12:13pm Sunday The Dem has taken the lead in California’s 45th by just 0.01%. But with late counting favouring the Dem heavily, he should increase his lead. I think this will be my last post on this thread.
1:47pm Saturday Small vote numbers today further reduced the Rep’s lead in California’s 45th to just 0.02%, while the Rep’s lead slightly increased to 1.1% in the 13th, but Dem-favouring counties in that district are undercounted. Overall, Reps lead in called races by 218-212. In the remaining five, Dems should win Ohio’s ninth and California’s 45th, the Reps should win Iowa’s first and Alaska’s only, with California’s 13th still undecided.
2:04pm Friday November 15 Today’s counting in California’s 13th broke heavily to the Dem, with the Rep lead reduced from 2.4% to 1.0% with 84% in. In the 45th, few votes were counted today, with the Rep holding a 0.08% lead with 93% in. If Reps lose both these seats, their House margin would be 220-215.
4:53pm The Reps have hit the 218 called seats needed for a House majority. But Trump wants three House Reps to serve in his administration, and Rep Matt Gaetz has already resigned, so there’ll need to be three by-elections in Rep-held seats. In most states, by-elections require a primary at which major party candidates are selected before the by-election itself, so it takes months to elect a new member.
12:36pm Thursday Reps lead in called House seats by 217-208. But one Rep seat lead in California is close to flipping to a Dem lead, with the Rep lead falling from 4% to 0.12% and 7% still remaining to be counted. Reps are likely to win all other seats they lead in, for a 221-214 majority.
2:56pm Wednesday The Reps lead in called House races by 216-207, with 218 needed for a majority. In Californian counting today, the 41st moved to the Dems, with Reps now only ahead by 0.8% after they led by 4% after election night. But other seats have the Reps holding steady. The Reps are virtually certain to win a House majority.
4:06pm Tuesday CNN has called the Arizona Senate contest for the Dem, giving the Reps a 52-47 lead. The Reps are very likely to win the last undecided Senate seat in Pennsylvania, where they have a 0.5% lead with 98% in.
In the House, Reps have a 214-205 lead in called races and an overall 222-213 lead. However, two Californian seats with narrow Rep leads moved to Dems in counting today. If Dems win both these seats, Reps would win the House by just a 220-215 margin.
2:26pm Monday The Dem will win the Arizona Senate contest, where he leads by 50.0-47.8 with 91% in. There hasn’t been much counting for the House today as it’s Sunday US time. Reps lead in called seats by 214-203, and they maintain a 222-213 overall lead.
In my Conversation article today on Newspoll, I said that Kamala Harris should have emphasised health care more, particularly Trump’s nearly successful attempt to repeal Obamacare in his first term.
3:43pm Sunday CNN has called Arizona for Trump, so he officially wins the Electoral College by 312 to 226. In the Arizona Senate, the Dem has increased his lead to 49.7-48.2 with 86% in. In the House, Reps lead in called races by 213-202. Today, Dems gained a lead in a Calif seat that Reps had previously led in, so Reps now lead in 222 seats to 213 for Dems. There are three more seats in Calif with current Rep leads by about 3%, which could be won by Dems.
4:42pm Saturday: CNN has called the Nevada Senate contest for the Democrat. In Arizona, the Dem leads by 49.5-48.4 with 82% in. In the House, Reps lead in called seats by 212-200. While a Californian seat has flipped to a Dem lead since yesterday, an Arizonan seat has flipped to a Rep lead. Reps still lead the House by 223-212.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
This post will be used to follow late counting in the US election. Donald Trump will win the last uncalled state in Arizona, and win 312 electoral votes to 226 for Kamala Harris. Trump leads the national popular vote by 50.7-47.7, with many more votes outstanding in Democratic strongholds like California. Before The New York Times Needle was turned off, its forecast was for Trump to win the popular vote by 1.5%.
You can read my latest on the big swings to Trump among Hispanics and young men at The Conversation. The Cook Political Report’s popular vote tracker shows the swings since 2020 by each state. Racially diverse states had the biggest swings to Trump.
