Morgan: 50.5-49.5 to Labor (open thread)

Morgan also finds support for the monarchy at a high in the wake of the royal visit, while RedBridge offers federal voting intention results from Queensland.

Moving on from Queensland, up to a point, three items of polling to relate:

• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor’s two-party lead in from 52-48 to 50.5-49.5, from primary votes of Labor 30% (down two), Coalition 37.5% (up one), Greens 14% (up half) and One Nation 5.5% (steady). Based on 2022 election flows, Labor leads 51.5-48.5, in from 53-47. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1687.

• Roy Morgan also has a result on republicanism that points to the brittleness of the support for the concept that polls generally record when the issue is out of the limelight. In the wake of the royal visit, a forced-response SMS poll of 1312 respondents conducted last Tuesday and Wednesday broke 57-43 in favour of retaining the monarchy.

• RedBridge Group has a timely result of federal voting intention from Queensland (hat tip to comments regular Nadia88) that has Labor on 28%, compared with 27.4% at the 2022; the Coalition at 41%, compared with 39.6%; the Greens at 13%, compared with 12.9%; and One Nation at 10%, compared with 7.5%. The poll was conducted several weeks ago, from October 4 to 16, from a substantial sample of 2315, and the full release contains detailed demographic breakdowns. It also finds Anthony Albanese on 34% approval and 53% disapproval; Peter Dutton on 39% and 42%; Steven Miles on 35% and 35%; and David Crisafulli on 40% and 31%.

• If you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can read my review of the Queensland election wash-up.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,896 comments on “Morgan: 50.5-49.5 to Labor (open thread)”

Comments Page 21 of 38
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  1. Whoever is POTUS next week, Australia should reevaluate its relationship with that broken country.

    We are in DANGEROUSLY deep waters with them.

  2. ‘billie says:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 4:33 pm

    This is a poorly written sob story

    “She goes shopping with a 2 litre backpack” where is the sub-editor because I bet she carries a 20 litre backpack

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/shoppers-still-on-the-hunt-for-cost-of-living-relief-despite-inflation-drop-20241030-p5kmn0.html
    ——————
    You would think The Guardian would get its tear jerkers right.
    But no.
    She has around $200 worth of face and ear piercings.

  3. For anyone interested in the state of North Korean soldiers in Russia and Ukraine (from NK News, which is a serious source mainly aimed at diplomats etc):

    https://www.nknews.org/category/north-korea-news-podcast/latest/north-korean-soldiers-in-kursk-rok-retaliation-and-propaganda-leaflets-in-seoul/948971

    Key points from South Korean intelligence:
    – It looks like North Korean soldiers are in Kursk.
    – Rather than special forces, these seem to be 18–20-year-old kids, who have minimal training and are just going to be cannon fodder for the Russian army.

    Also discussion of the possibility that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine becoming a proxy war for North Korea vs South Korea, which may have seemed absurd a few years ago.

  4. I wonder if Jake Sullivan is celebrating today.

    Roman Sheremeta @rshereme
    ·
    12h
    On this day in 2001 Ukraine eliminated its last nuclear delivery vehicle.

    Their reward was being invaded by russia, having cities bombed into dust while the West expresses “serious concerns” and rants about “escalation management.”

  5. @BW, its a SMH piece, not GA. If she’s buying her face metal on teemu or shien or whatever its probably under a buck a piece. The girl is working 3 shit gigs – I’m happy to accept that she doesn’t have buckets of cash. Exactly the sort of worker that should be in the ALP, but here’s their biggest supporter giving her shit for having piercings.

  6. Victoria’s V/Line reports highest ever patronage

    V/Line has reported its highest ever patronage after the government capped fares on all regional train and coach services in Victoria.

    =========

    In 2022 I caught the train from Melbourne to Port Fairy, the return fare was $94 and there was a lot of travel on buses. Given that incomes in rural areas are much lower than Melbourne incomes, capping fares at $10.60 per day to travel anywhere in the state is a massive social reform

    I bet specialist hospitals used to provide lots of travel vouchers for rural patients

  7. LNP to change tack on current attack line i suspect. Will claim the Government is costing the tax payers money by not maximising free flights made available by wealthy benefactors. Something no one can accuse Dutton of doing. Who flies air Gina whenever possible to save the taxpayer paying.

