As Newspoll off-weeks go, a big week for polling, with three further federal voting intention results following upon Freshwater Strategy:
• The fortnightly Essential Research poll has Labor down a point to 30%, the Coalition up one to 35%, the Greens up one to 13% and One Nation down two to 7%, with undecided steady at 5%. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor moving into a 48-47 lead, after trailing 49-47 last time. Also featured are the pollster’s monthly leadership ratings, which have Anthony Albanese down a point on approval to 43% and steady on 48% disapproval, while Peter Dutton is down three to 42% and up two to 41%. A regular “national mood” question reports an improved result off a low base, with a five-point increase in the sentiment that the country is heading in the right direction to 35%, and a four-point decrease for wrong track to 48%. A forced response question on the cause of hotter temperatures records only a 52-48 break in favour of climate change over normal fluctuations, although only 19% rate that Australia is doing too much to address the problem, compared with 33% for not enough and 37% for about right. The poll also finds only mildly negative views on the Trump administration’s likely impact on the global economy and global conflicts, and records 28% favouring Labor’s proposed 20% HECS debt cut over 36% for no change and 36% for abolishing student debt altogether. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1206.
• RedBridge Group has a federal poll recording a tie on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 34%, Coalition 39% and Greens 11%. Further findings from the poll include 54% approval of how Australian federal and state governments handled the COVID pandemic, with 42% disapproval; 53% awareness that the federal government rejected Qatar Airways’ application to increase flights to Australia, with 39% unaware; and 61% perceiving the government gave Qantas preferential treatment in the matter, with 11% disagreeing. The poll was conducted November 6 to 13 from a sample of 2011.
• Both the RedBridge Group poll and last week’s Resolve Strategic poll had questions on perceptions of the Greens. Resolve Strategic found the party was viewed positively by 24%, negatively by 44% and neutrally by 29%, while Adam Bandt was viewed positively by 10%, neutrally by 26% and negatively by 26%, with 38% unfamiliar. With six propositions to choose from, 38% of RedBridge’s respondents favoured clearly negative propositions against 29% for clearly positive, while 14% opted a broadly neutral “party of protest and disruption”.
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has the Coalition’s two-party lead out from 50.5-49.5 to 51-49, from primary votes of Labor 29% (down one-and-a-half), Coalition 39% (up one-and-a-half), Greens 13.5% (up one) and One Nation 6.5% (steady). The two-party measure based on preference flows at the 2022 election is at 50-50, after Labor led 51-49 last week. The poll was conducted last Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1675. Roy Morgan also has a forced response SMS poll, conducted during the royal visit on October 22 and 23 from a sample of 1312, recording a 61-39 split in favour of keeping the existing Australian flag.
• Also out this week was the regular quarterly Tasmanian state poll from EMRS, showing the Liberals’ lead at its narrowest in many a long year, with Labor up four to 31%, Liberal down one to 35%, the Greens steady on 14% and the Jacqui Lambie Network down two to 6%. Jeremy Rockliff’s lead over Dean Winter as preferred premier narrows from 45-30 to 43-37. Also featured are new questions inviting respondents to rate the leaders on a scale from zero to ten, recording 37% favourable, 36% neutral and 22% unfavourable for Rockliff, and 25% favourable, 38% neutral and 11% unfavourable for Winter. The poll was conducted November 5 to 14 from a sample of 1000.
Boerwar says:
Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 12:43 pm
The millions of people who are struggling to house themselves will be looking forward to the Greens getting out the fucking way for a change and Dutton’s intention to cut $19 billion in Federal housing funding.
————
You guys keep picking the same numbers off the bingo chart.
BW
The Greens will be obsolete under Dutton, and he won’t be building any social housing thats for sure. Not in the Lib DNA.
Oh that’s why the gender affirming alarmism.
But Nicholas is right: people just gotta learn how to tell bullshit from the truth
“You guys keep picking the same numbers off the bingo chart.”
All your lot do is whinge about immigration like a broken record.
mj
I agree, however the current govt has flagrantly neglected domestic issues of economic and social justice that makes good moves made diplomatically feel hollow.
—————–
Government’s problem isn’t poor social justice policy but half baked priorities more for the middle class.
On queue, in walks the weasle who cries about his poor generation missing out on a free ride via inheritance.
