DemosAU brings us a poll of 948 respondents in Western Australia, conducted from October 30 to November 4, showing voting intention both federally and for a state election that will be held on March 8 unless a federal election clashes with it. On the latter count, the poll credits state Labor with a two-party lead of 56-44, suggesting a swing against it of 14% from the extraordinary result of 2021. The primary votes are Labor 41%, Liberal 34%, Nationals 4%, Greens 12% and others 9%, with Roger Cook leading Liberal leader Libby Mettam 42-29 as preferred premier.
The federal component of the poll has Labor leading 52-48, a swing against it of 3% compared with 2022, from primary votes of Labor 34%, Coalition 38%, Greens 14%, One Nation 6% and others 8%. Anthony Albanese leads Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister by 40% to 33%. The linked reports for both polls feature breakdowns by gender, age, education, residential tenure and personal income.
Another federal voting intention poll from the state, by RedBridge Group, shows Labor travelling remarkably well with a two-party lead of 54.5-45.5. The poll is related in a report by Katina Curtis of The West Australian, whose Labor sources say the result is consistent with the party’s internal polling.
Further developments relating to the state election:
• Rhys Williams, who has served as the local mayor since 2017, has been confirmed as Labor’s new candidate for Mandurah after David Templeman, the member since 2001, announced his retirement in September. The Liberal Party’s initial nominee for the seat, James Hall, withdrew last month over social media posts from 2017 stating he was “proud to be white”.
• Michelle Roberts has announced she will retire at the election after a parliamentary career going back to 1994, all but the first two years of which have been spent as member for Midland. The West Australian reports her likely successor as Labor candidate is Stephen Catania, a former CFMEU lawyer now with Eureka Lawyers. Catania is the father of Nick Catania and brother of Vince Catania, both former MPs.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of WA politics. The open thread for general discussion is here.
Abc quotes Cook this morning that the state election stays at March 8.
Looks like Basil is not getting dropped into leadership either.Maybe open Sunday shops an hour earlier at 10 am might be a winning policy as well.
Impressive numbers for the ALP.
It will be interesting to see how the Union campaigns against the big miners plays out and impacts the numbers.
Despite the banging on the the West about Albanese’s comings and goings, it is clear Libby M is for the chopping block if the West’s owner gets his way. Come in Basil!
It is likely the vote will return to more normal profiles than has been the case around Covid time.
Interesting how the Federal vote for Labor is holding up surprisingly well despite the West’s almost daily attack on Albanese.
The argy-bargy about dates of elections – WA and Federal – is a totally confected in the mind of the West’s editor and his boss.
Nobody in WA gives a toss about the dates and given the West newspaper in pulp form is now read mainly by the old, country folk and dyed-in-the-wool Liberal voters, its political influence is much diminished from former times.
Tricot
The West Australian’s pot shot at Mettam today points out it is four months to the election, exactly the point in the last cycle that Lisa Harvey jumped ship and Zac Kirkup took over.
Not sure there is anybody in the parliament to replace her now. Surely they not suggesting Zempilas could be leader when he’s not elected ?
And it finishes by saying the liberals need to win 10 seats back for her to stay as leader.
They may well go close to that but she is toast regardless.
Rossmcg …
Yes, a good take. Nothing would surprise me regarding Zempilas. Not so long ago some were claiming he “had no interest in politics”. So much for that.
If should be Labor is returned for a further four years, I just wonder if the West’s pin-up boy could stomach life in Opposition. Already the Libs are kind of looking towards 2029 but who is to say Labor could not win again? I expect Cook to go sometime in the next four years and Rita likely to take over. (As much as one can speculate.)
This piece on the Nine papers’ site, WA Today, looks at the treatment Mettam gets in QT.
It aint pretty.
Zempilas as leader will face the same.
https://www.watoday.com.au/politics/western-australia/labor-s-wall-of-rabid-mps-regularly-maul-the-opposition-but-is-it-bloodlust-or-fair-game-20241111-p5kprl.html
I’d be comparing results of the 2017 election not the 2021 election which was more hero worshipping for COVID that anything else.
A….
Think you will find the opinion is that 2017 is a more normal comparison. McGowan had, what was considered in those days, a thumping win in any event.
Let’s not forget that the 2021 election also had the Liberals siding with Palmer and Morrison over McGowan. And also the then leader of the Liberals basically ran a campaign of “we’re going to lose, so vote for us or the ALP will win all of the seats”
I’m not sure Bazil is a great move either but it surely can’t be worse for the Libs than last time. I guess anything will look like a good result in comparison
I would imagine if the result is close to 2017 where it was 41-13 and 5 Nats the Libs will declare it a moral victory.
