Morgan: 50.5-49.5 to Labor (open thread)

Morgan also finds support for the monarchy at a high in the wake of the royal visit, while RedBridge offers federal voting intention results from Queensland.

Moving on from Queensland, up to a point, three items of polling to relate:

• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor’s two-party lead in from 52-48 to 50.5-49.5, from primary votes of Labor 30% (down two), Coalition 37.5% (up one), Greens 14% (up half) and One Nation 5.5% (steady). Based on 2022 election flows, Labor leads 51.5-48.5, in from 53-47. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1687.

• Roy Morgan also has a result on republicanism that points to the brittleness of the support for the concept that polls generally record when the issue is out of the limelight. In the wake of the royal visit, a forced-response SMS poll of 1312 respondents conducted last Tuesday and Wednesday broke 57-43 in favour of retaining the monarchy.

• RedBridge Group has a timely result of federal voting intention from Queensland (hat tip to comments regular Nadia88) that has Labor on 28%, compared with 27.4% at the 2022; the Coalition at 41%, compared with 39.6%; the Greens at 13%, compared with 12.9%; and One Nation at 10%, compared with 7.5%. The poll was conducted several weeks ago, from October 4 to 16, from a substantial sample of 2315, and the full release contains detailed demographic breakdowns. It also finds Anthony Albanese on 34% approval and 53% disapproval; Peter Dutton on 39% and 42%; Steven Miles on 35% and 35%; and David Crisafulli on 40% and 31%.

• If you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can read my review of the Queensland election wash-up.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,896 comments on “Morgan: 50.5-49.5 to Labor (open thread)”

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  1. From The Guardian

    ‘Henry Belot

    Victorian government cuts more than 130 bushfire forest service positions

    The Victorian government will cut more than 130 positions from its bushfire forest service and close six regional locations, acknowledging budget restraints….’
    =================================
    Shut down native forestry and this.

    And cut down on forest track maintenance.

    And remove the private industry machines and people.

    They had better cross their fingers that nobody dies this summer. It is increasingly developing into the run up to a hot, dry and windy xmas.

  2. Rex Douglassays:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 2:17 pm
    [Has Labor or the L/NP responded to the NACC/robodebt debacle yet ?]

    You’re on top of it Rex.
    Keep us posted.

  3. Given Nuclear Pete now concedes “his office” rang Gina asking for a plane to be made available to him, then defends by saying the government refused him a plane and that by using Gina’s plane it saved taxpayer’s money, who believes anything Nuclear Pete may say?
    His MO is to throw unsubstantiated rubbish – assisted by media The question is if I ring Gina, saying I am from Nuclear Pete’s office Gina will provide me with what I request? And what is in it for Gina and her business interests?
    What businesses is Gina in again – noting she is lining the pockets of the legal profession in her never ending fights with her children Will Nuclear Pete provide her with a reference saying what a wonderful mother she is?

  4. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has conceded his office asked billionaire Gina Rinehart for free flights from Queensland to Sydney and back for a Bali bombing memorial service in 2022.
    The flights from Rockhampton to Sydney and back to Mackay were arranged between Dutton and Rinehart’s offices, the opposition leader confirmed at a press conference in Perth on Thursday.
    “I couldn’t get a commercial flight together in time,” Dutton said. He said the government also declined to make a taxpayer-funded VIP jet available. “They played games, and they didn’t offer that flight,” he said. Quotes for a charter flight came in around $40,000, Dutton said.

  5. Oops. So Bridgette Mckenzie has had a few freebie flights not declared on the Parliamentary Register.

    Hafta resign then, so sad.
    ——————-
    Dutts didn’t sink the boot into Albo, there’s no smoking gun linking him to Joe Aston, so … nothingburger.

  6. And the other reference to be queried is the “free flights” the upgrades apply to. Did I read that over half the flights under question by the (now disgraced) Liberal Party identity who was in the employ of 9 Entertainment were made during the Albanese/Shorten leadership vote and that all those flights were paid for by the ALP? So not free flights – in fact which flights were provided for free, saving the taxpayer money (as Gina did for Nuclear Pete)?

