Polls: Essential, RedBridge, Morgan, EMRS Tasmanian (open thread)

Three pollsters chime in with federal voting intention numbers, while a fourth finds state Labor gaining ground in Tasmania.

As Newspoll off-weeks go, a big week for polling, with three further federal voting intention results following upon Freshwater Strategy:

• The fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor down a point to 30%, the Coalition up one to 35%, the Greens up one to 13% and One Nation down two to 7%, with undecided steady at 5%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor moving into a 48-47 lead, after trailing 49-47 last time. Also featured are the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Anthony Albanese down a point on approval to 43% and steady on 48% disapproval, while Peter Dutton is down three to 42% and up two to 41%. A regular “national mood” question reports an improved result off a low base, with a five-point increase in the sentiment that the country is heading in the right direction to 35%, and a four-point decrease for wrong track to 48%. A forced response question on the cause of hotter temperatures records only a 52-48 break in favour of climate change over normal fluctuations, although only 19% rate that Australia is doing too much to address the problem, compared with 33% for not enough and 37% for about right. The poll also finds only mildly negative views on the Trump administration’s likely impact on the global economy and global conflicts, and records 28% favouring Labor’s proposed 20% HECS debt cut over 36% for no change and 36% for abolishing student debt altogether. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1206.

• RedBridge Group has a federal poll recording a tie on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 34%, Coalition 39% and Greens 11%. Further findings from the poll include 54% approval of how Australian federal and state governments handled the COVID pandemic, with 42% disapproval; 53% awareness that the federal government rejected Qatar Airways’ application to increase flights to Australia, with 39% unaware; and 61% perceiving the government gave Qantas preferential treatment in the matter, with 11% disagreeing. The poll was conducted November 6 to 13 from a sample of 2011.

• Both the RedBridge Group poll and last week’s Resolve Strategic poll had questions on perceptions of the Greens. Resolve Strategic found the party was viewed positively by 24%, negatively by 44% and neutrally by 29%, while Adam Bandt was viewed positively by 10%, neutrally by 26% and negatively by 26%, with 38% unfamiliar. With six propositions to choose from, 38% of RedBridge’s respondents favoured clearly negative propositions against 29% for clearly positive, while 14% opted a broadly neutral “party of protest and disruption”.

• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 50.5-49.5 to 51-49, from primary votes of Labor 29% (down one-and-a-half), Coalition 39% (up one-and-a-half), Greens 13.5% (up one) and One Nation 6.5% (steady). The two-party measure based on preference flows at the 2022 election is at 50-50, after Labor led 51-49 last week. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1675. Roy Morgan also has a forced response SMS poll, conducted during the royal visit on October 22 and 23 from a sample of 1312, recording a 61-39 split in favour of keeping the existing Australian flag.

• Also out this week was the regular quarterly Tasmanian state poll from EMRS, showing the Liberals’ lead at its narrowest in many a long year, with Labor up four to 31%, Liberal down one to 35%, the Greens steady on 14% and the Jacqui Lambie Network down two to 6%. Jeremy Rockliff’s lead over Dean Winter as preferred premier narrows from 45-30 to 43-37. Also featured are new questions inviting respondents to rate the leaders on a scale from zero to ten, recording 37% favourable, 36% neutral and 22% unfavourable for Rockliff, and 25% favourable, 38% neutral and 11% unfavourable for Winter. The poll was conducted November 5 to 14 from a sample of 1000.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,093 comments on “Polls: Essential, RedBridge, Morgan, EMRS Tasmanian (open thread)”

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  1. Yes I agree too – Labor should put Boer’s listicles on high rotation.

    Surely with effort and planning they can get the primary down to 25%.

  4. Singapore has a birth rate that would have halved its population within a generation or so… but it is an attractive destination for refugees fleeing the tender mercies of Xi and the Comrades.

    I am not sure whether those arriving are potential child bearers so I am unsure as to the actual structure of Singapore’s population.

    Some of Lee Kuan Yew’s less well-known achievements:

    1. the establishment of an authoritarian one party state
    2. the establishment of his family at the heart of that one party
    3. a mass extinction event larger than that of Australia
    4. total dependence on fossil fuels
    5. total dependence on imported food
    6. 40% dependence on imported water.
    7. high per capita CO2 emissions

    In other words his legacy is an over-populated island which is unsustainable against most normal criteria.

