12:13pm Sunday The Dem has taken the lead in California’s 45th by just 0.01%. But with late counting favouring the Dem heavily, he should increase his lead. I think this will be my last post on this thread.
1:47pm Saturday Small vote numbers today further reduced the Rep’s lead in California’s 45th to just 0.02%, while the Rep’s lead slightly increased to 1.1% in the 13th, but Dem-favouring counties in that district are undercounted. Overall, Reps lead in called races by 218-212. In the remaining five, Dems should win Ohio’s ninth and California’s 45th, the Reps should win Iowa’s first and Alaska’s only, with California’s 13th still undecided.
2:04pm Friday November 15 Today’s counting in California’s 13th broke heavily to the Dem, with the Rep lead reduced from 2.4% to 1.0% with 84% in. In the 45th, few votes were counted today, with the Rep holding a 0.08% lead with 93% in. If Reps lose both these seats, their House margin would be 220-215.
4:53pm The Reps have hit the 218 called seats needed for a House majority. But Trump wants three House Reps to serve in his administration, and Rep Matt Gaetz has already resigned, so there’ll need to be three by-elections in Rep-held seats. In most states, by-elections require a primary at which major party candidates are selected before the by-election itself, so it takes months to elect a new member.
12:36pm Thursday Reps lead in called House seats by 217-208. But one Rep seat lead in California is close to flipping to a Dem lead, with the Rep lead falling from 4% to 0.12% and 7% still remaining to be counted. Reps are likely to win all other seats they lead in, for a 221-214 majority.
2:56pm Wednesday The Reps lead in called House races by 216-207, with 218 needed for a majority. In Californian counting today, the 41st moved to the Dems, with Reps now only ahead by 0.8% after they led by 4% after election night. But other seats have the Reps holding steady. The Reps are virtually certain to win a House majority.
4:06pm Tuesday CNN has called the Arizona Senate contest for the Dem, giving the Reps a 52-47 lead. The Reps are very likely to win the last undecided Senate seat in Pennsylvania, where they have a 0.5% lead with 98% in.
In the House, Reps have a 214-205 lead in called races and an overall 222-213 lead. However, two Californian seats with narrow Rep leads moved to Dems in counting today. If Dems win both these seats, Reps would win the House by just a 220-215 margin.
2:26pm Monday The Dem will win the Arizona Senate contest, where he leads by 50.0-47.8 with 91% in. There hasn’t been much counting for the House today as it’s Sunday US time. Reps lead in called seats by 214-203, and they maintain a 222-213 overall lead.
In my Conversation article today on Newspoll, I said that Kamala Harris should have emphasised health care more, particularly Trump’s nearly successful attempt to repeal Obamacare in his first term.
3:43pm Sunday CNN has called Arizona for Trump, so he officially wins the Electoral College by 312 to 226. In the Arizona Senate, the Dem has increased his lead to 49.7-48.2 with 86% in. In the House, Reps lead in called races by 213-202. Today, Dems gained a lead in a Calif seat that Reps had previously led in, so Reps now lead in 222 seats to 213 for Dems. There are three more seats in Calif with current Rep leads by about 3%, which could be won by Dems.
4:42pm Saturday: CNN has called the Nevada Senate contest for the Democrat. In Arizona, the Dem leads by 49.5-48.4 with 82% in. In the House, Reps lead in called seats by 212-200. While a Californian seat has flipped to a Dem lead since yesterday, an Arizonan seat has flipped to a Rep lead. Reps still lead the House by 223-212.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
This post will be used to follow late counting in the US election. Donald Trump will win the last uncalled state in Arizona, and win 312 electoral votes to 226 for Kamala Harris. Trump leads the national popular vote by 50.7-47.7, with many more votes outstanding in Democratic strongholds like California. Before The New York Times Needle was turned off, its forecast was for Trump to win the popular vote by 1.5%.
You can read my latest on the big swings to Trump among Hispanics and young men at The Conversation. The Cook Political Report’s popular vote tracker shows the swings since 2020 by each state. Racially diverse states had the biggest swings to Trump.