  7. “Rex Douglassays:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 2:17 pm
    [Has Labor or the L/NP responded to the NACC/robodebt debacle yet ?]”

    Brereton was appointed by Albanese and Dreyfus, in consultation with Dutton. He was only appointed to protect the likes of them, not because he was the best person for the job.

  8. Holdenhillbillysays:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 2:37 pm
    Liberal MP Jenny Ware has declared three previously undisclosed flight upgrades she received.
    Politicians have begun combing through their own records for missing declarations, including the shadow transport minister.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-31/liberal-mp-adds-undisclosed-flight-upgrades/104543154
    ___________________________________
    This is part of the problem with pollies receiving gifts at all. Clearly they don’t understand what is declarable and what isnt – and this leaves the entire institution of government open to invisible outside corporate influence.
    It isn’t enough that these ratbags should be declaring gifts – gifts need to be banned (even small sentimental ones).
    The public service has brutally strict rules on this – they need to be expanded to pollies on pain of expulsion.

    Trust is government is too important to be squandered on freebies.

  9. Nuclear Pete is on Ginas payroll. Thats why he is going the nuclear route to destroy renewables and extend the life of fossil fuels. Just like Abbott was on Murdochs payroll to fuck up the NBN for the sake of Murdochs overpriced Foxtel TV.

    Then favour returned:
    Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott has been nominated to the board of global media giant Fox Corporation in 2023.

    Now Foxtel is up for sale as a failure:
    It’s official: News Corp’s Foxtel is on the market. The bargain basement sale of Australia’s declining pay-TV monopoliser and struggling streamer sounds the last post on the most ambitious play by Rupert Murdoch.

    Once central to the Murdoch dream, Foxtel now no longer fits. It’s just the last piece left over from Rupert’s grand 1990s vision to build a global television subscription network, dominating the supply chain from content creation to distribution, burrowing into your eyeballs through your wallet.

    It’s unlikely Foxtel will long outlast the sell-off, with the rumoured private equity buyer expected to do what private equity does: strip it for parts. Sell what it can. Milk dry what it can’t sell. Close what it can’t milk.

    Just 20 years ago, Murdoch’s global vision seemed within his capacious grasp. In Australia, Foxtel had beaten competitors to be the sole distributor at scale, with control of key sports rights (and joint ownership of the National Rugby League) essential to building audiences. He’d also secured a long-term lease to build a major production studio at Sydney’s Moore Park.

  10. It took a while for Albanese to twig, but it seems Dutton still has not twigged.

    From https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/prime-minister-denies-ever-seeking-travel-upgrades-from-qantas-20241031-p5kmry.html

    Dutton conceded his office asked billionaire Gina Rinehart’s team for free flights from Queensland to Sydney and back for a Bali bombing memorial service in 2022.

    “And Gina Rinehart’s plane was available free of cost to the taxpayer,” he said.

    “I’ve declared all of that

    “Free of cost”. Sure. A taxpayer giving a politician a brown paper bag is “free of cost” in the dollar-value sense.

  11. Vale Matt Peacock:

    [‘Former ABC journalist Matt Peacock has died aged 72. Peacock worked for a range of programs and was the broadcaster’s foreign correspondent in London, Washington and New York. He also authored several books including Killer Company, a history of the former Australian asbestos manufacturer James Hardie.] – Aunty

  12. Holdenhillbilly says:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 2:36 pm

    Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has conceded his office asked billionaire Gina Rinehart for free flights from Queensland to Sydney and back for a Bali bombing memorial service in 2022.
    The flights from Rockhampton to Sydney and back to Mackay were arranged between Dutton and Rinehart’s offices, the opposition leader confirmed at a press conference in Perth on Thursday.
    “I couldn’t get a commercial flight together in time,” Dutton said. He said the government also declined to make a taxpayer-funded VIP jet available. “They played games, and they didn’t offer that flight,” he said. Quotes for a charter flight came in around $40,000, Dutton said.

