US election late counting

Democrats are still a slight chance to gain control of the House despite a popular vote deficit. Also covered: upcoming Irish and German elections.

12:13pm Sunday The Dem has taken the lead in California’s 45th by just 0.01%. But with late counting favouring the Dem heavily, he should increase his lead. I think this will be my last post on this thread.

1:47pm Saturday Small vote numbers today further reduced the Rep’s lead in California’s 45th to just 0.02%, while the Rep’s lead slightly increased to 1.1% in the 13th, but Dem-favouring counties in that district are undercounted. Overall, Reps lead in called races by 218-212. In the remaining five, Dems should win Ohio’s ninth and California’s 45th, the Reps should win Iowa’s first and Alaska’s only, with California’s 13th still undecided.

2:04pm Friday November 15 Today’s counting in California’s 13th broke heavily to the Dem, with the Rep lead reduced from 2.4% to 1.0% with 84% in. In the 45th, few votes were counted today, with the Rep holding a 0.08% lead with 93% in. If Reps lose both these seats, their House margin would be 220-215.

4:53pm The Reps have hit the 218 called seats needed for a House majority. But Trump wants three House Reps to serve in his administration, and Rep Matt Gaetz has already resigned, so there’ll need to be three by-elections in Rep-held seats. In most states, by-elections require a primary at which major party candidates are selected before the by-election itself, so it takes months to elect a new member.

12:36pm Thursday Reps lead in called House seats by 217-208. But one Rep seat lead in California is close to flipping to a Dem lead, with the Rep lead falling from 4% to 0.12% and 7% still remaining to be counted. Reps are likely to win all other seats they lead in, for a 221-214 majority.

2:56pm Wednesday The Reps lead in called House races by 216-207, with 218 needed for a majority. In Californian counting today, the 41st moved to the Dems, with Reps now only ahead by 0.8% after they led by 4% after election night. But other seats have the Reps holding steady. The Reps are virtually certain to win a House majority.

4:06pm Tuesday CNN has called the Arizona Senate contest for the Dem, giving the Reps a 52-47 lead. The Reps are very likely to win the last undecided Senate seat in Pennsylvania, where they have a 0.5% lead with 98% in.

In the House, Reps have a 214-205 lead in called races and an overall 222-213 lead. However, two Californian seats with narrow Rep leads moved to Dems in counting today. If Dems win both these seats, Reps would win the House by just a 220-215 margin.

2:26pm Monday The Dem will win the Arizona Senate contest, where he leads by 50.0-47.8 with 91% in. There hasn’t been much counting for the House today as it’s Sunday US time. Reps lead in called seats by 214-203, and they maintain a 222-213 overall lead.

In my Conversation article today on Newspoll, I said that Kamala Harris should have emphasised health care more, particularly Trump’s nearly successful attempt to repeal Obamacare in his first term.

3:43pm Sunday CNN has called Arizona for Trump, so he officially wins the Electoral College by 312 to 226. In the Arizona Senate, the Dem has increased his lead to 49.7-48.2 with 86% in. In the House, Reps lead in called races by 213-202. Today, Dems gained a lead in a Calif seat that Reps had previously led in, so Reps now lead in 222 seats to 213 for Dems. There are three more seats in Calif with current Rep leads by about 3%, which could be won by Dems.

4:42pm Saturday: CNN has called the Nevada Senate contest for the Democrat. In Arizona, the Dem leads by 49.5-48.4 with 82% in. In the House, Reps lead in called seats by 212-200. While a Californian seat has flipped to a Dem lead since yesterday, an Arizonan seat has flipped to a Rep lead. Reps still lead the House by 223-212.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

This post will be used to follow late counting in the US election.  Donald Trump will win the last uncalled state in Arizona, and win 312 electoral votes to 226 for Kamala Harris.  Trump leads the national popular vote by 50.7-47.7, with many more votes outstanding in Democratic strongholds like California.  Before The New York Times Needle was turned off, its forecast was for Trump to win the popular vote by 1.5%.

You can read my latest on the big swings to Trump among Hispanics and young men at The Conversation.  The Cook Political Report’s popular vote tracker shows the swings since 2020 by each state.  Racially diverse states had the biggest swings to Trump.

