Morgan: 50.5-49.5 to Labor (open thread)

Morgan also finds support for the monarchy at a high in the wake of the royal visit, while RedBridge offers federal voting intention results from Queensland.

Moving on from Queensland, up to a point, three items of polling to relate:

• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor’s two-party lead in from 52-48 to 50.5-49.5, from primary votes of Labor 30% (down two), Coalition 37.5% (up one), Greens 14% (up half) and One Nation 5.5% (steady). Based on 2022 election flows, Labor leads 51.5-48.5, in from 53-47. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1687.

• Roy Morgan also has a result on republicanism that points to the brittleness of the support for the concept that polls generally record when the issue is out of the limelight. In the wake of the royal visit, a forced-response SMS poll of 1312 respondents conducted last Tuesday and Wednesday broke 57-43 in favour of retaining the monarchy.

• RedBridge Group has a timely result of federal voting intention from Queensland (hat tip to comments regular Nadia88) that has Labor on 28%, compared with 27.4% at the 2022; the Coalition at 41%, compared with 39.6%; the Greens at 13%, compared with 12.9%; and One Nation at 10%, compared with 7.5%. The poll was conducted several weeks ago, from October 4 to 16, from a substantial sample of 2315, and the full release contains detailed demographic breakdowns. It also finds Anthony Albanese on 34% approval and 53% disapproval; Peter Dutton on 39% and 42%; Steven Miles on 35% and 35%; and David Crisafulli on 40% and 31%.

• If you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can read my review of the Queensland election wash-up.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,896 comments on “Morgan: 50.5-49.5 to Labor (open thread)”

Comments Page 24 of 38
1 23 24 25 38
  1. Thank you, BK.

    This shows why it is absolutely critical for people to support Albanese and his comprehensive suite of climate actions.

    The FED Nationals have declared they want to cap renewables investment. First major funding decision by the Qld LNP. Destroy a massive mega pumped hydro project.

    The Australian says that the new Queensland Premier has cancelled a landmark ‘truth-telling’ inquiry, as his newly elected LNP government immediately shuts down work on a mega pumped hydro project.
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/david-crisafulli-dumps-truthtelling-inquiry-and-pioneer-burdekin-in-first-week/news-story/f8d70626dbd30e4f341f5cd8ebea5e73?amp

  2. Thanks for the roundup BK, concise and informative as always. Albo’s statement has defused some of the criticism of himself and highlighted the hypocrisy of his opponents. However the whole mess still hides the fact that actual governance of airlines in Australia has been conflicted for years and needs improvement.

    On this story about rising airfares since Rex and Bonza dies, worth noting that this has occurred whilst fuel prices have been falling. This is profiteering.

    “Australians are paying more for domestic flights after the collapse of regional airlines Rex and Bonza, with prices on the Melbourne to Sydney route soaring. Data from online travel agent Webjet shows the average booking price for a return ticket between Melbourne and Sydney jumped from $385 in late July to $537 in late October – up 39.5 per cent. Hmmm.”
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/how-much-the-cost-of-domestic-airfares-has-surged-since-the-collapse-of-rex-bonza-20241029-p5kmep.html

  3. BK, Boerwar

    “ The Australian says that the new Queensland Premier has cancelled a landmark ‘truth-telling’ inquiry, as his newly elected LNP government immediately shuts down work on a mega pumped hydro project.”
    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/david-crisafulli-dumps-truthtelling-inquiry-and-pioneer-burdekin-in-first-week/news-story/f8d70626dbd30e4f341f5cd8ebea5e73?amp

    Labor should be attacking this and remind people off the impacts. The pumped hydro scheme would have made the Qld grid more stable, given cheaper power prices, and provided construction work in north Qld. This is a win for LNP donors, not Qld voters.

    How long before Qld LNP voter buyer’s remorse sets in?

