Live Commentary
11:31am In the House, three uncalled races have only two Dem candidates and one has only two Rep candidates. Adding those to called seats gives Reps a 205-190 lead over Dems with 218 needed for a majority.
9:48am Thursday Trump is very likely to win the last two uncalled states in Arizona and Nevada, for a 312-226 Electoral College victory. That would give him all his 2016 states plus Nevada. In the national popular vote, Trump leads currently by 50.9-47.4. The NYT needle gave him a 1.5% popular vote margin in its forecast.
In the Senate, Republicans have a 52-44 lead over Democrats with four races undecided. An independent who caucuses with Dems will win Maine, Reps lead narrowly in Pennsylvania and Nevada with some votes outstanding, and Dems lead narrowly in Arizona with many votes outstanding.
In the House, Reps lead Dems by 204-186 with 45 uncalled. A majority is achieved with 218 seats, so Reps are well ahead.
9:46pm In the House, Republicans currently lead by 196 to 176 with 218 needed for a majority. Many undecided seats are in California and other states with mail to count.
9:37pm CNN has called a Trump win in Wisconsin, where he leads by 49.8-48.8 with 99% counted. This puts him over the 270 electoral votes needed; he now has 276. However, that last count from Wisconsin has put the Dem ahead in the Senate, and the Dem will win that seat.
6:20pm Here’s my article for The Conversation on today’s results. The polls understated Trump again, and he performed particularly well in racially diverse states compared to 2020.
4:34pm The NY Times says Florida, New Jersey and New York, which all have diverse racial populations, are likely to shift 9-10 points more Republican compared with 2020.
4:22pm The NY Times has called a Republican win in the Senate, with a 51-42 current lead over Democrats. Republicans are currently leading in another four states that haven’t been called. This may get very ugly for Democrats.
2:55pm The NY Times needle now gives Trump an 87% chance of winning, and has him winning in all of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. It’s also looking grim for Democrats in both the Senate and House.
1:51pm The NY Times needle overall now gives Trump a 70% chance of winning the Electoral College, with Trump at a 56% chance to win Pennsylvania. Once again, the US polls appear to have understated Trump. The national popular vote prediction is Harris by 0.3 points.
1:18pm Trump now has a 76% win prob according to the NY Times Needle in both Georgia and NC. Harris will need to sweep Michigan, Wisconsin and Penn, all states in which her win prob is currently about 50-50.
1:04pm Texas has been called for Trump and he now leads Harris by 154 electoral votes to 27. It’s not a good sign for Harris that Illinois and New York haven’t been called for her as soon as polls closed.
12:57pm In CNN’s map, Trump has won 105 electoral votes to 27 for Harris. The NY Times Needle gives Trump a 72% chance in Georgia and a 62% chance in N Carolina. In Pennsylvania, Trump has a 52% chance. Harris’ margins are likely to be reduced from Biden 2020 in Virginia and New Hampshire.
12:31pm The NY Times Needle is working. It gives Trump a 71% chance to win Georgia, 57% in North Carolina and 52% in Pennsylvania.
12:27pm With 50% reporting in Georgia, Trump leads by 55-44. It’s difficult to see Harris pulling back that lead.
12:05pm With all polls now closed in Florida, Trump is called the winner. He now leads Harris by 90 electoral votes to 27, with 270 needed to win.
11:58am In completed Georgian counties so far, there’s a small shift to Trump. Harris will need good numbers in more urhan regions.
11:47am NY Times says Trump getting swings in his favour in completed counties so far in Kentucky and Indiana. But these are rural counties.
11:40am A suburban Indiana county has Trump’s margin down from 18% since 2020 to 10% with 91% reporting.
11:35am Harry Enten on CNN says Harris is running about 0.5 points behind Biden in mostly completed counties so far.
11:33am Trump has a small lead in Virginia with 2% in. Rural counties tend to report faster in that state.
11:22am With 53% counted in Florida, Trump leads by 53.8-45.3. Trump wins Miami Dade county (a strongly Hispanic county in south Florida) by 55-44 with 70% in.
11:10am Kentucky has been called for Trump and Vermont for Harris. With 18% already in in Florida, Trump leads by 52-47.