In the Senate, Republicans have a 52-45 lead over Democrats (including allied independents) after gaining Ohio, Montana and West Virginia.  Democrats have won or are leading in four of the five presidential swing states that held Senate elections (Pennsylvania the exception).  If Republicans win the Senate by 53-47, Democrats could hope to recover it in 2026, when Republicans will be defending 21 of the 34 seats up.

Of the remaining contests, Republicans hold a 0.5% lead in Pennsylvania with 98% in, and Democrats hold a 1.3% lead in Nevada with 96% in.  Arizona is the most interesting with Democrats holding a 1.7% lead with 74% in.

In the House of Representatives, Republicans lead Democrats in called races by 211 seats to 199.  If Republicans win all the seats the currently lead in, they will win the House by 223-212.  However, there are five seats Republicans lead by four points or less in California, where there is much late counting.  So far California’s late counting has been good for Democrats.

If Democrats win the House or even get close, it would be despite a popular vote deficit in the Cook Political Report tracker of 51.6-46.9.  While that gap will close on late counting, Republicans should still win by about 3%.

Irish election: November 29

Ireland uses the Hare-Clark proportional system that is used in Australia for Tasmanian and ACT elections.  At this election there will be 174 members elected in 43 multi-member electorates.  This election was called before it was due in March 2025.

Ireland has been governed for most of its history by one of two rival conservative parties: Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.  After the 2020 election, these two parties formed a coalition government for the first time in Ireland’s history, with the Greens also included.  The left-wing Sinn Féin had won the most votes in 2020 with 24.5%, the first time in almost a century that neither FG nor FF had won the most votes.

In Irish polls, SF support had surged to a peak of about 35% in May 2022, but since November 3023, SF support has slumped back to about 18%, behind both FF and FG.  This election is likely to return the two conservative parties to a coalition government.

Left-wing parties to be routed at likely March German election

After the last federal German election in September 2021, a governing coalition was formed by the centre-left Social Democrats, the Greens and the pro-business Free Democrats.  However, this government has now collapsed, and it’s likely the next German election will be held in March 2025, rather than September.

German polls have been terrible for the governing parties for a long time, and the conservative Christian Democrats are virtually certain to win the most seats.  But they are unlikely to be able to form a coalition easily, given their opposition to dealing with the far-right Alternative for Germany.

469 comments on “US election late counting”

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  1. Democracy Sausage @ #400 Tuesday, November 12th, 2024 – 9:47 pm

    The Democrats have gained another house seat in California from the Republicans, CA27.
    The new MP is George Whitesides, a former NASA executive, really smart bloke in other words.

    Smart to get out before MElon Musk does his ‘Efficiency Dividend’ schtick (same same as the Coalition but with a slightly different name that I cannot remember) and cans NASA and replaces it 100% with Space X.

  2. Republicans are projected to keep control of the House of Representatives, handing the party total control of Washington with President-elect Trump back in the White House in January.

    Decision Desk HQ projected the GOP would hold the House by winning its 218th seat on Monday, the number needed for a majority in the lower chamber.

    The result is a major win for Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who skyrocketed up from obscurity to lead the House GOP not only legislatively, but also in a large role in its campaign infrastructure.

    Republicans saved some of their most vulnerable incumbents, like Reps. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) and David Valadao (R-Calif.), while defeating several vulnerable Democratic incumbents. State Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R-Pa.) unseated Rep. Susan Wild (D-Pa.), while businessman Rob Bresnahan defeated Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Pa.).

    Those results made up for some GOP losses. Three first-term New York Republicans — Reps. Anthony D’Esposito, Marc Molinaro and Brandon Williams — lost their reelection bids, as did Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.).

    https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/4974235-house-republicans-control-majority/

  4. Nicholas says:
    Tuesday, November 12, 2024 at 1:04 pm

    When your grandchildren learn about this genocide at school in years to come, what will you say to them when they ask you how it happened?

    I will say that this conflict arose because it suited Netanyahu and the Right in Israel, Hamas and Iran. The violence would cease immediately if they chose to end it. There are two losers in this war: Israel and the civilian population of Gaza. The winners are Iran, Netanyahu and Hamas.