In the Senate, Republicans have a 52-45 lead over Democrats (including allied independents) after gaining Ohio, Montana and West Virginia. Democrats have won or are leading in four of the five presidential swing states that held Senate elections (Pennsylvania the exception). If Republicans win the Senate by 53-47, Democrats could hope to recover it in 2026, when Republicans will be defending 21 of the 34 seats up.
Of the remaining contests, Republicans hold a 0.5% lead in Pennsylvania with 98% in, and Democrats hold a 1.3% lead in Nevada with 96% in. Arizona is the most interesting with Democrats holding a 1.7% lead with 74% in.
In the House of Representatives, Republicans lead Democrats in called races by 211 seats to 199. If Republicans win all the seats the currently lead in, they will win the House by 223-212. However, there are five seats Republicans lead by four points or less in California, where there is much late counting. So far California’s late counting has been good for Democrats.
If Democrats win the House or even get close, it would be despite a popular vote deficit in the Cook Political Report tracker of 51.6-46.9. While that gap will close on late counting, Republicans should still win by about 3%.
Irish election: November 29
Ireland uses the Hare-Clark proportional system that is used in Australia for Tasmanian and ACT elections. At this election there will be 174 members elected in 43 multi-member electorates. This election was called before it was due in March 2025.
Ireland has been governed for most of its history by one of two rival conservative parties: Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. After the 2020 election, these two parties formed a coalition government for the first time in Ireland’s history, with the Greens also included. The left-wing Sinn Féin had won the most votes in 2020 with 24.5%, the first time in almost a century that neither FG nor FF had won the most votes.
In Irish polls, SF support had surged to a peak of about 35% in May 2022, but since November 3023, SF support has slumped back to about 18%, behind both FF and FG. This election is likely to return the two conservative parties to a coalition government.
Left-wing parties to be routed at likely March German election
After the last federal German election in September 2021, a governing coalition was formed by the centre-left Social Democrats, the Greens and the pro-business Free Democrats. However, this government has now collapsed, and it’s likely the next German election will be held in March 2025, rather than September.
German polls have been terrible for the governing parties for a long time, and the conservative Christian Democrats are virtually certain to win the most seats. But they are unlikely to be able to form a coalition easily, given their opposition to dealing with the far-right Alternative for Germany.
Meher Baba
Harris was only woke-as-woke briefly for the purposes of differentiation during the 2019 primaries. In reality she’s always been a centrist through and through.
It was Trump who signed this into law, not the Democrats. Harris was asked about it in 2019 and she said wtte she would follow the law. It wasn’t her policy, it was already law.
Interesting chart that shows how the voter coalitions regarding education and income have changed over time.
Kirsdarke @ #103 Saturday, November 9th, 2024 – 3:57 pm
One of the podcasters I listen to raised this quadrant analysis and concluded it’s a bad quadrant to be in. And not just because Dole and Romney were losers, but this is why they lost.
Trump or his anointed replacement will be harder to get rid of in 2028 than a claret stain in a white shagpile rug.
I talked about this yesterday. Dearborn residents are something like 50% muslim American.
East Dearborn, Michigan
2020
Joe Biden 12,437 votes (82%)
Donald Trump 2,521 votes (17%)
2024
Donald Trump 6,501 votes (46%)
Jill Stein 4,499 votes (32%)
Kamala Harris 2,418 votes (17%)
⚪️ Other Candidates 608 votes (4%)
94% swing towards Trump
Many Trump supporters may be non-college but they’re about to get educated at the School of Hard Knox.
Bellwether: “Meher Baba
Harris was only woke-as-woke briefly for the purposes of differentiation during the 2019 primaries. In reality she’s always been a centrist through and through.”
—————————————————————————-
That was a line that the Dems and, in particular, the anti-Trumper Republicans were running throughout the campaign. But was it really true?
Before being elected DA of San Francisco in 2002, she pledged never to use the death penalty, and stuck to that pledge.
In the job, she created a Hate Crimes Unit, focusing on hate crimes against LGBT schoolkids. She also created an Environmental Crimes unit. And she supported the “sanctuary city” status of San Francisco.
As Attorney-General of California, she was arguably a bit more moderate, focusing heavily on business crimes and held the line on some issues like prison labour and alleged wrongful convictions where the left were pushing hard for change.
As Senator, she moved a little further to the left once more, especially on immigration issues. And she was also an early sponsor of AOC’s Green New Deal.
