12:13pm Sunday The Dem has taken the lead in California’s 45th by just 0.01%. But with late counting favouring the Dem heavily, he should increase his lead. I think this will be my last post on this thread.
1:47pm Saturday Small vote numbers today further reduced the Rep’s lead in California’s 45th to just 0.02%, while the Rep’s lead slightly increased to 1.1% in the 13th, but Dem-favouring counties in that district are undercounted. Overall, Reps lead in called races by 218-212. In the remaining five, Dems should win Ohio’s ninth and California’s 45th, the Reps should win Iowa’s first and Alaska’s only, with California’s 13th still undecided.
2:04pm Friday November 15 Today’s counting in California’s 13th broke heavily to the Dem, with the Rep lead reduced from 2.4% to 1.0% with 84% in. In the 45th, few votes were counted today, with the Rep holding a 0.08% lead with 93% in. If Reps lose both these seats, their House margin would be 220-215.
4:53pm The Reps have hit the 218 called seats needed for a House majority. But Trump wants three House Reps to serve in his administration, and Rep Matt Gaetz has already resigned, so there’ll need to be three by-elections in Rep-held seats. In most states, by-elections require a primary at which major party candidates are selected before the by-election itself, so it takes months to elect a new member.
12:36pm Thursday Reps lead in called House seats by 217-208. But one Rep seat lead in California is close to flipping to a Dem lead, with the Rep lead falling from 4% to 0.12% and 7% still remaining to be counted. Reps are likely to win all other seats they lead in, for a 221-214 majority.
2:56pm Wednesday The Reps lead in called House races by 216-207, with 218 needed for a majority. In Californian counting today, the 41st moved to the Dems, with Reps now only ahead by 0.8% after they led by 4% after election night. But other seats have the Reps holding steady. The Reps are virtually certain to win a House majority.
4:06pm Tuesday CNN has called the Arizona Senate contest for the Dem, giving the Reps a 52-47 lead. The Reps are very likely to win the last undecided Senate seat in Pennsylvania, where they have a 0.5% lead with 98% in.
In the House, Reps have a 214-205 lead in called races and an overall 222-213 lead. However, two Californian seats with narrow Rep leads moved to Dems in counting today. If Dems win both these seats, Reps would win the House by just a 220-215 margin.
2:26pm Monday The Dem will win the Arizona Senate contest, where he leads by 50.0-47.8 with 91% in. There hasn’t been much counting for the House today as it’s Sunday US time. Reps lead in called seats by 214-203, and they maintain a 222-213 overall lead.
In my Conversation article today on Newspoll, I said that Kamala Harris should have emphasised health care more, particularly Trump’s nearly successful attempt to repeal Obamacare in his first term.
3:43pm Sunday CNN has called Arizona for Trump, so he officially wins the Electoral College by 312 to 226. In the Arizona Senate, the Dem has increased his lead to 49.7-48.2 with 86% in. In the House, Reps lead in called races by 213-202. Today, Dems gained a lead in a Calif seat that Reps had previously led in, so Reps now lead in 222 seats to 213 for Dems. There are three more seats in Calif with current Rep leads by about 3%, which could be won by Dems.
4:42pm Saturday: CNN has called the Nevada Senate contest for the Democrat. In Arizona, the Dem leads by 49.5-48.4 with 82% in. In the House, Reps lead in called seats by 212-200. While a Californian seat has flipped to a Dem lead since yesterday, an Arizonan seat has flipped to a Rep lead. Reps still lead the House by 223-212.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
This post will be used to follow late counting in the US election. Donald Trump will win the last uncalled state in Arizona, and win 312 electoral votes to 226 for Kamala Harris. Trump leads the national popular vote by 50.7-47.7, with many more votes outstanding in Democratic strongholds like California. Before The New York Times Needle was turned off, its forecast was for Trump to win the popular vote by 1.5%.
You can read my latest on the big swings to Trump among Hispanics and young men at The Conversation. The Cook Political Report’s popular vote tracker shows the swings since 2020 by each state. Racially diverse states had the biggest swings to Trump.
In the Senate, Republicans have a 52-45 lead over Democrats (including allied independents) after gaining Ohio, Montana and West Virginia. Democrats have won or are leading in four of the five presidential swing states that held Senate elections (Pennsylvania the exception). If Republicans win the Senate by 53-47, Democrats could hope to recover it in 2026, when Republicans will be defending 21 of the 34 seats up.