    Netanyahu has been encouraged by Trump, as has Putin. We can say that Trump is also a winner from these wars. To the extent that conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine have harmed the Democratic Party in the US Trump has made excess profits.

    The Reactionaries in these places – the US, Russia, Iran, Gaza and Israel – choose war because they make political and/or financial gains from them.

    That’s the guts of it. People are expendable. From the viewpoint of Hamas, the greater the suffering of the people of Gaza the better for Hamas. The same can be said of Netanyahu. The more conspicuous the deaths, the better. This is tyranny. This the perversion of the reactionaries.

  5. Nate Silver@NateSilver538
    ·
    5h
    Updated estimate:
    Harris 75.7m votes (48.5%)
    Trump 77.9m votes (49.9%)
    other 2.6m votes (1.6%)

    Total turnout 156.1m votes (vs 158.6m in 2020)
    Trump margin +1.4%
    Tipping-point state: PA (Trump +2.0%)

  7. My point exactly, Stooge. Cynical manipulative politics played in the run-up to an American Presidential election. Because I can also see the hand of Putin behind Iran. And so now we have the Tyrants Club of Putin, the Mullahs of Iran and their proxies Hamas and Hezbollah, Netanyahu of Israel, Orban of Hungary, Assad of Syria and Xi of China. And the newest member, Trump of America.

    The little people are merely pawns in their game. To which point I will note that the Gazan Ministry of Health (and propaganda) never releases how many men have died, just women and children. Hmm.

  10. Simon Rosenberg’s thoughts:

    What Happened And What Comes Next –
    As I wrote yesterday, the way I’m going to approach the vital discussion we need to have is by 1) posting short sketches and fragments here each day with a goal of a more comprehensive take in a few weeks 2) holding a robust video discussion series with folks in the game to get their thoughts and insights 3) keep asking a series of questions of them and others. I am not in a rush here, and nor should we be. What’s important is that we have a well-informed and respectful conversation, together, about what happened and what comes next over the next few months. We are far more likely to end up in a smart place if we take our time and not rush to judgment.

    Re-Imagining The The Roles Of The DNC, Elected Officials And Grassroots Dems In The Info Wars –
    As we’ve discussed since the very first day of Hopium, our family has to learn how to be loud not just in our muscular campaigns but every day, 24/7/365. We need to work together to close what I call the loudness gap with the right. We’ve talked here about the need to grow pro-democracy media organizations like Crooked Media, COURIER Newsroom, MeidasTouch, Resolute Square, Deep State Radio and fellow Substackers like Robert Hubbell, Heather Cox Richardson and Timothy Snyder. We’ve talked about the role we all have to play in working our networks each day, getting louder, and becoming more accomplished information warriors for our democracy. Today, I want to talk another piece of a new loudness strategy – the roles of our party committees and elected officials.

    First, the DNC and other state parties must become more like MeidasTouch. The DNC has to become a central communications hub of the new opposition, and produce high quality, modern, social and YouTube content everyday both advancing our ideas and leaders, and challenging theirs. As some have mentioned here, elements of the social-based KamalaHQ should be brought into the DNC, and large gatherings of Dems along the lines of White Dudes For Harris should become a regular thing. Our party infrastructure simply has to take on a greater comms responsibility in the 20 months outside of the last 4 months of elections every two years, and large donors in our family should support this strategic evolution.

    Next, the relationship between Democrats across the country and our big campaigns and party committees must change. The millions of us who gave and volunteered need to be treated like partners in the fight not just donors to the cause. There has to be a more respectful information based relationship between us, where our campaigns and parties start treating us not only like ATMs but also like proud patriots, information warriors and willing amplifiers. In this networked age we must see the 4-5-6m people who gave this past cycle as a vast information network to be deployed to counter the right’s information superiority. Imagine the Senate/House/DNC doing a training on how to understand and talk about Trump’s tariffs or his mass deportation plans with a million Dems over Zoom? Creating a true and robust center-left amplification network has to be an immediate, 2025 goal.

