As Newspoll off-weeks go, a big week for polling, with three further federal voting intention results following upon Freshwater Strategy:
• The fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor down a point to 30%, the Coalition up one to 35%, the Greens up one to 13% and One Nation down two to 7%, with undecided steady at 5%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor moving into a 48-47 lead, after trailing 49-47 last time. Also featured are the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Anthony Albanese down a point on approval to 43% and steady on 48% disapproval, while Peter Dutton is down three to 42% and up two to 41%. A regular “national mood” question reports an improved result off a low base, with a five-point increase in the sentiment that the country is heading in the right direction to 35%, and a four-point decrease for wrong track to 48%. A forced response question on the cause of hotter temperatures records only a 52-48 break in favour of climate change over normal fluctuations, although only 19% rate that Australia is doing too much to address the problem, compared with 33% for not enough and 37% for about right. The poll also finds only mildly negative views on the Trump administration’s likely impact on the global economy and global conflicts, and records 28% favouring Labor’s proposed 20% HECS debt cut over 36% for no change and 36% for abolishing student debt altogether. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1206.
• RedBridge Group has a federal poll recording a tie on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 34%, Coalition 39% and Greens 11%. Further findings from the poll include 54% approval of how Australian federal and state governments handled the COVID pandemic, with 42% disapproval; 53% awareness that the federal government rejected Qatar Airways’ application to increase flights to Australia, with 39% unaware; and 61% perceiving the government gave Qantas preferential treatment in the matter, with 11% disagreeing. The poll was conducted November 6 to 13 from a sample of 2011.
• Both the RedBridge Group poll and last week’s Resolve Strategic poll had questions on perceptions of the Greens. Resolve Strategic found the party was viewed positively by 24%, negatively by 44% and neutrally by 29%, while Adam Bandt was viewed positively by 10%, neutrally by 26% and negatively by 26%, with 38% unfamiliar. With six propositions to choose from, 38% of RedBridge’s respondents favoured clearly negative propositions against 29% for clearly positive, while 14% opted a broadly neutral “party of protest and disruption”.
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 50.5-49.5 to 51-49, from primary votes of Labor 29% (down one-and-a-half), Coalition 39% (up one-and-a-half), Greens 13.5% (up one) and One Nation 6.5% (steady). The two-party measure based on preference flows at the 2022 election is at 50-50, after Labor led 51-49 last week. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1675. Roy Morgan also has a forced response SMS poll, conducted during the royal visit on October 22 and 23 from a sample of 1312, recording a 61-39 split in favour of keeping the existing Australian flag.
• Also out this week was the regular quarterly Tasmanian state poll from EMRS, showing the Liberals’ lead at its narrowest in many a long year, with Labor up four to 31%, Liberal down one to 35%, the Greens steady on 14% and the Jacqui Lambie Network down two to 6%. Jeremy Rockliff’s lead over Dean Winter as preferred premier narrows from 45-30 to 43-37. Also featured are new questions inviting respondents to rate the leaders on a scale from zero to ten, recording 37% favourable, 36% neutral and 22% unfavourable for Rockliff, and 25% favourable, 38% neutral and 11% unfavourable for Winter. The poll was conducted November 5 to 14 from a sample of 1000.
A Prahran by-election would give a lot of useful electoral data in how Victoria is truly going at the moment.
If the Liberals win, Allan’s government is in trouble, and looks like it may repeat the end of the Brumby government in 2026 as it did in 2010.
If the Greens win, it’ll probably be a status quo result and would end up more like the 2006 election where a few seats are lost for the incumbent Labor government, but not enough to lose power.
If Labor wins, that will put pressure on the Victorian Liberals and Greens both.
It really depends on what happens in the US too and it is not clear how it will go down. Responding to the shocks and right wing aggressive behaviour in ways that emphasise our Australian culture is different from theirs could bring us together.
This is interesting. Remember Fukuyama, End of History book, he has written a note to Elon.
