As Newspoll off-weeks go, a big week for polling, with three further federal voting intention results following upon Freshwater Strategy:
• The fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor down a point to 30%, the Coalition up one to 35%, the Greens up one to 13% and One Nation down two to 7%, with undecided steady at 5%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor moving into a 48-47 lead, after trailing 49-47 last time. Also featured are the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Anthony Albanese down a point on approval to 43% and steady on 48% disapproval, while Peter Dutton is down three to 42% and up two to 41%. A regular “national mood” question reports an improved result off a low base, with a five-point increase in the sentiment that the country is heading in the right direction to 35%, and a four-point decrease for wrong track to 48%. A forced response question on the cause of hotter temperatures records only a 52-48 break in favour of climate change over normal fluctuations, although only 19% rate that Australia is doing too much to address the problem, compared with 33% for not enough and 37% for about right. The poll also finds only mildly negative views on the Trump administration’s likely impact on the global economy and global conflicts, and records 28% favouring Labor’s proposed 20% HECS debt cut over 36% for no change and 36% for abolishing student debt altogether. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1206.
• RedBridge Group has a federal poll recording a tie on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 34%, Coalition 39% and Greens 11%. Further findings from the poll include 54% approval of how Australian federal and state governments handled the COVID pandemic, with 42% disapproval; 53% awareness that the federal government rejected Qatar Airways’ application to increase flights to Australia, with 39% unaware; and 61% perceiving the government gave Qantas preferential treatment in the matter, with 11% disagreeing. The poll was conducted November 6 to 13 from a sample of 2011.
• Both the RedBridge Group poll and last week’s Resolve Strategic poll had questions on perceptions of the Greens. Resolve Strategic found the party was viewed positively by 24%, negatively by 44% and neutrally by 29%, while Adam Bandt was viewed positively by 10%, neutrally by 26% and negatively by 26%, with 38% unfamiliar. With six propositions to choose from, 38% of RedBridge’s respondents favoured clearly negative propositions against 29% for clearly positive, while 14% opted a broadly neutral “party of protest and disruption”.
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 50.5-49.5 to 51-49, from primary votes of Labor 29% (down one-and-a-half), Coalition 39% (up one-and-a-half), Greens 13.5% (up one) and One Nation 6.5% (steady). The two-party measure based on preference flows at the 2022 election is at 50-50, after Labor led 51-49 last week. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1675. Roy Morgan also has a forced response SMS poll, conducted during the royal visit on October 22 and 23 from a sample of 1312, recording a 61-39 split in favour of keeping the existing Australian flag.
• Also out this week was the regular quarterly Tasmanian state poll from EMRS, showing the Liberals’ lead at its narrowest in many a long year, with Labor up four to 31%, Liberal down one to 35%, the Greens steady on 14% and the Jacqui Lambie Network down two to 6%. Jeremy Rockliff’s lead over Dean Winter as preferred premier narrows from 45-30 to 43-37. Also featured are new questions inviting respondents to rate the leaders on a scale from zero to ten, recording 37% favourable, 36% neutral and 22% unfavourable for Rockliff, and 25% favourable, 38% neutral and 11% unfavourable for Winter. The poll was conducted November 5 to 14 from a sample of 1000.
mj says:
Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 2:29 pm
Yep P1 the major parties are clearly attempting to rig the rules in their favour now that they sense that their duopoly is under imminent, possibly irreversible threat. Who cares about integrity and democracy. Hopefully the High Court intervenes.
=================================
Hey mj,
The act, if it gets through, won’t take effect until the election afterwards.
There will be plenty of time for any sort of high court involvement.
Prof Anne Twomey has raised some issues, and she is usually fairly restrained.
She has also raised concerns about the mis-dis bill which looks like it will sink next week.
She’s a straight talker, not a waffler.
Link for Anne Twomey, if you wish to have a listen to her podcasts.
https://www.youtube.com/@constitutionalclarion1901/videos
Socrates @ #900 Saturday, November 23rd, 2024 – 3:53 pm
The neglect is not that such things happen. Of course they do. It is that when they happen, Labor need to do more than just emulate a kangaroo in the high beam, not knowing which way to jump. No wonder they now look like getting run over.
Mundo says:
Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 3:36 pm
Anyone else on the edge of their seat in anticipation of an Albo rabbit from hat trick to save us from Dutton or is it really too late…..
=============================
No & no to both
P1
Yes I did say earlier today that Albo has been too overly focused on stability and too slow to correct errors. The NACC case is a good example.