In summation, I think her record is a mixed bag. I would say that she clearly belongs to the left-wing of the Democrat Party as a whole, but arguably not entirely to the more radical left-wing of the Californian Democrats. That puts her in a similar sort of position to that of her one-time boyfriend and mentor Willie Brown, the much-loved mayor of San Francisco (and, dare I say, a much shrewder and more capable politician than Harris: but I think he was a good influence, and contributed strongly to what has to be seen as a pretty good career for her, including her strong media and public performances in the campaign just ended).
Confessions: “I talked about this yesterday. Dearborn residents are something like 50% muslim American.”
——————————————————————————
They’re also about 100 per cent blue collar, which probably explains the votes that swung to Trump rather than to Stein. There’s a lot of unrest about EVs in that part of the world. So full credit to Elissa Slotkin for bucking the general trend and winning a Senate seat.
Think about it says:
Saturday, November 9, 2024 at 2:55 pm
Question to PB Bloggers.
Do you really think Trump is going away after current term is over?
==========================
Yes, he’s term limited and overturning amendments is a nightmare. He’ll go in 4 years.
He’s more likely to try to set JD Vance up for the Presidency in 2028, so you can probably expect “Trump rallies” to continue for another 4 years, and then that’s it.
House of Reps latest – 204 Dems, 212 GOP’s.
GOP will go to 213 soon, as the count in Washington CD 4 is between two Republicans.
Calif CD 22 should also go to the GOP, and Calif CD 45 & 47 most likely to the Dems.
Getting very tight.
Dems have also flipped 5 seats, two of which are in the south, being in Louisiana, and – wait for it – Alabama.
GOP have flipped 6 seats, mainly in Nth Carolina, Pennsylvania & Michigan.
Meher – very analytical posts you provide to this site. A good read, thanks.
Slotkin brushed aside the attacks on her driving a petrol vehicle by pointing out that a) she lived rural which made an EV impractical, and b) EVs are going to keep being produced because of demand, so isn’t it better they’re made in America than China? Hard to argue with that logic, even for auto workers.
Harris’s messaging could’ve been sharper, and likely would have if she’d benefited from a proper primary process. But remember it was a week ago today that Trump stood in front of a rally and performed a sex act on a microphone stand while people cheered. How in blazes do you compete with that if you’re a normal, sane person?
Bellwether: “Trump or his anointed replacement will be harder to get rid of in 2028 than a claret stain in a white shagpile rug.”
——————————————————————————
Trump personally would be, but a point must come at which the electorate will consider him to be too old.
But I don’t believe most of the potential “MAGA” successors who are close to Trump are going to be any good. I suspect that even MAGA voters find JD Vance extremely smug, phony and generally unappealing. They’d probably give some consideration to Don junior but, once he has to get up in front of a microphone and talk to an audience, he’ll clearly be seen as a dud. Ivanka has more going for her, but I’d be very surprised if she wants to do it.
The one MAGA-type contender who I’d watch closely is Matt Gaetz. Like Trump and Vance, he is clearly a total cynic and doesn’t believe a word of anything he says. But he’s more like Trump than Vance in that he expresses his cynical views in a way that invites his audience to share the joke, rather than carry on in the rather pompous way that Vance does. I suspect that his plotted career path is to get hold of the Florida governorship in 2026, which would make him more likely to run as a Republican candidate in 2032.
My guess is that, barring a Trump campaign for a third term, the 2028 Republican primaries are going to feature Vance, Haley, Ramaswamy, De Santis and perhaps Rubio. Trump will probably annoint Vance, but I doubt that even that will be enough to get Vance over the line. He’s just not a very appealing sort of a guy.
Fess: “How in blazes do you compete with that if you’re a normal, sane person?”
——————————————————————————–
No idea. No other politician in human history could have gotten away with it. There’s one set of rules for Trump, and one for everyone else: even other Republicans.
One thing I’ll say: I don’t understand why I keep reading on this site that Trump is senile and demented and an idiot and so forth. He’s certainly a clown and he’s extremely ignorant on a lot of issues. But he’s no dummy. And, if he’s senile, you certainly could have fooled me: he kept campaigning and campaigning right up to the early hours of the morning on election day. His speeches were rambling at times, and he did and said some bizarre and inappropriate stuff at time, but he was mostly presenting a consistent message.