“In any event, firing government bureaucrats is not necessarily a path to greater efficiency. It is a widely believed myth that the federal bureaucracy is bloated and overstaffed. This is not the case: there are basically the same number of full-time federal employees today as there were back in 1969, about 2.3 million. This is despite the fact that the government now disburses more than five times as many dollars as it did back then. ”
https://open.substack.com/pub/persuasion1/p/a-letter-to-elon-musk?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=3adf2s
Fukuyama has come a long way since that book.
Confessions says:
Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 5:35 pm
Even if the govt did have a trigger, the timing for a DD election really isn’t feasible.
I’d say that option is off the table.
=====================================
Def no DD next year.
I mentioned upthread that Albo needs to ramp things up from Jul-1 next year and threaten a DD in 2026, in order to get his legislation through parliament. That is, if Labor gets re-elected.
He’ll be dealing with roughly the same senate make up next year, so unless he wants to have another 3 years of this, then he will need to focus his energy on racking up triggers, after the new Senate takes place on Jul-1-2025.
Who was the leader of the house during the last Labor minority government? Did they pass much legislation?
It will be a very interesting by-election that one, Kirsdarke.
Primaries last election were:
* GREEN 36.4%
* LIBS 31.1%
* ALP 26.6%
Final 2PP Greens 62%
Any idea of a date. Surely not Mar-8? Only joking.
Nadia linked to Prof Twomey’s YT channel earlier and it seems that her view is that the electoral reform bill should be subject to far more scrutiny and should it pass in its current state it would inevitably be challenged and more likely than not be deemed invalid, in parts, by the High Court.
Which mj, is exactly what you & P1 were alluding to earlier today.
I read your earlier posts, decided to check for myself, so I suppose thanks for bringing it to the attention of the site. Twomey comes across to me as fairly switched on too.
nadia88 @ #957 Saturday, November 23rd, 2024 – 5:54 pm
Actually 8 March might pretty much be a legitimate date for a by-election. Usually it takes place 2 months after a resignation, but in the new year period that’s probably out of the question for a January or February date. And it’s happened before, by-elections being held at the same time as other state elections.
There might be some good vibes in store in holding it on the same date as the WA 2025 state election.
nadia88 says:
Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 4:25 pm
Working on the assumption that Albo hangs on next year, I think he’s got to go hard on the Senate after Jul-1, and start racking up some DD triggers. He also needs an attack dog who can start blaming individual Senators for participating in the legislative roadblock. An attack dog who can turn the volume up. Bully the senate into submission or threaten them with a DD in 2026.
It’s the only mechanism he has so he’s going to have to use it unless he wants another 3 years of this.
Labor should pick up one or two extra Senators (given 2019 was a strong conservative senate result), but they’ll still be dealing with most of the current crossbench. The Greens are on track to get a Senator up in each state. Pocock will surely get re-elected. Jacqui might be in strife.
He’s just got to go for it. The swinging voters (who actually determine election results) will back a fighter.
********************************
You are absolutely right. That would work.
Albo should go to the election with some real cost of living and housing proposals that will make people believe he has a plan to help them, hope like hell to get a majority in the house of reps, push forward aggressively with his legislation in the senate, refuse to negotiate with the Greens or Liberals who just keep setting him up to fail, threaten them with a double dissolution, and be prepared to stare them down.
And that would solve his two main problems – the first being the perception that he’s weak and the second being that he can’t get anything done. Promising to raise the JobSeeker allowance would also go a long way to reconvince people he cares.
Then maybe he could go on to be a successful three term PM. But is he up to it?
Labor has a majority in the house of reps with 78 seats. There are 12 independents with the majority backed by the Teals.
The issue of climate change was put to rest at the last election for once and for all. Albo made a promise that the climate wars would end, and that we would now have cheaper energy prices by $275 a year.
Albo is behind in the polls because he has FAILED to deliver. Energy prices have contributed to inflation, higher interest rates, and higher rents.