People who voted for Albo thought they were getting Bernie… but they ended up getting Blair…
People who voted Greens got Dutton.
To you.
And I don’t much care how you feel about things seeing as you’re quite happy to cheer on Mr 10%, the third most hated politician in the country as he sets about in concert with the Coalition to block sensible and necessary reforms that would benefit the most deserving Australians.
steve davis says:
Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 12:52 pm
“You guys keep picking the same numbers off the bingo chart.”
All your lot do is whinge about immigration like a broken record.
———
So you think this govt has been a good one? Nothing to complain about?
Holy shit Seb Gorka is back. Unbelievably obtuse appointment.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/22/trump-administration-transition/
Hmmm, given where things are at, I think the Labs can do better, because Libs won’t, even if it requires crossbenchers to make it happen.
People who voted for Albo thought they were getting Bernie… but they ended up getting Blair…
@Rex Douglas
The truth what Bernie is calling in the US has been achieved in Australia by Labor (Universal healthcare, end to upfront university fees, decent welfare system). Rex and Mj may come up with one liners “why Albo so shit”, but there contributions are not a fraction in substance or quality as the debate on the US and Queensland threads.
Confessions says:
Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 1:04 pm
I agree, however the current govt has flagrantly neglected domestic issues of economic and social justice that makes good moves made diplomatically feel hollow.
To you.
And I don’t much care how you feel about things seeing as you’re quite happy to cheer on Mr 10%, the third most hated politician in the country as he sets about in concert with the Coalition to block sensible and necessary reforms that would benefit the most deserving Australians.
————
Ok keep telling yourself that and see how it works out at the election.
The new Director of Counterterrorism.
Mj
Its hardly been a govt of tough measures considering the crap they inherited.
Upon establishing Hesgeth as an extremist, his chances of promotion were slim—he would’ve never got past the rank of major. Accordingly, he will have a rocky relationship with the military brass that failed to recognise his brilliance and potential. He’ll promote those who share his extremist views, which could have serious global ramifications. He may even resurrect disgraced & alleged Putin puppet Michael Flynn.
Trump to fire Jack Smith’s team — and order DOJ to investigate 2020 election: report
Trump wants to immediately seek revenge against the federal prosecutors who helped outgoing special counsel Jack Smith file two criminal cases against him, firing every attorney working under him
He also plans to “assemble investigative teams within the Justice Department to hunt for evidence in battleground states that fraud tainted the 2020 election. Trump lost the 2020 election and has repeatedly pushed baseless claims it was stolen. No audit in any battleground state has found evidence of fraud.
https://www.rawstory.com/trump-doj-2669986142/
Phoenix
Dictatorship in the offing.
https://chaser.com.au/general-news/tony-abbott-begins-drafting-another-character-reference/
They seem to be coming for all my friends these days,” said Abbott, “it’s times like this that shows a person’s character. Alan has helped fight against climate rubbish and pronoun politics for years, the least we can do is vouch for him despite any evidence that may come out.”
Audio has been released of Donald Trump’s pick for secretary of Health and Human Services, Robert F Kennedy Jr, comparing the president-elect to Hitler and suggesting some of his supporters were “outright Nazis” and “bootlickers”.
Clips were uncovered by CNN from Kennedy’s radio show “Ring of Fire”, when in 2016 the anti-vaccine activist applauded descriptions of Trump’s base as “belligerent idiots” in addition to the Nazi comments.
After Trump won the 2016 US election, Kennedy concluded in one episode from December of that year that Trump was at least in one way not like Adolf Hitler, because, “Hitler was interested in policy.”
Trump was also compared to historical demagogues like Hitler and Benito Mussolini, as Kennedy accused him of exploiting societal insecurities and xenophobia to amass power.
In another episode, RFK Jr accused the former president of racism “in every statement he makes.”, CNN reported. It said he explained: “You know, we have to be fear of the Muslims. We have to be fear of the black people, and particularly the big Black guy Obama.”
“And only one person has the genius and the capacity to solve these things. And I’m not gonna tell you how I’m gonna do it. Just trust in me, vote for me and everything will be great again. And of course, that whole thing is like a carnival barker,” Kennedy concluded.
steve davissays:
Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 12:16 pm
I totally agree steve Davis, it seems plenty of the whingers didn’t learn enough from nine years of dishonest, disingenuous and deflective LNP government, which ended with the “I don’t accept the premise” character who spent like a third world dictator.