Of the remaining contests, Republicans hold a 0.5% lead in Pennsylvania with 98% in, and Democrats hold a 1.3% lead in Nevada with 96% in. Arizona is the most interesting with Democrats holding a 1.7% lead with 74% in.
In the House of Representatives, Republicans lead Democrats in called races by 211 seats to 199. If Republicans win all the seats the currently lead in, they will win the House by 223-212. However, there are five seats Republicans lead by four points or less in California, where there is much late counting. So far California’s late counting has been good for Democrats.
If Democrats win the House or even get close, it would be despite a popular vote deficit in the Cook Political Report tracker of 51.6-46.9. While that gap will close on late counting, Republicans should still win by about 3%.
Irish election: November 29
Ireland uses the Hare-Clark proportional system that is used in Australia for Tasmanian and ACT elections. At this election there will be 174 members elected in 43 multi-member electorates. This election was called before it was due in March 2025.
Ireland has been governed for most of its history by one of two rival conservative parties: Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. After the 2020 election, these two parties formed a coalition government for the first time in Ireland’s history, with the Greens also included. The left-wing Sinn Féin had won the most votes in 2020 with 24.5%, the first time in almost a century that neither FG nor FF had won the most votes.
In Irish polls, SF support had surged to a peak of about 35% in May 2022, but since November 3023, SF support has slumped back to about 18%, behind both FF and FG. This election is likely to return the two conservative parties to a coalition government.
Left-wing parties to be routed at likely March German election
After the last federal German election in September 2021, a governing coalition was formed by the centre-left Social Democrats, the Greens and the pro-business Free Democrats. However, this government has now collapsed, and it’s likely the next German election will be held in March 2025, rather than September.
German polls have been terrible for the governing parties for a long time, and the conservative Christian Democrats are virtually certain to win the most seats. But they are unlikely to be able to form a coalition easily, given their opposition to dealing with the far-right Alternative for Germany.
Ven,
I agree with nadia’s sentiments. Is Ven short for Venceremos! Because that’s the attitude we need to have. 🙂
Here’s some good news! 😀
Women have won 60 seats in the New Mexico Legislature to secure the largest female legislative majority in US history, stirring expressions of vindication and joy among candidates who knocked on doors and found voters were ready.
Woot!
Political Nightwatchman & Nadia.
The Democrats need to find someone who can connect with the south and mid-west.
We saw it play out on election day – these states go bang bang bang bang bang for the Repubs. They are literally called as soon as the polls close.
Clearly Biden was able to break into the “south” via Georgia, but the Republicans have quickly gobbled that back. Florida is dead to the Democrats, and I notice that seats in Texas flipped from Dem to Repub too. Beshear may be interesting as it is correct he is the Governor of a southern state (I think Kentucky is considered part of the old south) so he may have some resonance with the “south”. Sure as hell Kamala didn’t. Newsom or Whitmer won’t either. Buttigieg would be a disaster in the south as would probably any woman. Democrats have to do a lot of internal work. No point mocking southerners and mid westerners. That doesn’t work. These people stick together like concrete.
The “south” does militantly vote Republican time after time. I think there was something called the southern strategy created in the 1970’s, and it has certainly worked a treat.
Another one the Republicans didn’t win:
Democratic US Representative Andrea Salinas has won reelection in Oregon’s 6th congressional District, beating Republican Mike Erickson to earn a second term in Congress after outraising him by millions of dollars. Oregon’s newest congressional district, the 6th was seen as leaning more toward Democrats, according to the Cook Political Report. That gave a slight advantage to the freshman Democratic incumbent, who also defeated Erickson in the 2022 election.
And this scares the living daylights out of me:
Robert F Kennedy Jr, the former independent presidential candidate turned Trump surrogate, is reviewing candidate resumes for the top jobs at the US government’s health agencies in Donald Trump’s new administration, a former Kennedy aide and a source familiar with the matter told Reuters on Friday.
