Morgan: 50.5-49.5 to Labor (open thread)

Morgan also finds support for the monarchy at a high in the wake of the royal visit, while RedBridge offers federal voting intention results from Queensland.

Moving on from Queensland, up to a point, three items of polling to relate:

• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor’s two-party lead in from 52-48 to 50.5-49.5, from primary votes of Labor 30% (down two), Coalition 37.5% (up one), Greens 14% (up half) and One Nation 5.5% (steady). Based on 2022 election flows, Labor leads 51.5-48.5, in from 53-47. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1687.

• Roy Morgan also has a result on republicanism that points to the brittleness of the support for the concept that polls generally record when the issue is out of the limelight. In the wake of the royal visit, a forced-response SMS poll of 1312 respondents conducted last Tuesday and Wednesday broke 57-43 in favour of retaining the monarchy.

• RedBridge Group has a timely result of federal voting intention from Queensland (hat tip to comments regular Nadia88) that has Labor on 28%, compared with 27.4% at the 2022; the Coalition at 41%, compared with 39.6%; the Greens at 13%, compared with 12.9%; and One Nation at 10%, compared with 7.5%. The poll was conducted several weeks ago, from October 4 to 16, from a substantial sample of 2315, and the full release contains detailed demographic breakdowns. It also finds Anthony Albanese on 34% approval and 53% disapproval; Peter Dutton on 39% and 42%; Steven Miles on 35% and 35%; and David Crisafulli on 40% and 31%.

• If you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can read my review of the Queensland election wash-up.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,896 comments on “Morgan: 50.5-49.5 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. Department of Parliamentary Services acting secretary Jaala Hinchcliffe has confirmed the National Anti-Corruption Commission raided her department’s offices in Parliament House last month as part of an ongoing investigation. “I can confirm that the NACC executed warrants on the Department of Parliamentary Services,” she said. “Any questions about this activity and any investigation that the NACC might be undertaking should be referred To the NACC as I am conscious that discussing matters may inadvertently identify persons of interests, prematurely damage reputations and/or compromise an individual’s right to impartial adjudication.

  2. Federal police have entered PwC Australia’s headquarters in Sydney as they investigate whether secrecy laws were broken when a partner disclosed confidential government information to clients and others at the firm. Officers entered the office in Barangaroo early on Monday as part of an arranged visit and will examine documents and computers as part of their inquiries. One person familiar with the Australian Federal Police investigation said officers were now focused on four former PwC partners

  3. Why does William “expect” the election to be held in May?

    It won’t be May unless the PM wants to lose and is stupid enough to wait until then.

  4. Holdenhillbilly says:
    Monday, November 4, 2024 at 12:31 pm
    Department of Parliamentary Services acting secretary Jaala Hinchcliffe has confirmed the National Anti-Corruption Commission raided her department’s offices in Parliament House last month as part of an ongoing investigation. “I can confirm that the NACC executed warrants on the Department of Parliamentary Services,” she said. “Any questions about this activity and any investigation that the NACC might be undertaking should be referred To the NACC as I am conscious that discussing matters may inadvertently identify persons of interests, prematurely damage reputations and/or compromise an individual’s right to impartial adjudication.

    ————————————————-

    Even though the Department of Parliamentary Services (DPS) is fully funded by the taxpayer it isn’t subject to Freedom of Information requests.

    I wonder why? What else are politicians or public servants hiding from us?

    Because of a change then frontbencher Anthony Albanese made more than a decade ago, DPS isn’t subject to freedom of information requests so estimates is one of the rare chances to glean public information.

    In 2013, Albanese said it was to be a temporary measure only. Seems Albanese has many secrets hidden from Australians.

  5. “Federal police have entered PwC Australia’s headquarters in Sydney as they investigate whether secrecy laws were broken when a partner disclosed confidential government information to clients and others at the firm. Officers entered the office in Barangaroo early on Monday as part of an arranged visit and will examine documents and computers as part of their inquiries. One person familiar with the Australian Federal Police investigation said officers were now focused on four former PwC partners”

    When will ASIC do a similar raid for breaches of the Corporations Act. There are plenty of Companies within PwC that come under the remit of the Corporations Act. Don’t be fooled, PwC has numerous companies in the umbrella of the firm. Just look at the Australia Business Number register. Everyone in the Senate inquiry seemed to miss this and ASIC has been asleep at the wheel.