In the Senate, Republicans have a 52-45 lead over Democrats (including allied independents) after gaining Ohio, Montana and West Virginia. Democrats have won or are leading in four of the five presidential swing states that held Senate elections (Pennsylvania the exception). If Republicans win the Senate by 53-47, Democrats could hope to recover it in 2026, when Republicans will be defending 21 of the 34 seats up.
Of the remaining contests, Republicans hold a 0.5% lead in Pennsylvania with 98% in, and Democrats hold a 1.3% lead in Nevada with 96% in. Arizona is the most interesting with Democrats holding a 1.7% lead with 74% in.
In the House of Representatives, Republicans lead Democrats in called races by 211 seats to 199. If Republicans win all the seats the currently lead in, they will win the House by 223-212. However, there are five seats Republicans lead by four points or less in California, where there is much late counting. So far California’s late counting has been good for Democrats.
If Democrats win the House or even get close, it would be despite a popular vote deficit in the Cook Political Report tracker of 51.6-46.9. While that gap will close on late counting, Republicans should still win by about 3%.
Irish election: November 29
Ireland uses the Hare-Clark proportional system that is used in Australia for Tasmanian and ACT elections. At this election there will be 174 members elected in 43 multi-member electorates. This election was called before it was due in March 2025.
Ireland has been governed for most of its history by one of two rival conservative parties: Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. After the 2020 election, these two parties formed a coalition government for the first time in Ireland’s history, with the Greens also included. The left-wing Sinn Féin had won the most votes in 2020 with 24.5%, the first time in almost a century that neither FG nor FF had won the most votes.
In Irish polls, SF support had surged to a peak of about 35% in May 2022, but since November 3023, SF support has slumped back to about 18%, behind both FF and FG. This election is likely to return the two conservative parties to a coalition government.
Left-wing parties to be routed at likely March German election
After the last federal German election in September 2021, a governing coalition was formed by the centre-left Social Democrats, the Greens and the pro-business Free Democrats. However, this government has now collapsed, and it’s likely the next German election will be held in March 2025, rather than September.
German polls have been terrible for the governing parties for a long time, and the conservative Christian Democrats are virtually certain to win the most seats. But they are unlikely to be able to form a coalition easily, given their opposition to dealing with the far-right Alternative for Germany.
Reposting the chart I made earlier of the current swings of each state in the Presidential vote.
Numbers might change here and there while remaining votes are counted and finalised in the next couple of weeks, but it was a swing to Trump in almost every state.
Good tipping these three posters – exactly on the mark.
As per Adrian’s leadup, it looks like Trump picks up Arizona as well.
The Banana Republic Trump 312 Harris 226
Diogenes Trump 312 Harris 226
out of sorts Trump 312 Harris 226
Thanks Kirsdarke,
Double digit swings to the Republicans in New York, New Jersey, Maryland & California.
Interesting.
Don’t think the previous thread realises a new thread has been created btw.
Depending on how much of a bin fire that thread is, that might not be a bad thing. (I’ve been avoiding the US threads.)
That German election should be interesting. On current polling the CDU might just be able to get a majority with the SPD (so another grand coalition like under Merkel), but if the two traditional parties of government can’t get 50% between them, things get weird. CDU and FDP usually go together, but considering the FDP looks like getting booted from parliament altogether (<5% threshold) that's a non-starter. It'll likely end up being a three-way coalition led by the CDU, which should be fun to sell considering how the current one's just flamed out.
The German states of Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg (all in the east) had elections last month, and both AfD (neo-Nazi) and BSW (left-wing but socially conservative) did well, with the Left (former East German communists) doing a lot less well – BSW are a breakaway faction of the Left and took a lot of votes from them, but also from AfD. Over a month later they're still negotiating how to get viable governments out of that mess. Whether something loopy like a CDU-SPD-BSW coalition is possible federally would depend on if they can make it work in those states.