Talk about the lunatics taking over the asylum! 😯
Smart move Black Men and Women, following the Pied Piper of Black American Republicans, Byron Donalds, into the voting booth to vote for Donald Trump:
Just hours after Donald Trump’s election win on Tuesday, Black people across the US reported receiving racist text messages telling them that they had been “selected” to pick cotton and needed to report to “the nearest plantation”. While the texts, some of which were signed “a Trump supporter”, varied in detail, they all conveyed the same essential message about being selected to pick cotton. Some of the messages refer to the recipients by name.
I guess MElon was conveying Putin’s message by proxy:
Donald Trump, during a call with Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Wednesday, handed the phone to Elon Musk, the New York Times is also reporting, confirming an earlier Axios story. It is not clear what the three men discussed or whether they touched on any change in US policy toward Ukraine in the wake of Trump’s election victory, the Times said.
Good advice for Ven to take a break. His tipping was atrocious.
Going into the history of Andy Beshear, there was probably one issue which Kamala had in mind when choosing him as a possible VP running mate, and potentially the Dems would have in 2028.
His father – Steve Beshear – was a defendant in one of the gay marriage rights court cases leading up to the Obergefell v Hodges gay marriage decision. So I suppose the Beshears don’t quite fit the “Democratic woke box”. I’d say Obergefell will probably be overturned in the next 12 months too.
Overturning Roe v Wade didn’t cause the Republicans any damage, so I doubt overturning gay marriage will either. Such is life I suppose.
C@tmomma @ #157 Saturday, November 9th, 2024 – 9:44 pm
Yeah, it’s going to be tough for black people for the next 4 years. It’s going to be pretty much a playground taunt in a lot of places, white kids telling black kids that they belong on the cotton plantations.
I’m reminded of a story told by a young mother who raised a family in Nazi Germany that she knew something was going wrong when she saw her 5-year-old child snap at someone that they were a “Jew Rat”.
Centre @ #159 Saturday, November 9th, 2024 – 9:48 pm
Your Melbourne Cup tip equally so. 😐
Anyway, didn’t your mother tell you, nobody likes a smart aleck?
He’s back! Wondering who the next Sec Def might be? Wonder no longer. It’s not guaranteed but these things have a way of coming true:
https://youtu.be/ZLDaYOEU34M?si=2-LVf_-7hxgTVqHC
“The “south” does militantly vote Republican time after time. I think there was something called the southern strategy created in the 1970’s, and it has certainly worked a treat.”
@Paul A
Posters have suggested when Lyndon Johnson ended segregation the Democrats lost the South but this is misleading. Because Jimmy Carter won the 1976 presidential election mostly winning southern states. It’s largely been documented the Democrats lost the South when Jerry Falwell and the New Christian Right started organising. Carter had blamed this factor for his loss against Ronald Reagan in 1980.
I generally think Christian right in America overlook Trump’s behaviour quite similarly to Reagan. Reagan had been divorced and brought in very Liberal abortion laws as Governor of California. The religious right of America still decided to back him for president as they do with Trump. I’m not suggesting Reagan is erratic as Trump or his behaviour is similar but the hypocrisies that they conviently ignore are there.
This is what women are up against now in America, mouthy little gobshites like this guy:
https://youtu.be/slM_7HqVbMc?si=oHDSemHiy-zeaGeC
The diagram posted above shows that Trump has captured the votes of low paid and poorly educated workers. Well there’s a hell of a lot of them in the US. There will soon be many more. That’s one way to establish social equality – by spreading the poverty around.
Trump has told his hard up followers that they’re ok. They can blame others – the outsiders – for their misery. He blames ‘the enemy from within’ for the opposition he encounters. Implicitly, he’s blaming a social caste or castes and he’s inviting his followers to hate them. He hates blacks. He hates the literate and the numerate. He hates the educated and the fair-minded. He uses hatred all the time and it’s working. The US is already a really badly fucked up country. It’s now going to get a whole lot worse. Hatred by day, hatred by night. Trump’s America is going to be a nightmare.
Reports that the Democrats are now trying to push out Sonia Sotomayer, and get a new (younger) Democrat Judge installed before the Senate swaps over. Article says Biden is unlikely to get involved during his “lame duck period”.
https://nypost.com/2024/11/08/us-news/senate-dems-furiously-debate-trying-to-push-out-justice-sonia-sotomayor-report/
Not content with getting rid of Biden, they now turn their attention to a Democrat Supreme Court Judge. And people wonder why the Democrats are in trouble. They turn on their own.
paul A: “Not content with getting rid of Biden, they now turn their attention to a Democrat Supreme Court Judge.”