  6. ‘Daniel says:
    Monday, November 4, 2024 at 1:50 pm

    Why does William “expect” the election to be held in May?

    It won’t be May unless the PM wants to lose and is stupid enough to wait until then.’
    ========================
    The obvious answer is that Albanese is the first prime minister in a decade who tries to to deliver on his election promises, one of which was to run a government to full term.
    Not rocket science.

  7. Irene says:
    Monday, November 4, 2024 at 1:51 pm

    …
    ===================
    If you really want 100% secrecy go no further than the CCP’s ‘management’ of information. People disappear all the time after saying something in public that Xi did not want to hear.
    Your benchmark for secrecy?

  8. Irene says,

    “In 2013, Albanese said it was to be a temporary measure only. Seems Albanese has many secrets hidden from Australians.”

    I recall that Tony Abbott won the election in late 2013. Did not he, Turnbull or Morrison have the opportunity to change this situation? Or did they change it and Albanese changed it back again? Or are all governments culpable?

  10. The NACC is investigating 29 cases of alleged corruption, having had to sieve through huge numbers of referrals.

    It has huge powers for gaining evidence.

    I am 100% confident that people will end up in their rightful place behind bars as a result of the activities of the NACC.

  11. An “arts degree” that is not partnered with something more STEM related is a lifestyle choice and is not deserving of public subsidy, as the study of “humanities” can no longer be detached from scientific and technical capabilities. A “fine arts” degree at least teaches you how to make something.

  12. ‘Bizzcan says:
    Monday, November 4, 2024 at 2:26 pm

    An “arts degree” that is not partnered with something more STEM related is a lifestyle choice and is not deserving of public subsidy, as the study of “humanities” can no longer be detached from scientific and technical capabilities. A “fine arts” degree at least teaches you how to make something.’
    ======================
    Is history really that dead?

  13. “Allegra Spender, the independent member for Wentworth, wants an end to free airline upgrades and says she has cancelled her Qantas and Virgin VIP lounge memberships.”

    Sir Humphrey called it “Operation Hairshirt” in Yes Minister, S01E03 “The Economy Drive”.

  14. Wow, the Graun’s politics live blog has really suffered without Amy Remeikis. I know it’s tory Shepherd’s first day but it’s been dreadful, and the QT coverage is a total waste of time

    Amy was one of a kind though and IMO a national treasure

  15. Boerwar says:
    Monday, November 4, 2024 at 2:34 pm

    ‘Bizzcan says:
    Monday, November 4, 2024 at 2:26 pm

    An “arts degree” that is not partnered with something more STEM related is a lifestyle choice and is not deserving of public subsidy, as the study of “humanities” can no longer be detached from scientific and technical capabilities. A “fine arts” degree at least teaches you how to make something.’
    ======================
    Is history really that dead?
    _________________________________________________

    The opposite in fact, new historical discoveries and developments are being powered by technologies like AI, everything from interpreting unreadable ancient scrolls to modeling ancient cities (physically, economically, institutionally). Even social studies on modern issues are increasingly demanding higher levels of computer and programming literacy with research being backed by data driven evidence.

    Humanities was always sold as “teaching you how to think”, but in the modern digital world STEM “teaches you how to do”. Even in an academic/research environment the time of wistfully staring at ruins have long past.

  16. Bizzcan , you are an uneducated idiot.

    An “arts degree” teaches critical thinking, independent research, how to evaluate evidence and come to logically argued conclusions. It also teaches skills just as using language to express ideas, adhering to timelines, keeping to word counts, referencing etc.

    It can also teach history, as Boerwar noted, and I suggest history might show that a literate and educated population is healthy for a democratic society.

    For cost of an Arts Degree you get a library card and with it access to an international data base of peer reviewed journal articles. And the shittiest lecture halls in the university but hopefully some good lecturers. The cost is outrageous. Unless the aim is to deliberately dumb down the next generation of citizens.

