The monthly Freshwater Strategy poll for the Financial Review (presently available online in the paper’s subscriber-only digital edition) records no change of consequence on voting intention, with the Coalition maintaining a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred, with Labor steady on the primary vote at 30%, the Coalition down one to 40% and the Greens up one to 14%. Anthony Albanese is down two on approval to 33% and up one on disapproval to 50%, while Peter Dutton is steady on 37% and up two to 41%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 44-43 to 43-42.
The poll also finds 55% believe the world will be less safe with Donald Trump as President, compared with 28% for safer, and that 47% consider Peter Dutton “better placed to engage and negotiate” with Trump, compared with 36% for Anthony Albanese. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1046.
For those of us actually interested in creating a Progressive society this video, even though it is long, is worth listening to because it diagnoses some of the pathologies of the Lunar Left and how the Right has capitalised on them, cynically and opportunistically to their political benefit and also talks about the fracturing of the traditional coalition of the Left (also what Dutton is trying to do here). Solutions are proposed:
https://youtu.be/vkXJiEzWxFs?si=ja5W9iNy4uWw_WxB
Re the likely election date: if members are being encouraged to make valedictory speeches before Xmas, then Albo has to be looking at early March. However, there have been instances in the past of members being encouraged to make valedictory speeches before Xmas, and then Parliament has still come back in the new year for a while: I think this might have happened as recently as 2019. Governments normally determine the date for an election on the last possible day, so any thinking about March remains provisional at this point in time.
I shouldn’t worry about there being an early Budget. MYEFO (typically released in mid-December, but the date is flexible) provides a sort of “mini-Budget opportunity” or else the government could do some sort of economic statement in February with lots of budget goodies in it, any offsetting savings, and the latest Treasury estimate of the bottom line for 2025-26. The Hawke Government did exactly this in 1990 (as I well remember because I had to cancel some scheduled leave to work day and night on the bloody thing).
But I reckon Albo must be close to giving up on interest rate cuts coming before the second half of 2025. So why wait any longer for the election? Indeed, notwithstanding the findings of the Freshwater poll, the inauguration of Trump in late January is going to make voters feel unsure and nervous about the future, which could normally be expected to help an incumbent Australian government.
pp, you and your fellow recalcitrants are failures in a society where the very great majority succeed on the basis of effort AND using their brains
Instead of tapping away on a laptop 24/7, get out and about (including getting a job – there are plenty of them available even for the minimally educated such as you and your fellow influencers for envy and hate)
Simply and politically I believe that the Valedictory Speeches are being given now to get them out of the way so that the political messaging going into the election campaign won’t be tainted by any unexpected consequences from them. If any do occur then it will have blown over by the new year when the campaign will be in full swing.
The government needs a good pre-election Budget, I’d say in March, and a good story to tell and sell in the campaign. I’m hoping for the first interest rate cut in February.
“For those of us actually interested in creating a Progressive society”
Progressive society as defined by the Left?
Dream on.
Dutton will the PM next year. Le Pen will be President of France next election. Canada will have a Conservative government next year. And Starmer Labour will be out in one term, to be replaced by some combination of Reform and Tories. Nigel Farage as Prime Minister. The EU will dissolve within a decade.
And these will not be voted out of office as they consolidate power and autocratic rule.
The twenty-first century will be defined by conservatism, nationalism, anti-wokism, anti-“environmentalism” and one party rule. Mostly by men.
The first woman president of the USA hasn’t even been born (unless it’s Ivanka Trump).
Deepers @ #55 Monday, November 18th, 2024 – 9:11 am
It is my assessment that pied piper is a Baby Boomer whose wealth has fortuitously occurred as a result of rising house value and Superannuation, thus who now has the time to spend every day combing through, listening to and watching the RW media for jabs to take at Labor. One of Howard’s Battlers who is committed to carrying the can forever.
ScromoII @ #57 Monday, November 18th, 2024 – 9:13 am
Ah, the delusions of the Aggressive White Male pining for the Trad Wife and Trad Life. 😐
Give it a listen.
Ah, cat lady, I’m not pining, I already have them.
The sheer irony that YOU are the one who’s deluded into thinking that your “progressivism” is still worth wasting your energy on.