Yeah, evidenced by the fact he’s the first convicted felon who will hold the office.
Going back to Latino voters, I just heard that 40% of Latino voters are aged under 30. That is an incredible statistic, and means that they do not know of a federal political world without Trump in it since they came of voting age.
He shows strong signs of cognitive decline when you watch him in interviews. This is why he refused to do another debate, why he refused to do serious interviews in the campaign.
This is definitely age-related, but it should raise serious questions of his ability to handle the demands of the office. Unfortunately everyone was enthralled by him fellating a mic stand, and the crazy antics to bother with this important issue.
Nadia: “Yes, he’s term limited and overturning amendments is a nightmare. He’ll go in 4 years.”
Maybe.
As per the 22nd amendment he can not be elected President for another term, but that is not the same thing as not being able to act as president, or to become president again by succession.
So what are we saying here?
That Trump will find a way to change the constitution to allow himself a third term (the one that was stolen)? I have made a post in the past suggesting just that!
Does Trump have enough power to get that done?
Ok, what about somebody not born in the US to be president the term after that?
Musk does have the power (money)?
One vote from me on Trump’s cognitive decline, most likely early frontal lobe dementia. Too many experts are suggesting it’s the case for me to doubt it. They particularly reference his phonemic paraphasias and his gait. His ability to nod off during the NY trial was extremely unusual and telling. He constantly loses the thread during speeches (‘The Weave’ lol). He is not far off 80 years old, his father developed dementia and he appears to have a less than optimal diet. As with climate change I will leave this to the experts and not lay people to guide me. (In addition he’s always displayed malignant narcissism but that’s a whole other story).
Centre:
In his last term Trump contravened the Emoluments Clause of the constitution many times. He didn’t require constitutional amendment, he just breached the constitution and sallied forth.
Ditto with calling for an insurrection.
Meher said it, but others have said it many times over the years: a different standard applies to Trump. But even if it didn’t he now has presumptive immunity as president granted to him from the supreme court.
Unsurprisingly Jack Smith is looking like the first in Trump’s retributive line of fire.
Fess
I have no idea about the Constitution of the USA. Other Bludgers have assured that Trump can’t serve three terms and that Musk can never be president.
I hope they’re right, I trust that they’re right!
Centre:
It’s hopium.
I’d bet money he will run again. If he’d lost this election he would’ve run again. He’s addicted to using taxpayers and the federal government to enrich himself and his family, therefore he is going to run again.
Fess, completely hypothetical:
Over the next four years; Trump stops the wars around the world, the economy in the US grows with low inflation, the stock market booms, borders are controlled – the people and Republicans want him again. So Trump gets back his stolen election. In that time how rich will Musk become? Musk buys everybody and changes the constitution allowing him to become president.
And MElon Musk’s abuse of the Immigration system can go unpunished?
Sorry, silly question. 😐
Fargo61 @ #116 Saturday, November 9th, 2024 – 5:00 pm
Or to just decide that he’s not going to leave the White House. He’s already said he should have done just that in 2020. Past is prologue.
My guess is that, barring a Trump campaign for a third term, the 2028 Republican primaries are going to feature Vance, Haley, Ramaswamy, De Santis and perhaps Rubio. Trump will probably annoint Vance, but I doubt that even that will be enough to get Vance over the line. He’s just not a very appealing sort of a guy.
meher baba, I think you have forgotten how JD Vance code switched at the VP Debate and turned on a dime away from being the smug prick we’ve all come to know and despise, to seeming very reasonable indeed. It was a seamless volte face and one which impressed people on both sides of politics. So I think that, unless Trump decides to rule until they carry him out of the White House in a box (his Supreme Court will grant him any request), and then bequeaths the crown to Barron (who I think would be his choice), we’ll probably see a contest between JD Vance and whoever the Democratic Party is smart enough to choose to run against him. And they need to make a very smart choice indeed to be able to outsmart JD Vance and the Right Wing media ecosystem which will be brought out in force against whoever the Democrats choose.
I’m going to make an early prediction of a Governor Wes Moore/Alexandria Occasio-Cortez ticket.
