| Projected 3CP | Projected 2CP | Win Probability |
8.00pm. All nine booths now in on the primary vote, and we won’t be getting declaration votes counted this evening, so all that remains to come is two outstanding two-candidate preferred results that are already known in outline. Labor has a 13% swing based on election day votes alone, and while it’s been shown that other vote types can behave quite differently, the Liberals would need an entirely implausible swing on both early votes and postals to get back into contention.
7.46pm. Seven out of nine booths now in on the primary vote, the latest both being in Hallett Cove, and both performing well in line with the remainder. They have also boosted the booth-matched turnout calculation that was at 60% in the previous update to 66%.
7.35pm. Antony’s caution seemingly informed by low turnout at the booths: by my reckoning, those that are in have recorded barely more than 60% what they did in 2022.
7.26pm. Antony Green on Twitter not quite willing to call it in the absence of early votes.
7.19pm. Now five booths in on the primary and two on two-party, the new results slightly moderating the projected Labor victory, but leaving the fact of it in doubt following a collapse in the Liberal primary vote.
7.01pm. With the second booth (Sheidow Park) even better for Labor than the first, my system is already calling it for Labor.
6.55pm. A big result for Labor at the first booth in, which is Seacliff South. A note of caution though — I have treated this as being the same as the Marino booth from 2022, which may not exactly be the case. Clearly the same decision has been made at the ABC.
5.30pm. Polls close in half an hour for South Australia’s Black by-election, at which the Liberals are defending a southern Adelaide seat on a margin of 2.7% after the spectacular demise of former party leader David Speirs. This will be my first run of an upgrade in my live results system that allows for multiple two-candidate outcomes in its probability estimates, rather than assuming two set candidates as it had done in the past. It can thus provide a three-way probability split where the situation is sufficiently complicated, although that situation is unable to arise here. More background on the by-elect
ion is available through my by-election guide.
Torchbearer reminds us that all politics is local!
Was it all just a backlash against a loose cannon ex-leader. I’m sure it’s here somewhere but when was the last time an SA seat went to the government in a by-election.
Up is down. Black is white.
Mabwm
8mths ago?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11-17/black-by-election-was-vote-of-confidence-labor-says
The hydrogen plant isn’t bipartisan and I’m not sure about Northern water.
New WCH is a total stuffup. They have already wasted hundreds of millions on it. And as for the $500m Proton Beam unit..
But Dio, doing big things is hard and has risks. There is a lot of vested interests trying to make it harder. It is especially hard when your in-house resources for doing such things have been gutted over the years, replaced with consultants and embedded private interests and stale (amongst other negative things I won’t say) top level bureaucracies.
But the Private sector isn’t immune from these and different problems..
I thought the nRAH was brave and worthwhile and something to be proud of – so long as the lessons were being learnt. Are you saying WCH is going the same way?
SA’s lower house now has 30 Labor members, 13 Liberals and four independents. Three of those independents were originally elected as Liberals. Two of them are currently involved in legal issues which may well end their political careers. The third is a minister in the inclusive Malinauskas Government (as was the fourth independent until he decided to step down).
They’re down to 6 seats within Adelaide now by my count?
Hartley, Morialta, Unley, Colton, Morphett, Bragg. Add Heysen if we count the Hills.
I’d tip them to hold no more than two of those at this rate.
I erred. Labor has 29 seats and independents five. The member for Mackillop also is an independent originally elected as a Liberal.
Interesting fact. You can drive from Flinders Chase to the Northern Territory Border and not leave a Labor seat.
Interesting fact. You can drive from Flinders Chase to the Northern Territory Border and not leave a Labor seat.
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Google Maps in SA need an “Avoid Lib Seats” function seeing as SA has no need for the “Avoid tolls” toggle.
Are there any Black electorate locals posting? I asked because, apart form the drug case against Speirs, I was wondering if there were any other local issues that might have influenced this result? I don’t know of any.
Assuming there are not, this is a great result for the Malinauskas government and a terrible result for the SA Liberal party. We are in the midst of a cost of living crisis, and the opposition is going backwards.
@socrates
Don’t think there’s anyone here, but someone posted on the TallyRoom comment section that:
“No Surprise to me. I am a voter in the seat of Black. David Speirs had a big personal following, and then the white substance scandal. He appeared in court and on all the news services on the eve of the election. Vincent Tazia appears slimmy, and I suspect he has been knifing Speirs in the back for the last 2 years. On top of that, one of the Liberals former members has recently been found guilty of fraudulently claiming on his allowances. No one but an idiot would think that currently, The Liberals are in a fit state to govern in South Australia. Tazia is trying to treat the electorate as idiots, and we are not Vincent!! Finally, the current Labor Government are performing quite well. The economy of the state is good, the unemployment is low, and they have attracted big events to the state and reinstated those which The Libs previously cancelled. The Libs in S.A. are in deep shit!”
(I think “slimmy” is a typo for “slimy”).
I’m in S.A. but not in Black. I believe the Libs candidate is the Mayor of Holdfast Bay, marginally North of the Black electorate and she bumped up the rates about 10% in one go recently. Just what I have “heard”. Not that that was the reason for the swing, the reason was that the S.A. Gov’t is stable and doing the job and the Libs are in terminal disarray and have been for yonks.
Expat, Rod
Thanks. I am an Adelaide bludger too and as an engineer-economist I would agree that overall Labor has the SA economy going about as well as possible in the current world climate. Just checking.