  4. From Dawn Patrol (thank you BK):

    Writing about the US election, Waleed Aly writes, “It’s an extraordinary situation: elections being decided largely by the victims of globalisation – the very globalisation the US itself championed and engineered having won the Cold War. That’s a mighty structural contradiction, and it throws off all kinds of sparks.

    Also extraordinary is the fact that many of the victims of glabisation are going to vote for the front man and representatives of the beneficiaries of globalisation.

  5. I see nothing wrong with accepting/expecting upgrades for PM/OL and ministers. This in my mind, should be automatic as imagine that our PM and his security team are all taking up space in the airport lounge where there is nearly always a lack of space.
    Be sensible people, we should expect our leaders to be safe.
    This attempt to get at the PM is and has been a beat-up since these upgrades have been happening for years.

  6. Bank of China has branches in Australia so why is the fed gov saying Fiji etc cannot have them? Bent over backwards has fed labor for communist China hypocrisy reigns.

  7. Boerwar @ #1151 Friday, November 1st, 2024 – 8:25 am

    This shows why it is absolutely critical for people to support Albanese and his comprehensive suite of climate actions.

    Oh, you mean the ones that result in Australia’s domestic fossil-fuel related emissions rising? …

    https://theasialive.com/australias-greenhouse-gas-emissions-from-electricity-grid-climb-for-third-consecutive-quarter-amid-rising-energy-demand/2024/10/31

    Or do you mean these ones that result in Australia’s exported fossil-fuel emissions rising? …

    https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/australia-cleans-up-home-exported-emissions-keep-growing-maguire-2024-01-18/

    I don’t care whether you think “freebie” Albo is the best PM since Whitlam or the worst PM since Abbott, the reality is that Albo’s government is not doing anywhere near enough on emissions, and is sentencing our neighbouring nations to death by continuing to approve more fossil fuel extraction …

    https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/post/max-opray/2024/10/25/australias-emissions-pasifika-death-sentence

    “So what if Pasifika suffers” … some might be thinking … “We’ll be fine”.

    No we won’t – it will just take a little longer.

    Did you never wonder why Albo’s seaside mansion is at the top of the cliff and not on the beach? Did you think it was just for the view?

  8. muskiempsays:
    Friday, November 1, 2024 at 8:51 am
    I see nothing wrong with accepting/expecting upgrades for PM/OL and ministers. This in my mind, should be automatic as imagine that our PM and his security team are all taking up space in the airport lounge where there is nearly always a lack of space.
    Be sensible people, we should expect our leaders to be safe.
    This attempt to get at the PM is and has been a beat-up since these upgrades have been happening for years.
    ___________________________
    If its a matter of safety or whatever else, then it should be provisioned by government, not at the whim of a company, and how favourably a MP votes for that company (see Clive Palmer). If its a matter of safety, the status-quo is an appalling arrangement.

    I don’t really think it is a matter of safety, but of privilege – but we’ll be here all day (again) if we get into that.

    I don’t necessarily mind if the government tenders an air lounge, and business class for all ministers (the case would need to be made), but I do mind ministers effectively selling their votes for favourable treatment by corporations.

  9. muskiemp @ #1156 Friday, November 1st, 2024 – 8:51 am

    I see nothing wrong with accepting/expecting upgrades for PM/OL and ministers. This in my mind, should be automatic as imagine that our PM and his security team are all taking up space in the airport lounge where there is nearly always a lack of space.
    Be sensible people, we should expect our leaders to be safe.
    This attempt to get at the PM is and has been a beat-up since these upgrades have been happening for years.

    So effectively having a Qantas check-in desk inside the Transport Minister’s office is perfectly fine in your opinion?

