Morgan: 50.5-49.5 to Labor (open thread)

Morgan also finds support for the monarchy at a high in the wake of the royal visit, while RedBridge offers federal voting intention results from Queensland.

Moving on from Queensland, up to a point, three items of polling to relate:

• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor’s two-party lead in from 52-48 to 50.5-49.5, from primary votes of Labor 30% (down two), Coalition 37.5% (up one), Greens 14% (up half) and One Nation 5.5% (steady). Based on 2022 election flows, Labor leads 51.5-48.5, in from 53-47. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1687.

• Roy Morgan also has a result on republicanism that points to the brittleness of the support for the concept that polls generally record when the issue is out of the limelight. In the wake of the royal visit, a forced-response SMS poll of 1312 respondents conducted last Tuesday and Wednesday broke 57-43 in favour of retaining the monarchy.

• RedBridge Group has a timely result of federal voting intention from Queensland (hat tip to comments regular Nadia88) that has Labor on 28%, compared with 27.4% at the 2022; the Coalition at 41%, compared with 39.6%; the Greens at 13%, compared with 12.9%; and One Nation at 10%, compared with 7.5%. The poll was conducted several weeks ago, from October 4 to 16, from a substantial sample of 2315, and the full release contains detailed demographic breakdowns. It also finds Anthony Albanese on 34% approval and 53% disapproval; Peter Dutton on 39% and 42%; Steven Miles on 35% and 35%; and David Crisafulli on 40% and 31%.

• If you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can read my review of the Queensland election wash-up.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,896 comments on “Morgan: 50.5-49.5 to Labor (open thread)”

Comments Page 22 of 38
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  1. Deesays:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 12:17 pm
    Taylormade
    My husband & father use to go shooting at the stony rises, rabbits of course. Mmm..47 years ago!
    _____________________
    So did my dad when he was a young roustabout.
    Interesting area. The lava flow is from Mt Rouse in Penshurst. Can see it really well on clear version of Google Earth.
    I like the story from a few years ago when a fire ripped through there. The CFA withdrew and just let it burn. Too many tiger snakes to safely fight the fire

  2. I think we can expect Gina to step up to defend her man. The plane was probably going wherever anyway.

    Where is there a conflict of interest when your loyalty is on public view anyway?

  3. Herald Sun 31/10
    But in explosive new claims, a Qantas whistleblower said that people were “freaking out” over the Prime Minister’s blanket denials insisting that there was contact between his office and the airline over upgrades in previous years.
    “I know because I know. It’s bulls**t. It did happen,’’ the Qantas insider said.
    “We all knew about it. It’s very well known inside Qantas. (Former government relations executive) Andrew Parker used to get calls from Labor staffers as well about upgrades.
    “If there’s senate inquiry and Alan Joyce goes he’s going to get asked.
    _____________________
    Hold your horses. It’s not over yet.

  4. No exceptions. The PM has a goddam fleet of nine Air Force planes at his disposal, FFS
    He or his staffers wouldn’t let Dutts have one to attend the Bali Memorial, so he had to call Gina.
    Imagine the Media hysteria if Scotty couldn’t spare a RAAF jet to take Albo to the Bali Memorial?
    There’d still be wailing and gnashing of teeth.
    ————————————–
    Michelle Rowland could claim a few firsts [depending on the audience]:
    First Indian PM
    First Fijian PM
    Least tallest PM?
    ————-
    Assuming Albo is toast, election for Dec. 14?

  6. Labor ones, no.
    Plenty are born to the purple.
    LNP, different story, i’d hold them to some standard.
    e.g. Bridget McKenzie should go, Barnaby should too, just on suspicion of being a trougher.
    How about Mal Colston, hey?
    He publicly impersonated a pig in a sty for 20 years, ol’ Rupe was oblivious.

  7. Dutton’s private flight to the Bali memorial service reminds me of Shorten using Richard Pratt’s jet to get to Beaconsfield. The reason makes a difference.
    Still don’t know the reason why Albo was gallivanting around in Lindsay Fox’s chopper though.