——————————————————————————–
They’re concerned about a repetition of the situation with Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who refused to retire under Obama and then ended up dying during Trump’s term as President, just in time for Trump to be able to replace her with a conservative (Amy Coney Barrett) before he lost office.
However, Ginsburg was 83 when Trump became President while Sotomayor is only 70 (and, yes, she’s a Type 1 diabetic, but that’s not exactly a death sentence, and I assume it’s well managed).
And I reckon Biden would struggle with getting a nomination through the Senate by January, what with fillibustering and what have you. So it’s a crap idea IMO and rather insulting to Sotomayor.
paul A @ #166 Saturday, November 9th, 2024 – 11:41 pm
Remind me how many former employees (because they’re not civil servants anymore according to the Don) there will be on the scrap heap once the Trumpists give them their marching orders because they are on Emperor Old’s Enemies List? Or how many former members of King Don the Old’s Cabinet he summarily fired in his first term? Or how he said, “So what!?!” when told that people in his mob were fixing to hang HIS Vice President? That man eats people for breakfast, lunch and dinner.
You ever seen a turd on fire? Because that’s what you Trumpists are. Flaming hypocrites full of shit.
When you’re not toadying to Trump and wanting to get within ring kissing distance of him.
Sonia Sotomayor was diagnosed with Type 1 Diabetes when she was 7 years old and is Insulin dependent. I’m amazed she hasn’t already lost bits of her periphery to the disease. Peripheral Neuropathy and Heart Failure are something people with T1D are likely to get as they age.
Also, this has already happened to her:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor, a life-long diabetic, was treated by paramedics for low blood sugar at her home in Washington on Friday morning but was able to go to work afterward, a court spokeswoman said.
And you want to know what the caring soul, Donald Trump thought about it?
News website Axios reported in October that Republican President Donald Trump predicted he would get to appoint a justice to replace Sotomayor because of her health.
https://www.reuters.com/article/world/us/paramedics-called-to-treat-supreme-court-justice-sotomayor-idUSKBN1F82HN/
So you can take your contempt for the Democrats and stick it up your jumper, paulA. No one does contempt for human life like the Republicans and Donald Trump do.
Political Nightwatchman: “Reagan had been divorced and brought in very Liberal abortion laws as Governor of California. The religious right of America still decided to back him for president as they do with Trump. ”
——————————————————————————
I think there is a difference here, though.
Reagan had been divorced and (reflecting his Hollywood background) was never really a social conservative. But the religious right still basically saw him as one of their own: he was brought up as a member of a deeply Calvinist church called the Disciples of Christ (not quite evangelical, but ok by most of the happy clappers), and always represented himself as being a Christian. Evangelicals are quite tolerant of sinners, as long as they continue to express a belief in the faith.
The religious right’s attitude towards Trump is something rather different. I don’t think even his most avid evangelical supporters believes he is truly a Christian. They just see him as someone who is on their side, because he hates their enemies as much as they do. Evangelicals frequently compare him to the Persian king Cyrus the Great, who the Bible represents as having freed the Jews from captivity and helped them rebuild the Temple of Jerusalem. Even though he was not a follower of the Lord, the Bible represents the Lord as having “annointed” Cyrus to do His bidding and even suggests that He conversed with Cyrus in a friendly way.
So I think the idea is that Trump, despite being the sort of unrepentant sinner who would normally be consigned to the depths of hell, is nevertheless, like Cyrus, performing God’s work on earth, and that’s why evangelicals strongly support him. Whether or not they think this will somehow redeem him and permit him to go to heaven is unclear: as indeed it has always been in relation to Cyrus.
c@t: are you saying you think it’s reasonable for Sotomayor to be pushed out, or not?
(I acknowledge it’s a bit of a moot point, as I very much doubt there would be time to have her replaced.)
meher baba @ #170 Sunday, November 10th, 2024 – 6:43 am
Yes I do. We have a rule in Australia for our High Court Judges that compels them to move on when they are 70 and I believe that’s a good thing. Also, they are free to retire whenever they want to.