    Finally, our elected officials, every single one of them, at all levels of government, need to get louder in every way possible every day. There has to be a revolution in how we see the role of an elected official, both on the official side and on the campaign side. Electeds need to not only govern and legislate, but also should see themselves as influencers and info warriors with enormous platforms to help shape the information environment every day, 24/7/365. Simply, they have to work it as hard as they can, every day, using all the tools at their disposal.

    Party leaders should work to create a new baseline of understanding of how people get their information these days to help every person in this process become more effective. Classes and training should be required for all electeds and their staffs, and best practices shared.

    In the last Congress we saw examples of where we need to go. House Members like AOC, Eric Swalwell, Jamie Raskin, Maxwell Frost, Jeff Jackson, Jasmine Crockett and Jerad Moskowitz were effective at creating “hot moments’ which broke through the noise and went viral. These kinds of tactics are going to become far more important now in this period of opposition.

    The world has changed and we need to change with it or be left behind.

  11. First, the DNC and other state parties must become more like MeidasTouch.

    Yeah, I don’t think so. I find MeidasTouch to be somewhat divorced from reality in some instances. I don’t think that’s a good model for them to rebuild on.

  12. ‘Fess,
    I think he means in the sense of everywhere, all at once, in every way, every day. Rather than in a substantial sense. As far as style is concerned, he’s very impressed by the Harris social media team.

  13. I wonder how the Muslims of Dearborn, Michigan who voted for Trump are feeling today?

    Trump will nominate former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee to be ambassador to Israel, the president-elect announced Tuesday (US time).

    Huckabee is a staunch defender of Israel and his intended nomination comes as Trump has promised to align US foreign policy more closely with Israel’s interests as it wages wars against the Iran-backed Hamas and Hezbollah.
    (SMH)

  15. Nicholas says:
    Tuesday, November 12, 2024 at 1:04 pm

    Nicholas wants to avoid being seen as anti-Semitic.
    …..

    It isn’t anti-semitic to point out that the Israeli Government …….is a force for ill in international politics.

    Oh, I’m not so sure about that. I think this is a close call. It’s a semantically oblique way of saying Jews are evil. The old tropes are retailed: Jews murder children. Jews are rapists.

    You’re obviously not reluctant to resort to blaming Jews for the conflict when you’re not blaming the Democratic Party.

  17. Well certainly that is what Bibi wants, to have his government synonymous with the Jewish people, so that any criticism of the government can be labeled anti-semitic.
    Of course the truth is that his government is unlikely to be supported by the majority of Jews living in Israel.

  18. In more cabinet appointment news from the US, President-elect Donald Trump says he will nominate Fox News Channel host Pete Hegseth to be secretary of defence.

    “Pete is tough, smart and a true believer in America First,” Trump said in a statement.

    “With Pete at the helm, America’s enemies are on notice – Our Military will be Great Again, and America will Never Back Down,” he added.

    Hegseth is an Army National Guard veteran and, according to his website, served in Afghanistan, Iraq and Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.

    He unsuccessfully ran for the Senate in Minnesota in 2012 before joining Fox News.

    Reuters

  21. Confessions

    “Nate Silver@NateSilver538
    ·
    5h
    Updated estimate:
    Harris 75.7m votes (48.5%)
    Trump 77.9m votes (49.9%)
    other 2.6m votes (1.6%)

    Total turnout 156.1m votes (vs 158.6m in 2020)
    Trump margin +1.4%
    Tipping-point state: PA (Trump +2.0%)”
    ——————————————–
    I think this is really important to understanding the 2024 US result. The total turnout was LOWER than 2020, despite the population increase in between. The Democrats lost because they failed to get their vote out and went backwards. Trump did not suddenly get a massive increase in his vote. We are talking maybe +2% for Trump.

    This is important for interpreting Trump style populism in Australia. We have compulsory voting, unlike USA. Voter suppression is not a strategy in Australia. Antagonising your opponents is not a winner here.

  25. spoiler: the ‘Dems were too woke’ argument is silly

    Sure is. I’d rather wait for the final count, but it’s pretty clear that “sleepy” Joe Biden will forever be millions of votes more popular than Donald Trump at his most popular.