  10. BW:
    “This shows why it is absolutely critical for people to support Albanese and his comprehensive suite of climate actions.”

    you could call this government’s record on climate many things, but ‘comprehensive’ isn’t one of them

    the government has a sort of plan for the electricity sector, vehicle efficiency standards which apply only to personal transport and don’t include the worst offending utes and SUVs

    nothing meaningful for trucking, rail or aviation, nothing for agriculture

    A safeguards mechanism which is essentially a coalition policy improved a bit by the greens which at its heart relies on discredited and likely worthless carbon credits and accounting tricks

    it’s legislated target of a 43% reduction is grossly insufficient, and the government is unlikely to even reach that

    and our emissions are currently RISING, all whilst the government continues to approve the expansion of the fossil fuel industry and there are major indications that we have been vastly under-reporting our methane emissions from coal and gas projects in particular

  11. Banquo911 says:
    Friday, November 1, 2024 at 8:22 am
    I’m still on this horse.

    “So, I don’t think we need to always think that people assisting has a quid pro quo, and that’s why it’s important to have public declarations and important to look at behaviour.”
    -McKenzie

    Coalition has demonstrated public declarations don’t work. They either forget to declare, don’t know when they have to declare, or don’t care to

    Whether there is quid pro quo or not, soliciting gifts and favors (even just accepting gifts and favors) creates the impression that the politician is compromised and engaged in misconduct. Every flight, every upgrade, every bottle of wine, sports game or concert ticket erodes the public’s trust in democracy, and it can’t be allowed to continue.

    ________

    I am in rare agreement on this. All lobbying is problematic. We have good evidence from the healthcare industry that pharmaceutical companies provision of lunch and educational support, even when declared, results in a change in prescribing behaviour. If prescribers are influenced, why not politicians (and senior public servants)?

    While we are at it, we need to prevent delayed benefit as well. Prevent employment/remuneration in any related industry afterwards for a few years. Five should do it 🙂

    In return we need to better support political activity and remuneration as a polity. Good luck with that as well.

  12. 1. One main house and a unit in Canberra.
    2. Everything else is paid for directly by the politician.
    3. No holdings or interests in industries related to a minister’s portfolio. By either the minister or his partner.
    4. Stop flying altogether. It is killing the planet.

  13. I can’t see corruption in the upgrades as they are basically open to all Ministers and shadow Ministers. Where as free flights by individuals such as Gina Rinehart, who only speaks to LNP, is a different story.

  14. record renewables generation
    record infrastructure investment
    record EVs
    record battery investment
    record pumped hydro investment
    coal-fired power on its death bed

    Make no mistake. Dutton will kill as much of that as he can. He is promising a nuclear future.
    As for the Greens, they are promising Zero Net Forty.
    Dutton and the Greens are lying Big Lies.

  15. The rise and rise of individuals who are morally righteous and who don’t mind behaving like Thorpe, Howe, those who are shutting down public speaking events, those who block people from driving to work, those who are trashing art in galleries, as well as those who are making it traumatic for Labor electoral staff to move into their workplaces.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/31/anti-abortion-advocate-joanna-howe-banned-from-south-australias-upper-house-for-alleged-threatening-tactics-ntwnfb

  16. Stark reality …

    https://theconversation.com/dug-up-in-australia-burned-around-the-world-exporting-fossil-fuels-undermines-climate-targets-236248

    Australia is one of the world’s largest exporters of fossil fuels. While this coal and gas is burned beyond our borders, the climate-warming carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions affect us all.

    My colleagues and I at global research and policy institute Climate Analytics were commissioned to find out just how big Australia’s carbon footprint really is. Our detailed analysis of the nation’s fossil fuel exports and associated emissions is the most comprehensive to date. The report, released today, clearly shows Australia plays a major role in climate change.

    We found Australia is the world’s third-largest fossil fuel exporter, after Russia and the United States. But it gets worse when the fuel is used. Australia exports so much coal that our nation is the second-largest exporter of fossil fuel CO₂ emissions.

    Unfortunately, just when we need to be cutting emissions, Australia is doubling down on fossil gas extraction mainly for LNG production and export. Federal government policies enabling and/or promoting continued high fossil fuel exports threaten to sabotage international efforts to limit global warming.

