| Projected 3CP | Projected 2CP | Win Probability |
8.00pm. All nine booths now in on the primary vote, and we won’t be getting declaration votes counted this evening, so all that remains to come is two outstanding two-candidate preferred results that are already known in outline. Labor has a 13% swing based on election day votes alone, and while it’s been shown that other vote types can behave quite differently, the Liberals would need an entirely implausible swing on both early votes and postals to get back into contention.
7.46pm. Seven out of nine booths now in on the primary vote, the latest both being in Hallett Cove, and both performing well in line with the remainder. They have also boosted the booth-matched turnout calculation that was at 60% in the previous update to 66%.
7.35pm. Antony’s caution seemingly informed by low turnout at the booths: by my reckoning, those that are in have recorded barely more than 60% what they did in 2022.
7.26pm. Antony Green on Twitter not quite willing to call it in the absence of early votes.
7.19pm. Now five booths in on the primary and two on two-party, the new results slightly moderating the projected Labor victory, but leaving the fact of it in doubt following a collapse in the Liberal primary vote.
7.01pm. With the second booth (Sheidow Park) even better for Labor than the first, my system is already calling it for Labor.
6.55pm. A big result for Labor at the first booth in, which is Seacliff South. A note of caution though — I have treated this as being the same as the Marino booth from 2022, which may not exactly be the case. Clearly the same decision has been made at the ABC.
5.30pm. Polls close in half an hour for South Australia’s Black by-election, at which the Liberals are defending a southern Adelaide seat on a margin of 2.7% after the spectacular demise of former party leader David Speirs. This will be my first run of an upgrade in my live results system that allows for multiple two-candidate outcomes in its probability estimates, rather than assuming two set candidates as it had done in the past. It can thus provide a three-way probability split where the situation is sufficiently complicated, although that situation is unable to arise here. More background on the by-elect
ion is available through my by-election guide.
Yep. Bugger it. I’m not from South Aussie, but I’m always up for a by-election.
Hopefully some of the South Australian’s might swing by for a bit of analysis. BK maybe.
Just thinking, abortion was raised as an issue during this campaign, and of course we’ve had the Trump win.
There are no state implications from my reading, as the parliament won’t change.
Federal implications – primary swing to the Libs could give Dutts a boost & Albo a scare.
Primary swing away – Dutts needs to calibrate.
Probably reading too much into it, but it is a good litmus test seat.
Have 2 by-elections in a row (Dunstan previously) seen the Gov’t take a seat off the opposition, I doubt it! But 2.7% may be a bridge too far for Labor.
My quick thoughts on this contest earlier from the main thread:
If I were to guess the results, I’ll say Liberal win with a small swing to the Liberal Party. But I don’t know. I haven’t really been following it that closely and I am just wildly guessing.
ndia88
I’ll be popping in a bit.
David Speirs was history after The Advertiser published pictures of a man, allegedly him, with lines of white powder on kitchen table. He said it was a deep fake.
Many questions remain unanswered. The Tiser has never revealed the source of the pictures,
Thanks BK. May be a seat to keep en eye on – what I’m watching is swings either way.
I’m probably more geared toward Fed implications, but I’ll wait to see what the Sth Oz posters have to say. Should be some numbers in soon.
Federally the North Areas are in Boothby with the Southern Areas in Kingston. If going by Federal Voting in 2022 would of been a pretty safe Labor Seat so Speirs would have had a significant Electoral Following in his Favor. Even the Upper House voting in last State Election shows electors gave Speirs a higher Vote with the Liberal and Labor Vote virtually equal with a large Green Vote which probably preferenced Labor.
Just a reminder that, due to SA’s silly laws regarding declaration votes – where they are not allowed to be counted tonight, unless it’s a clear win for one side tonight, we won’t know the results until next week.
From The Advertiser this morning:
“Senior Liberals have told The Advertiser that party members canvassing at pre-poll stations in Black are deeply concerned and expect to lose.
One Liberal figure, forecasting a loss in Black, said this would trigger another upheaval in state ranks, because MPs and members were deeply concerned about a repeat of the 2021 Western Australian election wipe-out, at which the Liberals were left with just two seats.”
FWIW – I’m predicting a swing to Labor north of 5%.
You might be right Sykesie. Labor straight out of the blocks with a 6% swing.