The average pre 2017 marginal seat has a alp
Majority of 20% on the last election figures(wa)
I’d agree the next WA election result will probably see a big swing back to the Liberals but still a 2017 type result with a thumping Labor majority. There’s no mood for a change of state govt here.
Liberal heartland seats that Labor would not in their wildest dreams have expected to win in normal times surely must go back to the Liberals, seats like Churchlands and Nedlands are near certainties to go back unless there is a competitive independent standing. The current member for Nedlands will not recontest, she’s been parachuted to a safe upper house seat.
The next rundown of seats are not as certain Liberal but nonetheless you’d expect the Liberals to gain if they’re semi-competitive. They are Carine, Bateman, Riverton, South Perth, Scarborough, Geraldton, Kalgoorlie, Dawesville and Darling Range. Warren-Blackwood would go back to the Nationals. They are way too far behind to gain much else.
does the riverton mla Dr Jags live in the electorate yet or is he still in Mosman Park
@ mj
Agree your first 2 and Warren- Blackwood
The rest will be on a seat by seat basis. With the libs favoured in the urban seats.
I’ll be curious about how the new WA Legislative Council pans out.
On these numbers, there’ll be roughly 16 Labor, 13 Liberals, 5 Greens, 2 Nationals and 1 Other (probably One Nation or Legalise Cannabis), give or take a few cases where the preferences go. Labor-Greens should hold a comfortable majority either way, given it looks like they’ll get at least the 19 out of 37 seats required.
It’s 2.63% for a quota in the new system.
At 2 Lib members following 2021, the centre right intelligencia of Perth had an opportunity to go hard and build a new WA specific party, potential built around Basil and other soft conservative figures without the baggage of “the clan”.
Could have been a Twiggy project, who is pro mining/renewables/indigenous workforce without the “2 dollars a day” Gina stuff
Might be a bit late now, but would have been fun seeing a small “c” counter invasion of the East coast as a payback for Clive’s attempt.
Actually, that is a really long winded way of saying that a bankrolled teals’ish party would be ripe for WA.
Apart from the fact the lay Liberal Party remains intact and is what produces candidates, your claim about a WA being ripe for a tealish party is not supported by the evidence. Chaney hangs on by the thinnest of margins. I have put up multiple offers of a significant wager against her retaining Curtin, but alas, no takers. I fully expect that, despite her Road to Dalwallinu conversion on Live Sheep Export support – she is done. Stick a fork in her and turn her over. The Teal Party in WA will die with her election loss.
I think that the polling in WA is suffering the same issue through the western world and understating the conservative vote by a percent or two – that’s just based on the continual misses over recent history.
I know the seat of Curtin well, grew up in Nedlands. It’s not impossible for the Liberals but doubt Chaney is going to lose the seat, she should get a sophomore surge and Dutton as a thoughtless, headkicker type leader is generally considered pretty toxic in small l liberal, now teal seats like this. If anything her backflip on sheep exports will hurt her chances, who the hell cares enough to fervently support this issue in an inner urban seat, it’s not a dealbreaker for anyone other than maybe some opponents who may move to the Greens or Labor though she can expect most of their preferences back anyway if this is the case.
I now live in Swan and for similar reasons I can’t see the Liberals winning it back this election even though it’s on paper a marginal. The Liberal leaning half of the seat is similar to the rest of the western suburbs in political outlook and are not going to return to the Liberals in sufficient numbers to gain the seat back. If the Liberals are going to win the next Fed election they need to flip many seats in the outer suburbs/mortgage belt and try and paint Labor as a party of the inner city, educated and out of touch elite.
“I’d be comparing results of the 2017 election”
hmmm …….. 2017 was a disaster for the W.A. Libs and really set the scene for their near extinction event in 2021. 🙂 Libs will get back a lot of seats they lost in 21 just on it not being during covid, but yup, ALP to retain govt. Then the fun with opportunistic self interested blow ins like Basil starts.
I think he definitely see’s himself as Lib opposition leader after the election. But they aint never getting their upper house gerrymander back. 🙂
Kirsdarke: there’ll be a lot more minor / microparties in the upper house, that’s for sure. 2% is probably enough for a seat, and any of Legalise Cannabis, Aus Christians, Shooters, One Nation and Animal Justice are capable of getting that. The crossbench will probably be one seat each for most of that lot, along with two Nats and four Greens. (I’m not sure the Greens will get a fifth seat: that’s 13.2%, and any more than 1% less than that would see their preferences going to AJP or LC rather than the other way around.)