    ________

    The 1,201,652 Australians visiting Bali in 2023 are thinking “How can someone, with paid help, not manage to book a flight to Bali? And he wants to run the country” 🙂

  13. banquo911 says:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 2:43 pm
    Holdenhillbillysays:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 2:37 pm
    Liberal MP Jenny Ware has declared three previously undisclosed flight upgrades she received.
    Politicians have begun combing through their own records for missing declarations, including the shadow transport minister.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-10-31/liberal-mp-adds-undisclosed-flight-upgrades/104543154
    ___________________________________
    This is part of the problem with pollies receiving gifts at all. Clearly they don’t understand what is declarable and what isnt – and this leaves the entire institution of government open to invisible outside corporate influence.
    It isn’t enough that these ratbags should be declaring gifts – gifts need to be banned (even small sentimental ones).
    The public service has brutally strict rules on this – they need to be expanded to pollies on pain of expulsion.

    Trust is government is too important to be squandered on freebies.

    ___________

    You mentioned that the public service has strict rules on this. So why do the Secretaries, and NACC higher ups we now hear, have membership to the Qantas Chairman’s Lounge? Is that in the rules?

  14. “They had better cross their fingers that nobody dies this summer. It is increasingly developing into the run up to a hot, dry and windy xmas.”

    It seems an incredibly short sighted thing to make cuts to, yes.

    The Libs and media will make the link from money wasted on the Comm Games debacle to the spending cuts to deaths and it will be, for once, entirely legit criticism.

    What are they doing?

  15. Griffsays:
    You mentioned that the public service has strict rules on this. So why do the Secretaries, and NACC higher ups we now hear, have membership to the Qantas Chairman’s Lounge? Is that in the rules?
    ____________________________________

    Comped airline lounge passes seem to have a specific carve out for when they are used for official duties. If I were the guy though, I’d remove the carve out – its a gift which may be used to influence an official’s performance, shouldn’t be accepted.

  16. banquo911 says:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 3:16 pm
    Griffsays:
    You mentioned that the public service has strict rules on this. So why do the Secretaries, and NACC higher ups we now hear, have membership to the Qantas Chairman’s Lounge? Is that in the rules?
    ____________________________________

    Comped airline lounge passes seem to have a specific carve out for when they are used for official duties. If I were the guy though, I’d remove the carve out – its a gift which may be used to influence an official’s performance, shouldn’t be accepted.

    _________

    Very peculiar that this particular gift is acceptable. I agree, let’s tighten the screw 🙂

  17. Oh no! Is that Gina’s egg splattered all over Dutton’s (and others in the Opposition) face/s?
    If so, where is the outrage, the “He must resign!”, “Dead man walking!” stuff from our local LNP/Green Jeer Squad?

  18. Many already know this, but the two major parties and their protectionist establishment are treating Australian’s with contempt.

  19. Tricotsays:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 3:32 pm
    Oh no! Is that Gina’s egg splattered all over Dutton’s (and others in the Opposition) face/s?
    If so, where is the outrage, the “He must resign!”, “Dead man walking!” stuff from our local LNP/Green Jeer Squad?
    ___________________________
    Have a read through maybe – its in there, along with scathing remarks from commenters that thought that this sort of grifting was nbd when it was albo in the limelight.

  20. Albo, and especially Dutton are nowhere near worthy of leading this country.

    Realistically, voters would be wise to deliver a hung parliament.

  21. banquo911 says:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 3:38 pm
    Tricotsays:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 3:32 pm
    Oh no! Is that Gina’s egg splattered all over Dutton’s (and others in the Opposition) face/s?
    If so, where is the outrage, the “He must resign!”, “Dead man walking!” stuff from our local LNP/Green Jeer Squad?
    ___________________________
    Have a read through maybe – its in there, along with scathing remarks from commenters that thought that this sort of grifting was nbd when it was albo in the limelight.

    _______

    Hardly. A feather dusting at best 🙂

  22. 21m ago
    15.25 AEDT
    Benita Kolovos
    Benita Kolovos
    Victoria’s V/Line reports highest ever patronage

    V/Line has reported its highest ever patronage after the government capped fares on all regional train and coach services in Victoria.

