| Projected 3CP | Projected 2CP | Win Probability |
8.00pm. All nine booths now in on the primary vote, and we won’t be getting declaration votes counted this evening, so all that remains to come is two outstanding two-candidate preferred results that are already known in outline. Labor has a 13% swing based on election day votes alone, and while it’s been shown that other vote types can behave quite differently, the Liberals would need an entirely implausible swing on both early votes and postals to get back into contention.
7.46pm. Seven out of nine booths now in on the primary vote, the latest both being in Hallett Cove, and both performing well in line with the remainder. They have also boosted the booth-matched turnout calculation that was at 60% in the previous update to 66%.
7.35pm. Antony’s caution seemingly informed by low turnout at the booths: by my reckoning, those that are in have recorded barely more than 60% what they did in 2022.
7.26pm. Antony Green on Twitter not quite willing to call it in the absence of early votes.
7.19pm. Now five booths in on the primary and two on two-party, the new results slightly moderating the projected Labor victory, but leaving the fact of it in doubt following a collapse in the Liberal primary vote.
7.01pm. With the second booth (Sheidow Park) even better for Labor than the first, my system is already calling it for Labor.
6.55pm. A big result for Labor at the first booth in, which is Seacliff South. A note of caution though — I have treated this as being the same as the Marino booth from 2022, which may not exactly be the case. Clearly the same decision has been made at the ABC.
5.30pm. Polls close in half an hour for South Australia’s Black by-election, at which the Liberals are defending a southern Adelaide seat on a margin of 2.7% after the spectacular demise of former party leader David Speirs. This will be my first run of an upgrade in my live results system that allows for multiple two-candidate outcomes in its probability estimates, rather than assuming two set candidates as it had done in the past. It can thus provide a three-way probability split where the situation is sufficiently complicated, although that situation is unable to arise here. More background on the by-elect
ion is available through my by-election guide.
Thanks Jason, yes we had the abortion issue play out in our recent QLD state elections here as well.
I believe it may figure in our upcoming Federal election, although abortion is a state issue.
Come on Wat.
What branches of Labor currently meet your showy criteria?
Seems Vic 1999-2002 doesn’t even strictly count as one of them was Nat and the coalition agreement was on hold at that point.
Thankyou for the laughs, Diogenes. Totally clueless. Ramping has almost halved at this stage, of course and big medical buildings are going up all over the landscape. Ambulance stations, hospitals,TAFEs, major infra-structure, all sorts.
nadia88 says:
Saturday, November 16, 2024 at 8:41 pm
mj says:
Saturday, November 16, 2024 at 8:27 pm
Maybe Dutton doesn’t spend much time in SA, WA and Western Sydney for a reason. Think he’s a net negative for the Liberal brand in these areas.
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I couldn’t agree more mj, but if he wants to become PM, he has to venture out of QLD.
We’ve seen recent polls where the LNP has hit 40/41 on the primary, but it means nothing if that primary is all locked up in QLD, NT & outback NSW. I know some posters get excited about 40% LNP primaries, but it has to be tempered with “where is this vote falling”. Clearly it’s not in S.A.
We’ve seen polls in W.A. recently too where the LNP is not doing particularly well. So it’s not in W.A. either.
If the LNP is pulling high figures in QLD, it will mean nothing division wise as the LNP already holds most QLD seats (21 + KAP out of 30). All it will do is bolster existing margins.
I think Albo will be having a quiet beer or three tonight watching this result.
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Nadia you make some valid points here, I also get the impression that Dutton is going to do relatively better in rural and regional Australia, but that counts for little when they hold the vast majority of these seats. WA and SA have populations that are close to 80% concentrated in Perth and Adelaide, so poor results in these states and an aversion to visiting them suggest Dutton has a problem appealing to metro based voters and therefore an uphill battle in getting close to govt.
Quentin Rountree says:
Saturday, November 16, 2024 at 8:31 pm
N88 I don’t think that’s a smart idea to send Peter to those places if he’s not welcome there you know how you said a late Sunday night where you think Peter’s popularity yoli resonates and Queensland and other regional areas well I think you’re right
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Hi Quentin, and thanks for dropping by.
Peter can’t win a Federal election out of QLD for reasons I’ve mentioned (ie: the LNP has a lock on QLD, and can’t really increase their divisions there).
If he wants to become PM he’s got to travel around the whole country. Spend a bit of time on Perth & Adelaide talkbalk radio, visit western Sydney (camping out in Rooty Hill might be good), and maybe a cursory visit to Victoria. Not stand at the Murray River and wave at Victoria – he needs to go down to Melbourne, Geelong & Ballarat and spend some time there. A bit of 3AW and ABC774 talkback.
Hope all is going good for you in Roma!
