Moving on from Queensland, up to a point, three items of polling to relate:
• The weekly Roy Morgan poll has Labor’s two-party lead in from 52-48 to 50.5-49.5, from primary votes of Labor 30% (down two), Coalition 37.5% (up one), Greens 14% (up half) and One Nation 5.5% (steady). Based on 2022 election flows, Labor leads 51.5-48.5, in from 53-47. The poll was conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 1687.
• Roy Morgan also has a result on republicanism that points to the brittleness of the support for the concept that polls generally record when the issue is out of the limelight. In the wake of the royal visit, a forced-response SMS poll of 1312 respondents conducted last Tuesday and Wednesday broke 57-43 in favour of retaining the monarchy.
• RedBridge Group has a timely result of federal voting intention from Queensland (hat tip to comments regular Nadia88) that has Labor on 28%, compared with 27.4% at the 2022; the Coalition at 41%, compared with 39.6%; the Greens at 13%, compared with 12.9%; and One Nation at 10%, compared with 7.5%. The poll was conducted several weeks ago, from October 4 to 16, from a substantial sample of 2315, and the full release contains detailed demographic breakdowns. It also finds Anthony Albanese on 34% approval and 53% disapproval; Peter Dutton on 39% and 42%; Steven Miles on 35% and 35%; and David Crisafulli on 40% and 31%.
• If you’re a Crikey subscriber, you can read my review of the Queensland election wash-up.
Sometimes I have to remind myself that not everybody is paying as close attention to the US elections as I am.
Short answer: no. He is visibly dementing before our eyes.
C@T
You are right that China’s economy is in diabolical ATM. One of the official ‘fixes’ is exports.
It is all looking increasingly messy. Lithium Oxide manufacturing plants, battery manufacturing plants and EV makers are all closing their doors in China.
We are potential beneficiaries as China dumps EVs and batteries in the Australian market. New panels from China are killing the second hand panel market. Dumping galore.
However, since our energy and materials have been fundamental to both the construction boom and to the EV manufacturing oversupply situation our run as the lucky country might finally have had its day.
Who is doing all the leaking against Albo?
“And seriously, what kind of a dickwad rings the CEO of QANTUS grovelling for an upgrade from business to first class?”
What kind of dickwad repeats this unsubstantiated claims ?
Ah, I didn’t know about the compulsory rally attendance. That’s probably a bit stickier.
BW
I saw that the huge amount of extra power needed to run AI should boost the green energy market in Australia, and obviously rest of the world. AI uses more than ten times as much power if you compare a ChatGPT search to a Google search.
“But you have to admit that his carefully-cultivated image of an ordinary sort of bloke who grew up in social housing and loves the Rabbitohs has become somewhat tarnished in recent months. And that this has coincided with some questions arising aboout his political judgement. He hasn’t had a very good year at all.”
And you haven’t missed an opportunity to convolute any number of contrived pieces of nonsense that adds milage to your preferred bias.
fess
Has to be said I haven’t been watching too much. I thought it was funny that the world was more surprised to see Melanie than Elon Musk on stage with him.
Former President Donald Trump’s plans would bring about economic ruin and hardship for millions of Americans, wrote Peter Harrell of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
At particular issue is Trump’s plan to enact sweeping tariffs on imported goods across the board — something that has been widely panned by economists as a disastrous idea — and perhaps to even use these tariffs to replace the revenue from income taxes outright.
Tariffs aren’t always a bad idea, argued Harrell in The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, one of the largest papers for the battleground state of Georgia. The Biden administration has enacted some against Chinese automobiles out of fear of unfair trade practices. “But that is not what Trump is talking about,” he said. “Only 15% of all American imports come from China. The other 85% that Trump says he plans to tax comes from the rest of the world — including close American allies. Many of these goods the United States has no choice but to import: The United States simply doesn’t grow much coffee. Under Trump, the price of your morning cup will go up.” “Imports are not a boogeyman,” Harrell continued. As one example, “Many medicines we rely on were invented in Europe. Though European companies can make some of them here, the United States is going to have to keep importing others. Trump’s planned 10%, 20% or 60% tariffs — he proposes a different rate depending on the interview — will raise food and drug costs. Indeed, economists have found that Trump’s tariff plans will cost families between $2,600 and $4,000 per year.”
meher babasays:
Tuesday, October 29, 2024 at 9:10 am
But you have to admit that his carefully-cultivated image of an ordinary sort of bloke who grew up in social housing and loves the Rabbitohs has become somewhat tarnished in recent months.