ScromoIIsays:
I’m not denying that Alan Jones isn’t an exclusive heterosexual. But there are plenty of other people who are in that category who are never prosecuted. Is it another Labor witch hunt?
__________________
Gee if it is a Labor witch hunt then it appears that a Labor faction have taken over the NSW Police child abuse squad.
If you think the housing crisis starting with Albo and migration then I’d like to ask you to recommend me a good rock to live under.
Its easy to forget when you already own a home but this crap has been going on for at least 20 years, only exacerbated by Covid and Morrison’s promise that people who mortgage houses at 5% will be compensated by the government
#weatheronPB
Cool caresses flow,
under hazy, lazy, sky,
gently refreshing.
It’s looking much less…mandate-y.
Err I work gen x.Had to laugh as an ex banker on here moralising to me using a exkeating term as well.
Any other slurs?
Reality does not fit the narrative being spun by fed labor they need to put the interests of their own citizens first.
Housing starts gone backwards under labor it was fed labor who via student masses and others have created this disaster.
Public knows it labor luvvies keep going as you cannot get them out of the country as they know labor and its pm are weak and the rental crisis and homeless crisis caused by failed Fed labor continues.
Behind in the polls and not taking accountability.Losers.
Two weeks of parliament now means more poll losses for labor.
Labor is in gov not opposition the labor government has failed and trashed its own citizens.
Good down ballot results for the Democratic Party:
https://youtu.be/Yq4GqWmoIAI?si=FVRrf0sgXFcTQ-_B
Dear grammatically challenged pied piper,
It was the Coalition, who were in power for ~10 years remember until just recently, that opened the floodgates of the universities to accept foreign students. An overhang from a poor policy, which also included facilitating large swathes of Temporary Protection Visa holders to maintain downward pressure on wages, that affected housing adversely in this country. Both issues, immigration and foreign student numbers, that you are trying to blame Labor for.
You can have your own opinions, pied piper, but you can’t have your own facts.
C@tmommasays:
Monday, November 18, 2024 at 9:46 am
Dear grammatically challenged pied piper,
It was the Coalition, who were in power for ~10 years remember until just recently, that opened the floodgates of the universities to accept foreign students. An overhang from a poor policy, which also included facilitating large swathes of Temporary Protection Visa holders to maintain downward pressure on wages, that affected housing adversely in this country.
______________________________________
Actually both major parties have been doing this when they have been in government.
This was Matt Gaetz’ first public words after being nominated as Trump’s AG:
Palm Beach, Florida: Former congressman Matt Gaetz greeted his admirers on Thursday night on the lawn outside Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort, freshly named as the president-elect’s pick to be the nation’s top law enforcement officer despite an outstanding House investigation into allegations that he engaged in sexual misconduct with a 17-year-old girl.
“A colonoscopy feels great,” he joked about the new attention.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/trump-won-the-celebrations-started-then-the-trouble-began-20241117-p5krb8.html
dave @ #71 Monday, November 18th, 2024 – 9:48 am
Labor haven’t facilitated large swathes of Temporary Protection Visa holders to come into the country in order to place downward pressure on wages.
Labor did allow foreign students into the country to study. What they didn’t do was open the floodgates to them via the mechanism of hacking public funding of universities to shreds. Which led to the universities coming to rely on the income from foreign students more than they should ever have had to do.
11 days till the Irish election
Fine Gael 23 (-1)
Independents 21 (-1)
Fianna Fail 20 (=)
Assorted Left:
Sinn Fein 18 (+2)
Social Democrats 6 (+1)
Greens 4 (=)
Labour 4 (-1)
People Before Profits 2 (-1)
Aontu 2 (=)
A dull campaign so far but some speculation on whether SF will repeat their performance from the last election, when there vote rose markedly in the last 2 weeks.
The Victorian Education Minister has to resign or be sacked.
FUBAR @ #75 Monday, November 18th, 2024 – 9:57 am
Says an ultra conservative guy from WA.
https://x.com/kossamaras/status/1857980405632348176, impacts by GWOT/ WW5 IVL, GFC/ Great Recession, pandemic/ inflation on working class, lobbyists/ courtiers/ acolytes for merchant kings and warlords.
