Morgan: 50.5-49.5 to Labor (open thread)

Morgan also finds support for the monarchy at a high in the wake of the royal visit, while RedBridge offers federal voting intention results from Queensland.

Moving on from Queensland, up to a point, three items of polling to relate:

• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor’s two-party lead in from 52-48 to 50.5-49.5, from primary votes of Labor 30% (down two), Coalition 37.5% (up one), Greens 14% (up half) and One Nation 5.5% (steady). Based on 2022 election flows, Labor leads 51.5-48.5, in from 53-47. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1687.

• Roy Morgan also has a result on republicanism that points to the brittleness of the support for the concept that polls generally record when the issue is out of the limelight. In the wake of the royal visit, a forced-response SMS poll of 1312 respondents conducted last Tuesday and Wednesday broke 57-43 in favour of retaining the monarchy.

• RedBridge Group has a timely result of federal voting intention from Queensland (hat tip to comments regular Nadia88) that has Labor on 28%, compared with 27.4% at the 2022; the Coalition at 41%, compared with 39.6%; the Greens at 13%, compared with 12.9%; and One Nation at 10%, compared with 7.5%. The poll was conducted several weeks ago, from October 4 to 16, from a substantial sample of 2315, and the full release contains detailed demographic breakdowns. It also finds Anthony Albanese on 34% approval and 53% disapproval; Peter Dutton on 39% and 42%; Steven Miles on 35% and 35%; and David Crisafulli on 40% and 31%.

• If you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can read my review of the Queensland election wash-up.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,896 comments on “Morgan: 50.5-49.5 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. You can count on one thing.
    The average punter has no idea what the Albo upgrade thing is.
    And if they do they don’t give a shit.
    Move on.

  2. The Pioneer project wasn’t canned because of topography. It was canned because it doesn’t use coal or gas. It’s as simple as that.

  3. Shaun Micallef has some corkers in today’s Crikey;
    America’s unseemly pursuit of Happiness

    The only real difference between the two (Donald Trump & Thomas Jefferson) is that the author of the Declaration of Independence thought nothing of travelling to Paris to deflower his dead wife’s underaged half-sister, whereas the closest the non-ghost writer of The Art of the Deal got to dishonouring anything from France was the faux-Beaux art furniture he chose for Mar-a-Lago.
    ……………
    I think the only way for America to be truly great again is for the British to reinvade and make America what it once was: 13 separate colonies that produce mainly tobacco, rice and indigo.

    Sorry for off topic – good afternoon.

  4. Geez given fed labors failed policies across the board its a great thing that Libs etc exercise their democratic right to limit more damage to Australians.

    Democracy says if you do not have the numbers labor suck it up!

    You are in a mess due to your own massive failures.

    The Aus now…

    Sam Dastyari hit with ban by ATO over super fund management
    The tax office has banned former NSW Labor senator Sam Dastyari from running a super fund after being found to have breached the Superannuation Act.

  5. Victorian Greens co-deputy leader Sam Hibbins will quit the state party room after revealing he had a “consensual relationship” with a staff member in his office.
    Hibbins, the member for Prahran, released a statement on Friday morning, saying the relationship ended “sometime ago” but it was a breach of the party room rules. He will sit as an independent MP.

  6. Its getting ugly…

    The Aus now.
    Albanese ‘no sook’ over Qantas upgrades fiasco, Butler declares
    Health Minister Mark Butler has offered a strident defence of Anthony Albanese, speaking out against an unnamed ministerial colleague that accused the PM of having a ‘massive sook-up’ over media coverage of his Qantas flights upgrade controversy.

    Most likely a federal labor backbencher who does not have a $4.5 million house to run to.

  7. Yes, I call the Guardian “the Ultra Lefty” just as I call the Daily Telegraph the “Daily terror”, the Herald Sun the “Herald Scum”, the SMH “Sydney Domain”, the Age “Melbourne Domain” etc.

  8. Lots of people may hold racist views. That’s not actually against the law. It is against the law to behave in a racist manner.

  9. Sam Dastyari hit with ban by ATO over super fund management
    The tax office has banned former NSW Labor senator Sam Dastyari from running a super fund after being found to have breached the Superannuation Act.
    _______________________
    That’s a shame. There would be few Australians I would trust more than Dastyari with my life savings.