It’s interesting looking at how redistributions work in Ireland. They don’t seem to like crossing boundaries of the traditional counties unless they have to, but have a varying number of seats per constituency (3, 4 or 5), so if a 5-seat one gets big enough for 6, it just gets split into two 3-seats without affecting adjacent constituencies.
Dublin Fingal (5 seats) becomes Dublin Fingal East and Dublin Fingal West (3 each)
Laois-Offaly (5 seats) becomes Laois and Offaly (3 each)
Tipperary (5 seats) becomes Tipperary North and Tipperary South (3 each)
Wexford and Wicklow are slightly more complicated: they’re adjacent, both currently 5 seats, and combined need 11 seats between them, so they get split into the existing two (4 seats each) and the new Wicklow-Wexford (3 seats).
Not like how we redraw maps here, but it makes a certain amount of sense. Also, they don’t have a specified size of parliament, so it can naturally grow bigger in line with population growth without having to mess around with which region grew faster or slower. The ration of MPs to population has to be between 20,000 and 30,000, which is pretty broad.
To be fair to Kamala, her personal campaign really did do the best they could. They kept the swing minimal in most of the battleground states, it could have been so much worse than it was. Imagine also losing Virginia, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico and even New Jersey on top of what states were flipped this time around.
The big fault is that the Democratic Party as a whole just doesn’t know how to reliably win elections anymore. They keep to their old tactics that only worked during the Bill Clinton and Obama years when the Republicans had utterly failed, while the Republican party just adapts and runs rings around them every other time.
Interested to take a sounding here:
Let’s say the world’s strongpersons (mainly men but let’s not forget Italy) are eagerly awaiting the official return of their role model in Trump, who in this SEA region would be most inclined to join that club?
(There’s a fairly compelling answer, but I’m fascinated by this as a blind spot in almost all media I see.)
alias @ #7 Friday, November 8th, 2024 – 11:57 pm
Lord Potatomort, pretty much.
Oh, but we mustn’t insult him like that, it would go against the neoliberal code of comity and bipartisanship to do so.
Fair point Kirsdarke, but he’s not who I had in mind. The chap I have in mind has bizarrely flown way under the radar in Australia but to my mind is most worrying.
Am hitting the hay, but I would note, there’s considerable kudos available for anyone able to identify the chap.
alias @ #9 Saturday, November 9th, 2024 – 12:03 am
Ah, I’m afraid I don’t know to whom you’re referring so you’ll have to say.
alias. You must mean Prabowo.
Am genuinely curious Kirsdarke, so I’ll leave the question open until Saturday’s light is upon us. I’ll post the answer here by noon Saturday. The failure is mainly by the media in this country, I would add.
Ah .. just as I am bed-bound MB takes the prize.
Alias: two years ago I would’ve said Duterte, but he’s not around any more.
The new guy in Indonesia? (Prabowo Subianto – I had to google that.) If he’s anything like Suharto, so he might be a worry.
This is the latest from the Economist on the matter (though they greatly underplay what a total thug he was in the 1990s):
Will Prabowo Subianto cosy up to Donald Trump or to China?
The first foreign trips for Indonesia’s new president’s raise awkward questions
In September 1985 analysts from the CIA puzzled over who might succeed Suharto, Indonesia’s dictator and a stalwart opponent of communism. If the old man stayed in power into the 1990s, they reckoned, then his son-in-law, Army Captain Prabowo Subianto, might be a plausible heir. American officials had already begun cultivating Mr Prabowo, inviting him to America to attend military courses. A Prabowo presidency, they reckoned, would keep Indonesia on their side.
The CIA’s wonks were not wrong about Mr Prabowo’s prospects—they were just early. In February’s presidential election, more than a quarter-century after Suharto fell from power and democracy returned to Indonesia, Mr Prabowo won a landslide victory. His win bore some resemblance to Donald Trump’s. They are both ageing yet irrepressible would-be strongmen, whose rhetoric is authoritarian but who have won power through free and fair elections. Last month Mr Prabowo took the oath of office. On November 8th he is due to make his first overseas trip as president.