You mean VCE fiasco where he destroyed year 12 exams for students by providing wrong curriculum?
See Dutton today says he is going to axe comm contribution to crazy suburbs rail tunnel in Socialist Victoria if elected.
Covid a pivot moment rise of Qld,WA as nsw and vic go backwards.
Despite my other criticisms of AUKUS this one is actually a bit harsh. Legislation will permit nuclear waste to be stored at the Adelaide ASC shipyard where nuclear submarines are to be built.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11-18/aukus-nuclear-waste-to-be-stored-adelaide-suburbs/104605640
The reason I say this criticism is harsh is that any shipyard that works on nuclear submarines needs to include facilities for safe storage of nuclear materials, including possibly nuclear waste, in case the work generates some. Any such material needs to be safely contained. So this is just a precaution if things are being done properly. Long term disposal of nuclear waste would still occur somewhere else.
But this is where the secrecy over AUKUS planning shoots itself in the foot. They have not announced where the long term storage would occur. Nor have they explained what separation and containment of nuclear activities in the ASC shipyard would be provided. So in the absence of information, critics assume the worst.
The VCE was a fiasco since its inception. Joan Kirner actually presided over a system where final exams were abolished and instead, people did take-home common assessment tasks (CATs) and scores were decided by schools, not central assessment boards. I well remember those days. It was one of the worst left-wing educational experiments ever that was only partially rectified by the Kennett Government.
Australia needs to nationalise its education system. No other nation on the planet has piecemeal curricula for each state with such small populations – it is egregiously inefficient. And there should be more emphasis on back to basics – arithmetic, grammar and civics. So many 12-year-olds still don’t know their six times tables. Less Milly-Molly-Mandy and wishy-washy-wokey subjects provided as an excuse for a free for all. And university entrance on merit, not special equity for those who identify as disadvantaged!
‘Socrates says:
Monday, November 18, 2024 at 10:11 am
Despite my other criticisms of AUKUS this one is actually a bit harsh. Legislation will permit nuclear waste to be stored at the Adelaide ASC shipyard where nuclear submarines are to be built.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11-18/aukus-nuclear-waste-to-be-stored-adelaide-suburbs/104605640
The reason I say this criticism is harsh is that any shipyard that works on nuclear submarines needs to include facilities for safe storage of nuclear materials, including possibly nuclear waste, in case the work generates some. Any such material needs to be safely contained. So this is just a precaution if things are being done properly. Long term disposal of nuclear waste would still occur somewhere else.
But this is where the secrecy over AUKUS planning shoots itself in the foot. They have not announced where the long term storage would occur. Nor have they explained what separation and containment of nuclear activities in the ASC shipyard would be provided. So in the absence of information, critics assume the worst.’
=======================
…. there is absolutely nothing that can be done about AUKUS criticism because the AUKUS critics are in reflexive mode.
The same ones who made thousands of criticisms of the JSFs are now totally silent on the JSFs. Why? They are the same promised planes. They have the same promised capabilities. They are the bedrock of our air sea gap defence. And they are by far and away the best in the world. The same people who delivered the JSF are the people who are going to deliver nuclear powered submarines.
AUKUS is a tiny part of the overall defence expenditure over the next 30 years.
All we get in the defence policy and equipment space is 100% criticism of AUKUS. Day in, day out.
It is unbalanced. The criticisms are generally political rather than technical. A lot of it is from the Greens who have criticized every single defence acquisition for 35 years. They don’t need technical reasons for this. They are ideologically opposed to ships, planes and tanks. Their Plan is not even a secret plan. It is an extreme plan: to leave Australia totally defenceless.
One of the seriously stupid criticisms is the length of time for the subs to be delivered. It turns out that all large platforms have a lead time of something like 10-20 years.
This is a criticism not of the present but of the past. The subs replacement program should have been initiated twenty years ago and they should be arriving now.
ScromoII says:
Monday, November 18, 2024 at 10:16 am
…
Australia needs to nationalise its education system.
…’
—————
True. Get ride of seven or eight education systems. Get rid of private schools. Nationalise them. Good point!
Albo and Labor are doing their best to kick Australians. All Australians.
By their secrecy in decision-making.
Labor can’t justify many of their decisions. So they just don’t tell the voters.