10:16am The first results are in from Kentucky and Indiana, and Trump has big leads as expected in those states. These states are split across time zones, and won’t be called until 11am. CNN has the results.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
The first polls for the US presidential election close at 10am AEDT today, with polls in the key states closing from 11am. See Monday’s guide in The Conversation for more information on poll closing times and whether initial results in a state will favour Kamala Harris or Donald Trump relative to the final results.
In Nate Silver’s final aggregate of national polls, Harris has a 48.6-47.6 lead over Trump (48.5-47.8 in my Conversation article on Monday). Harris’ national lead peaked on October 2, when she led by 49.4–45.9. In presidential elections, the Electoral College is decisive, not the national popular vote.
Trump “leads” by 0.1 points in Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes),. With a 0.6-point lead in Nevada (six), one-point leads in North Carolina (16) and Georgia (16) and a 2.4-point lead in Arizona (11), Trump leads in the Electoral College by 287-251. If Harris wins Pennsylvania, she most likely wins the Electoral College by a narrow 270-268. Harris leads by one point in Wisconsin (ten) and Michigan (15).
There’s been a little late surge to Harris in win probabilities. Silver’s model gives Harris a 50% chance to win (Trump had a 53% win probability on Monday), while FiveThirtyEight also gives her a 50% chance. It’s a coin flip election, and if the polls are not completely accurate, one candidate could win decisively.
Harris needs at least a two-point win in the national popular vote to be the Electoral College favourite in Silver’s model. Silver’s model is forecasting Harris wins the popular vote by 2.1 points (it aggregates state polls for this result instead of relying on national polls). There’s a 27% chance that Harris wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College.
Congressional elections will also be held concurrently. All of the House of Representatives is up for election every two years; its 435 single-member seats are distributed on a population basis. Republicans won a 222-213 House majority at the 2022 midterm elections. The FiveThirtyEight aggregate of polls of the national House race gives Democrats a 46.3-45.6 lead over Republicans, a drop for Republicans from a 46.2-46.1 Democratic lead last Thursday.
There are two senators for each of the 50 states, and senators have six-year terms with one-third up every two years. Democrats and allied independents have a 51-49 Senate majority, but are defending 23 of the 33 regular seats up, including three in states Trump won easily in 2016 and 2020.
Republicans are certain to gain West Virginia and very likely to gain Montana, where they have a seven-point lead in FiveThirtyEight averages. In Ohio, a late swing to Republicans has them 0.7 points ahead after Democrats led by 1.6 points last Thursday. Republicans have a two-point lead against an independent in Nebraska, while Democrats have a two-point lead in Wisconsin. In all other states, the incumbent party is at least three points ahead. If the polls are correct, Republicans will gain West Virginia, Montana and Ohio and take a 52-48 Senate majority.
Since last Thursday, Democrats have gained in the FiveThirtyEight House forecast, but Republicans in the Senate. Democrats have a 51% chance to gain control of the House, up from 47% Thursday. But Republicans have a 92% chance to gain control of the Senate, up from 89%.
Omar Comin’ @ #42 Wednesday, November 6th, 2024 – 6:58 am
I just learned recently that IV Vitamin drips are a thing at ‘Cosmetic Clinics’ (I could be hooked up to one if I wanted it down the road and around the corner, it’s that ubiquitous), so I’m guessing that Don Old would be partial to some B Vitamins to give him some beans so he can spend the day hitting the phones. Being a geriatric and all and having a woeful diet. 🙂
meher baba @ #49 Wednesday, November 6th, 2024 – 7:07 am
meher baba, they’re all like it. Trust me. It’s just that some of them believe Trump’s malarkey.
”
C@tmommasays:
Wednesday, November 6, 2024 at 7:09 am
Omar Comin’ @ #42 Wednesday, November 6th, 2024 – 6:58 am
I saw a rumour that Raffensperger has already rejected six phone calls from Trump today
I just learned recently that IV Vitamin drips are a thing at ‘Cosmetic Clinics’ (I could be hooked up to one if I wanted it down the road and around the corner, it’s that ubiquitous), so I’m guessing that Don Old would be partial to some B Vitamins to give him some beans so he can spend the day hitting the phones. Being a geriatric and all and having a woeful diet.
”
I have suspicion that Trump must have pumped a lot pills during this campaign.