    The Dems were too lazy and complacent. Perhaps they were lulled by all the breathless anecdotes about how new voter registrations were surging. About record turnout here and there. About high early voting turnout. About Dems holding out to vote on the day, and the strength of their ground-game. About Trumpy 2020 neighborhoods which were suddenly not Trumpy anymore.

    Could be the anecdotes were cherry-picked. Could be they were a deliberate misinformation campaign intended to breed complacency among the Democratic base. Certainly they weren’t accurate, given that turnout is down in absolute terms, and must be down even harder in ‘percentage of registered/eligible voters’ terms. Doesn’t matter; at the end of the day, Democrats were the ones who stayed home. US elections are won by the side that shows up.

    Kamala ran a good campaign. Way bettern than 2016 or 2020. Despite Netanyahu trying to blow it up. Despite Russia trying to blow it up. Despite Elon and his rich tech bros trying to blow it up. Despite striking dock workers trying to blow it up. I think she should have gone on Rogan, but that’s about it. It’s Democratic voters who dropped the ball. They had one job, and they didn’t take it seriously.

    And at the end of the day, Voting Trends guy was right about basically everything. He made some timely observations (which even he didn’t like):

    – Dem early vote turnout is too low
    – Registered Republicans aren’t crossing party lines to vote against Trump (ditto Dems and Harris)
    – Women aren’t going to save the day when it’s mainly Republican women voting
    – (other stuff I can’t remember)

  27. Updated estimate:
    Harris 75.7m votes (48.5%)
    Trump 77.9m votes (49.9%)
    other 2.6m votes (1.6%)

    It’s amazing how relatively narrow wins can have such severe ramifications. Another case is Brexit where “leave” gained 51.89% to “stay” on 48.11% (Wiki).

    So if just over a million US voters had voted the other way and in the right places, the world would likely not be facing an economic, climate and security catastrophe.

  31. Stein will commence her next 4 year vacation I guess.
    Could Walz plausibly distance himself from this failed campaign in a future run? Conventional wisdom says he’s compromised, but perhaps conventional wisdom is out the window now

  32. Two running mates from failed tickets have gone on to be the nominee:

    1) Franklin Roosevelt (he was James Cox’s running mate in 1920. As we all know, he then went on to be the nominee in 1932, and win several times)
    2) Bob Dole (he was Gerald Ford’s running mate in 1976. He went on to be the nominee in 1996 and lost.)

    In the former case, that was back in the day when presidential tickets were all decided on convention floors and smoky backrooms, so it was easier to not have the stigma of a failed campaign (especially as this was an election where the Democratic ticket was just the token opposition.)

    In the latter case, Dole had basically been running for president in every open race subsequently. He attempted to get the nomination in 1980 but bombed badly. However, he surprised everybody by offering a credible challenge to Vice President George HW Bush in the 1988 Republican primaries. He also had risen as a prominent Republican figure, and major player in the Senate in that time. Nevertheless, when he got the nomination, it felt more like it was “his turn” rather than any real movement at his back.

    Either way, in both cases, they weren’t the nominee in the following election and had to wait a bit of time (12 years for FDR and 20 for Dole.)

    Other than that, there’s nobody else who’s done it. And it’s not without trying – lots of running mates on failed tickets have attempted to get the nod. Problem is the stigma of being on a losing ticket tends to stick to them (regardless of how unfair it may seem.)

    Anything’s possible, of course, but history is not on Walz’s side here.

  33. Anyway, 2028 is a million years away. We don’t know how things are going to play out or what the field will look like by then. Right now, Democrats need to focus on the present and trying to offer opposition to the incoming Trump II administration, as well as start to rebuild a coalition – something stronger than it’s been in the last decade.

  34. as well as start to rebuild a coalition

    Yes and no.

    If they can do that by putting out policies that they believe in, are passionate about, and can advocate strongly for, then sure.

    If they revert to their usual “we need black males, do a policy they should like”, “we need latinos, do a policy they should like” nonsense, no. 100% no. Have policies for all voters. Campaign to all voters. Stop trying to single out demographic blocs, especially where those blocs are racially defined.