It might sound a pedantic distinction but I would put that down to nervousness or loss of confidence after the Voice failed than neglect though.
The only ones to save themselves from Dutton is the voters. Who the fuck else could it be.?
Some stupid statements on here.
Socrates @ #904 Saturday, November 23rd, 2024 – 4:06 pm
Yes, I think that’s probably right. But he doesn’t look like he’s ever going to get over it, which leaves us with the choice of re-electing a sook as our Prime Minister, or … what? 🙁
tripitaka @ #871 Saturday, November 23rd, 2024 – 1:28 pm
‘despite any evidence that may come out’!?! 😯
P1
It can only be Dutton. Who is going to vote for Mr 10%, apart from the rusted on.
Socrates @ #905 Saturday, November 23rd, 2024 – 4:06 pm
Exactly. Though a realistic fact-based assessment like that never stops the Anti Labor Party brigade from creating their own personal fantasy out of tissue paper.
It’s like I was saying about Republicans. They care more about who uses toilets than they do about colleagues or friends who sexually assault people. Just substitute Abbott’s climate rubbish and pronouns politics for biological men using women’s bathrooms and it’s exactly the same.
steve davis @ #908 Saturday, November 23rd, 2024 – 4:13 pm
Actually, if Labor is forced into minority, Albo would clearly not be the right person to lead the resulting government. I think Labor would probably realize that.
So, there may be hope for us yet.
And like I said earlier, the government has to administer policies across multiple issues. It isn’t like you just focus on one thing to the exclusion of everything else. The wheels of government don’t work like that.
C@tmomma @ #907 Saturday, November 23rd, 2024 – 4:13 pm
What’s that whooshing noise?
Next year’s election slogun.
DON’T LET DUTTON TRUMP AUSTRALIA.
Rainman says:
Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 3:21 pm
Rex Douglas says:
Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 10:29 am
If Labor wants to maintain a lower house majority Govt, it simply needs to do better. It’s not rocket science.
********************************
If Labor does retain a lower house majority, it will only be because they have not yet exhausted all of the voters’ goodwill, and still seems a better alternative than Dutton’s Liberals………
All Labor can do is try to convince people that they will do better if given another chance. Difficult but not impossible.
My word of advice would be to stop blaming being unable to pass legislation on the Greens and independents. It only reinforces in people’s minds that they are unable to pass legislation.
=========================================================
Hey Rainman,
Working on the assumption that Albo hangs on next year, I think he’s got to go hard on the Senate after Jul-1, and start racking up some DD triggers. He also needs an attack dog who can start blaming individual Senators for participating in the legislative roadblock. An attack dog who can turn the volume up. Bully the senate into submission or threaten them with a DD in 2026.
It’s the only mechanism he has so he’s going to have to use it unless he wants another 3 years of this.
Labor should pick up one or two extra Senators (given 2019 was a strong conservative senate result), but they’ll still be dealing with most of the current crossbench. The Greens are on track to get a Senator up in each state. Pocock will surely get re-elected. Jacqui might be in strife.
He’s just got to go for it. The swinging voters (who actually determine election results) will back a fighter.
Actually, if Labor is forced into minority, Albo would clearly not be the right person to lead the resulting government.
@Player One
I don’t think anything would please you Player One. You have said for 3 years “if only there was a Labor minority government with the teals”. Now you have conviently moved the goal posts.
Political Nightwatchman @ #916 Saturday, November 23rd, 2024 – 4:29 pm
Not at all. I have always said that my first preference would be for a minority Labor government. Still is.
But can you honestly see Albo leading such a government? I can’t, and I don’t think his caucus colleagues would be able to either.
Nadia
“He’s just got to go for it. The swinging voters (who actually determine election results) will back a fighter”
I think so too. Some vision about bringing people together, not like the right wing loons want, a more fractured and atomised society.
Be brave.
“But can you honestly see Albo leading such a government? I can’t, and I don’t think his caucus colleagues would be able to either.”
@Player One
I do. I doubt they wanna go back to the chopping and changing nonsense of the Rudd/ Gillard years. You underestimate this factor and so do some on here who play the leadershit card too.
With three House seats yet to be determined (one in Iowa & two in California, all of which are very close), two GOP House members joining Trump’s cabinet, and the special election for Gaetz set for April Fool’s Day (how appropriate), the House GOP majority could be as low as two to four – currently, 219 GOP; 213 Dems. A lot could happen between now & the half-term elections.
Albo can fix his problems by doing a few simple things because the criticism is about what he isn’t doing.