Let the nuclear gasbaggers, less tax for the rich mates, the coal diggers and the selective immigration devotees have their moment again.
They can complete the job they started of being complete drop kicks as the scramble for more than their share of the spoils.
“Let the nuclear gasbaggers, less tax for the rich mates, the coal diggers and the selective immigration devotees have their moment again.
They can complete the job they started of being complete drop kicks as the scramble for more than their share of the spoils.”
Exactly what Dutton will do plus a load of austerity for the low to middle. Hes going to an election as policyless as possible then he cant be accused of breaking any promises if elected.
MMA champion Connor McGregor has lost 250k€ to a rape victim in a civil action in Dublin.
A political aspect: last month McGregor announced he would be a candidate in next year’s presidential election with a promise to dissolve the Dáil and appoint his own Taoiseach (neither of which the President can do – he obviously thought it was an executive rather than a figurehead role).
Ireland has direct elections for the president but fortunately it is almost impossible to be nominated without the backing of a major party and the powers of the president are prescribed.
So what would the alternative have done under the same set of circumstances?
As much as you’ve contributed to PB, absolutely nothing.
Nicholas
“So far the gender health clinicians of the United States, Canada, and Australia are studiously ignoring the Cass Review or deriding it as transphobic instead of engaging with its substance. That is a foolish approach that will not age well.”
————
Hasn’t the Victorian Minister for Health (i understand to be a former teacher and union official) already condemned the findings of the Cass Review as “misinformation”.
In the brave new world, it seems, politicians will determine what is correct medical “information”.
steve davis
Exactly what Dutton will do plus a load of austerity for the low to middle. Hes going to an election as policyless as possible then he cant be accused of breaking any promises if elected.
——————-
This line might work if labor was doing something for people at the bottom but it isn’t doing much.
Nicholas
Your summary of trans medical politics is refreshing
The medicalisation of various forms of diversity continues apace.
Anne Twomey (who knows a thing or two about constitutional law) on why Labor’s election funding reforms will fail if they are challenged in the High Court (which of course they will be) …
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/20/labor-electoral-campaign-finance-reforms-vulnerable-to-constitutional-challenge
Fail 1 – they are overly generous to big donors, who overwhelmingly donate to the duopoly:
A “cap” of $640,000 per year? And this “reform” is supposed to be taken seriously?
Fail 2 – they do not solve the problem they claim to address:
The purpose of these “reforms” does indeed seem to be to reduce the risk of buying of political influence … from anyone except the duopoly.
Fail 3: The are not even hiding the fact that they are skewed in favor of the duopoly:
The only way this could be any more blatant would be if they called it the “Duopoly Perpetuation Act”.
Twomey concludes …
You have to wonder why they bothered, since it is clear these changes will end up either being significantly modified, or (more likely) completely struck down.
Was it just so Labor could finally claim they were “doing something”? Or did they really expect to get away with such a blatant grab of public money?
We really are living in a “Colesworth” democracy.
Goll
All Dutton and Taylor have done have continually whinge and moan about what Labor has done to bring inflation down, with absolute zero solutions of their own for 2 and a half years now, opposing every cost of living measure Labor has legislated without any alternative or excuse why they are opposing them. Then you’ve got mini Dutton of the Greens blocking other measures as if they have some type of relevance in parliament. If Dutton is elected, mini Dutton will be booted out of the parliament stadium and out into the river and beyond into the wilderness of politics.
Morrison gave North Sydney council $10 million out of the Regional* Communities Fund for this disastrous infrastructure project.
* To a normal person ‘Regional’ does not mean a location adjacent to Sydney Harbour Bridge.
BK
My favourite Aussie woman…not.
But how true.
BK says:
Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 1:53 pm
Talking of “They/Them”, i saw on twitter this post: (I have no idea if it’s accurate).
“The most effective Trump TV ad during the election cycle was “Kamala Harris is for they/them, Donald Trump is for you.” They just saturated a number of markets with it for months.