  20. Rossmcgsays:
    Monday, November 4, 2024 at 3:22 pm

    No questions about Qantas upgrades.

    A one-week wonder?

    Coalition didn’t like the scrutiny on themselves that came with prosecuting it.
    Seems like the story is dying down a bit – expect a new drop from Aston soon.

  26. Arts degrees are literally the only Degrees that will teach you Critical Thinking. If you think that’s important, then you should support them. If you don’t then I’m sorry but you might be a rube.

  27. If Spender was fair dinkum she would move her Syd-Cbr/Syd-Mel travel to NSW Trains.

    Some how I don’t think so! What a humbug!

  28. @Billie, you can see Remeikis’ sign off from the 10th here; .

    I don’t have an instagram so can’t see her posts but the page summary on google for her gram (@pyjamapolitics) says “I’m still going to be covering Australian poolitics, but taking a side step from daily news for the moment. I’ll be doing commentary and covering parliament and…”

  29. Eddy says:
    Monday, November 4, 2024 at 3:18 pm

    Bizzcan , you are an uneducated idiot.

    An “arts degree” teaches critical thinking, independent research, how to evaluate evidence and come to logically argued conclusions. It also teaches skills just as using language to express ideas, adhering to timelines, keeping to word counts, referencing etc.

    It can also teach history, as Boerwar noted, and I suggest history might show that a literate and educated population is healthy for a democratic society.

    For cost of an Arts Degree you get a library card and with it access to an international data base of peer reviewed journal articles. And the shittiest lecture halls in the university but hopefully some good lecturers. The cost is outrageous. Unless the aim is to deliberately dumb down the next generation of citizens.

    ______________________________________

    LOL, the 1980s called and it wants that library card back!

    If you think “how to evaluate evidence” does not include interrogating data driven mathematical models, built off increasingly complex computer programs, using inputs that are as much statistical probabilities as real observations … then I think we have slightly different definitions of “deliberately dumbing down” our fellow citizens.

    Or perhaps to put it more directly, I think that choosing a pure-play humanities degree is choosing to be bamboozled by the modern digital and technology driven world.

  30. banquo911@3:44 PM:

    I’m still going to be covering Australian poolitics,

    I sympathise. Sometimes the poo is a bit overwhelming in politics.

  31. The Sydney Marathon has just been announced as joining London, Berlin, Boston, Tokyo, New York and Chicago on the prestigious majors list, having completed a two-year candidacy process that assesses factors such as participant numbers and community support. Destination NSW estimates the number of participants will increase to 37,800 by 2027 if the event becomes a major, contributing up to $300m to the state’s visitor economy.

  32. 5m ago
    16.13 AEDT
    Trade minister Don Farrell is in China, where he is doing his best to boost Australian wine sales – and to get lobster and meat sales back on track.

    Speaking with the ABC’s Afternoon Briefing, he said that he “got some assurances” from his counterpart minister “that everything is on track to resolve” the issues that have weighed on the Australian producers of those products – and that he has plans to go further:

    “Now, having done that we are not resting on our laurels. I’m here with 253 Australian companies, some of them have been here before, but many are coming for the first time and my job as the trade minister is to try and push Australian companies out of Australia and into overseas markets. Obviously China is the largest market for Australian goods. Last year we sold $327 billion of 2-way trade between Australia and China. But I think we can do better than that.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2024/nov/04/australia-politics-live-question-time-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-labor-student-debt-cost-of-living-qantas-flight-upgrade-chairmans-lounge

    This is good work, only to be undermined by the sinophobes and the warhawks.

  33. Allegra Spender has settled on a very perverse form of masochism to make some point or other. Somehow I suspect that her voters will think she’s a bit foolish. Couldn’t she just renounce upgrades? Or pay for Qantas lounge membership, rather than getting it from points?

    She will suffer in abject misery at the boarding gate and not win a single extra vote from this.