What a weak mob they are.
The latest is the siting of some AUKUS nuclear submarine waste from the US and UK at the Osborne facility near Semaphore, Adelaide. SA.
As well as at the Stirling Naval Base, Garden Island, near Rockingham, Perth.
I doubt if most Australians want nuclear submarines which will be used to attack China, our biggest trading partner. On whom our wealth is built.
Voters were never consulted about AUKUS at all.
But fearful of MSM media backlash Labor folded to Morrison’s failed plan.
The $368billion nuclear powered submarines are not to be used to defend Australia from any future enemy.
Another Labor myth.
Remember, they are part of Morrison’s racist agenda. Which Labor foolishly supported, and hence will lose Chinese ancestry voters.
As Morrison did and lost the May 2022 election.
In Labor MP’s Mark Butler’s electorate.
Time to vote out Butler.
And many of the warmongering Labor MPs.
No wonder Labor are on the nose. And this will grow as the election approaches.
Adelaide residents blindsided by decision to store AUKUS nuclear waste at submarine shipyards.
Adelaide residents blindsided by decision to store AUKUS nuclear waste at submarine shipyards – ABC News https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11-18/aukus-nuclear-waste-to-be-stored-adelaide-suburbs/104605640
Irene says:
Monday, November 18, 2024 at 10:29 am
Xi is doing his best to kick Chinese people. All Chinese people. Youth unemployment has been independently calculated to be above 40%.
Xi’s response? Go and work in the country.
The problem? There is NO work in the country that is not already being done.
Chinese students started riding their bicycles in large numbers.
Riding bicycles on any campus in China has now been banned.
BW
“AUKUS is a tiny part of the overall defence expenditure over the next 30 years.”
============================================================
That is not correct. At $368+B over 30 years, or over $12 billion per year, AUKUS is about 20% of Australia’s current $53 billion annual defence budget. When you realise that most of that goes on paying ADF personnel and maintenance of existing bases and equipment, less than 1/4 of the defence budget is used for new weapon acquisition. AUKUS will take the majority of the new capital acquisition component of the defence budget.
https://www.australiandefence.com.au/defence/budget-policy/2023-2024-defence-budget-at-first-glance
This is why AE and myself have critised the AUKUS choice of the UK/USA SSNs. They are the most expensive choice possible. I am not against the RAN getting SSNs. but selection of a much less expensive option would have done a lot less damage to our ability to afford other defence capabilities over coming decades.
Reducing discussion of a complex issue to “all the critics are wrong” and “therefore its OK for the government not to engage” is a cop out for not having had a credible public debate.
Soc
The defence budget has different components. That is not changing with AUKUS.
The defence budget is going to go up to $100 billion a year, so your calcs are seriously out of whack.
I am not saying that criticisms of AUKUS are not warranted.
Far from it.
What I am saying is that the criticism lacks balance. It is in some respects as automatic and as wrong-headed as the criticisms of the JSFs.
Boy, the nay-sayers, Labor haters and right-wing hacks have turned up with repetitive stuff this morning….
Not worth the time read, let alone respond to this dross.
Pity really as while this is a very democratic site, the number who come here to use a reasoned position are being swamped with the “I feel like it is, therefore it must be a fact” lot.
Good hunting for those who deal in facts rather than the above ratbag lot.
Boerwar
The future defence budget of $100 billion is a future promise that does not exist in current forward estimates. Albo and Marles are both hoping they will not have to deliver it in their time in office.
Please cite a date for when Marles says our Defence budget will reach $100 billion. And is that in 2024$ or include cost escalation?
There are very few militaries on the planet that spend more than around 30% of their budget on new acquisition. AUKUS will take a very a large of it for Australia.
Deesays:
Monday, November 18, 2024 at 9:22 am
Dave
This is no witch hunt!
Jones I hope will finally face justice.
What we’ve read this morning is the tip of the iceberg.
—————-
Children in their homes now are being sexually abused by their parents.
Or physically abused. Or live with horrific domestic violence.
But while all available funding goes for the wasteful AUKUS deal, Labor can’t find the $’s to help these children now.
As we can see with Jones, it is only decades later, after the damage, trauma, mental illness is done and lingers, the government and police finally acts.