First he will land in Beijing. His hosts in China are expected to pitch new investments in Indonesian infrastructure and, for the first time, a big arms deal between the two countries. Mr Prabowo will then visit Washington. Indonesian diplomats say he may also stop over in Florida to meet Mr Trump before going on to Latin America. Coming so soon after Mr Prabowo’s surprise decision for Indonesia to join the BRICS bloc last month, his early foreign-policy moves have rattled American diplomats. They appear to mark a shift towards China and away from the mostly non-aligned position taken by his predecessor, Joko Widodo (or Jokowi).
Relations between Indonesia and China remained icy for years after Suharto seized power in 1966—to disrupt what he alleged was an attempted communist takeover sponsored by China. It was not until 1990 that the two re-established diplomatic relations. And it was only after Suharto fell in 1998 that diplomacy between the two picked up pace. Economic and military links took even longer.
Jokowi came to office in 2014 with plans to develop transport infrastructure across the sprawling archipelago. At the same time officials in Beijing were cooking up China’s Belt and Road Initiative, an infrastructure-building scheme. Jokowi also pursued longtime Indonesian aims to use its market power in minerals such as nickel to persuade foreigners to process ore in-country before letting it be exported. These goals, most foreign investors had long told Indonesians, were unachievable due to the poor investment climate. No one would risk putting billions of dollars into a fixed asset in a country where the rule of law was not well established.
Chinese development banks, however, stepped into the breach. They funded railways, roads, airports and ports. Private Chinese investors then made deals to process minerals, particularly nickel, in Indonesia. By the end of Jokowi’s decade in office, China had become Indonesia’s most important investor (see chart). Indonesia had also become a leading processor of nickel ore used in batteries, a key part of the green energy supply chain.
Mr Prabowo thus inherits a strong economic relationship, which he seems set to expand. His brother, a billionaire businessman who has bankrolled his political aspirations, told a seminar last month that Mr Prabowo would pitch to Chinese state investors a $60bn sea wall to cover most of the north coast of Java, from the capital, Jakarta, to the second city, Surabaya, as great a distance as between Los Angeles and San Francisco. The first phase, worth $11bn, would protect just Jakarta, which suffers from severe flooding because of subsidence. Experts reckon the project will be a white elephant. China’s mandarins might balk at the sea-wall proposal, but it shows that Mr Prabowo, like Jokowi, is not too proud to go cap in hand to Beijing.
Mr Prabowo’s relationship with America is more complicated. In the waning days of his father-in-law’s rule he ordered his men to kidnap activists protesting against it. Some remain missing. Of those who returned, several claim that they were tortured, a charge Mr Prabowo denies. The Clinton administration sided with the activists, reportedly citing its obligations under the UN’s Torture Convention to deny him a visa in 2000. Only after Mr Prabowo became defence minister in 2019 did America change its mind. The re-election of Mr Trump, whose first administration lifted the visa ban, may ease co-operation.
Don’t look back in anger
The ban on Mr Prabowo was only one part of a broader American push to hold the Indonesian armed forces accountable for the role they played in suppressing democracy under Suharto. For years America refused to sell military equipment to Indonesia, leaving many of its F-16s inoperable for lack of spare parts. The arms embargo prompted Indonesia’s armed forces to look for alternative suppliers, to avoid excessive dependence on a single foreign supplier. As Jokowi’s defence minister, Mr Prabowo did deals with America, France, Italy, South Korea and Turkey, among others. Especially when it came to big-ticket items like jets and ships, Indonesia generally avoided buying Chinese kit.
Whether Mr Prabowo is willing to break this taboo in Indonesia’s relations with China is unclear. According to one person with knowledge of a proposal on the table, China is hoping to sell frigates and submarines. But Dino Patti Djalal, a former Indonesian diplomat, questions the wisdom of buying ships and boats from China while the two are engaged in a dispute over the rights to resources in a sliver of the South China Sea, where Indonesia’s claims to an exclusive economic zone overlap with China’s nine-dash line. Recently, Indonesian coastguard vessels have shadowed Chinese counterparts there.