  8. BKsays:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 4:50 pm
    From David Rowe
    ______________________
    That is a beeyouteaful image of Her Majesty, The Queen Cowlifa Gina. Really something

  9. ‘banquo911 says:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 4:45 pm

    @BW, its a SMH piece, not GA. If she’s buying her face metal on teemu or shien or whatever its probably under a buck a piece.’
    —————
    Online pricing for making the hole is around $40 a go. She has at least seven. I suppose she might be DIY. She does have enough to buy an orange so we are probably not going to get the scurvy go round in this article.

  10. ‘BK says:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 4:50 pm

    From David Rowe.
    =================
    haha. ripper. Are there enough petards to go round?

  11. You people do realize you are not doing Albo any favors by continually making comparisons between him and Dutton, right?

    I honestly don’t know how you can think how this either lowers Dutton’s image or raises Albo’s in anyone’s mind. If anything, the idea that “they both got freebies, so let’s all just shrug and move on” damages Albo a lot more than it does Dutton. To my mind, it just makes it obvious you can’t trust either of them.

    Some are now calling for barring all upgrades and Chairman’s Lounge privileges (and their equivalents in other airlines) for politicians, their staffers, and public servants. Now that’s something everyone (except the beneficiaries) could agree with. We either pay for it with increased taxes or we pay for it with increased flight costs for everyone else … but be clear that it is us that pays for it, not the government and not Qantas.

    Get rid of the trough and it won’t matter so much that so many of our politicians are pigs.

  12. BKsays:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 5:00 pm
    The cost of Dutton’s flight on Queen Gina’s private jet was peanuts.
    To Gina, at least!
    ===============================================

    If Dutton gets to be PM. Expect “gilded wing victory” statues dedicated to Gina across the country.

  13. If upgradegate results in far less unnecessary air travel and more video-conferencing for our political class, then it’s well worth it.

    Their collective carbon footprint would be shameful.

  14. I prefer to focus on the real evil in town: Dutton.

    He was the bastard who spent ten years suppressing real wages.
    Dutton the bastard who systematically attacks minorities.
    Dutton the bastard who systematically sexualizes policy issues involving migrants, asylum seekers and Indigenous people.
    Dutton the bastard who spent ten years fighting any and all climate action.
    Dutton whose LOTO contribution is to delay and block, delay and block.
    Dutton the bastard who spent ten years gutting the unions.
    Dutton the bastard who spent ten years running down the NDIS.
    Dutton the bastard who spent ten years running down Medicare.
    Dutton the bastard who spent ten years gutting the ABC.
    Dutton the bastard who helped stack the AAT with bosses’ toadies and lickspittles.
    Dutton the bastard who left us with a trillion dollar debt and a disordered economy.
    Dutton the bastard who did nothing at all about the way the housing market was distorted – while hoovering up profits in his personal empire.

    But you just go ahead and do your thing: slag Albanese. It is all you have ever done and it is all you will ever do.

  15. ‘Fellow Greens MP Max Chandler-Mather last year said he had shunned a Chairman’s Lounge membership and refuses to travel business class.’

    Further in the article..

    ‘Bandt was spotted in September flying business class from Melbourne to Canberra seated next to Senator Jacqui Lambie.’

    ‘Albanese government ministers Tim Watts and Catherine King were on the same flight but were with the masses in economy class.’

    I don’t have a problem with the private lounge or business class seats but you get the drift.

  16. Player Onesays:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 5:06 pm
    You people do realize you are not doing Albo any favors by continually making comparisons between him and Dutton, right?
    ====================================================

    While most politicians got upgrades. Along with media people etc. Getting your whole flight for free via a wealthy benefactor. Is a much higher level of potential corruption i would say. There is no evidence Albo ever did this. So the comparison with Dutton for getting free flights is with people like Cormann, Bishop (both of them) or Barnaby. Not with Albo.

  17. P1….
    Strikes me you want both sides of the coin when it comes to the upgrades.
    You, on the one hand…….. Albo = All bad, looks terrible, lurks and perks etc., etc……..
    In response to what appears to be similar actions by the LOTO – You come up with the “They are as bad as one another” line.
    What a cop out.

  18. Lars Von Triersays:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 5:13 pm
    A poem for Entropy – given his penchant for “if”

    https://poets.org/poem/if
    =================================================

    If only someone had called a federal election on the 9th of November. Someone wouldn’t be looking such a fool.

  19. Gina Rinehart goes out of her way to employ Aborigines
    at her companies.
    Labor/Unions hate that stuff.
    —————–
    Good luck to that Namatjira guy though.
    No doubt Labor fans will be falling over one another to buy his artwork.

  20. Player One says:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 5:25 pm

    Boerwar @ #1023 Thursday, October 31st, 2024 – 5:15 pm

    Geez integrity, not getting any bites today? Must do better with you gaslighting and trolling.