Apparently Bill Clinton told the Harris camp “you guys have to answer that,” but they didn’t.”
citizen @ #882 Saturday, November 23rd, 2024 – 2:01 pm
Of course it does. To most people in the Eastern Suburbs, anything west of the Harbour Bridge (which this pool is) is not just “regional” (to them, this means Randwick) or even “rural” (to them, this means Centennial Park) … it is unimaginably “remote”.
goll says:
Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 1:45 pm
So what would the alternative have done under the same set of circumstances?
As much as you’ve contributed to PB, absolutely nothing
————
I contribute nothing because you don’t agree with me, got it.
Oh, and just in case you thought Anne Twomey’s dissection of Labor’s proposed election funding reforms was not enough to demonstrate their real intent, there’s also this one …
https://australiainstitute.org.au/post/eight-things-you-need-to-know-about-the-governments-plan-to-change-australian-elections/
Here’s a few more absolute shockers …
🙁
Yep P1 the major parties are clearly attempting to rig the rules in their favour now that they sense that their duopoly is under imminent, possibly irreversible threat. Who cares about integrity and democracy. Hopefully the High Court intervenes.
Read this, if you dare…
Apparently the Harris Campaign’s biggest spend was $280 million for a consultancy firm called Media Buying and Analytics LLC, that also did consultancy work for big pharma. That ended poorly, since obviously it meant that Harris couldn’t campaign against them.
https://readsludge.com/2024/11/13/the-democratic-consultants-getting-rich-off-the-harris-campaign-2/
It’s a biased source that I don’t know is true, but if it is, that’s what her campaign spent all that money on – consultants that helped her lose.
‘mj says:
Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 12:49 pm
Boerwar says:
Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 12:43 pm
The millions of people who are struggling to house themselves will be looking forward to the Greens getting out the fucking way for a change and Dutton’s intention to cut $19 billion in Federal housing funding.
————
You guys keep picking the same numbers off the bingo chart.’
==================
I know. I know. Your posts are WAY more informative: Albanese does nothing, nothing, nothing, nothing….
Clive&The Squal Teals in ‘Just Wanna Whinge about Me!’
Arab Americans voted to get Huckabee and Gorka into key positions…
Huckabee reckons there are no Palestinians. Gorka reckons Islam is a unique threat to western civilization.
…gobble, gobble, gobble
Make no mistake…
Trump.Gina.Dutton.
Rex Douglas says:
Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 10:29 am
If Labor wants to maintain a lower house majority Govt, it simply needs to do better. It’s not rocket science.
********************************
If Labor does retain a lower house majority, it will only be because they have not yet exhausted all of the voters’ goodwill, and still seems a better alternative than Dutton’s Liberals.
Probably a good reason to go early.
But it’s too late to actually do better. Everything now just seems rushed and desperate and not very well thought out. All Labor can do is try to convince people that they will do better if given another chance. Difficult but not impossible.
My word of advice would be to stop blaming being unable to pass legislation on the Greens and independents. It only reinforces in people’s minds that they are unable to pass legislation.
Kirsdarkesays:
Saturday, November 23, 2024 at 2:45 pm
Apparently the Harris Campaign…
I think it was Stephen Fry who said always be wary of any sentence that starts with the word “apparently”.
Anyone else on the edge of their seat in anticipation of an Albo rabbit from hat trick to save us from Dutton or is it really too late…..
If federal labor cared about cost of living they would not of created this crisis by bringing in a million plus people into Australia.
Mundo @ #896 Saturday, November 23rd, 2024 – 3:36 pm
If Albo is the rabbit, who does the pulling?
There was a pretty robust discussion about the matter on the Friendlyjordies podcast.
https://youtu.be/9YDehFBqnNQ?feature=shared&t=1770
(starts at 29:30, before that they have a discussion about Alan Jones)
Mj
“ I agree, however the current govt has flagrantly neglected domestic issues of economic and social justice that makes good moves made diplomatically feel hollow.”
=====================================
This criticism conflates two different things to reach a false implication.
Foreign policy is developed by the Foreign Affairs Department and Minister. Domestic social and economic policy is developed by the various other Ministries. They are not substitutes. They do not compete.
Success in foreign policy does not mean that the government was not trying or “neglected” domestic policy. You may not like the domestic policy and I agree mistakes have been made. But that doesn’t mean it was deliberate neglect.
The government has made mistakes like Dreyfus with the NACC appointment. They have been unlucky with issues like the world cost of living problem. I doubt they meant either to happen. Neither was neglect.