More broadly, Mr Djalal worries that Indonesia could lose its reputation for staking out a position independent of either great power unless it is careful not to be seen as a Chinese proxy. “For a long time, America was the reference point,” he says, explaining that Indonesia was careful not to align too closely with Uncle Sam. “Now”, he says, “China is the reference point. They need to remember that.” ■
In a dead heat (going by the time stamp) Bird of Paradox also gets kudos.
He’s obviously not much of a worry to Albo because he didn’t bother to attend Prabowo’s inauguration.
Prabowo is taking things very slowly indeed in terms of his entry onto the world stage. He appears to be a figure of some substance: for good or for bad it’s too early to say.
MB: Albo’s failure to attend the inauguration was beyond belief. I’m very surprised Keating didn’t speak out publicly about it (unless I missed something).
Mark my words, Prabowo will amost certainly be a name on all our lips in fairly short order.
Hey I was one minute earlier! (Not that I’m a competitive person.)
Ah, okay, Prabowo.
I’m not quite sure if he’ll become an actual threat, just he has a lot of crossroad straddling between China and the US, and also the Islamic sphere in general because Indonesia is a Muslim nation, but yeah, I do feel concerned about him, particularly in how he took his losing election against Jokowi last time.
I hope you’re right Kirskarke. His conduct in the occupied territory of East Timor, where he earned his stripes, is deeply troubling and now almost forgotten. On your points, the Economist piece above is worth reading.
OK Meher Baba! You win the kudos. First past the post and all that.
Am hitting the hay.
alias: that Economist article reinforces my impression that his strongman reputation risks being undermined by his growing image as a bit of a toady to China. He’ll have a balancing act to perform, as ordinary Indonesians remain at best lukewarm in their attitudes towards China. Trump’s arrival on the scene doesn’t really make things any easier for him as Trump is so damn unpredictable. On the other hand, the Donald is far less likely to care than any other President if Prabowo decided to suspend democracy in Indonesia.
It’s going to be a challenge for Prabowo. Indonesians have turned to him in the absence of viable alternatives. He’s a bit of a blast from the past. Might come a cropper.
PA senate race was called by AP, Mathematically impossible for Casey, Don’t trust left-wing CNN?
Bob Casey and his Dem mates like Fetterman are a threat to democracy themselves for refusing to concede.
The GOP have gained the PA senate race, end of story. It is not ”undecided” Keep up with the news Will.
Fintan O’Toole is always good value.
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2024/11/08/fintan-otoole-on-election-2024-a-half-built-nation-goes-unhappy-to-the-polls/
Here he claims that the formation of the Fianna Fáil – Fine Gael coalition in 2020 was a final step in Irish independence as politics were no longer governed by a civil war that ended 100 years ago.
The government successfully got through Brexit and Covid and Ireland has achieved a degree of prosperity unimaginable in 1922 but the aim of this right wing parties must be to enlarging the middle class and here they fail through a cost of living crisis and lack of home affordability. The electorate is unhappy but will it take the only other course and go to the left with Sinn Féin?
I should have twigged when large numbers of Americans stood out on the street, some for days, waiting for the return of John Kennedy Jr, apparently from a faked air crash, that they wanted a royal family like Britain and other countries. Hence the embrace of Robert Kennedy Jr by Trump. He could make the connection in his salesman’s lizard brain. Give the suckers what they want!
And so we have the new first family of America, the Trumps. The new royal family that it seems America has craved to have again ever since the end of Camelot, maybe even ever since the end of getting rid of the lot from England. Call it Buyer’s Remorse and Trump, ever the super salesman, is just giving the market what it wants. And making a tidy profit from doing it.
Trump is also a toady to China. That will be exposed sooner rather than later. The braggadocio about tariffs on China won’t jive with the boot-licking of Xi by Trump. I mean, how will Trump make a profit on his stupid caps and other paraphernalia Made In China if he is true to his word? Which has never been a problem for him up till now and won’t again. Hypocrisy is a daily equation that he solves.