  8. Taylormadesays:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 7:21 pm
    Dutton’s private flight to the Bali memorial service reminds me of Shorten using Richard Pratt’s jet to get to Beaconsfield. The reason makes a difference.
    ________________________
    Pratt’s jet went a lot further than Beaconsfield. Shorten went to Easter Island, South America and Cuba. Nice get.

  9. Good evening all. FWIW a bit of social observation.

    I’m having an enjoyable time providing lollies and chocolates to a never-ending stream of trick or treaters who are arriving on my front doorstep. My partner and I like to put some spooky-looking props on our mailbox along with a notice saying that trick or treaters are welcome. It makes us feel connected to the community, which is something that is becoming a little more difficult over time as most people in our neighbourhood drive around in tank-like vehicles in which they disappear quickly behind automatic garage doors.

    Out of a sense of social responsibility, we are limiting each customer to one treat. I had a first tonight: a girl asked me if I had any gluten-free chocolates. Of course I wasn’t sure, but she took one of mine anyway and said she knew where she could swap it to get a gluten-free one.

    Another noteworthy trend is that almost all of the trick or treaters are being driven about place in parental cars, where only a few years back that they used to walk around in groups. Parents are becoming more and more untrusting about strangers, which is probably reasonable but is also rather sad.

  10. Taylormade says:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 6:55 pm
    Herald Sun 31/10
    But in explosive new claims, a Qantas whistleblower said that people were “freaking out” over the Prime Minister’s blanket denials insisting that there was contact between his office and the airline over upgrades in previous years.
    “I know because I know. It’s bulls**t. It did happen,’’ the Qantas insider said.
    “We all knew about it. It’s very well known inside Qantas. (Former government relations executive) Andrew Parker used to get calls from Labor staffers as well about upgrades.
    “If there’s senate inquiry and Alan Joyce goes he’s going to get asked.
    _____________________
    Hold your horses. It’s not over yet.
    ………………………
    Maybe, maybe not. Certainly can’t reach that conclusion on any proper parsing of the passage you quote from the herald scum.

    It is clear from the passage that Andrew Parker, whoever he is, didn’t take calls from the PM or his office because he got calls (allegedly) from labor staffers “as well.” The rest is just hearsay on hearsay.

  12. Lol. Dutton: “My free trip to Bali, provided by Gina Reinhart on her private jet, didn’t cost the taxpayers any money.”

    Yet. 😐

  13. Albo had a meeting today with his colleagues to try and calm the horses.
    In witness protection today will come out of hiding soon which will help libs as he is the gift that week after week keeps giving via own goals.

  14. Windhover @ #1061 Thursday, October 31st, 2024 – 7:27 pm

    Taylormade says:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 6:55 pm
    Herald Sun 31/10
    But in explosive new claims, a Qantas whistleblower said that people were “freaking out” over the Prime Minister’s blanket denials insisting that there was contact between his office and the airline over upgrades in previous years.
    “I know because I know. It’s bulls**t. It did happen,’’ the Qantas insider said.
    “We all knew about it. It’s very well known inside Qantas. (Former government relations executive) Andrew Parker used to get calls from Labor staffers as well about upgrades.
    “If there’s senate inquiry and Alan Joyce goes he’s going to get asked.
    _____________________
    Hold your horses. It’s not over yet.
    ………………………
    Maybe, maybe not. Certainly can’t reach that conclusion on any proper parsing of the passage you quote from the herald scum.

    It is clear from the passage that Andrew Parker, whoever he is, didn’t take calls from the PM or his office because he got calls (allegedly) from labor staffers “as well.” The rest is just hearsay on hearsay.

    The Murdochs and their minions are having an attack of the sads because their carefully crafted smear campaign has fallen in a smouldering heap.

    Btw, the latest update is, ‘no phone calls, texts or emails’.

  15. pied piper @ #1064 Thursday, October 31st, 2024 – 7:35 pm

    Albo had a meeting today with his colleagues to try and calm the horses.
    In witness protection today will come out of hiding soon which will help libs as he is the gift that week after week keeps giving via own goals.

    And you got this information from where?

    I guess I must have been seeing things when I saw footage of the PM today at the airport.

    When did ‘witness protection’ start happening in the open in front of TV cameras, dropkick?