    In its 2023-24 report, tabled in parliament today, the regional rail provider said 23.8m trips were taken in the financial year – the highest patronage ever recorded on the V/Line rail network.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2024/oct/31/greens-unlimited-mental-health-sessions-medicare-report-schools-roads-politics-labor-coalition-anthony-albanese-peter-dutton-qld-vic-nsw-climate-economy

    The regional rail upgrades and fare capping were great social reforms.

  23. frednk says:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 3:55 pm
    I’ve never had an upgrade to a private plane.

    _______

    But have you ever solicited one? 😉

  24. Boerwarsays:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 3:51 pm
    Lucky she wasn’t in the NT or Qld. She’d get life.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/31/melbourne-girl-12-murder-charges-inquiry-child-protection-laws-ntwnfb
    _______________________________
    Indeed. But luck should have nothing to do with it. And bad luck will have nothing to do with the children in QLD & NT that are going to be locked up on life sentences because of the trauma, abuse, and all round shit circumstances of their upbringings. No, not bad luck – just callousness and cruelty.

  25. ‘banquo911 says:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 3:58 pm

    Boerwarsays:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 3:51 pm
    Lucky she wasn’t in the NT or Qld. She’d get life.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/31/melbourne-girl-12-murder-charges-inquiry-child-protection-laws-ntwnfb
    _______________________________
    Indeed. But luck should have nothing to do with it.
    ….’
    ===================
    Promising to jail ten year olds for life is sick.

    Just how sick will become obvious to all when they try it.

  26. A lot of people here are naive. We’re living in the real world where ‘fair’ has nothing to do with it. I’ll try an analogy. The media is the MCG. If you’re an interstate team going to play there for a premiership you need to understand certain facts.

    It’s their home ground and they play there all the time.

    You will have 90,000 people who hate you and boo you every time you touch the ball.

    The umpires are absolutely going to cheat. So in the dying moments if it’s close and if you have a chance, they will snuff it out. And no one except your fans will ever remember that you were robbed.

    The only path to victory is to be ten goals better than them. Anything less than that and you lose.

    Albanese has no chance of ever holding up the cup. He will be gone and forgotten, just like everyone else who stepped onto the ground thinking it would be a fair fight.

    Plus, he’s just another high draft pick who turned out to be rubbish. I blame the list managers.

  27. So the airline Big Fat Lie stunt has resulted the Coalition scandal bombing themselves senseless.

    What a pity.

    Adam Robin Hood Bandt and his merrie band of class warriors are strangely silent on all this.

    On form, they would be on the tarmac lying in front of planes or blockading the entrance to the Chairman’s Lounge.

    Was gibst?

  28. How would TWU rank and file members and sacked former workers feel about the cosy Albo/Alan Joyce relationship …?

    How would rank and file CFMEU members feel about Albo reaching out to Dutton of all people re their unions reform …?

    They’d be entitled to be thinking WTAF.

  29. Boerwarsays:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 3:51 pm
    Lucky she wasn’t in the NT or Qld. She’d get life.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/31/melbourne-girl-12-murder-charges-inquiry-child-protection-laws-ntwnfb

    The 12 year old was found to be not responsible for her actions.
    The same would happen in the NT or Qld.
    ——————————-
    Trying to score political points out of tragedy is sick, clearly a 12 year old with the intellectual age of a 6 year old isn’t going to be found fit to plead no matter what the sentencing laws are.

  30. Boerwar

    “ Adam Robin Hood Bandt and his merrie band of class warriors are strangely silent on all this.”
    —————
    That would be the Rentier Capitalist class.

  31. Details continue to trickle out …

    https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/anthony-albaneses-new-secret-qantas-perk-revealed/news-story/07e82938ee18b4debebe10b4d214e099

    It’s probably true that Albo declared all his upgrades. His office has been trawling through the records for days (it took so long because there have been so many upgrades over so many years) but he probably did the right thing by waiting and wouldn’t have claimed this if he wasn’t sure it was true (or at least not very easily refuted).