  10. Badthinkersays:
    Friday, November 1, 2024 at 10:43 am
    Dutts hasn’t gone medieval on Albo, just said he’s got questions to answer, which is true.
    Parliament sits next week, let’s see how Albo goes on there first.
    _____________________
    If his train wreck on Tuesday is any guide then a total meltdown could be on the cards.
    Needs to keep it together.
    No more slagging off disabled people either.

  11. pied pipersays:
    Friday, November 1, 2024 at 1:10 pm
    Its getting ugly…

    The Aus now.
    Albanese ‘no sook’ over Qantas upgrades fiasco, Butler declares
    Health Minister Mark Butler has offered a strident defence of Anthony Albanese, speaking out against an unnamed ministerial colleague that accused the PM of having a ‘massive sook-up’ over media coverage of his Qantas flights upgrade controversy.

    Most likely a federal labor backbencher who does not have a $4.5 million house to run to.
    ===============================================

    Might need to get your story at least consistent. In the space of one sentence an “unnamed ministerial colleague” morphs into a “labor backbencher”. Are you claiming they got sacked from the ministry, in the time it takes you to write a sentence?

  12. Taylormadesays:
    Friday, November 1, 2024 at 1:16 pm
    Badthinkersays:
    Friday, November 1, 2024 at 10:43 am
    Dutts hasn’t gone medieval on Albo, just said he’s got questions to answer, which is true.
    Parliament sits next week, let’s see how Albo goes on there first.
    _____________________
    If his train wreck on Tuesday is any guide then a total meltdown could be on the cards.
    Needs to keep it together.
    No more slagging off disabled people either.
    ====================================================

    I don’t think Dutton can help himself.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/12/peter-dutton-condemned-for-disability-excuse-slur-against-ali-france

  13. RE: The Greens losing an MP in Victoria. I suspect Sam Hibbins was done in by someone within the Greens. The Victorian Greens are in a state internal civil war that makes the factional fighting inside Labor look mild.
    Hibbins would probably have been a stronger leader than Sandell if he had been allowed to have run the team.

  14. Socrates:
    The Pioneer / Burdekin Valey pumped hydro scheme (PHES) has by far the best potential for hydro power generation and storage in northern Qld.
    That’s not saying much.
    There’s bound to be some part of the Sahara Desert that similar could be said of.
    Qld Goverment resumed 50 Cattle and Sugar properties to build this make-work White Elephant, never been a Cost/Benefit analysis, it’s a boondoggle.

  15. @Fairman – “Hibbins would probably have been a stronger leader than Sandell if he had been allowed to have run the team.”

    It would be a bigger scandal for the Greens if it was their leader who had to step down for doing a Barnaby, I’m not sure that’s stronger leadership.

    I’ll leave it there rather than delve into the bad puns I’m tempted to make about the whole affair.

  16. Badthinkersays:
    Friday, November 1, 2024 at 11:14 am
    Topography of the Pioneer Valley is wrong for Pumped Hydro.
    It’s another Labor boondoggle, like the canned Traveston Dam.
    ——————————————-

    Badthinkersays:
    Friday, November 1, 2024 at 2:13 pm
    Socrates:
    The Pioneer / Burdekin Valey pumped hydro scheme (PHES) has by far the best potential for hydro power generation and storage in northern Qld.
    That’s not saying much.
    There’s bound to be some part of the Sahara Desert that similar could be said of.
    Qld Goverment resumed 50 Cattle and Sugar properties to build this make-work White Elephant, never been a Cost/Benefit analysis, it’s a boondoggle.
    ==========================================================

    So if we look at you two statements on this subject. It appears you are claiming there is no topography in Nth Qld suitable for pumped hydro? What are your actual qualifications in this field and why should we believe you on this?

  17. PP go to your bottleshop. You need a new bottle of whine. Has Dutton wiped the egg off his face hiding under McKenzies skirt yet…or is that Gina ? Come fly with me…They might be better off to drop this smear campaign before Parliament sits again.

  18. That Micallef piece is dreadful. Shaun is very hit or miss and that’s a miss. The Jefferson analogy is OK but otherwise it’s just kinda running down Americans in general with the too impressed himself tone that Micallef is best when he avoids.

  19. Dave
    One thing about Dastyari (and Craig Thompson and Michael Williamson when they were directors of super funds) is that they have innovative ideas on wealth creation.

  20. @Rex – “What the hell is Marles doing about this ?”

    Letting the lawyers handle it, since it is a legal case now.

    The Guardian is very happy to let itself be used by certain lawyers for trial by media pressure tactics. It’s pretty shit of them. They should leave that tier of grubbiness to Albrechtson and the Australian.