Labor governments and people who vote for them should be ashamed. Labor is not interested in any serious way to protect many Australian children, or adults.
A failed government.
‘Socrates says:
Monday, November 18, 2024 at 10:46 am
Boerwar
The future defence budget of $100 billion is a future promise…’
=================
Of course it is. That does not invalidate my points at all.
‘Irene says:
Monday, November 18, 2024 at 10:50 am
Deesays:
Monday, November 18, 2024 at 9:22 am
Dave
This is no witch hunt!
Jones I hope will finally face justice.
What we’ve read this morning is the tip of the iceberg.
—————-
Children in their homes now are being sexually abused by their parents.
Or physically abused. Or live with horrific domestic violence.
But while all available funding goes for the wasteful AUKUS deal…’
=========================
A lie, of course, and an example of what I was positing upthread.
Xi spends money on the Chinese military and the Chinese Communist Party while 150 million Chinese are destitute.
From Berry Street, in Victoria, an organisation who help children in unsafe homes.
The Victorian Labor government and the Albanese Labor Federal government are not interested.
‘Mila was living in an unsafe home, surrounded by shocking violence and living in a constant state of fear.
Her mum and stepdad were often in contact with the police and couldn’t care for little Mila properly.
I’ve detailed some of the terrible experiences Mila went through in the letter below but please do not click this link if you prefer not to read such detail. You can read the letter here.
I know this is terribly shocking to read but this is not an uncommon experience for children that come through Berry Street’s doors. These things are really happening to children in Australia every day, and that’s why we need donations from generous supporters at Christmas.
As a Case Manager, I see firsthand the increase in family violence at Christmas time. And for kids who have been removed from unsafe homes, it’s incredibly stressful for both the parents and the kids to be apart on Christmas Day.
Mila and children like her have a lot to overcome, but it can be done with the right support.
Please donate today so we can help Mila and children just like her to overcome traumatic effects of the violence, abuse and neglect they’ve experienced.
Please donate. As both Federal and State Labor governments have no interest in many children in unsafe homes.
Soc
I should repeat what I have said many times. When (not if) our current main exports lose most of their value we will not be able to afford AUKUS.
Irene says:
Monday, November 18, 2024 at 11:03 am
….
The Victorian Labor government and the Albanese Labor Federal government are not interested.
…’
Another Irene Big Lie. The national DV plan has an allocation of $4.7 billion.
Xi allocates nothing for DV.
ScromoII says:
Monday, November 18, 2024 at 10:16 am
The VCE was a fiasco since its inception. Joan Kirner actually presided over a system where final exams were abolished and instead, people did take-home common assessment tasks (CATs) and scores were decided by schools, not central assessment boards. I well remember those days. It was one of the worst left-wing educational experiments ever that was only partially rectified by the Kennett Government.
Australia needs to nationalise its education system. No other nation on the planet has piecemeal curricula for each state
There is a Federal education system in the US. The states run their own systems. There is a Federal Department of Education. It has existed since 1867. Trump has promised to abolish it.
Reactionary notions/impulses are being gratified wherever we look. The result will be chaos.
ScromoII says:
Monday, November 18, 2024 at 10:16 am
The VCE was a fiasco since its inception. Joan Kirner actually presided over a system where final exams were abolished and instead, people did take-home common assessment tasks (CATs) and scores were decided by schools, not central assessment boards. I well remember those days. It was one of the worst left-wing educational experiments ever that was only partially rectified by the Kennett Government.
Australia needs to nationalise its education system. No other nation on the planet has piecemeal curricula for each state
There is a Federal education system in the US. The states run their own systems. There is a Federal Department of Education. It has existed since 1867. Trump has promised to abolish it.
Reactionary notions/impulses are being gratified wherever we look. The result will be chaos.
Tricotsays:
Monday, November 18, 2024 at 10:44 am
Boy, the nay-sayers, Labor haters and right-wing hacks have turned up with repetitive stuff this morning….
Not worth the time read, let alone respond to this dross.
Pity really as while this is a very democratic site, the number who come here to use a reasoned position are being swamped with the “I feel like it is, therefore it must be a fact” lot.
Good hunting for those who deal in facts rather than the above ratbag lot.