  36. Bonza @ #432 Wednesday, November 13th, 2024 – 10:50 pm

    Stein will commence her next 4 year vacation I guess.
    Could Walz plausibly distance himself from this failed campaign in a future run? Conventional wisdom says he’s compromised, but perhaps conventional wisdom is out the window now

    He wasn’t a part of the Administration. He has his own record to run on independently and if you listen to his speech he’s going to keep making sure that people know what he’ll be doing going forward. All the good things and the good ways he does them. I don’t think he’s finished with national politics yet.

  37. So glad to see you Wat Tyler! I was worried about how you were handling things?

    Hopwever, in contradistinction to your point, Governor Walz has a job to go back to, he doesn’t sound defeated in the slightest and he sounds fired up and ready to go again.

    Anyway, I’m sure he learned a lot from the campaign and especially how the Democrats have to reach out to Young Men before their minds get polluted by the toxic slime from the likes of Nick Fuentes, Charlie Kirk, Andrew Tate, MElon Musk and, of course, Donald Trump.

    He gets it about the new conventional media ie podcasts, Discord, Vlogs, TikTok etc etc and so I just don’t think you can count him out.

    Phoenixes can rise out of the flames of defeat. Republicans do it every day. Donald Trump just did it. Nothing stuck to that guy.

  38. Hey, C@t. Thanks for your concern. I’m fine in regard to the result. Obviously, it’s upsetting (especially as someone who has been a fan of Kamala Harris since she ran for Senate in 2016) but I wasn’t too negatively affected, partly because I wasn’t totally shocked that it went like this (there were some signs I had hoped I were nothingburgers) and partly because nothing really surprises me anymore after the last decade of politics. I was absent for a few weeks prior to the election because I needed a mental health break and then, after the election, I thought I’d wait until the gloating and finger-pointing died down a little before returning.

    To your point, I do hope you’re right and, of course, anything’s possible. I like Tim Walz and think he was a real asset to the ticket. I hope to see more of him in the next few years and, if he doesn’t end up as the nominee, I would like to see him play a role in a future administration in the cabinet or something.

  39. Thanks for your reply, Wat. I appreciate you. I consider you a man of wisdom and considered thought.

    Always put concern for you and yours before this dread thing called politics. Happy trails! Even if it’s just to the local park. We all need to stay sane first and foremost. 🙂

  40. An interesting sidebar to the election is the realisation and discovery that Latinos think they’re White! Just like Italians, Slave, Greeks, Ukrainians etc. So they haven’t found it a problem, as mostly Non College Educated people, to slip into that category and vote for the Republicans.

  41. Stephen Miller has come up with another way to rid America of PoC (People of Colour). ‘Denaturalisation’. They’re also going to get rid of Birth Right American Citizenship as well.

    I’m sure Peter Dutton is taking notes.

  42. John Thune elected Senate majority leader in a move just about everybody saw coming. The secret ballot meant Trump is never going to know who voted for whom and therefore GOPers could vote safe in that knowledge.

  43. John Thune is the new Senate Majority Leader and his election is somewhat of a relief as it forestalls the Florida and Deep South takeover of the American Congress.

  46. ‘Republicans are projected to keep control of the House of Representatives, handing the party total control of Washington with President-elect Trump back in the White House in January.

    Decision Desk HQ projected the House had won its 218th seat Monday, the number needed for a majority in the lower chamber.

    The result is a major win for Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), who skyrocketed up from obscurity to lead the House GOP not only legislatively, but also in a large role in its campaign infrastructure.

    Republicans saved some of their most vulnerable incumbents, including Reps. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) and David Valadao (R-Calif.), while defeating several vulnerable Democratic incumbents. Pennsylvania state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie (R) unseated Rep. Susan Wild (D-Pa.), while businessman Rob Bresnahan defeated Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Pa.).

    Those results made up for some GOP losses. Three first-term New York Republicans — Reps. Anthony D’Esposito, Marc Molinaro and Brandon Williams — lost their reelection bids, as did Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.).

    The final House breakdown is uncertain, with ballots still being counted for several races in California. But Republicans are expected to have another slim majority heading into the new Congress.

