taken seriously on the world stage to be able to do it.

    But pipsqueaks like you, mj, think you’re cock of the freaking walk with your derogatory comments about our Prime Minister and his government on this blog. When the truth is you’re just another nobody with an overinflated opinion of their opinion who will never achieve one billionth of what this government has in just under 3 years. In fact, your only achievement, if you could call it that, is to be the social media equivalent of acid dropping on a rock which wears away at the government who are just trying to do the right thing by the people of this nation as much as is humanly possible within the confines of an Unserious Senate and a global propaganda network run by a claque of media oligarchs. Who obviously have succeeded in getting to you and rotting your brain. Even if you won’t admit it. As you believe all your opinions are your own, when they are just a carbon copy of theirs.

  8. Centre @ #1056 Saturday, November 23rd, 2024 – 10:16 pm

    Player One,

    Well, you can’t be that critical because Albo has done something.

    Albo has promised everyone a $300 power price rebate as a desperate measure to try and hide his failure of lowering energy prices by $275 a year.

    And yes, you’re another one who just throws out garbage like this and hopes it’ll stick.

    Go on, provide some factual proof that energy prices haven’t been lowered by $275/year. I know I’m not paying as much as I used to and I haven’t altered my lifestyle at all. Anyway I bet the only ‘proof’ you would believe is if you saw it in The Australian.

  9. mj says:
    Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 8:06 pm

    but it’s not an endorsment for guided democracy, benevolent dictatorship or whatever you want to call it.

    Griff says:
    Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 8:30 pm

    you are somewhat more cavalier with the concept of guided democracy than others.

    *******************************

    There is nothing wrong with Guided Democracy per se. And probably Singapore is a bad example because once Lee Kuan Yu started throwing communists into Changi prison never to be seen again, you’ve no kind of democracy. I remember seeing on tv the police in the streets cutting young women’s pants into skirts and shaving the heads of young men with long hair. And I took it personally when he called us the white trash of Asia.

    It’s all very well to have democracy in a homogenous society, but when you just have majorities actually murdering minorities (think Rwanda) or just simply using their majority to stay in power forever and keep their boot on the faces of the minority (think Northern Ireland), then democracy is a disaster.

    A better example of Guided democracy was Indonesia under Sukarno. He couldn’t just let people of different religious/ethnic groups just murder each other. He was also caught in the middle between the military (which had a lot of political power after gaining independence by kicking out the Dutch colonialists) and the ‘communists’ peasants (who wanted land reform to break free of their feudal oppression).

    Anyway, after the U.S. freaked out thinking Vietnam was the start of a bullshit domino theory (when it was actually French colonialists being kicked out by independence fighters who happened to be communists) and thinking Indonesia would be next, after seeing happy selfies of Sukarno with Mao, arranged for Sukarno to be replaced by Suharto, then we saw no saw no democracy at all. What we did see was the murder of half a million people.

    People in western countries shouldn’t act judgey and smug just because democracy works for them.

  10. C@tmomma @ #1059 Saturday, November 23rd, 2024 – 10:29 pm

    mj @ #1052 Saturday, November 23rd, 2024 – 9:34 pm

    Amazing, isn’t it, how the hyper concerned souls on the Left have been thoroughly gulled into thinking that what we need are ‘strong leaders’, not calm, consultative types?

    ———

    You can be an effective and therefore a strong leader by being calm and consultative. Gillard was a fairly effective administrator if somewhat unpopular and a bit stilted. Albo is not effective in any area though.

    Absolute bullshit. I’m sorry, I’ve held my tongue until now with you, but after your support for John Howard’s best mate, Lee Kuan Yew, you and your mealy-mouthed insults of an actually very successful Prime Minister have compelled me to call your crapulent hot takes out.

    I’m not going to go into all the things which Boerwar has tirelessly listed which are 1st Term successes of this government, but what I am going to do is point out to people like you who seem to have fairy floss for brains and who spin it out relentlessly here in the hope someone will believe you, just one singular but very, very important category of achievement by our federal Labor government, our Prime Minister and our Foreign Minister, and that is the number of Australians that they have succeeded in getting released from incarceration overseas:

    * Cheng Lai
    * Julian Assange
    * Sean Turnell
    * The Bali 5

    The Coalition couldn’t do it over their 10 years in government.
    The Greens haven’t gotten anywhere near government to be able to do it.
    And Independents would never be taken seriously on the world stage to be able to do it.

    But pipsqueaks like you, mj, think you’re cock of the freaking walk with your derogatory comments about our Prime Minister and his government on this blog. When the truth is you’re just another nobody with an overinflated opinion of their opinion who will never achieve one billionth of what this government has in just under 3 years. In fact, your only achievement, if you could call it that, is to be the social media equivalent of acid dropping on a rock which wears away at the government who are just trying to do the right thing by the people of this nation as much as is humanly possible within the confines of an Unserious Senate and a global propaganda network run by a claque of media oligarchs. Who obviously have succeeded in getting to you and rotting your brain. Even if you won’t admit it. As you believe all your opinions are your own, when they are just a carbon copy of theirs.