_____________________
Somebody got out of the wrong side of the bed this morning.
Are Albanese’s approval ratings fact or fiction ? I feel like they are fact.
‘Player One says:
Monday, November 18, 2024 at 9:05 am
Someone in the last thread wondered why there were so many people down on Albo, and wanted to know the reasons.
Well, today we have a perfect example …
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/nov/18/australia-accused-of-exporting-climate-destruction-on-tiny-pacific-neighbours-with-massive-gas-expansion-plans
Pacific governments at a UN climate summit are criticising Australia’s plans for a massive gas industry expansion in Western Australia, saying it could result in 125 times more greenhouse gas emissions than their island nations release in a year.
As the Cop29 summit in the Azerbaijani capital of Baku begins its second week, representatives from Vanuatu and Tuvalu have called on Australia to stop approving new fossil fuel developments, including a proposal to extend the life of Woodside’s North West Shelf gas facility until 2070.
Ralph Regenvanu, Vanuatu’s special envoy for climate change, said Australia was “not acting in good faith” when it stood alongside Pacific leaders on the global stage and promoted its climate credentials while continuing to approve coal and gas projects.
“As the world’s third largest fossil fuel exporter, the Australian government is exporting climate destruction overseas, including to Pacific nations like Vanuatu, who experience the most devastating impacts of the climate crisis, despite contributing the least,” he said. “This is climate injustice.”
Understand now?’
===================
Yep. Exporting it is evil. Importing it and burning it is good.
It is irrelevant that countries like Vanuata derive a major part of their national income by encouraging people to fly and emit CO2 emissions.
It is irrelevant that China, India, South Korea and Japan burn shed loads of coal, oil and gas.
Too easy!
Boerwar says:
Monday, November 18, 2024 at 11:06 am
Irene says:
Monday, November 18, 2024 at 11:03 am
….
The Victorian Labor government and the Albanese Labor Federal government are not interested.
…’
Another Irene Big Lie. The national DV plan has an allocation of $4.7 billion.
Xi allocates nothing for DV.
———————-
$368billion for unnecessary nuclear powered submarines. Compared to $4.7billion over 10 years.
Notice the great difference in taxpayer funding. Helping Australians in need at home is not Labor’s priority.
Obvious to anyone, pandering to Morrison’s racist AUKUS policy and the US need to being the world’s most powerful country, even as it supports genocide, is the priority for the Albanese government.
And condemned by Labor PM Keating, Labor Premier Carr, and ex Defence Minister Evans
BW, the expert. Knows nothing. But good at fibs.
Labor are shown up as failing many Australians. Fact.
‘Irene says:
Monday, November 18, 2024 at 11:15 am
Boerwar says:
Monday, November 18, 2024 at 11:06 am
Irene says:
Monday, November 18, 2024 at 11:03 am
….
The Victorian Labor government and the Albanese Labor Federal government are not interested.
…’
Another Irene Big Lie. The national DV plan has an allocation of $4.7 billion.
Xi allocates nothing for DV. But Xi is spending a huge amount on China’s military including nuclear submarines and nuclear air craft carriers.
Xi is Irene’s hero.
Just did a YouGov survey – it asked me the typical federal poll questions, along with questions on specific issues, including (among other things):
– The relationships with the US and China
– One thing that the government has done to help cost of living
– The proposed social media ban on under 16s, and duty of care for social media
Methinks that a YouGov poll might drop soon.
Scottsays:
Monday, November 18, 2024 at 6:21 am
The federal liberal/nats combined primary vote struggles to go into the low-mid 40% and would be disappointing the lib/nats propaganda media units.
_____________________
Low-mid 40% is it now? Up from your usual 40%
You will be at 50% before you know it.
Taylormadesays:
Monday, November 18, 2024 at 11:12 am
[Somebody got out of the wrong side of the bed this morning.
Are Albanese’s approval ratings fact or fiction ? I feel like they are fact.]
Very William Tell of you Taylor Maid!
Xi allocates nothing for DV. But Xi is spending a huge amount on China’s military including nuclear submarines and nuclear air craft carriers.
Xi is Irene’s hero.
___________
You are getting more and more pathetic Boerwar. Time to give it up I reckon and make the move into the nursing home.