  16. ‘People were freaking out?’

    I bet they are because if said whistleblower has colluded with Aston to bring Albo down they’re going to find themselves in deep shite.
    If it was well known, common knowledge, stating everyone knew wouldn’t you think the Murdoch rags would have pounced on it long before now?
    The language used in that statement sounds exaggerated & panicked.

  18. Because Bridgey has updated her Register of Pecuniary Interests to finally declare the 2 other upgrades she had miraculously overlooked until now that’s okay then?

    I bet Double Standards Pete doesn’t demand HER resignation.

  21. Dee @ #1067 Thursday, October 31st, 2024 – 7:42 pm

    ‘People were freaking out?’

    I bet they are because if said whistleblower has colluded with Aston to bring Albo down they’re going to find themselves in deep shite.
    If it was well known, common knowledge, stating everyone knew wouldn’t you think the Murdoch rags would have pounced on it long before now?
    The language used in that statement sounds exaggerated & panicked.

    Doubling Down on the lie appears to be…telling. 😐

  25. All the pigs have got their snouts in the trough. One looks up and sees another one. Decides to blow the whistle on him. Lots more whistle blowing as they all look up. Silence ensues. Back to the trough.

  27. Taylormade

    Yes, tiger snakes galore!
    One arm of our family is spread far & wide in the western districts.
    Colac to Warrnambool.
    And funny enough half your gravatar bears the same name. lol

  28. If it was well known, common knowledge, stating everyone knew wouldn’t you think the Murdoch rags would have pounced on it long before now?

    Er, … yeah, funny that.
    Could it be that the Murdoch business model since about 1960 has been standing over the Labor government of the day?
    They didn’t break this scandal, but had to be aware of Albo’s expectation of entitlement?

  29. Taylormadesays:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 7:21 pm
    Dutton’s private flight to the Bali memorial service reminds me of Shorten using Richard Pratt’s jet to get to Beaconsfield. The reason makes a difference.
    ====================================================

    Facts also make a difference too. Shorten wasn’t even a politician when he took those trips. He also took most of those trips with his first wife. Who was Richard Pratt’s god daughter. He only got to come along because he was with her. It had nothing to do with favours and influence. Unlike in Dutton’s and Gina’s cases

  32. C@tmommasays:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 7:34 pm
    Lol. Dutton: “My free trip to Bali, provided by Gina Reinhart on her private jet, didn’t cost the taxpayers any money.”

    Yet.
    ===============================================

    There is always a “quid pro quo”. Though currently Dutton and the LNP are trying to sell their corruption as being a measure to save taxpayers money. Funny, even though the previous LNP Government was our most corrupt ever government. They never achieved a budget surplus. Suggesting Dutton’s belief in corruption cutting taxpayers costs doesn’t stack up.

  34. Lars Von Triersays:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 8:01 pm
    Oh Entropy less than a week of your return and your relapsing into old habits.
    ====================================================

    Since i’ve been back the majority of your comments have been about me. So who exactly is relapsing into old habits? and how did you ever cope when i was away?

  35. Entropy at 7.55pm

    Facts also make a difference too. Shorten wasn’t even a politician when he took those trips. He also took most of those trips with his first wife. Who was Richard Pratt’s god daughter. He only got to come along because he was with her. It had nothing to do with favours and influence. Unlike in Dutton’s and Gina’s cases

    ————————

    Correction – Shorten wasn’t a *parliamentarian then. The bloke was and had been a politician for a very long time before he entered Parliament.

  36. Stinkersays:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 8:11 pm
    Entropy at 7.55pm

    Facts also make a difference too. Shorten wasn’t even a politician when he took those trips. He also took most of those trips with his first wife. Who was Richard Pratt’s god daughter. He only got to come along because he was with her. It had nothing to do with favours and influence. Unlike in Dutton’s and Gina’s cases

    ————————

    Correction – Shorten wasn’t a *parliamentarian then. The bloke was and had been a politician for a very long time before he entered Parliament.
    ======================================================

    If you want to characterise union officials as politicians that your choice. The fact is his influence with Pratt at the time was all to do with his spouse at the time and not his union position.