  5. My under standing of the horseshoe theory is that it alleges that the far right and far left are similar? I think that’s the gist.

    Of course that leaves centrists like the Labor and Liberal parties nice and cosy in the middle.

  6. Did I mention that Dutton voted against 300,000 fee free TAFE courses?
    The nice thing about the delivery of those TAFE courses?
    Outer suburbs. Regional cities. Large regional towns.
    Direct employment in TAFE…
    Will the turkeys swallow Dutton’s COL gabble, gabble, gabble?

  7. mj says:
    Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 7:38 pm
    Confessions says:
    Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 7:31 pm
    Shogun @ #990 Saturday, November 23rd, 2024 – 7:13 pm

    All hail that hero of democracy and workers’ rights Lee Kuan Yew.
    I’m fascinated in a kind of scared way that the far right and the far left are simultaneously embracing authoritarian tendencies.

    ———

    Posting a video of LKY doesn’t mean I endorse authoritarian govt, he simply has some wise things to say that are worth considering even if you don’t agree with plenty of things he did.

    And please stop insinuating that I’m far left it’s the Labor party that has drifted off the reservation and abandoned social democrats.

    _________

    I believe you, 85% of Australians wouldn’t 🙂

  8. dave says:
    Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 7:46 pm
    My under standing of the horseshoe theory is that it alleges that the far right and far left are similar? I think that’s the gist.

    Of course that leaves centrists like the Labor and Liberal parties nice and cosy in the middle.

    _______

    It does actually. But don’t forget the Teals 😉

  12. mj 7.38pm

    [And please stop insinuating that I’m far left it’s the Labor party that has drifted off the reservation and abandoned social democrats.]

    No one has said that.
    What is it that you want Albanese and Labor to do?

  13. Voting for Dutton is like turkeys voting for christmas.
    He will suppress you wages.
    He will get rid of bulk billing.
    He will impose abortion restrictions.
    He will make you pay more for medicine.
    He will make you pay for your TAFE course.
    He will make you pay ALL your HECs debt.
    He will allow more o/s students in to Australia.
    He will cut cheap housing supply.

  16. mj:

    In the midst of comments about how Albanese can improve, you posted a video of supposed words of wisdom from the father of guided democracy with a tag line of the end of weak corrupt governments. Your meaning was pretty clear.

    FWIW I do not want guided democracy for Australia. We had a version of that under the Coalition with ridiculous anti democratic ‘on water matters’, the corruption of giving away taxpayer largesse to political mates under radar, and mates for jobs abounding for even the least qualified, but partisan aligned. Sophie Mirabella anyone?

    If that is your vision for Australia then that’s up to you. But I and many other Australians do not want that. As for turning Australian into Singapore? Jesus.

  17. Some of Lee Kuan Yew’s less well-known achievements:

    1. the establishment of an authoritarian one party state
    2. the establishment of his family at the heart of that one party
    3. a mass extinction event larger than that of Australia
    4. total dependence on fossil fuels
    5. total dependence on imported food
    6. 40% dependence on imported water.
    7. high per capita CO2 emissions

    In other words his legacy is an over-populated island which is unsustainable against most normal criteria.

    What a record! If only Albo reduced Australia to that, he might stand a chance of leading Labor to victory next year.

    Labor needs to stay well away from these far left cranks and shonks.

  19. It must be galling for the dems that minority groups they thought they had sown up walked away from them.

    You can’t seal up socially conservative groups into a progressive movement and expect them to stay there indefinitely.

  22. mj says:
    Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 7:54 pm
    I believe you, 85% of Australians wouldn’t

    ———

    We’re often reminded that you know everything Griff.

    _____

    Well I don’t think I do. At least I think I don’t think I do. I did have a realist ontological stance at one point. But even that isn’t truly positivist. These days I find myself leaning towards bounded relativism. Each to their own (tribe)!

  23. Confessions I get why you have seen it that way, but it’s not an endorsment for guided democracy, benevolent dictatorship or whatever you want to call it. You don’t have to be a fan of LKY’s style to recognise he had some perceptive things to say. I’m sure you’d like to imagine me as an extremist or dictator lover so you can dismiss my POV.