Albo can still win the election, I will share what I believe he needs to do to win early in the new year.
My question is to Player One:
What is it that you want Albo to do?
Don’t hold back, stop pussyfooting around, let’s hear it!
Latest Juice Media government ad.*
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-oxQ5fmiI9M
*Definitely not suitable for Libor and Laberal rusties.
Mexicanbeemersays:
Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 4:42 pm
[Albo can fix his problems by doing a few simple things because the criticism is about what he isn’t doing.]
What are these simple things?
What I don’t get is how people talk about a Double Dissolution election as if it would show strength by the Albanese government, to the extent that it would show commitment to the Labor policies that have been blocked by The Greens-Liberals-Nationals Coalition in the Senate. Whereas, I am of the view that is contrary to this idea as I believe the electorate would equate it to political grandstanding and bullying of the Senate and an ‘anti-democratic’ attempt to override the Senate which they have put in place with their votes.
So I think that the Albanese government should instead go to the election at the normal time but campaign on those policies that The Greens-Liberal-Nationals Coalition have blocked in the Senate. Then get a mandate to implement them and hopefully more Labor Senators to override the Blocking Coalition.
mjsays:
Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 4:57 pm
[So it’s everyone but Albo and Labor’s fault for the hole they’re in? This is called living in denial.]
So what exactly is it that has caused the hole.
What are the opposition parties going to do which are better ,?
Sohar @ #963 Saturday, November 23rd, 2024 – 6:14 pm
Only for the Inner City dilettantes such as yourself.
I hear that Trump has appointed Scott Bessent to head treasury. Apparently Bessent is invested in oil, gas, and coal companies and has said that he wants the US to be an energy superpower again, along with Trump who is going to drill baby drill.
How can climate change be mitigated if the US is going to continue to pollute?
I say, let’s look after our pocket first and foremost and go for the real cheapest and most reliable form of energy we have!
Nadia88
[He’s just got to go for it. The swinging voters (who actually determine election results) will back a fighter.]
What is it that he’s got to go for?
goll @ #964 Saturday, November 23rd, 2024 – 6:25 pm
It’s so easy to throw out a simple slogan by way of a critique. A LOT harder to make constructive criticism.
C@t:
I wouldn’t be grandstanding about it, but it does make sense to negotiate with those 3 senators who have buckleys of being re-elected to the senate, making it clear that the government isn’t afraid of using a trigger to call a DD election.
Thorpe is a loose cannon and quite likely to scream to anyone who cares to listen that she’s being disenfranchised by the powers of the colonising, dominant majority if Labor tried to negotiate with her. But I do think it’s a risk worth taking. The sooner the senate is rid of crazy people like her, the better.
If only there were a way to dislodge Hanson, a lifelong taxpayer grifter who has done absolutely nothing for this country.
Albo is seen fundamentally as a cowardly, useless leader – I doubt he’ll put anything forward that may be seen as remotely politically risky which in turn would just reinforce that image. Even if he ends up proposing bolder policy initiatives people will naturally be sceptical and wonder why none of this was floated, and in some cases actively shot down, in the previous 3 years. Albo is clearly no political mastermind.
goll @ #969 Saturday, November 23rd, 2024 – 6:30 pm
I think nadia88 wants the sort of spectacle that Tony Abbott, Scott Morrison and Donald Trump give voters. I don’t think it’s ever seen as genuine coming from a Labor leader though. Especially as he’s never been like that for the rest of his political life.
C@t,
[Explain how he gets around a blocking majority in the Senate?]
Has Nadia has said, there are mechanisms to attempt to get around the coalition of NoNoNo..
The moment Mr Albanese and Labor attempt to use these mechanisms the forces will amass to smash Labor, hoping they go to an early election and make it the issue.
Why would be it suit the coalition of the unwilling ?
Simply the confined policy demands of the coalition are irrationally unachievable.
I suppose he could start by providing evidence that he’s not the weak cowardly little politician that his enemies portray him as.