_____________________
Somewhat tarnished ?
It’s as dead as a dodo.
Good luck using that as a selling point at the next election.
Everyone will just laugh at him.
Boerwar @ #52 Tuesday, October 29th, 2024 – 9:13 am
Exactly what I was going to say, Boerwar. Australia, if the Albanese government’s policy of standing up Rare Earth Refining is consolidated, will provide the chink in the dam wall that could weaken China’s attempt to control the flow of Rare Earths out of China to the rest of the world to use in their own manufacturing. We can take their place. Which would further weaken China’s policy to vertically integrate the future tech market. This is where the EU can make demands of their own of China. That is, if China wants the EU market open for their EVs then China’s market needs to return to the time when there was free and open competition for the Chinese people to purchase the car they want to drive, be that Chinese or European, and hopefully American if Harris wins because there will be a burgeoning American EV market coming on line as well.
One wonders why the Coalition are so against this policy?
Everybody loves the shadow cabinet, that’s why when Albo says “shadow cabinet does it too” all is forgiven
‘Diogenes says:
Tuesday, October 29, 2024 at 9:18 am
BW
I saw that the huge amount of extra power needed to run AI should boost the green energy market in Australia, and obviously rest of the world. AI uses more than ten times as much power if you compare a ChatGPT search to a Google search.’
========================
The Tech Lords are coming.
They are the descendants of the mediaeval robber barons who plunked a castle next to a bridge and creamed the traffic coming and going with a nasty ‘Or else’.
The historical trend of the decline of power of the nation state is, IMO, accelerating.
https://www.iea.org/commentaries/what-the-data-centre-and-ai-boom-could-mean-for-the-energy-sector
goll @ #57 Tuesday, October 29th, 2024 – 9:19 am
Yep. I think it’s called Concern Trolling.
C@t
We are a mouse among elephants.
Geoffrey Epstein @ #62 Tuesday, October 29th, 2024 – 9:23 am
Obviously you have been blind to the derision that Sussan Ley and Angus Taylor attract on a routine basis. To name just a couple.
Boerwar @ #65 Tuesday, October 29th, 2024 – 9:24 am
Elephants are afraid of mice.
Diogenessays:
Tuesday, October 29, 2024 at 9:14 am
“Who is doing all the leaking against Albo?”
Those wishing to leak are queued around the corner but only one of the multitude of leakers has had his finish bonus reduced after review.
Mr Joe Aston confidently publicised this ground breaking unknown piece of information supposedly between a CEO and a PM as a guess? Unlikely !
“ RedBridge Group… also finds Anthony Albanese on 34% approval and 53% disapproval; Peter Dutton on 39% and 42%”
So Dutton is now more popular than Albanese. Considering how unlikeable Dutton is, I’m surprised some here don’t see this as a problem. Regarding the upgrades – the ‘they all do it’ and ‘double standards’ excuses put up by Albanese acolytes isn’t going to cut it. The citizens aren’t stupid and they can see through bullshit.
The problem Albanese has with these excuses is it wasn’t the Liberals who ran with ‘single mother public housing upbringing’ narrative. There’s a big difference between ‘poor boy makes good’ and being best mates with crude misogynist Kyle Sandilands ($40 million net worth and a new $15 million a year ten year contract) and union busting illegal worker sacking Alan Joyce ($150 million for 15 years of wrecking Qantas). Albanese just loves having rich mates and just doesn’t seem to care what awful human beings they are.