    Blowing the carbon budget

    Between 2023 and 2035, Australia’s fossil fuel exports alone would consume around 7.5% of the world’s estimated remaining global carbon budget of about 200 billion tonnes of CO₂. This is the amount of CO₂ that could still be emitted from 2024 onwards if we are to limit peak warming to 1.5°C with 50% probability.

    But rather than decreasing, CO₂ emissions from Australia’s fossil fuel exports are set to increase under current government policies. In other words, in the next 11 years, by 2035, exported fossil fuel CO₂ emissions will exceed by 50% that of the entire 63 year period from 1961 to 2023.

    If we include domestic CO₂ emissions from current policies, this means by 2035 Australia, with 0.3% of the world’s population, would consume 9% of the total remaining carbon budget.

    But sure, let Albo have his little “freebies”. He deserves them, right?

  17. With regard to Crisafulli’s cancellation of the the Queensland truth-telling inquiry, it would be great to see the Federal government step in and provide funding for its continuation on the grounds that it is important from a national point-of-view.

    I don’t think that this would happen, however. As worthwhile as it would be, doing this could hardly be seen as being part of the ALP’s “small target” strategy.

  18. Albo attacked Dutton for holding assets in a trust – fair enough. But one way to exclude the appearance of influence is for all politicians to place their assets into a blind trust – the trustees could be government officials.

  19. I am looking forward to the Greens sweeping into government with majorities in the House and the Senate and using that majority to close down Australia’s coal, oil, gas and uranium industries, thereby incidentally preventing south and east asia from burning australian coal and gas.

    I am looking forward to the Greens sweeping into governement with majorities in the House and the Senate and using that majority to deliver Zero Net Forty.

    Until then we have the real choice: between a Labor Government that is well on the road to decarbonising the economy and Dutton who will revere that where he can.

  20. Marles labors federal deputy has his chief of staff appealing desperately for Albo to intervene due to Marles bullying.
    ABC today.
    Cmon Albo cant you help a lady in distress out mate?

    Good news today is ATO cracking down on tax dodges many super rich.

  21. ‘Stuart says:
    Friday, November 1, 2024 at 9:39 am

    With regard to Crisafulli’s cancellation of the the Queensland truth-telling inquiry, it would be great to see the Federal government step in and provide funding for its continuation on the grounds that it is important from a national point-of-view.

    I don’t think that this would happen, however. As worthwhile as it would be, doing this could hardly be seen as being part of the ALP’s “small target” strategy.’
    =====================
    Dutton and the Greens and the Nationals and One Nation killed that stone dead with 60/40 on the Voice.

  22. There has never been any suggestion in the media that Marles himself engaged in bullying. The issue seems to be that there was bullying within his office and that when he investigated it a lot of staff lodged complaints about the bully.

  23. What is disgraceful is Crisafulli pulling the plug on the pumped hydro. Why would he do that? And why pull the plug on the Truth Telling?

  24. Some around here seem to hate the first prime minister to take sweeping action on climate change with the sort of visceral hatred normally reserved for people like Trump and Dutton.
    Of course Albanese is gutless.
    He should be taking action on flying, banning overseas tourists, culling the domestic livestock herds.
    He should be taking draconian action on taxing ICE vehicles.
    Gutless.
    He should right now destroy the oil, coal, gas and uranium industries.
    Never mind. Your fave, Dutton, will deliver all.

  25. According to the ultra lefty –
    Justice Angus Stewart has found that Hanson’s tweet, where she said Mehreen Faruqi should “piss off back to Pakistan”, is unlawful.

  26. ‘muskiemp says:
    Friday, November 1, 2024 at 9:55 am

    What is disgraceful is Crisafulli pulling the plug on the pumped hydro….’
    ====================
    It is probably why Burnett stayed with Labor. It is a cruel blow to the local and regional economy.

  27. Penny Wong has just bought a $3.4 million dollar house in Adelaide in a desirable suburb no doubt well away from the homeless and renters that the federal labor government has trashed via its population policy.