You’ll probably see it on the other side as well:
There are no vacancies on the Supreme Court right now, but Trump’s election has raised speculation that right-leaning Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas—the two oldest on the court, at age 74 and 76, respectively—could decide to retire while the White House and Senate are in conservative hands.
3 days ago
But hey, the Republicans always get a free pass while the Democrats never do.
However, that being said, there may not be enough time or any inclination to get Biden’s choice to replace Sonia Sotomayor because Mitch McConnell would just do what he did to Obama when Ginsburg died.
I can see the logic in trying to get Sotomayor to resign while Biden is still in office, but I don’t see the Republicans in the Senate allowing that to happen.
I think Biden’s focus should now be on the lower courts to prevent Trump from stacking them even further than he already has.
c@t: “However, that being said, there may not be enough time or any inclination to get Biden’s choice to replace Sonia Sotomayor because Mitch McConnell would just do what he did to Obama when Ginsburg died.”
——————————————————————————-
First of all, it wasn’t Ginsburg’s replacement that McConnell blocked, it was her good mate Scalia’s. (Trump was still President when Ginsburg died, in Sept 2020 and got her replaced by Barrett just in time).
Also, McConnell was able to block the replacement of Scalia by Garland because the Republicans had a Senate majority at the time, which they don’t have again until January. The problem now is more that, by any fair standard, they would need to have hearings about Sotomayor’s replacement, and there would be avenues for the Republicans to try to extend those hearings long enough to ensure that time runs out.
Also, I believe that Sotomayor has been approached several times by Dems keen for her to retire and she has told them to go jump.
My personal view about all of this is that there should definitely be a retirement age for US judges, but I really don’t like the current massive politicisation of Supreme Court appointments that both sides have helped to fuel. I’m rather hoping that, notwithstanding the likelihood that Trump will now be able to increase the conservative majority still further, the temperature might slowly start to come down a bit now that the abortion issue is off the table at the Supreme Court level for the indefinite future.
But I am a little worried about a concerted attack on SSM through progressed through both the Congress and the Supreme Court. I would hope that Trump will try to nip that in the bud: I suspect that the anti-SSM vote is significantly lower than the pro-life vote and, if so, nothing good can come for him out of such a battle.
Remember that Trump is going to appoint Musk to a role overseeing government efficiency which translates to reducing the public service.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/elon-musk-trump-harris-high-status-males-4chan-b2606617.html
I forgot to mention in my last post my preference (idealistic if not naive though it might be) that people in the US could go back to thinking of the judges on the Supreme Court as independent jurists rather than as lifelong representatives of the political party that put them there. I acknowledge that Justices Alito and Thomas have been extremely unhelpful to that cause by behaving consistently like unabashed Republican hacks.
However, notwithstanding Mavis’s intense attacks on me whenever I make this point, I have seen signs on the part of Justice Barrett and, to some extent, Justices Gorsarch and Kavanagh, that they are a little bit better than this. So the Court is currently not a hopeless case. Of course, if Trump were silly enough to appoint Aileen Cannon to the bench, then all bets are off. But I don’t believe he has any intention whatsoever to do something like that: he likes to intimate these sorts of things as a mischievous way of “owning the Libs.”
Confessions: “Remember that Trump is going to appoint Musk to a role overseeing government efficiency which translates to reducing the public service.”
——————————————————————————-
I’ll give Musk his claims to be intelligent and “aneurotypical.” But how good would he truly be at defending himself physically? He looks to me to be rather less of a macho man than he is a flabby sort of nerd (and I acknowledge that it takes one to know one).
There have been concerns expressed that no-fault divorce might now find its way to the table in the wake of Vance’s remarks that people get divorced too easily. Thankfully it appears the most Trump could do on that front is pressure states to change their laws.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2024/11/09/no-fault-divorce-jd-vance-conservatives/
meher:
All jokes aside, how weird is the concept though? It is just bizarro thinking.
The democrats need to spend more time with tradesmen, firies, cleaners, police officers, coal miners
——————————
Trump is more of that ilk?
This was not a political spectrum election. It was not even wholly a class election (although more so than it was a political one). Populism and cultist/culture. A culmination of decades of cultivation of culture based hate and fear by the GOP and large sections of the media along with pretty ineffectual governing by both parties. People are tired of ‘it’s too hard to change’ excuses. Add inflation in a country where so many live in the edge and it is ripe for a populist clown promising the golden land. The more the status quo berated him (charged him, convicted him, laughed at him) the more popular his populism got. Trump was indeed clever in how he tapped into it but, really, he was just being himself and the clown shoe fit.