Centre @ #121 Saturday, November 9th, 2024 – 5:47 pm
Musk becoming President requires another amendment and one that is very justified – it seems discriminatory that in a settler society, first generation migrants are barred from the presidency.
Is Trump insane? I suspect not
Is he objectionable ? Of course
Does he understand the Republican party and how to press the right buttons there? Yes
When he reaches irrelevance in 2028 when he is no longer on the ballot paper can his version of maga as the owner of the Republicans continue?
No
OC
I do not fear Trump at all. Musk on the other hand has his whole life ahead of him and he is filthy, filthy rich…
Centre:
Musk is not going to be president.
But if all those variables you describe come to fruition, I reckon Trump won’t leave office.
c@t: “So I think that, unless Trump decides to rule until they carry him out of the White House in a box (his Supreme Court will grant him any request), and then bequeaths the crown to Barron (who I think would be his choice), we’ll probably see a contest between JD Vance and whoever the Democratic Party is smart enough to choose to run against him. And they need to make a very smart choice indeed to be able to outsmart JD Vance and the Right Wing media ecosystem which will be brought out in force against whoever the Democrats choose.”
——————————————————————————-
Don junior is pretty clearly Trump’s preferred choice. Barron won’t be eligible to run for President until 2041.
And I don’t share your opinion of Vance. He performed ok at the debate with Walz, but a lot of that came down to Walz being such a poor performer. If Vance had been up against someone who had come at him with everything bar the kitchen sink, I think the nasty side of Vance would have come out for all to see: the Vance that came up with the “childless cat ladies comment” and the appalling stuff about the Haitians eating pets. He’s a nasty piece of work, no doubt, and I reckon the American people appreciate that fact.
——————————————————————————
“I’m going to make an early prediction of a Governor Wes Moore/Alexandria Occasio-Cortez ticket.”
——————————————————————————
That ticket’s hardly going to win back the white working class vote. I’d prefer Beto O’Rouke to either of them, and he’s also too far to the left.
I’m not sure I know who the best option is just yet. But I kind of feel it would need to be either a white or Latino man. And someone like Gretchen Whitmer or Amy Klobuchar would go better as the V-P pick.
They need to go for someone who has actually won in the South.
Someone like Andy Beshear, who is the Governor of Kentucky.
And they need to keep Hollywood celebrities and songsters off the stage.
People are not electing Beyonce, Jay Z, George Clooney, Lady Gaga or Taylor Swift to positions in gov’t.
It’s utterly ridiculous. These artisans may be good at making movies or songs, but they have no idea about kitchen table issues. No idea whatsoever.
The democrats need to spend more time with tradesmen, firies, cleaners, police officers, coal miners and other groups who are abandoning them.
Less Swifties, more Firies.
As for the “endless Trump” speculation: he will be President until Jan.20, 2029, and then it’s all over.
There won’t be any amendment to the Constitution. My understanding is it requires 2/3 rds of the Congress (ie House and Senate combined) to ratify, and then it needs 3/4’rs of the states to then approve.
So a 66.67% threshold in Congress, and a 75% threshold of the State Governors.
I mean, this is not going to happen.
meher baba,
I think Trump’s attitude to the Constitution is that it’s for ‘suckers and losers’. 🙂
I have a feeling that the Democrats should focus on getting their shit together for the 2026 midterms first. Oh, and also the Virginia/New Jersey 2025 elections as well.
Democrats did really bad in New Jersey this week, so they need to get a plan in motion for next year right now. At least they seem to have a strong incumbent Governor in Phil Murphy.
After their defeats in 2006 and 2008, the Republicans completely transformed themselves to come back to a roaring political force in 2010. That they only lost in 2012 was because Mitt Romney was such a weak candidate. The Democrats need to do a similar transformation from the ground up immediately.
Well they aren’t electing Kid Rock, that 80s wrestler, Mel Gibson, Buzz Aldrin, Dr Phil, Kelsey Grammer, Elon Musk, Dennis Quaid, Kanye, Randy Quaid, Amber Rose, etc etc. But these hollywood personalities all came out for Trump.
As for Dems need to spend more time with working class people, please look at Biden’s record in delivering for these folk.
Confessions @ #136 Saturday, November 9th, 2024 – 8:04 pm
But that’s the point, Biden did things, but he didn’t effectively make a narrative about it.