Hey Mavis,
Yep, I said the same thing the other week.
Voters are volatile at the moment, and turning on gov’t’s five minutes after electing them (look at the U.K polling where the Tories have taken the lead on a couple of recent polls).
Trump is playing with fire creating so many House elections when he has a threadbare majority. He could be dealing with Hakeem Jeffries by May.
tripitaka says:
Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 4:37 pm
Nadia
“He’s just got to go for it. The swinging voters (who actually determine election results) will back a fighter”
I think so too. Some vision about bringing people together, not like the right wing loons want, a more fractured and atomised society.
Be brave.
=====================
Voters (people) back a fighter.
He’s got to take the senate head on, unless we’re all going to sit around for another 3 years and the only bills getting approved are the budget and the annual parliamentary pay rise.
There is a mechanism in the constitution – he needs to use it, or at least threaten it. The only way.
She’s a straight talker, not a waffler.
Link for Anne Twomey, if you wish to have a listen to her podcasts.
https://www.youtube.com/@constitutionalclarion1901/videos
——
Thank you Nadia, I will watch some of these and see what she has to say. Her views usually seem well-informed and reasoned.
Mexicanbeemer @ #922 Saturday, November 23rd, 2024 – 4:42 pm
Explain how he gets around a blocking majority in the Senate?
Honestly, the Coalition has become the Liberals + Nationals + The Greens.
In CA13 Duarte is leading by 203 votes.
Labor could do well to do more in the social media sphere. It did fairly well for Steven Miles in Queensland, even if it wasn’t enough to win with the hundreds of millions the coal barons were hurling against him.
Relatively younger MP’s like Dan Repacholi in Hunter would probably be good at this. Labor will lose if they rely solely on legacy media. The ABC are full of cowardly rodents that fear the Coalition and so will never give them a fair go. Murdoch, 9-Fairfax and Stokes’ mob happily verbally spit in their faces at any opportunity.
Go around them. The average Labor politician tends to be much more human than the average Liberal politician, they’re pretty much mostly freaks like Trump’s clown show in the USA.
And yes, go hard against something, build a narrative, paint the opposition as the villains, go hard against them. “Well that lot claim to want to cut immigration, yet they voted against a bill that would do just that, what’s up with that? They’re a bunch of lying hypocrites that only want power, they’re not fighting for you like we are.”
Mexicanbeemer @ #921 Saturday, November 23rd, 2024 – 4:42 pm
What he isn’t doing isn’t being done because the Greens constantly side with the coalition to automatically block all Labor legislation.
nadia88:
Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 4:44 pm
Hi Nadi, agree. As you say, Starmer’s popularity certainly dipped in near record time. The two House members joining Trump’s cabinet will result in special elections that might result in buyer’s remorse after the choice of some of his cabinet nominees. Also, Americans usually prefer some oversight by at least one arm of government, so all’s not lost.
Snap, C@t!
I thought his TikToks were great. The LNP tried to emulate them, but just ended up looking either whiny and uncool or just whiny and daggy.
Plibersek does an okay job on Instagram, but I agree trying more of the really engaging videos Miles did would be a good start.
So it’s everyone but Albo and Labor’s fault for the hole they’re in? This is called living in denial.
C@T
Explain how he gets around a blocking majority in the Senate?
Honestly, the Coalition has become the Liberals + Nationals + The Greens.
———-
That hasn’t stopped Albo doing his gender policies but if the senate blocked his policies he can use that against them.
Political Nightwatchman @ #919 Saturday, November 23rd, 2024 – 4:38 pm
It’s not about leadershit, but it is about a shit leader. Albo has demonstrated that he cannot negotiate with the cross bench, even when it is in our interest (but not his interest) that he do so. He is therefore not the right person for such a job. I would hope that he would probably realize that and go without a fuss. If he dug in and tried to stay on, he would probably end up being rolled anyway (and probably sooner rather than later) and then Labor could be accused of more leadershit nonsense.
Fessy
What he isn’t doing isn’t being done because the Greens constantly side with the coalition to automatically block all Labor legislation.
———–
Greens are being difficult but leadership is about picking fights and getting results. Howard used to say you want to get 80%.
C@tmomma @ #925 Saturday, November 23rd, 2024 – 4:53 pm
Ummmm … negotiate? You paint the block as monolithic because it suits your narrative – but it is not.
Bye-election in Victoria as former Green resigns from Parliament: Prahran MP Sam Hibbins announces he is quitting parliament.