    But yes I was making a point that we have a problem with weak and corrupted govt, that’s pretty evident atm and as people turn away from the major parties in response they are trying to lock in their advantage with this electoral reform bill and to try and disadvantage any upstart challengers. Not very democratic is it?

  24. Look, I don’t know how Democrats win back lost Arab/Muslim Americans, if one can win them back and if the cost of doing so isn’t too high. That’s a longer discussion that’s probably for smarter people than me.

    However, I think that sneering at them and telling them that they deserve everything that’s coming their way because of how they voted doesn’t help.

  25. dave says:
    Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 7:59 pm
    It must be galling for the dems that minority groups they thought they had sown up walked away from them.

    You can’t seal up socially conservative groups into a progressive movement and expect them to stay there indefinitely.

    _______

    Good post. Careful you don’t become infected by the horseshoe theory virus too!

  27. Trump did have a bit of an idea to export all American muslims at one stage.

    This would definitely resolve their turkey status for them.

    And it would mean that they would be around to reject the Dems for whatever the next time around, either.

    Gobble.gobble.gobble.

    BTWo, how is Dutton going with his secret project to ban migrants from Lebanon and Palestine because they must all be terrorists?

    Any turkey takers?

  28. mj 8.06pm
    [But yes I was making a point that we have a problem with weak and corrupted govt]

    What’s this corrupted government you’re on about.
    Most accept that the Morrison government after nine years of LNP had lost their moral compass.

    So your same same assertion may not be universally accepted as a truism.

  31. goll says:
    Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 8:14 pm
    mj 8.06pm
    [But yes I was making a point that we have a problem with weak and corrupted govt]

    What’s this corrupted government you’re on about.
    Most accept that the Morrison government after nine years of LNP had lost their moral compass.

    So your same same assertion may not be universally accepted as a truism

    ———

    Look where the money is coming from. We can argue who’s better or worse on corruption but it has infected the entire parliament.

  32. Morrison/Dutton only tripled the fed debt to a trillion.

    Piss weak. Of course there was nothing to show for it except richer crony capitalists, a run down health system, a run down housing stock, trashed real wages, a run down NDIS, run down skills, an aged care shambles, a $20 billion a year trade war with China over SFA, a robodebt shambles, and so on and so forth ad nauseam.

    The best guess putting together Trump’s economic plans is that he will ADD $22 trillion to the US debt by 2035.

    Bessent will have his hands full.

  33. Griff says:
    Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 8:15 pm
    I haven’t heard of guided democracy being referred to as a ‘style’ before

    ———

    And what’s your point?

  35. mj says:
    Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 8:23 pm
    Griff says:
    Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 8:15 pm
    I haven’t heard of guided democracy being referred to as a ‘style’ before

    ———

    And what’s your point?

    _____

    That you are somewhat more cavalier with the concept of guided democracy than others. Further, when considered together with another of your posts that our entire parliament is infected with corruption, I am now understating that you are further from the Overton window than you may realise.

  36. But yes I was making a point that we have a problem with weak and corrupted govt,

    We do not.

    I don’t know what reality you’re attuned to, but it isn’t anything resembling actual reality. The fundamentals of our parliamentary system of government are strong. Our electoral system is strong. We tossed out a corrupt government in 2022, and there’s no evidence the current government is corrupt.

    Although I’m starting to understand why you’re drawn to authoritarian regimes. When you perceive that we have a corrupt and weak government in the absence of any evidence to support this, I suppose it could be tempting to follow the far right down their rabbit holes in pining for oppression.

    #horseshoe

  37. BW the rich can still buy influence, they are only limited to $20,000 per party entity per year so for the majors that’s 9 state/territory/federal branches so in effect $180,000 per year plus they can donate to further associated third party entities. Independents which obviously do not have these structures are clearly disadvantaged.

    Confessions you can keep misrepresenting what I’m trying to say, I can’t be bothered arguing with you.

  38. mj
    I’m not talking about buying influence. I am talking about buying votes. I don’t see how you can justify people like Pocock spending over $2 million for a single candidate in a single seat. What IS corrupt is the way Pocock et al are pretending that they are not massive winners out of the current set of arrangements.