Franklin D. Roosevelt didn’t win 4 elections in a row by simply enact things and leave it at that. He did it by bringing voters along with him by effectively communicating with them. And it was damn hard for him at that, the Capital class hated him for it, in fact there was a plot to assassinate him on his first year in office.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_Plot
Biden and his administration simply failed to do that. They could have done something, like actually punish the leaders behind the January 6 insurrection for a start, but nothing came of that. He just effectively left the media landscape as it was in 2020 and the Republicans ran rings around him and his administration to leave things where they are now.
Kirsdarke…
Democrats did really bad in New Jersey this week, so they need to get a plan in motion for next year right now. At least they seem to have a strong incumbent Governor in Phil Murphy.
==================================================================
They did terribly in New Jersey. Perhaps Democrats on the East couldn’t stand the VP. Who knows.
As for “strong incumbent” Phil Murphy. Gosh, he barely won that state by less than 90000 votes, with a significant part of New Jersey making up the Western Suburbs of New York City.
The Democrats need to do quite a bit of transformation from the ground up.
Bellwether: more like a skidmark on some old school y fronts.
nadia88 @ #138 Saturday, November 9th, 2024 – 8:14 pm
The thing with New Jersey though is that in their unusual election dates of 1 year after the Presidential election, they pretty much always go against the incumbent party that holds the White House, which is a major reason why Chris Christie won it in 2009 and 2013.
That Phil Murphy managed to hold it in 2021 was thought of as something of an electoral miracle.
Ah, just read that Phil Murphy is actually term-limited, so another Democratic nominee will be needed for that.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_New_Jersey_gubernatorial_election
Hypothetical polling has Mikie Sherrill as a likely candidate, but that’s a thing to be decided next year.
That’s true. But this forum isn’t Women’s Weekly.
https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/biden-harris-working-class-vote-trump-election-rcna179186
And yet after all that they voted for Trump for some reason.
Exactly Kirsdarke, they did.
Apparently Biden and Harris did such a wonderful job, the workers rewarded them with a vote for Trump. Why? Well, Meher has tried to explain it numerous times.
People believe what they want to believe I suppose.
Anyway, the U.S. election is over and done with. Back to the main thread for me. Need some polls.
Kirsdarke @ #144 Saturday, November 9th, 2024 – 8:55 pm
They did. But I don’t think you can say it was because they weren’t hearing a message from Dems about what they would do on the economy. Harris narrowed the economy polling from Biden -18 to Harris -3.
That bullet could of changed history.Interesting whatever happens now may never of happened.
Fox has called Nevada -house -for Trump just now.
Oof!
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4981792-pod-save-america-bidens-internal-polling-showed-trump-winning-400-electoral-votes/
I guess you have to say that Kamala saved the furniture.
Final word.
Ven.
I know you’ve dropped off the blog/thread and are obviously disappointed with the recent U.S. election result. Don’t take it to heart too much. There will be mid term elections in 2 years time, where Trump will face his first test.
Take some time off – I was off the site myself during October – and others drop off from time to time too. It’s no big deal.
Take some time off, and then come back when you’re ready. Hopefully well before the Federal Election. I, and all other PB’ers, enjoy your posts.
Nadia.
One reason that I just heard of at the moment was that Conservatives hold their opponents in utter contempt. Just look at Sky After Dark and listen for under a minute about how much they utterly despise everything about enemies of the Right.
Meanwhile the Moderate-Liberal-Democratic system just doesn’t do the same. They’re petrified of it. They’re all about bipartisanship and comity. They’re going into a gunfight with kid gloves.
“Someone like Andy Beshear, who is the Governor of Kentucky.”
@Nadia
Kentucky is a funny one. They consistently vote Republican in the presidential election and Senate elections but the majority of the time elect a Democratic Governor. If Andy Beshear did win nomination. I think its plausible the Democrats win the general election but lose Kentucky. Bill Clinton did win the normally Red Arkansas both times when he was elected president. But I don’t see that home state advantage being enough for Beshear as the south militantly vote Republican these days. It wasn’t for Al Gore who lost his home state of Tennesse in 2000, but only lost it narrowly considering its usually staunch Republican.