Update:
Maybe it’s just the stuff I watch but I think that Harris will win comfortably today. There is a lot of doubt about the polling system in the USA so who knows but the vibe is that Trump is dying in the arse. His rallies seem to be falling flat and he is rambling like Jimmy Jones. But what has amazed me is how a lot of conservative Australians think he’s great like some USA version of an LNP type guy when he is actually a RW autocrat. He has definitely moved the dial and unfortunately I can see the chaos he represents being around for a lot longer even if he isn’t.
The Rest is Politics US is as good as anything to watch.. on now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sAmC9FDX4aE
Wisconsin allows election day voter registration and voting.
Wisconsin early voting numbers: 1.592 million
It looks like Jeff Bezos’ kowtowing to Trump was for nothing, as was to be expected:
Trump Bans Amazon Reporter From Election Party Despite Bezos Kissing the Ring
Tara Palmeri was scheduled to broadcast live for the Brian Williams special from Donald Trump’s Palm Beach election party.
The Trump campaign threw a spanner in the works of Amazon’s first-ever Election Night special with Brian Williams by barring the reporter who was primed to broadcast live from the former president’s Palm Beach headquarters.
Former ABC News White House correspondent Tara Palmeri, now senior political correspondent for Puck, was told at the eleventh hour that she wouldn’t be getting her credentials to cover the event.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-bans-amazon-reporter-tara-palmeri-from-mar-a-lago-election-party-despite-jeff-bezos-kissing-the-ring/
What a bunch of thin-skinned prima donnas!
Thanks alias. I can already feel my stomach acidifying… Maybe I’ll go for a walk. It must be at least 12 hours to go before things get real. Good luck everyone.
10am our time for the first results is it ? How crazy is it that they have spent 3.5bn on this election – it’s getting expensive even for us billionaires to have their voice heard.
Okay, my prediction FWIW:
Harris 332
Trump 206
Lars Von Trier @ #61 Wednesday, November 6th, 2024 – 7:24 am
And that’s a good thing. 😐
Let’s hope the USA don’t scuttle hopes to avoid runaway climate change by voting for drill baby drill psycho trump. Politicians talk out both sides of their mouth about climate change, but it will be game over for future climate negotiations globally if Trump wins today.
Even more bizarre that trump could win and make billions off the djt media share price.
I honestly thought the switch to Harris would finish off Trump, it’s unbelievable he’s still competitive after 8 years and all the dramas , batshit crazy comments etc still not long to know the result.
Nothing has changed from my perspective
All on track for a Harris landslide!
Confessions says:
Wednesday, November 6, 2024 at 7:11 am
Republican turnout in Clark County less than 30%. This suggests the core Trump vote will be around 26%. 40% of those voting are Independent. They should break around 2:1 for Harris, maybe more. So this cohort will deliver another 12-13 points for Trump. That is, the vote for Harris/Trump on election day in Clark County will be around 60/40…maybe slightly better than that for Harris. Projecting this ….Harris wins Nevada. If she wins Nevada she will also win Arizona.
Seeing record high voting in Philadelphia, it’s very likely that Harris has already also won Pennsylvania. Considering the gender gap in Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina, she’s also won these States too.
Harris has won.
Easily. Very very easily. By tonight Florida and Texas among others will also be blue.
I’m watching this. Scroll to the 28.30 minute mark if you want to avoid the wonk behind the scenes talk and get straight to the commentary.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8FZT_dWf064
Well if Harris wins South Carolina that’s a landslide.
No one has had SC on the radar.
Exit Polls can start from 9am our time..
Exit polls are conducted on behalf of the National Election Pool (NEP), which is made up of members of major news organizations, including NBC.
What is an exit poll?
An exit poll is research conducted by scientific organizations of voters as they “exit” their polling places, along with telephone and other research done.
Who conducts exit polls?
Edison Research works in conjunction with the NEP to conduct the official exit polls. Edison Research is the sole exit pole data provider for the NEP.
The members of the NEP do not release any exit polls results before 5 p.m. ET.
“Participants in the NEP do not report any exit poll results before 5 p.m. ET on Election Day, and no exit poll results that can be indicative of the outcome of a race get reported until after all the polls are scheduled to close in a state,” according to NBC News.
What is an exit poll and why does it matter?
The exit poll is a survey of voters conducted as they exit their polling places. It is the only survey measure of real voters and it’s conducted at hundreds of polling places. The exit poll also includes extensive interviews with in-person early voters and telephone surveys of early and absentee voters. Edison Research is the sole provider of exit poll data to the NEP.