And add this to his ‘no one left behind’ bullshit, while refusing to put up the dole for the unemployed living in abject poverty during a cost of living crisis . And then there was the brain dead idea to buy a $4 million dollar mansion months out from an election during an affordable housing crisis.
Albanese is a hypocrite and a class traitor. He’s also a shit Prime Minister.
A possible reason for the beatup on Albo’s business class flights: the Coalition’s nuclear policy is looking more and more fraudulent by the day, and they need a dead cat to chuck to the media.
https://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/you-couldn-t-make-this-up-expert-pans-ontario-nuclear-option-20241028-p5klx1.html
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2024/oct/24/peter-dutton-nuclear-plant-sites-issues
‘C@tmomma says:
Tuesday, October 29, 2024 at 9:25 am
Boerwar @ #65 Tuesday, October 29th, 2024 – 9:24 am
C@t
We are a mouse among elephants.
Elephants are afraid of mice.’
==============
Mice would be wise to know that elephants are not afraid of mice.
‘Eddy says:
Tuesday, October 29, 2024 at 9:35 am
“ RedBridge Group… also finds Anthony Albanese on 34% approval and 53% disapproval; Peter Dutton on 39% and 42%”
So Dutton is now more popular than Albanese. Considering how unlikeable Dutton is, I’m surprised some here don’t see this as a problem. Regarding the upgrades – the ‘they all do it’ and ‘double standards’ excuses put up by Albanese acolytes isn’t going to cut it. The citizens aren’t stupid and they can see through bullshit.
The problem Albanese has with these excuses is it wasn’t the Liberals who ran with ‘single mother public housing upbringing’ narrative. There’s a big difference between ‘poor boy makes good’ and being best mates with crude misogynist Kyle Sandilands ($40 million net worth and a new $15 million a year ten year contract) and union busting illegal worker sacking Alan Joyce ($150 million for 15 years of wrecking Qantas). Albanese just loves having rich mates and just doesn’t seem to care what awful human beings they are.
And add this to his ‘no one left behind’ bullshit, while refusing to put up the dole for the unemployed living in abject poverty during a cost of living crisis . And then there was the brain dead idea to buy a $4 million dollar mansion months out from an election during an affordable housing crisis.
Albanese is a hypocrite and a class traitor. He’s also a shit Prime Minister.’
=======================
The usual drive by spray by a Mouth Almighty fan.
The 27% wage increase for the mostly female workers in the Aged Care industry says you are wrong. Rising real wages say you are wrong. Over a million new jobs says you are wrong. A closing gender pay gap says you are wrong.
But all you are interested in is your routine anti-Labor slag.
MB
Dutts is still in parliament as are some of his shadowy ministers.
Two new clean energy projects to be announced today by the first and only prime minister to have delivered substantial climate action.
In the regions, of course.
C@t
I hope you are right!
However, the fact that Trump has a real chance at winning the presidency doesn’t fill me with much hope.
Israel is now being criticized for unnecessary killing of civilians AND for warning civilians to move because it is going to bomb something or other.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/28/once-a-refuge-southern-lebanese-city-of-tyre-empties-as-airstrikes-rain-down
The anti-women’s freedom mob are deeply embedded in the Right and in the Coalition: Price – the once and future prime minister, Joyce the once and past deputy prime minister included.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2024/oct/29/clean-energy-renewables-solar-thermal-house-prices-property-market-victoria-nsw-e-scooters-qld-election-cost-of-living
My comments about Albo’s deteriorating image are neither anti-Labor nor concern trolling. They are just my take on what I am seeing in the media.
Albo’s two main positives as a party leader were
1) a reputation for being politically savvy; and
2) his image as an ordinary sort of a bloke, as opposed, for instance, to the seemingly smug and entitled Shorten, evangelical used car salesman ScoMo and, further back, the silvertail Turnbull and the just plain weird Abbott.
1) has been damaged by the Voice catastrophe and then other inept stuff like the immigration stuff-ups earlier this year and the kerfuffle about the LGBT+ Census questions. And the continuing struggle to find a stable position on the Middle East hasn’t helped either.