    I really wish that Labor Central Command or whatever they’re called can make statements as strong as this. That’s good talk, might even be inspirational, but somehow they just don’t.

  11. Ethical question for my anti-Trump people here: If, in the next term, Trump has more “Covfefe” moments, is it right to laugh at and make memes of those moments, or is doing so just going to soften him and make him seem more goofy and harmless.

    On US election day a few weeks back, I was watching a stream of some comedic podcasters covering it, and they spent a good deal of time on all the dumb moments from the first Trump term and, while they were all anti-Trump and didn’t intend it to be so, you could almost feel a fond nostalgia for those moments, which concerned me. At the beginning of this post, I chose “Covfefe” as an example of this because it encapsulates the Trump administration back in 2017: clueless, chaotic and seemingly unable to function properly. However, they did some really harmful shit that year which gets swept under the goofiness sometimes.

    Anyway, what do you all think?

  12. C@tmomma

    Stop going off like a catherine wheel.

    Get this into your brain, people do not like to be told their energy prices are going to be lower and they find they are higher when they receive their bill. You can fool people some of the time, but not when it comes to their money and spending habits – and they vote.

    Have a look at the polls, is that good enough for your beloved Labor Party, for a first-term government?

    You don’t know what I read, why don’t you try reading statements from the RBA, you might learn something!

  13. Not aimed at you Rainman & Wat, you’re both good contributors coming in late.

    The other debate has been going on for too long.

    C@t why do you bother?

    You’re wasting your time.

  14. C@t
    I admire your resolve.
    However when tyring to engage with some here you are wasting your time….not because of what you say, but who you are directing your comments to.
    By and large, the very thing they attempt to demean you for – your loyalty and support of practical politics – is something these negative souls show little interest in.
    Use the scroll button more often and most of those who remain will be like a mob of drunks under a lamp – who shout abrasively and often – as they have little else to contribute other than lean on one another to stop them falling flat on their respective faces.
    Pity really as some good stuff goes on here at other times.

  15. @Political Nightwatchman:
    “I agree with this. I’ve noticed Player One and MJ have been using these phrases but very little detail or substance in their comments”Albo’s a shit leader”, ‘Labor’s shit’. Lots of empty phrases very little substance. It does lower the standard of debate and its not fraction of the debate on the Queensland and US threads. And no I didn’t agree everything said in those threads but debate was alot more then empty phrases. ”

    It’s made the place increasingly unreadable over the past few months. Few debates on the facts, just the pushing of low rent slogans and narratives. While this is an accurate reflection of most current political debate in Australia, I can get that literally anywhere else. There’s always been a few of that sort of “contributor” here, but it really ramped up through the second half of this year even after the banning of one of the worst offenders. It’s why I’m increasingly not around myself. Talking at a bunch of brick walls who don’t discuss anything in good faith, just parrot their slogans (and then slip up and praise Xi or Putin or other authoritarian of choice. Lee today, is it?) is not my idea of a fun time.

  16. My take, for what it’s worth, is that people are generally good, and they argue among themselves endlessly, and that’s a good thing because the truth is never simple and so we need to debate and consider, and …

    I think you know where I’m going. Or, at least, I hope you do.

  17. Centre I bet on Kembla, Cranbourne & Ascot today.

    Won handsomely as they say.

    You may sneer but it worked for me!

    I tried to keep my selections quiet to save my price but I could never do as good a job as you hiding your right wing affiliation.

  18. So right Arky!

    Tricot you talk sense as well!

    Ante another good one.

    Missed you earlier Kirsdarke.

    Sorry, four replies in the one post, getting lazy.

    Getting close to bedtime.

    Wherever you all are, have a good night and take care!

    Cheers all!

  19. mjsays:
    Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 11:37 pm
    [Continue with your “practical politics”and see how it goes for you peeps.]

    It’s not going great for you as you reverted to dismissing others by calling them “peeps”.
    The users of “peeps” are the biggest squealers .
    Don’t trip over your anonymous ego.

  20. West Australian has a scoop for tomorrow.

    The WA state gov wait for this bribe to end all election bribes has announced free public transport from December 14 to Feb 5.

    Beats Qld 5 dollar public transport!

  21. I’m happy with free PT in Perth for 2 months but why not just make it permanent or a nominal fare? PT takes the pressure off other road users and should be next to free

  22. Boerwar @ 8.15pm
    Agreed.
    India can bat all day on the third day, amass a mammoth total, declare and knock off the worst batting combination Australia has fielded for many years.
    I think that they have already compiled, more than a winning total against this out of form Australian 11.
    They will bat on only to refresh their bowlers.
    The Indian bowlers will be fresh, after 1.5 days in the air-conditioned rooms, and knock over the Autralian batters by tea, at the latest, on the fourth day.
    Whoever, at the ACB, thought that the ideal preparation for the season was three weeks of inconsequential 50 Over and T20 cricket matches against Pakistan should resign or be sacked.

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