Lots of Councils are upping their rates. Burnside were going to do it by 15% iirc but pulled it back toward the 10% level.
Some trying to do it on the sly by hitting business with larger rate rises and keeping it the rise smaller for residents.
But dont get me started on Councils. Three levels of government could work but only if the local level shares resources between themselves (via the LGA or other methods) and with the next level up. Otherwise, they outsource and do everything their own way and get treated by the private sectors as the little fish they are.
SK
The nRAH was a disaster due to arrogance. We are paying a huge price for a monument to egos that were wrong and wouldn’t listen. Can you believe it didn’t have an ED triage desk? Completely delusional.
They have run out of money for the nWCH. They are listening but it’s pretty much Tickbox. Too much money blown already to go back to basics. It will be very shiny but will already be obsolete because they can’t afford any decent technology in it. They built a great children’s hospital in Brisbane. Update and copy it.
Diogenes glass is a quarter full. Yawn. Should run for Lib. pre-select.
Team Katich @ 7.63pm
Here, on the NSW Central Coast, the other nasty little accounting trick was to separate the Water Rates from the General Rates.
The Council was so inefficient that a State appointed administrator was installed to attempt to wind back the 100s of millions in debt, which previous CC Councils had created.
CC ratepayers were hit with a 15% per annum General Rate increase (which was labelled temporary) and in the last weeks of the Administrator’s term a similar hit to our Water Rates.
Councils have wised up to increasing Business Rates & Levies, there is more money to had from squeezing residential rate payers.
The irony of the CC situation is that we had our first Council election in 5 years and that the people responsible for this financial disaster have been re-elected and controll the current Council.
MaccaRB
Born and grew up on the CC. Gos council long been a source of frustration.
But since moving here I have been amazed at the reluctance for locals to learn from the failures and successes interstate. They certainly won’t copy as Dio suggests. And it isn’t just state pride, Councils are reluctant to share and combine with each other. A small state (and it’s councils) like this can’t do that. Drives a mate at the LGA cray cray. Three levels of gov isn’t working here. It could, but it isn’t.
you are far more involved in it Dio and I saw a little of the back of house disfunction when I was in the nRAH for my parotid lump surgery, but OMFG I was impressed. A great place to quickly recover and get home. And I didn’t mind the extended (but not too bad – a little disorganised) waiting in the pre and post surgery consults there.
Q: The nRAH was a disaster
Having worked in hospitals around the World, the new RAH is by miles the best Hospital I have ever been associated with. I could not imagine working anywhere else now.
It had teething problems like all enormous projects, but to use the word disaster is an insult- especially to the half of the world with no access to healthcare.
It performed magnificently through COVID- something a tarted up old RAH could never have done.
Torch, when I remember, I can still feel the breeze on my cheek from the openable window when I came to. And the short walks to open air green spaces. Now, it’s not like the walks in the botanic gardens at the old RAH, but that was a journey. At the nRAH, it is designed so each bed is a very short walk from healing spaces. I appreciated it immensely. And a single bed rooms also helped get me well in a short time – better sleep (parotid surgeries are delicate, long and complicated due to some important nerves).
A useful tweet:
“Antony Green – elections@AntonyGreenElec.·1h
2,500 Early votes added today for the Black by-election slightly better for the Liberal Party but the swing is still 13% and Labor’s two-party % is 60.2%.”
A very good result for the Malinauskus government.
2500 Declaration ballots have been counted today, going 58.9-41.1 to Labor.
I’ve belatedly updated my results — 12.0% swing on these early votes compared with 13.1% for election day (albeit that we only have declaration votes en bloc to compare them with).
https://pollbludger.net/sa2024by2/Results/HA.htm?s=Black
Thanks William.
I didn’t much follow this from start to finish. So I only learn today that Spiersy was a real estate mogul with multiple properties. Where’s Max Hyphen Blather when he’s needed?
Congratulations to the SA Labor government on the by-election win.
Qe really do have it good down here.
Around 5,500 ballots have been counted today and they’ve made the declaration votes slightly better for Labor than Election day, now at 61.2% (compared to 60.6%).
Thanks Kirsdarke, I noted that the pre-polls have swung Labor’s way, something of a first, maybe. Let’s hope that trend continues!
William. Time for an update. Big news here.
With new figures today Alex Dighton gained 50.7% of declaration votes compared with 46.5% from polling booths.
dighton
More votes counted. Alex Dighton dropped back slightly on Declaration Votes to 49.4%. Still an outstanding result however you look at it.
About another 2300 ballots counted today, which I assume includes a large amount of Postal votes has brought the 2pp on Declaration votes back down a bit to 59.5-40.5% to Labor.
Kirsdarke
My previous post was on first preference votes whilst yours is on two candidate preferred. As I said no matter how you look at it, it was a terrific result. Can’t be many more votes to be counted.
enjaybee @ #135 Wednesday, November 20th, 2024 – 7:03 pm
Yes, true. Probably only a few hundred votes left to count, since Antony Green mentioned that there were 10,099 declaration votes received as of Saturday, so given that 10,339 have been counted so far, all that’s left to count is whatever is remaining in the post.
Significant legislation has been introduced to the SA upper house regarding the process of elections, according to Antony Green.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/sa-black-by-election-2024/commentary
That seems to be pretty much that for Declaration votes. Only 168 ballots have been counted since Wednesday.
The final count looks like it will be held on Monday with a full distribution of preferences.