Dutton and Bandt are blocking 40,000 cheap houses. They are backing an increase in student numbers. Dutton can’t control his abortion crazies.
Albanese should refuse to prorogue parliament to concentrate the minds of the electorate on the hypocritical bastardy of Destructo and Misery Guts.
Mexican:
People expect the parliament to be able to work functionally, and it can’t when you have the Greens and the Coalition refusing to negotiate or work collaboratively with the government. They both know that rejecting the government’s bills hurts Labor politically, and that’s why they are behaving like this. Although having said that, the Greens’ intransigence has cost them seats in elections recently, and Bandt has taken a hit to his popularity, so perhaps the voters have twigged to their behaviour.
The PM has started to sound a bit more punchy the past few weeks, certainly since the US election. I think that’s a good thing.
Prahran will be a test for the greens and about half the seat overlaps Brandt’s federal seat.
This is very convenient from my perspective, because I’ve put a lot of effort recently until developing a three-candidate preferred system for projecting election results precisely to deal with cases like Prahran, where the result can be determined by who finishes third. I implemented it for the Black by-election, but it was a straightforward two-party race where the situation didn’t arise.
https://pollbludger.net/sa2024by2/Results/HA.htm?s=Black
C@tmomma says:
Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 4:53 pm
Mexicanbeemer @ #922 Saturday, November 23rd, 2024 – 4:42 pm
Albo can fix his problems by doing a few simple things because the criticism is about what he isn’t doing.
Explain how he gets around a blocking majority in the Senate?
Honestly, the Coalition has become the Liberals + Nationals + The Greens.
========================================
It has to be a DD down the track c@t. It’s the only mechanism a gov’t has.
The Senators who face election in 2028, all want to remain in the senate until then.
So we’ve got:
* Babet
* Pauline
* Thorpe
* Payman
* Tyrell
So the gov’t has to start with this list.
3 of those Senators have minimal prospects of getting re-elected in 2028, so they’d probably capitulate to avoid exiting the Senate earlier.
Add the 2 Senators the ALP should pick up next year (1 in Qld, possib 1 in WA, maybe even 1 in Tas if the Lambie vote sinks), and now Albo has some serious numbers in his favour.
It’s all about the brutal tactics of getting that magic number 39 in the Senate.
mj – the voters elect the parliament, and the Greens, Nats, Libs, Pocock, Hanson, Lambie are representing the wishes of their constituents. They’re not going to change and if the public gives them control of the Senate then they will continue to sabotage. What I am saying is that there is a mechanism to overcome this, and Albo (if he hangs on next year), needs to be prepared to use it.
Otherwise we have another 3 years of this.
nadia88 @ #941 Saturday, November 23rd, 2024 – 5:17 pm
An excellent incentive to change your vote.
@Kirksdale
I agree they need to make better use of social media but the low impulse control aggro path will look terrible really childish don’t go there.
They need to point to New Zealand and tell people if we had done what Dutton wanted us to do we would be right where they are.
I have no idea if it’s true or not, lot of moving parts in an economy, but they must defend their record on the economy if they can’t do that they can’t win.
They are the incumbent government, they are asking for another go – they can’t run a campaign pretending the last three years didn’t happen. There is no choice but to own it and spin the best story about it you can.
nadia:
Am I right in remembering the government already has a DD trigger?
Confessions says:
Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 5:22 pm
nadia:
Am I right in remembering the government already has a DD trigger?
=================================================
I stand corrected, but I don’t believe they have one yet.
I believe the Treasury Laws Amendment Bill 2024 (a.k.a Build to Rent), may be a trigger if it’s blocked next week, that is if it is actually re-listed in the Senate.
A poster pointed out last week that the gov’t would be happy to let this bill die.
The govt has to have an agenda that is broadly supported and have a relatively high level of popular support even if there is a DD trigger before pulling it. It does not have that support, and would likely go backwards at any DD election held now. Anyway I think it’s run out of time this term DD’s can’t be held in the last 6 months of a term.
Even if the govt did have a trigger, the timing for a DD election really isn’t feasible.
I’d say that option is off the table.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-17/could-there-be-double-dissolution-election-/104360258
Link
There’s as much chance of a double dissolution election in coming months as there is of me winning the big prize in lotto*.
* I never buy lotto tickets
Sam Hibbins just resigned.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/hibbins-quits-parliament-claims-spring-street-office-hit-with-offensive-graffiti-20241123-p5kt0d.html
At least he had the decency to quit, unlike one Member for New England.