Kirsdarke @ #1 Friday, November 8th, 2024 – 10:17 pm
The Democrats need their own Super Salesman with a telegenic family. They need a better messenger. They need a better message.
I can see a way back from this but the Democratic Party need to look to the new generation and find the person who is out there, and they will be, that can take on the mantle of preserving Democracy in America.
Unless America wants to go back to a Monarchy, of course.
‘alias says:
Saturday, November 9, 2024 at 12:17 am
This is the latest from the Economist on the matter (though they greatly underplay what a total thug he was in the 1990s):
….’
=====================
Thanks. Should be mandatory reading for all Australians.
It’s time for Democrats to conduct a Latino vote autopsy.
https://greattransformation.substack.com/p/democrats-need-a-latino-vote-autopsy?r=305o&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true
Trump (and his administration) started the trade wars and policy of confrontation with China and that was *before* covid. Milley had to ensure that orders to the USN were also run by him to ensure that Trump didn’t attack China on his exit from office.
No, that 60% tariff has high priority and things between China and the US are probably going to become very tense very quickly.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/08/elon-musk-trump-zelensky-call/
I’m with her:
Pelosi criticizes Biden for ending campaign late and endorsing Harris
‘Speaking to the New York Times, Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic former House speaker who played a major role in the pressuring Joe Biden not to seek re-election, said she believed the president waited too long to exit the race, and erred in immediately endorsing Kamala Harris.
“Had the president gotten out sooner, there may have been other candidates in the race,” Pelosi said. Shortly after announcing in July that he would end his bid for a second term, Biden endorsed Harris, setting the stage for her to become the Democratic nominee. Harris went on to lose the presidential election to Donald Trump on Tuesday, and in the interview conducted two days later, Pelosi said Democrats would have benefited from a primary to choose their candidate.
“The anticipation was that, if the president were to step aside, that there would be an open primary,” she said.
“And as I say, Kamala may have, I think she would have done well in that and been stronger going forward. But we don’t know that. That didn’t happen. We live with what happened. And because the president endorsed Kamala Harris immediately, that really made it almost impossible to have a primary at that time. If it had been much earlier, it would have been different.”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2024/nov/08/us-election-live-donald-trump-cabinet-house-of-representatives
I’m waiting to see whether MElon Musk abandons his Climate Change solutions via EVs and Big Batteries. Trump prefers big, bad ICE cars that will take the petrol he wants to suck out of the ground.
The days of trashing Americans via the weak Dems are paused for four years.Dems failed as they are more interested in people overseas than their own people.
Sexist and racist the Dems have a lot of thinking to do.
What Will Harris Do Now? Next Steps After Election Defeat.
https://www.newsweek.com/what-will-kamala-harris-do-now-election-2024-next-moves-1982578
C@t:
Biden isn’t top of the ticket for my who’s to blame list. My list goes:
1. Mitch McConnell. He could’ve ensured Trump was convicted in early 2021 which would’ve prevented him from running for president again.
2. Merrick Garland. Seeing as McConnell wimped out on upholding the constitution, Garland’s rank incompetence in bringing charges against Trump is simple malfeasance in my view. Delay after delay after delay has allowed Trump to avoid justice.
3. Joe Biden. He declared he would be a transitional president, but seems to have been buoyed by the midterms in 2022 and egged on by his wife, decided to give it another go-around instead of allowing the party to have a proper primary ahead of the 2024 elections.
The Washington Post gets to the heart of it:
‘Could an iPhone cost $300 more under Donald Trump?’
🙂
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/11/08/apple-iphone-trump-tariffs-cost/
My guess is that people who can afford a new iPhone won’t care.
X/ Twitter: “What borders on insanity?” Canada and Mexico …
‘Fess,
However, Mitch McConnell is a Republican before he is a patriot. He doesn’t see things the way you and I do. He sees advantage for the Republican Party and the installation of their agenda first and foremost above anything else.