And now 2) has taken a beating through the Chairman’s Lounge membership for Albo junior, his $4.3 million house purchase and now this stuff about upgrades.
All political leaders stumble onto land mines from time to time, and their best defence is to point to the achievements of their governments. Boerwar is on the right track here with his listicles (is that something mice do, or elephants do? I can’t quite work that out). Anyway, as I’ve long said, it’s policy that matters far more than personalities.
The quality of the Albanese Government’s policies has been mixed. But they should have enough achievements to point towards to put up a reasonable case for being given a second term by the voters (albeit almost certainly as a minority government). They’re not great salesman, and the steady tarnishing of Albo’s image doesn’t help. But, IMO, a change in leader wouldn’t help much either: particularly to Chalmers, who I think comes across as more than a bit of a smarta__e.
It sometimes happens in politics that a party is stuck with a mediocre leader and must somehow try to make the best of things. That’s where Federal Labor is now. They’ve got one major asset that they will undoubtedly use: Peter Dutton. He looks scary and can easily be portrayed as being too much of a risk. The “don’t vote for him, he’s too much of a risk” strategy is what got PJK over the line against Hewson in 1993, even though the voters never much liked PJK.
So, IMO, that’s the way out of this for Labor. As long as there isn’t too much more stuff to come out about Albo getting freebies from business mates.
For all the narratives people like to make up, the main thing doing for Albo’s popularity it interest rates plus the perception he isn’t doing anything about them, and the test of this is what happens if and when rate cuts happen.
Edit – I think meher’s analysis above is fair.
Re the Albo upgrades stuff, I’d say that Albanese is being singled out because he’s a Labor Prime Minster. I don’t say that to defend him, more to make the point that Labor MPs are usually judged in the media to a higher standard than Coalition ones (we are seeing the same dynamic in the US re Harris v Trump), but anyone who has spend any time with MPs of any stripe will know how entitled they think they are to this sort of booty. This is not to defend it; it’s a bad look for Albo, and he should have been smart and politically astute enough to know that it’s a bad look. But a bit like the house story, I doubt it will change many votes – those inclined to support will defend it, those inclined to to oppose him will criticise, and the vast majority probably won’t even notice that it’s a thing. We often forget on this site that most people pay no attention whatsoever to the daily to-and-fro of politics.
As far as polling goes, it still looks like nothing much has changed, with the situation as it has been for much of 2024: 50/50 2P, on the back of an ALP primary in low 30s, a Coalition in the mid-high 30s, the Greens at their standard 12%, and the 20% or so going to everyone else. This suggests something like a 2% swing is on the cards right now, which on paper would see Labor losing a net 4 seats.
MB
It is not that hard.
The print MSM is either Murdoch or The Guardian.
Murdoch we know. Dutton good; Albanese bad. Always. Every single day.
The Guardian has been anti-Labor since day one of the Albanese Government.
It is a Greens/Teals shit sheet.
Frankly, I don’t care if Tory MPs are doing the same. My problem is that a Labor PM, a champion of the left no less , would go cap in hand to that right wing grub Joyce, hoping for preferential treatment. It is indicative of the guy’s mind set. He is no friend of the workers that’s for sure.
Albanese is the first and only federal prime minister to put in place the legislative, regulatory and program framework to get us to Zero Net Fifty.
The settings can all be tweaked, improved and built on.
All the rest pales into insignificance.
Dutton will kill all that stone dead. His Coalition partners are already talking about capping renewables. Nuclear power is the Great Unicorn.
The Greens? The thirteen per centers? They delayed all of Albanese’s climate actions.
They would have blocked it but did not want to listen to another ten years of people rightly blaming for again blocking a Labor Government from initiating climate action.
Whatever happens from here, Albanese will be remembered for being THE prime minister to get things moving in the climate action fight.