Like it or not, that’s what the narrative is at the moment.
Kirsdarkesays:
Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 6:37 pm
I suppose he could start by providing evidence that he’s not the weak cowardly little politician that his enemies portray him as.
____________
Set the tone straight away. Next Sitting Day walk in with a brick and bash the first person to look at him sideways. Same way as getting respect in Prison.
Trump’s cabinet so far is looking rather male and rather white and so very anti-meritocratic. The #MeToo Reality TV cabinet.
Player One.
[It’s not about leadershit, but it is about a shit leader. Albo has demonstrated that he cannot negotiate with the cross bench, even when it is in our interest (but not his interest) that he do so]
What is “our interest” ?
Give an example,
And is that Linda McMahon’s legitimate official photo? It looks like what the WWE might have had for her.
The fifth African American Sec of HUD.
“The Rise of Weak, Incompetent & Corrupt Leaders | Lee Kuan Yew’s WARNING”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v6WCtJrUEOo
Confessions @ #971 Saturday, November 23rd, 2024 – 6:31 pm
There’s the kernel of an idea there. Thorpe may want a Truth Telling Commission. Which I don’t think would frighten the horses too much. Definitely no promise of a Treaty until it’s been put to the people. Especially considering what’s going on over the ditch in NZ wrt their Treaty right now. I also understand that she’s not entirely unreasonable and has negotiated successfully with Labor in the past.
Hanson will have to be carried out in a box. She’s the OG political cult leader of the Uptighty Whities of the 21st century. Anyway, do you really want James Ashby in the Senate?
Jacqui Lambie might be won over if the NACC was reformed to get rid of the guy who’s heading it right now and royally stuffing things up. There’s also her pet issue of Veterans Suicide. In fact, here’s an idea out of left field. Promise her the Veterans Affairs Ministry in a returned Albanese government if she gives them her vote now. These sort of deals work in state and territory governments and overseas, so why not here in the federal government? A Labor MP’s nose will be out of joint but too bad.
Though as all of this is predicated on a Double Dissolution election eliminating the above people, I think it’s heroic of you to think that they would be gotten rid of by the voters and Labor would be the beneficiaries. I actually think they would be returned considering the reduced quota that they would need and the sympathy vote they would get.
ps still good for tomoz?
What is Peter Dutton representing the Liberals Party taking to the next election?
A nuclear policy, unfunded, unscientific and unwanted “in anyone’s backyard.
What are the Liberal Policy list?
Then is they spruik a policy or two when do we know the details.
The Greens are suggesting implausible ideas.
Give us some details!
The Nationals have nothing but denial of renewable energy, more dams, rural subsidies……..
So even if one accepts in the Albanese inadequacies, Labor’s poor use of media and the conga line of whingers, just what has been presented by the other contenders which is better?
The reality is that with the current structure of Australia’s Parliament it is near on impossible to push through contentious issues
Even with control of both houses of Parliament the structured a minefield of political bombs.
Australia doesn’t have honesty as a media rock solid tenet.
Ask Howard how work choices worked out!
dave says:
Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 6:40 pm
Set the tone straight away. Next Sitting Day walk in with a brick and bash the first person to look at him sideways. Same way as getting respect in Prison.
**********************************
“ However, the general attitude from the Chair has been that visual props are ‘tolerated but not encouraged’. [151] An important distinction is made between Members displaying articles to illustrate a point being made in a speech and the display of articles or signs by Members who do not have the call.”
https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/House_of_Representatives/Powers_practice_and_procedure/Practice7/HTML/Chapter14/Manner_and_right_of_speech#:~:text=%5B150%5D%20However%2C%20the%20general,do%20not%20have%20the%20call.
So, the brick might be “tolerated” as a prop but before the actual bashing you’d have to have the call. And then during the bashing you’d have to be able to show that you were illustrating a point in your speech.
Who the hell is Scott Turner!?! I’ve never heard of him. What happened to rewarding Tim Scott & Byron Donalds for their fealty?