Merrick Garland I agree with. He was a sympathy pick by Biden after he lost out on a SCOTUS job due to McConnell. He was never a suitable pick to be AG he’s too much of a wimp. I hope he enjoys his non-productive retirement. It won’t be any different from his non-productive tenure. They should have chosen Jack Smith. He would have gotten things done QUICKLY.
Yes, Joe Biden allowed his ego, pumped up by his wife and his son, Hunter, to outweigh the good of the country. What is it with old men that they can’t realise that they are no longer the alpha bull and instead should be put out to pasture?
Dr D
Thank you for Billy McMahon’s trout speech on the last thread. What momentous days. Of course he gave it while Kissinger was secretly in China and 3 days before Nixon announced he would be visiting Beijing, which completely destroyed the Liberal China policy.
I was going to say the speech now seems quaint but I can imagine some of PB’s eminent Sinologists still saying something similar.
‘When a clown moves into a palace, he doesn’t become a king, the palace becomes a circus’.
Old Turkish Proverb
Interesting alias, re Indonesia. The interest extends (imo) to the Pacific and to the issue of subs. I’ve recently sunned myself in a place there with French speakers (not NewC). A large Chinese naval vessel was docked there for several days (we swam with some of them – funny lads but careful not to be too friendly). Two regions on our doorstep with potential for flux.
Worries and opportunities here. It is crystal ball stuff tho…. Adrian makes the point that the Dems could get the House and stay within reach of the senate for the mid terms. And Donolds populist promises may be hard to keep. The economic winds might help him initially, and he will consolidate power through democracy tampering but what if, in two years time, the Dems hold congress and Trump is unpopular? Will international peeps keep powders dry – wait and see?
fwiw, my geography has always been good but I had not been as aware as I should be of how close some of these Pacific islands are to Australia.
C@t:
I suppose it could’ve been worse. Biden could’ve stubbornly held on and sunk the Democrats even further.
Watching the Dems eat their own at the moment. Apparently it is the fault of:
1/ Biden according to Pelosi
2/ Harris according to Biden
3/ Harris and Biden according to Obama
4/ Obama according to Clinton(s)
5/ The Campaign according to everyone
6/ The Dems according to the voters
I suspect number 6 is probably closest to the truth. That the Dems forgot that it is the economy stupid shows that history is so often forgotten.
It’s hard to know if a month or more extra time would have helped Harris. She was always going to be tied to Biden’s term and it’s unpopularity. Biden not contesting at the primaries was the ideal time for him – or someone substantial should have contested against him, exposed him and won. Ugly. But might have worked.
Or, my thoughts at the time, that Harris should have used the excuse that she needed to focus on her job as VP and not accept the late nomination – letting someone run who was not associated with Biden’s term. Also not ideal.
MI
Please add….
7. The American people because they wanted to vote for Trump.
This wasn’t simply a protest vote against the Dems. People liked Trump. The wanted Trump. They either got sucked in by ridiculous promises or are fully onboard with his hateful rhetoric and clown face bravado.
I am not a believer in the ‘the electorate always get it right’. There are lessons the Dems can learn from their missteps in gov and from the way Trump won. But there are some things they should t change.
The populace likes charisma (Biden’s was getting thin before he became Potus). Good policies don’t sell themselves (Biden was hopeless from early on with this). Difficult headwinds beyond your control aren’t facts everyone willingly accepts. Facts don’t sell themselves – everything is contestable and this needs to be contested at all levels.
And…. You can’t just let things roll on because it’s too hard or you are terrified of unforeseen adverse consequences. Small target strategies have risks too (Biden was actually OK with this, he was doing some things).
Imo
TK
When asked the issues of the Biden administration that she would have handled differently – she said none. When asked what would be the first legislation she would send to Congress, she could not answer.
An empty campaign that allowed an easy win to someone whose personal and political life would normally exclude from office
There’s some very ugly shit on X about Latinos, presumably from people who wanted Harris to win.
Not sure why you’d blame Latinos. Besides, it isn’t conducive to winning them back.
I wouldn’t call it an empty campaign. Harris ran a textbook campaign that any other candidate for president would run.
People just wanted to vote for Trump. Not much you can do about that.