    Those exact numbers will matter a lot for Johnson’s political future, for which policies Republicans can enact, and how the lower chamber will function — or not function.

    Trump gave the Speaker a shoutout in his victory speech from Palm Beach, Fla., in the early hours of Wednesday: “It also looks like we’ll be keeping control of the House of Representatives. And I want to thank Mike Johnson. I think he’s doing a terrific job.”

    House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) and House GOP Chair Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) also joined Trump at Mar-a-Lago to celebrate his victory, in an indication of the House GOP’s strong commitment to backing the Trump administration.

    Top House Republicans have been working with Senate Republicans for months on legislative plans that they can swiftly send to Trump in the first 100 days of total Republican control. Those include extending the tax cuts passed in Trump’s first term, boosting border wall funding, repealing climate initiatives and promoting school choice.

    But there are likely to be plenty of obstacles for Republicans’ ambitious agenda. The last two years of the historically slim House GOP majority was marked by intraparty disputes that, at times, brought legislative activity to a halt. That chaos was headlined by the historic ouster of former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.).

    Uncertainty about Republicans’ margin also raises immediate questions about Johnson’s future.

    The Speaker has been explicit about his intention to seek the gavel again if Republicans win unified control of government. But he has faced opposition from a few hard-line conservatives and already survived one attempt to remove him earlier this year, led by Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Thomas Massie (R-Ky.). House Democrats helped halt that attempt.

    To keep the gavel, Johnson will need to secure a majority vote on the House floor when it convenes on Jan. 3, 2025, requiring near-unanimous Republican support.

    Johnson told The Hill in an interview on the campaign trail in October that he intends “to have my party’s support for Speaker” on the House floor.

    The GOP victory also notably denies House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) the opportunity to rise to be the first Black Speaker of the House.’

    https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/4974235-house-republicans-control-majority/

  48. Another silver lining:

    ‘Climate-forward Democrats win tight races in battleground states

    Last week’s Republican sweep of the presidency and Congress concealed a bright spot for Democrats anxious about planetary heating: In three battleground states, climate-hawk Democrats won tough races.

    Those wins counter emerging narratives from the U.S. petroleum industry that Trump’s sweep of these battlegrounds gives Republicans a mandate to move against Biden administration climate regulations and subsidies.

    It also runs counter to the strategy followed at the top of the ticket by Vice President Harris, who backed away from climate messaging and espoused support for fracking in a vain attempt to win Pennsylvania.

    In Arizona, Ruben Gallego won by 3 points in a campaign focused on expanding the state’s gains from federal clean energy investments like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) — plans his opponent, Kari Lake, pledged to repeal.

    Meanwhile, in Nevada, incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen — who ran ads touting a clean-energy future built on lithium mined in the state — fended off challenger Sam Brown with an additional 0.6 percent of the vote. Brown’s campaign was supported by Americans for Prosperity, part of the conservative network owned by petrochemical magnates Charles and David Koch, which accused Rosen of wasting a trillion on the IRA.

    And in Michigan, Elissa Slotkin won the Senate race with a razor thin 0.3 percent margin after campaigning on her support for the IRA — defeating a campaign by Republican Mike Rogers, who ran ads falsely claiming the state would see nearly half a million job losses under the electric vehicle (EV) revolution, according to Politifact and The Detroit News.

    In an election determined in part by concerns over the economy, clean energy can mean something much more immediate than a safer climate: A job. According to an analysis by advocacy group Climate Power, clean energy projects supported by the IRA have created 21,000 new jobs in Michigan, 20,000 in Nevada and 18,000 in Arizona.

    To put that another way: Slotkin won in Michigan by a margin roughly equivalent to the number of new jobs the IRA had created, and Rosen by just 3,000 more votes than the number of new cleantech jobs in her state.

    That’s a connection that Slotkin, in her campaign, made explicitly.

    “If the fundamental question is ‘Who do we want to make that next generation of vehicles?’ you better believe I want that to be Michigan, not China,” she said, according to the Detroit News.’

  50. I suppose Gaetz told Trump that if he was made Attorney so he could stop the investigation into him playing around with underage girls he would also stop investigations into Trump’s numerous crimes.

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