There are genuine salt of the earth Dems out there running. But they aren’t doing much better. Yes, Dems need to stop looking so elitist. But Biden only scraped a win in 2020 and he is was very relatable across the board centrist. But still they flocked to the born rich, property developer, bone spur, lie a minute clown.
It isn’t going to be just a less elitist less woke type dem candidate that will win elections. Look at Walz – his footy coach, teacher, national guard, working class schtick made no difference. It is charisma like Clinton or Obama (along with all the other things). And I still say it matters less which part of the spectrum they come from.
People find fault in the Dems based on their political viewpoint. Too woke, too centrist, elitist….. but dropping causes like fairness, equality of opportunity, decency, and smart detailed policy etc will lose their broad church. They just don’t sell it enough to a populace that likes good preachers.
Having said that, for some fun….. What about Tester for Potus 2028. Beshear VP. Tester is both salt of earth, good speaker and one of the more decent peeps in the circus (he still lost in Montana).
What happened to Ven?
Fess: “meher:
All jokes aside, how weird is the concept though? It is just bizarro thinking.”
——————————————————————————-
Yes, it’s rubbish: but what do you expect from a guy who named one of his kids X Æ A-Xii.
I suspect all nerd males nurture a fantasy deep in their hearts that one day circumstances will suddenly thrust them into an alpha role. I think that’s what’s going on with Musk here.
However, having, for my sins, been engaged in a bit of public service reform in my time, it’s a rather thankless task beset by legal minefields: not a very suitable environment for a would-be alpha dog. From what I know of how the US Government operates, I think they are even more hamstrung by processes than we are: not just various laws and legal precedents, but multiple, sometimes conflicting layers of Congressional and Senate oversight.
I suspect that Musk will find himself confronted by some of these challenges and rapidly lose interest in the whole business. He’ll try to achieve something that he can point to as a personal victory, and then head off on his next crazy venture, while attempting to maintain a good enough relationship to Trump to ensure that a lot of US government business comes his way.
Team Katich @ #180 Sunday, November 10th, 2024 – 8:16 am
He was very depressed at the election result and gave up hope that his words and work could ever change anything.
Not my attitude, of course. Hence why we need him to come back for the fight ahead. All hands on deck and shoulders to the wheel!
Too late for Sotomayor. Ffs.
Then again, another ultra conservative Trump appointee might help the cause of a full shake up of that place next time.
The theory, written by an anonymous user, suggests that the only people able to think freely are “high [testostrone](sic) alpha males”
This is obviously written by a low testosterone beta male incel because the fact is that high testosterone males never think about anything other than sex.
Oh. Well, a break doesn’t hurt. But if Ven wants to make change, time on here is better spent at the coalface – you and Zoomster being able to do both (time wise and mentally/emotionally) is impressive and your insights appreciated.
Testosterone is natural, testosterone is good. Not everybody has lots and that’s just as bloody well.
Thanks, TK. Our children are grown so it’s easier for us. You concentrate on bringing well-balanced children up. Which I know they will be if their dad is any guide. 🙂
Oh, and my inspiration is Joan of Arc and Anne Frank and my motto is, Venceremos! We will win!
Oh, and, ‘Everything in moderation’. Which applies to testosterone as well. 😉
You know, I keep wondering if Trump will throw ‘Illegal Immigrant’ MElon Musk out of the country? Or just offer him a Genius Green Card like Melania got? 😐
Taxonomy of a Trump bro. And this is the last time I’m using the word ‘bro’ as I’ve come to hate it now.
https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2024/11/taxonomy-of-the-trump-bro/680608/?gift=tOfc0RkeX2nFz8AMdT3Xj8GyDTPaEN4w-bA8AmrFvG0
C@t:
I thought Musk had long since become a US citizen?
SK: “Look at Walz – his footy coach, teacher, national guard, working class schtick made no difference. ”
———————————————————————————
Yeah but, despite these things, Walz was also widely seen as being from the left of the party and pretty woke.