Yeah I agree n88 Peters problem is he is popular in Queensland and in other regional areas where let’s be honest we’re probably already voting for the liberal party in any way so if anything I think people need to come down that labour going to lose the election I don’t think it’s going to be a massive win for Labor but a it’s going to be a minority government
Diogenes
Rubbish! The state Liberals have no idea who they are much less who they want to represent. The lunatics may have taken over the party Antic and his Trump style shtick only appeals to the base not for everyone.
Thanks William for SA by-election page, Nadia thanks for your enthusiasm and thanks to the remainder for a tidy discussion
Took me a second to realise the “Peter” you’re talking about is Dutton, not Malinauskas! I was like “Peter M. is popular in QLD?!”
SA debt has soared to more than 23k per person.
State debt 28 billion at 30/6 /2024 heading for 44 billion in 2028.
Ahhhh labor cannot stop spending.Anyone can spend spend spend.
N88 the problem is he ain’t going to go out of Queensland like say what you will about Anthony seem to go everywhere where Peter will just go to places where he feels safe it guess what on a Campaign Trail that ain’t gonna happen that’s why I think the liberals pen this next election is get as many seats they came back get rid of Peter and have someone that’s more appropriate for the next election
Sorry wet Tyler I didn’t know about Peter and Peter yeah Peter Liberal guy seeds the only be popular in in Queensland where he needs to be popular everywhere else which the same thing about that Western Australia poll about how the labour parties do really good over there yeah so I’m not be surprised if it’s Status Quo next election give or take a couple of seats off each of them because honestly if Labor does when they should think about replacing Anthony with someone else
After the SA Liberals stunt to try to sneak through an abortion ban in the Upper House this result is nothing less than what they deserve.
Yes they are a rabble. But they are also an unrepresentative, elitist, reactionary, far-right rabble that does not reflect the rest of the State.
The majority of Libs in lower house are in the “moderate” wing of Libs but clearly opposite in upper house. Hurn who is in moderate wing would likely have numbers after next election to be opposition leader.
Debt has to be payed back pretty boy Premier!
SA debt is lower than NSW and Vic. Qld and WA have mining royalties revenue so hardly a fair comparison. Debt in every state is going up as they rebuild after Morrison.
https://adepteconomics.com.au/australias-rapidly-climbing-state-debts/
The real debt bogeymen in recent Australian history are Hockey, Frydenberg and Morrison. The efforts of others pale in comparison.
Try harder Pied. SA state debt is about average cf other states.
Definitely a bot.
If I get a reply I’ll be very surprised!
Nonsense labor luvvies blowing and blowed out debt.No respect for future generations.Debt pigs .
28 to 44 billion in four years debt terrible.
pied piper
Yes the debt has to be paid back! I’m not sure if you walk around with your eyes shut but since I first arrived in 1992 Adelaide has grown and the current infrastructure can’t cope. What do you suggest odds and even number plate days?
goll says:
Saturday, November 16, 2024 at 9:00 pm
Thanks William for SA by-election page, Nadia thanks for your enthusiasm and thanks to the remainder for a tidy discussion
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Anytime goll. I’m more reliant on the South Australian posters and probably watch what they have to say. I probably get caught up a bit with “Federal implications”, which most posters don’t do.
Yep – the side threads are great. The recent QLD election thread we had was fantastic.
P.P. perhaps you can ask Morrison for advice on debt.
The SA Liberals are a basket case, and Malinaukas along with his mate in NSW Chris Minns are the standard bearers for Labor in the next few years.
Federal implications – Boothby looks solid for Labor, and Sturt is a seat Dutton needs to worry about.
Err port beat hawks on aflw just now.Damn.
Stop wasting money sa Labor.
Balance is good truth for Sa debt is better need balance on these blogs.As below .
Err it was a byelection caused by a alleged drug offender geez nothing to celebrate.
Hey Been There, gosh you bob up everywhere! Hope all’s well with you.
Per Pied – go back to Perth Pied Piper! You are not a South Australian (neither am I for that matter), but
I read what the South Aussie posters post. They obviously know better what’s going on, especially when there is an election on in their patch!
Pied, the problem with your side is that they are being taken over by religious loons at a time when religion is becoming less relevant to the majority.
The only way to reverse that trend is to split and start a new truly liberal party, that is one that follows the dictionary definition of liberal.
These religious freaks can’t help themselves, they let the cat out of the bag before elections and people don’t want them telling us how to live our lives.
15.4 billion for a SA tunnel project -ABC -what is it with these state labor nut jobs with massive debts for tunnels?SA or Vic anyone!
Err labor is all in on immigration state and feds and the answer is to go into massive debt to cater for population increase better idea turn the population Ponzi scheme off .Or show some guts and go to an election running on it instead of hiding mass population growth policies.
Go away
pied piper
Been down south road lately? It’s a fucking nightmare try driving a B double down it!
p.p., Jason…the election is over, folks! 🙂
Hi Nadia
Just floating around on a Saturday night.
Good to see you enjoying the polling.
As Cold Chisel would say….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lelsyP9qL2I
As another Adelaide poster (years since my last one), I’m not surprised at the result, but very much so at the size of the win.