    However, there does seems to be a little confusion about his claims to have “never” contacted Joyce about upgrades …

    But the Prime Minister is pushing back over the suggestion he personally lobbied Mr Joyce, insisting as he told reporters on Tuesday, he only recalls direct conversations with Mr Joyce over two flights that were declared.

    Sure, we can chalk that one up to simple memory failure (after all, this has been going on for 20 years or so), or that the calls were made for other reasons and the topic of upgrades just happened to come up, or even just sloppy reporting about what Albo did or did not say in his various “carefully worded” denials.

    But according to Alston, Albo’s upgrades were not the normal “space available” upgrades routinely offered to members of the Chairman’s lounge if available, they were “guaranteed” upgrades that could only be personally approved by Joyce. This can probably be checked, and needs to be.

    Albo also didn’t declare the monetary value of the upgrades, which some have suggested could amount to a six-figure sum. That’s a heck of a lot of money to be declared just as a few innocuous “upgrades”. Ministers have resigned or been sacked over much smaller amounts.

    And as far as I can find, Albo still hasn’t explained how his son came to be a member of the Chairman’s Lounge (memberships apparently were personally approved by Joyce), or why this was not declared when it should have been according to the parliamentary rules, which require such declarations where an “appearance of a conflict of interest may be seen to exist”. There sure as heck was that!

    But the real nub of this story is not the upgrades themselves, it is the extraordinarily cosy relationship between Albo, Joyce, and Albo’s office … especially in light of the following …

    Former Qantas executive David Epstein works in Anthony Albanese’s office

    During these years he also enjoyed a close working relationship with Qantas’ former communications supremo David Epstein who had worked for Kevin Rudd and government relations executive Andrew Parker, who was well-known for organising flight upgrades for politicians and their staff.

    Indeed, at least one former Labor staffer has told news.com.au that when staff wanted to upgrade they could call Mr Albanese’s office when he was Transport minister and it would be sorted out for the right person.

    There was probably never any need for Albo to talk to Joyce “directly”. It seems there was a “hotline” between Albo’s office and Qantas.

    The upshot is that there are still questions that need to be answered.

  32. The Australian editorial page:

    First-class political warrior braces for another hard landing
    Somehow, that sounds like journos who know Albo loathe him.

  33. I think that Joe’s book may be pulped if he doesn’t share his evidence.
    (Well deserved too, as he has previously said some very rude things about the great national sport, Rugba League. )

  34. I’ve said it before and I’going to say it again.

    It’s not even about Albanese’s snout in the trough. It’s about Albanese smiling for selfies with Mr union busting, nasty right wing narcissist, illegally sacking workers, paid $150 million dollars to wreck Qantas, Alan Joyce and then doing dodgy favours.

    The court of public opinion has declared their verdict – the next popularity polls will reveal that this man is hated by the citizens.

    Alan Joyce has fucked off to where he came from but Albanese will just fuck off to his cliff side mansion after blowing away an entire generation of young potential Labor believers.

  35. ‘Eddy says:
    Thursday, October 31, 2024 at 4:26 pm

    I’ve said it before and I’going to say it again.
    ….’
    =================
    We know, we know, we know.
    First Albanese did nothing, nothing, nothing, nothing.
    Now it turns out he DID do something and it was bad, bad, bad, bad, bad.

  36. Meanwhile, fellow independent Kylea Tink said Mr Brereton’s position was “untenable”.

    “16 months after the NACC started its work, the first public figure found to have engaged in misconduct under the (NACC) legislation is the commissioner of the NACC,” Ms Tink posted on X.

    “In light of this I think the current commissioner’s position is untenable & I expect both he (and) the government to take appropriate action.”

    https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/teals-call-for-anticorruption-watchdog-reform-after-robodebt-review/news-story/481f5f56014e3ea5671167af5533f96e

    Tink saying what many are thinking.

  37. p1 still desperately working the interference on behalf of Gina’s flight buddy.
    But the gaslighting parrot has moved on to other squawks.

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