——————————————————————————–
“It is charisma like Clinton or Obama (along with all the other things). And I still say it matters less which part of the spectrum they come from.”
——————————————————————————–
You might well be right, but it’s never really been tested. The truly successful Democrats at the national level have tended to be both charismatic and relatively moderate: JFK, Carter (who was seen as very charismatic before everything became unstuck), Clinton, Obama… People sometimes suggested that the likes of Jerry Brown or Mario Cuomo might have been a hit at the national level, but they never got the chance, so we don’t really know.
Is there a charismatic lefty in the Dem Party? I guess Newsom. They could certainly do worse in terms of a performer, but I can’t see him doing any better with the blue collar voters than did Harris.
—————————————————————————–
“…dropping causes like fairness, equality of opportunity, decency, and smart detailed policy etc will lose their broad church. They just don’t sell it enough to a populace that likes good preachers.”
——————————————————————————
The Dems had an extremely good brand in these areas before wokeness appeared on the scene. I think most American voters who are uncomfortable with the woke agenda would express support for fairness and equality of opportunity. What they believe is happening now (and with some justification IMO) is that some extreme and noisy interest groups and niche ideologies are getting an unfair and unequal level of attention from the Dems.
This problem should be fixable. The UK Labor Party under Blair was able to push the Trotskyist infiltrators and other loony left types out of the way: albeit that they returned under Corbyn’s leadership but were ultimately dealt with again and hopefully won’t be back in a hurry (albeit that the moderates under Starmer currently appear to be quite capable of stuffing things up without much help from the far left).
This is what women are up against now in America, mouthy little gobshites like this guy:
https://youtu.be/slM_7HqVbMc?si=oHDSemHiy-zeaGeC
@C@tmomma
Meh, I wouldn’t lose sleep over that little wanka. As soon a Democratic administration come to power he will go back into his cave never to be heard of again. As mentioned he’s a bandwagon jumper. I watched the whole clip and there is a suggestion the Bernie Sanders supporters have now gone to Trump- because their tired of the Democrats inaction on some of Bernie Sanders idea’s. I generally don’t think Sanders supporters have gone to Trump. But Sanders complaints the Democrats inaction to help the working class has alienated them to go to Trump. The article they referenced which David Brooks has suggested maybe Sanders was right is here.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/06/opinion/trump-elites-working-class.html
Yeah Musk wanted to wrestle the guy in charge of Facebook Zuckerberg it’s said behind the scenes Zuck is still laughing at Musk.
130Million big ones Musk put into Trumps campaign who says money cannot buy love?
The deplorables have risen to swamp the leftie leaning elites see Qatar has dumped Hamas and Iran is sucking up to Trump maybe a little worried that little thing about trying to kill Trump may get ugly for its regime.
No more Crimea it’s gone to Russia says Trump.
Political Nightwatchman,
Thanks for that article. It’s a conundrum to be sure. How do you re-attract Working Class Males when to do so, as a Democrat, would involve coarsening and debasing yourself to please them? Thus to abandon everything you’ve fought so hard to instil in society? So, Democrats can only continue to appeal to people’s better angels, imho, and stop men from thinking that a de-evolution to the Cave Men mentality is the best way to live your life as a 21st Century Man.
I have read quite a few articles (and posts here on PB) about why Trump won and Harris lost. Most of them seem to be convoluted attempts to find an “acceptable” justification. It is unusual to find an article willing to point out the simplest and most obvious reason …
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/nov/09/us-voters-kamala-harris-donald-trump-republican
Yes, it is uncomfortable. Yes, it should not be true. But yes, it is.
Confessions @ #191 Sunday, November 10th, 2024 – 8:33 am
Yes. How did that happen I wonder? Illegal Immigrants becoming US Citizens!?! Quel horreur! Round him up! Trump did say that the first ones out the door should be Illegal Immigrants who committed crimes. 😉
Au contraire, dear ‘Fess. ‘Bro’ has to become as despised a term as ‘woke’. And ‘bruh’. Kill me already with the little pipsqueaks who love that testosterone-adjacent terminology.
Just to be clear, ‘the woke agenda’ is a characterisation by the right wing sneering at the idea that we shouldn’t discriminate against other people and be more inclusive of disadvantaged minority groups. Woke is just a cliche for people who like to punch down on people that hold less power in society due to their identity.