    He gets you every time. ‘
    ==================
    Geez integrity not getting any gaslighting bites? Must do better.

  21. Tricot @ #1025 Thursday, October 31st, 2024 – 5:19 pm

    P1….
    Strikes me you want both sides of the coin when it comes to the upgrades.
    You, on the one hand…….. Albo = All bad, looks terrible, lurks and perks etc., etc……..
    In response to what appears to be similar actions by the LOTO – You come up with the “They are as bad as one another” line.
    What a cop out.

    But it’s not me using that line. It is those defending Albo. I am merely pointing out it is probably not as effective a defence as they seem to think.

  22. Arky

    Really excellent piece by Bernie Sanders. If some of you screaming anti-Labor lefties won’t take it from me that defeating the Trumps and Duttons should be your priority #1 rather than scragging Democrats/Labor over Gaza, take it from Bernie.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/oct/30/bernie-sanders-israel-gaza-harris-trump

    Thanks. Bernie Sanders also sums up my thinking.
    He is a voice of sense:

    ….
    And that is why I am doing everything I can to block US military aid and offensive weapons sales to the rightwing extremist Netanyahu government in Israel. And I know that many of you share those feelings. And some of you are saying, “How can I vote for Kamala Harris if she is supporting this terrible war?” And that is a very fair question.

    And let me give you my best answer. And that is that even on this issue, Donald Trump and his rightwing friends are worse. In the Senate and in Congress Republicans have worked overtime to block humanitarian aid to the starving children in Gaza. The president and vice-president both support getting as much humanitarian aid into Gaza as soon as possible.

    Trump has said that Netanyahu is doing a good job and that Biden is holding him back. He has suggested that the Gaza Strip would make excellent beachfront property for development. It is no wonder Netanyahu prefers to have Donald Trump in office.
    …………..
    But even more importantly, and this I promise you, after Harris wins we will, together, do everything we can to change US policy toward Netanyahu – including an immediate ceasefire, the return of all hostages, a surge of massive humanitarian aid, the stopping of settler attacks on the West Bank, and the rebuilding of Gaza for the Palestinian people.

    And let me be clear. We will have, in my view, a much better chance of changing US policy with Harris than with Trump, who is extremely close to Netanyahu and sees him as a like-minded, rightwing extremist ally.

    But let me also say this, and I deal with this every single day as a US senator. As important as Gaza is, and as strongly as many of us feel about this issue, it is not the only issue at stake in this election.

    If Trump wins, women in this country will suffer an enormous setback and lose the ability to control their own bodies. That is not acceptable.

    If Trump wins, to be honest with you, the struggle against the climate crisis is over.

    Anyway, the Guardian does not have a paywall. I would very strongly recommend reading this great summary of what is at stake.

  23. Interesting. Apparently it is hard to get commercial flights between places like Rocky (Rockhampton) and Canberra / Sydney etc.

    Mr Bandt used two private jets during the 2022 federal election campaign, landing tax payers with the $23,000 bill.

    One flight was between Queensland regional centres Townsville and Rockhampton on March 7 but he also boarded a $15,000 private plane along the well-travelled Brisbane to Canberra route to attend his party’s election campaign launch.
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/greens-leader-s-extraordinary-response-over-qantas-perks/ar-AA1t28tu?apiversion=v2&noservercache=1&domshim=1&renderwebcomponents=1&wcseo=1&batchservertelemetry=1&noservertelemetry=1

    Also, it is the Daily Mail, but given it refers to stuff on the public record, it is likely accurate.

    But also, be careful what you wish for guys. The politician bashing is fun for the whole family, but it has also been a project of Rupert Murdoch’s since the late 1970s.

    Why? Well it erodes trust in democracy, and this is Ruperts overarching project – to see oligarchs such as himself in charge of world affairs.

    If Adam Bandt had needed to rely on his own resources to make the flights above, then they probably would not have happened. And that would not have been good for democracy.

    This is one of the ways in which the US got to the stage that only very wealthy and successful people can even think about putting their hand up to be president.

  24. frednksays:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 3:55 pm
    [I’ve never had an upgrade to a private plane.]

    Plenty of PBers are on their “private plane”!

  25. “A poem for Entropy – given his penchant for “if”

    Lars Von Trier, I have no problem with Entropy but I have a huge problem with Kipling and his racist imperialist ‘white mans burden’ bullshit and its entire proposition that Europe’s god awful bloody colonial conquest was all about the white race being morally obliged to civilise the non-white peoples of the world.