‘clem attlee says:
Tuesday, October 29, 2024 at 10:04 am
Frankly, I don’t care if Tory MPs are doing the same. …’
================
Thank you for your frank opinion. We were all holding our breath, waiting, waiting, waiting… and sure enough, as day follows night, you couldn’t care if Tory MPs are doing the same.
So being an opportunistic grub is okay then? Soliciting Joyce is not a problem?
Since we are on the aviation topic… so giving Rolls Royce engines to Stalin is OK, then?
Boerwar says:
Tuesday, October 29, 2024 at 10:08 am
Albanese is the first and only federal prime minister to put in place the legislative, regulatory and program framework to get us to Zero Net Fifty.
The settings can all be tweaked, improved and built on.
All the rest pales into insignificance.
…’
================
Dutton will destroy the lot. The Greens? Check your nearest CFMEU/Bikies outlet?
meher baba @ #49 Tuesday, October 29th, 2024 – 9:10 am
Indeed. Another difference is getting the Chairman’s Lounge membership for his son. That seems to be unique.
And the final difference of course is that these were not simply upgrades “when available”. According to the article, these “upgrades” were personally guaranteed by Joyce, who was the only one who could authorize that. In other words, Albo got precedence even over other members of the Chairman’s Lounge. If Albo wanted his upgrade, one of them might have been bumped down to business class. Quelle horreor!
I am glad someone here seems to understand the gravity of these accusations, and how inappropriate it was for a Transport Minister in charge of regulating airlines to solicit them.
We need to find out more.
Clem Atlee
“Frankly, I don’t care if Tory MPs are doing the same. My problem is that a Labor PM, a champion of the left no less , would go cap in hand to that right wing grub Joyce, hoping for preferential treatment. It is indicative of the guy’s mind set. He is no friend of the workers that’s for sure.”
Except that you don’t know that’s what happened.
When your nation has been bankrupted saving the free world, then yes it is. The engines were obsolete by the time the Soviets got them anyway. Good ‘ole Stalinist Borewar, ‘my leader right or wrong.’ There is just no nuance with you is there? Ha, ha!
Meher, how far we have come in 30 months. To think Albo is more unpopular than Dutton.
It is too be hoped it is a Labor minority government with teals support (to be determined). It would be an absolute disaster if it was a truly hung parly (12-18 months of chaos before fresh elections) or even worse a minority Liberal Government of which there is scant evidence of any plan for government.
Boerwarsays:
Tuesday, October 29, 2024 at 9:51 am
Two new clean energy projects to be announced today by the first and only prime minister to have delivered substantial climate action.
In the regions, of course.
_____________________
What’s the latest in Broken Hill ?
Solar power had to be turned off yesterday.
“Essential Energy is asking customers with solar panels to switch off their solar supply main switch to help keep the network stable. Customers should only do this if they know how to and can do it safely”
Good ‘ole Bore, approves of our Labor hero, Albanese sucking up to the union busting Joyce. Wow what a great labour relations record that guy had.
Player One,
[We need to find out more.]
You finally bullseyed !
Goll wrote, “Except that you don’t know that’s what happened.”
Has the working class hero denied it? Has he launched defamation proceedings? That is a pretty good indication.
Meanwhile, in the rest of Australia some will be giving thought to the job of organising the Melbourne Cup sweeps.
For some it will be an upgrade, others a freedom!
So, Golly, if he does confirm it. You will be fine with it will you?
clem attleesays:
Tuesday, October 29, 2024 at 10:23 am
[Goll wrote, “Except that you don’t know that’s what happened.”]
[Has the working class hero denied it? Has he launched defamation proceedings? That is a pretty good indication.]
That’s a pretty good indication “you’re full of it”
meher baba, I agree with your 9:57 post.
‘Taylormade says:
Tuesday, October 29, 2024 at 10:20 am
Boerwarsays:
Tuesday, October 29, 2024 at 9:51 am
Two new clean energy projects to be announced today by the first and only prime minister to have delivered substantial climate action.
In the regions, of course.
_____________________
What’s the latest in Broken Hill ?
….’
—————
Fossil fuel generators failed. Why do you ask?