  37. shellbell: “The point of trick or treaters is for supervising parents to become prospective buyers of your house”
    ——————————————————————————–
    What a brilliant idea! I’ll keep it in mind. 🙂

  38. So the wealthy lady who takes requests from the staff of Nuclear Pete to provide Nuclear Pete with a plane to travel on (and to save the taxpayer) has opened the cheque book for MinRes, an oil and gas business, which Company is embroiled in a complex tax evasion action by the ATO
    I wonder if that will make the front pages?
    Nuclear Pete’s friend provides support to a Company which is alleged to have evaded tax
    Who would have thought
    And that alleged tax evader using offshore tax free havens is invested in oil and gas
    Questions need to be asked of Nuclear Pete in regard who he associates with and why
    And Shorten’s first wife was the daughter of who? So was Shorten as the son in law an emissary for his then father in law. The more you muddy with allegation the more FACTS come to light

  39. Yes Entropy, Shorten never curried favour with business types, he only ever sat at Pratt’s table as a dutiful husband.

    You can’t actually be that blindly partisan and naive, can you?

  41. Stinkersays:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 8:20 pm
    Yes Entropy, Shorten never curried favour with business types, he only ever sat at Pratt’s table as a dutiful husband.

    You can’t actually be that blindly partisan and naive, can you?
    ====================================================

    I never said that. All i said was he was at Pratt’s table because of who his spouse was. He was not there because Pratt wanted to curry favour with him. It was his spouse who Pratt would do anything for not Shorten.

    This issue is about business people currying favour with politicians. I’m pointing out that with Shorten and Pratt involving those flights in the 1990’s it was not the case.

  42. Entropysays:

    I never said that. All i said was he was at Pratt’s table because of who his spouse was. He was not there because Pratt wanted to curry favour with him. It was his spouse who Pratt would do anything for not Shorten.
    _______________
    And of course Visy had absolutely no dealings with the AWU. 🙂

  43. Why so cynical, dave? Entropy has just explained that Bill was only ever there sitting at the kid’s table while his wife swapped stories with the Pratts.

  44. It’s the Albo pick n’stick club on here.

    My favourites in the last 72 hours were Goll basically saying of course he done it (via staff) and so what and D&M claiming Aston was unhinged Godwin Grech style. Boer distinguished mention for hoping everyone who had the audacity to question Albo gets sued.

    As Lenin said democracy is so precious it must be rationed.

  45. davesays:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 8:35 pm
    Entropysays:

    I never said that. All i said was he was at Pratt’s table because of who his spouse was. He was not there because Pratt wanted to curry favour with him. It was his spouse who Pratt would do anything for not Shorten.
    _______________
    And of course Visy had absolutely no dealings with the AWU.
    ====================================================

    That’s your opinion. Personally i think Pratt had Shorten at his dinner table at times because he was Debbie Beale’s partner at the time. If you believe it was because he was a union official. Can you provide any proof that was the reason? Did Pratt often invite other union officials and provide flights for them too?

  48. davesays:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 8:46 pm
    I don’t care Entropy. I haven’t placed myself as an online defender of politicians. All I see is the possibilities.
    =============================================

    He was a union official and not a politician at the time. As far as my definition of politician is concerned though.

  49. Given the “upgrade” allegations date over more than a decade and that the former Qantas CEO was forced from that position how long ago with Albanese being Labor leader for 6 years now (since Shorten lost the Negative Gearing, Capital Gains Tax, Franking Credits election the Greens are now crying about on behalf of the Liberal Party looking to wedge the ALP to a losing policy) why a headline now re a “whistleblower” by the Trump supporter Murdoch rag? You would have thought it would have been the headline over a decade ago when Albanese was a Minister then a contender (successfully) for the leadership then the leader during an election campaign (noting the press Albanese received during that campaign including over his support for wage increases – remember? So if this was public knowledge why no attack at those times?)
    There is also an article on the ABC website re inflation and the blame game The article is accurate and informative
    In regards Shorten, Richard’s then widow hosted a fund raising function for Shorten as ALP leader. The media went ape at the time alleging Shorten was associating out of his league and Jeanie should instead associate with the better class of people from the Liberal Party. You can check it out

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