  34. Spender is right, although she invites cynicism with her latterday conversation to the straight and narrow.
    Still. Better late than never. Good on her.
    Parliamentarians should be restricted to one main house and a unit in Canberra.
    Everything else of investment value should be put into a blind trust.
    They should pay for everything else.
    No freebies.
    On a couple of hundred thousand a year they should be able to eke out a miserable existence.
    Kirribilli should be sold off and the funds used for homeless shelters.

  35. Fantastic outcome!

    When the Albanese Government took over they faced an intensely hostile China and a $20 billion per annum trade punishment by China. Tens of thousands of Australian jobs were at risk or lost as a result of the the disruptions in Australia.

    The Albanese Government fixed all that. Deliberately. Diplomatically. Persistently. Logically.

    Yeah, but the Albanese Government does nothing, nothing, nothing, nothing, nothing…

  38. Given her past life I’d reckon there was a fair chance Spencer had a pass to the Chairman’s Lounge before she became an MP.

  40. Kevin Bonham@kevinbonham:
    #Morgan ALP 30.5 L-NP 38 Grn 14 ON 6 IND 7.5* other 4
    * IND on readout everywhere so may be high
    Respondent prefs 2PP ALP trails 49-51 (-1.5)
    Last election 2PP ALP leads 51-49 (-0.5)

  41. How good is Allegra Spender? A person of conviction and integrity, great to see Helen Haines has joined her.

    Lets see if the 2 party duopoly gets shamed into giving up the travel perks as a result of this incident.

  42. Luigi
    Allegra Spender has settled on a very perverse form of masochism to make some point or other. Somehow I suspect that her voters will think she’s a bit foolish. Couldn’t she just renounce upgrades? Or pay for Qantas lounge membership, rather than getting it from points?

    I think she has given up the Chairman’s lounge, not sworn off lounges all together. I have difficulty imagining her sitting with the smellies waiting for the call to line up in the boarding queue.

  43. Apparently in early October membership of the Chairman’s lounge was all good for Spender, Haines and co. No conflict of interest at all. Nothing to see here. Into the lounge we go.

    Early November huge conflict of interest. “ we have seen the light ! “

    Hardly a example of conviction and integrity.

    Cheers and a good night to all.

  44. ALP MP Gosling told the ABC’s Afternoon Briefing:

    If they want to start talking to people from regional parts of Australia like where I live … I’ll give you a quick example … I had an event over the weekend, I got on the flight at midnight in Darwin like a lot of people have to do in Darwin. [I] flew down, was able to have a quick shave before I went out to an event down on the east coast, but it takes about eight hours.

    It’s a bit rich from the people with harbour views who either drive or have less than a one-hour flight … [They’re] just trying to grandstand, like the independents often do.

    OOP, embarrassing. “I’m the real one from the dinky-di outback. Ask any cobber, the chairman’s lounge is rinky-dink”

  45. I can understand fighting to the death for Medicare or say old age pensions but for the Chairman’s Lounge?

    What a farce.

  46. doyleysays
    Monday, November 4, 2024 at 5:46 pm

    Apparently in early October membership of the Chairman’s lounge was all good for Spender, Haines and co. No conflict of interest at all. Nothing to see here. Into the lounge we go.

    Early November huge conflict of interest. “ we have seen the light ! “

    Hardly a example of conviction and integrity.

    Cheers and a good night to all

    It’s not unreasonable for someone to change their mind or for their opinion to develop over time, particularly with exposure to an issue or when presented with new info.

    I expect they, like us, did not give a great deal of consideration to this specific form of political interference. Seeing the scam can be pretty hard when everyone is in on it.

    With the extra information now in the public sphere, and I expect some corro from her constituents, was able to see the rort.

    More than can be said for labors gosling.

  47. Imagine the horror – being in bog standard Qantas Club – you could be accosted by a constituent or worse maybe even a Superfan?

  48. nadia88 so there has been a 3% swing in voting preferences in a fortnight according to Morgan?

    Color me incredulous.

  50. I’m sure I saw potatoe head come out from under Mckenzies skirts in the HOR and ask Albo questions about anything he could without using the Q word once. That attempted slur came back to land on his stupid face. Score Albo 2 Dutton nil if you add the property purchase crap. Liberal HQ needs to restaff the dirt campaign . It’s getting embarrassing ☺

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