Malinauskas is very popular, though. Just down to earth and gives the imoression of confident, but everyday, competence.
Against that, the SA Liberals have been a basket case for a long time, with a revolving leadership of nonentities.
Even the noxious Murdoch Advertiser calls him ‘Mali’ and seems to give him a fair run in amongst their line-up of shocker columnists.
Rod
It’s a fact! 1950’s road infrastructure isn’t fit for 2024 or much else for that matter!
With just 8% coverage aka union membership for the private sector-AFR- the public sector is being used by the political reps of the union movement the labor party to boost membership.
SA front and centre state wise do not care about debt let alone rental crisis with state gov all on on massive population increase.
Thanks Been There. Good old Saturday night
Anytime
Nadia – always great to join you in these threads.
Pied Piper – go away, go and gloat somewhere else with your fellow MAGA mates.
So how long will Vincent Tarzia last as state Liberal leader?
Sad to see the barely literate partisan cheerleading from all sides spreading to even the state by-election threads. Hard to find any sensible commentary these days.
Good to see you having a good night too Rebecca.
Enjoy our happiness!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HM_eb0vVo0k
Rod
I’ve got a sneaky suspicion I know more about ramping than you.
Have you spoken to ED doctors? Its no better.
Have you looked at the ratio of ambulance patients to waiting room patients over the last two months?
Have you been at interminable meetings about ramping over the last year?
Do you know that Sept and Oct are the quietest months in the hospitals?
Do you know that you aren’t even allowed to use the word “ramping” in the SA Health building? It’s “access block” or “delayed transfer of care”.
Do you know what has happened to the surgical waiting lists?
Do you know the billions of dollars put on the taxpayer credit card to help ramping?
Ramping isn’t fixed and in March will go right up again.
Assuming that the roughly 10,000 Declaration votes left to count break roughly 53-47 to Labor (I think that’s a fair estimate), then that would probably make Labor’s margin about 56-44, so a swing of about 9%.
For the Liberals to actually retain the seat they would need these Declaration votes to fall around 62-38 their way. So not likely happening.
D Sausage
The Libs are hopeless. Agree Boothby stays Labor despite LMF being useless. Flint is a shocker.
Dutton couldn’t care less about Sturt. It’s one seat.
Expect SA to be ignored in the Federal election. Might get a flyover.
Socrates
We are still second most after Victoria. Agree not far from the rest. But we are heavily dependent on higher education and that’s looking pretty iffy even with Albo, let alone Dutton.
Still we do have the subs!!
Honestly hard to comprehend that after the 2004 Federal election that the Liberals held 8/11 SA seats while Labor just held 3.
Now it’s Labor with 6/10, Libs with 3/10 and Sharkie with the last seat.
Doesn’t seem like it’s going to flip back to the Howard years any time soon.
This is Spiers parting gift for his own party releasing the footage of him. Antic will say it means they need to move further right. They are getting deservedly wiped at the next election.
Dio
Don’t get me wrong. I think the South Rd upgrade is a colossal waste of money. But SA under Malinauskas has done much better overall in terms of developing land to ensure there is not a shortage of residential land/spike in house prices.
The only states doing better have the advantage of mining royalties.
Education depends heavily on Federal policy so SA doesn’t have any control over that.
Wow!
Hmmmm. Yes, SALibs look like a rabble. The ALP have a charismatic leader – tall, fit, good looking, sporty, young family, youngishish yet mature and composed, projects strength, is out and about defending and selling with competent oration, and good at feeding the chickens. And has some passable policies. And a good female 2IC and a very capable head kicking sidekick.
But Dio is right, there are issues that will cause them probs come the state election. The Libs leader debacle may be only a short term negative with long term benefit and the hard right shift and religious involvement could go either way for them. They were losing the battle for the centre against Malinauskas (as they did v previous leaders) so a tack makes some sense.
Malinauskas made some big promises last election. The focus was Health and education and the economy. Deliberately neglecting some others (conservation for example). While he has done well on some matters and quite clever with the distractions he is a long way from fixing the two of the big issues and has not taken on SAHealth and Education Dept root and branch in trying to do so. I think the next election will test his well-presented abilities. But not nearly enough. Unless there is a scandal or big blunder that rattles his demeanour, his superficial advantages and general governing and leadership competence will prevail.
Katich
I haven’t met him but everyone who has says he’s a class act and nice guy. He certainly comes across that way.
Ashton Hurn can negate a lot of those advantages though.
Q:Might get a flyover…
Libs (Fed and state) promised a ‘flyover’ near me in Brighton (Boothby) about 6 years ago to fix a level crossing- and then reneged on it when they got elected.
Subsequently lost both Boothby and the state seat.
Re: SA state debt…
The huge projects here; NS Road, Womens and Childrens Hospital, Ambulance stations, hospital expansions are bi-partisan and non-controversial.
The $500 million National Indigenous Centre championed by the Libs is on hold.