  39. That you are somewhat more cavalier with the concept of guided democracy than others. Further, when considered together with another of your posts that our entire parliament is infected with corruption, I am now understating that you are further from the Overton window than you may realise.

    ———

    I’ve already said I don’t support guided democracy. See where a large number of MP’s end up post politics, there is clearly a problem with corruption.

  40. mj is trying to explain why he is 100% supportive of the wonderful work that Albanese did in cleaning up Robodebt, the NDIS, the AAT, the rorting by fake education providers and so on and so forth.

  41. mj says:
    Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 8:40 pm
    That you are somewhat more cavalier with the concept of guided democracy than others. Further, when considered together with another of your posts that our entire parliament is infected with corruption, I am now understating that you are further from the Overton window than you may realise.

    ———

    I’ve already said I don’t support guided democracy. See where a large number of MP’s end up post politics, there is clearly a problem with corruption.

    _______

    What is your solution to this problem that you see, mj?

  43. Boerwarsays:
    Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 7:52 pm
    Voting for Dutton is like turkeys voting for christmas.
    He will suppress you wages.
    He will get rid of bulk billing.
    He will impose abortion restrictions.
    He will make you pay more for medicine.
    He will make you pay for your TAFE course.
    He will make you pay ALL your HECs debt.
    He will allow more o/s students in to Australia.
    He will cut cheap housing supply.

    No. That’s what Tony Abbott would do. I don’t think Peter Dutton would be that stupid. He’d be gone at the following election.

  44. Griff,

    -Abolish corporate donations, and buying access
    -Expand public funding of candidates
    -Limit individual donations
    -Improve whistleblower protections
    -No work in industries you regulated for say 5 years

    Obviously groups like the teals wouldn’t be able to get the kickstart they did under this model but nothing stopping individuals donating many small donations in large numbers to a budding political movement.

  45. Dutton would pretty much only be there to enact Project Gina 2025.

    You know, the one where she said we need to compete with Africa in only paying people $2 per day.

    Shouldn’t be too hard if Duttato wins.

  46. Is this the same Indian side that was flogged by the Kiwis at home recently?

    If yes, I think I saw commentary that the world’s two best sides were playing in Perth. I don’t think that can be correct.

  47. mj says:
    Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 9:01 pm
    Griff,

    -Abolish corporate donations, and buying access
    -Expand public funding of candidates
    -Limit individual donations
    -Improve whistleblower protections
    -No work in industries you regulated for say 5 years

    Obviously groups like the teals wouldn’t be able to get the kickstart they did under this model but nothing stopping individuals donating many small donations in large numbers to a budding political movement.

    ________

    I don’t mind these principles. Don’t forget realtime disclosure as well. The thing is that the proposed legislation is progress on many of these.

  48. I left out real-time disclosure because you wouldn’t really need it if you had no large corporate or individual donations. But certainly if we’re keeping them they should be regularly disclosed, none of this disclosing them a year and a half after they were made. There is some progress in the proposed laws but it’s coupled with a lot of self-serving stuff as well.

  49. Confessions @ #1036 Saturday, November 23rd, 2024 – 8:30 pm

    But yes I was making a point that we have a problem with weak and corrupted govt,

    We do not.

    I don’t know what reality you’re attuned to, but it isn’t anything resembling actual reality. The fundamentals of our parliamentary system of government are strong. Our electoral system is strong. We tossed out a corrupt government in 2022, and there’s no evidence the current government is corrupt.

    Although I’m starting to understand why you’re drawn to authoritarian regimes. When you perceive that we have a corrupt and weak government in the absence of any evidence to support this, I suppose it could be tempting to follow the far right down their rabbit holes in pining for oppression.

    #horseshoe

    = ‘Strong leaders’

    Amazing, isn’t it, how the hyper concerned souls on the Left have been thoroughly gulled into thinking that what we need are ‘strong leaders’, not calm, consultative types? 😐

  50. dave @ #1019 Saturday, November 23rd, 2024 – 7:59 pm

    It must be galling for the dems that minority groups they thought they had sown up walked away from them.

    You can’t seal up socially conservative groups into a progressive movement and expect them to stay there indefinitely.

    But apparently you can lie to them and bastardise the hell out of them, even deport them and they will still stay in the conservative bubble. 😐

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