  21. Possum Comitatus: I yet again implore men to follow the very simple rule: “Don’t stick your dick in your staff”. It’s really not that difficult.

  22. Haven’t seen the Eungella Valley in 60 years, unforgettable sight, environmental vndalism doesn’t matter when the Labor Party does it, apparently.

  23. @Oakeshott “. But one way to exclude the appearance of influence is for all politicians to place their assets into a blind trust – the trustees could be government officials”

    A lot of them would probably prefer to stash their money in gold bars under the bed than put their assets into the hands of “government officials”.

    “oops, sorry Mr Dutton, we thought it was a good idea to put all your money into shares in Dodgy Mining Exploration Ltd and now you’re broke. Whoops!”

  24. B S Fairman

    The Age reported: Greens leader Ellen Sandell will hold a press conference at 12.30pm. Her office’s media alert said she would discuss “serious allegations concerning the member for Prahran”.

    I’d wager Hibbins was about to be outed so jumped.

    Pretty dumb to have an affair, dumber to have one with staff.

  25. Dutton in trouble with bagging his disabled election opponent. Wouldn’t it be ironic if that cost him his seat but I doubt it. A Queenslander as a PM candidate will have the rednecks dripping with joy. Labor can forget gaining seats in Qld except maybe Greens held seats. I’m so glad I don’t live there any more.

  26. Badthinkersays:
    Friday, November 1, 2024 at 2:36 pm
    Haven’t seen the Eungella Valley in 60 years, unforgettable sight, environmental vndalism doesn’t matter when the Labor Party does it, apparently.
    ====================================================

    Your original post was claiming it was unsuitable on topographic grounds. Now you appear to be claiming environmental grounds instead. Which is hardly consistent. Your earlier posts seemed to suggest it was being built on cow paddocks and sugar plantations. Certainly not my definition of a pristine environment. Sounds like highly altered agricultural land to me, if that is the case.

  27. Looks as though members of the LNP Jeer Squad are heading for the hills….
    Gina’s egg still splattered over Dutton’s face while the smug West paper is now down to ”Albo still has questions to answer – according to Qantas ‘insiders'” – whoever these unidentified persons may be – as the cop out for this rag.
    It has almost got to the point where the “They all all the same, these politicians………” is now the accepted line, or as Riley in the above rag copped out…….Albanese “took too long” to respond to the accusations” and hence, by logical deduction, he MUST have had something to hide.

  28. The original limited hangout was
    The LNP do it too, that segued into
    Everyone does it, now it’s
    How can we prevent anyone doing it?
    ——————————-
    Meanwhile, a non story about the 2019 campaign in Dickson surfaces.
    An industry source quoted in today’s Oz says the James Strong/Geoff Dixon Qantas didn’t downgrade Chairman’s Lounge members, once Joyce took over there were Ministers who lost the priviledge the day after they left office.

  29. “ You can count on one thing.
    The average punter has no idea what the Albo upgrade thing is.
    And if they do they don’t give a shit.
    Move on.”

    Mundo, I actually don’t give a shit about his upgrades. But let’s address the elephant in the room – Alan Joyce. There’s a reason everyone from Murdock to the ABC is showing happy snaps of Albanese and Joyce giggling together.

    Can everyone please acknowledge the elephant in the room!

    Alan Joyce sacked workers illegally.

    Alan Joyce tried to bust the union.

    Alan Joyce destroyed a once proud iconic Australian airline.

    Alan Joyce made $150 million dollars for fifteen years of being an arsehole.

    Alan Joyce took the money and fucked off back to Ireland.

    Alan Joyce was a very good mate of Albanese.

  30. One for the “You’ve got to be kidding me” file …

    https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/anthony-albanese-had-dedicated-qantas-senior-executive-who-handled-flight-upgrades/news-story/fa1c224ac5e35ea0fa45c1d0623e5ff8

    Sky News host Sharri Markson can now reveal the commemorative plaque at the home of a senior Qantas executive, which had been opened by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in 2019, when he was Opposition Leader.

    Ms Markson revealed the executive Andrew Parker personally handled Mr Albanese’s flight upgrades to business class when he was the Group Executive for Government and International Affairs before being promoted to Group Executive for Sustainability.

    The plaque reads: “officially opened by the Hon Gladys Berejiklian MLA Premier of NSW” and “ The Hon Anthony Albanese MP Leader of the Federal Opposition”.

    At the time Andrew Parker personally handled Mr Albanese’s flight upgrades to business class he was the Group Executive for Government and International Affairs before being promoted to Group Executive for Sustainability.