How does NBC ensure accuracy?
Analysts inspect results and look for irregularities or inconsistencies with past voting behavior. If data seems irregular, a rigorous quality control process is triggered to determine if results are correct.
What is the National Election Pool?
The NEP is a consortium of major news networks — ABC, CBS, CNN and NBC — that pools together resources to gather vote and exit poll data. The NEP works with the consumer research firm Edison Research to collect timely and comprehensive election data on Election Day and in the following days, weeks and months until results are certified by all states. The NEP licenses data to several news outlets, including Reuters.
How does NBC project races?
Early on election night, analysts use exit poll data to determine if a race can be called. They continue to examine exit polls but as the night goes on, they also consider precinct- and county-level model results and county and statewide raw vote returns.
NBC News will not project a winner in a race until after the last scheduled poll closing time in that state.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/how-election-data-is-collected
Since lot of PB folks predicted the US Presidential result
Here are 13 times right-wingers totally whiffed election predictions
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/11/5/2282568/-Here-are-13-times-right-wingers-totally-whiffed-election-predictions?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=top_news_slot_2&pm_medium=web
Stooge & Victoria.
I would like to share your enthusiasm and hope that your predictions, based on Clark County turnout, so far, come to realisation.
One can only hope for a Harris landslide and that those who vote for her also give the Democrats their Congressional & Senate votes,too!
“If Trump wins, I’ll probably go troppo. Worse luck, I’ve got minor surgery tomorrow so I can’t drink any grog.”
That’s a bit of a myth. One or two glasses is okay. You might need them.
Oh, im sure Trump is on the juice.
s.snail
I don’t like the way we reference ‘runaway climate change’. It suggests we can manage just fine at +2 or +2.5 so long as tipping points arent tipped.
+2 is a significant threat on its own to human wellbeing on this planet. Economically, peace and security, socially. RW nuts like to say the Greens want to take us back to the Stone Age, well, climate change at +2.5 could take us back to the dark ages. No runaway needed.
CNN is showing huge queue in Philadelphia, PA, running atleast around a km.
From memory, Biden got about 80% in Philadelphia in 2020 and the black population is about 40%
Lars Von Trier @ #65 Wednesday, November 6th, 2024 – 7:27 am
Circuses and clowns haven’t died a death either. People find comfort in the predictable and laughable.
So Bibi Netanyahu takes the opportunity of US election distraction to sack his Defence Minister.. big protests in Tel Aviv streets
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel fired his defense minister, Yoav Gallant, on Tuesday over differences on the prosecution of the war in Gaza — a risky step at a moment when Israel is fighting on two fronts.
Mr. Gallant was pushing for a cease-fire deal in Gaza that would secure the release of hostages, and his dismissal removes the main proponent in the government for such an agreement. Mr. Gallant and Mr. Netanyahu also clashed over domestic political issues, particularly the conscription of ultra-Orthodox Israelis.
Mr. Netanyahu’s decision to sideline Mr. Gallant, who had developed close ties with U.S. officials, is a risky step for the prime minister, taken while Israel is waging war on two fronts. But Mr. Gallant had increasingly been viewed as an internal opponent, and he has been a more moderate voice within the government on security issues.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/05/world/middleeast/netanyahu-fires-gallant.html
I amend my previous prediction to Trump 272 – 266 Harris.
Good luck re your operation, tomorrow, meher baba.
Taylor Swift posted earlier today on TikTok..
https://www.threads.net/@grillnatty/post/DB_r7FTOcwN?xmt=AQGz4Dd33bUXuGlLm96SdaoY6bh2i53oTg1pGZ9rprwFOw
Dio gives us older bludgers the first good news of the day!
Not that I’ve started on the minor surgery trail yet. But it might not be far off.
Do you need to tell them Dio?
on holiday I was gonna give up coffee and alcohol to see if it improved my BP and Heart Rate. I didn’t give them up (I don’t abuse either anyway). But 12 days on a beach dropped both metrics by 10! FMD. I need a different job.
Oh mb, yes, break a leg and speedy recovery.
Macca RB
Cheers!
I honestly thought the switch to Harris would finish off Trump
—————————
Before we get to hindsight, I want to say I think she did very well (better than I’d hoped). Had she more time I suspect she would have done better still.
The VP decision wasn’t a bad one. Walz did OK with something that doing better probably makes little difference.