  26. Griffsays:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 3:57 pm
    frednk says:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 3:55 pm
    [I’ve never had an upgrade to a private plane.]

    _______

    [But have you ever solicited one? ]

    Plenty of PBers have “solicited” scorn and derision while on their “private plane”

  27. Douglas and Milko says:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 5:47 pm

    ….

    But also, be careful what you wish for guys. The politician bashing is fun for the whole family, but it has also been a project of Rupert Murdoch’s since the late 1970s.

    Why? Well it erodes trust in democracy, and this is Ruperts overarching project – to see oligarchs such as himself in charge of world affairs.

    If Adam Bandt had needed to rely on his own resources to make the flights above, then they probably would not have happened. And that would not have been good for democracy.

    This is one of the ways in which the US got to the stage that only very wealthy and successful people can even think about putting their hand up to be president.

    ________

    Hear! Hear! One can win a battle (a small skirmish even), but the war is ongoing.

  28. Legitimate travel for legitimate political purposes should be fully government funded. If that means hiring a private plane because there are no commercial flights available, then fine. If it is decided that on commercial flights this should always be business class (hence eliminating completely the need for any “upgrades”) then also fine.

    It is travel and related perks – whether political or personal – being funded by corporations dependent on government decisions that should be absolutely forbidden.

    No exceptions. The PM has a goddam fleet of nine Air Force planes at his disposal, FFS!

  29. Player One 5.06
    [Get rid of the trough and it won’t matter so much that so many of our politicians are pigs.]

    Get rid of the trough and the pigs will find another trough.
    Better the trough you know!

  30. Player Onesays:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 6:01 pm
    Legitimate travel for legitimate political purposes should be fully government funded.
    =====================================================

    Who decides what is legitimate travel?
    Weddings?
    Funerals?
    Parties?
    Buying an investment property on the Gold Coast?

  31. Entropy @ #1042 Thursday, October 31st, 2024 – 6:09 pm

    Player Onesays:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 6:01 pm
    Legitimate travel for legitimate political purposes should be fully government funded.
    =====================================================

    Who decides what is legitimate travel?
    Weddings?
    Funerals?
    Parties?
    Buying an investment property on the Gold Coast?

    Not you 🙂

  32. Player Onesays:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 6:01 pm

    Legitimate travel for legitimate political purposes should be fully government funded. If that means hiring a private plane because there are no commercial flights available, then fine. If it is decided that on commercial flights this should always be business class (hence eliminating completely the need for any “upgrades”) then also fine.

    It is travel and related perks – whether political or personal – being funded by corporations dependent on government decisions that should be absolutely forbidden.

    No exceptions. The PM has a goddam fleet of nine Air Force planes at his disposal, FFS

    ______________________

    I generally agree with this, though I suspect we have gotten into the current mess because of some false sense of modesty around “public costs” specifically on business class flights. I agree it is better just to make business class by default and be strictly against upgrades.

    I would expand and just make it that any flights related to work (ministerial, corporate engagement, constituent) should just be publically funded, and work to a stricter financial firewall between private and work related activities.

    I would add the obvious of dropping chairman’s lounge, though i suspect the really deep conspiratorial reason is that … it’s a safe space to not be harassed flying home family. Real political maturity may mean treating airports and standard lounges (business is fine) as “neutral zones” where everyone agrees not to harass or ambush each other.

  33. Player One
    [Legitimate travel for legitimate political purposes should be fully government funded.]

    Lots of voters will like the opportunity to claim their legitimate political purpose travel if fully government funded.
    Lars often asks me to dinner to liven up the proceedings and as such the trip should be fully funded.
    Whatever the rules Player One, someone will have an ace up their sleeve, they will deny it of course, as the the others demand they resign.
    Lars pretends about the ace up the sleeve.

  34. goll @ #1045 Thursday, October 31st, 2024 – 6:25 pm

    Lots of voters will like the opportunity to claim their legitimate political purpose travel if fully government funded.

    I’d suggest setting up a panel within an independent government organization (my suggestion would be the AEC) to rule on what does and does not constitute “legitimate political purposes”. If you can convince them, then fine.

  35. I would think it would cost an astronomical amount of money to take an airforce jet. At times it may be necessary.
    Someone may have a better idea on the costs.

  36. Time to look at who was quiet in Albo’s hour of need:

    No public statements of support from:

    Claire O’Neill
    Michelle Rowland
    Tony Burke
    Don Farrell
    Tania Plibersek

    Hmmm…

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