    It can also be revealed that as well as having direct contact with Qantas senior executive Andrew Parker, Mr Albanese was also personally close with him and attended his housewarming in a warehouse in Annandale.

    There is even a mock plaque on Mr Parker’s house which says it was officially opened by Mr Albanese.

    Ok, yes – it is Sky News. But even they wouldn’t be making this up 🙁

  31. I’m thinking Dutton will win the election next year.

    Just imagine what rank and file members of the TWU and CFMEU think of Albo and his union based party cosying up to the likes of Alan Joyce and doing deals with Dutton on union matters.

    Even other union members would be sickened at the sight

    Labor is hardly the party for union members these days. Labor hq is more interested in industry superfund dividends and the approval of the corporate elite.

    Labor have lost sight of their purpose. They have lost their way.

  32. Re the Markson story, it’s starting to get vicious, which is sorta sad, the original issue was Albo won on the perception that Morrison was dodgy
    and the implication that Albo isn’t.

  33. The kicker is that the Labor Narrative that the Liberals are toffs and they’re honest battlers won’t play so long as Albo is in the hot seat.

  34. Did any union bosses representing airport workforces get offered free upgrades and/or Chairman’s lounge membership under the Alan Joyce regime?

  35. Oakeshott Country @ #1291 Friday, November 1st, 2024 – 4:01 pm

    Entropy @ #1288 Friday, November 1st, 2024 – 3:56 pm

    “attended his housewarming in a warehouse in Annandale.”

    I thought you had housewarmings in the house you moved into?

    Probably something like this:

    https://www.domain.com.au/news/annandale-warehouse-conversion-hits-market-with-price-guide-of-5-5-million-1055115/

    I expect they will throw the plaque in for the same price Albo paid for his upgrades.

  36. I see the Qantas stuff has now disintegrated from “gotcha” to “whataboutism”.
    Quote…”Did any union bosses ….get offered upgrades…….etc……..”. What a hoot…..
    Did Albanese buy a suit from a tailor who came from Lebanon thereby failing to show solidarity with those in Gaza?
    Why isn’t Albanese living in a tent on Bondi Beach to show solidarity with the poor and oppressed.
    Why doesn’t Dutton buy his own plane so he stops hitching rides with the richest woman in Oz? At least he could then claim he is not in her pocket and be squeaky clean when it comes to perks.
    Maybe she will build him a nuclear power station or two thereby saving the taxpayer the expense?

  37. All week about a phone call that never transpired by a virtually unknown has been journalist who has grudges says so. The MSM must be desperate to discredit Albo.Next week maybe Albo will buy a car or pay for a fancy wedding, or buy a gold toilet to shit in.

  38. Player Onesays:
    Friday, November 1, 2024 at 3:56 pm
    What’s that old saying? Something about how you can judge people by the company they keep?
    =================================================

    Alternatively by who they believe and follow. If you want to believe Sharri Markson’s propaganda that your choice i guess. Not something i would do though.

  39. On more serious matters, there is a headline at “The Age” putting that housing affordability has been an issue since the year 2000 according to graphs which are behind a paywall.
    Finally someone is giving a correct summation because between the year 2000 and the year 2010 the amount we owed to our home mortgage lenders increased from $335 BILLION to $1.226 TRILLION by RBA data, a lazy 150% increase, this increase in debt driving house prices.
    The reasons behind that increase I will leave to others to analyse but when inflation saw the 10 Year Bond Yield with a 7 in front of it in 2007 (now a 4 and people are complaining!!) and home buyers were under severe pressure given the levels of debt they were carrying, along came sub-prime lending (the GFC) and interest rates were reduced to unprecedented levels never before seen, then the Pandemic with interest rates further reduced to NIL.
    Now we see a 4 in front of the 10 Year Bond Yield (and increasing given global turmoil) from NIL and the affordability “crisis” which is front and centre with media.
    This has been 24 years in the making.
    Mind you media informs that properties are being bought and sold for millions – look at their headlines.

  40. Entropy @ #1296 Friday, November 1st, 2024 – 4:19 pm

    Player Onesays:
    Friday, November 1, 2024 at 3:56 pm
    What’s that old saying? Something about how you can judge people by the company they keep?
    =================================================

    Alternatively by who they believe and follow. If you want to believe Sharri Markson’s propaganda that your choice i guess. Not something i would do though.

    You think Sharri Markson faked the photo? You could be right, I guess – it is Sky News.

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