There is news from the US that health authorities have just recalled 160,000 pounds of mince meat because of E.coli (that’s poop) contamination. Isn’t organisations like government health departments what Trump’s mob reckon are a waste of money?
It doesn’t seem that Player One is around, or maybe she’s chicken.
Maybe one of her fellow Greeny might want to answer the question.
What is it that you want Albo to do? Don’t hold back, let’s hear it!
In theory, the Prahran by-election could held over the Christmas New year period, I suspect that they might set the date in early February (2nd or 9th). Too many people are going on holiday.
Boerwar
“ Dutton and Bandt are blocking 40,000 cheap houses. They are backing an increase in student numbers. Dutton can’t control his abortion crazies.”
================================================
Labor can’t say this too often between now and the next Federal election.
Night all.
All hail that hero of democracy and workers’ rights Lee Kuan Yew.
One more thing. As Defence decisions go this is a good one. Building a larger number of an economic multi-role vessel that will be useful in peace (transport and disaster relief) or war (troop transport). Very useful in northern Australia.
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2024/11/australia-taps-damen-for-landing-craft-heavy-requirement/
The bigger production run (8) should lead to efficiency, quality and hopefully better prices.
I can’t wait to see the turkeys voting for Dutton in a hip pocket election:
1. suppressed real wages
2. voted against the S3 tax cuts
3. wants to increase numbers of people coming in
4. wanted to detroy bulk billing
5. voted against energy bill relief
6. left inflation at double the level it is now
Shogun says:
Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 7:13 pm
All hail that hero of democracy and workers’ rights Lee Kuan Yew
— ——
Sure he was far from perfect, but he got shit done and was actually competent. How quaint.
“My question is to Player One:
What is it that you want Albo to do?
Don’t hold back, stop pussyfooting around, let’s hear it!”
I agree with this. I’ve noticed Player One and MJ have been using these phrases but very little detail or substance in their comments”Albo’s a shit leader”, ‘Labor’s shit’. Lots of empty phrases very little substance. It does lower the standard of debate and its not fraction of the debate on the Queensland and US threads. And no I didn’t agree everything said in those threads but debate was alot more then empty phrases.
‘mj says:
Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 7:22 pm
Shogun says:
Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 7:13 pm
All hail that hero of democracy and workers’ rights Lee Kuan Yew
— ——
Sure he was far from perfect, but he got shit done and was actually competent.’
===========================================
Morrison/Dutton did shit and were actually incompetent to boot. A trillion dollar debt most of it feeding taxpayer’s cash into the maws of crony capitalists while suppressing wages and lifting inflation while failing to spend a cent on housing and while white-anting skills development.
What.A.Bloody.Mess. Will the turkeys have the memories of goldfish?
Shogun @ #990 Saturday, November 23rd, 2024 – 7:13 pm
I’m fascinated in a kind of scared way that the far right and the far left are simultaneously embracing authoritarian tendencies.
Especially about the blocking cheap housing.
Rainmansays:
So, the brick might be “tolerated” as a prop but before the actual bashing you’d have to have the call. And then during the bashing you’d have to be able to show that you were illustrating a point in your speech.
____________________________________
Hmm.
Genghis Khan also got shit done.
Confessions – I am also fascinated by this. It is horseshoe politics.
Confessions says:
Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 7:31 pm
Shogun @ #990 Saturday, November 23rd, 2024 – 7:13 pm
All hail that hero of democracy and workers’ rights Lee Kuan Yew.
I’m fascinated in a kind of scared way that the far right and the far left are simultaneously embracing authoritarian tendencies.
———
Posting a video of LKY doesn’t mean I endorse authoritarian govt, he simply has some wise things to say that are worth considering even if you don’t agree with plenty of things he did.
And please stop insinuating that I’m far left it’s the Labor party that has drifted off the reservation and abandoned social democrats.
Uh oh. There’s another outbreak of the horseshoe theory virus.