Mega swing against the Libs, but yes early days.
Mega swing against the Libs.
Nicolle Flint may be in trouble in Boothby, if there are any Federal implications.
Half of this seat is in Kingston Federally and the S.A. Libs are ALWAYS in turmoil. Oh, don’t do drugs.
Hello Nadia and BK , this will be very interesting. 2.7% swing but obviously there has been some stuff going on with the intriguingly named Mr David Spiers. I have always admired the quality of SAs Labor representatives- from Don Dunstan to Rann to Weatherall now Malinauskas . Maybe some some good ones on the liberal side as well, obviously Donny Chip and Steele Hall stand out. SA is very foreign turf for a SEQ person but I want to get down there one day and experience the terroir!!!
Damn, -20% swing against the Liberals in Sheidow Park (from Primary votes). Not much going on Federal implications there though since that’s a polling place in Kingston. Seacliff meanwhile is a Boothby one.
This looks to be a grim night for the SA Liberals. If the swing is this hard in 2026 they’ll probably be reduced to seats in the single digits.
Thank Dog for my birth-state. Walloping the Spivs since 1894.
It’s worth noting that the gap between election day and declaration votes (which includes pre-poll) grew greatly in Dunstan in the 2024 by-election as compared to the 2022 election, which if replicated here could mean very strong Labor swings in election day but much smaller or swings going the other way in pre-poll. Not that I don’t think the Liberals are in big trouble but I’d be cautious about projecting these swings on to pre-polls.
Looks like WB is minutes away from calling a flip.
47% ALP primary. Obviously Mr Malinauskas knows what he’s doing there.
A stonking primary.
Malinauskas is doing quite a reasonable job in SA and the Liberals have been providing nothing constructive. Spiers would have had a reasonable personl vote the last two times also.
As a SA, Peter Malinauskas is well liked and has no problem in raising SA’s profile.
I’m aware of two mates who have voted Liberal all their lives but voted ALP in 2022 and given what he has done to the state will do so again in 2026.
Expect this seat to fall to the ALP – the Liberal Party are inconsequential at this point and new leader hardly inspires.
Well, I was wrong…
Maybe that state poll from a month back suggesting that SA Labor was polling 60-40 might have actually had something to it…
Kirky
For as long as is the I can recall, this is the first time when I cannot name the leader of the opposition here in SA. Says a lot!
Federal implications?
I see the bulk of this state electorate falls within Boothby, with Hallet Cove & south falling within Kingston.
Can’t see Flint making any sort of comeback on these figures.
18% primary swing is quite a memo.
BK
Vincent Tarzia!
BK @ #21 Saturday, November 16th, 2024 – 7:28 pm
I struggle to do so as well and I was one one of the few people who was aware Iain Evans existed, back in the day…
Antony Green calls it for Labor. It’s all over!
Thanks Jason. We needed reminding. His profile and cut-through are negigible.
By-elections where the government has won the seat of an outgoing opposition leader, since WW2 or thereabouts:
Gascoyne, WA – 1951
Earlwood, NSW – 1978
Burwood, Vic – 1999
Dunstan, SA – 2024
Black, SA – 2024
It’s rare enough for oppositions to lose by-elections, rarer still to lose them to the government, and even rarer than that to lose the seat of their former leader (literally once a generation). The SA Libs have now managed to do this twice in one year with successive leaders.
*sad trombone*
I also see that there seems to be a small but notable increase in 1 Green 2 Liberal votes here. Although that probably can be explained by the sheer collapse of the Liberal primary vote.
Has Green called Qld for libs yet?
Aston Hurn will be biding her time until her newborn has grown up a bit, and so has the party, until she makes her move on the leadership of the Liberals.
Liberals will be making sure David Pisoni sticks around until the next election and doesn’t jump earlier like it’s been occasionally rumoured he wants to do.
Malinauskas is obviously still held in high regard which from afar seems justified. It will be interesting to see if Qld follows SA by installing a fairly moderate but not that impressive liberal leader, in for a term then tossing him out in the subsequent election.
Obviously, this lead is going to melt away a bit when declaration votes are counted (especially considering the low booth turnout) but it’s still a bad night for the Liberals, no matter which way you look at it.
17.8% swing against the Libs on primary, with 30% counted.
This is a flogging in my books.
Flint has zero prospects of gaining Boothby, and Rishworth is under no threat in Kingston.
4 or 5 % to Malinauskas might be regarded as so-so, but 17.8% against the Libs is a serious figure.
It’s looking like the recent Ipswich West by election in QLD.
I’ve mentioned on the main-thread several times that Dutton needs to spend some time in Western Sydney and W.A. Perhaps he needs to spend a bit of time in Adelaide’s southern suburbs too.
At the end of the day, the voters like to see things being done by a government.
Yes, ambulance ramping is an issue but the numbers appear to be reducing so given election is still another 15 months away this should become a non-issue.
I regularly see Peter M at Next Gen gym around 6-6.30 in the morning.
BK – Did the SA Upper House Abortion issue rate at all this past few weeks, or was it a side/non issue.
Are the S.A. state Libs regarded as a clown show, similiar to WA and Vic.
Maybe Dutton doesn’t spend much time in SA, WA and Western Sydney for a reason. Think he’s a net negative for the Liberal brand in these areas.
Nadia,
I just can’t see Dutton getting the seats at a Federal election to form majority government. He won’t gain any in SA, he literally can’t gain anymore in Qld. It all comes down to NSW, Vic and WA but once voters start focusing on his policies (assuming he announces them) I’m not sure he has much to offer.
And yes, the Liberals are bloody hopeless.
nadia88
I don’t think it featured in the Black by-election from what little I could see. It is possible though, that people are becoming concerned by the increased influence of ratbag religionists in the Liberal party.
nadia88,
I think it did play a role! The policy they wanted to change was the one they put up when they were in office 2 years ago!
N88 I don’t think that’s a smart idea to send Peter to those places if he’s not welcome there you know how you said a late Sunday night where you think Peter’s popularity yoli resonates and Queensland and other regional areas well I think you’re right
I think the reason Malinauskas and his government are doing well, compared to other branches of Labor (or incumbent governments in general), at least from my experience, is they’re not showy, the just get on with the job and, just as importantly, the demonstrate empathy with the cost of living and housing situation going on, and don’t seem out of touch or elitist.
(That and hopeless Opposition, of course.)
mj says:
Saturday, November 16, 2024 at 8:27 pm
Maybe Dutton doesn’t spend much time in SA, WA and Western Sydney for a reason. Think he’s a net negative for the Liberal brand in these areas.
============================
I couldn’t agree more mj, but if he wants to become PM, he has to venture out of QLD.
We’ve seen recent polls where the LNP has hit 40/41 on the primary, but it means nothing if that primary is all locked up in QLD, NT & outback NSW. I know some posters get excited about 40% LNP primaries, but it has to be tempered with “where is this vote falling”. Clearly it’s not in S.A.
We’ve seen polls in W.A. recently too where the LNP is not doing particularly well. So it’s not in W.A. either.
If the LNP is pulling high figures in QLD, it will mean nothing division wise as the LNP already holds most QLD seats (21 + KAP out of 30). All it will do is bolster existing margins.
I think Albo will be having a quiet beer or three tonight watching this result.
Wat Tyler, the S.A. Government builds Hospitals, Ambulance stations, employs paramedics, builds TAFEs, builds infra-structure, gets out into rural areas and does the same. And takes the people with them. The S.A. Libs are and have been forever, a hopeless rabble.
Antony Green reported earlier that there’s another 10k early and postal votes that can’t be counted under SA electoral laws until Monday, so looks like turnout will be over 80% which is pretty good for a by-election.
Not much surprise. With right wing clowns like Alex Antic seen to be calling the shots in SA, most people will be wary of Libs.
Opposition losing 2 by-elections to a government in the same term:
Coalition (NSW) 1941-1944
Coalition (Vic) 1999-2002
LIBERAL (SA) 2022-2026
So the only previous case of this happening where the state and federal governments were the same was in the middle of World War 2 and that was only the junior coalition partner losing them (Country Party).
Kirky
Ramping will not be a non-issue. It will be at least double what it was when Labor took over.
A popular local member who gets outed seemingly taking cocaine by his own side and the nutters fighting to take over the party trump that though.
Ashton Hurn won’t challenge. The Libs will lose the next election. She will take over after that and win in 6 years. Mali is popular but can only run sporting events. And his team is hopeless.
Mt Gambier by-election soon?