What hindsight might suggest is the dude from Kansas could have been a wise and rabbit-out-o-the-hat choice. But Walz made perfect sense. The Kansas bloke best kept for a primary for POTUS.
I know this is just another straw for the Left to desperately cling on to, but a source does say that even though Trump is a 62% favourite on American betting markets, the really big bets are on Harris. There are just so many smaller bets on Trump.
Long lines do not augur well for Harris. This means that there is a lot of on the day vote which will be overwhelmingly for Trump.
It’s expected to be 28 Celsius in Pittsburgh (and tomorrow in New York) – in NOVEMBER. A rogue natural variation on the level of Ann Selzer’s career-ending poll. Lots of voters turning up in the nearly-winter sun will mean Trump has a field day and election can be called well before bedtime here in California.
I agree, team katich, perhaps it is that there will not be any international agreement that can mitigate what is already baked in, so it is more that any hope to reduce emissions to make any difference is scuttled if Trump gets back in
NYT saying Georgia and NC will prob be decided first of the 7 states that matter.
A big turnout means something very important. We will know what sort of people the US is really made of now. It will be a reliable test result of the character of the place. No hiding behind voluntary voting or low informed voters excuses.
Lars Von Trier says:
Wednesday, November 6, 2024 at 7:35 am
Well if Harris wins South Carolina that’s a landslide.
No one has had SC on the radar.
I certainly do. South Carolina, Florida, Louisiana, Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, Indiana, the Dakotas, Nebraska, Alaska….relatively low hanging fruit. The Republican Party is split. Trump is a past losing candidate and without any question is the worst POTUS candidate ever proposed by a major Party in US political history. American women and new immigrant communities will vote overwhelmingly to rid themselves of the toxic cretin, Donald Trump and to punish the Republicans. Done deal.
Stephen Leuchtman
@leuchtman
Ok, so we did a last Montana poll. I’ve shut off replies.
Here’s the details:
10/31-11/3 n=766 MOE +/- 3.54%
53-47 f/m
28D-36R-36I
Top lines
President:
Trump 51 Harris 39 Other 5
US Senate:
Tester 49 Sheehy 45 Daoud 4
6:18 PM · Nov 4, 2024
·
822.8K
Views
Dio
Georgia closes at 11am our time, NC at 11.30am – expecting exit polls, as well as early count tallies.
Trump needs both to stay in the race.
I kept telling people to not rule out Tester. Come on big man!
I have $400 on Harris at varying prices between $1.80 and the current $2.50.
My views probably align with many.
Trump has a solid base, but he’s been campaigning to them and them only. He’s also not appealing to the moderate Republicans, especially with the tariff talk which will only increase proces for Americans. He’s put all his eggs in the same basket and this will not be enough to win.
Harris has campaigned well and has taken a route for broader appeal.
That said, I think Roe Vs Wade being repealed is the underlying issue that is at play. Americans love their freedom (apparently) and the SCOTUS has allowed Republican states to restrict or remove that freedom.
Women will be the silent majority in this election.
DJT stocks crashing.
Sleepless night, worrying whether it will be a new dawn or a return to the dark ages.
I had Georgia and NC for Harris. But losing MI. If Rust Belt is close then yeah, long night even if Harris wins Georgia and NC (unless the optimism from some around Florida is well founded).
The NBC streaming coverage is not bad..
https://www.youtube.com/live/eFCiva4m3Zk?si=Y5ndwdrezsz69wCB
ToorakToff: Depends on your perspective. If you’re from mainstream society, it will be the former. If you’re from the Left, it will be the latter – and an understatement.
Scromoll: “Long lines do not augur well for Harris. This means that there is a lot of on the day vote which will be overwhelmingly for Trump.
It’s expected to be 28 Celsius in Pittsburgh (and tomorrow in New York) – in NOVEMBER. A rogue natural variation on the level of Ann Selzer’s career-ending poll. Lots of voters turning up in the nearly-winter sun will mean Trump has a field day and election can be called well before bedtime here in California.”
——————————————————————————
What a load of crap. If it was freezing weather and there were short queues, you’d be posting that that was good for Trump as well.
DJT stocks are not a reliable indicator. Meme stock and prone to manipulation.
Also, there would be some realisation that if Trump loses, the value of the stock becomes near zero. So some smarter DJT stock money would be taken out for some hedging somewhere.