In 2021, the new system would probably have spat out 23 ALP, 7 Lib, 2 Grn and one each for the Nats, LC, Christians, Shooters and One Nation.
In the more normal 2017 (also a landslide), something like 15 ALP, 10 Lib, 3 Grn,3 ON, 2 Nats, one each for SFF, Christians, LDP and AJP (that last seat getting won with less than half a quota). That would be a left-wing majority, although smaller than I would’ve thought.
2013 (Lib landslide): 18 Lib, 12 ALP, 3 Grn, 2 Nat, 1 AUC, 1 SFF. That would’ve placed the Libs in the interesting position of not needing the Nats for a majority in either house.
2008 (indecisive, Lib govt formed): 15 Lib, 14 ALP, 4 Grn, 2 Nat, 1 FF, 1 CDP. 19-18 majority for the right.
2005 (ALP win): 17 ALP, 14 Lib, 3 Grn, 1 each Nat / CDP / FF.
2001 (ALP win): 14 ALP, 13 Lib, 4 ON, 3 Grn, 1 Democrats (remember them?), 1 Nat, 1 CDP. That would’ve been like herding cats.
Obviously that’s looking through the wrong end of the telescope – if the upper house was proportional back then, the Christian parties would’ve gotten established a lot earlier, and Nick Goiran might have stayed in the CDP with his parents. Having a viable religious conservative party would mean less entryism into the Libs (ie: the Clan). And obviously the Nats would’ve been nearly irrelevant, never getting more than two seats.
Did anyone else notice Sophia Moermond quit Legalise Cannabis back in May? Turns out she’s anti-vax, anti-trans and anti-windfarms… sounds like a real piece of work. She’s running as an independent, along with Louise Kingston (ex-Nats) and Wilson Tucker (the Daylight Saving Party got deregistered, but he might get more than 98 votes this time 😛 ).
Re the Teal bet Fubar, someone was willing to take you up on it as long as the winnings went into charity. That you knocked this back, and your claim that nobody has taken you up on your bet says something I would think. First you want the bet on your terms, then conveniently overlook that the claim nobody has taken you up on this post. Come on soldier, you can do better than this as an ex-Duntroon man.
Tricot says:
Friday, November 15, 2024 at 11:14 am
I put up the wager to be with me, not a charity. I give sufficient to charities already.
I won’t wager you FUBAR as I don’t believe Chaney can hold on.
Hammond pulled 41% last time, and most likely the Libs will increase their primary this time (I can’t see them going further backwards). Chaney made a blooper attacking the state police in late June over their “handling of domestic violence”. State policing is a state issue, not a Federal issue.
WA has a Police Minister – Mr Papalia – who can deal with “state police culture issues”.
To me it looks like she was looking for a target. ie: a raison d’être.
Perhaps the police were an easy distraction after the live export backflip mess.
She needed a “conviction distraction”, and any desperate politician can always find fault with the police.
I think she’s gone.
How much were we talking, FUBAR? I may be willing to take you up on that bet.
FUBAR: I would happily take you up on that bet if the election was tomorrow. As it stands, I’ll wait until we are closer to the election date. Not because I think it is likely that things change, but because I’d want to use my money on other contests. Unless you’re offering crazy odds.
$200. No odds. Straight up.
It all depends on Mr Bowe agreeing to exchange our personal details to enable a transaction to occur. No
Idea if he is open to that.
I don’t believe that would be necessary. If we’re still talking about bets when seat contests open up on Betfair then it isn’t difficult to match bets there.
FUBAR, I’ll take that bet.
William, you have my permission to pass on my email to FUBAR. (Assuming you wish to get involved in this, that is. Fair enough if you do not.)
The religious fanatics have destroyed the Liberals prospects in SA. Expect a similar outcome here.
I can’t penetrate The West Australian’s paywall but there are on online teasers about Basil and Mettam and leadership.
He may or may not be saying he doesn’t want to be leader.
But he also once said he had no interest in politics and would be Perth Lord Mayor for four years.
What a circus.
If history is a guide Mettam might be gone by next weekend.
Rossmcg, it’s a bit hard to have a spill with only two MLA’s plus a Nat who switched to the Libs.
Granny
The real power is in the upper house, where I think there are seven Libs. Goiran and Collier pull the strings and if they decide Libby is going, she’s going.
Asha says:
Sunday, November 17, 2024 at 3:05 am
Accepted.
To avoid any misunderstanding:
If Chaney loses the seat of Curtin you owe me $200.
If Chaney wins and retains the seat I owe you $200.
FUBAR:
Got it.