    $4.5 million house for Albo working class reps this lot!

  28. Possibility for a good move from the govt on student debt
    Radical plan to slash student debts by tens of thousands of dollars

    Also a good few opportunities for them to biff it.

    Options under consideration include cutting the total student debt pile of $70 billion by up to 20 per cent, which would reduce individual loans by the same amount; changing or removing indexation for a period of time; tinkering with repayment rates or increasing the threshold at which a person must start paying off loans from the current income of $51,550; and pausing repayments for those on parental leave.

    Just straight up wiping the debt would be well received IMO – helps people start accessing their own money sooner, and makes indexation less damaging.

    Increasing the threshold (which I bet is going to be what they land on) is the worst option – it delays when repayments start, and while we continue to impose indexation, means peoples debts are going to continue growing while they’re not making contributions for longer.

  29. Muskiemp

    I can’t really agree that everyone accepting the same upgrades from Qantas makes it OK. That only demonstrates that Qantas does this as a deliberate policy to gain favorable treatment from government no matter who is in power. What is clear is that Albo’s behaviour is no worse than the rest, and some like McKenzie (undeclared flights) and Dutton (Reinhardt’s private jet flights) are worse still.

  30. The dud thug spud has been completely caught out… what an ass-clown 😆

    “https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/blown-up-in-their-face-liberal-party-forced-to-backtrack-in-qantas-upgrade-saga/news-story/792d8081a974d540d4adda9c75af4f7f”

  31. Boerwarsays:
    Friday, November 1, 2024 at 10:00 am
    ‘muskiemp says:
    Friday, November 1, 2024 at 9:55 am

    What is disgraceful is Crisafulli pulling the plug on the pumped hydro….’
    ====================
    It is probably why Burnett stayed with Labor. It is a cruel blow to the local and regional economy.

    Pumped Hydro is in Eungella, outside Mackay, 700 ks away from the Burnett.

  32. I doubt any politicians will either resign or be forced out because of gate-gate.

    Which tells you pretty much everything you need to know about the current state of Australian politics.

  33. In the mirror, darkly

    Dutton (peering out): “I see corruption”
    Adviser: “Sir, that is a mirror not a window”
    Dutton: “See, i was right”

  34. Dutts hasn’t gone medieval on Albo, just said he’s got questions to answer, which is true.
    Parliament sits next week, let’s see how Albo goes on there first.

  35. Player Onesays:
    Friday, November 1, 2024 at 10:40 am
    I doubt any politicians will either resign or be forced out because of gate-gate.

    Which tells you pretty much everything you need to know about the current state of Australian politics.

    They are a law unto themselves, obviously.

  36. Socrates
    If it was automatically acceptable for an upgrade to either Qantas or Virgin there would not be any pressure able to be put on Ministers/Shadow Ministers.
    I believe that we have to be pragmatic about this. These people are basically on duty 24 hrs a day seven days a week.

  37. Re π‘d piper @10:11.

    ”Penny Wong has just bought a $3.4 million dollar house in Adelaide in a desirable suburb no doubt well away from the homeless and renters that the federal labor government has trashed via its population policy.”

    Not sure what point you’re trying to make or why you bother posting these Daily Rupert / Rupert After Dark memes here. I am assuming that you are not expecting to convert any of the Labor and Green woke socialists who post here to your rather hard-right form of LNP-ism.

    Ms Wong receives a good salary, but much less than she could earn in the corporate world. The same as would a Coalition Foreign Minister, equivalent to a senior executive in a big corporation but well below that of a CEO and their direct reports (CFO, COO, etc).

    Are you saying that Ms Wong should put on a hair shirt and live in a cardboard box?

  38. I see that Senator Faruqi has defeated Senator Hanson in the Federal Court.
    Standing up to racism is very courageous in this country.

Comments Page 24 of 38
1 23 24 25 38

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *